Inside Nick Saban’s school of QB development, from practice field trash talk to Sunday morning film sessions
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Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff Writer
Greg McElroy recalled waiting until after his freshman year in 2007 to ask Alabama coach Nick Saban for a favor. McElroy figured Saban didn’t need the whole backstory about his dad’s lifelong dream to see him wear Joe Namath’s number, so he pulled Saban aside one day and asked him straight up for the change to No. 12.
“You know,” Saban said, “that’s the number I wore.”
McElroy said he shot back, “Yeah, that’s of course why I want to switch to it. Namath, [Kenny] Stabler, those guys have nothing to do with it. It’s really about you.”
Saban obliged, but the accommodation came with expectations. Because Saban not only wore No. 12, he wore it while quarterbacking his high school to a state championship in 1968. It’s a fact that every Alabama quarterback who spoke to ESPN said they were aware of — even Bryce Young, who wasn’t born until three decades later. Young grinned and said Saban will “tell you about the West Virginia days, for sure.”
A former Monongah High teammate, Walter Baranski, said Saban was “the top dog out there.” Jim Pulice, another teammate, added, “He could walk out on the field and see a defense and catch it all.”
Tua Tagovailoa said Saban would boast that “he’s the best athlete.” Saban was well rounded, all-state in basketball and baseball as well. If he wasn’t a few hairs shy of 6-feet, he might have lasted longer as a quarterback at Kent State before making the switch to defensive back. “I couldn’t see as well, especially in the pocket,” Saban recalled of the transition to college. “But if it just came to throwing the ball and doing that stuff, I was OK.”
While he never switched back to offense, instead developing into one of the preeminent defensive minds in football, his background playing quarterback informed his relationship with the position as a head coach. We spoke to seven current or former starters at Alabama to learn more about their day-to-day interactions. Together, they told the story of a coach who invests his time in order to build trust and ultimately benefit the team. There are regular one-on-one meetings that can range from discussion of X’s and O’s and personnel to how to handle interpersonal relationships and the grind of a long season — all made lighter by Saban’s occasional ribbing.
“I threw a good spiral,” McElroy said. “But in the rare instance if I threw a ball that wasn’t perfect or wasn’t pretty, you were going to hear about it from him.”
Blake Sims, who started 14 games for Alabama in 2014, can picture Saban now, running behind him after the stretch period of practice and chiding him, “Hey 6, I bet you can’t throw the ball like this.” Saban would then gather the defensive backs for individual drills, planting his right leg and tossing passes to them as they ran down the sideline. Always a good loft, almost always a tight spiral.
“Hey 6,” Sims remembers Saban bellowing, “you need to come over here and throw like this.”
Jake Coker, who followed Sims as the starter, laughed at his version of the same story. He said it’s a shame most people don’t get to experience Saban’s sharp sense of humor, including some “legendary jokes” he says aren’t fit for print.
“There’s something funny about seeing a 70-year-old in a straw hat throwing the ball around and cussing 20-year-olds out,” Coker said.
While Saban was never shy about dolling out a tongue-lashing in public, in private Coker and other former Alabama quarterbacks paint a different picture of the coach. Coker said Saban met with him often while he battled Cooper Bateman for the starting job early in 2015. Saban sensed Coker getting in his own way — too worried about messing up and agonizing over his reads instead of letting the ball go.
“He’d talk to me and get me to a place where I was going out there and reacting instead of overthinking each moment,” Coker said. “A lot of our conversations were tailored toward the mental aspect.”
He added, “I would say he’s the best at managing emotions of any coach I’ve been around. I mean, when he gets mad, you know you deserve it. And when he pats you on the back, you deserve it.”
This year’s starter, Jalen Milroe, has felt both the sting of disappointment and the joy of success with Saban — and often in a public setting.
Along the way, as Alabama recovered from an early-season loss and found its way back to the College Football Playoff, Saban challenged Milroe.
“Embrace hard,” Milroe recalled Saban telling him, “and embrace the role of being a quarterback and being a leader of the team.”
SIMS AND OTHERS describe Saban as something of a clairvoyant, knowing exactly the right buttons to push at exactly the right time. It certainly looked that way at halftime of the 2017 national championship when Saban benched former SEC Offensive Player of the Year Jalen Hurts in favor of a true freshman, Tagovailoa. And it worked again this season when he sat Milroe a week after he threw two interceptions in a loss to Texas. Milroe responded by finishing sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting and leading Alabama to the playoff, where it will face Michigan in the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential on Monday (5 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Sims said he’s asked all the time about what makes Saban different — how can he bench an accomplished starter and not lose them for the rest of the season? Hurts sat most of the 2018 season behind Tagovailoa but was ready to go when his number was called in the SEC championship game, coming off the sideline to beat Georgia after Tagovailoa was hobbled by an ankle injury. Sims said that’s possible only because Saban makes a point of getting to know his players, so he understands how to keep them motivated and engaged.
