Connect with us

Published

on

Monitors display Coinbase signage during the company’s initial public offering at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York on April 14, 2021.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

For crypto bulls, the most lucrative bets in 2023 were in the stock market.

While bitcoin rallied over 150% for the year, shares of Coinbase, MicroStrategy and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which are all tied closely to the digital currency, did substantially better, rising more than 300% in value. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital soared 688%.

Not only have those stocks outperformed the primary cryptocurrency, but they’ve been among the biggest gainers across the whole U.S. market. In the universe of publicly traded U.S. businesses with a market value of at least $5 billion, the four bitcoin-tied stocks were among the eight best performers, according to FactSet.

The crypto boom represents a major bounce back from 2022, when coin prices plummeted, taking related equities down with them. A year highlighted by hedge fund collapses, crypto lender failures and crippling losses at miners was punctuated in November 2022, when crypto exchange FTX spiraled into bankruptcy, leading to the arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried on fraud charges.

Last month, a jury in New York convicted Bankman-Fried on seven criminal counts, setting the 31-year-old former billionaire up for a possible life behind bars. Weeks later, Changpeng Zhao, founder of crypto exchange Binance, pleaded guilty and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice. He faces a possible prison sentence of 18 months or longer.

By the time of Bankman-Fried’s conviction and Zhao’s plea deal, the damage to the broader crypto market had mostly been realized, and investors were looking to the future. One of the biggest drivers for bitcoin this year was an easing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, which created a more attractive case for riskier assets.

Prices were also bolstered by the upcoming bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years and is scheduled for May 2024. In the halving process, the reward for mining is cut in half, capping the supply of bitcoin.

Additional buying was sparked by the potential for a flurry of bitcoin exchange-traded funds popping up in the new year.

“It’s just more fuel for a fire,” said Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz, in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” last week. “Crypto stocks are trading almost like a mania.”

Crypto stocks are trading 'almost like a mania', says Galaxy Digital's Michael Novogratz

Bitcoin has climbed to $42,683 as of Tuesday, a massive win for investors who got in at the beginning of the year, when the price was around $16,500. But the leading cryptocurrency is still 38% below its record high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

Among companies closely tied to bitcoin and valued at $5 billion or more, the best-performing stock this year was Marathon, a mining firm that just eclipsed that market cap level last week thanks to a 125% surge in December as of Tuesday’s close. On Wednesday, the shares surged another 15%.

Last year at this time, Marathon was hanging on by a thread. The company was in the midst of a quarter that ended with a loss of almost $400 million on sales of just $28.4 million because of tumbling bitcoin prices, a power outage at its facility in Montana and Marathon’s financial exposure to bankrupt miner Compute North.

“It was pretty dire times,” Marathon CEO Fred Thiel said in an interview last week.

Bitcoin mining is an expensive operation because of the high energy costs required to operate the supercomputers. A drop in bitcoin prices means a sharp reduction in the money producers make selling the coins they mine, even as their energy bills get little relief.

Thiel said the company was able to sell equity and was in the fortunate position of not having debt other than a convertible note.

The picture has brightened dramatically in 2023. Last month, Marathon reported third-quarter net income of $64.1 million, as revenue jumped from a year earlier to $97.8 million. Now the company is in expansion mode, and last week announced the purchase of its first two fully owned bitcoin mining sites — one in Texas and one in Nebraska — for $178.6 million.

The acquisitions increased the size of Marathon’s mining portfolio by 56% to 910 megawatts of capacity.

“By vertically integrating, we take the profit margin for the third party out and we can run the site the way we want to run it,” Thiel said. Much of the technology Marathon has been developing, he said, is focused on increased efficiency, “which in an up market people will ignore” because high prices lead to high margins.

Thiel is trying to make sure the company is on sound financial footing the next time there’s a downturn in bitcoin prices. That means bringing down production costs and creating more ways to sell energy back to the grid. He’s also optimistic that through energy harvesting — taking methane gas and converting it to sellable electricity — Marathon will eventually have much more diverse revenue streams.

