Ukraine and Zelenskyy: What went wrong in 2023? And what next?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy started 2023 full of optimism.
In Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces had demonstrated they could push Russian invaders back, and Western confidence in Ukraine’s ability to prevail was growing.
Despite the risks to domestic national security, Western nations donated huge quantities of weapons, ammunition and high-tech capability from national stockpiles to support Ukraine’s proposed counteroffensive.
However, as 2023 ends and despite huge casualties, the Ukrainian offensive has done little to move the frontlines, and Russia appears on the front foot in the eastern Donbas region.
What went wrong?
The Ukrainian armed forces have proven amazingly resilient, courageous and determined in combating the military might of Russia. However, determination and resolve need to be matched with military equipment to create decisive military capability.
Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the West recognised that Russia’s illegal invasion could be a precursor to a wider ambition and responded accordingly.
Ukrainian soldiers practice on a tank during training
However, the West was keen not to provoke a wider conflict between NATO and Russia. Growing confidence in Ukraine’s ability to strike back led to promises of Western tanks, ammunition, military training and high-tech precision weapons to support a Ukrainian spring offensive.
Although Russia had not anticipated the level of Ukrainian resistance they encountered initially, they were not about to make the same mistake again. Delays to the provision of Western military support – specifically tanks – meant that this year’s “spring” offensive did not start until June.
This delay enabled Russia to prepare a robust series of defensive lines – the Surovikin Line – comprising trenches, Dragon’s Teeth and minefields.
Ukrainian soldiers fire an L119 howitzer near Bakhmut
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In addition, not since 1917 has a major ground offensive been successfully conducted without air power. Despite President Zelenskyy’s best efforts, the West was not prepared to commit combatants to the conflict, and fighter jets alone would not have provided the capability Ukraine needed.
Indeed, without highly trained pilots, engineers, armourers and fighter controllers, simply donating F-16s risked providing Russia with some high-value aerial target practice.
Ukrainian morale has been buoyed by a series of attacks against Russian resupply lines, oil infrastructure, military HQs and ammo dumps across the year, most notably destroying 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet despite not having a functioning Ukrainian navy.
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Moments after Ukraine destroys Russian ship
However, the key metric of success in this conflict is territory gained, and Ukraine has not been successful at liberating its territory as anticipated.
Ukraine has made small tactical gains across the frontlines, but none proved decisive, and both sides suffered significant casualties.
Crucially, Russia maintained its focus on the Donbas. Despite the inclement winter weather and a casualty rate 50% higher than at the height of the battle for Bakhmut, Russia eventually seized Marinka just days ago.
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Russia seizes city of Marinka
Although the town is in ruins, President Vladimir Putin will be delighted that his forces have once again secured momentum in this grinding war of attrition.
So what next?
Ukraine is critically dependent on Western military and financial support to prevail, yet that support appears to be wavering.
Russia no longer presents a credible near-term threat to the West – it will take a decade to rebuild Russia’s conventional military capability – and the West has other domestic priorities competing for scarce resources.
The West will probably not abandon Ukraine, but it will struggle to match the support provided this past year, and even that was not sufficient to deliver battlefield success for Ukraine.
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President Zelenskyy’s relentless efforts to secure international support for Ukraine were crucial to ensure Ukraine’s survival, but as the war morphs into a more static phase, what next?
Neither side are likely to achieve their objectives, and a prolonged conflict will probably favour Russia in the long term. So, President Putin will end the year emboldened, although whether he is ready to negotiate an end to the conflict remains to be seen.
For a year that started with such optimism for Ukraine, President Zelenskyy now faces some very difficult decisions about his nation’s future – and indeed his own.
Thousands of troops are taking part in a joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus, as tensions with the EU run high following a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace earlier this week.
The Zapad joint military exercise which began on Friday will involve drills in both Russia and Belarus as well as in the Baltic and Barents seas, the Russian defence ministry said.
Belarusian defence officials initially said about 13,000 troops would participate in the drill, but in May, its defence ministry said that would be cut nearly in half.
It comes just two days after Poland, with support from its NATO allies, shot down Russian drones over its airspace.
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Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Friday morning hit back at a suggestion by US President Donald Trump on Thursday that the incursion may have been a “mistake”.
He said in a post on X: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Russia said its forces had been attacking Ukraine at the time of the incursions and that it had not intended to hit any targets in Poland.
Friday also saw Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper travelling to Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv on the same day the UK announced fresh sanctions against Moscow.
Prince Harry was also in Kyiv for a surprise visit to help with the recovery of military personnel seriously injured in the three-year war with Russia.
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Prince Harry arrives in Kyiv
Ms Cooper, who was appointed foreign secretary last week, posted about her visit on X saying: “The UK’s support for Ukraine is steadfast. I am pleased to be in Kyiv on my first visit as Foreign Secretary.”
