Is it time to start taking Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez seriously in the Heisman Trophy conversation?

Rodriguez is putting together a historic season for linebacker production while leading a defense that moved back into the No. 1 spot in this week’s updated stop rate standings, following a massive victory over BYU in a top-10 showdown.

What is stop rate? It’s a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense’s effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today’s faster-tempo game.

Stop rate is not an advanced stat and is no substitute for Bill Connelly’s SP+, ESPN’s FPI or other more comprehensive metrics. It’s merely a different method for evaluating success on defense against FBS opponents. Here’s the current leaderboard entering Week 12:

The Red Raiders are back on top this week with a stop rate of 82.8% against FBS opponents after getting stops on 11 of 12 drives against BYU on Saturday. In their biggest game yet with their Big 12 title game hopes on the line, Texas Tech’s defense gave up zero points through three quarters for the fifth time this year.

Rodriguez was terrific as always, earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week honors for the third time this season after recording 14 tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery against the then-No. 7 Cougars. Afterward, coach Joey McGuire argued there’s nobody more deserving of being in the Heisman race.

“Guys, the Heisman is given to the best football player,” McGuire reminded reporters. “It’s not given to the best quarterback; they have awards for that.”

Rodriguez has compiled 91 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, an FBS-high seven forced fumbles, three interceptions, five pass breakups and one defensive touchdown through 10 games. He’s among the top 10 nationally in solo tackles (49). He’s leading the No. 1 run defense in college football. And he’s the No. 1 linebacker in Pro Football Focus grading this season, with the highest scores in both run defense and pass coverage at his position.

According to ESPN Research, no other FBS linebacker has compiled 90 tackles, seven forced fumbles and three interceptions in a single season over the past 20 years.

That includes Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o, who finished with 113 tackles, seven picks and zero forced fumbles as the Heisman runner-up in 2012. Rodriguez’s season stat line is going to end up looking quite similar, if not a little better. But will it be enough to contend with Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson and the top QBs in the country?

One stat to keep an eye on: The FBS single-season record is 10 forced fumbles by Louisville’s Elvis Dumervil in 2005. Rodriguez has 13 in his career, so he’s also four away from breaking the FBS career record of 16 held by Buffalo’s Khalil Mack.

Here are a few more updates to note regarding this week’s stop rate standings:

• The top 10 defenses in stop rate so far this season if you filter out all nonconference games: Toledo (83.1%), Texas Tech (82.1%), Ohio State (81.1%), San Diego State (81%), SMU (76.3%), Utah (76.1%), Western Michigan (75.9%), Iowa (75.8%), James Madison (75.7%) and Indiana (75.3%). SMU ranked 74th in stop rate at the end of September and has really turned things around in ACC play.

• San Diego State’s defense climbed to No. 2 in stop rate last week but had a tough outing on Saturday in a 38-6 road loss at Hawaii. The Aztecs did pitch a shutout in the second half, but Hawaii scored on a kickoff return touchdown and a pick-six in the third quarter to put the game away. The Aztecs didn’t drop much, though, and are No. 3 this week.

• Vanderbilt dropped from 90th to 100th in stop rate at 56% following its wild 45-38 overtime win over Auburn. It’s just another testament to the program-changing greatness of quarterback Diego Pavia. The Commodores’ defense currently ranks 14th in the SEC in stop rate (52.6%) during conference play, but that hasn’t stopped Pavia from leading this squad on an 8-2 run to CFP contention.

• Oregon State’s defense got stops on 10 of 11 drives against Sam Houston and lost! The Beavers gave up two special teams touchdowns in a 21-17 loss to the no-longer-winless Bearkats. That’s about as improbable as it gets. No other defense has achieved stops on 85% of drives or better and lost this season.

Note: All data is courtesy of ESPN Research. Games against FCS opponents and end-of-half drives in which the opponent took a knee or ran out the clock were filtered out.

Quality always emerges eventually. And with just three regular-season Saturdays (plus Championship Week) to go, we have a pretty good idea of this year’s hierarchy. Ohio State redshirt freshman Julian Sayin has completed more than 80% of his passes during a perfect 9-0 start. After Kurtis Rourke led Indiana to the CFP as a one-year transfer last season, Fernando Mendoza has topped him as this year’s one-year guy. The gutsiest veterans in the sport, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, have led their teams to unforeseen heights. Gunner Stockton, the most Georgia of Georgia quarterbacks, has been increasingly stellar.

A month into the season, I ranked every power conference starting quarterback, and it probably isn’t a surprise that the list has changed pretty significantly after six more weeks of play. Who has improved the most (besides Sayin)? Whose production has trailed off? Let’s rank all 68 (or so) once again!

(Note: References to rushing yards in stat lines below do not include sack yardage.)

Last Rank: 11 | Total QBR: 91.1 | Pass Yds: 2,491 | Rush Yds (no sack): 56 | Total TDs: 24

It’s always hard to grade the guys who have the best supporting cast. Alabama’s Mac Jones produced the best Total QBR of the decade in 2020 but lost the Heisman vote to one of his teammates, and if star receiver Jeremiah Smith continues to produce as he has of late (past two games: 16 catches, 260 yards, three touchdowns) he might prevent Sayin from winning the award as well. But as Ohio State has opened up the playbook and asked more of Sayin, he has responded with near perfection. He’s first in the nation in Total QBR, completion rate (80.9%) and success rate* (62.0%)

(Success rate: The percentage of plays gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)

Even with Smith and other star-caliber players at his disposal, his accuracy is incredible. This pass placement map has about as tight a radius as you’ll ever see, even if some away-from-the-body catches also prove the awesomeness of his receivers.

Last Rank: 29 | Total QBR: 84.2 | Pass Yds: 1,888 | Rush Yds (no sack): 787 | Total TDs: 23

Since the last list came out on Oct. 1, King has, in four games, thrown for 282.5 yards per game, averaging 9.6 yards per dropback (first nationally) with a 75.7% completion rate (third) and 57.9% success rate (second). He has also averaged 97.3 non-sack rushing yards per game (fourth among non-option quarterbacks). Projected over a full 13 games, that’s a 3,600-1,200 pace. Good gracious.

Despite an endless number of injuries through the years — and despite his eyes hinting at a certain level of pain I have never experienced after every single tackle he takes — King is doing everything he possibly can to drag Tech to the ACC title and CFP, and he seems to be getting better in the process.

Last Rank: 4 | Total QBR: 88.1 | Pass Yds: 2,342 | Rush Yds (no sack): 304 | Total TDs: 31

I made it clear on Sunday that I thought Sayin should be the Heisman betting favorite instead of Mendoza, but that doesn’t mean Mendoza hasn’t been awesome. He has thrown a pick in five of his past six games, and the fourth-quarter INT against Penn State nearly proved costly, but despite facing loads of pressure for the first time all year, he also engineered a perfect, game-winning TD drive. He’s fourth nationally in Total QBR and first in passing touchdowns. He’s great.

Last Rank: 2 | Total QBR: 86.1 | Pass Yds: 2,440 | Rush Yds (no sack): 691 | Total TDs: 28

After all he has done for Vandy over the past couple of years, Pavia might have played his best game on Saturday. With the Commodores’ defense getting lit up by Auburn, Pavia threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 114 more yards and another score. Like King, when he has to put the team on his shoulders, he looks great doing it.

Last Rank: 1 | Total QBR: 90.7 | Pass Yds: 2,614 | Rush Yds (no sack): 175 | Total TDs: 23

He’s still very good, and USC still ranks first in offensive SP+, but the mistakes have added up a bit. In his past five games, Maiava has thrown six interceptions, and he went a combined 31-for-65 with three picks against Notre Dame and Nebraska before rebounding with a nice performance against Northwestern last Saturday. His next two opponents rank sixth (Iowa) and second (Oregon) in defensive SP+, too.

Last Rank: 20 | Total QBR: 89.4 | Pass Yds: 2,040 | Rush Yds (no sack): 350 | Total TDs: 22

At this point, the only thing he’s missing is a deep ball (or someone to catch one). He’s third in Total QBR, he has thrown just two picks, and on passes thrown under 15 yards downfield his completion rate is 79% (fifth). He’s at only 36% (108th) on longer passes, however, and Georgia lacks in the big-play department. Still, the Bulldogs are efficient, and in part because of Stockton’s legs, they’re nearly perfect in the red zone.

Last Rank: 7 | Total QBR: 83.3 | Pass Yds: 2,275 | Rush Yds (no sack): 104 | Total TDs: 21

His job has gotten easier now that star running back Jeremiyah Love has fully checked into the season (Love’s past three games: 552 yards from scrimmage), but Carr is fourth nationally in yards per dropback and eighth in success rate, and while it’s concerning that (a) he has played against only three top-50 defenses (per SP+) and (b) he wasn’t very good against two, Total QBR is still opponent adjusted, and he’s 10th in that.

Last Rank: 3 | Total QBR: 84.3 | Pass Yds: 2,356 | Rush Yds (no sack): 465 | Total TDs: 19

To make the CFP, Ole Miss just had to go and grab a guy with playoff experience. Easy! Chambliss, the Ferris State transfer and Division II champ, has cooled off since his nearly perfect start, and his past four games against FBS opponents have produced only 7.3 yards per dropback and 4.6 yards per carry (no sacks). But Ole Miss has topped 30 points in four of his five SEC starts, and he’s meeting the moment.

Last Rank: 6 | Total QBR: 80.6 | Pass Yds: 2,064 | Rush Yds (no sack): 470 | Total TDs: 29

It’s hard to grade a guy like Sorsby, who has been just about the best QB in the country in seven wins (67% completion rate, 87.8 Total QBR) and just about the worst in two losses (41% completion rate, 43.7 Total QBR). Regardless, if Good Brendan shows up over the next three weeks, the Bearcats could still be factors in the Big 12 race.

Last Rank: 14 | Total QBR: 86.3 | Pass Yds: 2,372 | Rush Yds (no sack): 815 | Total TDs: 25

For two seasons in Fayetteville, Green has simultaneously been a top-five quarterback and a borderline top-50 guy. It almost varies by the play. But even with the random disasters, he’s one of the scarier dual threats in the country, and he’s far more of a reason why Arkansas has stayed within one score of three ranked teams (including A&M and Ole Miss) than he was a reason why they lost all three.

Last Rank: 8 | Total QBR: 81.3 | Pass Yds: 2,461 | Rush Yds (no sack): 186 | Total TDs: 23

Returns have diminished for Simpson and the Tide’s offense, which has topped 30 points just once in its past six games; in fact, he has topped 8.0 yards per dropback only twice in his past six games as well.

Still, without much of a run game to lean on, Simpson has been excellent in the red zone (Bama is 15th nationally in red zone TD rate), and he has thrown just one pick in 296 passes. Bama is mastering the art of gaining all the right yards.

Last Rank: 26 | Total QBR: 78.2 | Pass Yds: 2,193 | Rush Yds (no sack): 429 | Total TDs: 25

Reed pilots a beautifully spaced offense, with transfers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver frequently stretching defenses horizontally and tight ends Theo Melin Öhrström and Nate Boerkircher open over the middle if opponents overcompensate. A&M ranks just 89th in success rate on passing downs, but since he never allows the Aggies to actually fall off schedule, that hasn’t been much of an issue.

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Last Rank: 17 | Total QBR: 76.1 | Pass Yds: 2,737 | Rush Yds (no sack): 177 | Total TDs: 23

Tennessee went to the CFP on the power of great defense (sixth in defensive SP+) last season, so it seemed like Aguilar was walking into a pretty decent situation. The Vols’ defense has completely collapsed — 56th in defensive SP+, 95th in points allowed per drive — but the team is still 6-3 and ranked because Aguilar has keyed an offensive resurgence. He could end up with 4,000 passing yards.

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Last Rank: 9 | Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 2,251 | Rush Yds (no sack): 655 | Total TDs: 19

Williams is a second-year sophomore and first-year starter with massive upside and lots of things to learn. And either everything has worked or nothing has worked in 2025.

• Williams in six wins: 89.0 Total QBR, 9.3 yards per dropback, 90.2 rushing yards per game (non-sack)

• Williams in three losses: 46.6 Total QBR, 4.4 yards per dropback, 34.7 rushing yards per game

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Last Rank: 22 | Total QBR: 77.9 | Pass Yds: 2,794 | Rush Yds (no sack): 67 | Total TDs: 24

Like Aguilar, Mensah thought he was coming to play for one team and instead landed with something far different. Duke won nine games with an offense that ranked 71st in SP+ last season; in 2025, with Mensah throwing for over 300 yards per game, the Blue Devils’ offense is up to 18th. And they’re only 5-4 because the defense has disintegrated.

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Last Rank: 15 | Total QBR: 84.6 | Pass Yds: 2,255 | Rush Yds (no sack): 275 | Total TDs: 22

He couldn’t do any damage in easy losses to Indiana and Ohio State, and Illinois couldn’t make as much of a playoff push as hoped in 2025. But Altmyer is still seventh in Total QBR, and he should still finish in the Illini’s top five in career passing yardage, and second in career TD passes, in under three full seasons. Pretty good work.

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Last Rank: 5 | Total QBR: 69.4 | Pass Yds: 1,884 | Rush Yds (no sack): 240 | Total TDs: 19

He was nearly perfect against a dire Rutgers defense in Week 8, but even including that, Moore’s past five games have seen massive regression after a nearly perfect start.

• First four games: 85.7 Total QBR, 9.8 yards per dropback, 1.1% interception rate, 1.0% sack rate, 50.8 points per game

• Past five games: 58.9 Total QBR, 6.4 yards per dropback, 3.1% interception rate, 5.8% sack rate, 26.4 points per game

Luckily, Oregon’s defense is elite (it hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in regulation all season), and the Ducks can play ball control with a good run game.

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Last Rank: 21 | Total QBR: 75.8 | Pass Yds: 2,780 | Rush Yds (no sack): 120 | Total TDs: 28

The volume shooter of 2025, Robertson is the only P4 quarterback throwing over 40 passes per game. And with a mediocre run game and mostly disappointing defense, Robertson’s right arm has basically had to carry Baylor to a winning record — when his Total QBR tops 75.0 the Bears win, and when it doesn’t they lose. It’s a burden, but he has played well.

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Last Rank: 34 | Total QBR: 83.0 | Pass Yds: 1,588 | Rush Yds (no sack): 552 | Total TDs: 20

Utah ranked 96th in offensive SP+ last season; the combination of Dampier and coordinator Jason Beck has led a surge all the way to 19th. Dampier is second on the team in rushing yards, and while there aren’t many big plays in the passing game, he has been crisp and efficient. (And because backup Byrd Ficklin was exciting in his lone start, Utah can run Dampier without fear of injury.)

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Last Rank: 32 | Total QBR: 81.4 | Pass Yds: 2,411 | Rush Yds (no sack): 227 | Total TDs: 23

NC State has had only one top-40 offense, per SP+, since 2018, but the Wolfpack are charging toward a second because of Bailey. Like Robertson, he has had to be brilliant to drag the Pack to wins — they’re 5-0 when his Total QBR is above 85.0 and 0-4 when it isn’t — but his 340-yard, two-touchdown performance in the 48-36 upset of King’s Georgia Tech was absolutely dynamite.

