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A year ago, there was little holiday cheer at Affirm. The point-of-sale lender was confronting rising interest rates, recession fears and weakening consumer spending. Affirm shares ended 2022 down 90%, wiping out billions of dollars in market value.

Affirm investors are wrapping up 2023 in a much different mood.

The stock skyrocketed 430% in 2023, as of Wednesday’s close, outperforming all other U.S. tech companies valued at $5 billion or more. The next-best performer was Coinbase, which shot up 423% largely because of bitcoin’s rebound.

With the Federal Reserve setting the stage for interest rate cuts in the year ahead and more retailers signing onto Affirm’s buy now, pay later offerings, or BNPL, fear of a doomsday scenario for the company has faded. Shares of Affirm got a big boost in November after the company inked an expanded partnership with Amazon, and BNPL purchases hit an all-time high on Cyber Monday.

“The expectation was the consumer was going to be toast, unemployment was going to pick up and higher interest rates would destroy everything, and the exact opposite has happened on all fronts,” said Tom Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital, which doesn’t have a position in the stock. “So that’s why you have a scenario where Affirm can start to perform.”

Created in 2012 by PayPal co-founder Max Levchin, Affirm is competing with companies including Klarna, Block’s Afterpay and Zip in the burgeoning BNPL market. Shoppers who choose to pay with a BNPL service split their purchase into four or more installments typically over a period of three months to a year, without accruing compounding interest. The lenders make money from interest payments and by charging merchants fees to offer their lending services.

Retailers benefit by giving consumers another option for purchasing a skateboard, watch or a gift for a family member, and one that can come with less sticker shock, resulting in fewer abandoned carts.

Affirm’s run-up

Affirm made its public market debut on the Nasdaq in January 2021, as the Covid-19 pandemic was driving a surge in adoption of BNPL services. Shoppers flush with stimulus checks used the small loans when buying clothes, electronics and Peloton exercise bikes, which at one point accounted for 30% of Affirm’s revenue. Online storefronts rushed to add BNPL as an option at checkout.

But by early 2022, Affirm’s share price had fallen more than 60% from its 2021 peak. The rest of the year was just as gloomy as soaring interest rates made it more expensive for Affirm to borrow money to fund installment loans. In February 2023, Affirm cut 19% of its workforce, and executives said macro headwinds and “negative consumer sentiment” would likely persist for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Affirm shares soar on 'buy now, pay later' deal with Amazon

As it turns out, they were overly bearish.

Affirm shares started climbing higher in August after the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report. The company picked up new merchant deals in sectors beyond retail, such as travel, wireless, ticketing and health care. The stock has more than doubled in the fourth quarter, boosted by an announcement last week that Affirm would offer BNPL loans at Walmart‘s self-checkout kiosks.

Even with their dramatic bounce back, Affirm shares are about 70% below their high in November 2021.

Heading into 2024, BNPL lenders face cooling inflation and an optimistic interest rate environment.

Dan Dolev, managing director at Mizuho Securities, said Affirm is in a strong position to retain users. He pointed to new merchant deals and the expanding market for BNPL offerings in physical stores. Affirm says 16.9 million people have used its services, and the company counts more than 266,000 merchant partners.

Affirm is eyeing international expansion and has launched a debit card that lets customers pay upfront or in installments. Affirm announced at its investor day last month that it plans to introduce a spending account tied to its debit card that will allow for ATM access and direct deposit capability.

“The next year or two years are going to be something very different,” said Dolev, who has a buy rating on Affirm shares. “Now they’ve got the brand, and what are they going to do with it? They’re going to turn it into a full-fledged financial services firm.”

‘David against Goliath’

Hayes sees more cause for skepticism. He said Affirm faces an “uphill battle” competing with entrenched operators such as PayPal and Block, as well as credit card companies such as American Express, Citi and Chase that have jumped into installment loans.

“It’s David against Goliath, and Goliath is going to win,” Hayes said.

Hayes said Affirm is going down a similar path to online lender SoFi, trying to “have a thousand different projects, and say we’re as big as JPMorgan, but at the end of the day, it’s just simply not going to work.”

BNPL lenders also face heightened risk of users failing to make payments on time. A March report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found BNPL users were on average more likely to have higher levels of credit card debt. BNPL borrowers also tend to have lower credit scores, the CFPB said, with an average score in the subprime range of 580 to 669.

The Affirm website home screen is displayed on a laptop in an arranged photograph taken in Little Falls, New Jersey, on Dec. 9, 2020.

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

An Affirm spokesperson didn’t provide a comment for this story but pointed to past comments from company executives.

“As our network grows, our moats get deeper,” Levchin said at the company’s investor forum in November. “We get more data. We underwrite more transactions. We meet more people.”

Affirm’s defaults remain low by industry standards. Average delinquency rates for peers, such as LendingClub, SoFi, Upstart and OneMain Financial, increased from 5.7% to 6.3% between January and November, while Affirm’s delinquency rate fell from 2.8% to 2.6%, Jefferies analysts wrote in a report last month.

Affirm says it bases loan decisions on a variety of data points in addition to a user’s credit score.

“Our process involves looking at credit report data, but could also involve some Affirm-specific stuff, like what we know about the merchant and the thing they are about to sell you,” Levchin said in a release last year.

As BNPL adoption grows, regulators are keeping a close eye on the space. Last week, three U.S. senators penned a letter to the CFPB urging the agency to monitor the uptick in BNPL usage during the holidays, saying it could leave consumers overextended. The CFPB announced in September 2022 that it would subject BNPL to greater oversight, in line with credit card companies.

Wells Fargo issued a report earlier this month that described BNPL loans as “phantom debt” that may be lulling “consumers into a false security in which many small payments add up to one big problem.” As it stands today, the industry is “not a major problem for consumer spending yet,” Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery Grein wrote.

Since BNPL loans are not currently reported to major credit reporting agencies, they wrote, there is “no way to know when this phantom debt could create substantial problems for the consumer and the broader economy.”

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Britain expands AI safety institute to San Francisco amid scrutiny over regulatory shortcomings

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Britain expands AI safety institute to San Francisco amid scrutiny over regulatory shortcomings

An aerial view of the city of San Francisco skyline and the Golden Gate Bridge in California, October 28, 2021.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

LONDON — The British government is expanding its facility for testing “frontier” artificial intelligence models to the United States, in a bid to further its image as a top global player tackling the risks of the tech and to increase cooperation with the U.S. as governments around the world jostle for AI leadership.

The government on Monday announced it would open a U.S. counterpart to its AI safety summit, a state-backed body focused on testing advanced AI systems to ensure they’re safe, in San Francisco this summer.

The U.S. iteration of the AI Safety Institute will aim to recruit a team of technical staff headed up by a research director. In London, the institute currently has a team of 30. It is chaired by Ian Hogarth, a prominent British tech entrepreneur who founded the music concert discovery site Songkick.

In a statement, U.K. Technology Minister Michelle Donelan said the AI Safety Summit’s U.S. rollout “represents British leadership in AI in action.”

“It is a pivotal moment in the U.K.’s ability to study both the risks and potential of AI from a global lens, strengthening our partnership with the U.S. and paving the way for other countries to tap into our expertise as we continue to lead the world on AI safety.”

The expansion “will allow the U.K. to tap into the wealth of tech talent available in the Bay Area, engage with the world’s largest AI labs headquartered in both London and San Francisco, and cement relationships with the United States to advance AI safety for the public interest,” the government said.

San Francisco is the home of OpenAI, the Microsoft-backed company behind viral AI chatbot ChatGPT.

The AI Safety Institute was established in November 2023 during the AI Safety Summit, a global event held in England’s Bletchley Park, the home of World War II code breakers, that sought to boost cross-border cooperation on AI safety.

