Generative AI’s breakout year produced hefty profits for Nvidia and lofty experiments for others
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Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, at the Hope Global Forums annual meeting in Atlanta on Dec. 11, 2023.
Dustin Chambers | Bloomberg | Getty Images
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has admitted that he was surprised by the popularity of ChatGPT, which was released as a research project a little more than a year ago. His team had spent an entire meeting debating whether it was worth even opening up the chatbot to the public.
As it turns out, OpenAI’s decision to launch ChatGPT in November 2022 became the defining moment for generative artificial intelligence and set the stage for a rush of investments and a mountain of new products and services in 2023.
Some form of generative AI has made its way into virtually every industry, from financial services to biomedical research. Some 95% of utility and energy companies are discussing using generative AI algorithms, according to a July survey.
To see the financial effect of the generative AI rush, you need only to look at Nvidia’s bottom line. The chipmaker’s graphics processing units, or GPUs, are at the heart of the large language models created by OpenAI as well as those from Alphabet, Meta and a growing crop of heavily funded startups all battling for a slice of the generative AI pie.
Through the first three quarters of 2023, Nvidia generated $17.5 billion in net income, up more than sixfold from a year earlier. Its stock price jumped 237% this year, far exceeding any other member of the S&P 500.
Generative AI quickly became the buzzy phrase for corporate earnings calls, as every company needed a narrative. Sometimes, the story was painful, such as when digital education company Chegg said in May that it was seeing a “significant spike in student interest in ChatGPT,” which appears to be “having an impact on our new customer growth rate.” The stock plunged 48% in one day following the warning.
Perhaps no company was less prepared for the generative AI boom than OpenAI itself. In November, Altman was suddenly ousted by the board for a dispute that reportedly had to do with his aggressive push to develop new commercial products at the expense of safety. However, Altman quickly returned to the helm after employees threatened to flee and large investors banded together to fight for his reinstatement.
The public spat included a reshuffling of OpenAI’s board and shined a bright light on the debate raging between AI skeptics and evangelists. While advances in generative AI showcase the potential for technology to unlock all sorts of business opportunities and efficiencies, fears of the algorithms’ perceived power gained equal resonance. Some of the real-life harms for minorities and vulnerable populations showed up in FTC proposals, wrongful arrests, contaminated datasets and more.
Here were some of the key areas for generative AI advancements in 2023:
The Anthropic website on a laptop arranged in New York on Aug. 15, 2023.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Chatbots
ChatGPT opened up the floodgates for investments in chatbots, as it became clear how the input of a few words could produce more thorough and creative responses than ever before.
Nearly two months after launch, ChatGPT broke records as the fastest-growing consumer app in history — until Meta’s Threads dethroned it last summer. ChatGPT now has about 100 million weekly active users, along with more than 92% of Fortune 500 companies using the platform, according to OpenAI.
Earlier this year, Microsoft plunged an additional $10 billion in the company, making it the biggest AI investment of the year, according to PitchBook, and OpenAI is in talks to sell employee shares at a price that would suggest a valuation of $86 billion. According to Bloomberg, the company is in discussions to potentially raise capital at a valuation of $100 billion or more.
Google was caught off guard by ChatGPT’s success and responded by accelerating the public release of its Bard chatbot, powered by its LLM called LaMDA, which stands for Language Model for Dialogue Applications.
Google has been rolling out new Bard features, including integrations with Google Search and a YouTube extension, and recently released Gemini, the new and buzzy AI model to power Bard. Gemini’s launch this month involved a marketing blitz and controversy over an edited video promoting the model’s capabilities.
In addition to its internal investments, Google is one of many big names behind Anthropic, an AI startup that’s currently in talks to raise $750 million at a valuation of $18.4 billion. Founded by former OpenAI research executives, Anthropic is the developer of the chatbot Claude.
In July, Anthropic debuted Claude 2, and said it has the ability to summarize up to about 75,000 words, which could be the length of a book. Users can input large datasets and ask for summaries in the form of a memo, letter or story.
As a category, new generative AI chatbots have been used this year to answer questions about business strategy, as well as to design study guides, offer advice on salary negotiation and spark creative writing prompts. They’ve even assisted in writing wedding vows.
“It’s probably one of the most influential step function changes in technology that we’ve seen,” Jill Chase, investment partner at CapitalG Ventures, told CNBC. Chase said it’s up there with the dawn of the internet and the shift to mobile. “Things like that just open up people’s imaginations,” she said.
Academics and ethicists have voiced significant concerns about the technology’s tendency to fabricate information and to propagate bias. Still, it has quickly made its way into schools, online travel, the medical industry, digital advertising and beyond. Microsoft and IBM have invested increasing amounts in enterprise AI offerings, including development studios for companies to personalize the use of LLMs.
There are plenty of detractors.
Publishers, artists, writers and technologists have been pushed to pursue legal action against companies behind popular generative AI tools, out of concern that their creative content is being used as free training data. John Grisham, George R.R. Martin and other prominent authors sued OpenAI in September over alleged copyright infringement.
This photo taken on Jan. 31, 2023, shows an artificial intelligence manga artist, who goes by the name Rootport, wearing gloves to protect his identity, demonstrating how he produces AI manga during an interview with AFP in Tokyo.
Richard A. Brooks | Afp | Getty Images
Image and video generation
Generative AI for images and video emerged in 2022, due to powerful image generators such as OpenAI’s DALL-E 2, Stable Diffusion and Midjourney, and video-generation AI tools from Meta, Google and Amazon.
While interest in those technologies continues, progress has waned compared to chatbots, according to Brendan Burke, an analyst at PitchBook.
“Multimedia content generation has fallen behind language in the pace of progress,” Burke told CNBC. “The initial excitement with Stable Diffusion in 2022 exposed both the general interest but also the drawbacks of AI content generation. Progress has been incremental this year, yet still disappointing for the most sophisticated content creators.”
Meta’s Instagram recently debuted a feature that allows users to change the background of Stories posts using AI. Google and Amazon have incorporated generative AI tools into advertising technology to create more appealing marketing images.
Some industry leaders say the future of generative AI is “multimodal,” bringing the various mediums together.
“The world is multimodal,” Brad Lightcap, OpenAI’s operating chief, told CNBC in a recent interview. “If you think about the way we as humans process the world and engage with the world, we see things, we hear things, we say things. The world is much bigger than text. So to us, it always felt incomplete for text and code to be the single modalities, the single interfaces that we could have to how powerful these models are and what they can do.”
Agents and assistants
After the chatbot comes the agent.
It’s not just about getting sophisticated answers, but it’s also about using generative AI to be productive in completing tasks. That could be scheduling a group hangout by scanning everyone’s calendar to make sure there are no conflicts, booking travel and activities, buying presents for loved ones or doing a specific job function such as outbound sales.
Last month, OpenAI announced custom GPTs, or customized, niche versions of ChatGPT that users can personalize for getting travel recommendations, recipe help or startup advice. However, the company chose to delay the release of the platform that would popularize different use cases — the “GPT store” — until next year.
One type of AI assistant that has gained popularity is for coding. Take, for example, Microsoft’s GitHub coding repository. GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke wrote in a blog post earlier this year that an average of 46% of all code on GitHub, “across all programming languages,” was AI generated.
Last month, GitHub introduced a more expensive version of its Copilot assistant that can explain and provide recommendations about internal source code.
“Copilot, when it started at the very beginning, was thought to be a tool that could help developers write docs,” Kyle Daigle, GitHub’s chief operating officer, told CNBC in an interview. In the past year, he said, the company has expanded the technology, looking for more places “to help developers collaborate and work together and solve problems outside of just the code.”
But PitchBook’s Burke said coding assistants are in their very early days and currently can only do “a small part” of a developer’s work. That’s true in the broader world, he said.
“Users have found how little AI can do for them this year,” he said. “AI knows a lot, but it can’t do a lot yet. We’re still far away from AI truly being able to do the complex tasks that people are used to doing in their personal lives and at work. That has been shown by the struggles of AI agents this year.”
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks at the Supermicro keynote presentation during the Computex conference in Taipei on June 1, 2023.
Walid Berrazeg | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Looking ahead
Overall, 2023 was a big year for consumer excitement surrounding generative AI and for adoption of a few popular products. But business success stories have been few and far between.
“It was an especially transformative year from a consumer perspective where AI became much more tangible than before,” Grace Isford, a partner at Lux Capital, said in an interview. “AI is nothing new, but the awareness — and in turn, the adoption — has skyrocketed. Many more hackers and builders are leveraging the technology and the really exciting advancements into products.”
CapitalG’s Chase said the consumer fascination with the space has allowed people to “see what was possible” in AI, allowing for a “cake tasting” of sorts and a teasing of the imagination.
Early in the year, people “extrapolated out early exploration of that technology into lasting and enduring use cases,” Chase said. She added that there hasn’t been a straight line from early adoption and widespread use of one or two products to mainstream popularity. Companies and developers are now going back to doing research and development to “build the right infrastructure and tooling” that can hopefully lead to mass adoption.
“I think that will happen over the next year,” she said. “I think some people thought it would happen this year.”
In 2023, it’s clear that the overwhelming beneficiary from all the hype was Nvidia. The challenge for the coming year and beyond is for businesses to show that their hefty spending on those advanced GPUs and the models they power can lead to the development of products that allow more companies to share in the wealth.
“I thought that the excitement at the end of last year would quickly translate into enterprise adoption, but the reality is that very few companies have launched generative AI applications into production and experiments aren’t quickly translating into reliable applications,” Burke said. “We’re still looking at an outlook where companies may not widely deploy products until later next year or even the following year.”
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Technology
Britain seeks to build homegrown rival to OpenAI in bid to become world leader in artificial intelligence
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13 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
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Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a media interview while attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, U.S. September 25, 2024.
Leon Neal | Via Reuters
LONDON — The U.K is looking to build a homegrown challenger to OpenAI and drastically increase national computing infrastructure, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government sets its sights on becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence.
Starmer is set to visit Bristol, England, on Monday to announce the pledge, which follows work done by British tech investor Matt Clifford to establish an “AI Opportunities Action Plan.” The plan aims to help the U.K. take advantage of the potential of AI.
The government is primarily seeking to expand data center capacity across the U.K. to boost developers of powerful AI models which rely on high-performance computing equipment hosted in remote locations to train and run their systems.
A target of increasing “sovereign,” or public sector, compute capacity in the U.K. by twentyfold by 2030 has been set. As part of that pledge, the government will begin opening access to the AI Research Resource, an initiative aimed at bolstering U.K. computing infrastructure.
Starmer’s administration last year canceled £1.3 billion of taxpayer-funded spending commitments towards two significant computing initiatives in order to prioritize other fiscal plans. The projects, an AI Research Resource and a next-generation “exascale” supercomputer, were pledges were made under Starmer’s predecessor, Rishi Sunak.
Sovereign AI has become a hot topic for policymakers, particularly in Europe. The term refers to the idea that technologies critical to economic growth and national security should be built and developed in the countries people are adopting them in.
To further bolster Britain’s computing infrastructure, the government also committed to setting up several AI “growth zones,” where rules on planning permission will be relaxed in certain places to allow for the creation of new data centers.
Meanwhile, an “AI Energy Council” formed of industry leaders from both energy and AI will be set up to explore the role of renewable and low-carbon sources of energy, like nuclear.
Building a challenger to OpenAI
The last major initiative the U.K. government proposed was to create homegrown AI “champions” of a similar scale to American tech giants responsible for the foundational AI models that power today’s generative AI tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Britain plans to use the AI growth zones and a newly established National Data Library to connect public institutions — such as universities — to enhance the country’s ability to create “sovereign” AI models which aren’t reliant on Silicon Valley.
It’s worth highlighting that the U.K. faces serious challenges in its bid to create an effective OpenAI alternative. For one, several entrepreneurs in the country have bemoaned funding challenges that make it difficult for startups in the country to raise the kind of cash available to AI success stories.
Many U.K. founders and venture capitalists have called for the country’s pension funds to allocate a greater portion of their portfolios toward riskier, growth-focused startups — a reform the government has committed to pushing previously.
“In the U.K., there’s $7 trillion in this pocket,” Magnus Grimeland, CEO and founder of venture capital firm Antler, told CNBC in an interview last year. “Imagine if you take just 5% of that and allocate it to innovation — you solve the problem.”
U.K. tech leaders have nevertheless generally praised the government’s AI action plan. Zahra Bahrololoumi, Salesforce’s U.K. boss, told CNBC the plan is a “forward-thinking strategy,” adding she’s encouraged by the government’s “bold vision for AI and emphasis on transparency, safety and collaboration.”
Chintan Patel, Cisco’s chief technology officer in the U.K., said he’s “encouraged” by the action plan. “Having a clearly defined roadmap is critical for the UK to achieve its ambition to become an AI superpower and a leading destination for AI investment,” he said.
Britain doesn’t yet have formal regulations for AI. Starmer’s government has previously said it plans to draw up legislation for AI — but details remain thin.
Last month, the government announced a consultation on measures to regulate the use of copyrighted content to train AI models.
More generally, the U.K. is pitching a differentiated regulatory regime from the EU following Brexit as a positive factor — meaning, it can introduce regulatory oversight for AI but in a way that’s less strict than the EU, which has taken a more hard-line approach to regulating the technology with its AI Act.
Technology
What to expect from new crypto legislation on the crime prevention side of it
Published
21 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
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Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S., July 27, 2024.
Kevin Wurm | Reuters
With the levers of power in Washington, D.C., about to change hands, a raft of pro-crypto legislation is expected from Congress and the Trump administration. To date, there’s been less focus on the cybersecurity side of the political effort, which could be an issue for crypto in relation to its popularity among a wary U.S. population.
Cryptocurrency, which includes not just bitcoin but ethereum, dogecoin, and others, has a faithful following among American adults. According to the Pew Research Center, 17% of American adults have traded in crypto, but that market share of American wallets has remained virtually unchanged since 2021. Meanwhile, according to a poll Pew conducted shortly before the election, 63% of adults say they have little to no confidence in crypto investing or trading, and don’t think cryptocurrencies are reliable and safe.
The incoming Trump administration has been touting its crypto bona fides, with a focus on the industry rather than the consumer.
“The No. 1 most important priority for the industry is to make sure they have a regulatory framework so that they can do business,” said Dusty Johnson (R-South Dakota), who helped author the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) that addresses the treatment of digital assets under U.S. law. The law passed in the House with bipartisan support but has not been taken up by the Senate.
FIT21 did contain specific crypto-cybersecurity provisions, which Johnson predicts will be built upon in the new administration.
Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture and a co-author of FIT21, says the cybersecurity provisions in the bill are still key in the upcoming administration.
“FIT21 requires important cybersecurity safeguards for financial intermediaries engaging with digital assets,” Thompson said in a statement to CNBC, adding that FIT21 includes explicit provisions to ensure that regulated firms take steps to evaluate and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities to protect both the services they offer and assets they hold on behalf of their customers.
“These cybersecurity requirements are critical for protecting digital asset markets and market participants,” Thompson said.
Some experts, however, doubt that there will be as much action on the security side of the legislation, given that crypto proponents are closely advising the Trump administration.
“Personnel is policy,” says Jeff Le, vice president of global government affairs and public policy at Security Scorecard and a former assistant cabinet secretary in the California governor’s office. The top ranks of the incoming economic team, made up of SEC Chair-designate Paul Atkins, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent, “have had a track record of supporting cryptocurrencies,” Le said.
Among other major posts in his second administration, President-elect Trump has appointed venture capital investor David Sacks to be his AI and crypto “czar.”
Crypto industry’s role in political realignment
The crypto industry donated significant sums to the 2024 election cycle, contributions that were not limited to the GOP, but focused more broadly on lawmakers with an industry-friendly view of crypto regulation. It’s likely that will continue to influence political calculations. The pro-crypto and bipartisan super PAC Fairshake and its affiliates have already raised over $100 million for the 2026 midterm elections, including commitments from Coinbase and Silicon Valley venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, an early backer of Coinbase. Top Andreessen Horowitz executives have been tapped for roles in the Trump administration.
“We have the most pro-crypto Congress ever [in] history, we have an extraordinarily pro-crypto president coming into office,” Faryar Shirzad, chief policy officer at Coinbase, recently told CNBC.
“It is rare to see cryptocurrency proponents advocate for increased regulation in the space, regardless of reason,” said Jason Baker, senior threat intelligence consultant at GuidePoint Security.
Baker says the anonymity and independence of cryptocurrency are often cited as primary benefits that legislation would curtail, and cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature makes it hard to regulate in a traditional sense.
“Given current signaling from the incoming administration and the interests of cryptocurrency proponents influential to the administration, we do not anticipate significant advances in cryptocurrency regulation within the next four years,” Baker said.
If there isn’t much action on regulation, there are some obvious ramifications for cybersecurity, he said, driven by the correlation between a pro-crypto Washington, D.C., and bullish bets by investors on digital assets.
“Cybercrime is often driven by benefits from increasing cryptocurrency value. In ransomware, for example, ransoms are commonly demanded in USD, but payments are made most frequently in bitcoin. When the value of bitcoin increases, cybercriminals will benefit,” Baker said.
The value of bitcoin has risen significantly over the past three months in what has been a risk-on market environment.
“Future de-emphasis on cryptocurrency regulation may positively signal that cybercrime operations in bitcoin remain viable and unlikely to suffer government disruption to operators in the space,” Baker said.
Cybercriminals have also been changing tactics to evade legislation and scrutiny, Baker added, switching to more under-the-radar cryptocurrencies like Monero.
Ransomware’s potential role in Congressional action
Baker predicts regulation centered on organizations issuing cryptocurrency payments — whether in the form of a ransom payment or for other purposes — is more likely achievable and palatable in the current regulatory environment.
“This could include, for example, increased requirements for reporting ransom payments when made, a policy which has been floated without gaining substantial traction in recent years,” Baker said. This approach can be argued as regulating end users and purposes rather than the underlying cryptocurrency itself.
In addition to ransomware payments to restore access to technology systems, there are other reasons why payment in cryptocurrency is common in digital extortion schemes, including to protect the identity and operational security of the criminal. Private organizations may also opt to use crypto to purchase leaked data or credentials which have been made available on illicit forums.
There could also be situations where private individuals attempt to report and receive payment for discovered vulnerabilities under a “bug bounty” program — whether voluntary or coerced (so-called “beg bounty”). They may request payment in cryptocurrency out of personal preference or general desire for privacy, and private organizations may or may not oblige.
“While there are doubtless other options for organizations to use cryptocurrency in some form, these are the primary forms we see on a regular or more frequent basis,” Baker said. “Though such actions would almost certainly have downstream impacts on cryptocurrency value by virtue of their impact on transaction volume,” Baker added.
Steve McNew, global leader of blockchain and digital assets at FTI Consulting, thinks some cyber-crypto legislation may happen, especially governing when a company victimized by a ransomware pays their attackers in cryptocurrency.
“There’s more than just public policy at issue,” said McNew. If a company has been compromised in a cyberattack and is required to make public disclosure of the ransoms it paid out, it can result in the company becoming a bigger future target for other criminal enterprises, McNew said. While it might make sense, on one hand, to provide disclosure as to where funds are going and what cryptocurrencies were used in a payment, doing so can put the company (and by extension its customers, employees and partners) in harm’s way.
“So, any policy decisions around cryptocurrency disclosures in this context will require balancing the need for transparency around the use of cryptocurrency in criminal matters alongside the risks such transparency might exacerbate,” McNew says.
Though FIT21 passed the House with broad bipartisan support, it did not address these issues specifically.
Le expects some legislation action that may attempt to address this topic. “The next Congress could see more traction for proposed legislation like Cryptocurrency Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2022, which allows companies to share information regarding cybersecurity threats with the federal government and with one another,” he said.
Le said Congress may also revisit the work of outgoing Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-North Carolina) and Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colorado) and the Ransomware and Financial Stability Act of 2024, which aimed at “strengthening the resilience of the U.S. financial system against ransomware attacks, establishing clear protocols for ransom payments, and ensuring that such payments, including those involving cryptocurrencies, are made within a controlled and legally compliant framework.”
But he added that it is unclear if the Trump administration will continue the Biden administration’s leadership role in the International Counter Ransomware Initiative, a 68-country coalition aimed at preventing the payments of ransomware.
The broader bitcoin governance battle
McNew says that many basic parameters surrounding crypto, even down to its definition, could hamstring legislation, even aspects of it intended to foster innovation and adoption of the industry.
“U.S. lawmakers have work to do in determining roles, responsibilities, and basic parameters for how the industry will be governed before any meaningful legislation can take hold,” McNew said. As an example, establishing a designated authority for digital assets is an imperative that has yet to be addressed.
Basic governance structure was a major sticking point during the Biden administration, and a primary reason Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler was a thorn in the side of the crypto industry.
“Lawmakers must decide whether responsibility will fall under the SEC, the CFTC, or another body. Issues around taxation and broker-dealer definitions for digital assets markets will also need to be defined and provided with a set of clear rules for legislation to be effective,” McNew said, adding that given how closely divided the House will be in the next session, it may be tough to craft an agreement.
Technology
Ahead of looming ban, TikTok creators ask fans to find them on Instagram or YouTube
Published
23 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
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Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Before Jack Nader started posting beauty videos on TikTok in 2023, he was working as a Starbucks barista in Chicago and living at home with his parents.
But after Nader, who’s now 21, started taking his videos seriously in April of that year, his TikTok account blew up. With more than half a million followers, he was able to generate enough income through brand sponsorships and his share of ad revenue that he quit his coffee shop gig and got his own apartment.
“This is my 9-to-5 job,” Nader, who said he makes between $1,000 and $12,000 per month as a creator, told CNBC. “This is what I do to make a living. This is how I pay for my groceries. This is how millions of small businesses make their money.”
Nader’s new reality, however, is far from stable. TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, is nearing a Jan. 19 deadline by which it has to be sold, or it faces a ban in the U.S. Like many other creators who have come to rely on TikTok, Nader has been urging his fans to find him on other social media apps before he potentially loses them altogether and the substantial income stream that they represent.
“Not everyone from my TikTok following is going to come over, and that’s really sad,” Nader said.
The TikTok risk has been present for years, but was amped up in April, after President Joe Biden signed a law that requires ByteDance to divest the short-form video app this month. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok in time, Apple and Google will be forced by law to ensure their platforms no longer support the app in the U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump, who favored a TikTok ban during his first administration, has since flip-flopped on the matter. Late last month, he urged the Supreme Court to intervene and forcibly delay implementation of Biden’s ban to give him time to find a “political resolution.” His inauguration is Jan. 20.
Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to turn after he met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in ByteDance who also owns a stake in the owner of Truth Social, Trump’s social media company.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments from both sides on Jan. 10. During the more than two-hour session, justices peppered TikTok’s head lawyer with questions about the app’s ties to China and appeared generally unconvinced by TikTok’s main argument, that the law violates the free speech rights of its millions of individual users in the U.S.
On Thursday, businessman Frank McCourt’s internet advocacy group Project Liberty announced it had submitted a proposal to buy TikTok from ByteDance. Calling it, “The People’s Bid for TikTok,” the group said it would restructure the app to exist on an American-owned platform and prioritize users’ digital safety, though it didn’t disclose terms of its bid.
Jack Nader, 21 of Chicago, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun moving his content from the Chinese-owned app onto Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts.
Courtesy of Jack Nader
A ruling could come at an point. Nader isn’t waiting for a resolution to figure out what’s next.
He’s currently downloading four or five of his TikTok videos each day to save them as he migrates his content to Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts. After downloading the videos, Nader re-edits them, optimizing the clips for each app.
“It took me over a year and a half to build the following that I have right now on TikTok to make it my full time job,” Nader said. “Now it’s kind of about rebuilding that entire brand on another platform, which is not ideal.”
Nader said he isn’t yet making any money from Reels or Shorts.
‘This isn’t just a silly app’
Danisha Carter, 27, is in a similar spot. A resident of Los Angeles, Carter has been a full-time creator since 2021, posting social commentary and lifestyle videos. Although she’d known about the TikTok ban for months, she said she had a wake-up call in the middle of the night in November.
“I need to start taking this seriously before I lose access to the platform that I built and the followers that I built,” Carter said, recalling her panicked realization. “I need to not waste any more time.”
Carter, who previously worked in luxury retail, has ended her TikTok videos by telling her followers that they can find her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon.
“This isn’t just a silly app that people have been using to post dance videos,” said Carter, who makes about $4,000 per month on average from her TikTok activity. “It’s been remarkable in terms of changing people’s lives, changing people’s businesses.”
Danisha Carter, 27 of Los Angeles, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun ending her videos by asking her fans to follow her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon before the Jan. 19 law banning the Chinese-owned app takes effect.
Courtesy of Danisha Carter
TikTok could still find a way to stay operational in the U.S., but if the app does get suspended, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram are poised to be the biggest winners in the fallout, experts predict.
TikTok has about 115 million monthly active users in the U.S., well behind YouTube at 258 million and Facebook at 253 million, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Instagram has 131 million. Short videos, the kind that mimic clips on TikTok, are gaining viewership across those apps, accounting for about 41% of user time on Instagram, Sensor Tower data shows.
While TikTok has a smaller userbase in the U.S. and lower share of total ad dollars than its top rivals, it’s the dominant platform for creators, particularly those focused on short-form content.
Influencer marketing platform HyperAuditor defines a creator as a user with over 1,000 subscribers. TikTok has nearly 8.5 million people in the U.S. who fit that category, compared with about 5.2 million on Instagram and 1.1 million on YouTube, according to HyperAuditor.
Meanwhile, TikTok accounts for 9% of digital ad spend on social media platforms in the U.S., according to Sensor Tower, compared to 31% for Facebook, 25% for Instagram and 21% for YouTube.
Should TikTok go away, “this equates to billions of dollars potentially up in the air for competitors to seize,” Sensor Tower told CNBC in an email. Emarketer estimates that Meta and YouTube could grab about half of the reallocated dollars should a ban go into effect.
That type of market shift has taken place elsewhere. India banned TikTok in June 2020, when the app had about 150 million monthly users in the country. A year later, Instagram’s monthly active users in India had increased by 20% while YouTube’s had gone up 11% year-over-year, according to Sensor Tower estimates.
“That’s when we saw the biggest jump in Reels utilization ever,” said Meghana Dhar, a former Instagram executive who was at the company at the time of the India ban. “Should TikTok get banned and creators have to scramble, between YouTube Shorts and Instagram, a lot of creators are already hedging their bets.”
At Meta, leaders within Instagram scheduled numerous impromptu meetings on Friday after listening to the oral arguments before the Supreme Court, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. Though many within the company had long expected TikTok would remain active in the U.S., leaders at Instagram began directing their teams to prepare for a potential influx of users should the ban go through, said the person, who asked not to be named due to confidentiality.
(L-R) Sarah Baus of Charleston, S.C., holds a sign that reads “Keep TikTok” as she and other content creators Sallye Miley of Jackson, Mississippi, and Callie Goodwin of Columbia, S.C., stand outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building as the court hears oral arguments on whether to overturn or delay a law that could lead to a ban of TikTok in the U.S., on January 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Need to diversify
Kristina Nolan, vice president of media services at marketing agency DMi Partners, said the TikTok situation is the latest example of why social media creators should always be diversifying their followings.
“We’re consistently reminding them to create audience depth on other platforms,” said Nolan, whose agency works with more than 50,000 creators.
In recent weeks weeks, DMi has seen more of its creators start to migrate followers elsewhere in a variety of ways, Nolan said. But they have to be careful. Nolan said that some creators worry that TikTok will “shadow ban” them, or reduce their exposure to users, if the technology recognizes that they’re promoting profiles elsewhere.
Some creators will suggest followers find them on “fbook,” for example, rather than writing out Facebook. Others will bleep out just enough words to get the message to their followers while hoping to avoid TikTok’s detection, Nolan said. Some creators are teaming up with brands to incentivize users by holding prize giveaways for users who follow them on other apps, she added.
“They’re obviously not saying, ‘Come over to Instagram,'” Nolan said. “They’re like, ‘Go follow me on’ and they’re mouthing it.”
After working on a horse farm, Nealie Boschma, 27, was able to move to Los Angeles and live full-time as a creator after starting to post videos to TikTok in 2022.
Courtesy of Nealie Boschma
Even with multiple other options for finding large audiences, creators are worried about trying to rebuild their business and whether enough followers will migrate with them.
“Whatever is going to happen is going to happen, and we’re just going to make the most of it,” said Nealie Boschma, 27 of Los Angeles, who has been living as a full-time creator since 2022. “That’s just how I have to look at it, so I don’t panic.”
Despite the potential upheaval, Boschma, said she views the potential ban as an opportunity to expand her career and get more creative.
Boschma started making TikTok videos after quitting her job working on a horse farm, choosing to live off of her savings while experimenting as a creator. Boschma’s bet on herself worked and she’s earned enough to live in Los Angeles, paying for her own place and a car.
Now she’s making sure her TikTok fans see the links to her other profiles so they can find her on other apps, including YouTube. If the ban goes through, Boschma said she plans to make a video specifically asking her fans to follow her elsewhere.
It’s going to be quite a lift, as she currently has 2 million TikTok followers compared to just 278,000 on YouTube. But Boschma said she is going to try her hand at making longer-form videos, something she’s always wanted to explore.
“Whether TikTok goes away or not, I do think something will work out” Boschma said. “I’ll find my footing in other places, like I did on TikTok.”
WATCH: Supreme Court likely to uphold TikTok ban, says Christoff & Co. CEO Niki Christoff
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