All he does is win: From NAIA dynasty to the CFP, Kalen DeBoer’s pedigree speaks for itself
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
NEW ORLEANS — Kalen DeBoer has been here before. Not in the same way Nick Saban has. But on the eve of the College Football Playoff semifinal, two wins away from a national title, Washington‘s second-year head coach is very much in his element.
DeBoer’s first trip to a semifinal as a head coach was 18 years ago. The accommodations were a bit different then. Coaches shared rooms on the road. There wasn’t an army of volunteers catering to the team’s every need. And Carroll College’s 4,000-seat Nelson Stadium in Helena, Montana — the site of 2005 NAIA semifinal — wasn’t exactly the storied Superdome.
From the outside, there’s a world of difference between the stakes then and now — with tens of millions of people who will be paying attention — but the internal desire to win hasn’t changed. All-in is all-in, regardless of how many other people care.
“We understand what’s at stake here,” DeBoer said. “We win, we get to move on, we get to have the next biggest game of our life. But for right now, this is that one.”
In five seasons as coach at the tiny University of Sioux Falls (South Dakota), DeBoer built his alma mater into a bona fide NAIA powerhouse. DeBoer won as many national titles and had as many undefeated seasons as he had losses (three), amassing a 67-3 overall record with a 17-2 mark in the playoffs.
It was during those years when Washington’s current brain trust — including offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and co-defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell — developed a remarkable level of trust and understanding that made this season’s undefeated run to the Pac-12 title possible.
Lengthy bus rides. Laundry duty. Meager salaries. VHS film sessions. It was all part of the process that Washington is benefitting from. Other small-school coaches hope DeBoer’s success might lead to more opportunities. It’s also a process Washington’s coaches didn’t even consider had the potential to take them to the doorstep of college football’s premier stage.
“We were consumed literally by chasing national championships at that level,” Morrell said. “I think we all thought maybe other opportunities could come, but it wasn’t a daily thing where we were talking about trying to face something bigger.”
In the 14 years since DeBoer moved on from Sioux Falls in search of a different challenge, nothing compares with the enormity of what awaits Monday, as Washington takes on No. 3 Texas in the Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN) for the right to play for the national title.
IN 20 SEASONS at Carroll College, Mike Van Diest had one of the most successful runs of any coach in college football history. He finished with 203 career wins and had a 12-year stretch — from 2000 to 2011 — that included 12 conference titles, six NAIA national crowns and two other appearances in the championship game.
He first crossed paths with DeBoer in 2002 and remembers it well.
“The year we won our first national championship,” Van Diest said.
At the time, DeBoer was Sioux Falls’ offensive coordinator, with Morrell serving as defensive coordinator under coach Bob Young, who they both played for — winning a national title together in 1996. Carroll won 20-17, but Van Diest could tell something was brewing in South Dakota.
“It wasn’t much fun preparing for Kalen, but I always enjoyed watching what he did offensively because he was just amazing,” Van Diest said. “They were always up there, No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 in total offense.”
Van Diest spent two decades as an assistant coach in college football — most notably at Northwestern and his alma mater, Wyoming — before settling in at Carroll, after which, he said, he didn’t make too many new friends in the profession. Recruiting and competing often got in the way of niceties. There were exceptions, though, and DeBoer was one of them.
Starting in about 2005, he said, when DeBoer became the head coach, their relationship started to blossom.
“He and I just struck up a friendship at the national coaches convention,” Van Diest said. “Every year, we would sit and talk about football, we’d talk our goals and dreams. He asked me where I came from, about how I worked my way up to where I came to Carroll.”
One year, Van Diest recalls, DeBoer asked him if he ever thought about going back to Division I to be an assistant. He had lived that life, Van Diest told DeBoer, and was content with where he was. But he remembers getting the sense DeBoer was ready to see what else he could accomplish in coaching.
