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Are Israel and Hezbollah heading for war?

An Israeli drone strike killing a Hamas operative in Hezbollah’s urban stronghold certainly gives that impression.

And we are hearing more and more from Israeli officials and their mouthpieces in the Western media suggesting a bigger war is increasingly likely.

The 7 October attacks changed the rules for Israel, we are being told. The decades-long policy of living with threats and managing them has ended in the worst massacre of Jews since World War II. Something has to give.

So, Israel must deal with its two closest enemies, Hamas to the south and Hezbollah to the north, or so goes the logic.

We heard that message from the early days of this war. Yoav Gallant, Israel’s minister for defence, reportedly advocated attacking both, but was said to be talked out of it by more moderate ministers and the Americans.

How much of all this is bluster, chutzpah and how much calculated tactics is not clear.

The Beirut airstrike achieved a number of objectives. It killed a sworn foe and sent a message to others, no one is safe. Israel is battling to restore the power of its deterrence and the fear of its enemies after the bloody debacle of 7 October.

FILE - In this Oct. 27, 2015 file photograph, Hezbollah fighters stand atop a truck mounted with mock rockets as supporters chant slogans during a rally to mark the 13th day of the Shiite mourning period of Muharram, in Nabatiyeh, Lebanon. Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution initially inspired both Islamic militants and Islamists across the Mideast. They saw the revolution as the starting gun in a competition to push out the strongman Arab nationalism that had taken hold across the Middle East. Howev
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Hezbollah fighters stand atop a truck. Pic: AP

It also sent a clear message to Hezbollah. For months the Shia militia organisation has been threatening Israel and attacking it over the border but never going all out. “You want to dance?” Israel is saying to its leadership, “well we can dance and we are serious about it”.

The bellicose rhetoric from officials and friendly journalists serves the same purpose. It warns Hezbollah from starting anything it may come to regret.

But it is important to see beyond the bluster. Some key fundamentals remain unchanged.

Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 missiles hidden in the hills of southern Lebanon pointing at Israel. They are primarily for Iran’s benefit, most analysts agree.

The ayatollahs paid for them and supplied them as insurance against attack in another war, when Israel, possibly with American backing, strikes Iran’s nuclear weapons project. Tehran will not want to play that card prematurely whatever Israel’s provocations in the skies over Beirut.

An Israeli soldier sets up cameras at their new position in front of a Hezbollah flag, near the Lebanese southern border village of Mays al-Jabal, Lebanon, Thursday, Dec. 13, 2018. As Israeli excavators dig into the rocky ground, Lebanese across the frontier gather to watch what Israel calls the Northern Shield operation aimed at destroying attack tunnels built by Hezbollah. But Lebanese soldiers in new camouflaged posts, behind sandbags, or inside abandoned homes underscore the real anxiety tha
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An Israeli soldier and a Hezbollah flag. Pic: AP

Hezbollah also knows a war would be ruinous for a Lebanon already on its knees economically. It would do nothing to improve the organisation’s political standing.

So if Iran and Hezbollah do not want outright war with Israel, does Israel?

A war with Hezbollah would be devastating for Israel too. Their conflict in 2006 was destructive enough but its enemies now have 10 times as many missiles and they are thought to be more advanced than the arsenal let loose back then. The range of Hezbollah’s rockets is thought to stretch across Israel now and with improved targeting technology. Nowhere would be safe from attack.

Read more:
Who was the deputy Hamas leader killed in Beirut explosion?
Thousands of Israeli soldiers moved out of Gaza

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Senior Hamas official killed in explosion

When Israel went into Lebanon on the ground in 2006 its military’s performance was deemed lacklustre by military experts. How much better could it expect to fare now, its resources stretched by a war on its southern border that is three months old?

Israel would far rather Hezbollah is weakened through diplomatic pressure. It is calling on the international community to force Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, as required under agreements in 2006. Israel hopes predictions of war will galvanise diplomacy towards achieving that aim.

So there are good reasons why war is not as likely as it looks. But it may still come. Israel is still working out its new posture post-7 October. Hawks may still win the day and lead their country into a far wider conflict in the belief that is the only way to keep Israel safe.

And mistakes, miscalculation and escalation could start another war in the Middle East as they have in the past. The danger of this war expanding remains very real.

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Jair Bolsonaro: Brazil’s former president sentenced to 27 years in jail for attempted coup

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Jair Bolsonaro: Brazil's former president sentenced to 27 years in jail for attempted coup

Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup to stay in power after his 2022 election defeat.

The far-right politician, who ruled Brazil between 2019 and 2022, is currently under house arrest in the capital, Brasilia.

A panel of five Supreme Court justices handed down the sentence several hours after they found the 70-year-old guilty on five counts.

The counts were trying to stage a coup, being part of an armed criminal organisation, attempting violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, being implicated in violence, and posing a serious threat to the state’s assets and listed heritage.

Bolsonaro‘s lawyers have said they will appeal the verdict.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

The ruling will deepen political divisions in Brazil and is also likely to prompt a backlash from the United States government – with Donald Trump already sharing his thoughts on the vote.

President Trump, an ally of Bolsonaro, has said he was surprised and “very unhappy” with the decision.

More on Brazil

Speaking to reporters outside the White House, he said he always found Bolsonaro “outstanding” and said the conviction is “very bad for Brazil”.

Mr Trump previously called the case a “witch hunt”, slapped Brazil with tariff hikes, and revoked US visas for most members of Brazil’s high court.

Bolsonaro is the first former Brazilian president to be convicted of attempting a coup.

He has not attended the court proceedings, and on Thursday, he was seen at the garage of his property, but did not talk to the media.

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Justice Carmen Lucia. Pic: AP
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Justice Carmen Lucia. Pic: AP

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has been overseeing the case, said on Tuesday that Bolsonaro was the leader of a coup plot and of a criminal organisation, and voted in favour of convicting him. Justices Flavio Dino, Carmen Lucia, and Cristiano Zanin sided with Justice Moraes in the trial.

On Wednesday, another justice, Luiz Fux, disagreed and voted to acquit the ex-president of all charges.

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Justice Lucia said she was convinced by the evidence the attorney general’s office put forward against Bolsonaro, saying: “He is the instigator, the leader of an organisation that orchestrated every possible move to maintain or seize power.”

Bolsonaro had been previously banned from running for office until 2030 in a different case.

He is expected to choose an heir who is likely to challenge President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva next year.

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FBI releases video of Charlie Kirk shooting suspect on roof of building before he vanished

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FBI releases video of Charlie Kirk shooting suspect on roof of building before he vanished

The FBI and officials have released new video and images of a “person of interest” in connection with the shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, as the manhunt continues.

At a news conference on Friday, Utah Governor Spencer Cox showed video footage showing the suspect walking on the roof of the building from where the fatal shot was fired. He is then seen climbing down and heading toward a wooded area, where police say he abandoned his rifle.

Additional images released by police show the suspect wearing a hat, sunglasses, and a backpack.

Investigators have conducted nearly 200 interviews related to the case as 20 law enforcement partners are working on the investigation, Governor Cox said.

Prosecutors will seek the death penalty against the attacker, he said.

Follow the latest updates on Charlie Kirk’s killing

Authorities have released additional images of the attacker. Pic: Utah Public Safety
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Authorities have released additional images of the attacker. Pic: Utah Public Safety

Earlier, authorities said the shooter was thought to have jumped off a roof and fled into a neighbourhood after firing one shot.

They also said the suspect was a male who “appears to be of college age” and blended in on the Utah Valley University campus in Orem, where Mr Kirk was killed.

Mr Kirk, a 31-year-old right-wing influencer, was fatally shot in the neck on Wednesday afternoon while speaking to university students at an event. He died in hospital after being shot.

Charlie Kirk hands out hats before speaking at Utah Valley University where he was later fatally shot. Pic: AP
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Charlie Kirk hands out hats before speaking at Utah Valley University where he was later fatally shot. Pic: AP

The rifle suspected of being used in the shooting has been found.

In a briefing on Thursday, FBI agent Robert Bohls said: “I can tell you that we have recovered what we believe is the weapon that was used in yesterday’s shooting… is a high-powered bolt action rifle.

“That rifle was recovered in a wooded area where the shooter had fled. The FBI laboratory will be analysing this weapon.”

Investigators have collected a footwear impression, a palm print, and forearm imprints for analysis.

Authorities have released additional images of the attacker. Pic: Utah Public Safety
Image:
Authorities have released additional images of the attacker. Pic: Utah Public Safety

Read more:
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Moment gunshot heard at university event – Watch

The father-of-two was the chief executive and co-founder of Turning Point USA, a prominent organisation that engages conservative youth on school campuses.

He had millions of followers across social media.

Mr Kirk and Turning Point USA played a key role in driving youth support for Mr Trump in last November’s presidential election. His events at college campuses nationwide typically drew large crowds.

Many people listened both in person and online to Mr Kirk, as he advocated for conservatism among younger generations and became a leading voice in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

President Donald Trump paid tribute to Mr Kirk while on stage at a 9/11 memorial event in Virginia, saying he would be awarding him the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Authorities have released additional images of the attacker. Pic: Utah Public Safety
Image:
Authorities have released additional images of the attacker. Pic: Utah Public Safety

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“Before we begin, let me express the horror and grief so many Americans at the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk have felt,” Mr Trump said.

“Charlie was a giant of his generation, a champion of liberty and an inspiration to millions and millions of people. Our prayers are with his wonderful wife, Erika, and his beautiful children.”

He later added the FBI was making “big progress” in finding the shooter and he has “an indication” of the motive, but declined to expand.

“He’s an animal, total animal, hopefully they’ll have him and they’ll get him.”

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Trump has ‘heated phone call’ with Netanyahu over strike targeting Hamas in Qatar

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Trump has 'heated phone call' with Netanyahu over strike targeting Hamas in Qatar

Donald Trump had a heated phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his military targeted Hamas inside Qatar, according to a report.

The American president told Mr Netanyahu on Tuesday that the decision to strike inside the US ally’s territory was not wise, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior administration officials.

The Israeli prime minister responded by saying he had a brief window to launch the airstrike and took the opportunity, according to the newspaper.

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Anger over Israeli strikes on Qatar

A second call between the two leaders later that day was cordial, with Mr Trump asking Mr Netanyahu if the attack had been successful, the publication added.

Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas with the attack in the Qatari capital Doha on Tuesday.

Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.

The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been hosting and mediating in negotiations which are trying to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.

On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu warned Qatar to either expel Hamas officials or “bring them to justice. Because if you don’t, we will”.

Qatar has hit back at him, saying his comments about the Gulf nation hosting a Hamas office were “reckless”.

Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters

Meanwhile, the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, has said that if Israel failed to kill Hamas leaders on Tuesday, it would succeed next time.

“We have put terrorists on notice, wherever they may be… we’re going to pursue them, and we’re going to destroy those who will destroy us,” he said.

The airstrike took place shortly after Hamas claimed responsibility for Monday’s shooting at a bus stop on the outskirts of Jerusalem that killed six people.

Read more:
Analysis: Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line

In another development, Sir Keir Starmer has had talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Downing Street, with Mr Herzog saying they argued during a “tough meeting”.

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PM meets Israeli president

PM condemns Israeli action

The prime minister has condemned the Israeli attack in Qatar, and raised the matter with the president, saying it was “completely unacceptable”.

“He said the strikes were a flagrant violation of a key partner’s sovereignty and do nothing to secure the peace we all desperately want to see,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.

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Israel has been angered by Britain’s plans to join several other Western countries, including France and Canada, in recognising a Palestinian state later this month – unless Israel meets conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza.

“Things were said that were tough and strong, and clearly we can argue, because when allies meet, they can argue. We are both democracies,” Mr Herzog said at an event at Chatham House.

He also proposed offering a “fact-finding mission” to Israel, “sitting with us and studying the situation in Gaza on the humanitarian level”.

“Because we have full answers, and we are fully transparent,” he said.

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