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Last Rank: 10 | Total QBR: 72.9 | Pass Yds: 2,190 | Rush Yds (no sack): 504 | Total TDs: 24

A career that began during the 2020 COVID season will soon end with Daniels No. 2 on Kansas’ passing yardage and touchdown lists, behind only Todd Reesing. Although he never has gotten enough help from his defense (average defensive SP+ ranking in his time: 89.0), he’s wrapping up the year playing clean ball: He has thrown only three interceptions, and the Jayhawks are 26th in offensive success rate.

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Last Rank: 28 | Total QBR: 68.1 | Pass Yds: 1,969 | Rush Yds (no sack): 62 | Total TDs: 16

He makes me nervous and takes a lot of hits (and has missed time with multiple injuries because of it), but there’s no question that Morton has taken a solid step forward this year, improving to career highs in Total QBR, completion rate (65.7%), yards per completion (13.9) and most of the other stats by which we judge QBs.

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Last Rank: 23 | Total QBR: 72.7 | Pass Yds: 2,690 | Rush Yds (no sack): 110 | Total TDs: 25

TCU can’t run the ball, and its offensive production has trailed off in the past couple of games, but not much of that is Hoover’s fault. (Granted, his two picks against Iowa State didn’t help.) His Total QBR has topped 75.0 in six of nine starts, and he’s top 10 nationally in passing yards (298.9) and touchdowns (2.6) per game.

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Last Rank: 39 | Total QBR: 77.1 | Pass Yds: 1,881 | Rush Yds (no sack): 464 | Total TDs: 21

Unlike many of the Big 12 QBs in this portion of the list, Bachmeier has gotten help from both his defense and run game, and he couldn’t make enough happen at Texas Tech last week, with career lows in success rate (30.6%) and yards per dropback (5.0). BYU’s playoff hopes are still solid despite putting a true freshman in charge of the offense, and he’s only going to get better from here.

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Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 71.0 | Pass Yds: 1,547 | Rush Yds (no sack): 242 | Total TDs: 13

He was the No. 48 pocket passer recruit in the class of 2025, with offers primarily from MAC schools, but Heintschel has been the most transformative freshman QB in the country: Pitt is 5-0 and has averaged 40 points per game since sticking him in the lineup. He scrambles well, and he has averaged at least 13 yards per completion in three starts. He has been exactly the shot in the arm the Panthers needed.

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Last Rank: 18 | Total QBR: 78.1 | Pass Yds: 2,194 | Rush Yds (no sack): 83 | Total TDs: 16

I’ve always appreciated Beck’s willingness to make mistakes. He makes tough throws and completes a lot of them (he’s behind only Sayin with his 73% completion rate), but the downside, of course, is the interceptions: He has thrown six in two Miami losses (and only three in seven wins). The Hurricanes still have solid odds of reaching 10-2 and, potentially, the CFP, though.

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Last Rank: 47 | Total QBR: 68.5 | Pass Yds: 1,991 | Rush Yds (no sack): 396 | Total TDs: 23

It appeared at the start of the season that Johnson was trying to play like a professional QB — not much rushing, checking to safe and easy options — to the detriment of his team. Now he’s playing like himself, taking risks and using his legs. Even with more mistakes, it has made a positive difference.

• First four games (1-3): 48.6 Total QBR, 11.1 yards per completion, 0.8% INT rate, 2.3% sack rate, 21.5 non-sack rushing yards per game

• Past five games (3-2): 80.7 Total QBR, 12.7 yards per completion, 2.1% INT rate, 3.3% sack rate, 62.0 non-sack rushing yards per game

That’s better.

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Last Rank: 54 | Total QBR: 67.9 | Pass Yds: 2,136 | Rush Yds (no sack): 186 | Total TDs: 17

It happened too late to save Clemson’s season in any major way (occasional rubbish from the defense didn’t help either), but in October, Cade Klubnik officially became Cade Klubnik again.

• First four games (1-3): 44.9 Total QBR, 60.1% completion rate, 11.2 yards per completion, 2.7% INT rate

• Past four games (3-1): 89.6 Total QBR, 77.8% completion rate, 12.5 yards per completion, 0.9% INT rate

This will always go down as a massively disappointing season, but Klubnik did show up, at least.

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Last Rank: 30 | Total QBR: 71.2 | Pass Yds: 2,705 | Rush Yds (no sack): 165 | Total TDs: 20

Per SP+ rankings, Rutgers is fielding its worst defense since 2000 but its best offense since 2007 this fall. It’s hard to blame Kaliakmanis for the Scarlet Knights’ 5-5 record, in other words, and he was prolific in two recent wins (combined: 588 yards, five TDs). With a home upset of Penn State, Rutgers could salvage bowl eligibility for the third straight year.

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Last Rank: 35 | Total QBR: 62.7 | Pass Yds: 2,810 | Rush Yds (no sack): 180 | Total TDs: 23

After a bumpy start, SMU has won five of six to entrench itself back in the ACC title race, and Jennings has been a key reason for that. He was trying to do too much early on, but he has lowered both his interception and sack rates, and even with a drop-off in explosiveness, the SMU offense is producing more and handing its defense better field position.

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Last Rank: 51 | Total QBR: 68.8 | Pass Yds: 2,200 | Rush Yds (no sack): 274 | Total TDs: 26

It’s been quite the up-and-down career for Fifita at this point, but he has had some brilliant games during Arizona’s rebound season. He has topped 370 passing yards twice, and he has produced a Total QBR of 88.6 or higher three times. Defense has been the primary driver for the Wildcats’ 6-3 start, but they’re still averaging 38.0 points per game in wins — Fifita’s doing his job.

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Last Rank: 12 | Total QBR: 68.6 | Pass Yds: 1,949 | Rush Yds (no sack): 396 | Total TDs: 14

He rushed back from a hand injury and played horribly against Texas, but he shifted back into “make all the key plays” mode in OU’s season-saving win at Tennessee, completing 12 of 16 passes and rushing for 58 yards in the second half. OU’s offense is more gritty than good, but the Sooners still have playoff hopes heading into mid-November.

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Last Rank: 16 | Total QBR: 69.2 | Pass Yds: 2,128 | Rush Yds (no sack): 428 | Total TDs: 17

Things have gone south after September, just as they did for Castellanos in 2024. But despite the Seminoles losing five of their past six, he did produce brilliance — 271 passing yards on 12 completions, plus a rushing touchdown — against an excellent Wake Forest defense just two weeks ago. There’s still time to write a rebound story in November.

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Last Rank: 46 | Total QBR: 65.9 | Pass Yds: 2,113 | Rush Yds (no sack): 503 | Total TDs: 27

He was the No. 1 pocket passer in the 2022 recruiting class, but Weigman has found his way in Houston as a dual-threat QB, averaging more than 10 non-sack rushes and 50 yards per game (he had 44 rushing yards in the fourth quarter alone in last week’s tight win over UCF). Add that to decent passing — 7.3 yards per dropback, 64.9% completion rate — and you have a QB capable of playing his part for an 8-2 team.

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Last Rank: 41 | Total QBR: 63.1 | Pass Yds: 2,123 | Rush Yds (no sack): 308 | Total TDs: 24

Saddled with a surprisingly poor run game and a shaky line (122nd in pressure rate), Manning has been swimming upstream all season. He still holds on to the ball too long despite throwing tons of behind-the-line passes, and his footwork on downfield passes still betrays him, but he was good against Vanderbilt two weeks ago, and a great November would erase a lot of early-season stigma.