One of the company’s goals by 2028, Thiel said, is to bring bitcoin mining down to 50% of revenue.

Brian Armstrong, co-founder and chief executive officer of Coinbase Inc., speaks during the Singapore Fintech Festival, in Singapore, Nov. 4, 2022.

Bryan van der Beek | Bloomberg | Getty Images

‘Multiple sources of revenue’

Outside of the mining universe, the best-performing crypto stock in the U.S. this year is Coinbase, which has soared 386% as of Tuesday’s close. It rose 7.7% on Wednesday.

As the only major publicly traded crypto exchange in the U.S., Coinbase has long been a popular way to buy and trade cryptocurrencies in its home market. But with the struggles at Binance, the largest exchange in the world, Coinbase picked up market share during non-U.S. trading hours, according to a report from research firm Kaiko in late November.

Shortly after Zhao’s plea deal, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC that the news amounted to “a vindication of the long-term strategy that we’ve taken to focus on compliance, make sure we were building a trusted company.”

Coinbase’s revenue and stock price are still way below where they were during the heyday of crypto trading in 2021, when retail investors were jumping into the market to buy all sorts of digital currencies, including gimmicks like Dogecoin. But the business has stabilized following drastic cost-cutting measures starting last year and extending into early 2023.

Coinbase also offers investors a bit of diversity outside of bitcoin. In the third quarter, bitcoin accounted for only 37% of transaction revenue at Coinbase, while ethereum made up 18% and other crypto assets amounted to 46%. Additionally, the combination of interest income and stablecoin revenue (earned through USDC reserves) more than doubled in the latest quarter to $212 million due to higher interest rates.

Transaction revenue now accounts for less than half of Coinbase’s net revenue, down from 96% at the time of the company’s public market debut in 2021.

“We made a big effort around the time we went public to start diversifying our revenue,” Armstrong said in an interview last week with CNBC. “Now we have multiple sources of revenue, some of them in a high interest rate environment go up, some of them in a low interest environment go up. That means revenue has started to become more predictable.”

Crypto super PAC raises $78 million

The other top stock performers in crypto are much more closely tied to bitcoin.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is up 330% this year. GBTC hit the over-the-counter market in 2015 as the first publicly traded bitcoin fund in the U.S., offering investors a way to passively own bitcoin. The challenge for investors in the past has been that GBTC is a closed-end fund, which makes it less liquid than an ETF.

Late last year, in the darkest days of crypto, GBTC’s discount to its net asset value approached 50%, meaning its market cap was about half the value of the bitcoin it owned. As of Dec. 22, that discount had narrowed to 5.6%, the lowest since early 2021. The fund currently owns about $26.6 billion worth of bitcoin and has a market cap of $24.7 billion.

In addition to the rally in bitcoin this year, GBTC is getting a boost from the prospects that it will get regulatory clearance next year to convert to an ETF, a move that would allow it to trade through a traditional stock exchange and gain liquidity measures that would bring its market value more in alignment with its NAV.

Grayscale said in a regulatory filing Tuesday that Barry Silbert, CEO of parent company Digital Currency Group, is resigning as chairman of Grayscale Investments and exiting the board, effective Jan. 1. No reason for his departure was provided. He’s being succeeded as chairman by Mark Shifke, DCG’s finance chief.

Big investors join the party

The Securities and Exchange Commission met with Grayscale in November and has been formally engaging with other asset managers about the issuance of bitcoin ETFs.

Those meetings began after an appeals court sided in August with Grayscale in a lawsuit against the regulator, which had opposed the firm’s efforts on concern that investors would lack sufficient protections. Other large money managers, such as BlackRock, Fidelity Investments and Invesco, have taken steps to create their own funds.

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” last week that the “hopeful approval” for ETFs will bring in new participants, most notably investment advisors who oversee roughly $30 trillion in the U.S. but have restrictions on what they can buy.

