Tesla’s stock (TSLA) has received a nice boost today from one of its biggest cheerleaders on Wall Street, and it’s based on the company achieving a “beyond an automaker” scenario.
For years, Tesla investors have pushed the argument that Tesla is more than an auto company.
That’s technically true. The company is also big in the energy space and it is making advancements in AI and other spaces.
However, the financials are almost completely driven by its auto business so far.
Therefore, the idea hasn’t been super popular on Wall Street.
Adam Jonas, who covers Tesla for Morgan Stanley, has been among the major Wall Street analysts most open to start accounting for other Tesla businesses in the valuation.
In a new note to clients today, the analysts brought the idea back into focus:
Many investors still debate the merits of Tesla as ‘more than an auto company.’ In our opinion, Tesla is definitely an auto company. It is also an AI company. Think ‘and’ not ‘or.’
To illustrate his point, Jonas explained that only 33% of his $380 price target for Tesla is linked to the automotive business:
In our opinion, Tesla is far more than an auto company. Of our $380 price target, our valuation of the ‘core’ auto business is $86/share, leaving 77% of our target derived by Network Services, Mobility, 3rd-party battery/FSD licensing, Energy and Insurance. We receive significant pushback from our clients for including non-auto revenue streams in our valuation. Our OW thesis is highly dependent upon these business lines becoming far greater drivers of earnings with clear milestones/proof-points backed by accompanying financial disclosures.
Morgan Stanley also notes that the $380 price target is only that average case and the firm also has a $550 bull case and $120 bear case.
Electrek’s Take
I understand Morgan Stanley getting pushback on that considering just how Tesla’s current share price is overwhelmingly driven by its auto business.
But I think its energy business is going to be massive.
Not because of solar deployment or even energy storage deployment, which is going to be huge too, but because of its energy software like virtual power plants and Tesla Electric.
I think those are going to become huge businesses as Tesla onboards more people through deployments of Powerwalls, gateways, and solar inverters, which can control the loads.
However, I think the rest, like AI, insurance, etc. is up for debate.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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In a move that’s expected to play a crucial role in supporting the transition to medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles, $100 million of the Biden Administration’s last-minute $635M payout is headed to Illinois to help build out an electric truck charging corridor.
Tesla is understood to have requested fully 40% of the $100MM award, with Prologis requesting $60 million, Gage Zero requesting $16 million, and Pilot requesting $10 million.
The project will facilitate the construction of 345 electric truck charging ports and pull-through truck charging stalls across 14 sites throughout Illinois, with each of the awarded companies putting up some of its own money to support the infrastructure buildout as well. To that end, Prologis is expected to invest $18 million, Tesla $19 million, Gage Zero $4 million, and Pilot travel stations committing $2.5 million.
“Most of the development has happened on the coasts, and there’s nothing really happening in the Midwest, which is not great for long-haul trucking,” said Megha Lakhchaura, Illinois’ state EV officer. “We think that this hub could be of national importance.”
The California Air Resource Board (CARB) has withdrawn its request to enact the proposed Advanced Clean Fleets rule, which required fleets that are “well-suited for electrification” to reduce emissions through the phase-in of Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) and the banning of commercial diesel sales after 2035.
“Frankly, given that the Trump administration has not been publicly supportive of some of the strategies that we have deployed in these regulations, we thought it would be prudent to pull back and consider our options,” CARB chair Liane Randolph said in an interview. “The withdrawal is an important step given the uncertainty presented by the incoming administration that previously attacked California’s programs to protect public health and the climate and has said will continue to oppose those programs.”
Here’s hoping the BEVs and ZEVs have better luck next round.
Electrek’s Take
While some may celebrate the delay of the Advanced Clean Fleets rule, their celebrations will undoubtedly prove to be myopic and short-lived. The reality is that America is no longer the world leader in technology or transportation that backward organizations like the American Trucking Association believe it to be, and the fact is that delaying a transition to cleaner, more efficient technology will only put the US further behind its economic rivals in Asia and the Middle East.
Even before this Pyrrhic victory for American truck brands that have been slow to push BEVs into production, demand for diesel was at a generational low, and companies like Volvo, Renault, and Mercedes-Benz have been logging millions of electric miles on their deployed trucking fleets.
All of which is to say: if you thought it was going to be hard for American brands to catch up before, it’s going to be even harder now.
In an official announcement released at 8:15PM last night, Walmart-backed electric van company Canoo filed a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 7 of the US Bankruptcy Code and will cease operations immediately.
“We would like to thank the company’s employees for their dedication and hard work,” said Tony Aquila, Canoo CEO and one of the company’s largest investors (according to the press release). “We know that you believed in our company as we did. We are truly disappointed that things turned out as they did. We would also like to thank NASA, the Department of Defense, The United States Postal Service (‘USPS’), the State of Oklahoma and Walmart for their belief in our products and our company. This means a lot to everyone in the company.”
As a result of the chapter 7 filing, Canoo will cease operations effective immediately, 8:15PM on 17JAN2025. The next step in the company’s dissolution will see a court-appointed trustee manage the liquidation of the company’s remaining assets.
Electrek’s Take
Rumors fueled by outspoken former employees of Canoo began circling late last year, with furloughed employees urging Oklahoma state leaders to “hold the electric vehicle company accountable” after it shuttered the OK production line that had received more than $100 million in state incentives.
The same employee claims that the company was being wildly mismanaged, and that what few Canoo vehicles the company said it had built in the Oklahoma plant were actually built in Texas, and that no vehicles were actually ever built in OK. “Nothing was functioning,” the unnamed employee said, speaking to local news channel KFOR. “There was no, there was not one robotics line that actually worked to fabricate a part.”
You could argue that the employees should also be held accountable for happily collecting paychecks without actually producing anything this whole time, but that’s a conversation for another day. For now, I’ll be mourning the loss of what could have been a fun little domestic off-roader, and hoping Canoo’s employees find a soft landing and better jobs elsewhere.