Next year’s US election will shape the rest of the world – buckle up

Published

11 months ago

January 3, 2024

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Maybe my perspective is skewed, overconsumption of global events perhaps, but it feels to me unnervingly like we’re nearing a perfect storm right now.

Out of a chaotic global pandemic, humanity seems to have lurched into deeply uncertain times.

We tend to struggle to focus on more than one crisis at a time, but we are facing them on multiple fronts.

While headlines have focused on the Middle East these past few months, war in Ukraine has been grinding on, our climate continues to warm at alarming rates, AI has been coming on leaps and bounds, and behind all that, democratic structures we have taken for granted are being tested to their limits.

That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.

The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.

That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.

Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.

Buckle up

As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.

My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.

There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.

The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.

More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.

As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.

But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.

The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.

A Trumpian return

We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.

Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.

The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.

Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.

The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.

This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.

We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.

Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.

His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.

The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?

Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.

How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.

Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?

What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?

Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.

But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.

Global events shaped by small-town America

In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.

Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.

Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.

Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.

The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.

America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.

Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.

US

Donald Trump can seek dismissal of hush money case as sentencing postponed

Published

1 day ago

November 22, 2024

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Donald Trump can seek dismissal of hush money case as sentencing postponed

A judge has postponed sentencing in Donald Trump’s hush money case and granted permission for his lawyers to seek a dismissal.

It comes after the Manhattan district attorney said he wouldn’t oppose a motion to delay the sentencing.

In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud.

It was the first time a US president had been convicted of or charged with a criminal offence.

Trump had tried to cover up “hush money” payments to a porn star in the days before the 2016 election.

When Stormy Daniels‘ claims of a sexual liaison threatened to upend his presidential campaign, Trump directed his lawyer to pay $130,000 (£102,000) to keep her quiet.

The payment buried the story and he later won the presidency.

Trump denied the charges and said the case was politically motivated. He also denied the sexual encounter took place.

New York State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan today delayed the sentencing, which had been due to take place on Tuesday.

The office of district attorney Alvin Bragg had asked the judge to postpone all proceedings until Trump finishes his four-year presidency, which starts on 20 January.

Trump’s lawyers say the case should be dismissed because it will create “unconstitutional impediments” to his ability to govern.

Responding to Friday’s decision, a Trump campaign spokesman said: “The American People have issued a mandate to return him to office and dispose of all remnants of the Witch Hunt cases.”

The judge set a 2 December deadline for Trump’s lawyers to file their motion, while prosecutors have until 9 December to respond.

He did not set a new date for sentencing or indicate when he would rule on any motion to throw out the case.

Even before Trump’s win in this month’s election, experts said a jail term was unlikely and a fine or probation more probable.

But his resounding victory over Kamala Harris made the prospect of time behind bars or probation even less likely.

Trump, 78, was also charged last year in three other cases.

One involved him keeping classified documents after he left office and the other two centre on alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.

A Florida judge dismissed the documents case in July, the Georgia election case is in limbo, and the Justice Department is expected to wind down the federal election case as it has a policy of not prosecuting a sitting president.

Trump last week nominated his lawyers in the hush money case, Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, for senior roles in the Justice department.

When he re-enters the White House, Trump will also have the power to shut down the Georgia and New York cases.

US

Pam Bondi: Key proponent of Trump’s false 2020 election claims set to head justice department after Gaetz withdrawal

Published

2 days ago

November 22, 2024

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Pam Bondi: Key proponent of Trump's false 2020 election claims set to head justice department after Gaetz withdrawal

Donald Trump has pledged for years to surround himself with ultra-loyalists who can mould his government to his vision without barriers.

That’s precisely why he picked Matt Gaetz. Now he’s out, Pam Bondi is in and she’s equally loyal.

Gaetz was uniquely unpopular on Capitol Hill but ultra-MAGA and ultra-loyal to the president-elect.

He was chosen by the president-elect to do his bidding inside the Justice Department as attorney general.

Critics called his pick “a red alert moment for democracy” and the man a “gonzo agent of chaos” – language that would surely only affirm Trump’s decision in his own proudly disruptive mind.

If it wasn’t for the fact that the president-elect is himself a convicted felon, and a man found liable in a civil court of his own sexual offences, the prospect of Gaetz, with all his baggage, making it through the nomination process would have seemed remote.

But Donald Trump’s return to the White House suggested anything is possible.

And so, beyond his loyalty, Gaetz was Trump’s test for his foot soldiers on Capitol Hill. How loyal were they? Would they wave through anyone he appointed?

It turns out that Gaetz, and the storm around his private life, was too much for a proportion of them.

At least five Senate Republicans were flatly against Matt Gaetz’s confirmation. We understand that they communicated to other senators and those close to Trump that they were unlikely to be swayed.

They included the Republican old guard like Senator Mitch McConnell.

Beyond the hard “no” senators, there were between 20 and 30 other Republicans who were very uncomfortable about having to vote for Gaetz on the Senate floor.

The key question is whether Gaetz was Trump’s intentional wild card crazy choice that he knew, deep down, would probably never fly.

Was Gaetz the candidate he had accepted would be vetoed by senators – who would then feel compelled to wave the rest of his nominees through?

Will Pete Hegseth’s alleged sexual impropriety concern them as they consider the suitability of the former Fox News host and army major to run the Department of Defence?

What about Tulsi Gabbard, the candidate Russian state TV calls ‘our girl’, and the appropriateness of her running America’s intelligence agencies?

These are all appointments that the politicians on Capitol Hill must consider and confirm in the weeks ahead.

We don’t yet know who Trump will choose to direct the FBI.

There are some names being floated which will make the establishment of Washington shudder but then that’s precisely why Trump was elected. He is the disrupter. He said so at every rally, on repeat.

He was quick to pivot to another name to replace Gaetz.

Bondi is the former attorney general of Florida. Professionally she is in a different league to Gaetz. She’s been a tough prosecutor, with a no-nonsense reputation.

She is also among the most loyal of loyalists. Her attachment to Trump stretches way back.

I first came across her in Philadelphia in November 2020 when she was among Trump surrogates claiming the election back then had been stolen from them by Joe Biden and the Democrats.

She was a key proponent of the false claims the election had been rigged and Trump was the rightful winner.

The court cases concluding that was all nonsense didn’t seem to convince her.

Now she is poised to head up the Department of Justice as the country’s top law enforcement official.

US

Donald Trump on day one: Pace of change ‘like nothing you’ve seen in history’, warns campaign official

Published

2 days ago

November 21, 2024

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Within hours of taking office, president-elect Donald Trump plans to begin rolling out policies including large-scale deportations, according to his transition team.

Sky News partner network NBC News has spoken with more than half a dozen people familiar with the executive orders that his team plans to enact.

One campaign official said changes are expected at a pace that is “like nothing you’ve seen in history”, to signal a dramatic break from President Joe Biden’s administration.

Mr Trump is preparing on day one to overturn specific policies put in place by Mr Biden. Among the measures, reported by sources close to the transition team, are:

• The speedy and large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants

• Ending travel reimbursement for military members seeking abortion care

• Restricting transgender service members’ access to gender-affirming care

But much of the first day is likely to focus on stopping illegal immigration – the centrepiece of Trump’s candidacy. He is expected to sign up to five executive orders aimed at dealing with that issue alone after he is sworn in on 20 January.

“There will without question be a lot of movement quickly, likely day one, on the immigration front,” a top Trump ally said.

“There will be a push to make a huge early show and assert himself to show his campaign promises were not hollow.”

But Mr Trump’s campaign pledges also could be difficult to implement.

Deporting people on the scale he wants will be a logistical challenge that could take years. Questions also remain about promised tax cuts.

Meanwhile, his pledge to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in just 24 hours would be near impossible.

Even so, advisers based at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort or at nearby offices in West Palm Beach, Florida, are reportedly strategising about ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Following his decisive victory on 5 November, the president-elect has moved swiftly to build a cabinet and senior White House team.

As of Thursday, he had selected more than 30 people for senior positions in his administration, compared with just three at a similar point in his 2016 transition.

Stephen Moore, a senior economic adviser in Mr Trump’s campaign, told NBC News: “The thing to realise is Trump is no dummy.

“He knows he’s got two to three years at most to get anything done. And then he becomes a lame duck and we start talking about [the presidential election in] 2028.”