“I was that type of player that if you tell me I won the position, maybe I might slack off a little bit. But if I knew I was always in competition, I played to the top of my ability,” Sims said. “And maybe Coach Saban knew that. …’Just as quick as I named you the starting quarterback, I can take it from you.'”
Go back to the 2014 season after Sims came out of the gates hot, throwing for 445 yards and four touchdowns against Florida in a pivotal Week 4 matchup. He went from a former receiver no one expected anything from to one of the most exciting players in the SEC.
And then Saban stopped him in the hallway one day.
“I had nothing but rat poison all on me. He could just smell it and everything,” Sims said. “And he just pulled me in his office and just gave it to me. I can’t remember his exact words, but he just gave me an ear full.
“When I walked out of there, man, I think I went straight to the weight room.”
Sims laughed.
“How he finds things out, I don’t know,” he said. “I still wonder to this day.”
But go back a few weeks earlier, the morning of the Florida game that put Sims on the map, and you get another side of Saban’s mentorship.
Sims was nervous — it being his first start in Bryant-Denny Stadium — as he headed to breakfast at the team hotel. That’s when strength coach Scott Cochran growled at him, “Walk around that corner. Coach Saban wants to talk to you.”
Saban was waiting for him and said, “So Sims, what do we need to do to get you going? For you to be comfortable?”
Sims decided to be honest.
“Coach,” he said, “when I go fast it gets me in my rhythm where I don’t have to think. Let’s just go.”
Saban asked, “So NASCAR?” which is shorthand for the hurry-up offense.
Sims said yes.
Saban shook his head and said, “OK.”
That Saban wanted his input was humbling, Sims said. That he was open to shifting from a ball-control style of offense to more uptempo was a lesson Sims said he thinks about a lot now, coaching at Mt. Bethel Christian Academy in Marietta, Georgia.
“Seeing him do that lets you know even when you’re at the top of your game, you still need help,” he said. “You can’t do it by yourself.”
Sims cherishes his relationship with Saban. He went from being unsure about whether Saban knew his name to being comfortable tossing barbs back and forth.
Saban told Sims often about his Monongah days, specifically how he was given the freedom by his coach to call plays.
“But we let him know, ‘Hey, Coach, you play in this day and time and we’ll smack you,'” Sims said.
Speaking to Milroe earlier this season, Saban leaned on his hoops background, advising the dual-threat QB to “be a point guard with the ball and get the ball to playmakers to allow explosive plays.”
“Initially, you’d probably think it was just Coach Saban talking, but it’s also an opportunity for me to talk,” Milroe said of their conversations. “A lot of times, we just talk about life. He’s helped me with some personal things, and he’s been there for me throughout the season. The main thing is that we both talk, what we see in games, feedback from games. He sees a lot of things I don’t see, and he’s always willing to listen if I see something.”
Young enjoyed two seasons starting for Saban and “being able to have a conversation about some bigger picture stuff — about the team, about stuff he’s feeling, what he sees, what he needs from us as leaders, and us, our side.”
“We’re all kind of working towards that same goal,” he said. “So it was really cool just coming as a freshman, proving myself. That’s something you have to earn at Alabama. You have to earn that trust, earn everything. And then getting to that point definitely my last two years of building our relationship and then being to where it is now, I’m super grateful.”
AJ McCARRON REMEMBERS his Sunday morning one-on-one debriefing sessions with Saban.
“He was always up there early,” he recalled. “We would sit there and watch the film from the game, and most of the time we’d watch the whole film, kind of just see the flow of the game, talk about the flow, talk about their defense, what else they could have done, what we could have done as an offense, in my opinion.
“But I liked doing that as a freshman just because I got to learn a lot, even from the defensive side, what’s their thought process on things and how they see certain formations and how they plan to cover certain routes and stuff.”
Sometimes, McElroy said, you’d look forward to those meetings. Other times, not so much.
“You could kind of tell where the meeting was going to go based on how you played,” McElroy said.
Asked if he was thinking of a specific meeting, McElroy groaned.
“One in particular,” he said. “It was awful.”
It was the Sunday after playing Ole Miss in 2009. It was McElroy’s first truly hostile road environment, Alabama was undefeated, and the Rebs were ranked. And McElroy was off from the start. Coaches called “Boom,” which McElroy said is a “smash concept with a guy in the flat and a guy running a corner.”
The first time, he threw it into double coverage to Julio Jones for an incompletion.
The next time, on the opposite end of the field, he again threw it into double coverage to Jones for an incompletion.
It just so happened that both times the receiver in the flat was wide open.
McElroy woke up Sunday morning dreading going to Saban’s office.
“I knew he would say, ‘Why didn’t you take the flat?’ And I didn’t really have a reason,” he said. “You can’t say I was looking at the rush.”
Never mind he had a good excuse.
“Greg Hardy cleaned my clock on the first play of the game,” he said.
So McElroy thought about it and came up with an admittedly “ridiculous excuse” about Julio being open.
Saban wasn’t buying it.
