‘Sudden stratospheric warming’ forecast to hit northern Europe in January – but experts unsure where it will strike
The UK could find itself in the deep freeze in January due to a change in wind patterns high up in the atmosphere – the same phenomenon that blew in the bitterly cold Beast from the East in 2018.
However, forecasters are warning it is too soon to tell where in Europe the cold weather will strike.
The “increased likelihood” of a freezing spell is due to a phenomenon called a ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ (SSW) that is forecast for early January, which can bring plunging cold temperatures a week or so later.
Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “When you get an SSW it increases the likelihood of a prolonged cold spell across Northern Europe, like the Beast from the East.”
But it is “hard to say” exactly where it will hit, she said. “It could impact the UK, it has the potential to, but I wouldn’t like to say it’s likely to.”
But the Met Office urged more caution. Spokesperson Stephen Dixon said: “It’s too early to tell if there will be a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event at the moment.
“Forecast models suggest a much weakened polar vortex over the coming weeks, but it’s not clear if this will result in an SSW or exactly how this will influence the UK’s weather patterns at this range.”
What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
An SSW happens when polar vortex winds in the stratosphere – the layer of atmosphere at 10-50km above Earth – slow, stop or reverse direction.
This leads to rapid warming in the stratosphere by up to 50C, but a few weeks later this also disrupts the jet stream, which affects our weather lower down.
As the jet stream starts to “wobble”, it allows cold air usually locked above the Arctic to seep further south in some areas of the Northern Hemisphere, said Prof Bentley.
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There are major disruptions on the A9 in Scotland due to heavy snow
How will it affect our weather?
“Now the crux of what we are looking for is where the waves [in the jet stream] will be,” added Prof Bentley.
“When we have an SSW it increases the likelihood of a cold spell across a large region like Europe or North America, but we wouldn’t get a feel for the actual position until four or five days out.
“Exactly where is hard to pinpoint. But there is an increased likelihood of very cold spells for certain regions.”
Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, a meteorologist from the University of Reading, said SSWs are also associated with “weaker westerlies for Europe and even easterlies, in some cases.”
“Given westerly winds tend to give more mild weather in winter, that can bring much colder weather across Western Europe.”
He added: “We know Europe will be cold, but it is difficult to be precise where, this far out.”
A car gets stuck in snow in Hayfield in Derbyshire during the “mini beast from the east” in 2018
When will it happen?
An SSW is on the cards for the next week, but it takes another week or so after that before the knock-on impact on the jet stream.
A cold spell is forecast for the second week of January, but it could kick in later, or last until February, said Prof Bentley.
The current Met Office forecast for mid-January projects an “increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic.
“Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.”
Will the UK see another ‘Beast from the East’?
An SSW doesn’t always bring cold conditions to the UK, because it depends on where the jet stream “wobbles”.
The Beast from the East in 2018 was caused by an SSW that allowed cold air to flow in to the UK from Siberia in the east.
But another SSW in 2019 “didn’t have a strong influence on Europe”, said Prof Charlton-Perez.
In any case, the UK is likely to see more settled weather than the recent wind and rain, said Prof Bentley.
Four people have been charged after £7m of damage was caused to two Voyager aircraft at RAF Brize Norton.
The investigation into the incident early on Friday 20 June was led by counter-terror police.
They have been charged with conspiracy to enter a prohibited place knowingly for a purpose prejudicial to the safety or interests of the UK – and conspiracy to commit criminal damage.
Two Voyager aircraft at RAF Brize Norton were damaged. PA file pic
The four charged have been identified as:
• Amy Gardiner-Gibson, 29, of no fixed abode
• Daniel Jeronymides-Norie, 35, from London
• Jony Cink, 24, of no fixed abode
• Lewie Chiaramello, 22, from London
They will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court later today.
A 41-year-old woman arrested last week on suspicion of assisting an offender has been released on bail until 19 September.
Meanwhile, a 23-year-old man detained on Saturday was released without charge.
Last month’s incident at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire was claimed by the activist group Palestine Action.
Yesterday, MPs voted to proscribe the group as a terrorist organisation.
The legislation passed with 385 MPs voting in favour, while 26 were against.
UK
No 10 backs Chancellor Rachel Reeves and says she ‘is going nowhere’ after tearful appearance in Commons
Rachel Reeves has not offered her resignation and is “going nowhere”, Downing Street has said, following her tearful appearance in the House of Commons.
A Number 10 spokesperson said the chancellor had the “full backing” of Sir Keir Starmer, despite Ms Reeves looking visibly upset during Prime Minister’s Questions.
Politics latest: ‘A moment of intense peril’ for PM
A spokesperson for the chancellor later clarified that Ms Reeves had been affected by a “personal matter” and would be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.
Politics latest: Reeves looks visibly upset in Commons
UK government bond prices fell by the most since October 2022, and the pound tumbled after Ms Reeves’s Commons appearance, while the yield on the 10-year government bond, or gilt, rose as much as 22 basis points at one point to around 4.68%.
