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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy started 2023 full of optimism.

In Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces had demonstrated they could push Russian invaders back, and Western confidence in Ukraine’s ability to prevail was growing.

Despite the risks to domestic national security, Western nations donated huge quantities of weapons, ammunition and high-tech capability from national stockpiles to support Ukraine’s proposed counteroffensive.

However, as 2023 ends and despite huge casualties, the Ukrainian offensive has done little to move the frontlines, and Russia appears on the front foot in the eastern Donbas region.

What went wrong?

The Ukrainian armed forces have proven amazingly resilient, courageous and determined in combating the military might of Russia. However, determination and resolve need to be matched with military equipment to create decisive military capability.

Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the West recognised that Russia’s illegal invasion could be a precursor to a wider ambition and responded accordingly.

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FILE - Ukrainian soldiers practice on a tank during military training, in Ukraine, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023. A gloomy mood hangs over Ukraine’s soldiers nearly two years after Russia invaded their country. Ukrainian soldiers remain fiercely determined to win, despite a disappointing counteroffensive this summer and signs of wavering financial support from allies. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
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Ukrainian soldiers practice on a tank during training

However, the West was keen not to provoke a wider conflict between NATO and Russia. Growing confidence in Ukraine’s ability to strike back led to promises of Western tanks, ammunition, military training and high-tech precision weapons to support a Ukrainian spring offensive.

Although Russia had not anticipated the level of Ukrainian resistance they encountered initially, they were not about to make the same mistake again. Delays to the provision of Western military support – specifically tanks – meant that this year’s “spring” offensive did not start until June.

This delay enabled Russia to prepare a robust series of defensive lines – the Surovikin Line – comprising trenches, Dragon’s Teeth and minefields.

Ukrainian service members fire an L119 howitzer towards Russian troops near the front-line town of Bakhmut, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine December 21, 2023. REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi
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Ukrainian soldiers fire an L119 howitzer near Bakhmut

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In addition, not since 1917 has a major ground offensive been successfully conducted without air power. Despite President Zelenskyy’s best efforts, the West was not prepared to commit combatants to the conflict, and fighter jets alone would not have provided the capability Ukraine needed.

Indeed, without highly trained pilots, engineers, armourers and fighter controllers, simply donating F-16s risked providing Russia with some high-value aerial target practice.

Ukrainian morale has been buoyed by a series of attacks against Russian resupply lines, oil infrastructure, military HQs and ammo dumps across the year, most notably destroying 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet despite not having a functioning Ukrainian navy.

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Moments after Ukraine destroys Russian ship

However, the key metric of success in this conflict is territory gained, and Ukraine has not been successful at liberating its territory as anticipated.

Ukraine has made small tactical gains across the frontlines, but none proved decisive, and both sides suffered significant casualties.

Crucially, Russia maintained its focus on the Donbas. Despite the inclement winter weather and a casualty rate 50% higher than at the height of the battle for Bakhmut, Russia eventually seized Marinka just days ago.

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Russia seizes city of Marinka

Although the town is in ruins, President Vladimir Putin will be delighted that his forces have once again secured momentum in this grinding war of attrition.

So what next?

Ukraine is critically dependent on Western military and financial support to prevail, yet that support appears to be wavering.

Russia no longer presents a credible near-term threat to the West – it will take a decade to rebuild Russia’s conventional military capability – and the West has other domestic priorities competing for scarce resources.

The West will probably not abandon Ukraine, but it will struggle to match the support provided this past year, and even that was not sufficient to deliver battlefield success for Ukraine.

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President Zelenskyy’s relentless efforts to secure international support for Ukraine were crucial to ensure Ukraine’s survival, but as the war morphs into a more static phase, what next?

Neither side are likely to achieve their objectives, and a prolonged conflict will probably favour Russia in the long term. So, President Putin will end the year emboldened, although whether he is ready to negotiate an end to the conflict remains to be seen.

For a year that started with such optimism for Ukraine, President Zelenskyy now faces some very difficult decisions about his nation’s future – and indeed his own.

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‘I don’t regret anything,’ smiling ISIS militant on death row tells Sky News

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'I don't regret anything,' smiling ISIS militant on death row tells Sky News

Blindfolded and under armed guard, a captured ISIS fighter is brought before us.

When the blindfold is removed, he doesn’t look surprised to see a camera crew and several counterterrorism officers, one of whom interrogated him when he was first caught.

The 24-year-old militant is on death row in Somalia awaiting execution by firing squad, having been accused of being an ISIS commander, as well as a sniper and a member of a two-man bomb squad.

We’ve been given extremely rare access to speak to him and another ISIS recruit in a secure location in Puntland, the semi-autonomous region of northern Somalia where the terror group has been seizing territory and ruling over terrified communities.

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Watch the documentary – Hunting for ISIS: A warning from Africa

US and Somali commanders say ISIS is running its global headquarters in Puntland’s caves, financing its activities worldwide.