“He was so disgruntled, he wanted me to go down and get checked for a concussion because my reads were so bad,” McElroy said. “I know it was his way of jabbing at me. He said, ‘You need to go down and see [head trainer Jeff Allen] and get checked. That’s ridiculous.’
“Jeff was a good sport about it, Coach was a good sport about it. After the fact we can laugh about it. But at the time, it was like, ‘Oh, God. I can’t believe I made the same mistake twice.’ Because the one thing was, he could live with a mistake. That happens. But you make the same mistake twice, you need to tighten it up.”
In games, McElroy and other quarterbacks described Saban as mostly hands off. The only time they’d hear from him is if they committed a mental error — like the time Coker didn’t throw the ball away at the end of the first half of a blowout win and cost the team a field goal.
“That was one of those headset-tearing-apart moments where he got me pretty much from the sideline all the way to the tunnel,” Coker said. “It was one of those where as soon as I did it I thought, ‘Oh my God, you’re such a dumbass. I know I’m going to hear about this all the way back to the locker room.’ And I did. He lost his mind.”
Coker couldn’t remember exactly what Saban said, it was such a blur of expletives. Coker muttered “Yes, sir” again and again in hopes it would end the conversation quicker.
“If it’s within your mental control, I mean, he’s going to be mad about it,” he said. “But if you’re going 100% and you just screw it up, then he can live with that. If you screw up, he moves on. And if you throw a good ball, he is high-fiving.”
It turns out that backups get worn out a lot more than starters, McElroy said, and with good reason.
“He didn’t want to affect the starter’s confidence and he wanted to just make sure the starter felt good,” he said. “And the backup, if you make a mistake, you’re very much in developmental mode at that point, so your confidence isn’t quite as important.”
So much of playing quarterback is what happens between the ears, and Saban is careful to keep that in mind.
When Coker met with him, they didn’t spend a ton of time going over the playbook, he said. It was more about situational awareness — “on and off the field.” Coker said Saban gave him good advice on how to “maneuver through the season” and handle personal relationships on the team.
Together, they won a national championship.
And, like Milroe, it started with Coker riding the bench early in the season.
Would he have liked to avoid the stress of all that? Sure.
But he can’t argue with the results.
“I don’t know, maybe if I was named the starter and I knew that everybody that had my back I would’ve gone in and played with a lot more confidence and played with no restraint as well,” Coker said. “But I know benching me made me that way for sure.”
ESPN reporters Ben Baby, David Newton and Marcel Louis-Jacques contributed to this story.
NBC Sports host Mike Tirico said Monday he is feeling fine after having to leave the Kentucky Derby broadcast early over the weekend because of a strong reaction to a nut allergy.
“I’ve had a nut allergy my whole life and am usually very, very careful,” Tirico said on the “Today” show. “I ate something that had a nut in it and had a nut allergy, causing your throat and your nose and all that stuff to kind of clog up and swell. It affects your breathing a little bit.”
Tirico said he took an epinephrine shot and was treated by EMTs at Churchill Downs. He began feeling better later Saturday night.
“I’m embarrassed about the attention,” he said.
Ahmed Fareed took over for the 58-year-old broadcaster, who was hosting Derby coverage for the ninth year.
Tirico is set to host the Preakness Stakes on NBC on May 17.
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Bradford Doolittle
Something has to change.
Of course, much has already changed since we last convened with our final preseason projections. But for each MLB team, playing five weeks of a new season will inevitably expose additional shifts that are needed. Every team, no matter how splendid or how dreadful the start, has something.
One thing the forecasts suggested that has borne out so far is the relative levels of stratification between the leagues. The National League, led by the champion Dodgers, looked top-heavy, and while not all of the teams we thought would make up that elite tier are a perfect match with the forecasts, the overall dynamic is very much one of dominance. Meanwhile, the American League figured to be a whole bunch of teams in spitting distance of break even, with little separation among the top 12-13 teams in the circuit.
How will these dynamics hold up until we Stock Watch again in June?
Each team’s ability, or lack thereof, to make the following changes might determine that.
Win average: 104.5 (Last: 102.4, 1st)
In the playoffs: 98.8% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 28.5% (Last: 28.4%)
What must change: Rotation health
There were actually some bumpy moments in the early weeks of the season for the Dodgers but nothing has happened to really knock them out of the favorite’s perch as we think ahead to late October. One thing that could change that is L.A.’s ever-growing injured list, especially its collection of 60-day IL assignments. For all the depth the Dodgers seemed to build up in their rotation over the winter, they’ve still gone with two bullpen games already. And this doesn’t even include Shohei Ohtani, who’s still building up so he can take his turns in the rotation. Given their recent history of starter injuries … maybe he shouldn’t? Including the two openers, the Dodgers have already had 10 different pitchers start games.