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Last Rank: 13 | Total QBR: 66.6 | Pass Yds: 2,088 | Rush Yds (no sack): 303 | Total TDs: 16

Even before leaving last Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest with injury, Morris’ productivity was starting to wane — in terms of Total QBR, four of his five worst games have come in his past five games.

His status for Saturday’s huge game at Duke is uncertain — and a loss would crush UVA’s ACC title hopes — but this season has already been a spectacular life-giver for the Virginia program, and Morris played the largest possible role in that.

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Last Rank: 68 | Total QBR: 69.2 | Pass Yds: 1,544 | Rush Yds (no sack): 191 | Total TDs: 13

Kentucky has won two straight and has produced maybe its three best performances in the past four games, and Boley’s improvement has contributed to that. In his past five starts, he has produced a 79.7 Total QBR with 10 passing touchdowns, two games over 250 passing yards and solid rushing. The four-star redshirt freshman is showing his potential.

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Last Rank: 38 | Total QBR: 66.0 | Pass Yds: 1,671 | Rush Yds (no sack): 326 | Total TDs: 11

After encouraging performances against Wisconsin and Washington, Underwood has struggled of late, going a combined 21-for-39 for just 221 yards and a pick against Michigan State and Purdue. He gets plenty of help from his run game and defense, he scrambles well, and his pure arm talent is obvious, but the blue-chip freshman remains an extreme work in progress.

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Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 67.2 | Pass Yds: 538 | Rush Yds (no sack): 226 | Total TDs: 4

I thought Daniels might win the starting QB job over Jackson Arnold in the offseason, and although I was incorrect about that … maybe he should have? Granted, his first start after replacing Arnold, against Kentucky, was bad enough to get Hugh Freeze fired, but he was outstanding in leading a near upset of Vanderbilt last Saturday. Let’s see if he can build on that in the season’s final two games.

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Last Rank: 37 | Total QBR: 72.7 | Pass Yds: 1,927 | Rush Yds (no sack): 78 | Total TDs: 13

Woof. The good news for Nussmeier is that, when he was benched in favor of Michael Van Buren Jr. late against Alabama last week, nothing really improved. The bad news is that this has been an epic wasted year for the fifth-year senior and preseason All-America candidate. He has barely seemed healthy all season, and his offensive line regressed significantly.

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Last Rank: 58 | Total QBR: 65.0 | Pass Yds: 1,659 | Rush Yds (no sack): 600 | Total TDs: 16

There’s no way to spin this season as a positive for Iamaleava, who voluntarily left a CFP team (Tennessee) to go 3-6 at UCLA, but he was vital to a three-game midseason winning streak that briefly brought life to a lifeless program, and his best game — 166 passing yards, 150 non-sack rushing yards, five combined touchdowns against Penn State — was a perfect showcase of his dual-threat potential.

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Last Rank: 48 | Total QBR: 55.7 | Pass Yds: 2,056 | Rush Yds (no sack): 287 | Total TDs: 17

Playing the game on the hardest possible difficulty level is catching up with the true freshman. He is genuinely elite at escaping pressure — he has taken only two sacks from 96 pressures — but his productivity has slid during Maryland’s five-game losing streak. (No, his supporting cast hasn’t done him many favors: Maryland receivers’ 7.2% drop rate is the second worst in the power conferences.)

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Last Rank: 24 | Total QBR: 61.2 | Pass Yds: 2,230 | Rush Yds (no sack): 217 | Total TDs: 20

Although ISU’s defense has been a big part of the Cyclones’ up-and-down season, allowing 14.7 points per game in wins and 31.8 in losses, Becht’s own play has prompted a lot of success (or lack thereof) as well.

• Becht in six wins: 79.5 Total QBR, 48.4% success rate, 7.5 yards per dropback

• Becht in four losses: 39.3 Total QBR, 39.6% success rate, 5.8 yards per dropback

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Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 63.6 | Pass Yds: 466 | Rush Yds (no sack): 81 | Total TDs: 6

Easily the hardest guy on the list to evaluate. A true freshman, Lateef made his first start on Saturday, replacing the injured Dylan Raiola, and he completed his first 11 passes as the Huskers bolted to a big early lead and won. He ended up with only 15 passes and five rushes, but he produced a 98.7 Total QBR. A week earlier, his seven passes gained only 17 yards in a loss to USC. Which was the more accurate impression?

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Last Rank: 45 | Total QBR: 60.1 | Pass Yds: 2,234 | Rush Yds (no sack): 250 | Total TDs: 16

He left last week’s loss to Georgia with injury, and we’ll see what his status is moving forward, but the grizzled veteran, who has started games in parts of five seasons but technically still has a year of eligibility left, could end up with career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and rushing yards this season, and MSU is one win from its first bowl bid in three years.

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Last Rank: 49 | Total QBR: 51.0 | Pass Yds: 2,518 | Rush Yds (no sack): 71 | Total TDs: 15

Like Malik Washington, JKS has been playing on the highest difficulty level and hasn’t always shined. But after one of his worst performances of the season in a loss to Virginia, he responded with his best game to date, a 323-yard, two-touchdown performance in an upset of Louisville. He’s resilient and exciting; you could sort of say the same about Cal.

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Last Rank: 33 | Total QBR: 66.1 | Pass Yds: 1,984 | Rush Yds (no sack): 438 | Total TDs: 21

After a run of diminishing form from Chiles, coach Jonathan Smith started Milivojevic in the past game against Minnesota. The redshirt freshman threw for 311 yards — more than Chiles in any start this season — but took seven sacks, and State fell in overtime. Smith was coy about who might start moving forward, but honestly, the defense has been the far bigger issue regardless.

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Last Rank: 36 | Total QBR: 59.7 | Pass Yds: 2,132 | Rush Yds (no sack): 65 | Total TDs: 18

Last season at USC, Moss was good in September and benched in November. I’m not saying the same fate awaits in 2025, but his Total QBR slipped from 72.8 in his first four games to 60.8 in the next four, and he was abysmal in last week’s loss to Cal, averaging just 4.8 yards per dropback with an interception, two sacks and a late-game disappearing act.

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Last Rank: 27 | Total QBR: 58.6 | Pass Yds: 1,536 | Rush Yds (no sack): 442 | Total TDs: 10

It just hasn’t clicked in 2025. Being burdened with a poor line and inconsistent skill corps has exacerbated all of Sellers’ worst tendencies. He has been sacked on 14.1% of dropbacks (132nd) and hit on 46.7% (121st), and he has had more games with fewer than 4.0 yards per dropback (three) than games above 8.0 (two). Dismal stuff in a dismal season.

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Last Rank: 56 | Total QBR: 55.1 | Pass Yds: 1,592 | Rush Yds (no sack): 643 | Total TDs: 23

After the team’s dreadful start got Brent Pry fired, Drones’ play has improved from awful to merely inconsistent, and Tech has won three of its past six. His rushing has improved of late, but the passing game has never come around, and if the Hokies lose their last three games as projected, they’ll finish with their worst record since 1992. That’s not how Drones’ senior season was supposed to go.

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Last Rank: 42 | Total QBR: 58.5 | Pass Yds: 1,743 | Rush Yds (no sack): 12 | Total TDs: 14

If you didn’t know Lindsey was a redshirt freshman, you could probably tell it from his game-to-game Total QBR chart.

He has produced a rating over 93.0 on two occasions, and two games ago at Iowa, he produced a 4.8. Season averages of 5.7 yards per dropback and a 41.8% success rate are not amazing.

