Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say
A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Copper prices are set to soar more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy.
Rising demand driven by the green energy transition and a likely decline in the U.S. dollar in the second half of 2024 will push copper prices higher, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit.
Markets are banking on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates this year which will weaken the dollar and in turn make the greenback-priced copper more attractive to foreign buyers.
“The positive view for copper is more on macro factors,” Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao, told CNBC, citing likely Fed rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Additionally, at the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, a move that Citibank says “would be extremely bullish for copper.”
In a December report, the investment bank forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by extra 4.2 million tons by 2030.
This would potentially push copper prices to $15,000 a ton in 2025, the report added, way higher than the record peak of $10,730 per ton scaled in March last year.
“This assumes a very soft landing in the U.S. and Europe, an earlier global growth recovery, significant China easing,” Citi analysts said, while also emphasizing on continued investments in the energy transition sector.
A growing economy tends to boost demand for copper, which is used in electrical equipment and industrial machinery. The metal’s demand is considered a proxy for economic health.
Low supply, high demand
Copper on the London Metal Exchange was last trading at $8,559 a ton.
The base metal is a linchpin in the energy transition ecosystem, and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines.
Copper prices in the past year
Other analysts see a bullish run for copper due to mining disruptions, with Goldman Sachs expecting a deficit of over half a million tons in 2024.
Last November, First Quantum Minerals halted production at the Cobre Panamá, one of the world’s largest copper mines, following a Supreme Court ruling and nationwide protests over environmental concerns. Anglo American, a major producer, said it would cut copper output in 2024 and 2025 as it seeks to cut costs.
“The supply cuts reinforce our view that the copper market is entering a period of much clearer tightening,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, who see copper prices hitting $10,000 per ton within the year, and much higher in 2025.
The winners of the copper rush will be mainly Chile and Peru, BMI estimates. Both countries have large reserves of green transition minerals such as lithium and copper that are poised to benefit from increased investment and higher export demand. Chile holds around 21% of global copper reserves.
“Our confidence that copper substantially re-rates into 2025 [of $15,000 per ton average] is now substantially higher,” Goldman said.
Lower supply also means that new copper smelters coming online will have a shortage of concentrates to work with, said S&P Global’s Senior Copper Analyst Wang Ruilin.
Copper ores are extracted from the earth and then converted into copper concentrates. From there they are sent to smelters to be purified into refined copper, which sets the benchmark LME price.
A worker monitors a process at the Codelco Ventanas copper smelter in Ventanas, Chile, January 7, 2015.
Rodrigo Garrido | Reuters
“Copper smelters will see a supply shortage of concentrate starting in 2024, and the forecast deficits in the concentrate market is expected to deepen in 2025–27,” she told CNBC via email.
Leading electric vehicle analyst, author, and industry thought leaders Loren McDonald and Bill Ferro stop by Quick Charge to discuss EV Adoption’s acquisition by Paren, the “crisis” of EV charging reliability, and the real state of the EV market.
Depending on who you listen, EVs are either driving brands to record growth and are about cross that critical 10% of the overall market nationwide, or the future is bleak, the market is down, and EVs just aren’t selling. What’s really going on? Loren and Bill (probably) have some answers.
Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 52% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday sale, now through November 28, and be sure to use promo code BLUETTI5OFF for 5% off all power stations site wide. Click here to learn more.
Source Links
Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, TuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!
Got news? Let us know!
Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show!
Read more: All my favorite EVs, racecars, and robots from Electrify Expo Austin.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Chevy EV owners in Texas who have Reliant as their electric utility can now charge for free at night with renewable energy.
Over 150 Chevrolet dealerships across Texas are now offering the Reliant Free Charge Nights plan to new EV buyers. With Free Charge Nights, customers can offset their charging costs by receiving credits for electricity used between 11 pm and 6 am. The plan is powered entirely by renewable energy, thanks to the purchase of renewable energy certificates (RECs).
Rasesh Patel, president of NRG Consumer, says the plan is about making power personal: “We’re excited to help Chevrolet EV drivers offset the cost of charging their vehicle all while having access to a renewable electricity plan.”
This collaboration aims to make EV adoption more appealing by making charging cheaper and greener. GM Energy’s chief revenue officer, Aseem Kapur, emphasized that partnerships like this help build the ecosystem needed to support an all-electric future: “The Reliant Free Charge Nights plan is a great example of how an automaker and an energy company can work together to make EV adoption an easy decision.”
Existing Reliant customers can also sign up for the Free Charge Nights plan. To get started, Chevrolet EV owners need to designate their vehicle on the GM Energy Smart Charging Portal before enrolling in the plan.
Reliant Energy, a subsidiary of NRG Energy, serves over 1.5 million customers in Texas, making it one of the largest electricity providers in the state.
Read more: Texas to get 1 GW AI-powered virtual power plant, enough to power 200,000 homes
If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Texas is about to get a major power boost – a new AI-powered virtual power plant (VPP) delivering capacity equivalent to 200,000 homes during peak demand.
NRG Energy is teaming up with Renew Home to bring nearly 1 gigawatt (GW) of capacity to the Texas grid by 2035, aiming to make it more resilient while helping residents save on energy costs.
The new VPP will rely on hundreds of thousands of smart thermostats and other connected home devices, making use of AI technology provided by Google Cloud. These devices, like Vivint and Nest smart thermostats, will be offered to eligible customers at no cost. By automating HVAC adjustments, they help shift energy use to when electricity is cheaper, cleaner, and less strained.
NRG and Renew Home have big plans for the VPP. Starting in spring 2025, the companies plan to roll out the program across Texas, installing these smart thermostats in homes served by NRG’s retail electricity providers. Eventually, they plan to add home battery storage and EVs to expand the power plant’s capabilities.
Texas has faced record-breaking energy demands, with peak usage hitting 85 GW in 2023. As the state’s population grows and extreme weather becomes more frequent, VPPs like this one could play a key role in stabilizing the grid. VPPs aggregate a lot of small-scale energy resources, from smart thermostats to home batteries, and use them to help balance supply and demand during times of high stress on the grid.
This nearly 1 GW VPP will be one of the largest of its kind in Texas. NRG’s president of consumer operations, Rasesh Patel, calls it a “pivotal step” for improving customer experience while making Texas’ energy infrastructure more sustainable and resilient.
In addition to Renew Home, NRG is working with Google Cloud to maximize the power plant’s effectiveness. Google Cloud’s AI and analytics tools will help predict weather conditions, forecast renewable generation, and optimize energy usage, all of which will help make energy management smoother for both customers and the grid.
Ben Brown, CEO of Renew Home, said:
NRG’s commitment to creating a more resilient and sustainable energy future while also making electricity bills more affordable makes them an ideal partner for co-developing this unique VPP program.
This initiative raises the bar for future-proofing our electricity infrastructure and delivering cost savings to customers.
Read: Chinese solar giant Trina sells its Texas factory a week after it opens
To limit power outages and make your home more resilient, consider going solar with a battery storage system. In order to find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports7 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Environment1 year agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway