Business

The key economic graphs that define 2023

Published

11 months ago

December 29, 2023

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How to sum up a year like 2023?

Perhaps the best thing to say is that it was considerably less exciting – as far as the economics went – than 2022.

And that’s probably no bad thing, because in 2022 much of what passed for excitement was extremely painful: the onset of a cost of living crisis which caused the biggest fall in British standards of living in modern record, a financial meltdown in the wake of Liz Truss‘s mini-budget.

The plan, when Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt came into office, was always to make the economy boring again, and to some extent they succeeded.

Most obviously, while the government’s cost of borrowing did later rise to above the Truss era levels, it was largely down to higher inflation expectations and not to fears over the credibility of UK government policy.

This time last year, most people assumed – present company included – that 2023 would be a year of recession for the UK.

And for much of the year that’s precisely what it looked like.

France and Germany both tipped into technical recession (the definition of which is that you suffer two successive quarters of economic contraction). The UK was expected to do likewise.

Economic growth

But somehow, it never happened.

At least, not quite.

Instead, the economy more or less flatlined for most of the year – though figures published by the Office for National Statistics just before Christmas showed the economy contracted slightly, by 0.1% in the third quarter.

Either way, this can hardly be held up as a positive result. Normally you’d expect the UK’s gross domestic product to grow by around 2-2.5% each year.

However, a negligible amount of economic growth is more than most expected this year – even if (see below) it was helped by a colossal increase in migration.

Technically, this meant the prime minister met one of his much-publicised pledges he made to the country at the start of the year – to grow the economy.

As you can see from the chart, this isn’t much to boast about, especially set against the pre-pandemic path, but it is certainly better than what many other European countries experienced.

The Cost of Living

Another of the prime minister’s pledges was to halve inflation this year.

At the time he made it, this pledge looked pretty unspectacular, given a) controlling inflation is the Bank of England‘s task, not the government’s and, anyway, b) pretty much every economist was expecting inflation to halve this year anyway.

But over the course of the year inflation defied many of those economists’ forecasts, with the upshot that by the summer that pledge looked quite risky.

But then, no sooner had inflation surprised on the upside, it surprised on the downside, falling faster than most economists expected.

By the end of the year the consumer price index rate of inflation was down to 3.9% which is nearly in “normal” territory, albeit considerably higher than the Bank of England’s 2% target.

But while that meant the rate was indeed halved (actually more than halved) over the year, this hardly ends the cost of living crisis.

After all, inflation is simply the rate at which prices are changing each year. And right now prices are still 15% higher than they were a couple of years ago.

It’s that jump in levels which is causing severe economic hardship right now.

Life is not getting any less expensive. It’s just getting expensive a little slower than it was a year or so ago.

Interest rates

It’s tempting to lump interest rates along with the other things that didn’t turn out as bad as expected, but here the story is more complicated.

True: rates never rose to the 6% highs that were once expected around the time of the Truss mini-budget and also during the inflation spike during the Hunt chancellorship.

But they nonetheless rose far higher than most had expected at the start of the year, up to a peak of 5.25%. As the year ended, the Bank was still insisting that they would stay up there for some time (and some members were still voting for higher rates) but most investors believe they will be cut numerous times in the new year – down as far as 4% by the end of the year.

That has a bearing on the mortgage rates most of us pay, since fixed-rate mortgages are mostly priced off what’s going on in financial markets rather than the Bank’s official rate. The upshot was that the going rate for two and five-year fixed-rate mortgages were falling sharply by the end of the year.

Tax burden

Another hot topic this year was taxation.

The government insisted repeatedly that it wants to bring it down, and in the Autumn Statement, the chancellor announced a series of cuts to both workers’ taxes and taxes on business investment.

The upshot was that the tax burden wasn’t due to rise as high as it might otherwise have done.

However, the overall burden is still due to hit the highest level since the 1940s, in large part because of the fact that the levels at which people are pulled into higher tax bands has been frozen.

Higher wage inflation (due to the cost of living crisis) means more people are seeing their earnings taxed at those higher levels.

This so-called “fiscal drag” means the nation is shifting from being a medium-tax country to a high-tax country.

But so too are most developed nations, as the cost of running expensive healthcare systems rises, along with the average age of their populations.

