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How to sum up a year like 2023?

Perhaps the best thing to say is that it was considerably less exciting – as far as the economics went – than 2022.

And that’s probably no bad thing, because in 2022 much of what passed for excitement was extremely painful: the onset of a cost of living crisis which caused the biggest fall in British standards of living in modern record, a financial meltdown in the wake of Liz Truss‘s mini-budget.

The plan, when Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt came into office, was always to make the economy boring again, and to some extent they succeeded.

Most obviously, while the government’s cost of borrowing did later rise to above the Truss era levels, it was largely down to higher inflation expectations and not to fears over the credibility of UK government policy.

This time last year, most people assumed – present company included – that 2023 would be a year of recession for the UK.

And for much of the year that’s precisely what it looked like.

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France and Germany both tipped into technical recession (the definition of which is that you suffer two successive quarters of economic contraction). The UK was expected to do likewise.

Economic growth

UK CPI inflation slide 2

But somehow, it never happened.

At least, not quite.

Instead, the economy more or less flatlined for most of the year – though figures published by the Office for National Statistics just before Christmas showed the economy contracted slightly, by 0.1% in the third quarter.

Either way, this can hardly be held up as a positive result. Normally you’d expect the UK’s gross domestic product to grow by around 2-2.5% each year.

However, a negligible amount of economic growth is more than most expected this year – even if (see below) it was helped by a colossal increase in migration.

Technically, this meant the prime minister met one of his much-publicised pledges he made to the country at the start of the year – to grow the economy.

As you can see from the chart, this isn’t much to boast about, especially set against the pre-pandemic path, but it is certainly better than what many other European countries experienced.

The Cost of Living

Another of the prime minister’s pledges was to halve inflation this year.

At the time he made it, this pledge looked pretty unspectacular, given a) controlling inflation is the Bank of England‘s task, not the government’s and, anyway, b) pretty much every economist was expecting inflation to halve this year anyway.

But over the course of the year inflation defied many of those economists’ forecasts, with the upshot that by the summer that pledge looked quite risky.

But then, no sooner had inflation surprised on the upside, it surprised on the downside, falling faster than most economists expected.

UK CPI inflation slide 1

By the end of the year the consumer price index rate of inflation was down to 3.9% which is nearly in “normal” territory, albeit considerably higher than the Bank of England’s 2% target.

But while that meant the rate was indeed halved (actually more than halved) over the year, this hardly ends the cost of living crisis.

After all, inflation is simply the rate at which prices are changing each year. And right now prices are still 15% higher than they were a couple of years ago.

It’s that jump in levels which is causing severe economic hardship right now.

Life is not getting any less expensive. It’s just getting expensive a little slower than it was a year or so ago.

Interest rates

It’s tempting to lump interest rates along with the other things that didn’t turn out as bad as expected, but here the story is more complicated.

True: rates never rose to the 6% highs that were once expected around the time of the Truss mini-budget and also during the inflation spike during the Hunt chancellorship.

Slide 3 bank and mortgage rates

But they nonetheless rose far higher than most had expected at the start of the year, up to a peak of 5.25%. As the year ended, the Bank was still insisting that they would stay up there for some time (and some members were still voting for higher rates) but most investors believe they will be cut numerous times in the new year – down as far as 4% by the end of the year.

That has a bearing on the mortgage rates most of us pay, since fixed-rate mortgages are mostly priced off what’s going on in financial markets rather than the Bank’s official rate. The upshot was that the going rate for two and five-year fixed-rate mortgages were falling sharply by the end of the year.

Tax burden

Another hot topic this year was taxation.

The government insisted repeatedly that it wants to bring it down, and in the Autumn Statement, the chancellor announced a series of cuts to both workers’ taxes and taxes on business investment.

The upshot was that the tax burden wasn’t due to rise as high as it might otherwise have done.

Overall UK tax burden slide 4

However, the overall burden is still due to hit the highest level since the 1940s, in large part because of the fact that the levels at which people are pulled into higher tax bands has been frozen.

Higher wage inflation (due to the cost of living crisis) means more people are seeing their earnings taxed at those higher levels.

This so-called “fiscal drag” means the nation is shifting from being a medium-tax country to a high-tax country.

But so too are most developed nations, as the cost of running expensive healthcare systems rises, along with the average age of their populations.

Migration

While the government spent much of its energy talking about illegal immigration and the boats coming across the channel, the real quantitative story here was actually legal migration, which rose, according to the data released this year, to an unprecedented level of 745,000 in 2022.

 Slide 5

That rise was extraordinary by any standards.

When looked at as a share of the population, it amounts to comfortably the biggest rise in net migration since records began. And, strikingly, experts said that this was primarily a consequence of the new rules brought in after Brexit, which made it easier for workers and students from outside Europe to come to Britain.

Migration might have been a big issue during the EU referendum, but the numbers today are considerably higher than they were back then – but Britain has swapped EU migrants with those from outside the continent – primarily from India and China.

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.

The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.

It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.

Money blog: Major boost for mortgage holders

The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.

Why is this happening?

Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.

This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.

The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.

Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.

What is the FTSE 100?

The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.

Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.

Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.

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FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.

If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.

The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.

A good close for markets

It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.

Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.

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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week

Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.

Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.

Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.

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Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

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Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.

The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.

Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.

Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.

He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.

While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.

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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained

“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”

In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.

The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.

The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs could mean for rest of the world

The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.

It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.

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What has Trump done since winning?

Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.

Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.

“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”

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Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

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Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.

Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.

Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.

It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.

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That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.

Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.

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How pints helped bring down inflation

If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.

Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.

The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.

His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.

News of more cuts has boosted markets.

The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.

State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.

The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.

Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.

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