“When my team had our court victory, I think that certainly unlocked a lot of optimism amongst investors about GBTC and the prospects for it to uplist as a spot bitcoin ETF,” Sonnenshein said. “As we turn the corner into the new year, I know there’s a lot of focus on that from the investment community.”

There's a lot of market optimism for Bitcoin into next year, says Grayscale CEO

In the absence of an accessible ETF to date, many investors have flocked to MicroStrategy as a way to buy bitcoin.

Founded in 1989 as a business intelligence software company, MicroStrategy now gets the vast majority of its value from the 174,530 bitcoins it owned as of the end of November, currently worth $7.4 billion. The stock’s 327% jump this year has lifted the company’s market cap to $8.3 billion. Its software and services business generated about $130 million in sales in the third quarter.

The company said in a regulatory filing on Wednesday that it purchased an addition 14,620 bitcoins from Nov. 30 to Dec. 26 for $615.7 million, bringing its total to 189,150 bitcoins. The stock jumped 11%.

MicroStrategy announced its plan to invest in bitcoin in mid-2020, disclosing in an earnings call that it would commit $250 million over the next 12 months to “one or more alternative assets,” which could include digital currencies like bitcoin. At the time, the company’s market cap was about $1.1 billion.

In the third quarter of 2020, MicroStrategy acquired 38,250 bitcoins for a total of $425 million.

Phong Le, who was elevated to CEO from CFO last year, said on the October 2020 earnings call that MicroStrategy’s investment in bitcoin allowed it to “tap into the passion of the broader crypto market,” adding that, “We’ve seen a notable and unexpected benefit from our investment in bitcoin in elevating the profile of the company.”

Since then, MicroStrategy has come to be known as a bitcoin proxy. Co-founder and ex-CEO Michael Saylor is one of the cryptocurrency’s principal evangelists, even co-authoring a book on the subject last year called “What is Money?”

“The one thing that we can count on is that bitcoin goes forward in the year 2024 and a strategy built around bitcoin is generally a pretty safe one for institutions,” Saylor said in an interview Dec. 18 on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “Education makes a difference. Institutional adoption makes a difference. The spot ETF news is good news. Loosening of monetary policy is good news.”

Bitcoin will continue to move forward in 2024, says MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor

Saylor is also optimistic about a mark-to-market accounting rule set to go into effect in 2025 (though companies can choose to adopt it earlier) that changes how companies record crypto assets. Instead of being classified as intangible assets that have to be marked down if the value drops below the purchase price, crypto will be in a separate category and companies will mark it up or down based on where it’s trading.

Saylor says the new measure provides an incentive for companies with billions of dollars of cash sitting on their balance sheets to put some of that money to work in bitcoin.

As good of a year as it’s been for the bitcoin bulls, it’s been equally painful for the bears.

Short sellers, or investors who bet on a drop in stock prices, have lost a combined $6.3 billion on their positions against Coinbase, MicroStrategy and Marathon, according to data supplied by S3 Partners last week. In the first three quarters of the year, crypto shorts spent $2.19 billion buying the stocks to reduce their exposure, the firm said.

There’s still a hefty dose of skepticism. More than 23% of Marathon’s shares available for trading are sold short, while MicroStrategy’s short interest-to-float ratio is about 21% and Coinbase’s sits at 14%. The average among U.S. stocks is 5%, according to S3.

Dimon vs. the evangelists

But risk remains for the bitcoin believers.

While enthusiasts like Saylor are betting on the long-term appreciation of the asset as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value, new investors are jumping into a historically volatile market.

When bitcoin fell by more than 60% in 2022, Coinbase, GBTC and MicroStrategy each dropped by at least 74%. Marathon lost 90% of its value and some of its peers went out of business.

Even with a more stable environment in 2023, crypto still has high-profile detractors like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who told the Senate Banking Committee earlier this month that, “The only true use case for it is criminals, drug traffickers … money laundering, tax avoidance.”

“If I was the government, I’d close it down,” he said.

