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Maybe my perspective is skewed, overconsumption of global events perhaps, but it feels to me unnervingly like we’re nearing a perfect storm right now. 

Out of a chaotic global pandemic, humanity seems to have lurched into deeply uncertain times.

We tend to struggle to focus on more than one crisis at a time, but we are facing them on multiple fronts.

While headlines have focused on the Middle East these past few months, war in Ukraine has been grinding on, our climate continues to warm at alarming rates, AI has been coming on leaps and bounds, and behind all that, democratic structures we have taken for granted are being tested to their limits.

That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.

The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.

That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.

Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.

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Is Trump barred from 2024 run?

Buckle up

As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.

My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.

There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.

The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.

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‘I’m not the only one who can defeat Trump’

More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.

As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.

But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.

The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.

A Trumpian return

We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.

Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.

The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.

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What will decide the US election?

Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.

The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.

This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.

We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.

Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.

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Trump: ‘We’re close to being in WW3’

His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.

The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?

Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.

How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.

Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?

What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?

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Putin: Trump is being ‘persecuted’

Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.

But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.

Global events shaped by small-town America

In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.

Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.

Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.

Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.

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Ukraine’s war ‘forgotten’ in US

The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.

America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.

Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.

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Who will Donald Trump choose as his running mate?

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Who will Donald Trump choose as his running mate?

Donald Trump needs to choose a running mate for the 2024 election, and rumour has it he’s treating it like his old TV show: The Apprentice.

After a rather high-profile falling out with Mike Pence, the Republican nominee is deciding who could be his next vice president.

He is expected to reveal his choice at the Republican National Convention next month.

Let’s take a look at who the candidates are… and why each of one might hear those famous words: “You’re hired!”.

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum reacts during an event for announcing he enters the 2024 presidential race, joining a growing field of candidates hoping to topple Donald Trump and secure the Republican nomination, in Fargo, North Dakota, U.S. June 7, 2023. REUTERS/Dan Koeck
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North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is seen as a frontrunner. Pic: AP

Doug Burgum

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum hoped his small-town values would appeal to Republican voters enough to choose him as the presidential nominee. It didn’t work, but does it make him an appealing pick for VP?

The 67-year-old former software company executive has stressed his humble origins and previously said the next US president should be “someone who’s held jobs where you shower at the end of the day, not at the beginning”.

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You’re hired: Burgum might be a safe pair of hands due to his experience in the worlds of politics and business, and his independent wealth (north of $100m) could be useful campaign funds.

You’re fired: North Dakota is as red as they come, so picking Burgum doesn’t come with the advantage of moving the dial in a swing state.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., waves before Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at his birthday celebration, hosted by Club 47, in West Palm Beach, Fla., Friday, June 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
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Marco Rubio at an event for Donald Trump’s birthday. Pic: AP

Marco Rubio

One of Florida’s two Republican senators, Marco Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants who fled to Miami during the Batista dictatorship.

He ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 but dropped out after losing the Florida primary to Trump, who relentlessly mocked him as “Little Marco”.

You’re hired: He brings strong foreign policy credentials, having served on the Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence committees, and has a track record of attracting Latino voters.

You’re fired: Rubio has drawn criticism from the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement in the past for his immigration reform legislation which could pose a problem for him, even though he has since renounced his own deal. There’s also the wrinkle that the US constitution appears to possibly prohibit Electoral College electors from voting for inhabitants of their states for both president and vice president.

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) departs a vote at the U.S. Capitol May 14, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)
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JD Vance is senator for Ohio. Pic: AP

JD Vance

A US Marines veteran, JD Vance rose to become senator for Ohio after growing up in poverty.

He once described himself as a “never Trumper” but has since U-turned into being a reliable supporter of The Donald, even attending court in New York to support him at his hush money trial.

You’re hired: Vance aligns with Trump’s populist mindset and would likely be palatable to the MAGA base – perhaps even as a potential successor one day.

You’re fired: Ohio hasn’t voted Democrat since 2012 so appointing Vance likely doesn’t give Trump a second-in-command pick who could help get him over the line in a swing state.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump looks to Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., during a Fox News Channel town hall Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024, in Greenville, S.C. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
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Donald Trump and Tim Scott earlier this year. Pic: AP

Tim Scott

The only black Republican US senator, Tim Scott launched a bid to become the Republican presidential nominee but later withdrew from the race.

He has since been name-dropped by Trump himself as a possible vice presidential pick.

Scott has accused President Joe Biden and “the radical left” of “attacking every rung of the ladder that helped me climb”.

You’re hired: Scott is seen as a potential asset to Trump both on a policy front and in helping to cut Democratic margins, particularly with Black and Hispanic male voters.

You’re fired: Scott has been outspoken about his support for a federal abortion ban in the aftermath of the fall of Roe v Wade, whereas Trump has said the decision should be left to individual states.

Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., speaks before Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump at the ...People's Convention... of Turning Point Action Saturday, June 15, 2024 in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
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Byron Donalds was born in New York City. Pic: AP

Byron Donalds

In terms of having a similar name to Trump, Byron Donalds certainly has the edge over the other potential VP candidates.

Donalds, 45, is a congressman from Florida who has been a supporter of the former president since he entered Congress. He voted against the certification of electors from Arizona and Pennsylvania and is a 2020 election denier.

You’re hired: Donalds is a strong debater with experience on TV who could help the Trump campaign reach out to black voters.

You’re fired: Donalds has a limited national profile and could face a similar constitutional predicament as Marco Rubio as he also lives in Florida.

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., attends a news conference at the Republican National Committee after a meeting with Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump and the House Republican Conference on Thursday, June 13, 2024. (Tom Williams/Pool via AP)
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Elise Stefanik’s profile has grown within the Republican party. Pic: AP

Elise Stefanik

A Republican congresswoman from New York, Elise Stefanik’s profile has been on the rise in the GOP (Grand Old Party) for years.

She shot to fame after her questioning of university presidents about antisemitism led to a huge outcry and fallout. In May, she addressed the Knesset in Israel and lambasted the Biden administration’s approach to its ally.

You’re hired: One of the few women thought to be on the VP shortlist, Stefanik could help shore up Trump’s support among female and suburban voters as well as bring youth to the ticket.

You’re fired: Stefanik hails from New York, a solidly blue state, so her inclusion on the ticket is unlikely to help bring more Electoral College votes to Trump’s side.

Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in National Harbor, Md., Feb. 22, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)
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Ben Carson speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference. Pic: AP

Ben Carson

Ben Carson, 72, served in Trump’s administration last time around as secretary for housing and urban development.

His time in government came after he briefly ran for the Republican nomination in 2016 before eventually pulling out of the race and endorsing Trump.

You’re hired: Carson hails from Michigan, a battleground state that is likely to be among the most crucial races to watch on election night.

You’re fired: Though well-known, if Trump is looking for an attack dog VP then Carson might not be the right candidate. He’s not considered to be the most outspoken or charismatic pick.

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David Cameron can ‘kiss my a**’

Less likely – Marjorie Taylor-Greene

A Republican congresswoman known for her embrace of conspiracy theories and fierce support for Trump, Marjorie Taylor-Greene nonetheless could make sense as a running mate for her political hero.

However, she is not believed to be on the list of candidates being vetted by the Trump campaign.

She was elected to Congress in 2020 and quickly became a powerful – and vocal – player in the Republican Party.

If he’s still in post after a hypothetical Trump/MTG win, it would be an awkward appointment for the UK foreign secretary, Lord Cameron, whom Taylor-Greene had choice words for…

You’re hired: Taylor-Greene is staunchly loyal to Trump and popular among the MAGA right-wing of the Republican Party.

You’re fired: She’s a divisive figure nationwide and has been criticised for her – sometimes bizarre – outbursts, including talk of “Jewish space lasers”.

FILE - South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks prior to remarks from Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally, March 16, 2024, in Vandalia, Ohio. South Dakota may be best known for Noem...s no-apologies approach to politics, earning her the favor of former President Donald Trump. On Tuesday, voters will decide what a Republican majority in the South Dakota legislature looks like.  (AP Photo/Jeff Dean, File)
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Kristi Noem speaks at a rally in March. Pic: AP

Less likely – Kristi Noem

The current governor of South Dakota, Kristi Noem also has experience as a former member of Congress.

Her profile grew during the COVID-19 pandemic when she declined to close businesses and public spaces in her state to limit the spread of the virus. But it was in 2024 when she became even more well-known… after describing an incident of killing her dog in her own memoir.

As time has gone on she appears to be an increasingly unlikely choice for VP.

You’re hired: Noem brings experience as a state governor and fits in with Trump’s MAGA crowd.

You’re fired: She has been a supporter of the abortion restrictions in her state, where there is a near-total ban except when necessary to save the life of the mother. This hardline stance could make her a liability in a general election where public support for abortion access is high.

Pic: Reuters
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks as she announces she is suspending her campaign, in Charleston, South Carolina, U.S., March 6, 2024. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
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Nikki Haley has been ruled out already. Pic: AP

Already ruled out – Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley ran against Trump in the contest to secure the Republican nomination earlier this year. She weathered a string of defeats in various states before eventually suspending her campaign.

Nonetheless, she demonstrated that a significant proportion of Republican voters prefer her to Trump’s band of MAGA politics, perhaps setting the stage for a return in 2028 and beyond.

Trump has already ruled her out, and she’d be unlikely to accept even if he hadn’t. But just for fun:

You’re hired: She’s a strong politician with a track record of winning elections, and appeals to more moderate Republicans who might be nervous about another Trump presidency. But…

You’re fired: Haley is a critic of Trump, who she described as “unhinged” and too chaotic and divisive to be an effective president.

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Boy, eight, and mother in critical condition as nine people injured in shooting at Detroit waterpark

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Boy, eight, and mother in critical condition as nine people injured in shooting at Detroit waterpark

An eight-year-old boy is in a critical condition after he was shot in the head at a waterpark in Michigan – with eight other people injured.

