‘Sudden stratospheric warming’ forecast to hit northern Europe in January – but experts unsure where it will strike

Published

1 year ago

December 28, 2023

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The UK could find itself in the deep freeze in January due to a change in wind patterns high up in the atmosphere – the same phenomenon that blew in the bitterly cold Beast from the East in 2018.

However, forecasters are warning it is too soon to tell where in Europe the cold weather will strike.

The “increased likelihood” of a freezing spell is due to a phenomenon called a ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ (SSW) that is forecast for early January, which can bring plunging cold temperatures a week or so later.

Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “When you get an SSW it increases the likelihood of a prolonged cold spell across Northern Europe, like the Beast from the East.”

But it is “hard to say” exactly where it will hit, she said. “It could impact the UK, it has the potential to, but I wouldn’t like to say it’s likely to.”

But the Met Office urged more caution. Spokesperson Stephen Dixon said: “It’s too early to tell if there will be a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event at the moment.

“Forecast models suggest a much weakened polar vortex over the coming weeks, but it’s not clear if this will result in an SSW or exactly how this will influence the UK’s weather patterns at this range.”

What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

An SSW happens when polar vortex winds in the stratosphere – the layer of atmosphere at 10-50km above Earth – slow, stop or reverse direction.

This leads to rapid warming in the stratosphere by up to 50C, but a few weeks later this also disrupts the jet stream, which affects our weather lower down.

As the jet stream starts to “wobble”, it allows cold air usually locked above the Arctic to seep further south in some areas of the Northern Hemisphere, said Prof Bentley.

How will it affect our weather?

“Now the crux of what we are looking for is where the waves [in the jet stream] will be,” added Prof Bentley.

“When we have an SSW it increases the likelihood of a cold spell across a large region like Europe or North America, but we wouldn’t get a feel for the actual position until four or five days out.

“Exactly where is hard to pinpoint. But there is an increased likelihood of very cold spells for certain regions.”

Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, a meteorologist from the University of Reading, said SSWs are also associated with “weaker westerlies for Europe and even easterlies, in some cases.”

“Given westerly winds tend to give more mild weather in winter, that can bring much colder weather across Western Europe.”

He added: “We know Europe will be cold, but it is difficult to be precise where, this far out.”

When will it happen?

An SSW is on the cards for the next week, but it takes another week or so after that before the knock-on impact on the jet stream.

A cold spell is forecast for the second week of January, but it could kick in later, or last until February, said Prof Bentley.

The current Met Office forecast for mid-January projects an “increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic.

“Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.”

Will the UK see another ‘Beast from the East’?

An SSW doesn’t always bring cold conditions to the UK, because it depends on where the jet stream “wobbles”.

The Beast from the East in 2018 was caused by an SSW that allowed cold air to flow in to the UK from Siberia in the east.

But another SSW in 2019 “didn’t have a strong influence on Europe”, said Prof Charlton-Perez.

In any case, the UK is likely to see more settled weather than the recent wind and rain, said Prof Bentley.

World

Israel launches new ‘limited ground invasion’ of Gaza amid deadly bombardment

Published

7 hours ago

March 19, 2025

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Israel launches new 'limited ground invasion' of Gaza amid deadly bombardment

Israel says it has launched a “limited ground operation” to retake part of a key corridor in Gaza.

The move appeared to deepen a renewed Israeli offensive that shattered a ceasefire with Hamas that had begun in January.

As part of the ceasefire, Israel had withdrawn from the Netzarim corridor, which bisected northern Gaza from the south and had been used by Israeli forces as a military zone.

It came as an international United Nations worker from Bulgaria was killed and five others seriously wounded in a strike on a UN guesthouse in the Gaza Strip.

Jorge Moreira da Silva, head of the UN Office for Project Services, declined to say who carried out the strike that killed the worker in the central city of Deir al Balah but said the explosive ordnance was “dropped or fired” and the blast was not accidental or related to demining activity.

The UN body, known as UNOPS, carries out infrastructure and development projects around the world.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF), which has carried out a massive series of airstrikes throughout Gaza since early on Tuesday, denied earlier reports that it had targeted the UN compound.

