Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say
A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Copper prices are set to soar more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy.
Rising demand driven by the green energy transition and a likely decline in the U.S. dollar in the second half of 2024 will push copper prices higher, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit.
Markets are banking on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates this year which will weaken the dollar and in turn make the greenback-priced copper more attractive to foreign buyers.
“The positive view for copper is more on macro factors,” Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao, told CNBC, citing likely Fed rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Additionally, at the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, a move that Citibank says “would be extremely bullish for copper.”
In a December report, the investment bank forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by extra 4.2 million tons by 2030.
This would potentially push copper prices to $15,000 a ton in 2025, the report added, way higher than the record peak of $10,730 per ton scaled in March last year.
“This assumes a very soft landing in the U.S. and Europe, an earlier global growth recovery, significant China easing,” Citi analysts said, while also emphasizing on continued investments in the energy transition sector.
A growing economy tends to boost demand for copper, which is used in electrical equipment and industrial machinery. The metal’s demand is considered a proxy for economic health.
Low supply, high demand
Copper on the London Metal Exchange was last trading at $8,559 a ton.
The base metal is a linchpin in the energy transition ecosystem, and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines.
Copper prices in the past year
Other analysts see a bullish run for copper due to mining disruptions, with Goldman Sachs expecting a deficit of over half a million tons in 2024.
Last November, First Quantum Minerals halted production at the Cobre Panamá, one of the world’s largest copper mines, following a Supreme Court ruling and nationwide protests over environmental concerns. Anglo American, a major producer, said it would cut copper output in 2024 and 2025 as it seeks to cut costs.
“The supply cuts reinforce our view that the copper market is entering a period of much clearer tightening,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, who see copper prices hitting $10,000 per ton within the year, and much higher in 2025.
The winners of the copper rush will be mainly Chile and Peru, BMI estimates. Both countries have large reserves of green transition minerals such as lithium and copper that are poised to benefit from increased investment and higher export demand. Chile holds around 21% of global copper reserves.
“Our confidence that copper substantially re-rates into 2025 [of $15,000 per ton average] is now substantially higher,” Goldman said.
Lower supply also means that new copper smelters coming online will have a shortage of concentrates to work with, said S&P Global’s Senior Copper Analyst Wang Ruilin.
Copper ores are extracted from the earth and then converted into copper concentrates. From there they are sent to smelters to be purified into refined copper, which sets the benchmark LME price.
A worker monitors a process at the Codelco Ventanas copper smelter in Ventanas, Chile, January 7, 2015.
Rodrigo Garrido | Reuters
“Copper smelters will see a supply shortage of concentrate starting in 2024, and the forecast deficits in the concentrate market is expected to deepen in 2025–27,” she told CNBC via email.
On today’s fact-checking episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got a showdown brewing between California Governor Gavin Newsom and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, an updated 650 hp Kia EV6 GT that’s ready to take on the world, and some sweet deals on battery-powered goodies.
We’ve also got new electric buses at UCLA that are powered by inductive current in the road itself, and a massive new solar project on a site more famous for coal than clean. All this and a little bit of fact-checking on some fresh musky nonsense – enjoy!
Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 52% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday sale, now through November 28, and be sure to use promo code BLUETTI5OFF for 5% off all power stations site wide. Learn more at this link.
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Read more: E-quipment highlight | Palfinger FLS 25 eDRIVE truck mounted forklift.
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![Dodge Charger EV is even cheaper to finance than the gas model with 0% APR [Update]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/08/Dodge-Charger-EV-prices-1.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
The world’s first electric muscle car is finally here, and Dodge is already sweetening the deal for buyers. The Dodge Charger Daytona EV is launching with 0% APR, making it even cheaper to finance than the outgoing gas-powered model. Lease prices for the electric Charger start as low as $549 per month, but the Hellcat-like Scat Pack model may be an even better deal.
Dodge Charger EV launches with 0% APR offer
The first all-electric Dodge Charger has arrived, and surprisingly, it’s already becoming more affordable. In March, Dodge unveiled the Charger Daytona EV, kicking off “the next generation of Dodge muscle.”
According to Dodge brand CEO Tim Kuniskis, the electric Charger “delivers Hellcat Redeye levels of performance.” That’s for the Scat Pack model, which comes with a Direct Connection Stage 2 upgrade kit straight from the factory.
The upgrade delivers up to 670 hp and 627 lb-ft of torque for a 0 to 60 mph sprint in just 3.3 seconds. It can also cover a quarter mile in around 11.5 seconds.
In comparison, the 807 hp Dodge Charger SRT Redeye Jailbreak edition, powered by a Supercharged 6.2L HEMI SRT V8 engine, takes 3.6 seconds to get from 0 to 60 mph.
With a Stage 1 upgrade, the base R/T trim has up to 456 hp and 404 lb-ft of torque, good for a 0 to 60 mph time in 4.7 seconds.