Muthar Hamid Qaayid is from Yemen and came to Somalia via a sea route where we’ve witnessed how challenging it is to halt the flow of militant travellers.

He insists he wasn’t an active participant in the two-man bomb squad – and seems entirely unbothered about the situation he now finds himself in.

“I didn’t press the button,” he says. “I just looked. The other man made the bomb and set it off. I didn’t come here to kill Muslims.”

His partner blew himself up as he was planting the bomb in Bosaso city centre and realised he had been discovered.

Officers believe he detonated it prematurely.

The man in front of us was injured, and we are told he had incriminating bomb-making equipment with him.

I ask him if he has regrets about his involvement and joining the militant group.

“I don’t regret anything,” he says, smiling. “Even if you take me out of the room now and execute me, I don’t regret anything.” Again, another smile.

“If they shoot me or hang me, I don’t mind. In the end, I don’t care.”

Tellingly, he says his family does not like ISIS. “If they found me here, they’d be upset,” he says.

Despite persistent questions, he doesn’t shift much. “I’m not thinking,” he insists. “There’s nothing. I’m just waiting for death.”

The ISIS militant speaks to Sky's Alex Crawford
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The ISIS militant speaks to Sky’s Alex Crawford

I ask if he’d heard of people being killed by the bombs he’s accused of planting.

“Yes, but they don’t kill all people,” he insists.

But what about killing anyone, I suggest, slightly puzzled.

“They don’t kill everyone,” he continues. There’s a pause. “Only infidels”.

Infidels is a term many recruits use to describe those who simply don’t agree with their strict interpretation of Sharia – that can include Muslims as well as other religions.

Officials show us multiple foreign passports recovered from ISIS cave hideouts in Puntland and from those they’ve captured or killed.

Passports seized from ISIS hideouts and fighters
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Passports seized from ISIS hideouts and fighters

There are passports for whole families from South Africa, including children, as well as ones from Germany, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Bahrain.

There are also handfuls of IDs which show European faces.

Since a Puntland army offensive was launched last December, just five of the 600 ISIS fighters killed have been Somalis, says Mohamed Abdirahman Dhabancad, Puntland’s political affairs representative.

‘The main target was to rule the world’

The second prisoner brought before us is from Morocco and is much more talkative.

Usman Bukukar Bin Fuad insists he was duped by ISIS and says he only travelled to Somalia because he’d heard he could make money.

Usman Bukukar Bin Fuad claims he only dug caves for ISIS
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Usman Bukukar Bin Fuad claims he only dug caves for ISIS

“Instead, I ended up digging caves,” he says. “It was difficult to escape but when they told me to put on a suicide vest to kill Puntland forces, I said this is not what you told me I would be doing – and I escaped.”

He says he was given a weapon but never used it – a claim not believed by his captors.

“I never joined any fight,” he insists. “I had my weapon [AK47] but I just did normal duties taking supplies from location to location and following orders.”

He says he met the ISIS leader in Somalia, Abdul Qadir Mumin, several times.

“He used to visit all the ISIS camps and encourage them to fight.”

“And he’d reassure us all about going to heaven,” he adds.

It seems to lend credence to the belief that Mumin is still alive and operating – up until a few months ago anyway.

He says he was given training in sniping (which he didn’t finish) and map reading, which was interrupted when the Puntland military offensive began.

He says he travelled over from Ethiopia with six Moroccans, before meeting an Algerian recruit.

Fellow militants in the ISIS mountain stronghold were from countries including Tunisia, Libya, Tanzania, Kenya, Turkey, Argentina, Bangladesh, Sweden, and Iraq.

“The main target or focus was to rule the world,” he says. “Starting with this region as one of the gates to the world, then Ethiopia and the rest of the world.

“I heard so much talk about sending ISIS fighters to Bosaso, Ethiopia or Yemen. Sending people to other parts of the world and ruling the world was all part of the plan.”

The captives’ information has added to the belief that Puntland and Somalia is just the tip of a huge ISIS problem which is spreading and is able to cause terror in a range of ways.

Alex Crawford reports from Somalia with specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Richie Mockler. Photography by Chris Cunningham

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Israel begins first stages of Gaza City takeover operation – as UK condemns settlement plan

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Israel begins first stages of Gaza City takeover operation - as UK condemns settlement plan

Israel has said it has begun the first stages of its takeover of Gaza City – as the UK condemned the approval of plans for a new West Bank settlement.

Brigadier General Effie Defrin, Israel’s military spokesperson, said on Wednesday that “IDF forces are holding the outskirts of Gaza City” after preliminary operations to take the entire area.

An estimated 60,000 reserve soldiers have also been called up to help seize Gaza’s biggest urban centre, but will not report for duty until September, according to a military official.

Israeli troops are already operating in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City, and the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet approved the plans last month, which include an eventual full security takeover of all of Gaza, despite growing international criticism that it will likely lead to the displacement of many more Palestinians.

He is said to have sped up the timeline for taking control of Hamas strongholds after both sides clashed near Khan Younis, south of Gaza City, on Wednesday.

Israel claims it will help any civilians evacuate before any assault begins.

Smoke rises in Gaza City after Israeli strikes. Pic: Reuters
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Smoke rises in Gaza City after Israeli strikes. Pic: Reuters

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Ceasefire proposal being considered

Israeli officials said they are also considering a new ceasefire proposal put forward by Qatar and Egypt.

The deal, which involves a 60-day ceasefire and the release of some of the remaining Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, has already been accepted by Hamas.

Thousands of Israeli civilians have called for the government to accept a ceasefire and reverse its decision to take over Gaza City, but Mr Netanyahu is thought to be under pressure from some far-right members of his coalition to reject the deal and continue to pursue the annexation of the territory.

Relatives and supporters of hostages held by Hamas protest in Israel. Pic: AP
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Relatives and supporters of hostages held by Hamas protest in Israel. Pic: AP

West Bank settlement plan approved

One of those is Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, who announced on Wednesday that a controversial plan for a settlement project in the occupied West Bank had been approved after they received the final go-ahead from Israel’s higher planning committee.

Mr Smotrich, an ultranationalist in the ruling right-wing coalition, said in a statement that the government was delivering with the settlement what it had promised for years: “The Palestinian state is being erased from the table, not with slogans but with actions.”

He said last week that the settlement would “finally bury the idea of a Palestinian state, because there is nothing to recognise and no one to recognise”.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich shows the planned settlement on a map. Pic: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
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Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich shows the planned settlement on a map. Pic: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

‘A stake through the heart of two-state solution’

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned the plan, saying it “would divide a Palestinian state in two”.

In a post on the X social media platform, Mr Lammy called the settlement in the West Bank “a flagrant breach of international law”, which “critically undermines the two-state solution”, and urged the Israeli government to reverse the decision.

The UN also condemned the decision, with spokesperson Stephane Dujarric saying that it “will drive a stake through the heart of the two-state solution”.

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David Lammy called the new West Bank settlement "a flagrant breach of international law". File pic: Reuters
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David Lammy called the new West Bank settlement “a flagrant breach of international law”. File pic: Reuters

Where is the settlement?

The settlement is set to be built in E1, an open tract of land east of Jerusalem, and includes around 3,500 apartments to expand the existing settlement of Maale Adumim.

E1 has been eyed for Israeli development for more than two decades, but plans were halted due to pressure from the US during previous administrations.

A two-state solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict would see a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza existing side by side with Israel.

A view of part of the Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim. Pic: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
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A view of part of the Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim. Pic: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Today, an estimated 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. There is also a growing movement of Israelis wanting to build settlements in Gaza.

Settlers make up around 5% of Israel’s population and 15% of the West Bank’s population, according to data from Peace Now.

Settlements are illegal under international law and have been condemned by the UN. They are, however, authorised by the Israeli government.

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New Zealand: Family’s plea to fugitive dad on the run with children for nearly four years

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New Zealand: Family's plea to fugitive dad on the run with children for nearly four years

The family of a father who disappeared with his three children nearly four years ago in New Zealand have broken their silence to appeal for him to return home.

In December 2021, Tom Phillips vanished into the wilderness with his two daughters and son – but his family have said they still remain hopeful “today will be the day you all come home”.

Phillips, along with Jayda, now aged 12, Maverick, 10, and Ember, nine, were last believed to have been seen in a “credible sighting” last October hiking through a bush area near Marokopa on the country’s North Island.

For the first time, his family have directly appealed to Phillips in the hope that “just maybe, he’s going to see this” and “that we are here for him”.

In an interview with New Zealand journalist Paddy Gower, his sister Rozzi Phillips said she missed being part of her brother’s life, adding “I really want to see you” and “you’re very special to me”.

She also read out a handwritten message from Phillips’ mother, Julia, which came from her “heart, just to her son”.

“Tom, I feel really sad that you thought you had to do this, not considering how much we love you and could support you,” she said.

“It hurts every time I see photos of the children and of you and see some of your stuff that is still here, thinking what could have been if you’d not gone away.”

Tom Phillips. Pic: New Zealand Police
Image:
Tom Phillips. Pic: New Zealand Police

According to New Zealand news site, Stuff, the letter ended with a message for the three children.

“We love you so much and really miss being part of your lives,” it read.

“Every day we wake up and hope that today will be the day you all come home.”

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Ms Phillips said her brother is a skilled builder and would have constructed a shelter.

Police believe his actions could be linked to a custody battle.

There have been numerous reported sightings since December 2021.

The most recent last October was said to be from a distance when the group were seen wearing camouflage gear and carrying large camping backpacks.

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