But Mr Moreira da Silva said strikes had hit near the compound on Monday and struck it directly on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, when the worker was killed.

He said the agency had contacted the IDF after the first strike and confirmed that it was aware of the facility’s location. The UN’s secretary general Antonio Guterres said he was “deeply saddened” by the staff member’s death and condemned attacks on UN personnel.

The war in Gaza has been among the deadliest conflicts ever for humanitarian workers, according to the UN.

At least 436 people, including 183 children and 94 women, have been killed since Israel launched the fresh wave of strikes, the Gaza health ministry said.

The IDF claims it only targets militants and blames civilian deaths on Hamas because it operates in densely populated areas. Gaza’s health ministry records do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army said it had overnight attacked a Hamas military site from which the militant group planned to launch strikes into Israel.

The IDF targeted the site in northern Gaza as it was where “preparations were being made to fire projectiles at Israeli territory”, the military said in a statement.

The Israeli navy also struck several vessels in the coastal area of Gaza as they were intended to be used for “terrorist activities”, the IDF claimed.

Israel issued fresh evacuation orders on Wednesday for different areas across the Gaza Strip and told people to move to known shelters in Khan Younis and western Gaza City.

The latest strikes come weeks after the end of the first phase of the ceasefire, during which Israel and Hamas exchanged hostages for prisoners and were set to negotiate an extension to the truce that was meant to bring about an eventual end to the war. But those negotiations never got off the ground.

Hamas has demanded that Israel stick to the terms of the initial ceasefire deal, including a full withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war.

Israel, which has vowed to defeat Hamas, has put forward a new proposal that would extend the truce and free more hostages held by Hamas, without a commitment to end the war.

During the ceasefire period, 33 hostages were released, along with nearly 1,800 Palestinian prisoners.

There are 59 hostages still in captivity, of whom Israel believes 35 are dead.

More than one million people risked being left without food parcels in March if aid was not allowed into Gaza, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported the Food Security Sector as saying.

The war, sparked by Hamas’ 7 October 2023 killing of 1,200 people and capture of 250 more in southern Israel, has killed more than 48,000 Palestinians in the Strip, Gazan health officials say.

World

What Sky’s correspondents think about the Trump-Putin phone call

Published

14 hours ago

March 19, 2025

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What Sky's correspondents think about the Trump-Putin phone call

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on Tuesday for at least 90 minutes.

Russia has agreed to a partial ceasefire on targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure as a result, for a period of 30 days.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that future talks about Ukraine without Kyiv at the table will not bring any results.

Here’s what two of Sky’s correspondents make of the Trump-Putin phone call.

Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent

I think Vladimir Putin will be very satisfied with the outcome of this call because even if he hasn’t gained a whole lot, he crucially hasn’t lost anything.

By agreeing to a ceasefire on energy infrastructure, he has given Donald Trump enough to ensure the wider US-Russia rapprochement remains intact.

There’s been talk in the last month of a reset of relations, of the lifting of sanctions – and Putin certainly doesn’t want to jeopardise that.

Follow live updates on aftermath of call

At the same time, though, Putin didn’t want to dilute any of his red lines. And by the sounds of it, they’re as indelible as ever.

The Kremlin’s readout of the call talks of a need to “eliminate the root causes of the crisis”, which is Kremlin code for “Russia’s security concerns regarding NATO expansion need to be met”.

One thing this call has given him though is the time to press home Russia’s military advantage.

This is particularly important to Putin in Russia’s Kursk region, where his forces are seemingly on the verge of eradicating Ukraine’s foothold, which would be of huge symbolic importance to the Kremlin.

James Matthews, US correspondent

They’re calling it “ceasefire-lite”. In Kyiv, they’ll choke on it.

The respective readouts of the Trump-Putin phone call don’t read well for Ukrainians relying on a US ally to do their bidding.

They had already agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with the Americans who said they were “on the 10th yard line of peace”.

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Moscow, clearly, has different ideas. To extend the American football metaphor, Vladimir Putin still has hands on the ball.

The Russians know Donald Trump. Prisoner exchanges present a trophy achievement.