But that prospect is looking less likely than ever as more institutional money flows into bitcoin as an investment vehicle. In mid-December, analysts at BTIG lifted their price target on MicroStrategy to $690 from $560, citing improving sentiment and the approaching bitcoin halving.

“Our expectation is that the approval of a spot BTC ETF would increase regulatory clarity around bitcoin, which should give large institutional investors, such as insurance companies, greater comfort investing in bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.

Galaxy Digital’s Novogratz says that “broadly we’re still in bull market phase,” noting that there’s a constant and inherent scarcity of bitcoin supply. Novogratz expects bitcoin to eclipse its record high next year, and says that among respected investors, “I can give you 50 of them on the other side of the table from Jamie Dimon.”

In the near term, Novogratz cautions that with so much momentum coming from crypto traders, the tide could turn and cause a correction.

“I’m a little nervous because it feels so good,” he said.

— CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos contributed to this report

WATCH: The crypto market is going to ‘rally further, research firm says

The cryptocurrency market will probably rally further, analyst says

Continue Reading

Technology

Apple scores big victory with ‘F1,’ but AI is still a major problem in Cupertino

Published

on

By

Apple scores big victory with 'F1,' but AI is still a major problem in Cupertino

Formula One F1 – United States Grand Prix – Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Texas, U.S. – October 23, 2022 Tim Cook waves the chequered flag to the race winner Red Bull’s Max Verstappen 

Mike Segar | Reuters

Apple had two major launches last month. They couldn’t have been more different.

First, Apple revealed some of the artificial intelligence advancements it had been working on in the past year when it released developer versions of its operating systems to muted applause at its annual developer’s conference, WWDC. Then, at the end of the month, Apple hit the red carpet as its first true blockbuster movie, “F1,” debuted to over $155 million — and glowing reviews — in its first weekend.

While “F1” was a victory lap for Apple, highlighting the strength of its long-term outlook, the growth of its services business and its ability to tap into culture, Wall Street’s reaction to the company’s AI announcements at WWDC suggest there’s some trouble underneath the hood.

“F1” showed Apple at its best — in particular, its ability to invest in new, long-term projects. When Apple TV+ launched in 2019, it had only a handful of original shows and one movie, a film festival darling called “Hala” that didn’t even share its box office revenue.

Despite Apple TV+ being written off as a costly side-project, Apple stuck with its plan over the years, expanding its staff and operation in Culver City, California. That allowed the company to build up Hollywood connections, especially for TV shows, and build an entertainment track record. Now, an Apple Original can lead the box office on a summer weekend, the prime season for blockbuster films.

The success of “F1” also highlights Apple’s significant marketing machine and ability to get big-name talent to appear with its leadership. Apple pulled out all the stops to market the movie, including using its Wallet app to send a push notification with a discount for tickets to the film. To promote “F1,” Cook appeared with movie star Brad Pitt at an Apple store in New York and posted a video with actual F1 racer Lewis Hamilton, who was one of the film’s producers.

(L-R) Brad Pitt, Lewis Hamilton, Tim Cook, and Damson Idris attend the World Premiere of “F1: The Movie” in Times Square on June 16, 2025 in New York City.

Jamie Mccarthy | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Although Apple services chief Eddy Cue said in a recent interview that Apple needs the its film business to be profitable to “continue to do great things,” “F1” isn’t just about the bottom line for the company.

Apple’s Hollywood productions are perhaps the most prominent face of the company’s services business, a profit engine that has been an investor favorite since the iPhone maker started highlighting the division in 2016.

Films will only ever be a small fraction of the services unit, which also includes payments, iCloud subscriptions, magazine bundles, Apple Music, game bundles, warranties, fees related to digital payments and ad sales. Plus, even the biggest box office smashes would be small on Apple’s scale — the company does over $1 billion in sales on average every day.

But movies are the only services component that can get celebrities like Pitt or George Clooney to appear next to an Apple logo — and the success of “F1” means that Apple could do more big popcorn films in the future.

“Nothing breeds success or inspires future investment like a current success,” said Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian.