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52. Jeff Sims, Arizona State

Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 59.4 | Pass Yds: 359 | Rush Yds (no sack): 370 | Total TDs: 4

You know what you’re going to get with Jeff Sims at this point. The journeyman, starting with Sam Leavitt’s season-ending injury, can run as well as anyone, as evidenced by his 100 non-sack rushing yards against Utah and 228 against Iowa State. But if you’re relying on his arm, you’re going to be disappointed. He’s completing 51% of his passes and averaging 4.7 yards per dropback.

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Last Rank: 57 | Total QBR: 57.4 | Pass Yds: 1,084 | Rush Yds (no sack): 412 | Total TDs: 17

The celebrated FCS transfer has found his way in Iowa City, contributing good things to the run game and nearly helping Iowa to knock off Oregon with a late rushing touchdown (his 12th of the season) last Saturday. But the passing numbers — 5.3 yards per dropback, 9.3 per completion — are extremely subpar. Iowa has averaged just 14.7 points in three losses with Gronowski primarily at the wheel.

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Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 67.7 | Pass Yds: 562 | Rush Yds (no sack): 21 | Total TDs: 3

Thrust into the lineup after Drew Allar’s injury, the redshirt freshman is slowly taking on more responsibility, and his numbers are rising slowly. His 219 passing yards and 78.6 Total QBR helped to nearly pull off an upset of Indiana last week, but he has thrown just one TD pass to four INTs in three starts. There’s still a learning curve here.

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Last Rank: 61 | Total QBR: 57.9 | Pass Yds: 1,762 | Rush Yds (no sack): 138 | Total TDs: 11

You know it’s a lost season when your passes don’t really go anywhere (10.3 yards per completion, 116th nationally), but you’re still near the bottom in interception rate (4.5%, 129th) and you’re taking plenty of sacks (5.0% sack rate, 61st). Lagway was excellent in the upset of Texas, but his Total QBR has sunk back to 56.2 since then.

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Last Rank: 44 | Total QBR: 58.0 | Pass Yds: 1,898 | Rush Yds (no sack): 277 | Total TDs: 13

He has had some bright moments this season — three 300-yard games, four games with a Total QBR over 75.0 — but this is another “high difficulty level” job, and everything has regressed of late. After starting 2-0, Browne’s Boilers have lost eight in a row, averaging just 12.5 points per game in the past four.

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Last Rank: 40 | Total QBR: 58.5 | Pass Yds: 2,097 | Rush Yds (no sack): 547 | Total TDs: 22

Deion Sanders has changed his starting QB three times (Salter, then Staub, then Salter, then Lewis) and changed his playcaller last week. With Lewis (a blue-chip freshman) and new coordinator Brett Bartolone (a Mike Leach disciple), the Buffs’ offense perked up but got only 22 points from Lewis’ 299 yards, and CU fell to 3-7. It’s a lost season — might as well keep finding out what Lewis and Bartolone can do.

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Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 57.5 | Pass Yds: 290 | Rush Yds (no sack): 16 | Total TDs: 2

Zollers basically pulled a reverse Lateef, nearly saving Mizzou against Vanderbilt after Beau Pribula dislocated his ankle but then laying an egg in his first career start. Having to face Texas A&M’s pass rush right out of the gate was a bit cruel, but he missed makeable passes, too, while going just 7-of-22. The former blue-chipper could still be the Tigers’ future, but he’s a clear work in progress in the present.

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Last Rank: 64 | Total QBR: 50.6 | Pass Yds: 825 | Rush Yds (no sack): 248 | Total TDs: 8

Five different QBs have taken snaps for WVU this year, and it says something that Fox has been the clear standout of the bunch while averaging just 5.7 yards per dropback and 3.9 yards per carry (no sacks) in four starts. Still, the Mountaineers have won two straight, scoring 74 points in the process. That’s definitely an improvement!

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Last Rank: 67 | Total QBR: 50.0 | Pass Yds: 1,522 | Rush Yds (no sack): 89 | Total TDs: 11

Northwestern’s defense is good enough that, as long as Stone hits a Total QBR of 50.0 or more, the Wildcats will probably win. They’re 5-1 when he does so, but unfortunately he has fallen far short of that mark in three other losses. Still, at 96th in offensive SP+, this is NU’s best offense since 2020.

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Last Rank: 60 | Total QBR: 39.6 | Pass Yds: 1,940 | Rush Yds (no sack): 417 | Total TDs: 13

Wake is a surprising 6-3 thanks to a defense that ranks 12th in yards allowed per play and 24th in defensive SP+. But the offense has vanished of late, averaging 12.0 points per game in its past three with Ashford and Purdie combining to complete just 49% of their passes. Ashford’s a good runner, but Wake’s winning despite the offense.

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Last Rank: 52 | Total QBR: 50.8 | Pass Yds: 2,563 | Rush Yds (no sack): 214 | Total TDs: 18

James was pretty good late in 2024, but Lonergan, an Alabama transfer, beat him out for the starting job this season. Both have gotten ample playing time, and neither has done much. Lonergan has completed 67% of his passes, but they haven’t gone anywhere. James can run a little bit but throws too many picks and takes too many sacks. Pretty dire stuff.

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Last Rank: 53 | Total QBR: 49.6 | Pass Yds: 1,470 | Rush Yds (no sack): 131 | Total TDs: 8

After cycling through a few options because of injuries, Scott Frost has given most of the work to Jackson of late but hasn’t really been rewarded for it. He was excellent in a blowout of West Virginia in Week 8, but UCF has lost four of its past five, and his cumulative performance in those losses — 19.1 Total QBR, 4.3 yards per dropback, 0-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio — has been atrocious.

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Last Rank: 59 | Total QBR: 33.5 | Pass Yds: 2,315 | Rush Yds (no sack): 36 | Total TDs: 11

A journeyman’s journeyman, Gulbranson provided a beautiful moment for a bad team with his last-minute, game-winning drive against San Jose State. Otherwise, he and Brown have combined to lead an offense that ranks 126th in points per drive and 128th in yards per play.

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65. Gio Lopez, North Carolina

Last Rank: 66 | Total QBR: 44.4 | Pass Yds: 1,224 | Rush Yds (no sack): 186 | Total TDs: 10

I really liked Lopez at South Alabama last season, but in a lineup with almost no standout talent, he obviously hasn’t made things happen. He’s 108th in Total QBR, 105th in yards per dropback and 123rd in passing success rate, and he hasn’t scrambled very effectively either. Tough year.

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Last Rank: 63 | Total QBR: 28.7 | Pass Yds: 1,042 | Rush Yds (no sack): 235 | Total TDs: 7

Collins has provided some useful moments with his legs, especially against SMU, but his struggles in replacing the injured Steve Angeli were bad enough that coach Fran Brown went to walk-on freshman Joseph Filardi against North Carolina. When that failed miserably, he went back to Collins.

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67. Carter Smith (or the punter, or whoever Wisconsin’s sending out there this week), Wisconsin

Last Rank: 62 | Total QBR: 25.8 | Pass Yds: 1,241 | Rush Yds (no sack): 243 | Total TDs: 9

Wisconsin pulled the most Big Ten thing imaginable last Saturday, upsetting Washington 13-10 with its punter, Sean West, leading the team in passing yards. Smith, a true freshman, went just 3-for-12 for 8 yards (and 16 yards lost from two sacks) in his first action of the season, but he did rush 13 times for 63 yards to keep the field position battle somewhat neutralized. That’s something!

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68. All sorts of guys, Oklahoma State

Last Rank: 65 | Total QBR: 35.8 | Pass Yds: 1,365 | Rush Yds (no sack): 227 | Total TDs: 6

Five different quarterbacks have taken snaps for OSU this season, and since Hauss Hejny got hurt in Week 1, the other four — Zane Flores, Sam Jackson V, Noah Walters and Banks Bowen — have combined to lose eight straight starts and average 13.8 points per game. Incredibly, the defense has been even worse, but the offense wasn’t going to win any games regardless.

The NHL could use some new contenders, and not just because the Stanley Cup Final had the same participants for two straight seasons.

Fresh faces and burgeoning stars are intriguing. Teams on the rise bring renewed enthusiasm to the playoff races. Seeing teams that haven’t been postseason participants crashing the playoff party is a blast.

This season has a handful of teams seeking to break through into the playoffs. Two of them are in the Western Conference: the Utah Mammoth, in their second season in Salt Lake City; and the Anaheim Ducks, who’ve missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons. As of Tuesday, both of them were in playoff spots, with the Mammoth as a wild card and the Ducks leading the Pacific.

They’re new. They’re compelling. And above all, they’re fun to watch.

“Well, I guess it’s fun for you. It’s not fun for me,” joked Ducks GM Pat Verbeek, whose team has generated a lot of scoring chances but has also allowed its fair share. “Although sometimes chaos can go the right way.”

Can the Mammoth and Ducks sustain their early-season success? Here’s a look at how they became breakout teams this season and whether they’re destined for playoff berths or are just an early season tease that eventually fades from memory.

Jump ahead:
Mammoth
Ducks

Are the Mammoth for real?

What has changed since last season?

Before there was a team called the Utah Mammoth, there was a Utah Hockey Club.

The former Arizona Coyotes swapped desert heat for snow-packed peaks in search of brighter days for a franchise that had made one playoff appearance in 12 years (during the COVID-19 shortened campaign) and was in desperate need of a new identity.

Utah would need time to develop that in their new digs (hence the generic Hockey Club moniker for Year 1). GM Bill Armstrong — who has been with the organization since 2020 — arrived with nine players selected in the first round of the NHL draft from 2021-25. With new ownership in place (the Smith Entertainment Group), Utah’s hockey team had the sort of support last season that it hadn’t in Arizona. And it led to one of its strongest seasons in over a decade.

At the Christmas break, Utah was 16-12-6. But the team ebbed and flowed from there, hovering around the .500 mark while continuing to establish some consistency in its game.

There would be another preview of Utah’s potential in the final stretch of last season, when the team took off on a 17-9-4 run to cap off an 89-point season — 12 points ahead of where it was in 2023-24. It didn’t get Utah into the playoff field — its 38-31-13 record left it seven points shy of the Western Conference’s final wild-card slot — but it suggested there were parts coming together that could take Utah’s claim to a spot sooner than anyone expected. And, well, here the Mammoth are, doing exactly that.

It’s still early enough in the NHL season to be skeptical of all 32 teams’ success — or failures — to this point. But Armstrong intended to give his group every chance of pushing past their previous ceiling. Defenseman Dmitri Simashev — the No. 6 pick by Arizona in 2023 — has landed on their blue line, and at just 20 years old, he is making a difference with some top-pairing looks. Veteran defender Nate Schmidt signed a three-year contract with Utah in the offseason.

And perhaps most importantly, Utah chose its permanent name in May, which signaled a new beginning. So it went that the Mammoth carried their momentum from last season into this one, opening the season with a 7-2-0 stretch that put them among the NHL’s top clubs.

There’s a long way to go, but there’s reason to believe the Mammoth aren’t far off from venturing back into the playoff picture.

Key factor No. 1: The stars are (really) scoring

The Mammoth offense is no one-trick pony; more like a multiheaded beast.

Utah has a one-two punch up front, featuring top-10 draft picks that are finally coming into their own. Logan Cooley — selected third in 2022, and the recent recipient of an eight-year, $80 million contract extension — has posted the team’s second-most goals (eight) and 13 points, sitting just behind Nick Schmaltz (a top-20 draftee by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2014) and his team-leading nine goals and 19 points.

Dylan Guenther (picked ninth overall by Arizona in 2021) and Clayton Keller (seventh overall in 2016) are tearing it up with 13 and 15 points, respectively. JJ Peterka — a trade addition from Buffalo in the offseason — is thriving too, with four goals and 10 points, while top-pairing defenseman Mikhail Sergachev is pitching in with 11 points from the back end.

All that to say, Utah has shown there is serious chemistry throughout its lineup and that’s only bred confidence. Through the Mammoth’s first 10 games, they ranked sixth in offense (3.70 goals per game) and they were one of the stingiest defensive clubs (ranking third overall with 2.40 goals against).

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Logan Cooley scores again for Utah after review

Logan Cooley gets his fifth goal in his last four periods of hockey with this effort that just about goes in vs. the Wild.

But it’s not just that the Mammoth can score; they’re opportunistic. Guenther shares the NHL lead in game-winning goals (four) and Keller kept the Mammoth perfect in overtime this season when he netted a marker in extra time over Buffalo earlier this month. Utah has found ways to be resilient no matter their circumstance.

Best of all, Utah’s core is signed for the long term. Cooley, Guenther, Peterka and forward Jack McBain are signed through 2029-30. Keller is inked through 2027-28.

Building that out on the ice, though, was no easy task for coach Andre Tourigny. Now in his fifth year with the organization, Tourigny endured the final rough years with his squad in Arizona before they moved to Salt Lake City in 2024. The then-Coyotes lost 40 or more games in each of their final three seasons in the desert, where the same skaters now lighting up the scoresheet with ease were floundering on the ice and off it, lacking the kind of infrastructure and resources now provided by SEG; think not playing out of a college arena and having access to state-of-the-art facilities.

“I think [Tourigny’s] had a great impact on them, raising them right and making sure that they play on both sides of the puck,” Armstrong told ESPN on Tuesday. “It’s not just all offense. I think sometimes when you have young, hungry, offensive guys, things can get swayed, and then you don’t teach the right things when they’re young about playing on the other side of the puck.

“And it’s also situational play of getting pucks deep at the right time and playing the clock and [managing] the score. And he’s done a good job with that.”

Like many young teams before them, the Mammoth had to take their lumps while becoming a competitive, 200-foot team. Over the first six weeks of last season, for example, they were averaging fewer than three goals per game while giving up the 12th most in the league (3.25). Tourigny’s patience with the Mammoth’s evolution is finally paying off, and it’s most obvious in the way their best players are, finally, their most impactful ones, too.

Key factor No. 2: Goal suppression buy-in

Karel Vejmelka took his time breaking into the NHL. Now, it looks like his moment to break out.

The 29-year-old goaltender had three seasons under his belt with the Coyotes when the franchise moved to Salt Lake City, and Utah wasted no time putting its weight behind Vejmelka as its No. 1. The 55 starts he made last season were not only a career high (by a significant margin), but tied for the fourth-most games played by any NHL goalie in 2024-25. Not only that, but Vejmelka made an eye-popping 22 consecutive starts as Utah made its postseason push.

While the team may have fallen short, there was no sleep lost in deciding that Vejmelka would enter this season on track to once again be Utah’s primary keeper of the crease.

Vejmelka started six of the Mammoth’s first eight games and was terrific over that stretch. He’s been identified as a calming presence by Utah teammates, and a backbone of their confidence every night. His numbers have dipped slightly since the Mammoth’s hot start cooled at the end of a long road trip, but there’s little doubt from Utah that he will bounce back and continue giving them the necessary goaltending to keep competing at the highest level.

If Utah’s forwards have been courting the headlines, then their defensive improvements deserve at least a few lines on the front page. Because it’s come together for Utah thanks to internal growth and some key additions.