There was, of all things, talk of US vs Russia ice hockey matches. In Moscow, they know Trump’s comfortable talking sport and that many Americans think hockey before they think Ukraine.

It was dressing around a deal that is deeply flawed from Kyiv’s perspective.

Russian talk of eliminating “root causes of the crisis” speaks to Moscow’s desire to demilitarise Ukraine and lay claim to its territory.

Then there was Putin’s insistence on a “cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv”.

To cut the supply of weapons and intelligence would weaken Ukraine while Russia strengthens. For Kyiv, it’s a line so red, it’s purple.

What Trump does next is pivotal. What he’s done so far boxes Ukraine into a corner, European allies too.

A common thread in the readouts was the positive talk of US-Russian relations to come – “an improved bilateral relationship… has huge upside” was Washington’s take.

It’s clear Trump and Putin share the vision of a geopolitical shift, built on shared priorities. The fate of Ukraine isn’t necessarily top of the list.

World

Airstrikes across Gaza as Israel vows to target Hamas ‘with increasing military force’

Published

1 day ago

March 18, 2025

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Airstrikes across Gaza as Israel vows to target Hamas 'with increasing military force'

Israel’s latest airstrikes in Gaza have killed at least 413 people, the Hamas-run health ministry has said, as the UN’s human rights chief branded the violence as “horrifying”.

A further 562 people were injured in the airstrikes, which put an end to a fragile ceasefire between Hamas, the militant group ruling Gaza, and Israel as they resumed overnight.

A statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said: “From now on, Israel will act against Hamas with increasing military force”.

Evacuation orders have been issued by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) for a number of areas in Gaza, after the ceasefire had allowed for hundreds of thousands of displaced people to return to their homes across the enclave.

The IDF said on X people should leave the neighbourhoods of Beit Hanoun, Khuza’a, Abasan al-Kabira and al-Jadida and head to shelters in Gaza City and Khan Younis.

That’s despite Gaza City and Khan Younis being among the areas where airstrikes were reported.

Northern Gaza, the Deir al-Balah and Rafah also came under attack.

Many of the dead from the latest strikes were children, according to Palestinian health ministry officials.

The Hamas-run government media office called the attacks a “blatant violation of all international and humanitarian conventions”.

In a statement, the Israeli PM’s office said Mr Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz ordered the IDF to “act forcefully” against Hamas.

It came after the militant group “repeatedly refused to release our hostages and rejected all offers it received from the US presidential envoy, Steve Witkoff, and from the mediators”.

“The operational plan was presented late last week by the IDF and approved by the political echelon,” the statement added.

In a passionate speech on Tuesday, the Palestinian ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour, said “we want peace”, adding that the choice facing the world was “crystal clear”.

He urged the assembly to “act with us to make peace… make war not acceptable… and [for] ceasefire to prevail”.

Brett Jonathan Miller, Israel’s deputy permanent representative at the UN reaffirmed their commitment to defeating Hamas and bringing home “every last hostage”.

He said a return to fighting was “a necessity” because the militant group had failed to release those being held and “repeatedly rejected all offers made by the US and the mediating countries”.

The UK’s ambassador to Israel, Simon Walters, said on X Israel’s attacks will neither help defeat Hamas nor bring hostages home and will only cause “more death”.

There are 59 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas – 24 of whom are still believed to be alive.

For their release, Hamas wanted the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and an end to hostilities as part of the second phase of the deal.

Hamas, the militant group running Gaza and whose massacre of 1,200 people in southern Israel on 7 October 2023 sparked Israel’s powerful bombing of the enclave, has claimed it is “working with mediators to curb the aggression” seen on Tuesday.

“Hamas adhered to the ceasefire agreement and implemented it precisely, but the Israeli occupation reneged on its commitment and reversed it by resuming aggression and war,” an official said.

More than 48,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s retaliatory campaign since October 2023, Gazan health officials say.

‘I operated on children overnight – most of them are going to die’

A surgeon working in Gaza has described the “utter carnage and destruction” he witnessed on Tuesday morning during Israel’s air attack.

Dr Feroze Sidhwa is working at the Nasser Medical Complex in Deir Al Balah, where he said most of the people he has seen who were killed were women and children.