“There’s a few of us lifers that were in the NAIA, but Kalen had a great future ahead of him, as did a lot of guys on that staff,” Van Diest said. “It was just a natural progression for those guys.
“The more I was around Kalen, playing against him, seeing what he did year after year and the success that he had, he was going to have an opportunity to move on if he wanted to.”
DeBoer’s only two postseason losses came at the hands of Van Diest. None was more humbling than the semifinal game in 2005. On an icy field, nothing went right for Sioux Falls as Carroll won 55-0, the most lopsided defeat DeBoer has ever been a part of.
All these years later, it still stings for those on the losing end.
Upon being reminded recently of that game, Dusty Hovorka, a three-time All-American receiver at Sioux Falls and now the offensive coordinator at FCS Lindenwood, couldn’t help but let out a sigh of frustration.
“It doesn’t leave you,” he said. “Those huge losses, that stuff is still bitter. But what Kalen obviously did a tremendous job of was always adjusting.
“‘Why were we not successful? What do we have to do the next year?’ And for us, it was such a mentality [issue] because we had basically our entire team coming back in 2006.”
That was the year the Cougars broke through, winning the first of three national titles over the next four seasons as they went 56-1. The only loss — to Carroll in 2007 — was memorialized with a picture of Carroll celebrating in the mud on the cover of Sports Illustrated, in the magazine’s Pictures of the Year issue.
“It was something where we just developed such a pride,” DeBoer said. “The culture was becoming contagious and everything we did, whether it was on the field or off — it led to more and more people wanting to be a part of it, even though it was a small college.”
Those teams had three full-time coaches: DeBoer, Morrell and Jon Anderson, Sioux Falls’ current head coach. Grubb joined in 2007, when he signed on for about $3,000 to coach the offensive line and oversee the equipment that fall.
“What we’ve been able to accomplish as a group under Kalen’s guidance, it’s really lightning in a bottle and we had it at Sioux Falls for a number of years,” Morrell said. “And then we kind of broke off and everybody kind of went their own way.”
WITH THE BENEFIT of hindsight, it might seem obvious the success DeBoer’s staff had at Sioux Falls should have been seen as a precursor to more of the same at a higher level, but at the time it was not. At least not to anyone in a position to hire them.
NAIA football operates much differently than the NCAA, especially at the FBS and FCS levels. Teams have 24 scholarships to spread over the whole roster. Coaches wear many hats. Budgets aren’t remotely similar; neither is the recruiting process. Player commitment can be more of a challenge. The X’s and O’s might be where the levels have the most in common, despite the enormous gulf in talent.
It would have taken quite the leap of faith for an athletic director to hand the keys to a higher-level program to DeBoer, despite his near immunity from losing.
“I think the biggest thing is the relationships that you develop in those environments,” Morrell said. “We just created a special bond because of literally how hard everything was. It kind of puts you in that mode of never taking anything for granted. To be as successful as we were during that time frame, it came facing a lot of difficulties that you don’t face at the FBS level.”
DeBoer’s coaching odyssey first took him to FCS Southern Illinois, where he was the Salukis offensive coordinator. From there, it was on to Eastern Michigan, another OC job, this time in the FBS. His offenses there caught the eye of Jeff Tedford, who brought DeBoer to Fresno State as his OC before DeBoer got his first taste of Power 5 ball on Kevin Ball’s staff at Indiana in 2019. At each stop, DeBoer helped the program reach rarely achieved heights.
Then, after Tedford stepped down due to medical reasons after the 2019 season, athletic director Terry Tummey brought DeBoer back to Fresno as head coach.
“Having that understanding of Kalen’s success at the NAIA level really was the difference-maker because it gave you a definite understanding of his capacity to be competitive,” Tummey said. “As we know, head coaches now, you got to be able to have compassion and understanding for what these players are enduring on a day-to-day basis. That’s the part I had seen at Fresno State [when he was the OC]. He was the perfect candidate for us then.”
Other than the three years DeBoer spent at Southern Illinois and his lone season at Indiana, Grubb has been with him the whole time. Grubb’s the playcaller now, but as a tandem they immediately turned Washington into one of the best offenses in college football. The Huskies have led the nation in passing the past two seasons, with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. finishing second in the Heisman Trophy balloting.
Saban pursued Grubb to serve as Alabama‘s offensive coordinator in the offseason, an opportunity that he turned down, but not before a sizable salary increase at Washington.
“Regardless of other opportunities, I think this [being in the playoff] was the reason I came to Washington,” Grubb said. “And I know when Kalen and I first started talking about him taking that job, and if I would go with or not, my response was pretty quick to accept the position, just because it wasn’t necessarily the onset of my career, like, hey, this is exactly what I’m going to do, I’m going to be a Power 5 coordinator, that wasn’t the trajectory at the beginning.”
It was almost surreal, then, when Grubb further reflected on his path in coaching while standing on the turf inside the Superdome, one of football’s most storied venues.
“When I was the offensive coordinator at [Iowa high school] Kingsley-Pierson, I wasn’t like, ‘Man, I can’t wait to be in a semifinal game in playoffs that didn’t exist at that point and a Power 5 coordinator,'” he said. “I was trying to figure out how to get [my running back] the ball.”
Morrell’s path since the Sioux Falls days looks a lot different. After spending 2010 as the defensive coordinator at FCS South Dakota, he became the head coach at Montana Tech, a job he held for nine seasons before leaving to become DeBoer’s defensive coordinator at Fresno State.
“I realized there’s only two people I want to work for,” Morrell said. “I want to work for Kalen or I want to work for myself.
“There’s just an incredible amount of trust. Some of that trust has been built up over the span of now, getting towards 30 years and I think every coach that works for Kalen wants to — like every coach, they want to be successful, they want to win — but then when you’re holding yourself accountable to a person that you really care about, you’re going do it at a different level and at a completely different standard.”
WASHINGTON’S SUCCESS THESE past two years raises an interesting question: Will athletic directors be more willing to tab a lower-level coach with an impressive track record?
It’s not just DeBoer, either. Lance Leipold has revived Kansas with a similar background. He won six NCAA Division III national championships at Wisconsin-Whitewater before a six-year stint at Buffalo, in which he turned that program around.
Both coaches seemingly benefitted from their time at the Group of 5 level. There could be a compelling argument that moving up levels as a head coach translates more seamlessly than going from Power 5 coordinator to Power 5 head coach.
“I think that depends on what athletic director you’re talking about,” Tummey said. “But I’ll tell you this, as a person who’s been in this position, I would value the success of being a head coach at any level just as much as that of being a coordinator at the highest level.
“And the reason why I say that is, is because when you’re a head coach, you just have so many more demands placed on you regardless of the level. To me, that training ground you get as a head coach regardless of the level is invaluable. To me, football is football.”
If hiring trends change, it would bode well for a coach like Doug Socha. Earlier this month, in Year 6 after starting an NAIA program at Keiser University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, his team beat Northwestern (Iowa) to win the national title. It was a season that included 18-hour bus rides and took place in relative anonymity, but the title was celebrated by the players just as much as it will be by their FBS counterparts.
DeBoer’s NAIA history makes him revered by coaches at that level.
“I absolutely think [his success] is good for all of us,” Socha said. “We’re certainly rooting for all these small coaches that have the roots from the smaller levels to do well. Certainly, I think there’s enough proven track record out there to open up opportunities for other coaches.”
Earlier this year, after Washington beat Utah to secure DeBoer his 100th career victory as a head coach, he took a minute to reflect on what’s different at this stage of his career.
“I probably appreciate it more and more,” he said. “Each win, I really do. I think realizing that the moment that these guys are in right now is what’s special to me, and that getting these wins and the experiences that they’re going to have, the memories that they’re going to have that last forever.
“The stories they’re going to be able to tell — hopefully we’re far from being where this all ends — but I think I have appreciation for that and try to give them a dose that every once in a while, but we’re trying to keep the pedal down to where we can realize the real goals that we have for this season.”
Seven weeks later, those goals are still in play.
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Pete Thamel, ESPN
NEW ORLEANS — Considering that half-century in the college football netherworld, Tulane is amid what can only be considered a football renaissance. Spearheaded by former coach Willie Fritz and perpetuated by first-year coach Jon Sumrall, Tulane has won the American Athletic Conference (2022), beaten USC in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and is ranked No. 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Few could have projected Tulane’s place in the national conversation before the recent surge, as Tulane (8-2) looms as an improbable contender — along with No. 13 Boise State and No. 24 Army — for the CFP bid that goes to the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
“They were a beached whale for a lot of years and decades,” former Tulane athletic director Kevin White told ESPN. “The schizophrenia from the campus community was real, relative to college athletics. You’d put on a helmet and shoulder pads when you went to the board meetings.”
These days, the helmets and shoulder pads are saved for the games.
And Tulane has a coach in Sumrall, 42, who is considered to be one the most promising in the sport and embodies the institution’s grander ambitions that come with the taste of success.
And that puts Tulane in a compelling place as a university, as it’s seeing the benefits of recent football relevance and pondering the investments required to stay in the mix and, someday, position itself for a power conference.
“To be able to sustain success is really rewarding, I think, for everybody involved,” Sumrall said in his office last week. “Our players, our staff and the university as a whole, the challenges that come with mid-major football Group of 5 football if you will. Anytime right now you feel like a coach leaves, you’re like, ‘All right, this could go really bad.’ But we’re very fortunate to, things have stabilized.”
Tulane is undefeated in the AAC and a win at Navy (7-2) on Saturday (noon ET on ESPN2) would clinch a spot in the program’s third consecutive conference title game. Tulane beat UCF two years ago, lost to SMU last season and would play Army with a win Saturday.
That type of consistent success — as often happens at the mid-major level — has led to turnover. Athletic director Troy Dannen left for Washington (then soon again for Nebraska) after hiring Fritz in December 2015 and building the program with him. Fritz left for Houston after going 23-4 his final two seasons and beating USC in the Cotton Bowl following the 2022 season.
And Tulane has found itself institutionally trying to both sustain and maximize the success. It hired Huron Consulting, of which White is a senior adviser, to do what COO Patrick Norton calls a “basic diagnosis” of the athletic department.
“[Athletics is] really important to our brand,” Norton said. “Now, how do we capitalize on that? That’s still, I think, in some ways to be determined. I mean, this is fairly recent for us, success from the Cotton Bowl, which was really an amazing experience for the university. One that we hadn’t gone through in a very, very long time.”
One of the clearest signs of Tulane’s football aspirations came immediately after last season. In the wake of Fritz’s departure to Houston and in essentially athletic director David Harris’ first week on the job, they lured the hottest coach in the Sun Belt. Sumrall had won back-to-back league titles at Troy while going 23-4, and drew interest in the last cycle from Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
Sumrall agreed to a six-year deal that’s believed to be near the top of the AAC. For a place that lagged behind so far and for so long, Harris’ immediate aggression and commitment showed that Tulane didn’t want to drift off the map for another half-century.
“Jon has had a great impact on us,” Harris told ESPN. “I think his name and his success coming in the door gave what we were continuing to try to build here at Tulane, immediate credibility because people knew his background, his success, what he had been able to do at Troy, the connection that he had had here [as a former assistant].”
To remain in the conversation for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, Tulane will need to keep winning and get help from some of Boise State’s Mountain West foes. But it’s entirely viable, and a testament to the school’s ability to maintain through significant turnover.
Tulane’s place in the national conversation is a fitting dividend from it’s increased investment in football. It was an object of the desire of the Pac-12 and continued success could vault it into conversations as leagues remain in flux.
Norton said that the travel in the Pac-12 loomed as an issue for Tulane and the school didn’t see a certain financial benefit from a move.
“We were leaving something that is more certain to less certain,” Norton said, “and frankly, it’s not the Pac-12 that we always knew, that we grew up with that John Wooden and UCLA and USC. It just wasn’t the same. I’m not saying that these schools aren’t solid, very good schools, but it’s not the same. And it was different than what we wanted, and so I think the decision wasn’t that hard, but we listened.”
But being courted by a league is a sign of Tulane’s evolution and success in athletics. And Sumrall said he has felt the support.
“I think that the readiness and the commitment is real,” Sumrall said. “I think that the university is seeing what football can do for the university. It’s galvanized so many people and I think it’s created a lot of exposure, and I think that that only empowers the desire to maybe help it grow even further.”
Sumrall spent three as an assistant coach at Tulane from 2012-14. He loved the city, watched guys like Leonard Fournette and Odell Beckham Jr. play high school ball. He loved the culture of the city — his favorite steakhouse is Mr. John’s down on St. Charles Avenue, and he has dabbled with the alligator cheesecake at Jacques-Imo’s. He always thought the collision of local talent and the city’s uniqueness could yield big dividends for a program stuck in neutral so long.
“So to me, that mixture of things was something that stood out to me when I was here previously,” Sumrall said. “And then the moment that’s been created with the most recent success the last few years really showed, I think, that there was an opportunity to maybe capture some positive things that have happened.”
Sumrall’s final season as an assistant coach coincided with the move to Yulman Stadium on campus and to the AAC in 2014. That marked a move out of the SuperDome, a cavernous dark hole for Tulane games that Sumrall likened to “playing in a cave.”
Since he has returned, Sumrall has seen the team being on campus and the success under Fritz energize Tulane football in New Orleans. He complimented Dannen’s decision to bring back the Angry Wave logo — fitting for a quirky city like New Orleans — and said the excitement felt today can be linked to the campus hosting football games.
“Ten years ago when I was here, I don’t think anybody here gave a damn. The city didn’t care,” he said. “There was no connection. Now you feel like a real connection. So that part’s really cool.”
Sumrall values that connection. He and his wife, Ginny, live nearby and take frequent walks on campus. She joins him when he traverses campus on Thursdays and checks in on the players classes, something Sumrall likes to do as a way to connect with the players. His presence there also stresses the academic component, which is critical at Tulane.
The roster that Sumrall as assembled is a modern mosaic of what roster building looks like, as he brought in 58 new players, including 53 transfers. He also has benefited from holdovers at quarterback and tailback who’ve both emerged as stars.
Tailback Makhi Hughes leads the AAC in rushing yards with 1,209. He averages 5.7 yards per carry and has scored 13 rushing touchdowns and two more receiving.
Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,059 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has completed 65.6% of his passes and has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the Group of 5.
Mensah has led a balanced offense under veteran coordinator Joe Craddock that is No. 4 nationally in scoring with 41.0 points per game. Tulane is also Top 20 in scoring defense and total defense under coordinator Greg Gasparato.
Sumrall’s teams at Troy had a knack for winning close games, as Sumrall joked they went a “modest 12-2” his first year there. So far at Tulane, his team has lost only to then-No. 15 Oklahoma and then-No. 17 Kansas State, and it has handled the rest of the competition. In Tulane’s eight wins, it has won by an average of more than 30 points.
As Tulane enters the finishing kick, the program will face the same micro conundrum that it faces in the macro as a university in athletics — retaining talent and spending enough money in order to remain competitive. That includes coaches, staff and players, in an era where the financial separation is distinct compared to the power leagues.
While there’s limited movement expected in Power 4 coaching this year, Sumrall’s 31-6 career record will make him coveted this year and beyond. Mensah, who has three years of eligibility left, has authored the type of season that already has quarterback-needy schools putting together bids.