His mother is also in a critical condition, while his four-year-old brother is in a stable condition with a leg wound, after a gunman opened fire in a Detroit suburb on Saturday.

Another other six victims, who are all aged 30 or over, including a husband and wife and a 78-year-old man, are said to be in a stable condition.

Police tracked the suspected gunman, described as a 42-year-old white man, to a home, where they sent a drone inside to find he had died by a self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said.

The shooting happened at just after 5pm at the Brooklands Plaza Splash Pad in Rochester Hills, an area of a city park where people can play in fountains of water.

Police respond to the scene of a shooting at the Brooklands Plaza Splash Pad, Saturday, June 15, 2024, in Rochester Hills, Mich. The Oakland County Sheriff...s Office says there are ...numerous wounded victims... after police were called for an active shooter. (WXYZ via AP)
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Police respond to a shooting at the Brooklands Plaza Splash Pad. Pic: WXYZ/AP

Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard said the attack appeared to be random, with the gunman driving up to the park, walking to the water recreation area and firing up to 28 times, stopping multiple times to reload.

“People were falling, getting hit, trying to run,” he said. “Terrible things that unfortunately all of us in our law enforcement business have seen way too much.”

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The sheriff said the gunman, who at least one witness said was using two handguns, was “apparently in no rush” and “just calmly walked back to his car”.

An officer arrived at the scene within two minutes of the 911 call, he said, with the first deputies providing first aid including tourniquets.

A handgun and three empty magazines were recovered from the scene, the sheriff said.

Police were able to quickly come up with a likely address, and a car matching the suspect’s was discovered at the residence.

Sheriff Bouchard said the quick actions of police may have prevented a “second chapter” to the shooting as he showed a photo of a semiautomatic rifle on a table inside the home.

Officials with the Oakland County Sheriff's Department, Rochester Hills Fire Department and other jurisdictions secure the scene of a shooting at the Brooklands Plaza Splash Pad, Saturday, June 15, 2024, in Rochester Hills, Mich. (Katy Kildee/Detroit News via AP)
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Officials secure the scene. Pic Katy Kildee/Detroit News/AP

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Another handgun, believed to have been used by the suspect to take his own life, was also found inside.

The suspect, who is believed to have lived with his mother, did not live in Rochester Hills and it is not yet known why he went to the park or what his motive may have been.

Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett said he “started to cry” when he arrived at the scene because it is supposed to be a place where people gather and have fun.

The shooting was a reminder “that we live in a fragile place,” he said, while Sheriff Bouchard called it “a gut punch” for the county.

“Our most fervent hope, at least at his point, is that all of the injured victims have speedy recoveries,” he said.

“None of us… anticipated going into Father’s Day weekend with this kind of tragedy that families will be deeply affected by forever.”

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Missouri woman who spent 43 years behind bars has murder conviction overturned

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Missouri woman who spent 43 years behind bars has murder conviction overturned

A woman who was a psychiatric patient when she incriminated herself in a 1980 Missouri murder has had her conviction overturned after spending 43 years behind bars.

Sandra Hemme’s lawyers say a disgraced police officer was responsible for the killing of 31-year-old library worker Patricia Jeschke and this is the longest time a woman has been imprisoned for a wrongful conviction in US history.

Judge Ryan Horsman ruled on Friday the 63-year-old had established evidence of actual innocence, said her trial counsel was ineffective and prosecutors had failed to disclose evidence that would have helped her.

He said she must be freed within 30 days unless prosecutors retry her, but her lawyers, with the New York-based Innocence Project, are seeking her immediate release.

“We are grateful to the Court for acknowledging the grave injustice Ms Hemme has endured for more than four decades,” they said in a statement, promising to keep up their efforts to dismiss the charges and reunite Hemme with her family.

The brutal killing of Ms Jeschke grabbed the headlines after her worried mother climbed through her apartment window in in St Joseph, Missouri, and found her daughter’s naked body on the floor surrounded by blood on 13 November 1980.

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Call for ‘urgent explanation’ after police car filmed hitting cow

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Her hands were tied behind her back with a telephone cord, and a pair of tights was wrapped around her throat, with a knife under her head.

Ms Hemme was shackled in leather wrist restraints and so heavily sedated she “could not hold her head up straight” or “articulate anything beyond monosyllabic responses” when she was first questioned over Ms Jeschke’s death, according to her lawyers.

They alleged in a petition seeking her exoneration that authorities ignored her “wildly contradictory” statements and suppressed evidence implicating Michael Holman, then a 22-year-old police officer who tried to use the murdered woman’s credit card on the day her body was found.

The judge found that “no evidence whatsoever outside of Ms Hemme’s unreliable statements connects her to the crime”.

“In contrast,” he added, “this Court finds that the evidence directly ties Holman to this crime and murder scene.”

Holman, who had been a suspect and was questioned at the time, was fired after investigations for burglary and insurance fraud, and died in 2015.

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