Next year’s US election will shape the rest of the world – buckle up

Published

2 years ago

January 3, 2024

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Maybe my perspective is skewed, overconsumption of global events perhaps, but it feels to me unnervingly like we’re nearing a perfect storm right now.

Out of a chaotic global pandemic, humanity seems to have lurched into deeply uncertain times.

We tend to struggle to focus on more than one crisis at a time, but we are facing them on multiple fronts.

While headlines have focused on the Middle East these past few months, war in Ukraine has been grinding on, our climate continues to warm at alarming rates, AI has been coming on leaps and bounds, and behind all that, democratic structures we have taken for granted are being tested to their limits.

That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.

The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.

That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.

Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.

Buckle up

As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.

My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.

There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.

The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.

More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.

As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.

But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.

The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.

A Trumpian return

We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.

Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.

The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.

Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.

The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.

This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.

We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.

Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.

His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.

The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?

Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.

How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.

Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?

What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?

Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.

But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.

Global events shaped by small-town America

In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.

Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.

Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.

Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.

The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.

America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.

Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.

US

Charlie Kirk’s widow pays tribute to ‘perfect’ husband and says her cries ‘will echo around the world’

Published

4 hours ago

September 13, 2025

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Charlie Kirk's widow pays tribute to 'perfect' husband and says her cries 'will echo around the world'

Erika Kirk, the widow of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, described him as a “perfect” husband and father, and said the “evildoers” who assassinated him have no idea what they have unleashed.

“You have no idea of the fire that you have ignited within this wife, the cries of this widow will echo around the world like a battle cry,” she said on Friday in her first public remarks since the assassination.

“If you thought that my husband’s mission was powerful before, you have no idea, you have no idea what you just have unleashed across this entire country and this world, you have no idea.”

Mrs Kirk addressed the public after a silent prayer from the studio where her husband recorded his podcast.

She thanked President Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance and his “phenomenal” wife, Usha, for the support, and praised the emergency teams who tried to save her husband’s life.

“Charlie said if he ever ran for office, his top priority would be to revive the American family. That was his priority,” Mrs Kirk said.

“But most of all, Charlie loved his children. And he loved me. With all his heart. And he made sure I knew that every day,” she said.

She called him a “perfect” father and husband, as she held back tears. She also talked about some of his favourite hobbies.

Mrs Kirk said the campus tour that his organisation, Turning Point USA, had started will continue – and urged young people to join her late husband’s political movement.

“I promise I will never let your legacy die,” she said, addressing her husband, vowing to make his movement the “biggest thing this nation has ever seen”.

Mrs Kirk says she doesn’t remember the last time she slept, and shared a story about their daughter when she ran into her arms and asked: “Where’s daddy?”

“What do you tell a three-year-old?”

Mrs Kirk finished her remarks, speaking directly to her husband: “I can’t wait to see you again one day.”

“God bless you all, and may God bless America,” she said as she wrapped up her speech.

US

Charlie Kirk suspect arrested after tip-off from father

Published

7 hours ago

September 13, 2025

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Charlie Kirk suspect arrested after tip-off from father

US officials have confirmed the suspect in the killing of Charlie Kirk has been arrested and identified as 22-year-old Tyler Robinson.

Utah governor Spencer Cox started a news conference with the phrase “we got him”, adding that a member of Robinson’s family alerted authorities. It has been widely reported that Robinson’s father had turned him in.

The details broadly match information released by US President Donald Trump earlier on Fox News.

Explainer: All we know about the suspect

Mr Kirk, 31, a Trump supporter and right-wing influencer, was fatally shot in the neck on Wednesday afternoon while speaking to university students at an event in Utah.

Two people were previously arrested and then released, with officials saying they were only persons of interest.

FBI director Kash Patel, who also spoke at the news conference, confirmed the suspect was taken into custody on Thursday at 10pm local time (5am UK time).

He praised Mr Cox and Mr Trump for their support and finished with a message for Charlie Kirk: “To my friend Charlie Kirk. Rest now, brother. We have the watch and I’ll see you in Valhalla.”

Robinson believed Kirk was ‘full of hate’

Mr Cox described how messages between Tyler Robinson and his roommate revealed information about the alleged plot including details about a rifle, matching the description of the weapon recovered after the shooting.

Bullets with messages inscribed on the casings were also discovered with the rifle, including “Hey fascist! Catch!” and “If you read this, you are gay, LMAO”.

Explainer: How Charlie Kirk was killed

Mr Cox said a family member told officials that Robinson “had become more political in recent years” and had criticised Charlie Kirk, adding that Robinson said Mr Kirk was “full of hate and spreading hate”.

Robinson ‘confessed’ to killing

Utah’s governor said a family member reached out to a friend, who contacted authorities on Thursday with information that Robinson had confessed or implied that he carried out the shooting.

Sky’s US partner network NBC News reports the family member was Robinson’s father, who went to a church minister, who then contacted a local sheriff.

Mr Cox said he thought Robinson acted alone and there was no evidence anyone else was involved, but did not speculate on a potential motive. He added that Robinson had been living for a long time with his family in Washington County, in southwest Utah.

Political motivation will feed into the political fallout

We were told that Tyler Robinson, over time, had grown more politically engaged and had a dislike of Charlie Kirk.

Words inscribed on ammunition found discarded included: “Hey fascist, catch!” There were also the words to the song “Bella ciao,” an anthem for the Partisans who fought for the Italian Resistance against the Nazis.

The sentiments would appear to confirm early suggestions of a political motivation – they will feed into the political fallout

If it was inevitable that the assassin would be found eventually, the broader uncertainty is how this episode ends for the United States.

The Utah governor acknowledged dangers when he told the news conference: “This is our moment, do we escalate or do we find an off-ramp? History will dictate if this is a turning point for our country.”

His theme was unity and it’s a message America needs to hear. The danger, laid bare in the aftermath of the shooting, is that it’s drowned out by recrimination. Reaction to the assassination suggests there’s every chance.

Neighbour: He was ‘smart’ and ‘quiet’

Kristin Schwiermann, a neighbour of the suspect’s family, said he was “smart”, “quiet” and “never caused any problems”.

“I am shocked, very shocked,” she said. “I feel for his mom. She’s a great mom, and he has a great dad.”

At the time of the shooting, Robinson was a third-year student on the electrical apprenticeship programme at Dixie Technical College in Utah.

He previously earned a four-year scholarship to Utah State University, but left after one semester in 2021.

Robinson did not appear to have any criminal history, according to state records. He was a registered voter but was
not affiliated with a political party, according to voter records.

Mr Kirk was the president and co-founder of Turning Point USA, a prominent organisation that engages conservative youth on school campuses.

Read more: Who was Charlie Kirk?

The father of two, who had millions of followers across social media, appeared at Utah Valley University on Wednesday as part of a planned tour of US college campuses.

Vigil for Kirk held in London

A vigil for Mr Kirk was held at the Montgomery Statue in Whitehall, in central London, on Friday night.

The sombre event was organised by Turning Point UK, the British branch of Kirk’s right-wing youth political organisation.

“Charlie Kirk laid his life down for young people,” said Maisey.

While Jade, wearing a Make America Great Again hat with “RIP Charlie Kirk” written on it, said: “I was very, very sad when I heard the news. I didn’t agree with everything he said but that’s OK! I’m just sad I never got to meet him.”

Turning Point UK’s chief executive Jack Ross told the crowd: “Charlie Kirk has a fantastic legacy and he did so much to shape politics in the West. He stood up for free speech, he stood up for what’s right and we demand justice.

“Charlie was not killed because he talked. He was killed because people listened.”

Charges expected next week

Robinson is due to make an initial court appearance next Tuesday, when he is also expected to be charged, the Utah County attorney’s office said.

He is being held without bail after being arrested on suspicion of aggravated murder, felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily harm and obstruction of justice charges, according to a court affidavit.

‘Big breakthrough’, says Vance

Mr Kirk’s body was flown back from Salt Lake City to his home state of Arizona on Air Force Two on Thursday, with the US vice president and close friend JD Vance on board.

On Friday, Mr Vance posted on X that the arrest was a “big breakthrough”. He added: “We took a big step this morning in getting justice for Charlie, and for his family.”

Mr Trump said he plans to attend Mr Kirk’s funeral, although no date has yet been set.

US

All we know about the suspect in Charlie Kirk’s shooting – and how he was caught

Published

13 hours ago

September 12, 2025

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All we know about the suspect in Charlie Kirk's shooting - and how he was caught

The suspect in the shooting of Charlie Kirk is in police custody after a two-day manhunt.

The right-wing influencer, 31, was fatally shot on Wednesday afternoon while speaking at an event on Utah Valley University campus in Orem.

Police began searching for the shooter on the campus, before eventually extending the manhunt to nearby neighbourhoods.

The suspect has been named as Tyler Robinson, a 22-year-old man from Utah, and the governor’s office has released a photo of him in custody.

US president Donald Trump told Fox News the suspect was in custody on Friday, adding “somebody that was very close to him turned him in”.

Officials have now revealed further details about the suspect, including what a family member said about him and messages he sent a friend about his alleged plot.

Here’s what we know about the suspect so far:

How was the suspect caught?

Mr Trump told Fox News that a person “very close” with the suspect went to “the father”, who then went to a US Marshal.

“The father convinced the son,” he said, adding that they then “drove into the police headquarters, and he’s there now”.

He added that he may need to be corrected and that he was “talking based on what I’m hearing”.

In a news conference later, Utah Governor Spencer Cox said a member of Robinson’s family reached out to a family friend, who then contacted the Washington County Sheriff’s Office with information that Robinson “had confessed to them or implied that he had committed the incident”.

NBC news reports that the family member is his father – and that the father then went to a church minister he knew, who contacted a local sheriff.

He said the family member told the FBI that Robinson “had become more political in recent years” and that, at a dinner prior to the shooting, he had mentioned Mr Kirk’s upcoming visit to Utah Valley University.

Mr Cox said they had “talked about why they didn’t like him and the viewpoints that he had” and that “the family member also stated Kirk was full of hate and spreading hate”.

He went on to say that messages between Tyler Robinson and his roommate revealed details about the alleged plot.

“The content of these messages included messages affiliated with the contact ‘Tyler’ stating a need to retrieve a rifle from a drop point, leaving the rifle in a bush, messages related to visually watching the area where a rifle was left, and a message referring to having left the rifle wrapped in a towel,” he said.

Latest updates as suspect named

Mr Cox added that there was no evidence to suggest anyone else was involved, but that the investigation was ongoing.

He said the suspect was taken into custody in Washington County, in southern Utah, around a three to four hour drive from Orem, where his family lived.

Pictures and footage released by the FBI

Mr Cox also said that the suspect changed clothes on campus.

He said footage “first spotted” him with one outfit on, which he allegedly changed while on the roof of one building.

Mr Cox said he then “changed back into that clothing at some point” – meaning the first outfit.

All this meant, the governor said, that when he was arrested, the suspect was wearing the same clothes he had on before the shooting.

Earlier, Mr Trump had said the suspect was “28 or 29”, but caveated that his facts were “subject to be corrected” and “based on what I’m hearing”.

Before news of his capture came in, the FBI had released images of a “person of interest” in the shooting, later revealed to be Robinson, showing him wearing a hat, sunglasses, and a backpack.

They also released video footage of him fleeing after the incident, where he could be seen walking on the roof of the building from where the fatal shot was fired.

He was then seen climbing down and heading toward a wooded area, where police say he abandoned his rifle.

The first description of the suspect came from a police officer on her radio shortly after the shooting, who said he was “wearing jeans, black shirt, black mask, long rifle”.

Beau Mason, commissioner of the Department of Public Safety, later said he “appears to be of college age” and that he “blended in well with a college institution”.

What else do we know about Robinson?

Sky News have now verified what appear to be school records posted in 2020 by his mother which show a 4.0 average – a very high score, akin to straight As in the UK.

“This boy is a genius,” she added.

Robinson expected to be charged with aggravated murder

The suspect is expected to be charged with aggravated murder, felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily injury and obstruction of justice, according to a probable cause affidavit.

The offences are all state charges.

Mr Cox said that under Utah law, they have three days to file charging documents, and that it should come “early next week.”

Utah officials previously said they were going to seek the death penalty for Charlie Kirk’s suspected shooter.

What weapon did the shooter use?

The weapon was found after the shooting in a wooded area where the shooter had fled, according to FBI agent Robert Bohls.

He described the gun as a “high-powered bolt action rifle”.

Investigators collected a footwear impression, a palm print, and forearm imprints for analysis.

Firearms consultant David Dyson told Sky News that, based on the range from where they are believed to have fired, the gunman would likely need to be a somewhat skilled target shooter.

But he suggested that while the shot may be difficult for anyone without experience, it’s “not a great range” for someone with practice.