“I did six operations overnight,” he told Sky News Breakfast presenter Wilfred Frost.

“Half of them were small children, probably six and below, I wasn’t exactly sure. Most of them are going to die, unfortunately.”

He said this “carnage” is what should be expected “when you drop bombs on tents”.

The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to convene later on Tuesday for a briefing on Gaza.

UN High Commissioner Volker Turk said: “I am horrified by last night’s Israeli airstrikes and shelling in Gaza, which killed hundreds, according to the Ministry of Health in the strip.

“This will add tragedy onto tragedy.”

‘Unilaterally ending the ceasefire’

According to the Reuters news agency, a senior Hamas official said Israel was unilaterally ending the ceasefire agreement.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a Fox News interview that the Trump administration was consulted by Israel about the airstrikes on Monday.

Analysis: Israel is following through on its threat

The waves of airstrikes and tank fire throughout the night came as a surprise and brought an end to a ceasefire that lasted almost two months.

Only a small circle of IDF military commanders were aware of the plans, so Hamas had no forewarning. Neither did the civilians of Gaza, who have started to slowly rebuild what they can of their lives following the devastating war.

The IDF says it is targeting mid-ranking Hamas officials, although I’ve also seen pictures of dead and wounded children amongst the casualties.

Talks to extend the ceasefire and release more hostages had been ongoing in recent days, but Hamas and Israel couldn’t agree on the format of a continued truce.

Israel had already cut off humanitarian deliveries into Gaza and threatened a resumption of the war if Hamas didn’t change its position – they are now following through on that threat.

Israeli intelligence will have spent the last seven weeks of ceasefire gathering information of living Hamas commanders – these airstrikes will be an attempt to take them out and put pressure on Hamas to agree the ceasefire deal that Israel, and Washington, wants.

If they don’t, the IDF has already drawn up plans for an extensive campaign, and ground operations will follow. They have the White House’s backing.

‘Not a surprise’

The IDF and Shin Bet described the strikes as “extensive” – and said they were against “terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip”.

Last week, the Gaza health ministry said nine Palestinians, including three journalists, were killed in an Israeli airstrike in the northern town of Beit Lahia.

A Palestinian source who lives in central Gaza told Sky News’ US correspondent Mark Stone that the strikes were “not a surprise”, saying: “I guess the strongest ones can do whatever they want.”

The source then said “we were sure that this war wouldn’t end” and added: “I wish they (Israel) would open the Rafah border crossing (into Egypt). I wish to leave. I cannot take it anymore.”

It comes almost two months after a three-phase ceasefire was reached by Hamas and Israel to pause the war.

Over the first phase of the ceasefire, which lasted six weeks, Hamas released 33 Israeli hostages held in Gaza and five Thai nationals, in exchange for about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

But since the first phase officially concluded, both Israel and Hamas have failed to agree on how to progress with the second phase – which would see the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.

‘We are shocked’

Izzat al-Risheq, a senior Hamas official, said Mr Netanyahu’s decision to return to war amounts to a “death sentence” for the remaining hostages.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum hit out at the Israeli government’s decision to resume airstrikes in Gaza and accused it of backing out of the ceasefire, saying it “chose to give up on the hostages”.

“We are shocked, angry and terrified by the deliberate dismantling of the process to return our loved ones from the terrible captivity of Hamas,” the group said in a statement.

Mr Netanyahu’s decision to launch fresh airstrikes on the besieged enclave of Gaza comes as he faces mounting pressure at home over his handling of the hostage crisis.

Furthermore, his latest testimony in a long-running corruption trial was cancelled after the strikes, which resumed during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

US Middle East envoy Mr Witkoff had proposed extending the first phase of the ceasefire through to the end of Ramadan and Passover or until 20 April, which Hamas rejected.

At the start of March, Israel said it stopped all goods and supplies to Gaza after claiming Hamas was refusing to “accept the Witkoff outline for continuing the talks, which Israel agreed to”.

Hamas called it “a war crime and a blatant attack”.

Five days later, Israel said it had cut off the electricity supply to Gaza.