Migration

While the government spent much of its energy talking about illegal immigration and the boats coming across the channel, the real quantitative story here was actually legal migration, which rose, according to the data released this year, to an unprecedented level of 745,000 in 2022.

That rise was extraordinary by any standards.

When looked at as a share of the population, it amounts to comfortably the biggest rise in net migration since records began. And, strikingly, experts said that this was primarily a consequence of the new rules brought in after Brexit, which made it easier for workers and students from outside Europe to come to Britain.

Migration might have been a big issue during the EU referendum, but the numbers today are considerably higher than they were back then – but Britain has swapped EU migrants with those from outside the continent – primarily from India and China.

Business

Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use – with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

Published

1 hour ago

November 14, 2024

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Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use - with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

Consumer rights group Which? is suing Apple for £3bn over the way it deploys the iCloud.

If the lawsuit succeeds, around 40 million Apple customers in the UK could be entitled to a payout.

The lawsuit claims Apple, which controls iOS operating systems, has breached UK competition law by giving its iCloud storage preferential treatment, effectively “trapping” customers with Apple devices into using it.

It also claims the company overcharged those customers by stifling competition.

The rights group alleges Apple encouraged users to sign up to iCloud for storage of photos, videos and other data while simultaneously making it difficult to use alternative providers.

Which? says Apple doesn’t allow customers to store or back-up all of their phone’s data with a third-party provider, arguing this violates competition law.

The consumer rights group says once iOS users have signed up to iCloud, they then have to pay for the service once their photos, notes, messages and other data go over the free 5GB limit.

“By bringing this claim, Which? is showing big corporations like Apple that they cannot rip off UK consumers without facing repercussions,” said Which?’s chief executive Anabel Hoult.

“Taking this legal action means we can help consumers to get the redress that they are owed, deter similar behaviour in the future and create a better, more competitive market.”

Apple ‘rejects’ claims and will defend itself

Apple “rejects” the idea its customers are tied to using iCloud and told Sky News it would “vigorously” defend itself.

“Apple believes in providing our customers with choices,” a spokesperson said.

“Our users are not required to use iCloud, and many rely on a wide range of third-party alternatives for data storage. In addition, we work hard to make data transfer as easy as possible – whether it’s to iCloud or another service.

“We reject any suggestion that our iCloud practices are anti-competitive and will vigorously defend against any legal claim otherwise.”

It also said nearly half of its customers don’t use iCloud and its pricing is inline with other cloud storage providers.

How much could UK Apple customers receive if lawsuit succeeds?

The lawsuit will represent all UK Apple customers that have used iCloud services since 1 October 2015 – any that don’t want to be included will need to opt out.

However, if consumers live abroad but are otherwise eligible – for example because they lived in UK and used the iCloud but then moved away – they can also opt in.

The consumer rights group estimates that individual consumers could be owed an average of £70, depending on how long they have been paying for the services during that period.

Apple is facing a similar lawsuit in the US, where the US Department of Justice is accusing the company of locking down its iPhone ecosystem to build a monopoly.

Apple said the lawsuit is “wrong on the facts and the law” and that it will vigorously defend against it.

Big tech’s battles

This is the latest in a line of challenges big tech companies like Apple, Google and Samsung have faced around anti-competitive practices.

Most notably, a landmark case in the US earlier this year saw a judge rule that Google holds an illegal monopoly over the internet search market.

The company is now facing a second antitrust lawsuit, and may be forced to break up parts of its business.

And in December last year, a judge declared Google’s Android app store a monopoly in a case brought by a private gaming company.

“Now that five companies control the whole of the internet economy, there’s a real need for people to fight back and to really put pressure on the government,” William Fitzgerald, from tech campaigning organisation The Worker Agency, told Sky News.

“That’s why we have governments; to hold corporations accountable, to actually enforce laws.”

Business

Homebase deal leaves 2,000 jobs at risk

Published

13 hours ago

November 13, 2024

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The jobs of more than half of the workforce at the DIY chain Homebase are at risk after the retailer’s owners called in administrators following a failed attempt at a sale.

Sky News reported earlier on Wednesday that around 1,500 people were set to keep their roles as 75 of the 130 stores were set to be snapped up by the saviour of Wilko in a so-called pre-pack deal.

The Range, also a general merchandise specialist, was confirmed as the buyer later in the day.

Teneo, which is handling the process, is understood to have been working to find a buyer for as many of the chain’s sites as possible.

Teneo said in a statement on Wednesday afternoon that up to 70 stores were confirmed to be included in the deal – saving up to 1,600 jobs out of 3,600.

It leaves 2,000 jobs at risk.

Forty-nine other stores will continue to trade while alternative offers are explored.

Sources told Sky’s City editor Mark Kleinman that there had been many expressions of interest in the remaining stores, despite the gloom being felt across the retail sector over the higher tax take demanded in the budget.

The sector has warned of higher inflation and job losses arising from the measures, which include increased employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels.

The pre-pack deal – which typically allows a buyer to cherry-pick the assets it wants – brings to an end a six-year ownership of Homebase by Hilco, the retail restructuring specialist.

Teneo had initially been attempting to find a buyer for the whole Homebase business.

The partial sale comprises all those stores in the Republic of Ireland and the Homebase brand and its e-commerce business.

The Range is part of CDS Superstores, which is controlled by the businessman Chris Dawson – nicknamed “the Del Boy billionaire” because of the distinctive number plate on his Rolls-Royce Wraith.

Last year, it paid £7m to buy the brand and intellectual property assets of Wilko, which had collapsed into administration.

Since then, Mr Dawson has opened a string of new Wilko outlets.

Business

P&O spent £47m sacking and replacing 786 mainly British seafarers in 2022

Published

19 hours ago

November 13, 2024

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P&O spent £47m sacking and replacing 786 mainly British seafarers in 2022

P&O Ferries spent more than £47m summarily sacking hundreds of seafarers in 2022, helping it cut losses by more than £125m and putting it on a path to profitability, according to accounts due to be published in the coming days.

The dismissal of 786 mainly British seafarers, and their replacement with largely non-European agency staff earning as little as £4.87 an hour, was hugely controversial, drawing criticism from across the political spectrum and threats of a consumer boycott.

The controversy was rekindled last month when Sky News revealed that DP World, P&O‘s Dubai-based parent, considered withdrawing a £1bn investment at its London Gateway port following criticism of P&O by the Transport Secretary Louise Haigh.

P&O has always maintained the restructuring was necessary to allow it to compete with its rivals on cross-Channel routes, and prevent a total collapse of the company with the loss of more than 2,000 jobs.

In financial statements for P&O Holdings, filed 11 months late and seen by Sky News, the company says the restructuring cost £47.4m including legal fees and consultants, allowing it to cut the overall wage and salary bill by £21.3m.

In a note accompanying the accounts submitted to Companies House, P&O’s directors describe the restructuring as part of a “transformational journey” that will help it return to recording a profit before tax this year.

“The business has been on a transformational journey as it has recovered from the challenges of the global pandemic, Brexit and the impact of disruption caused by the change in the crewing model,” the directors say.

“The group believes that the transformational actions that commenced in 2022 and continue through into 2024 will equip the business to grow profitably when demand rises in the coming years.”

Brexit and COVID financial distress

The accounts reveal the financial distress in which P&O found itself in 2022.

Having recorded losses of £375m the previous year as it struggled to recover from the pandemic-era decline in passenger numbers and post-Brexit complications, it was in breach of its covenants to external lenders underwriting the construction of new hybrid cross-Channel ferries.

Despite the restructuring costs, revenue increased by £83.3m to £918m in the financial year, but the company still recorded a loss of £249m and was reliant on loans totalling £365m from parent company DP World to remain a going concern.

An additional £70m was made available this year, with 4.5% interest rolled up and not requiring any repayment until 2028 at the earliest.

The financial statements also reveal that P&O was forced to sell one of the new cross-Channel ferries to a French subsidiary to pay off an external financing loan of £76.9m, and then lease the vessel back from its ultimate owner.

In a statement, P&O Ferries said: “Our 2022 financial accounts show the challenges faced by the business at that time, and why the business needed to transform into a competitive operator with a sustainable long-term future.

“P&O Ferries has taken steps to adjust to new market conditions, matching our capacity to demand, and adopting a more flexible operating model that enables us to better serve our customers.”