But if “F1” is a sign that Apple’s services business is in full throttle, the company’s AI struggles are a “check engine” light that won’t turn off.

Replacing Siri’s engine

At WWDC last month, Wall Street was eager to hear about the company’s plans for Apple Intelligence, its suite of AI features that it first revealed in 2024. Apple Intelligence, which is a key tenet of the company’s hardware products, had a rollout marred by delays and underwhelming features.

Apple spent most of WWDC going over smaller machine learning features, but did not reveal what investors and consumers increasingly want: A sophisticated Siri that can converse fluidly and get stuff done, like making a restaurant reservation. In the age of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude and Google’s Gemini, the expectation of AI assistants among consumers is growing beyond “Siri, how’s the weather?”

The company had previewed a significantly improved Siri in the summer of 2024, but earlier this year, those features were delayed to sometime in 2026. At WWDC, Apple didn’t offer any updates about the improved Siri beyond that the company was “continuing its work to deliver” the features in the “coming year.” Some observers reduced their expectations for Apple’s AI after the conference.

“Current expectations for Apple Intelligence to kickstart a super upgrade cycle are too high, in our view,” wrote Jefferies analysts this week.

Siri should be an example of how Apple’s ability to improve products and projects over the long-term makes it tough to compete with.

It beat nearly every other voice assistant to market when it first debuted on iPhones in 2011. Fourteen years later, Siri remains essentially the same one-off, rigid, question-and-answer system that struggles with open-ended questions and dates, even after the invention in recent years of sophisticated voice bots based on generative AI technology that can hold a conversation.

Apple’s strongest rivals, including Android parent Google, have done way more to integrate sophisticated AI assistants into their devices than Apple has. And Google doesn’t have the same reflex against collecting data and cloud processing as privacy-obsessed Apple.

Some analysts have said they believe Apple has a few years before the company’s lack of competitive AI features will start to show up in device sales, given the company’s large installed base and high customer loyalty. But Apple can’t get lapped before it re-enters the race, and its former design guru Jony Ive is now working on new hardware with OpenAI, ramping up the pressure in Cupertino.

“The three-year problem, which is within an investment time frame, is that Android is racing ahead,” Needham senior internet analyst Laura Martin said on CNBC this week.

Apple’s services success with projects like “F1” is an example of what the company can do when it sets clear goals in public and then executes them over extended time-frames.

Its AI strategy could use a similar long-term plan, as customers and investors wonder when Apple will fully embrace the technology that has captivated Silicon Valley.

Wall Street’s anxiety over Apple’s AI struggles was evident this week after Bloomberg reported that Apple was considering replacing Siri’s engine with Anthropic or OpenAI’s technology, as opposed to its own foundation models.

The move, if it were to happen, would contradict one of Apple’s most important strategies in the Cook era: Apple wants to own its core technologies, like the touchscreen, processor, modem and maps software, not buy them from suppliers.

Using external technology would be an admission that Apple Foundation Models aren’t good enough yet for what the company wants to do with Siri.

“They’ve fallen farther and farther behind, and they need to supercharge their generative AI efforts” Martin said. “They can’t do that internally.”

Apple might even pay billions for the use of Anthropic’s AI software, according to the Bloomberg report. If Apple were to pay for AI, it would be a reversal from current services deals, like the search deal with Alphabet where the Cupertino company gets paid $20 billion per year to push iPhone traffic to Google Search.

The company didn’t confirm the report and declined comment, but Wall Street welcomed the report and Apple shares rose.

In the world of AI in Silicon Valley, signing bonuses for the kinds of engineers that can develop new models can range up to $100 million, according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

“I can’t see Apple doing that,” Martin said.

Earlier this week, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg sent a memo bragging about hiring 11 AI experts from companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google’s DeepMind. That came after Zuckerberg hired Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang to lead a new AI division as part of a $14.3 billion deal.

Meta’s not the only company to spend hundreds of millions on AI celebrities to get them in the building. Google spent big to hire away the founders of Character.AI, Microsoft got its AI leader by striking a deal with Inflection and Amazon hired the executive team of Adept to bulk up its AI roster.