The expansion of the AI Safety Institute to the U.S. comes on the eve of the AI Seoul Summit in South Korea, which was first proposed at the U.K. summit in Bletchley Park last year. The Seoul summit will take place across Tuesday and Wednesday.

The government said that, since the AI Safety Institute was established in November, it’s made progress in evaluating frontier AI models from some of the industry’s leading players.

It said Monday that several AI models completed cybersecurity challenges but struggle to complete more advanced challenges, while several models demonstrated PhD-level knowledge of chemistry and biology.

Meanwhile, all models tested by the institute remained highly vulnerable to “jailbreaks,” where users trick them into producing responses they’re not permitted to under their content guidelines, while some would produce harmful outputs even without attempts to circumvent safeguards.

Tested models were also unable to complete more complex, time-consuming tasks without humans there to oversee them, according to the government.

It didn’t name the AI models that were tested. The government previously got OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic to agree to opening their coveted AI models up to the government to help inform research into the risks associated with their systems.

The development comes as Britain has faced criticism for not introducing formal regulations for AI, while other jurisdictions, like the European Union, race ahead with AI-tailored laws.

The EU’s landmark AI Act, which is the first major legislation for AI of its kind, is expected to become a blueprint for global AI regulations once it is approved by all EU member states and enters into force.

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$9 billion travel tech firm Navan on track to hit profitability this year and ‘not far’ from IPO, CEO says

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 billion travel tech firm Navan on track to hit profitability this year and 'not far' from IPO, CEO says

TripActions CEO Ariel Cohen

TripActions

The boss of travel and expense management platform Navan told CNBC he’s preparing the company to get its business into shape for an eventual initial public offering this year, in another sign leaders of privately-held startups are getting more optimistic about their prospects in the public markets.

Asked about when Navan would choose to go public, the firm’s CEO and co-founder Ariel Cohen said the company is close to reaching that milestone. “We can see the signals,” he said, adding that Navan has been adjusting its leadership structure and making changes to its board in a signal of maturity.

Last month saw Navan announce the return of Rich Liu, formerly Navan’s chief revenue officer and “an expert on scaling companies from seed to IPO and beyond,” to the business as CEO of Navan Travel, the company’s travel division.

Amy Butte, the former chief financial officer of the New York Stock Exchange who oversaw the U.S. exchange operator’s transition to a public company in 2006, was also appointed to Navan’s board of directors as audit committee chair.

“I don’t want to give a date,” Cohen told CNBC, adding that he’s not even told his own family a date for when he expects Navan to go public — let alone his board and Navan employees. “At the end of the day, there are things that are out of my control.”

“The market can collapse. There are elections in the U.S. There are wars. So I never actually promise things to people if I don’t know that the delivery is in my control,” he added.

While Cohen wouldn’t commit to a date for Navan’s eventual IPO, he said the business was “not far” from being ready for a stock market listing. The company is on track to become cash-flow positive and achieve profitability for the first time this year, he said.

“The timing will need to include several things,” he said. “Today, in this market, to be public, you need to be profitable. We are not far from that, but we are not there. We’re going to be there this year. And it’s not easy to do it while you’re growing fast.”

Cohen said he’s also keeping a wary eye on the market — but added that although, previously, investors would have seen a company like his as dependent on buoyant market sentiment surrounding technology, today he sees the firm as “mature enough” to go public independent of the market backdrop.

Navan CEO Ariel Cohen talks partnering with Citi

Navan is now growing revenues by around 40% on average, according to Cohen, with the company’s fintech business seeing faster growth (100%) than its travel business (30%).

Founded in 2015 as TripActions, Navan began life as a travel management platform for businesses, seeking to provide a smoother experience to travel agents and incumbent players like American Express, BCD Travel, and SAP Concur. The company counts the likes of Unilever and Christie’s as clients.