Downing Street’s insistence came despite Sir Keir refusing to guarantee that Ms Reeves would stay as chancellor until the next election following the fallout from the government’s recent welfare U-turn.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch branded the chancellor the “human shield” for the prime minister’s “incompetence” just hours after he was forced to perform a humiliating U-turn over his controversial welfare bill.
Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions, Ms Badenoch said: “This man has forgotten that his welfare bill was there to plug a black hole created by the chancellor. Instead they’re creating new ones.”
Turning to the chancellor, the Tory leader added: “[She] is pointing at me – she looks absolutely miserable.
“Labour MPs are going on the record saying that the chancellor is toast, and the reality is that she is a human shield for his incompetence. In January, he said that she would be in post until the next election. Will she really?”
Not fully answering the question, the prime minister replied: “[Ms Badenoch] certainly won’t.
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Welfare vote ‘a blow to the prime minister’
“I have to say, I’m always cheered up when she asks me questions or responds to a statement because she always makes a complete mess of it and shows just how unserious and irrelevant they are.”
Mrs Badenoch interjected: “How awful for the chancellor that he couldn’t confirm that she would stay in place.”
The prime minister’s watered-down Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill, aimed at saving £5bn, was backed by a majority of 75 in a tense vote on Tuesday evening.
A total of 49 Labour MPs voted against the bill – the largest rebellion in a prime minister’s first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.
After multiple concessions made due to threats of a Labour rebellion, many MPs questioned what they were voting for as the bill had been severely stripped down.
They ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.
Ms Badenoch said the climbdown was proof that Sir Keir was “too weak to get anything done”.
Read more:
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Ms Reeves has also borne a lot of the criticism over the handling of the vote, with some MPs believing that her strict approach to fiscal rules has meant she has approached the ballooning welfare bill from the standpoint of trying to make savings, rather than getting people into work.
Experts have now warned that the welfare U-turn, on top of reversing the cut to winter fuel, means that tax rises in the autumn are more likely – with Ms Reeves now needing to find £5bn to make up for the policy U-turns.
Asked by Ms Badenoch whether he could rule out further tax rises – something Labour promised it would not do on working people in its manifesto – Sir Keir said: “She knows that no prime minister or chancellor ever stands at the despatch box and writes budgets in the future.
“But she talks about growth, for 14 years we had stagnation, and that is what caused the problem.”
Prosecutors are considering whether to bring further criminal charges against Lucy Letby over the deaths of babies at two hospitals where she worked
The Crown Prosecution Service said it had received “a full file of evidence from Cheshire Constabulary asking us to consider further allegations in relation to deaths and non-fatal collapses of babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital and Liverpool Women’s Hospital”.
“We will now carefully consider the evidence to determine whether any further criminal charges should be brought,” it added.
“As always, we will make that decision independently, based on the evidence and in line with our legal test.”
Letby, 35, was found guilty of murdering seven children and attempting to murder seven more between June 2015 and June 2016 while working in the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital and is currently serving 15 whole-life orders.
Letby worked at the Countess of Chester Hospital and Liverpool Women’s Hospital
She is understood to have carried out two work placements at Liverpool Women’s Hospital, where she trained as a student, between October and December 2012, and January and February 2015.
Police said in December that Letby was interviewed in prison as part of an investigation into more baby deaths and non-fatal collapses.
A Cheshire Constabulary spokesperson said: “We can confirm that Cheshire Constabulary has submitted a full file of evidence to the CPS for charging advice regarding the ongoing investigation into deaths and non-fatal collapses of babies at the neo-natal units of both the Countess of Chester Hospital and the Liverpool Women’s Hospital as part of Operation Hummingbird.”
Detectives previously said the investigation was looking into the full period of time that Letby worked as a nurse, covering the period from 2012 to 2016 and including a review of 4,000 admissions of babies.
Letby’s lawyer Mark McDonald said: “The evidence of the innocence of Lucy Letby is overwhelming,” adding: “We will cross every bridge when we get to it but if Lucy is charged I know we have a whole army of internationally renowned medical experts who will totally undermine the prosecution’s unfounded allegations.”
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Three managers at the hospital where Lucy Letby worked have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter.
On Tuesday, it was confirmed that three managers at the Countess of Chester hospital had been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter in a separate investigation.
Read more from Sky News:
‘Catastrophic failure’ that led to Heathrow power outage revealed
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Police said the suspects, who occupied senior positions at the hospital between 2015 and 2016, have all been bailed pending further inquiries.
There is also an investigation into corporate manslaughter at the hospital, which began in October 2023.
A public inquiry has also been examining the hospital’s response to concerns raised about Letby before her arrest.
In May, it was announced the inquiry’s final report into how the former nurse was able to commit her crimes will now be published early next year.
Earlier this year, Letby’s lawyers called for the suspension of the inquiry, claiming there was “overwhelming and compelling evidence” that her convictions were unsafe.
In February, an international panel of neonatologists and paediatric specialists told reporters that poor medical care and natural causes were the reasons for the collapses and deaths.
Their evidence has been passed to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), which investigates potential miscarriages of justice, and Letby’s legal team hopes her case will be referred back to the Court of Appeal.
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