Win average: 96.0 (Last: 90.2, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 88.6% (Last: 73.5%)
Champions: 10.5% (Last: 6.0%)
What must change: Middle relief instability
There hasn’t been much to complain about with the Mets. Though New York hasn’t overtaken the Dodgers in the simulations from a going-forward perspective, the Mets have probably been the better team to this point. The Dodgers have the better winning percentage, but the Mets’ Pythagorean pace (109.7) is the National League’s best. With not much to nitpick about, the relief contingent in front of Edwin Diaz needs to coalesce a little more. Ryne Stanek has the pen’s second-highest average leverage index but has struggled, and the two top lefties (A.J. Minter and Danny Young) have already been lost to injury. Still, if this is a team’s biggest worry at the beginning of May, it’s in a good place.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 84.3, 13th)
In the playoffs: 92.7% (Last: 51.2%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last: 1.5%)
What must change: Ninth-inning drama
The Cubs have mostly bludgeoned their opposition so far with a breakout offense that ranks among baseball’s best in pretty much every major category. Assuming Chicago won’t average over six runs per game all season, eventually its thin bullpen is going to move into the spotlight. The Cubs have blown seven of their first 15 save opportunities. Closer Ryan Pressly has managed to white-knuckle his way through most of his outings but has struck out fewer than four batters per nine innings, with more walks than K’s. Overall, Chicago’s relievers rank 28th in swing-and-miss percentage, underscoring the general lack of dominance in that unit. The Cubs have been strong in every other facet but for them to establish themselves as a true front-runner, the relief leaks will need to be shored up.
Win average: 93.7 (Last: 83.0, 16th)
In the playoffs: 91.7% (Last: 41.2%)
Champions: 10.1% (Last: 1.8%)
What must change: Shortstop play
You hate to pick on Trey Sweeney, who accounts for most of Detroit’s starts at shortstop, but there just aren’t many shortcomings for the Tigers so far. No team has improved its forecast more since the start of the season. Detroit is now landing a No. 1 playoff seed more often than any other AL team in the simulations, though the Yankees’ pennant odds are still a tick better because of a higher baseline. (New York has a lower regular-season win forecast because of schedule differences.) Sweeney hasn’t hit (.234/.317/.355)* and the Tigers’ shortstop defensive rating, per FanGraphs, ranks 20th. It’s the most obvious blemish on what is shaping up as a pristine season in Detroit.
* These numbers were .202/.282/.303 entering Sunday, but Sweeney must have had spies watching over my shoulder. Against the Angels, he went 4-for-5 with a homer and six RBIs. That’s more like it.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 84.5, 12th)
In the playoffs: 76.9% (Last: 44.4%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 1.8%)
What must change: Lineup depth
The Padres are off to a great start, largely on the strength of a bullpen that has been off the charts. The relievers have racked up 14 saves (they’ve blown only one) and 27 holds while compiling a collective 1.73 ERA. Those numbers are both unbelievable and unsustainable. When some regression sets in, a top-heavy lineup will need to get production from spots like catcher (21st in OPS) and left field (27th) to offset the difference. We kind of knew this was how the Padres were constructed, but still — San Diego has given too many plate appearances to too many players in what we’ll call the post-productive phases of their careers.
Win average: 91.4 (Last: 84.3, 13th)
In the playoffs: 85.4% (Last: 46.8%)
Champions: 8.1% (Last: 2.5%)
What must change: First base production
Generally speaking, the more specific the issue we choose to worry about, the better off the team. For Seattle, the primary concern the past couple of years has been more wide-lens than specific: offense. For now, that problem has apparently been largely solved. The Mariners’ offense has been one of the hottest in baseball and over the past couple of weeks, with its hitters even managing to mash at T-Mobile Park. So rather than worrying about the offense, writ large, we can point out that at first base, the Rowdy Tellez–Donovan Solano combo is mostly responsible for Seattle’s .518 OPS (tied for 29th in MLB) at the position. This projected to be a major hole before the season, so the chances of self-correction are limited. Now, the stakes are higher to shore up the weak spots, since the Mariners have emerged as the early front-runner to win the AL West.
Win average: 90.8 (Last: 88.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 84.5% (Last: 68.3%)
Champions: 9.3% (Last: 6.5%)
What must change: Rotation depth chart
For a first-place team, there is plenty to worry about when it comes to the Yankees. They’ve had the best position player (Aaron Judge, by far) and arguably the best pitcher (Max Fried) in baseball. The relief staff has dealt with the struggles of demoted closer Devin Williams, but the bullpen still ranks sixth in relief ERA and with only 14% of inherited runners scoring. But the rotation has been below average (4.07 ERA and only eight quality starts) despite Fried’s great beginning. Even worse, with Gerrit Cole out for the season and Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman currently on the shelf, it’s not immediately clear how this is going to get better. This issue might really start to mushroom if and when Fried regresses from his hot start.
Win average: 90.3 (Last: 89.2, 4th)
In the playoffs: 66.2% (Last: 68.9%)
Champions: 4.1% (Last: 4.8%)
What must change: Slumping stalwarts
The Phillies’ roster was constructed on star power, not depth, and while that has worked well enough the past few years, they need the stars to produce. The “it’s still early” caveat applies, but so far, Bryce Harper hasn’t hit like Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm‘s production has gone missing, Aaron Nola just earned his first win but remains under league average (91 ERA+) and key bullpen acquisition Jordan Romano has gotten shelled. If the Phillies don’t want to lose sight of the front-running Mets in the NL East race, they’ll need their main cogs to start firing.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 79.9, 20th)
In the playoffs: 59.7% (Last: 24.6%)
Champions: 2.5% (Last: 0.6%)
What must change: Team batting average
The Giants have inserted themselves into a top-heavy NL postseason chase that they didn’t figure to be a part of when the season began. The pitching and defense has been stellar, but the offense hasn’t kept up. San Francisco ranks eighth in walks percentage but 24th in batting average. That can work in a take-and-rake general approach to offense, but the Giants are only middle of the pack in homers. Since they aren’t very athletic and rarely steal bases, this leads to uneven production. The Giants can hang in contention with a league-level batting average, but they simply don’t hit enough homers to do so if they continue to hover around .230. That puts the onus on low-average hitters such as Matt Chapman (.198), LaMonte Wade Jr. (.141, ouch) and Willy Adames (.230 and now four homers after hitting two on Sunday) to up the ante.
Win average: 87.1 (Last: 87.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 44.2% (Last: 58.4%)
Champions: 1.7% (Last: 3.0%)
What must change: Bullpen health
In what’s shaping up as a historically good NL West (save for the Rockies), little problems can quickly become big ones. For the Diamondbacks, a shiny start has lost its luster a bit as they have battled bullpen problems in both the performance and health categories. The unit scuffled badly during a 5-9 stretch, posting a 5.61 collective ERA while blowing six of 10 save opportunities. Closer A.J. Puk (elbow) is on the 60-day IL and Justin Martinez (shoulder) hit the 15-day IL after two concerning outings with diminished velocity. Both are expected to help later this season but for that to matter, the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Shelby Miller and Ryan Thompson need to step up in high-leverage spots.
Win average: 86.8(Last: 88.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 66.6% (Last: 68.7%)
Champions: 3.7% (Last: 5.4%)
What must change: Homer count
It has been a mixed bag for the Astros. Hunter Brown has been one of the game’s best pitchers and Josh Hader is having a vintage season at the back of the bullpen. The relief staff, in general, has been strong. But the lineup has been below average with a lack of power at the root of the issue. No Astro has homered more than four times and Houston ranks 21st in home run and overall slugging percentage. It’s an issue up and down the lineup but things would look a lot more promising if Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez were going deep at their usual rates.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 96.5, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 43.5% (Last: 91.1%)
Champions: 2.2% (Last: 14.4%)
What must change: IL roster
An 0-7 start threatened to sink the Braves’ season before it began. They recovered — nearly climbing to .500 at one point — but they have a lot of work to do. Hopes that the Braves can still reach their ceiling hinge on the longed-for returns of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. In the meantime, they need underperforming stalwarts such as Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Chris Sale and Raisel Iglesias to hit their stride. Atlanta can’t keep plodding along under .500 in this year’s NL while waiting for its stars to get healthy, but if the Braves can stay above water until then, they might be able to really take off. Considering what we’ve seen so far, the fact that they won’t see the Dodgers again during the regular season certainly helps.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 47.4% (Last: 48.8%)
Champions: 1.3% (Last: 2.3%)
What must change: Outfield production
The Royals’ offense, in general, has been missing, with only Bobby Witt Jr. producing all season. But the outfield ranks 29th in bWAR as a group — the continuation of a problem that hovered over the roster last season. MJ Melendez was sent to the minors to find himself. His initial results in Omaha suggest he’ll be searching for some time. Hunter Renfroe has produced less than a good-hitting pitcher. Mark Canha has helped in a big role and Drew Waters has had some nice moments. But the Royals need some stable offense from the corner outfielders, making this a must-get as the trade deadline starts to loom.
Win average: 82.9 (Last: 77.7, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 40.9% (Last: 19.0%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last: 0.5%)
What must change: Emmanuel Clase
You figured the Guardians’ bullpen would fall off a bit after last season’s off-the-charts showing. That has happened even though set-up relievers Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have been every bit as good as they were in 2024. No, the problem has been a mystifying start by Clase, who has already given up more runs (11) than he did all of last season (10). He already has won four games, matching a career high, but of course that’s not necessarily a good sign for a closer. Clase’s dominance was the biggest differentiator on last year’s team. The 2025 squad, which has been outscored by 23 runs despite a 20-14 record, needs him to approximate that performance.
Win average: 82.8 (Last: 84.1, 15th)
In the playoffs: 43.6% (Last: 45.6%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 2.5%)
What must change: Bullpen depth
Despite an elite offense, the Red Sox have hovered around .500 because of a thin bullpen. The relievers have blown as many saves (eight) as they’ve converted and only one team has seen a higher rate of inherited runners score. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been fine, but he hasn’t had enough situational help. Boston ranks in the middle of the pack with a 4.11 relief ERA and its 10 holds are tied for the fewest of any bullpen. The rotation has been solid, but it’ll need more support to remain that way.
Win average: 81.9 (Last: 87.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 38.1% (Last: 61.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 5.2%)
What must change: The offense
Even after an eight-run outburst against the division-leading Mariners on Sunday, Texas ranks 29th in run scoring. Only the Rockies have scored fewer. It’s a stunning turnaround for an offense that kept scoreboards spinning in 2023 on the way to a World Series title. Last year’s falloff was steep, and based on what we’ve seen so far, hopes for positive regression are fading. Adolis Garcia is having another down season. Marcus Semien is below replacement. And the key additions from the winter — Joc Pederson and Jake Burger — have hurt more than they’ve helped. Pederson is hitting a remarkable .094 with a .334 OPS, and Burger (.561) was sent to the minors. Not good. The Rangers’ brass has taken note: Offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker, who was with the club during its 2023 run, was fired after Sunday’s game.
Win average: 79.5 (Last: 85.1, 10th)
In the playoffs: 25.7% (Last: 52.4%)
Champions: 0.7% (Last: 2.7%)
What must change: Carlos Correa
For once, we don’t have to cite the availability of the Twins’ stars as their primary problem. That’s still an issue, too, as Royce Lewis has yet to make his season debut — but the larger problem has been the star who has stayed on the field, Correa, is off to a miserable start. He’s hitting .216 with a lone homer and a .560 OPS to begin the season, hamstringing a Twins lineup that has struggled. Everything is off, even Correa’s plate discipline, as he has walked at a rate less than half his career norm. The Twins need more to turn around than just Correa, but no one else on the roster has fallen as far below expectation as he has.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 82.9, 17th)
In the playoffs: 25.0% (Last: 39.2%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 1.6%)
What must change: Powerless stars
After the formerly punchless Royals hammered seven homers in Baltimore on Sunday, the Blue Jays sank to last in the majors with 23 homers. The power trio of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Anthony Santander and Bo Bichette have hit nine of those dingers between them — and that’s just not enough. Guerrero will be fine. Bichette has recovered most of the batting average he lost during last year’s .225 season, but he has homered only once. This is a player in his age-27 season who topped 20 homers in each season from 2021 to 2023. Finally, Santander has flailed during his first Toronto season, hitting four homers with a 67 OPS+. This can’t continue if the Jays are to contend.
Win average: 79.1 (Last: 79.9, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.4% (Last: 28.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)
What must change: The pitching
The Brewers are built to win on pitching and defense. Every year, they overperform their projections because of an organizational ability to find, or produce, quality pitchers. But so far, they just haven’t found enough of them in 2025. The overall run prevention has been off. In the first season after Willy Adames’ departure, the team defense has been more decent than elite. The rotation has received good work from Freddy Peralta, Jose Quintana and upstart Chad Patrick, but the falloff after that has been steep. Brandon Woodruff might return to the mix soon and that will certainly help. More troubling is Milwaukee’s normally airtight relief staff, which has struggled to finish games and strand inherited runners.
This all needs to turn around — and fast. With the Cubs emerging as a potential powerhouse in the NL Central, being an above-average team is no longer the bar to clear in the division. And it’s unlikely the Central’s second-place club is going to have a chance at a wild-card slot — not in this league.
Win average: 78.8 (Last: 80.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 22.3% (Last: 27.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.8%)
What must change: Home-field disadvantage
No matter what happened, this was going to be a strange season for the Rays. Playing in a minor league facility owned by a division rival was going to take some getting used to. The problem for the Rays is that they need to get used to it quickly, because of a schedule heavy on early home games. When the Rays depart for a six-game trip on June 8, they will have played nearly twice as many games in Tampa (43) as on the road (22). That means, of course, that the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule after that, which would be fine if the Rays were playing well at George M. Steinbrenner Field — but they aren’t. When the Rays return to Florida on Tuesday, they’ll be 9-13 at their temporary venue. With a lot more games in Tampa coming up, it’s an issue they need to fix fast. If they don’t, they’ll be looking at an uphill battle for playoff contention, and most of those hills will be confronted away from home.
Win average: 78.8 (Last: 75.9, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 10.6% (Last: 14.6%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.2%)
What must change: Lead protection
The Reds might be good. The pitching staff (122 ERA+) ranks third in the NL. The rotation and the bullpen have contributed even though presumed closer Alexis Diaz floundered so badly that he was sent to the minors. Emilio Pagan has been OK in Diaz’s place, but he’s better suited for set-up work. Diaz’s trouble started last season, so it’s hard to say where his trajectory is headed. Recently recalled Luis Mey has electric stuff, but he’s unproven and prone to lapses of command. However it happens, manager Terry Francona needs someone to step up to lock down the ninth because the overall pitching is contention-worthy. The lineup … well, it’s another reason why the Reds can’t afford back-of-the-bullpen inconsistency.
Win average: 77.5 (Last: 73.5, 26th)
In the playoffs: 16.1% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: The defense
This is shaping up as an exciting first season in Sacramento for the Athletics. The offense has been productive and looks legit, especially if rookie Nick Kurtz hits the ground running. The pitching is going to be more of a scramble, but what would help if the Athletics could field. They rank last or second to last in the leading defensive metrics. Only the Red Sox have committed more errors. Some teams can overwhelm opponents by favoring offense over defense at most positions, but the Athletics aren’t likely to be one of them. Key spots to shore up are second base and third base, positions that aren’t producing at the plate, either, so at the very least the Athletics could favor a glove.
Win average: 76.8 (Last: 81.0, 18th)
In the playoffs: 6.4% (Last: 33.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.7%)
What must change: Ryan Helsley
The Cardinals are perfectly mediocre, owning a run differential that has hovered around break even. Their record is a little worse than the expectation the so-so differential portends, largely because of a 4-5 record in one-run games — two of those coming in Sunday’s doubleheader against the Mets. This is not exclusively because of Helsley, but he has not been on his game so far with two blown saves in seven chances and walking nearly as many batters as he has struck out. The strikeout and walk rates are alarming, as they reflect what Helsley was early in his career before he ascended to All-Star status. If the mediocre Cardinals are going to do better than middling, they need their star closer to help them close out more than their share of close games. The kicker, though, is that if the Cardinals go into offload mode, this version of Helsley isn’t going to look nearly as alluring in the trade marketplace.
Win average: 75.7 (Last: 88.0, 7th)
In the playoffs: 11.7% (Last: 64.7%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 5.9%)
What must change: Right-handed hitting
No team has lost more from its preseason projection than Baltimore, so it’s very difficult to boil it down to one big thing. The problem with right-handed hitting could also be framed as a problem with hitting left-handed pitchers. The Orioles rank fifth with a .774 OPS against righties but are dead last against lefties (an anemic .502). Their righty hitters (Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg, Gary Sanchez, et al.) are hitting a collective .200/.261/.319. This of course comes after the Orioles moved in the left-field fence at Camden Yards over the winter. How’s that going? Opposing righty hitters have a .972 OPS there, while their Baltimore counterparts are at .586. The visitors have outhomered Baltimore’s righty swingers 20-8 at Oriole Park.
Win average: 70.5 (Last: 67.7, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 1.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Dylan Crews
The Nationals are competitive already and often fun to watch. Actual contention seems like a longshot, though, especially given the current state of their bullpen. Still, the more long-term questions the Nationals can answer in the affirmative, the better they will be able to set themselves up for a real push in 2026. At some point, infield prospect Brady House should join the big league fray. Until that happens, eyeballs remain on Crews, the touted second-year player whose MLB career has sputtered at the beginning. Crews looked lost early, going 5-for-47 with zero extra-base hits to start. Then came a two-week splurge with four homers and a 1.026 OPS over 13 outings. He’s 1-for-21 since. More than anything, Crews needs to get off the roller coaster and enjoy a nice, prolonged run of good, solid consistency.
Win average: 66.8 (Last: 73.8, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 8.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: Roster make-up
What do I mean by “roster make-up”? Remember the glory days of April 12, when L.A. was 9-5 and it seemed its floor-raising project from the winter was going to work? Since then, the Angels have a minus-65 run differential, 14 runs worse than any other team and, yes, that includes the Rockies. And also, Mike Trout is back on the injured list. The Angels are in the bottom five in OPS, ERA and defensive runs saved. This incidentally isn’t a tanking team. So how to change the roster makeup? Maybe just go young and lose big? The losing might happen anyway and, besides, what the Angels are doing now is not working.
Win average: 66.0 (Last: 74.2, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.2% (Last: 10.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: Oneil Cruz‘s defense
According to baseball-reference.com, Cruz’s offense has been nine runs better than average, once you combine his hitting (.243/.377/.505 with eight homers) and baserunning (14 steals). His defensive performance in center field is minus-9 runs, erasing all of that offensive value. His bWAR (0.5) is a product of accounting — positional value and replacement value. Cruz is now minus-12 in fielding runs over the past two seasons in center. His career figure at shortstop was minus-9. Given his speed and arm strength, wherever Cruz plays, this cannot continue to happen. For all that athletic ability and offensive output, to this point he’d have produced almost as much value as a DH.
Win average: 63.6 (Last: 62.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Sandy Alcantara‘s command
It’s great to have Alcantara back after Tommy John surgery. But so far, he has been a little tough to watch. It’s often said that command lags behind stuff for many surgery returnees, and that certainly seems to be the case for the 2022 NL Cy Young winner. His walk ratio (5.9 per nine innings) is more than double his career norm and his strikeout rate (15.8%) is the lowest of his career. Alcantara threw strikes nearly 69% of the time during the three years before he was injured; this season he’s at 62%. His velocity isn’t quite all the way back either, but he’s still averaging 97.4 mph with his fastball. He’s just not putting it where it needs to be.
