‘Sudden stratospheric warming’ forecast to hit northern Europe in January – but experts unsure where it will strike
The UK could find itself in the deep freeze in January due to a change in wind patterns high up in the atmosphere – the same phenomenon that blew in the bitterly cold Beast from the East in 2018.
However, forecasters are warning it is too soon to tell where in Europe the cold weather will strike.
The “increased likelihood” of a freezing spell is due to a phenomenon called a ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ (SSW) that is forecast for early January, which can bring plunging cold temperatures a week or so later.
Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “When you get an SSW it increases the likelihood of a prolonged cold spell across Northern Europe, like the Beast from the East.”
But it is “hard to say” exactly where it will hit, she said. “It could impact the UK, it has the potential to, but I wouldn’t like to say it’s likely to.”
But the Met Office urged more caution. Spokesperson Stephen Dixon said: “It’s too early to tell if there will be a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event at the moment.
“Forecast models suggest a much weakened polar vortex over the coming weeks, but it’s not clear if this will result in an SSW or exactly how this will influence the UK’s weather patterns at this range.”
What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
An SSW happens when polar vortex winds in the stratosphere – the layer of atmosphere at 10-50km above Earth – slow, stop or reverse direction.
This leads to rapid warming in the stratosphere by up to 50C, but a few weeks later this also disrupts the jet stream, which affects our weather lower down.
As the jet stream starts to “wobble”, it allows cold air usually locked above the Arctic to seep further south in some areas of the Northern Hemisphere, said Prof Bentley.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
There are major disruptions on the A9 in Scotland due to heavy snow
How will it affect our weather?
“Now the crux of what we are looking for is where the waves [in the jet stream] will be,” added Prof Bentley.
“When we have an SSW it increases the likelihood of a cold spell across a large region like Europe or North America, but we wouldn’t get a feel for the actual position until four or five days out.
“Exactly where is hard to pinpoint. But there is an increased likelihood of very cold spells for certain regions.”
Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, a meteorologist from the University of Reading, said SSWs are also associated with “weaker westerlies for Europe and even easterlies, in some cases.”
“Given westerly winds tend to give more mild weather in winter, that can bring much colder weather across Western Europe.”
He added: “We know Europe will be cold, but it is difficult to be precise where, this far out.”
A car gets stuck in snow in Hayfield in Derbyshire during the “mini beast from the east” in 2018
When will it happen?
An SSW is on the cards for the next week, but it takes another week or so after that before the knock-on impact on the jet stream.
A cold spell is forecast for the second week of January, but it could kick in later, or last until February, said Prof Bentley.
The current Met Office forecast for mid-January projects an “increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic.
“Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.”
Will the UK see another ‘Beast from the East’?
An SSW doesn’t always bring cold conditions to the UK, because it depends on where the jet stream “wobbles”.
The Beast from the East in 2018 was caused by an SSW that allowed cold air to flow in to the UK from Siberia in the east.
But another SSW in 2019 “didn’t have a strong influence on Europe”, said Prof Charlton-Perez.
In any case, the UK is likely to see more settled weather than the recent wind and rain, said Prof Bentley.
It has been an extraordinary few hours which may well set the tone for a hugely consequential week ahead.
In the time that it took me to fly from London to Saudi Arabia, where President Donald Trump will begin a pivotal Middle East tour this week, a flurry of news has emerged on a range of key global challenges.
• On the Gaza war: The Trump administration has confirmed it’s holding talks with Hamas, which says it will release a hostage amid renewed hopes of a ceasefire.
• On the Ukraine war: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul – this announcement came minutes after Trump urged Zelenskyy to agree to the meeting.
• On the China-US trade war: The White House says the two countries have agreed to a “trade deal”. China said the talks, in Geneva, were “candid, in-depth and constructive”.
All three of these developments represent dramatic shifts in three separate challenges and hint at the remarkable influence the US president is having globally.
This sets the ground for what could be a truly consequential week for Trump’s presidency and his ability to effect change.
With his unique style, Trump is seeking to align numerous stars as he embarks on his first foreign diplomatic trip of his second presidency.
For days, it’s been unclear how the week ahead would unfold and which global challenge would be dominant.
The Saudi government has been instrumental as a broker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Qatar has been a mediator in the Gaza war.
Trump will visit both countries this week.
President Donald Trump on Air Force One earlier this month. File pic: AP
👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈
Putin under pressure?
On Ukraine, Putin held a late-night news conference at the Kremlin on Saturday at which he made the surprise proposal of talks with Zelenskyy in Istanbul this Thursday.
But he rejected European and US calls for an immediate ceasefire.
The move was widely interpreted as a delay tactic.
Trump then issued a social media post urging Zelenskyy to accept the Russian proposal; effectively to call Putin’s bluff.
The American president wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”
Within minutes, Zelenskyy responded, agreeing to the talks.
“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.
The prospect of Putin and Zelenskyy together in Istanbul on Thursday is remarkable.
It raises the possibility that Trump would want to be there too.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomes other world leaders to Kyiv. Pic: Presidential Office of Ukraine/dpa/AP Images
Israel’s war in Gaza
On Gaza, it’s been announced that US envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Monday to finalise details for the release of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American hostage being held by Hamas.