The UK’s new sanctions include bans on 70 vessels that Britain says are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” that transports Russian oil in defiance of sanctions already in place.
Yvette Cooper with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Pic: Valentyn Ogirenko/PA
Some 30 individuals and companies – including Chinese and Turkey-based firms – have also been sanctioned for their part in supplying Russia with electronics, chemicals, explosives and other weapons components.
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Meanwhile on the frontline, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s oil-loading Primorsk port overnight, an SBU official said.
The attack caused fires and suspended oil-loading operations, the official added.
Russian defence systems also intercepted and destroyed 221 Ukrainian drones overnight.
Prince Harry has made a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, a spokesperson for the royal has said.
Harry, who served 10 years in the British Army, visited the city at the invitation of the Ukrainian government.
The Duke of Sussex travelled to the capital to help with the recovery of military personnel seriously injured in the three-year war with Russia.
Pic: Railway of Ukraine Ukrzaliznytsia/AP
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will also be travelling to Kyiv on Friday in what will be her first foreign trip since being appointed to the job last week.
Her visit coincides with the UK launching a new package of Russia-related sanctions targeting ships carrying Russian oil as well as companies and individuals supplying electronics, chemicals and explosives used to make Russian weapons.
It comes as Russia and Belarus began a major joint military exercise on on NATO’s doorstep on Friday, just two days after Poland, with support from its NATO allies, shot down suspected Russian drones over its airspace.
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Drones shot down in Poland
The Zapad-2025 exercise – a show of force by Russia and its close ally – will involve drills in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents seas, the Russian defence ministry said.
Meanwhile on the frontline, Russian defence systems intercepted and destroyed 221 Ukrainian drones overnight,
including nine over the Moscow region, the ministry said on Friday.
The duke told the Guardian while on an overnight train to Kyiv: “We cannot stop the war but what we can do is do everything we can to help the recovery process.
“We can continue to humanise the people involved in this war and what they are going through.
“We have to keep it in the forefront of people’s minds. I hope this trip will help to bring it home to people because it’s easy to become desensitised to what has been going on.”
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Harry, who served two tours in Afghanistan, previously travelled to Ukraine in April, when he visited war victims as part of his work with wounded veterans.
The prince visited the Superhumans Center, an orthopaedic clinic in Lviv that treats and rehabilitates wounded military personnel and civilians.
Earlier this week, Harry said the King is “great” after he reunited with him at Clarence House for a private tea.
It was their first meeting in 19 months and lasted just 54 minutes.
The last time the father and son saw each other was in February 2024 when the prince flew to the UK after the monarch announced his cancer diagnosis.
Harry and his wife Meghan Markle have lived in California since they quit roles as senior working royals in March 2020.
Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup to stay in power after his 2022 election defeat.
The far-right politician, who ruled Brazil between 2019 and 2022, is currently under house arrest in the capital, Brasilia.
A panel of five Supreme Court justices handed down the sentence several hours after they found the 70-year-old guilty on five counts.
The counts were trying to stage a coup, being part of an armed criminal organisation, attempting violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, being implicated in violence, and posing a serious threat to the state’s assets and listed heritage.
Bolsonaro‘s lawyers have said they will appeal the verdict.
Pic: AP
The ruling will deepen political divisions in Brazil and is also likely to prompt a backlash from the United States government – with Donald Trump already sharing his thoughts on the vote.
President Trump, an ally of Bolsonaro, has said he was surprised and “very unhappy” with the decision.
Speaking to reporters outside the White House, he said he always found Bolsonaro “outstanding” and said the conviction is “very bad for Brazil”.
Mr Trump previously called the case a “witch hunt”, slapped Brazil with tariff hikes, and revoked US visas for most members of Brazil’s high court.
Bolsonaro is the first former Brazilian president to be convicted of attempting a coup.
He has not attended the court proceedings, and on Thursday, he was seen at the garage of his property, but did not talk to the media.
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Justice Carmen Lucia. Pic: AP
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has been overseeing the case, said on Tuesday that Bolsonaro was the leader of a coup plot and of a criminal organisation, and voted in favour of convicting him. Justices Flavio Dino, Carmen Lucia, and Cristiano Zanin sided with Justice Moraes in the trial.
On Wednesday, another justice, Luiz Fux, disagreed and voted to acquit the ex-president of all charges.
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Justice Lucia said she was convinced by the evidence the attorney general’s office put forward against Bolsonaro, saying: “He is the instigator, the leader of an organisation that orchestrated every possible move to maintain or seize power.”
Bolsonaro had been previously banned from running for office until 2030 in a different case.
He is expected to choose an heir who is likely to challenge President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva next year.
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