President Volodymyr Zelenskyy started 2023 full of optimism.
In Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces had demonstrated they could push Russian invaders back, and Western confidence in Ukraine’s ability to prevail was growing.
Despite the risks to domestic national security, Western nations donated huge quantities of weapons, ammunition and high-tech capability from national stockpiles to support Ukraine’s proposed counteroffensive.
However, as 2023 ends and despite huge casualties, the Ukrainian offensive has done little to move the frontlines, and Russia appears on the front foot in the eastern Donbas region.
What went wrong?
The Ukrainian armed forces have proven amazingly resilient, courageous and determined in combating the military might of Russia. However, determination and resolve need to be matched with military equipment to create decisive military capability.
Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the West recognised that Russia’s illegal invasion could be a precursor to a wider ambition and responded accordingly.
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However, the West was keen not to provoke a wider conflict between NATO and Russia. Growing confidence in Ukraine’s ability to strike back led to promises of Western tanks, ammunition, military training and high-tech precision weapons to support a Ukrainian spring offensive.
Although Russia had not anticipated the level of Ukrainian resistance they encountered initially, they were not about to make the same mistake again. Delays to the provision of Western military support – specifically tanks – meant that this year’s “spring” offensive did not start until June.
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This delay enabled Russia to prepare a robust series of defensive lines – the Surovikin Line – comprising trenches, Dragon’s Teeth and minefields.
In addition, not since 1917 has a major ground offensive been successfully conducted without air power. Despite President Zelenskyy’s best efforts, the West was not prepared to commit combatants to the conflict, and fighter jets alone would not have provided the capability Ukraine needed.
Indeed, without highly trained pilots, engineers, armourers and fighter controllers, simply donating F-16s risked providing Russia with some high-value aerial target practice.
Ukrainian morale has been buoyed by a series of attacks against Russian resupply lines, oil infrastructure, military HQs and ammo dumps across the year, most notably destroying 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet despite not having a functioning Ukrainian navy.
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0:44
Moments after Ukraine destroys Russian ship
However, the key metric of success in this conflict is territory gained, and Ukraine has not been successful at liberating its territory as anticipated.
Ukraine has made small tactical gains across the frontlines, but none proved decisive, and both sides suffered significant casualties.
Crucially, Russia maintained its focus on the Donbas. Despite the inclement winter weather and a casualty rate 50% higher than at the height of the battle for Bakhmut, Russia eventually seized Marinka just days ago.
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3:31
Russia seizes city of Marinka
Although the town is in ruins, President Vladimir Putin will be delighted that his forces have once again secured momentum in this grinding war of attrition.
So what next?
Ukraine is critically dependent on Western military and financial support to prevail, yet that support appears to be wavering.
Russia no longer presents a credible near-term threat to the West – it will take a decade to rebuild Russia’s conventional military capability – and the West has other domestic priorities competing for scarce resources.
The West will probably not abandon Ukraine, but it will struggle to match the support provided this past year, and even that was not sufficient to deliver battlefield success for Ukraine.
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President Zelenskyy’s relentless efforts to secure international support for Ukraine were crucial to ensure Ukraine’s survival, but as the war morphs into a more static phase, what next?
Neither side are likely to achieve their objectives, and a prolonged conflict will probably favour Russia in the long term. So, President Putin will end the year emboldened, although whether he is ready to negotiate an end to the conflict remains to be seen.
For a year that started with such optimism for Ukraine, President Zelenskyy now faces some very difficult decisions about his nation’s future – and indeed his own.
On 19 December, 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother Halima Abu Leil was shot in an Israel Defence Forces (IDF) raid on her neighbourhood in Balata refugee camp in Nablus, West Bank.
Two days later, Halima’s children told Sky News their mother was shot six times by Israeli special forces on her way to buy groceries. She died soon after.
Warning this piece includes an image from CCTV of the moment Halima Abu Leil was shot.
“They could see she is an elderly lady but they shot her six times – in her leg, in her chest. When she was first shot in her legs, she knelt on the ground,” her daughter said.
Newly released grainy CCTV footage shows the moment she was shot and reveals that a van marked as an ambulance was used during the surprise IDF raid.
Halima Abu Leil’s family want the footage to be seen.
Sky News’ Data & Forensics unit has analysed the CCTV and geolocated the street where the video was filmed. It is the exact location Halima’s son told us she “fell to her knees” as she was shot.
Three men are also walking down the street. There is no visible contact between them and Halima. Based on our analysis of their silhouettes, the figure in the middle appears to be holding a weapon. They are likely to be neighbourhood militants.
The three men veer to the right, moving into a sunny area. One takes a seat on some stairs, while the other two stand. They join someone sitting there already.
A few yards away, Halima stops in the middle of the street to speak to another woman with a shopping trolley.
An ambulance pulls into vision, separating the two women, and drives slowly down the street. A white van pulls in behind the medical vehicle.
A few moments later, the passenger door of the white van opens and a faint cloud of smoke is visible, suggesting that a gunshot is fired.
This is the moment Halima falls to her knees.
The men, some of them armed, scatter to the right and left into alleyways along with other people in the street.
A detailed analysis of the footage suggests that visible clouds of smoke on the walls are the result of multiple shots. The footage and imagery we gathered from the site of the killing shows bullet holes in the building next to where Halima was standing.
The woman she was speaking to moments earlier takes cover in a doorway.
At the same time, figures who appear to be Israeli military forces exit the ambulance in the foreground. They are equipped with helmets, backpacks, rifles, and other gear.
Armed figures can also be seen leaving the white van in the background. They are seen aiming their weapons down the street.
Halima appears to get hit again and collapses to the floor. The men likely to be neighbourhood militants are not visibly present in the street when this happens.
At the time of our previous report, the IDF said they had conducted “counterterrorism activity” in Balata camp the morning Halima was killed.
We approached the IDF about the CCTV footage and the use of a medical vehicle to conduct their operation.
This was its response: “The IDF is committed to and operates in accordance with international law. The mentioned incident is under review. The review will examine the use of the vehicle shown in the video and the claims of harm to uninvolved individuals during the exchange of fire between the terrorists and our forces.”
The use of a marked medical vehicle for a security operation could be a contravention of the Geneva Convention and a war crime – as well as Halima’s killing.
The United Nations Special Rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese watched the CCTV video and told Sky News she was shocked but not surprised.
She says: “When I look at the footage, what emerges prima facie is that there were no precautions taken – within these operations whose legality is debatable – to avoid or spare civilian life. No principle of proportionality because there was wildfire directed at the identified target and ultimately no respect for the principle of distinction.
“So this was a murder in cold blood and could be a war crime as an extrajudicial killing.”
According to the United Nations Office of Human Rights in occupied Palestinian territory (OHCHR oPt), Israeli security forces and settlers have killed at least 813 mostly unarmed Palestinians, including 15 women and 177 children, since 7 October 2023.
In a statement to Sky News regarding Halima’s killing, the OHCHR oPT said: “Any deliberate killing by Israeli security forces of Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank who do not pose an imminent threat to life is unlawful under international human rights law and a war crime in the context of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian Territory.
“This incident must be investigated independently, effectively, thoroughly, and transparently. If there is evidence of violations of the applicable law enforcement standards, those responsible must be held to account.”
Sophie Alexander, international affairs producer, and Michelle Inez Simon, visual investigations producer, contributed reporting.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.
It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.
Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.
The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.
A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.
Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.
Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.
Pope Francis has been honoured with America’s highest civilian award by President Joe Biden, who has described the pontiff as “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world”.
It is the first time Mr Biden, 82, has given the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction during his four years in office.
In a statement, the White House said the award is “presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world peace, or other significant societal, public or private endeavours”.
Mr Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to Pope Francis, 88, in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency. But the president cancelled his visit to monitor the California wildfires.
The White House said Mr Biden bestowed the award during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world.
The award can be presented with or without distinction.
Mr Biden presented the medal of freedom – without distinction – on 5 January to several people including fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, humanitarian and U2 singer Bono, fashion designer Ralph Lauren and actors Michael J Fox and Denzel Washington.
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Mr Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognised when he was vice president by then president Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago.
The citation for the pope’s honour said his “mission of serving the poor has never ceased”.
“A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths,” it added.