The development comes after it was confirmed that Mr Witkoff has been holding discussions with Israel, Qatar and Egypt and, through them, with Hamas.
The talks focused on a possible Gaza hostage deal and larger peace discussions for a ceasefire.
Read more:
Trump faces criticism over Kashmir post
Pope addresses major wars in first Sunday message
Gaza after around a year and a half of Israeli attacks. Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa
Just days ago, Israel announced a new military plan to move back into Gaza.
When do candid talks become a trade deal?
Meanwhile, officials from the United States and China have been holding talks in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve their trade war, which was instigated by Trump’s tariffs against China.
Late on Sunday evening, the White House released a statement claiming that a trade deal had been struck.
In a written statement, titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva”, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “I’m happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks… We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive. We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself. And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”
Beijing Global Times newspaper quoted the Chinese vice premier as saying that the talks were candid, in-depth and constructive.
However, the Chinese fell short of calling it a trade deal.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
A Qatari gift
In a separate development, US media reports say that Qatar is preparing to gift Trump a Boeing 747 from its royal fleet, which he would use as a replacement for the existing and aging Air Force One plane.
The Qatari government says no deal has been finalised, but the development is already causing controversy because of the optics of accepting gifts of this value.
Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.
There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.
In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner. That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).
Trump latest: US and China slash tariffs in trade war de-escalation
So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.
In short, China will still face an extra 30% tariffs (the 20% levies cast as punishment for China’s involvement in fentanyl imports and the 10% “floor” set on “Liberation Day”) on top of the residual 10% average from the Biden era.
But the rest of the extra tariffs will be paused for 90 days. China, in turn, has suspended its own retaliatory tariffs on the US.
The market has responded as you would probably have expected, with share prices leaping in relief. But that raises a question: is the trade war now over? Now that the two sides have blinked, can globalisation continue more or less as it had before?
That, it turns out, is a trickier and more complex question than it might first seem.
Pic: AP
For one thing, even if one were to assume this is a permanent truce rather than a suspended one, it still leaves tariffs considerably higher than they were only last year. And China faces tariffs far higher than most other countries (tot up the existing ones and the Trump era ones and China faces average tariffs of around 40%, while the average for most countries is between 8% and 14%, according to Capital Economics).
In other words, the US is still implementing an economic policy designed to increase the cost of doing business with China, even if it no longer attempts to prevent it altogether. The fact that last week’s trade agreement with the UK contains clauses seemingly designed to encourage it to raise trade barriers against China for reasons of “security” only reinforces this suspicion. The trade war is still simmering, even if it’s no longer as hot as it was a few days ago.
Read more:
US-UK trade deal ‘isn’t worth the paper it’s written on’
Key details in ‘historic’ US-UK trade deal
And more broadly, the deeper impact of the trade rollercoaster in recent months is unlikely to disappear altogether. Companies remain more nervous about investing in factories and expansions in the face of such deep economic instability. No-one is entirely sure the White House won’t just U-turn once again.
That being said, it’s hard not to escape the conclusion that the US president has blinked in this trade war. In the face of a potential recession, he has pulled back from the scariest and most damaging of his tariffs, earlier and to a greater extent than many had expected.
World
Zelenskyy’s offer to meet Putin raises the stakes in this already high-stakes game of diplomacy
Diplomacy over Ukraine has become even more of a game of high-stakes poker.
In the early hours of Sunday, Vladimir Putin played his hand, rejecting demands for a ceasefire and proposing direct talks in Istanbul instead.
Read more:
Trump says Ukraine should ‘immediately’ agree to direct talks with Russia
Ukraine ‘ready to meet’ Russia after Putin calls for peace talks
That was in response to the opening gambit made on Saturday by Ukraine and its European allies.
Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer said they were “calling Putin out”, that if he was really serious about peace, he should agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting on Monday.
And they thought they had Donald Trump’s backing until he made his move.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Kremlin: ‘We don’t share Starmer’s view’
Late Sunday, he drove a cart and horses through claims of western unity, coming down on Putin’s side.
Ukraine, he said, should submit to the Russian leader’s suggestion of talks.
“Ukraine should agree to this – immediately”, he posted. Then: “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin…”
So much for the Coalition of the Willing having Putin where they wanted him.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Are Putin’s call for peace talks genuine?
Trump let him off the hook.
All eyes were then on President Zelenskyy, who has now in turn dramatically raised the stakes.
He will go to Istanbul, he said, and wait there for Vladimir Putin.
Over to you, Vladimir.
Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
The fast-paced diplomacy aside, the last twenty-four hours have brought Europe closer to a moment of truth.
They thought they had Donald Trump’s support, and yet even with 30 nations demanding an unconditional ceasefire, the US president seemed, in the end, to side with the Russian leader.
He has helped Putin get out of a hole.
Yet again, Trump could not be counted on to pressure Vladimir Putin to end this war.
If America is no longer a reliable partner over Ukraine, Europe may need to go it alone, whatever the cost.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway