A driver pumps gas at a Sunoco gas station in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2023.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices are on pace to close out the year about 10% lower as bearish sentiment has taken over due to worries that the market is oversupplied from record production outside OPEC.
The West Texas Intermediate contract for February gained 10 cents, or 0.14%, to trade at $71.87 to barrel on Friday. The Brent contract for March rose 12 cents, or 0.16%, to trade at $77.27.
But U.S. crude and the global benchmark were headed for the first annual decline since 2020 despite ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East due to the devastating war in Gaza.
Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday on worries that militant attacks on shipping in the Red Sea would disrupt global trade and crude supplies. However, WTI is down 10.45% for the year, and Brent has lost 9.9%.
While fears of escalation in the Middle East have triggered brief spikes in crude prices, traders are primarily focused on the supply and demand balance.
Record U.S. production
The U.S. is producing crude at a record pace, pumping an estimated 13.3 million barrels per day last week. Output is also at a record in Brazil and Guyana. The historic production outside OPEC has collided with an economic slowdown in major economies, above all China.
OPEC and its allies, meanwhile, have promised to cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, but traders apparently have little confidence that the bloc’s policy will bring the market into balance.
Oil production outside OPEC, above all in the U.S., is expected to more than cover demand growth in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. Global oil demand growth is expect to fall by half to 1.1 mbd next year, while output outside OPEC is expected grow by 1.2 mbd.
Profound impact on oil
The shift in crude supply from the Middle East to the U.S. and other Atlantic countries is “profoundly impacting the global oil trade,” the IEA said in its December outlook.
The U.S. was responsible for two-thirds of the growth in supply outside OPEC this year. This is challenging efforts by producers in the Middle East to defend their market share and lift oil prices, according to the IEA.
OPEC seems to have little room to maneuver, with production cuts falling on deaf ears. Brazil has agreed to ally itself with the bloc, but it is not clear what that means for markets.
Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC in December that U.S. production this year has reached levels that surprised even her. She had a message of caution for the industry.
“It would be prudent of U.S. producers to be careful in terms of putting too much supply in the market,” Hollub said.
The Occidental CEO and Morgan Stanley do see U.S. crude prices bouncing back next year with a barrel of WTI averaging about $80. Wells Fargo has a lower forecast with WTI averaging $71.50 a barrel next year.
Mideast escalation threat
While the market is focused on the supply and demand picture, Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets told investors to watch developments in the Middle East closely.
“Anything that brings more direct confrontation with Iran and the United States is what you have to watch,” Croft said Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Three U.S. troops were injured Monday in a drone attack in Iraq carried out by Iran-backed militants. President Joe Biden then ordered retaliatory strikes on militia sites. And attacks by Iran-backed militants in Yemen on vessels in the Red Sea caused global shipping companies to reroute some traffic from the Suez Canal around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
The situation is also escalating on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Tuesday that his country is facing a “multiarena war” from seven areas: Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
“If you look at the situation in the Middle East, I think it is far too soon to write off the risks there,” RBC’s Croft said.
Daimler Truck North America has helped alcohol distributor Reyes Beverage Group deploy fully 29 zero-emission Freightliner eCascadia Class 8 electric semi trucks in its California delivery fleet.
Reyes Beverage Group (RGB) plans to deploy the first twenty Freightliner electric semi trucks at its Golden Brands – East Bay and Harbor Distributing – Huntington Beach warehouses, marking the first phase in the company’s transition to a fully zero emission truck fleet by 2039. An additional nine eCascadia Class 8 HDEVs are scheduled for delivery to RBG’s Gate City Beverage – San Bernardino warehouse before the end of 2024.
RBG’s decision to adopt the Freightliner eCascadia builds on its recent transition to renewable diesel and its ongoing idle-time reduction program. These electric vehicles (EVs) “go electric” will contribute significantly toward the company’s stated goal of reducing its carbon emissions 60 percent by 2030. These 2 trucks will save some 98,000 gallons of diesel fuel annually, and avoid putting nearly 700 metric tons of carbon dioxide and other harmful emissions into California’s air each year.
“We are excited to be among the first in our industry to adopt these electric vehicles,” explains Tom Reyes, President of RBG West. “This is a significant step toward our sustainability goals and ensuring compliance with state regulation as we transition our fleet to EV.”
Freightliner’s eCascadia electric semi trucks offer a number of battery and drive axle configurations with ranges between 155 and 230 miles, depending on the truck specification, to perfectly match customers’ needs without compromising on performance and load capacity. RBG’s Freightliner eCascadia tractors will rely on electric charging stations installed at each facility, allowing them to recharge to 80% capacity in as little as 90 minutes for RGB’s trucks, which feature a typical driving range of 220 miles as equipped.
The Windsor, Ontario utility says it’s driving towards a more sustainable future after adding a dozen new electric vehicles to its fleet – including a state-of-the-art, 55-foot Terex electric bucket truck.
Based on a Class 7 (33,000 lb. GVWR) International eMV Series BEV, the Terex EV takes the eMV’s 291 kWh battery and adds the Terex Optima 55-foot aerial device and HyPower SmartPTO system to create a fully electrified utility service vehicle that can do anything its diesel counterparts can do while offering better, safer working conditions for utility crews.
“We’ve got 12 EVs,” said Gary Rossi, president and CEO, Enwin Utilities. That number represents fully 10% of the utility’s entire vehicle fleet. “Our centerpiece is our electric 55-feet bucket truck. It’s very quiet,” continues Rossi. “So (the truck) allows us, our crews, to communicate better. It’s not as loud in the community when they’re doing repairs in someone’s backyard.”
That notion is echoed by Terex, itself. The company says its HyPower SmartPTO (power take off), which replaces a mechanical PTO, avoids a loud idling engine while reducing workers’ exposure to toxic exhaust fumes.
“It’s all about building Windsor’s future and literally plugging into the battery factory down the road that is being constructed and showing that Windsor is a leader on this front,” says Drew Dilkens, Mayor of Windsor. “I don’t own an internal combustion engine vehicle,” adds Mayor Wilkins. “I only own two electric cars. My wife and I, we made the change starting in 2019 and I can’t see myself ever going back.”
CTV News Windsor
Enwin says its commitment to clean energy extends beyond its vehicle fleet. The company recently unveiled a massive MW solar rooftop net metering facility at its Rhodes Drive headquarters with over 3,000 solar panels. The site, one of Canada’s largest solar installations, generates enough clean electricity to power 300 homes annually.
Built by Damen Shipyards and the first fully electric tugboat to be deployed in the Middle East, the new RSD-E Tug 2513 Bu Tinah put in its record-breaking performance took place at Khalifa Port during ADIPEC, the world’s largest energy conference.
The RSD-E Tug 2513 is based on the already efficient hull design of the standard, diesel-powered RSD Tug 2513, but its new, fully electric propulsion arrangement enables it to offer zero emissions operations in situations where oil or fuel leakage would be – let’s say especially bad.
But, while the “clean” aspect of all-electric operation is obvious, its Guinness World Record of performance shows that the Damen RSD-E Tug 2513 is up to whatever task its owners put to it.
“This Guinness World Record achievement demonstrates that the transition to alternative energy does not come at the cost of performance,” explains Maritime & Shipping Cluster, AD Ports Group, Captain Ammar Mubarak Al Shaiba. “We are very proud that the first electric tug in the Middle East is also making waves on a global level with this accolade and the fact that in parallel it is improving the sustainability of our operations alongside cost efficiencies in terms of overall fuel saving is extremely important. This vessel is now a key component of our Marine Services fleet and our electrification strategy.”
To earn its record, the the Damen RSD-E Tug 2513 Bu Tinah recorded an average high peak bollard pull of 78.2 tonnes (about 86 ‘Murican tons). The record-setting tugboat can undertake a minimum of two towage operation on a single charge, and can be recharged on a marine DC fast charger in just two hours.