Win average: 54.9 (Last: 54.1, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Fan patience
To paraphrase Timothée Chalamet, now ain’t the time for your tears, Sox fans. That was last year. The White Sox are the team nearest to me — less than two miles from my keyboard — so I get a good sampling of fan feedback as I get out and about, plus plenty from the local media. This isn’t a scientifically-informed observation, but it feels as if many are missing the point. The White Sox tore the team down to the studs — last year — and this is the aftermath. The bounce-back was never going to be immediate. This year’s team stinks, sure, but it’s playing a much better brand of baseball than it did last year. There are players on the roster now who might be around for awhile and more are on the way. The rebuild isn’t even 20% complete and another 100-plus losses is a near certainty, but things are better. They had to be. Watching a team come together required patience, but it’s better than what White Sox fans dealt with a year ago.
Win average: 44.6 (Last: 57.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Everything
The Rockies’ saves leader (Zach Agnos with two) has struck out one of the 26 batters he has faced. Their wins leader (Chase Dollander, a legitimately exciting prospect) has a 6.48 ERA. The team OPS+ is 62. Their leader in plate appearances (Ryan McMahon with 136) has an OPS of .574. Did the Rockies tear down? If so, how long have they been rebuilding? It’s really hard to make sense of the last half-decade or so of this franchise, and at this point, there seems to be no relief on the horizon. They did change hitting coaches.
With the final game of the first round of 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs completed Sunday night, there’s no rest for hockey fans. The second round begins Monday.
The first series to get rolling features the two remaining teams from the Atlantic Division, as the Florida Panthers visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Read on for a game preview with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Sunday’s game and the three stars of the first round from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 1 | 8 p.m. ET | ESPN
ESPN BET has installed the Panthers as the favorites in the series at -175, while the Maple Leafs are +150 to win the series against the defending Stanley Cup champions.
The Panthers won the regular-season series 3-1 by an aggregate score of 13-7. A major factor in those four games was the Panthers’ power play, which converted five of 11 chances (45.5%). For comparison, the Leafs’ power play converted only one of nine opportunities (11.1%).
This is the second time these clubs have met in the postseason; the other time was also the second round in 2023. Florida eliminated Toronto in five games, punctuated by an overtime win in Game 5. (Nick Cousins scored the goal.)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Steven Lorentz and Anthony Stolarz won the Stanley Cup with the 2024 Panthers. The only previous playoff series in NHL history in which three players dressed against a team with which they won a Cup during the previous season was when Los Angeles Kings teammates Wayne Gretzky, Mike Krushelnyski and Marty McSorley skated against the Edmonton Oilers in 1989.
The Panthers have won more playoff games (39) since 2021 than they did in their first 26 seasons (19). Their 39 wins and 66 games played in the postseason since 2021 lead the NHL.
Florida’s postseason goal-scoring leaderboard features current players through the top four spots: Carter Verhaeghe (28), Sam Reinhart (23), Aleksander Barkov (20), Matthew Tkachuk (20).
This is the Leafs’ ninth straight postseason appearance, which is the longest active streak in the NHL and tied for the second longest in franchise history. That other nine-year streak ended in 1967 with a Stanley Cup win.
Toronto captain Auston Matthews is tied with Darryl Sittler for seventh in franchise history in playoff goals, with 25. His next goal will push him into a tie for fifth, with Steve Thomas and George Armstrong. Wendel Clark is atop the leaderboard, with 34.
Arda’s three stars from Round 1
Rantanen had 12 points in the first round to help the Stars eliminate his former team the Avalanche. He had multiple Stanley Cup playoff firsts along the way, including the first Game 7 with a third-period hat trick (“The Rantanen Game”).
McDavid put the team on his back many times during the series against the Kings, especially early. He finished with 11 points in the series, as the Oilers sent the Kings home in the first round for the fourth straight season.
The netminder allowed two goals or fewer in four of the Caps’ five games against the Canadiens, earning a .922 save percentage.
Sunday’s score
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (2OT)
WPG wins 4-3, plays DAL in Round 2
The Blues raced out to a quick 2-0 lead in the first period — on goals by Jordan Kyrou and Mathieu Joseph — and many thought this could be another bad playoff memory for Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Though the Jets got one back in the second off the stick of Cole Perfetti, Blues center Radek Faksa scored with under a minute left in the period, giving them a 3-1 lead heading into the third.
St. Louis carried that lead into the final two minutes, when the Jets furiously rallied; Vladislav Namestnikov scored at 18:04, and Perfetti deflected in the game-tying goal with three seconds remaining. The teams fought hard through the first 36 minutes of OT, before Adam Lowry tipped Neal Pionk‘s shot from the point past Jordan Binnington for the series-clinching tally. Full recap.
0:35
Jets score tying goal in final seconds of regulation
Cole Perfetti knocks in the tying goal for the Jets with one second remaining in regulation.
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