There was Schmidt and Simashev coming in and filling roles to deepen the Mammoth blue line. Simashev has been a particular spark, and has skated with Sergachev on the club’s top pairing. But Utah’s gains in the defensive end are a product of their group effort. The Mammoth are allowing the fewest shots against in the league (24 per game) and their quick transition game can overwhelm opponents. While Utah can boast incredible offensive skaters, the way those same players pitch in without cheating for chances up the ice is a major reason why Utah has been in position to win so often this season.

Armstrong hasn’t been shy about discussing how painful the team’s rebuild has been. No GM hopes to be selecting at the top of the draft every year. This version of Utah is what Armstrong believed in all along — where’d they have the goaltending, the defensive buy-in and enough firepower to compete with any team.

What the analytics tell us

Rachel Kryshak, the data analyst behind Betalytics and a prospects writer for ESPN, had the Mammoth as her under-the-radar team headed into the season.

“My model had them finishing in the top wild-card spot, one point back of third in the Central,” she said.

Kryshak likes what she sees so far to back up the prediction.

“Thus far, the Mammoth are out chancing their opponents at even strength and they are among the league’s best at creating higher-danger scoring opportunities. On average, they outshoot their opponents by five shots per game and control the pace of play,” she said. “Their top six has done a fantastic job of utilizing their speed and skill to control the game. Their young talent is starting to mature in the NHL and develop chemistry together and when that is combined with high end speed, it becomes very difficult to defend.”

Micah Blake McCurdy, who does hockey data visualizations on Hockeyviz.com, has been most fascinated with the Mammoth in the defensive end.

“I’m most impressed by their team defense. They’ve been comfortably better at limiting chances against at 5-on-5 than last season, and a lot better limiting chances against on the penalty kill. The goaltending looks about like I expected it — a shade below average,” McCurdy said.

Offensively, the Mammoth haven’t been getting a large volume of shots, but that hasn’t been an issue with the way they’re converting chances. “If there’s a concern, it’ll be that the finishing touch is a shade high for the roster and might come down,” McCurdy said. “They’re also very score-affected: Chasing hard when losing and turtling when winning. Teams that go on deep playoff runs usually play more consistently across all score states.”

Vince Masi, a stats analyst for ESPN Research, wonders if regression is already starting for Utah, having gone through a stretch where they scored three or fewer goals in seven straight games.

“While they are controlling the 5-on-5 shot attempts at a good clip in the early going, they were dead last in 5-on-5 save percentage at .875,” said Masi, who suggests the Mammoth may be overworking Vejmelka.

“Since the return after the 4 Nations Face-Off in regular-season games, Vejmelka has played the most of any goalie in the league,” he said.

Is this sustainable?

In a word: probably.

Because the Mammoth are about to find out what they’re made of — one way or another.

Utah is riding its first extended losing streak of the season, having dropped three straight and five of its last six. Only one of those defeats was at home though, and the Mammoth are finally back in Salt Lake City for six of their next eight after almost three weeks on the road.

And it’s not like Utah has necessarily been bad. They just ran into typical early-season struggles, like going 0-for-13 on the power play when they were previously operating at 21.1% with the extra man. The Mammoth’s penalty kill, on the other hand, was a perfect 10-for-10 in the same stretch.

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Logan Cooley nets power-play goal

Logan Cooley nets power-play goal

Utah has all the talent it needs to be a contender this season. But there is still a learning curve that comes with winning, as the Mammoth have quickly discovered.

“When you go through as many road games as we played, I think you get worn down a little bit,” Armstrong said. “It’s kind of refreshing to come home, and it’s a little bit humbling to know that, hey, you won all those games in a row, but now you’re battling to get back on track. It’s a good league, and there’s a fine line between winning and losing, and we’ve got to find that line.”

First, there are things to fix, starting on special teams. While the Mammoth’s gaudy offensive stats from October were bound to level out as the league’s teams settled into November — and remembered how to play defense — there’s no reason Utah can’t adjust and be right back among the Central Division’s best clubs.

Vejmelka will be a significant part of the turnaround. He’s 1-3-0 of late, with an .831 SV% and 3.78 GAA. That’s not what Utah can expect from Vejmelka when he’s on point. As long as he’s able to steer out of the skid, it will keep Utah from wasting its solid defensive efforts (they were still averaging the fewest shots against in the league while racking up recent losses).

The famous American Thanksgiving deadline is looming. Teams in the playoff field at that point tend to still be in position at season’s end. This next run of games is Utah’s opportunity to prove itself. Their schedule features four teams not in the postseason picture now, and if the Mammoth can leverage their home-ice advantage (they are 4-1-0 this season at Delta Center) then Utah can show they were no flash in the pan.

Are the Anaheim Ducks for real?

What has changed since last season?

It has been seven seasons since the Ducks last waddled into the postseason, losing in the first round back in 2018. To timestamp this drought, that team had Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Kevin Bieksa and 37-year-old Ryan Miller on the roster.

Since then, the Ducks have been amassing young talent through the draft. Most of them — Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, Beckett Sennecke, Lukas Dostal — are the foundation for Anaheim’s rebuild. Some of them were eventually traded, like when the Ducks traded defenseman Jamie Drysdale to the Philadelphia Flyers for forward Cutter Gauthier, now a burgeoning star.

Powered by that young core, Anaheim saw a remarkable 21-point improvement in the standings year over year in 2024-25, but that was only good enough to place 12th in the Western Conference. Coach Greg Cronin was dismissed after two seasons. GM Pat Verbeek lured coach Joel Quenneville to Anaheim, and that might turn out to be one of the NHL offseason’s most significant moves.

Quenneville, 67, hadn’t coached in the NHL since resigning from the Florida Panthers in 2021 after an independent review by a law firm detailed how the Blackhawks organization failed to properly address allegations by player Kyle Beach that he was sexually assaulted by video coach Brad Aldrich during the team’s 2010 Stanley Cup run. Quenneville, who coached that team, was ineligible to work for other NHL teams until commissioner Gary Bettman lifted a ban on the coach and two former Blackhawks executives in July 2024.

Verbeek said at the time that Anaheim had done its due diligence on Quenneville. “Our findings are consistent with Joel’s account that he was not fully aware of the severity of what transpired in 2010. It is clear that Joel deeply regrets not following up with more questions at the time, has demonstrated meaningful personal growth and accountability, and has earned the opportunity to return to coaching,” he said in a statement.

The arrival of a three-time Stanley Cup-winning head coach had a transformative effect on the Ducks.

“The thing that really resonated was that Joel’s got a great resumé. He’s a winner. He has won three times as a head coach, one as an assistant coach,” Verbeek told ESPN on Monday. “So I think the instant respect was there, not only from the older guys but from the younger guys. They’re all hungry to win. Bringing Joel in from just that aspect alone has made a huge difference.

If Quenneville’s arrival didn’t signal that the Ducks were ready to turn the corner back to playoff contention, the rest of Verbeek’s offseason certainly did. The Ducks signed center Mikael Granlund away from Dallas (three years, $21 million). They traded goalie John Gibson (Detroit) and forward Trevor Zegras (Philadelphia), ending long-standing trade speculation about both. Perhaps most significantly, they traded for longtime New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider.

Verbeek knew Kreider well from his days in Tampa Bay’s front office, as the Lightning battled Kreider’s Rangers. He wanted a winger with speed that could improve the Ducks’ special teams, but he also wanted Kreider’s singular abilities around the crease.

“I’m not sure there’s a better guy in front of the net than him over the last seven or eight years,” Verbeek said.

One player that Verbeek consulted about Kreider: Defenseman Jacob Trouba, who was Kreider’s friend and teammate with the Rangers. It’s not often that one team brings in multiple players from an opponents’ leadership group, but that’s exactly what Anaheim did in trading for Trouba, who captained the Rangers, and Kreider, a 13-season veteran with the franchise.

Trouba, Kreider, forward Alex Killorn and defenseman Radko Gudas are part of a veteran core that Verbeek designed based on his own experiences as a player. He recalled how important veteran players were to his development as a young star with the 1980s New Jersey Devils, relying on the advice of goaltender Chico Resch and forward Mel Bridgman, who passed away on Nov. 8.

“I told our [veterans] that you have a huge opportunity to make such a huge impact on these young players. You have no idea how much these players are going to respect you,” he said.

He’s seen that in Kreider already. “He’s been a great example for a bunch of our other guys seeing the success that he’s had,” Verbeek said. “Guys want to emulate that.”

Key factor No. 1: Ducks fly together

The most notable beneficiary from the Ducks’ offseason moves and the maturation of their young stars has been their offense. They’re not just winning games; they’re scoring touchdowns.

Last season, Anaheim ranked 30th in the NHL in goals per game (2.65). Through 15 games this season, the Ducks were first in the NHL in scoring with an average of 4.13 goals per game. They put up seven goals in wins against the San Jose Sharks, Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars.

“We’re playing fast. We certainly have speed,” Verbeek said.

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Leo Carlsson scores power-play goal vs. Jets

Leo Carlsson scores power-play goal vs. Jets

The Ducks’ 5-on-5 play has improved across the board under Quenneville. They’re averaging 3.21 goals per 60 minutes, up from 2.36 last season. Their expected goals per 60 minutes (2.86), scoring chances percentage (48.4%) and high-danger shot attempts (46.7%) are all up from last season. Perhaps most importantly, their percentage of shot attempts has jumped from 45.9% last season to 50.9% this season so far.

“We’ve added speed and size. It’s made a difference in puck possession down in the offensive zone. Joel preaches it every single day to the younger guys: Puck possession, hang onto it and if we lose it, we’ve got to get it back fast. I think that has resonated well and the guys have taken to it,” Verbeek said. “They’ve been executing and they’ve been getting rewarded for that.”

Of course, it helps to have players that can execute. Carlsson was among the NHL’s top scorers through 15 games with 25 points (10 goals, 15 assists). Gauthier led the Ducks with 11 goals through 15 games. Kreider had a stretch of nine goals in 11 games, shooting a flabbergasting 32.1%. Veteran winger Troy Terry had 19 points through 15 games, while rookie Beckett Sennecke had 11 points.

Five of Kreider’s goals have come on the power play, which ranks in the NHL’s top 10 with a 23.7% conversion rate. Again, the word “improvement” doesn’t do the year-over-year jump for the Ducks justice: They were last in the NHL last season with a 11.8% power-play conversion rate.

The Ducks are dominating offensively. Defensively … well, it’s a work in progress.

Key factor No. 2: Lukas Dostal

Last season, the Ducks were 23rd in the NHL in goals against per game (3.18). That number could have been much worse. Anaheim was last in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.96) but were bailed out by the seventh best 5-on-5 goaltending last season, courtesy of Gibson and Dostal.

Quenneville immediately sought to improve the Ducks’ defensive structure this season. “He simplified our D-zone coverage. There’s a lot of support in how we defend,” Verbeek said.

The good news for the Ducks is that they’re able to score their way out of any problem so far this season. The bad news is that their 5-on-5 defense is that aforementioned problem. Anaheim has a 3.15 expected goals per 60 minutes through 15 games. Their scoring chances against is right around where it was last season.

The best news is that Dostal is now their primary goaltender, and he’s been nothing short of astounding in 12 games. He’s third in the NHL in goals saved above expected (9.6) and has a .908 save percentage. Dostal is facing over 28 shots per game on average. He has 1.6 wins above replacement so far, via Money Puck.

Dostal has been their last line of defense and, at times, the entirety of their defense. Anaheim is not near the top of their division without him.

What the analytics tell us

“They’ve been playing real chaos hockey,” McCurdy said.

McCurdy has seen the Ducks create a ton of scoring chances and give them up, too. But the results are better year over year.

“Last year at 5-on-5, they were the league’s worst defense and nearly the worst offense,” he said. “They’ve improved the two together for a net improvement of almost a goal per sixty minutes, just in chances.”

Kryshak, the data analyst behind Betalytics, sees Dostal’s Vezina Trophy-worthy play as the reason the Ducks can get away with “high-octane hockey” so far this season — to the benefit of their younger players.

“Their young players make mistakes but aren’t benched. They are given opportunities to learn and grow through them which is paying off for the likes of Beckett Sennecke and Olen Zelwegger,” she said.

She added that Anaheim’s core players are driving its offense.

“There is little doubt the Ducks have the ability to score. Leo Carlsson is tracking to be Sweden’s top center in Milan, Cutter Gauthier is generating shots at superstar levels, both Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba look rejuvenated. It’s all coming together,” she said. “The Ducks’ ability to generate offense ranks fifth in the NHL at even strength, and their pace of play ranks second to Columbus, largely because of their ability to generate rush chances as one of the fastest teams in the NHL.”

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Cutter Gauthier completes first career hat trick for Ducks

Cutter Gauthier scores his first career hat trick for the Ducks vs. the Panthers.

Masi says the Ducks are generating “just a ridiculous amount of offense” this season, with historic precedence:

• In the last 30 years, only the 1995-96 and 2019-20 Pittsburgh Penguins scored seven goals in a game at least four times in their first 13 games of the season.

• Carlsson and Gauthier are just the sixth pair of 21-and-under teammates with 20 points in their first 15 games of the season. The rest of that list includes players like Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey (Oilers) and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Penguins).

Entering this week, the Ducks were third in chances off the rush and off odd-man rushes, as well as high-danger chances.

So they can score. But is that enough?

“They are so much fun to watch, but you can’t be considered a true contender when you trade scoring chances at the level the Ducks do and are currently getting Vezina-level goaltending,” Kryshak said.

Is this sustainable?

McCurdy is perplexed.

It was clear that Quenneville would be an improvement behind the bench in terms of structure and that players like Carlsson were ready to level up. “I anticipated those things in the summer and they’re still outperforming even that,” McCurdy said. “It doesn’t seem like the kind of improvement that can last, just because of how unusual such a sudden improvement is historically. I don’t feel like I understand it very strongly.”

Masi is curious.

“Are they a PDO monster?” he asked, referencing the stat that combines a team’s shooting percentage with its save percentage and informally measures “luck” in the NHL.

“They have a 103.2 5-on-5 shot-plus-save percentage, which ranks third behind the Blackhawks and Canadiens,” he said.

Kryshak is skeptical.

“The Ducks are not a house of cards, but their reliance on Lukas Dostal is significant. Their play style is to trade chances, knowing that their goaltender is likely to be better than their opponents’ on any given night. If that is not the case, the Ducks will lose games 7-6 or 6-5 and so on,” she said.

But Verbeek is optimistic. The Ducks GM acknowledged that his team has some ground to make up defensively this season, but was confident they could.

“I think it’s about getting more comfortable. I expect this to be better in the next 15 to 20 games. And consequently taking another step in the last half of the season, the last 30 games,” he said. “When Joel and I talk, he’s super excited that he sees that every day is a process. Every day we’re getting better.”

“In some instances we’re very young. That’s why having the vets can kind of stabilize things when it gets a little Helter Skelter out,” the GM added. “Having a calming presence helps.”

The Ducks have shown enough improvement early in the season for this start not to be an aberration. But as noted several times here, their MVP is Lukas Dostal. They can outscore the defensive foibles of a young roster. They can’t outscore those issues without having Dostal as their elite safety net.

If he stays healthy and playing to his standards? There’s no reason the Ducks can fly into the postseason, perhaps a little ahead of their assumed schedule.