Apple, on the other hand, hasn’t announced any big AI hires in recent years. While Cook rubs shoulders with Pitt, the actual race may be passing Apple by.

WATCH: Jefferies upgrades Apple to ‘Hold’

Jefferies upgrades Apple to 'Hold'

Continue Reading

Technology

Musk backs Sen. Paul’s criticism of Trump’s megabill in first comment since it passed

Published

on

By

Musk backs Sen. Paul's criticism of Trump's megabill in first comment since it passed

Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks alongside U.S. President Donald Trump to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who bombarded President Donald Trump‘s signature spending bill for weeks, on Friday made his first comments since the legislation passed.

Musk backed a post on X by Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who said the bill’s budget “explodes the deficit” and continues a pattern of “short-term politicking over long-term sustainability.”

The House of Representatives narrowly passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on Thursday, sending it to Trump to sign into law.

Paul and Musk have been vocal opponents of Trump’s tax and spending bill, and repeatedly called out the potential for the spending package to increase the national debt.

On Monday, Musk called it the “DEBT SLAVERY bill.”

The independent Congressional Budget Office has said the bill could add $3.4 trillion to the $36.2 trillion of U.S. debt over the next decade. The White House has labeled the agency as “partisan” and continuously refuted the CBO’s estimates.

Read more CNBC tech news

The bill includes trillions of dollars in tax cuts, increased spending for immigration enforcement and large cuts to funding for Medicaid and other programs.

It also cuts tax credits and support for solar and wind energy and electric vehicles, a particularly sore spot for Musk, who has several companies that benefit from the programs.

“I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in a social media post in early June as the pair traded insults and threats.

Shares of Tesla plummeted as the feud intensified, with the company losing $152 billion in market cap on June 5 and putting the company below $1 trillion in value. The stock has largely rebounded since, but is still below where it was trading before the ruckus with Trump.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

Tesla one-month stock chart.

— CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger and Erin Doherty contributed to this article.

Continue Reading

Technology

Microsoft layoffs hit 830 workers in home state of Washington

Published

on

By

Microsoft layoffs hit 830 workers in home state of Washington

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella speaks at the Axel Springer building in Berlin on Oct. 17, 2023. He received the annual Axel Springer Award.

Ben Kriemann | Getty Images

Among the thousands of Microsoft employees who lost their jobs in the cutbacks announced this week were 830 staffers in the company’s home state of Washington.

Nearly a dozen game design workers in the state were part of the layoffs, along with three audio designers, two mechanical engineers, one optical engineer and one lab technician, according to a document Microsoft submitted to Washington employment officials.

There were also five individual contributors and one manager at the Microsoft Research division in the cuts, as well as 10 lawyers and six hardware engineers, the document shows.

Microsoft announced plans on Wednesday to eliminate 9,000 jobs, as part of an effort to eliminate redundancy and to encourage employees to focus on more meaningful work by adopting new technologies, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. The person asked not to be named while discussing private matters.

Scores of Microsoft salespeople and video game developers have since come forward on social media to announce their departure. In April, Microsoft said revenue from Xbox content and services grew 8%, trailing overall growth of 13%.

In sales, the company parted ways with 16 customer success account management staff members based in Washington, 28 in sales strategy enablement and another five in sales compensation. One Washington-based government affairs worker was also laid off.

Microsoft eliminated 17 jobs in cloud solution architecture in the state, according to the document. The company’s fastest revenue growth comes from Azure and other cloud services that customers buy based on usage.

CEO Satya Nadella has not publicly commented on the layoffs, and Microsoft didn’t immediately provide a comment about the cuts in Washington. On a conference call with analysts in April, Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said the company had a “focus on cost efficiencies” during the March quarter.

WATCH: Microsoft layoffs not performance-based, largely targeting middle managers

Microsoft layoffs not performance-based, largely targeting middle managers

Continue Reading

Trending