The firm subsequently expanded into expensing and payments with solutions for automating linking credit cards to a single platform and automating expenses.

Navan is backed by major investors including Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, Goldman Sachs, and Lightspeed. Navan has raised more than $1.5 billion in venture funding to date and was last valued at $9.2 billion. It competes with Spanish startup TravelPerk, which was most recently valued at $1.4 billion.

Navan introduced a big evolution of that product last year with the arrival of Navan Connect, a new expensing product.

Most corporate card startups, like Brex and Ramp, offer users their own branded corporate smart cards. But Navan’s Connect feature, which it’s rolled out in partnership with Citi, lets businesses offer automated expense management and reconciliation without having to change corporate card provider.

Like other tech firms, Navan has been making a big investment into artificial intelligence. The company rolled out its own AI personal assistant, called Ava, last year. The tool uses generative AI to help travelers, travel admins, and finance managers make travel plans and budget effectively.

Ava — which stands for automated virtual assistant — now processes around 150,000 monthly chats, more than 35% of which are managed to completion as of April 2024, according to Navan.

Cohen said Navan is planning to roll out an even more personalized version of Ava’s AI assistant, which can generate travel plans for someone based on their past behavior, to even greater accuracy in six months’ time.

Navan was named on the 2024 edition of CNBC’s Disruptor 50 list.

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Musk launches SpaceX’s Starlink internet services in Indonesia, says more investments could come

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Musk launches SpaceX’s Starlink internet services in Indonesia, says more investments could come

Tech billionaire Elon Musk (2nd L) speaks next to Indonesia’s Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin (L) during a ceremony held to inaugurate satellite unit Starlink at a community health center in Denpasar on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali on May 19, 2024. Musk launched on May 19 his Starlink service on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali as the country aims to extend internet to its remote areas. Millions of people in Indonesia, a vast archipelago of more than 17,000 islands, are not currently hooked up to reliable internet services. (Photo by SONNY TUMBELAKA / AFP) (Photo by SONNY TUMBELAKA/AFP via Getty Images)

Sonny Tumbelaka | Afp | Getty Images

Elon Musk has launched SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet services in Indonesia as the Southeast Asian nation seeks to boost internet connectivity in remote areas.

The inauguration took place at a community health center in Bali on Sunday, with the SpaceX founder telling local media he was “very excited” to bring internet services to areas with limited or no connectivity and that internet connectivity can be “a life-saver to remote medical clinics.”

“It is really important to emphasize the importance of internet connectivity and how much of a life-changer and a life-saver it can be,” Musk told local media on Sunday.

SpaceX, which manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft, is also a developer of Starlink satellites which provide internet connectivity to remote locations. Starlink is already available in Southeast Asia in Malaysia and the Philippines.

Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelago with more than 17,000 islands, faces an urban-rural connectivity divide where millions of people living in rural areas have limited or no access to internet services.

Communication and Informatics Minister Budi Arie Setiadi previously said Starlink would help Indonesia extend internet access to regions not covered by local internet providers, according to Indonesian news agency Antara.

Elon Musk meets with China's Premier Li Qiang to discuss Tesla, full-self driving and restrictions

The minister also tried to dispel concerns that Starlink’s entry would hurt local internet providers.

“When you have access to the internet, you can learn anything,” said Musk, who is also the CEO of electric carmaker Tesla. “But if you don’t have internet connectivity, it is very difficult to learn.”

“And if you have goods and services you wish to sell to the world, and even if you are in a remote village, you can now do so with internet connection. So you can bring a lot of prosperity to [remote] communities,” said Musk.

When asked about whether he has plans to invest in Indonesia’s electric vehicle sector as well, Musk said he was focused on Starlink first.

“It’s very likely that my companies will invest in Indonesia,” said Musk.

Indonesia minister Luhut Pandjaitan said Musk is considering to set up an EV battery plant in the country, after the tech leader met with President Joko Widodo on Monday, according to Reuters.

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