The success for Tulane is real, but so is the annual challenge to maintain it. With the ambition and momentum Tulane has gathered comes the challenge of keeping it going.
“As you look at the next several years, and the changing landscape of college athletics, people feel that there’s really a place for Tulane within the college football landscape and just overall being a stronger athletics brand,” Harris said. “And so to be in this position is incredibly exciting. It’s a big responsibility because you want to be a part of keeping the trajectory going up and keeping the excitement going and keeping the momentum going.”
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Neil Paine
Hockey is a notoriously chaotic sport in which you need a large sample of games to know what’s real versus what’s just noise. For instance, it is estimated that it takes the entire 82-game NHL season to give us as much information about team quality as just 32 NBA games — or less than half the regular season — do.
So it’s always risky to draw grand conclusions from what we see over the first month of play on the ice. But that can’t stop us from finding interesting trends emerging from the early portion of the schedule.
Here are seven initial developments that have taken us by surprise in 2024-25 so far:
1. Ovechkin’s comeback against Father Time
One of the biggest storylines heading into the season was Alex Ovechkin‘s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, with the Great 8 starting the season trailing The Great One by 41 scores.
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Sean Allen
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Fantasy Hockey
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010
Another week, another No. 1 landing spot for the Winnipeg Jets in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings. But who finishes 2-32?
Plus, it’s another fantasy hockey takeover week, with Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash identifying one player per team who is off to a slow start (relative to his teammates or expectations) and advising fantasy managers whether to have patience or panic at this time.
And as a reminder, it’s not too late to join ESPN Fantasy Hockey. Sign up for free and start playing today!
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 8. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 88.24%
Cole Perfetti, LW (28.9% rostered in ESPN Fantasy leagues): As difficult as it is to find fault with anything Jets-related these days, Perfetti isn’t quite meeting 2024-25 fantasy expectations yet. But the 22-year-old remains cemented on the Jets’ second scoring line and power play, and he has pitched in enough multipoint showings to merit another look in deeper leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 16), vs. FLA (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.33%
Brent Burns, D (69.5%): The writing had been on the wall, faintly sketched with a carpenter’s pencil, but now it’s been retraced in ink. Shayne Gostisbehere has the power play on lock, and Burns doesn’t put up the points without it now. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 16), vs. STL (Nov. 17), @ PHI (Nov. 20), @ NJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 67.65%
Gustav Forsling, D (68.8%): Playoff heroics can inflate rostership numbers even this far into the future, but Forsling isn’t a must-have fantasy contributor. You can find a defenseman with a higher ceiling among your league’s free agents. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 16), @ WPG (Nov. 19), @ CHI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 78.13%
Marc-Andre Fleury, G (51.8%): As long as Filip Gustavsson continues to perform dependably well, the veteran No. 2 isn’t going to play much. There are other lesser-rostered backups in the league — Jake Allen and Jonathan Quick come to mind — who offer more fantasy punch than Fleury. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 16), @ STL (Nov. 19), @ EDM (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 70.00%
Matt Roy, D (45.6%): After a breakout fantasy campaign with the Kings last season, cut Roy some slack. He has had only a handful of games to get used to his new teammates, and the minutes are there to get the job done. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 15), @ VGK (Nov. 17), @ UTA (Nov. 18), vs. COL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 70.00%
Mika Zibanejad, C (95.6%): Zibanejad has had slow starts before — 1.78 FPPG in 2021-22 and 1.93 FPPG last season — yet still finished over 2.00 FPPG. His current 1.58 FPPG isn’t alarming. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 17), @ VAN (Nov. 19), @ CGY (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 68.75%
Brayden McNabb, D (52.3%): Returning to his selfless ways — highlighted by five blocked shots against the Ducks Wednesday — McNabb is already working back into his fantasy managers’ good graces. While hardly a prolific producer, the veteran should start pitching in a few more points, too. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ UTA (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 17), @ TOR (Nov. 20), @ OTT (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65.00%
Luke Hughes, D (39.1%): He did an admirable job filling in for an injured Dougie Hamilton as a rookie last season, but unless that situation arises again, it looks as though Hughes is out of the limelight for this campaign. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TB (Nov. 16), vs. CAR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.67%
Roope Hintz, C (79.8%): Some bad puck luck, illustrated by his 6.7% shooting percentage through six recent contests (career: 16.5%), is partially to blame for Hintz’s current skid. But the perennial 30-plus goal scorer is bound to get back on track soon, especially once Peter DeBoer inevitably juggles his lines again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 18), vs. SJ (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 63.33%
Filip Hronek, D (51.9%): He’s averaging approximately a single shot and blocked shot per game. Unlike last season, the compensatory scoring isn’t there to make up for those shortcomings. Hronek appears far more valuable to the Canucks as Quinn Hughes‘ defensive partner than to his fantasy managers. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 16), vs. NSH (Nov. 17), vs. NYR (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 58.33%
Quinton Byfield, RW (43.2%): The lack of a single power-play point is one concern, along with his removal from the top unit. Through the fantasy lens, so is Byfield’s third-line role. If all remains as is, we might be in for another season of inconsistent fantasy returns. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 16), vs. BUF (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 61.11%
Matthew Knies, LW (42.4%): He has been making hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as he gets first power-play unit access while Auston Matthews is out. The confidence boost should carry over to when Matthews returns, and they are linemates again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 16), vs. VGK (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 55.88%
Jeff Skinner, C (45.0%): Afforded the opportunity to compete alongside just about every Oiler up front, including two of the best centers in the biz, the veteran winger has nonetheless failed to offer much of a productive presence. Now Skinner appears relegated to Edmonton’s fourth line. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 16), @ MTL (Nov. 18), @ OTT (Nov. 19), vs. MIN (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 56.67%
Jake Guentzel, LW (98.8%): Guentzel’s overall output is fantastic already, but with just two power-play points so far, he has yet to add his usual production with the man advantage. If he does, his already strong fantasy profile could get a big boost. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 16), @ PIT (Nov. 19), @ CBJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 52.94%
Devon Toews, D (66.7%): While it has taken the defender time to warm up after a delayed start to 2024-25, Toews now appears back in his groove: blocking shots, contributing to the score sheet and skating more minutes than nearly everyone else. Cale Makar‘s partner hasn’t averaged 0.58 points per game throughout his career by accident. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Nov. 15), @ PHI (Nov. 18), @ WSH (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.13%
Linus Ullmark, G (84.8%): The Senators are showing signs of competing, and we know Ullmark is capable of being among the best. Patience might already be paying off with some of his recent road outings against tough division rivals. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 19), vs. VGK (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.88%
Nazem Kadri, C (78.4%): While no one is scoring much for the Flames these days, including their No. 1 center, this too shall pass. Perhaps it’ll play out like last season, when Kadri collected two points in October before erupting for 13 in November, then maintained that scoring pace for the duration of the season. Also, he shoots the puck a lot. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Nov. 15), vs. NYI (Nov. 19), vs. NYR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50.00%
Charlie McAvoy, D (89.9%): The Bruins’ offense might be slower this season, but McAvoy’s 1.64 FPPG is still too low. Give him time. Not enough has changed to drop him far from his 2.29 FPPG average over the past three seasons. Verdict: Patience
Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 16), vs. CBJ (Nov. 18), vs. UTA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.13%
Barrett Hayton, C (17.5%): According to analysis by Evolving Hockey, the third-line center (for now) should be scoring more goals in accordance with the quality of his shots. That offers some comfort in light of his current skid. While Hayton certainly needs to play more minutes and shoot on net more often, he doesn’t merit giving up entirely in deeper fantasy leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 18), @ BOS (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.94%
Brock Nelson, C (76.9%): The Isles’ collective offense isn’t weaker than it has been for several years. Nelson has averaged 2.03 FPPG across the past three seasons. He’ll come around. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 16), @ CGY (Nov. 19), @ DET (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50.00%
Patrick Kane, RW (66.3%): If the Red Wings’ power play were in the dumps, maybe we could preach patience for Kane. But it’s not, and it might be time to move on from Kane in fantasy. He is getting all the opportunities required and is just not producing. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 15), @ LA (Nov. 16), @ SJ (Nov. 18), vs. NYI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50.00%
Dylan Cozens, C (49.3%): It is time to move off Cozens. He had that banner 2022-23 but is now matching the reduced fantasy production that lasted all of last season. Even an uptick in performance might not be enough to get to fantasy relevance from his current 1.41 FPPG. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 16), @ LA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50.00%
Adam Larsson, D (60.5%): Despite the relative drought, the top-pair defenseman still blocks a sufficient number of shots to merit rostering in deeper standard leagues. Plus, he’ll soon fall back into his usual (however relatively modest) scoring groove. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Nov. 16), vs. NYR (Nov. 17), vs. NSH (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 44.12%
Jordan Binnington, G (55.1%): After winning the season opener against Seattle, the Blues’ No. 1 has yet to beat anyone outside of the Atlantic Division. Shouldering a 4-7-0 record, .887 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against average, Binnington has cost his fantasy managers a total net loss of 1.8 points. Yes, negative points. There are likely brighter days ahead for the banged-up Blues, but when? Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 16), @ CAR (Nov. 17), vs. MIN (Nov. 19), vs. SJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 47.06%
Joel Farabee, LW (50.7%): Farabee, Tyson Foerster, Scott Laughton; Take your pick of Flyers who were just picking up some fantasy momentum in their career but have been buried on the depth chart by the new core group. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Nov. 16), vs. COL (Nov. 18), vs. CAR (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 38.24%
Teuvo Teravainen, RW (41.4%): The Blackhawks’ offseason acquisition has one goal and zero assists in his past 11 games, and he isn’t shooting with any consistency. Even back on a scoring line with Connor Bedard, Teravainen can’t be counted on to contribute regularly enough. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 19), vs. FLA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 41.67%
Erik Karlsson, D (94.1%): It’s been a season and a quarter now, so what we see from Karlsson as a Penguin might be what we get. He’s not the sole source of offense, so downgraded fantasy output is just the new normal. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Nov. 15), vs. SJ (Nov. 16), vs. TB (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 40.00%
Ivan Provorov, D (19.2%): No one on the Blue Jackets is underperforming in a big way, but even 20% rostership is too high for Provorov. If he’s not on the first pair, you can safely pretend he’s not there. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 15), @ MTL (Nov. 16), @ BOS (Nov. 18), vs. TB (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 38.24%
Gustav Nyquist, RW (16.6%): Once replaced by Steven Stamkos on the Predators’ top line, Nyquist lost most of his fantasy charm. It’s no coincidence the winger was at his most productive when skating alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 15), @ VAN (Nov. 17), @ SEA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 40.00%
Lukas Dostal, G (60.7%): The Ducks allow the most shots against (35.5 per game) while scoring the fewest goals (2.20 per game). Plus, a healthy John Gibson is back to share Anaheim’s crease. Dostal’s successful fantasy run was fun while it lasted. It’s time to move on. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 15), @ DAL (Nov. 18), @ CHI (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.11%
William Eklund, LW (56.2%): The sophomore is playing a ton of minutes, pitching in assists and now skating on a scoring line with Mikael Granlund. Which is a good thing. Yes, we’d all like to see him shoot more. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 16), vs. DET (Nov. 18), @ DAL (Nov. 20), @ STL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 35.29%
Sam Montembeault, G (22.3%): The Habs don’t look like they’ll win enough for Monty to shine in redraft leagues, but if you drafted him for a keeper league, there are positive signs for the future. Verdict: Patience, at least for the long term.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 18)
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