‘Sudden stratospheric warming’ forecast to hit northern Europe in January – but experts unsure where it will strike
The UK could find itself in the deep freeze in January due to a change in wind patterns high up in the atmosphere – the same phenomenon that blew in the bitterly cold Beast from the East in 2018.
However, forecasters are warning it is too soon to tell where in Europe the cold weather will strike.
The “increased likelihood” of a freezing spell is due to a phenomenon called a ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ (SSW) that is forecast for early January, which can bring plunging cold temperatures a week or so later.
Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “When you get an SSW it increases the likelihood of a prolonged cold spell across Northern Europe, like the Beast from the East.”
But it is “hard to say” exactly where it will hit, she said. “It could impact the UK, it has the potential to, but I wouldn’t like to say it’s likely to.”
But the Met Office urged more caution. Spokesperson Stephen Dixon said: “It’s too early to tell if there will be a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event at the moment.
“Forecast models suggest a much weakened polar vortex over the coming weeks, but it’s not clear if this will result in an SSW or exactly how this will influence the UK’s weather patterns at this range.”
What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
An SSW happens when polar vortex winds in the stratosphere – the layer of atmosphere at 10-50km above Earth – slow, stop or reverse direction.
This leads to rapid warming in the stratosphere by up to 50C, but a few weeks later this also disrupts the jet stream, which affects our weather lower down.
As the jet stream starts to “wobble”, it allows cold air usually locked above the Arctic to seep further south in some areas of the Northern Hemisphere, said Prof Bentley.
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There are major disruptions on the A9 in Scotland due to heavy snow
How will it affect our weather?
“Now the crux of what we are looking for is where the waves [in the jet stream] will be,” added Prof Bentley.
“When we have an SSW it increases the likelihood of a cold spell across a large region like Europe or North America, but we wouldn’t get a feel for the actual position until four or five days out.
“Exactly where is hard to pinpoint. But there is an increased likelihood of very cold spells for certain regions.”
Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, a meteorologist from the University of Reading, said SSWs are also associated with “weaker westerlies for Europe and even easterlies, in some cases.”
“Given westerly winds tend to give more mild weather in winter, that can bring much colder weather across Western Europe.”
He added: “We know Europe will be cold, but it is difficult to be precise where, this far out.”
A car gets stuck in snow in Hayfield in Derbyshire during the “mini beast from the east” in 2018
When will it happen?
An SSW is on the cards for the next week, but it takes another week or so after that before the knock-on impact on the jet stream.
A cold spell is forecast for the second week of January, but it could kick in later, or last until February, said Prof Bentley.
The current Met Office forecast for mid-January projects an “increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic.
“Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.”
Will the UK see another ‘Beast from the East’?
An SSW doesn’t always bring cold conditions to the UK, because it depends on where the jet stream “wobbles”.
The Beast from the East in 2018 was caused by an SSW that allowed cold air to flow in to the UK from Siberia in the east.
But another SSW in 2019 “didn’t have a strong influence on Europe”, said Prof Charlton-Perez.
In any case, the UK is likely to see more settled weather than the recent wind and rain, said Prof Bentley.
Just 36 aid trucks entered Gaza on Saturday – despite the humanitarian situation in the enclave worsening, Palestinian officials have warned.
According to the Gazan government’s media office, most of the humanitarian supplies were looted and stolen – “as a result of the state of security chaos that the Israeli occupation systematically and deliberately perpetuates”.
Officials say at least 600 truckloads of aid are required on a daily basis, adding: “The needs of the population are worsening.”
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Gaza nurse: ‘We’re rationing care’
A statement released late last night called for “the immediate opening of crossings, and the entry of aid and infant formula in sufficient quantities” – and “condemned in the strongest terms the continuation of the crime of starvation”.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, refuted this – and accused Hamas of “stirring up a slanderous propaganda campaign against Israel”.
He said: “The cruelty of Hamas has no boundaries. While the State of Israel is allowing the entry of humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza, the terrorists of Hamas are deliberately starving our hostages and document them in a cynical and evil manner.
“The terrorists of Hamas are deliberately starving the residents of the Strip as well, preventing them from receiving the aid.”
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Aid drops continue over Gaza
It comes as the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza said its headquarters in Khan Younis were hit by an Israeli strike, killing one staff member and injuring three others.
Footage posted on social media shows a fire broke out in the building.
Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel for a 60-day ceasefire, and a deal for the release of half the hostages still held in Gaza, ended in deadlock last week.
US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy told the families of the hostages yesterday that he was working with the Israeli government on a plan that would end the war.
Steve Witkoff arrives to meet families of hostages in Tel Aviv. Pic: AP
Steve Witkoff claimed that Hamas was willing to disarm to stop the conflict, despite the group’s repeated statements that it would not do so.
In response, Hamas said it would not disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established with Jerusalem as its capital.
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After Mr Witkoff’s meeting with the families of the hostages, Hamas released two videos of an emaciated Israeli hostage, Evyatar David, who was abducted from the Nova music festival on 7 October 2023 and has been held in captivity in Gaza since.
The 24-year-old looked skeletal, with his shoulder blades protruding from his back. He was heard saying that he had not eaten for three days. The distressing videos show him digging his own grave, he said in the footage.
Two videos of an emaciated Israeli hostage, Evyatar David, have been released by Hamas, after US special envoy Steve Witkoff this week met with the families of the hostages.
The now 24-year-old looks skeletal, with his shoulder blades protruding from his back, and says he has not eaten for three days.
The distressing videos show him apparently digging his own grave.
He worked in a restaurant, according to a video posted by Labour Friends of Israel, before he was abducted from the Nova music festival on 7 October 2023.
Since then, he has been held in captivity in Gaza, and the videos suggest he is being kept in dark tunnels and surviving on scarce portions of lentils and beans.
Gaza itself is suffering “man-made mass starvation” because of Israel’s blockade on aid to the enclave, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) has previously said.
Evyatar David before he was captured by Hamas. Pic: Hostages and Missing Families Forum
In the video, Evyatar David writes on a hand-made calendar on the wall of a tunnel
In the second video, released on Saturday, Mr David – according to the English subtitles – says: “I haven’t eaten for three days.”
The captions continue as he speaks while in an underground tunnel: “There’s no [sic] enough food. I barely get drinking water.”
The video shows him talking through what he ate in July, which has been recorded on a handmade calendar hung up on the side of an underground Gaza tunnel.
Speaking while under captivity and under duress, he adds: “They give me what they can get.”
At the end of the video, he is digging a hole. The subtitle reads: “This is the grave where I think I’m going to be buried in. Time is running out.”
He then appears to break down, crouching on the floor and leaning his head on his arm while still clinging to the shovel.
A poster released by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum with photos of Evyatar David released in 2023, February this year and July
In a statement, his family said: “We are forced to witness our beloved son and brother, Evyatar David, deliberately and cynically starved in Hamas’s tunnels in Gaza – a living skeleton, buried alive.
“Our son has only a few days left to live in his current condition.”
They added: “Israel and the international community must oppose Hamas’s cruelty and ensure that our Evyatar immediately receives proper nutrition.
“The intentional starvation, torture, and abuse of Evyatar for propaganda purposes violate even the lowest standards of humanitarian law and basic human decency.”
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Gaza nurse: ‘We’re rationing care’
‘Famine’ looms in Gaza
On Friday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff visited a site where the US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has been distributing food in Gaza.
Read more: ‘Little confidence’ US Gaza delegation would see full picture
The controversial GHF scheme has been widely condemned, including by the UK government, after fatal shootings ever since it was set up earlier this year.
According to the United Nations’ human rights office, at least 859 people have been killed “in the vicinity” of GHF aid sites since late May.
The Israel Defence Forces has repeatedly said it “categorically rejects the claims of intentional harm to civilians” and has blamed Hamas militants for fomenting chaos and endangering civilians.
Meanwhile, the UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IFSPC) this week said a “worst-case scenario of famine” was sinking in across the besieged enclave.
It has also said more than 20,000 children have been treated for acute malnutrition since April.
Families of the 50 hostages still in Gaza are concerned they are also starving, and blame Hamas.
On Saturday, Gaza’s health ministry said a further seven Palestinians had died of malnutrition-related causes in the past 24 hours, including a child.
Rescue crews searching for five trapped Chilean miners have discovered a body.
A section of the copper mine had collapsed on Thursday following a strong, 4.2-magnitude tremor.
The remaining four miners are still missing – and rescuers are vowing to continue their search with “strength and hope”.
A man reacts during a vigil at an entrance to El Teniente mine complex. Pic: Reuters/Pablo Sanhueza
Andres Music, general manager of El Teniente mine, said: “This discovery fills us with sadness, but it also tells us that we are in the right place, that the strategy we followed led us to them.”
Crews are trying to drill through 90m (295ft) of rock to reach the trapped miners, but Mr Music said they had not yet made contact with the workers.
Just over a fifth of the blocked underground tunnels have been cleared, with teams hoping to get through about 15m to 20m (49ft to 66ft) every 24 hours using heavy machinery.
He said rescue efforts would continue with increased caution, which could slow progress.
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Two people are now known to have died as a result of the collapse.
Another miner, Paulo Marin Tapia, was found dead on Thursday shortly after the incident.
Codelco, which owns the mine, said the identity of the second man is yet to be confirmed.
Nine other miners were injured.
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