Trump has ‘extremely high’ chance of being convicted in 2024, former US prosecutor says
The prospect of at least one conviction of Donald Trump in 2024 is “extremely high”, a former federal prosecutor has told Sky News.
Glenn Kirschner, a US attorney with 30 years of trial experience, spoke as he assessed the former president’s year ahead in court.
Mr Kirschner, a legal analyst for NBC/MSNBC News, said he believed that in at least one case, the judge and prosecution team “understand the need to punish this kind of wrongdoing with a prison term”.
Mr Trump faces 91 charges across four criminal trials. While he is not expected to face all four in 2024, some trial dates have been set. The first is 4 March for his alleged role around the January 6 insurrection.
In that prosecution in Washington DC, he faces four criminal counts related to an attempt to stay in power after the 2020 election: conspiracy to violate civil rights, conspiracy to defraud the government, the corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding and conspiracy to perpetrate that obstruction.
Glenn Kirschner told Sky News: “I think the odds of a conviction are extremely high. It’s important to recognise who the witnesses are against Donald Trump. These are not Donald Trump’s enemies or opponents, these are not angry Democrats.
“Interestingly, the people we know are likely to be on the witness list are almost exclusively Republicans. Some of them are his own former cabinet members, his former attorney-general, his former vice president. I believe the testimony we will see will come from a chorus of Republican voices. It makes it much more difficult for Donald Trump, a fellow Republican, to say ‘they’re all out to get me’.”
In 2024, Donald Trump’s court diary will intersect sharply with election campaigning. The January 6 trial is currently scheduled to begin the day before Super Tuesday – 5 March – a significant day in the race to be chosen as a party’s presidential nominee.
Super Tuesday is a date typically in February or March when the largest number of US states hold primary elections and caucuses.
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Then there is the Republican convention in July, when the nominee is selected. Depending on the speed and outcome of court proceedings, it may be that Republicans are faced with the choice of a convicted criminal as their candidate for the White House.
Election day takes place on 5 November 2024. The political picture could be shaped, largely, by the conclusions of judge and jury.
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Donald Trump has enjoyed a “courtroom bounce” in the opinion polls and surveys have put him ahead of Joe Biden in several key battleground states.
There are indications that a guilty verdict could harm him, however. In a New York Times/Siena College survey in November, around 6% of voters backing Trump in swing vote territory said they would switch to Biden upon a conviction. It could be enough to swing the presidential race.
The prosecution of a former and, potentially, future president is unprecedented. As such, no one can be wholly certain of the sentencing that would follow any conviction or its practicalities.
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On the prospect of a jail term, Mr Kirschner said: “Nobody knows if he will go to jail but given the nature of his crimes, assuming he’s convicted for essentially trying to bring an end to the peaceful transfer of presidential power, I believe the judge and prosecution team understand that if you don’t punish that dramatic wrongdoing, those democracy crimes, then you’re giving the next aspiring dictator a green light to do it all over again.
“I think both Tanya Chutkan (the Jan 6th trial judge) and Jack Smith (special counsel prosecutor) and his team understand the need to punish this kind of wrongdoing with a prison term, because that will not only hold Donald Trump accountable for what he did to the American people, but it will deter future aspiring dictators from following the Trump playbook and trying to do it all over again.”
In an effort to have the January 6 case dismissed, Donald Trump’s lawyers argue that it should be thrown out on the grounds of presidential immunity.
The presiding judge rejected the claim, prompting Trump to lodge an appeal, which is ongoing.
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At the same time, the special counsel prosecuting the January 6 case, Jack Smith, has asked the Supreme Court to clarify the position on immunity. A definitive ruling by the highest court in the land would remove doubt and reduce delay.
Donald Trump has to be present in court for any prosecution and potential diary clashes mean that some, if not most, of the criminal trials he faces are likely to be pushed past 2024.
Beyond the January 6 case, Trump’s criminal card is marked as follows:
- New York: state charges of false accounting related to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. A provisional trial date has been pencilled in for 25 March but it is almost certain that will give way to the January 6 prosecution, assuming it begins, as scheduled, on 4 March.
- Miami: federal charges of mishandling classified documents at his private home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, of making false statements and conspiring to obstruct justice. A trial date has been set for 20 May but that could well be delayed if the January 6 case goes ahead as scheduled, given that trial and sentencing could push it into May or beyond.
- Fulton County, Georgia: Trump is accused, along with others, of a criminal conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2020 election. He was named among 19 defendants originally, but that number has since been reduced as some of Trump’s co-accused have taken plea deals and could testify against him. The prosecution has asked the judge for a trial date of 5 August.
As well as his criminal exposure, Donald Trump already has civil court commitments. A judge in a civil fraud trial is due to decide early in 2024 what punishment Trump should face for lying about his net worth to secure cheap loans and insurance.
In January, he faces a civil trial to decide how much in damages he should pay to writer E Jean Carroll for defamation. He has already been ordered to pay her $5m in damages after a jury found him liable for sexually abusing Ms Carroll in a New York department store.
Barred from state ballots
As well as his legal troubles, the former president has seen two US states disqualify him from their ballot for the 2024 presidential primary election.
Maine and Colorado both made the decision in December over the Capitol riots.
In a 34-page decision, Maine secretary of state Shenna Bellows ruled that Trump incited an insurrection when he spread false claims about voter fraud in the 2020 election and urged his supporters to march on the Capitol.
Earlier in the month, Colorado’s Supreme Court ruled that he was ineligible for the US presidency under the constitution’s insurrection clause.
Trump is expected to appeal both rulings, with the final decision likely to go all the way to the Supreme Court.
Fears of a US-EU trade war have been reignited after Europe refused to back down in the face of fresh threats from Donald Trump.
The word tariff has dominated much of the US president’s second term, and he has repeatedly and freely threatened countries with them.
Money blog: Trump sends message to UK on energy bills
This included the so-called “liberation day” last month, where he unleashed tariffs on many of his trade partners.
On Friday, after a period of relative calm which has included striking a deal with the UK, he threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU after claiming trade talks with Brussels were “going nowhere”.
The US president has repeatedly taken issue with the EU, going as far as to claim it was created to rip the US off.
However, in the face of the latest hostile rhetoric from Mr Trump’s social media account, the European Commission – which oversees trade for the 27-country bloc – has refused to back down.
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said: “EU-US trade is unmatched and must be guided by mutual respect, not threats.
“We stand ready to defend our interests.”
Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday
Fellow EU leaders and ministers have also held the line after Mr Trump’s comments.
Polish deputy economy minister Michal Baranowski said the tariffs appeared to be a negotiating ploy, with Dutch deputy prime minister Dick Schoof said tariffs “can go up and down”.
French trade minister Laurent Saint-Martin said the latest threats did nothing to help trade talks.
He stressed “de-escalation” was one of the EU’s main aims but warned: “We are ready to respond.”
Mr Sefcovic spoke with US trade representative Jamieson Greer and commerce secretary Howard Lutnick after Mr Trump’s comments.
Mr Trump has previously backed down on a tit-for-tat trade war with China, which saw tariffs soar above 100%.
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Sticking points
Talks between the US and EU have stumbled.
In the past week, Washington sent a list of demands to Brussels – including adopting US food safety standards and removing national digital services taxes, people familiar with the talks told Reuters news agency.
In response, the EU reportedly offered a mutually beneficial deal that could include the bloc potentially buying more liquefied natural gas and soybeans from the US, as well as cooperation on issues such as steel overcapacity, which both sides blame on China.
Stocks tumble as Trump grumbles
Major stock indices tumbled after Mr Trump’s comments, which came as he also threatened to slap US tech giant Apple with a 25% tariff.
The president is adamant that he wants the company’s iPhones to be built in America.
The vast majority of its phones are made in China, and the company has also shifted some production to India.
Shares of Apple ended 3% lower and the dollar sank 1% versus the Japanese yen and the euro rose 0.8% against the dollar.
In the dozens of framed images and newspaper clippings covering the walls of his office in downtown New York City, Al Sharpton is pictured alongside presidents and leading protests.
He has spent decades campaigning and is perhaps the most famous civil rights activist in the US today.
Many of those clippings on the wall relate to one moment in May 2020 – the murder of George Floyd.
George Floyd was killed while under arrest in Minneapolis in May 2020
Speaking to Sky News ahead of the five-year anniversary of that moment, Mr Sharpton remembered the combination of “humiliation and deep anger” he felt seeing the footage of Mr Floyd’s death that swept the world.
“The more I watched, the more angry I felt,” he said.
Mr Floyd was murdered in Minneapolis by Derek Chauvin, a 44-year-old white police officer.
Mr Floyd had been arrested after a store clerk reported he had made a purchase using counterfeit money.
Chauvin knelt on Mr Floyd’s neck for over nine minutes, while he was handcuffed and lying face down in the street.
Chauvin pressed his knee on Mr Floyd’s neck for more than nine minutes, as the victim repeatedly said ‘I can’t breathe’. Pic: AP
‘A seismic moment’
For Mr Sharpton, who has marched with countless other families, this felt different because it was “graphic and unnecessary”.
“What kind of person would hear somebody begging for their life and ignore them?” he said.
“I had no idea this would become a seismic moment,” he continued.
“I think people would accuse civil rights leaders, activists like me of being opportunistic, but we don’t know if one call from the next one is going to be big, all we know is we have to answer to the call.”
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Mr Floyd’s death took place during Donald Trump’s first term in the White House.
During Trump’s second term, his administration has moved to repeal federal oversight plans for the Minneapolis Police Department – a move originally supported by Joe Biden’s administration.
Mr Sharpton believes Mr Trump and the Department of Justice have purposely timed this for the 5th Anniversary of Mr Floyd’s Death.
“It’s pouring salt on the wounds of those that were killed, and those that fought,” he said.
“I think Donald Trump and his administration is actively trying to reverse and revoke changes and progress made with policing based on the movement we created after George Floyd’s death, worldwide.”
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Mr Sharpton still supports George Floyd’s family and will be with them this weekend in Houston, Texas, where many of them will mark the anniversary.
He said the legacy of Mr Floyd’s death is still being written.
Evoking the civil rights movement of the 1960s he said: “The challenge is we must turn those moments into permanent movements, it took nine years from 1955 to 1964 for Dr [Martin Luther] King in that movement to get a Civil Rights Act after Rosa Parks sat in the front of a bus in Montgomery.
“We’re five years out of George Floyd, we’ve got to change the laws.
“We can do it in under nine years, but we can’t do it if we take our eye off the prize.”
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