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Rishi Sunak himself declared that 2024 will be an election year – at the least discreet location possible: a Christmas party for political journalists.

This year that election will be looming in the background of every issue, whether politicians intend it to or not.

The Conservatives – who were last ahead in the polls more than two years ago – are trying to defy the odds to win a historic fifth term in office in the teeth of a cost-of-living squeeze.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is trying to convince voters that his party has changed after their worst result in more than 80 years.

The route to a Starmer victory would need to run through Scotland – where Labour are increasingly confident of winning seats from the SNP.

And the Liberal Democrats, decimated by their coalition with the Conservatives from 2010-2015, could play a key role in ousting them in their former heartlands.

Sunak has another challenge: the Reform party, whose support will be tested in by-elections looming in the coming weeks in heavily Brexit-supporting seats. They can chip away at the Conservative vote in key seats.

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Sunak and Starmer’s New Year’s messages

All of these dynamics help to explain why the government is celebrating its progress towards one of Sunak’s five priorities set out a year ago – to “stop the boats”.

He initially promised to “pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed”.

But it has been received as stopping crossings altogether, not least because Sunak keeps saying it and standing in front of the slogan which simply reads “stop the boats”.

Like “get Brexit done”, it’s an incredibly complex policy boiled down to three words – and it’s by no means clear ministers will come close to achieving it.

The number of migrants crossing the Channel is going in the right direction.

The 2023 total was 29,432, a drop of 36% on the previous year when it reached a record high of 45,477. But it’s still the second-highest number on record.

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‘When will you stop the boats?’

A new law was indeed passed – the Illegal Migration Act – but amid loud criticism from within the party, and the Rwanda policy was eventually ruled unlawful by the UK’s highest court.

Downing Street insists the fall in migrant crossings is down to government policies such as the returns agreement with Albania, which has seen the numbers of Albanians crossing the Channel plummet.

The Immigration Services Union, representing border staff, is planning for a rise in numbers this year. Many come from the world’s most unstable places – such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Syria.

How much will all of this count for in an election?

Small boats are a key dividing line with Labour, who oppose the Rwanda policy, which the prime minister is still determined to get off the ground in the coming months – via another law.

More voters tell pollsters that while they agree with Rwanda, most believe it is unworkable. Labour is the party currently more trusted on immigration.

Immigration polls well below the NHS and cost of living in terms of issues voters say are important for them, says Joe Twyman of Deltapoll.

“Immigration is by no means strong ground for the Conservatives to compete on,” he told Sky News.

“There are a lot of people out there who stopped voting Conservative because their mortgage rates went up and energy bills soared, but there are very few who will say ‘I’m back voting Conservative because of small boats’.”

The start of the year will see more announcements on cutting numbers of both irregular and legal migration – with new rules to prevent international students and health and care workers bringing family members with them to the UK.

But there are now just months to go to demonstrate success – or at least the road to it, and plenty of risks along the way.

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Starmer ‘playing whack-a-mole’ to keep US on side – but will it be enough?

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Starmer 'playing whack-a-mole' to keep US on side - but will it be enough?

Keir Starmer flies out of South Africa this evening with two massive issues on his agenda – a potentially manifesto-busting budget and, as it stands, an unacceptable Ukrainian peace deal.

As he prepared to depart for London, the prime minister confirmed he was dispatching national security adviser Jonathan Powell to Geneva for talks with US officials, other European security advisers and Ukrainian representatives – as Europe and Ukraine scramble to reinsert themselves into a plan drawn up between Washington and Moscow.

The prime minister said on Saturday there was “more to do on the plan” in the coming days and the focus now was to try to make progress in Geneva.

Follow the latest: European leaders raise concerns over plan for Ukraine

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PM: ‘More to do’ on US Ukraine peace plan

After speaking on the phone to Donald Trump, Downing Street said the pair agreed their teams would work together on the US leader’s proposal in the Swiss city on Sunday.

Starmer also reiterated Britain’s “steadfast support for Ukraine” in a call with President Zelenskyy – as allies try to swing this deal more in Ukraine‘s favour, with the UK and other international leaders clear on their concerns to limit the size of the Ukrainian army and give up territory to Russia.

But in his remarks on camera, the prime minister was at pains to neither criticise the current deal nor President Trump.

One figure told me that the PM wants to act as a bridge between the Europeans and the US and has been playing a “game of whack-a-mole” over the past couple of days in an effort to keep others from publicly saying the deal is unacceptable for fear it would only serve to irritate President Trump and hurt Ukraine.

File pic: Reuters
Image:
File pic: Reuters

Earlier, the prime minister said he would talk to his US counterpart in the coming days.

“I’m absolutely clear in my mind that President Trump wants a just and lasting peace, not just from the actions he’s taken towards that end, but also from the private discussions that I’ve had with him,” Mr Starmer said.

“So I know what he’s trying to achieve. We all want to achieve that.”

But there will be a question about what the alternative options are if allies cannot improve this deal by President Trump’s Thursday deadline.