Dodge opened orders for the 2024 Charger Daytona EV in September, starting at $59,995. The High-performance Scat Pack trim starts at $73,190.
According to a new dealer note viewed by online auto research firm CarsDirect, all 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona EV models are now eligible for 0% APR financing for up to 72 months.
| 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona EV trim | Horsepower | 0 to 60 mph time | Starting price |
| Dodge Charger Daytona R/T | 496 hp | 4.7 seconds | $59,995 |
| Dodge Charger Daytona Scat Pack | 670 hp | 3.3 seconds | $73,190 |
The offer makes the electric Dodge charger even cheaper to finance than the outgoing 2023 Dodge Charger at 5.9% APR for the same 72 months. However, this is an individual offer and cannot be combined with other deals. Based on CarsDirect analysis, the 0% APR offer is limited to the Northeast, Southern, and Central US regions.
Dodge is also offering a $1,000 loyalty bonus for Stellantis (Jeep, Dodge, Ram, Chrysler) lessees that trade in for the electric Charger.
Update 11/26/24: The 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona EV launches with lease prices starting at $549 for 36 months. With $4,999 due at signing, the effective rate is $688 per month (10,000 miles per year).
Although it may not seem cheap, it’s a pretty good deal for a $60,000 electric muscle car. According to CarsDirect analysis, the outgoing Challenger R/T has an effective cost of at least $853 per month. And that’s with an MSRP of just $43,235. The EV model is nearly $20,000 more on paper but significantly less to lease than the aging 2023 model.
Meanwhile, the Scat Pack model may be an even better deal. With a lease money factor as low as 0.00006 on a 24-month lease, the Scat Pack trim is surprisingly lower than the lease rate of 0.00027 for the base R/T model.
It also has a higher residual value. On a 24-month lease, the Scat Pack trim has a 59% residual compared to the R/T’s 54%. With both trims eligible for a $7,500 lease incentive, the high-performance model could be an even better deal.
With the $7,500 EV tax credit incentive, eligible customers can save up to $8,500 on the 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona EV. You may want to act fast, as these deals expire on December 2, 2024.
Jeep, another Stellantis brand, launched lease prices at just $599 per month for its first luxury electric SUV last week, the Wagoneer S. Jeep’s electric Wagoneer is also available with 0% financing.
Ready to check out the world’s first electric muscle car for yourself? We can help you get started today. You use our link to find deals on 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona models at a dealer near you.
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During the first three quarters of 2024, renewables increased their output by almost 9% year-over-year, and solar is still leading the charge, reports the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Solar’s massive growth
According to the EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report, which includes data through September 2024, solar power generation (including both utility-scale and rooftop installations) shot up by 25.9% compared to the first nine months of 2023.
Utility-scale solar grew even faster – up 30.1% – while small-scale solar (mostly rooftop) increased by 16.2%. Combined, solar contributed more than 7% of the total electricity generated in the US so far this year.
Zooming in on September, utility-scale solar generation grew by a whopping 29% compared to September 2023, and rooftop solar climbed by 14.2%. Combined, solar generated 7.5% of the nation’s electricity that month.
Small-scale solar made up nearly 30% of all solar generation from January to September and provided 2% of the country’s electricity. Interestingly, small-scale solar is now producing almost double the electricity of utility-scale biomass, and over five times that of either geothermal or petroleum-based power.
Wind and renewables mix
Wind power also saw strong growth so far this year. From January to September, wind output was up 6.6% compared to last year. Wind still holds the top spot among renewables, making up 9.9% of US electricity generation in the first nine months of 2024.
The combined contribution of wind and solar provided 17% of the US’s electricity for the first three-quarters of 2024. Altogether, renewables – including wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal – supplied 24% of US electricity in that period, compared to 22.8% during the same time last year.
The numbers show that renewables are growing much faster than traditional energy sources. For example, in the first nine months of 2024, renewables grew by 8.6%, which is more than double the growth rate of natural gas (4.1%) and almost seven times that of nuclear (1.3%). Even in September alone, renewable power generation was up 7.9% compared to September 2023, making up 21.3% of total electricity generation that month.
Other notable trends
From January to September, wind generated 76.4% more electricity than hydropower, and solar surpassed hydropower by 27.2%. In September alone, wind and solar produced 73.5% and 65.9% more electricity, respectively, than hydropower, due to drought conditions, particularly in the Pacific Northwest.
For the first nine months of 2024, wind and solar together produced 14.5% more electricity than coal and came close to catching up with nuclear power’s share of electricity generation (17% compared to nuclear’s 17.6%). This growth has solidified renewables’ place as the second-largest source of electricity generation in the US, behind natural gas.
Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed the EIA’s data, put it simply: “Renewable energy sources now account for a quarter of the nation’s electricity. Any attempt by the incoming Trump Administration to undermine renewables would have serious negative impacts on both the country’s electricity supply and the economy.”
Read more: US solar and wind growth defies expectations – a decade in numbers
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