The frontline in eastern Ukraine
Image:
The frontline in eastern Ukraine

The first option is to try to improve it and also slow down the process and buy more time, but if that fails, are allies looking at scenarios where they try to shore up Ukraine’s war efforts without the US support?

The prime minister responded by talking about point five in the 28-point plan, in which Ukraine is offered security guarantees from the US.

Read more:
Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan in full
Analysis: We could all pay if Europe doesn’t step up
Starmer addresses G20 summit – but Trump boycotts talks

“That fortifies in me the belief that what we’re all trying to achieve here is a just and lasting peace will only be just as lasting if there are security guarantees,” Mr Starmer said.

“And if we bear in mind that matters for Ukraine are always to be determined by Ukraine.”

The next 24 hours will be critical as the Europeans, Ukraine and other allies try to improve this deal.

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Starmer refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises in budget

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Starmer refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises in budget

The prime minister has refused to rule out manifesto-breaking tax hikes in next week’s budget while speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby.

Sir Keir Starmer was interviewed by Rigby while the pair were in South Africa for a meeting of the G20 group of nations.

Despite the government last year indicating it was not going to raise more taxes, it appears that Wednesday’s fiscal event will involve substantial increases in levies.

The 2024 Labour manifesto said: “We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible.

“Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”

At the start of their interview, the prime minister was asked by Rigby if it was important for politicians to “stick to their word”.

Sir Keir said: “Yes, it is important that politicians stick to their word.

More on Budget 2025

“They have to make decisions against a political backdrop. And, we’ve also got big decisions to make in the budget that’s coming in just a few days time.”

This caveat matches the expectations that a range of taxes are going to be increased so the government can keep its spending pledges and increase its fiscal headroom amid worsening economic headwinds.

There was chaos last week after the increase in income tax that many had expected to be on the way was revealed to no longer be on the cards.

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Why has chancellor U-turned on income tax rises?

Asked specifically on the manifesto commitment on tax, Sir Keir told Rigby that decisions will be made “against a very difficult backdrop”.

In total, the prime minister refused 12 times to rule out tax rises.

He added it was “important to take the right decisions for our country”.

Rigby pointed out in the lead-up to the 2024 Budget, the prime minister was more unequivocal, saying income tax, national insurance and VAT would not all go up.

The prime minister declined to make the same promise, saying the decisions on tax will be announced on Wednesday.

Read more:
Did Reeves pull of something extraordinary?
Government borrowing higher than expected
Will energy bills be made cheaper?

However, Sir Keir said the budget will be guided by “principles”, including “fairness”.

The prime minister said the three areas he is “bearing down on” are the NHS, cutting national debt and dealing with the cost of living crisis.

One tax rise that has not been ruled out is what is known as a “stealth tax rise” of freezing income tax thresholds.

Rigby highlighted that in last year’s budget, Rachel Reeves said freezing thresholds will “hurt working people” – and asked the prime minister if he agreed.

šŸ‘‰ Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app šŸ‘ˆ

Sir Keir said: “We are going to set out our decisions.

“We will have absolutely in mind that the cost of living is the number one issue for people across the country.”

Pushed again, if working people will have their taxes increased, the prime minister instead mentioned he has people who are “struggling with the cost of living” in mind when making decisions.

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Ex-Coinbase lawyer announces run for New York Attorney General, citing crypto policy

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Ex-Coinbase lawyer announces run for New York Attorney General, citing crypto policy

Khurram Dara, a former policy lawyer at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, officially launched his campaign for New York State Attorney General.

In a Friday notice, Dara cited his ā€œregulatory and policy experience, particularly in the crypto and fintech spaceā€ among his reasons to try to unseat Attorney General Letitia James in 2026.

The former Coinbase lawyer had been hinting since August at potential plans to run for office, claiming that James had engaged in ā€œlawfareā€ against the crypto industry in New York.

Law, Politics, New York, Elections
Source: Khurram Dara

Until July, Dara was the regulatory and policy principal at Bain Capital Crypto, the digital asset arm of the investment company. According to his LinkedIn profile, he worked as Coinbase’s policy counsel from June 2022 to January 2023 and was previously employed at the crypto companies Fluidity and Airswap.

James, who took office in 2019, has faced criticism from many in the crypto industry for filing lawsuits against companies on behalf of affected New Yorkers, including Genesis, KuCoin and NovaTech. Whoever assumes the role of New York’s attorney general would have significant discretion over whether to file charges against crypto companies.

Related: New York AG urges Congress to bolster protections in crypto bills

Dara, who said he plans to run as a Republican, also echoed Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s recent winning campaign, citing New Yorkers’ concerns about the cost of living and affordability. Cointelegraph reached out to Dara for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

The lawyer who represented XRP holders is also running for office again

As the deadline approached for candidates for various offices to announce their runs, former Massachusetts senatorial candidate John Deaton said he would try to unseat a Democrat again.Ā 

Deaton ran against Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2024, losing by about 700,000 votes. On Nov. 10, however, he announced he would run as a Republican again, attempting to unseat Senator Ed Markey in 2026.