That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.
The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.
That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.
Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:00
Is Trump barred from 2024 run?
Buckle up
Advertisement
As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.
My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.
There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.
The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:19
‘I’m not the only one who can defeat Trump’
More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.
As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.
But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.
The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.
A Trumpian return
We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.
Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.
The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:54
What will decide the US election?
Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.
The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.
This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.
We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.
Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:41
Trump: ‘We’re close to being in WW3’
His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.
The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?
Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.
How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.
Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?
What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:38
Putin: Trump is being ‘persecuted’
Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.
But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.
Global events shaped by small-town America
In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.
Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.
Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.
Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:29
Ukraine’s war ‘forgotten’ in US
The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.
America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.
Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.
Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he “will not back down” from Russia’s goals in Ukraine during a phone call today, the Kremlin has said.
The Russian president spoke to his US counterpart for almost an hour, and Mr Trump “again raised the issue of an early end to military action” in Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters.
In response, Mr Putin said “Russia will not back down” from its aims there, which include “the elimination of the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs,” Mr Ushakov said.
The phrase “root causes” is shorthand for Moscow’s argument that it was compelled to invade Ukraine in order to prevent the country from joining NATO.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:50
Trump and Putin’s latest call on Ukraine
Ukraine and its European allies say this is a pretext to justify what they call an imperial-style war, but Mr Trump has previously shown sympathy with Russia.
At the same time, Mr Putin told the US president that Russia is ready to continue negotiating, the aide said.
The Russian president said any prospective peace deal must see Ukraine give up its NATO bid and recognise his country’s territorial gains.
More on Donald Trump
Related Topics:
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seen with Mr Trump in June, is pushing for Ukraine to join NATO. Pic: Reuters
He also briefed Mr Trump on agreements made last month, which saw Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners of war and dead soldiers.
Specific dates for the third round of peace talks in Istanbul were not discussed – nor was the US decision to halt some shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine.
Mr Putin and Mr Trump’s call came after the Pentagon confirmed some weapons due to be sent to Ukraine have been held as it reviews military stockpiles.
The paused shipments include air defence missiles and precision-guided artillery, two people familiar with the situation have said.
Donald Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ has been passed by the US congress, sending it to the president to sign into law.
The controversial tax breaks and spending cuts package cleared its final hurdle as the Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly approved the bill with a 218-214 vote.
The bill delivers tax breaks Mr Trump promised in his 2024 election campaign, cuts health and food safety programmes, and zeroes out dozens of green energy incentives.
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), it will lower tax revenues by $4.5trn over 10 years and add $3.4trn to the US’s $36.2trn debt.
But despite concerns over the 869-page bill’s price tag – and its hit to healthcare programmes – Republicans largely lined up in support, with just two rebelling on the vote.
Image: House Speaker Mike Johnson is congratulated following the vote. Pic: Reuters
Every Democrat in Congress voted against the bill, blasting it as a giveaway to the wealthy that will leave millions of Americans uninsured.
House Speaker Mike Johnson made the Republicans’ closing argument for the bill, telling Congress: “For everyday Americans, this means real, positive change that they can feel.”
More on Donald Trump
Related Topics:
Earlier, the House’s Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries gave a record-breaking eight-hour and 44-minute speech against it.
“The focus of this bill, the justification for all of the cuts that will hurt everyday Americans, is to provide massive tax breaks for billionaires,” he said.
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
The bill’s spending cuts largely target Medicaid, the health programme that covers 71 million Americans on low incomes.
It will tighten enrolment standards, institute a work requirement and clamp down on a funding mechanism used by states to boost federal payments.
The changes could leave nearly 12 million people without health insurance, according to the CBO.
On the other side of the ledger, it will stave off tax increases that were due to hit most Americans at the end of the year, when tax cuts from President Trump’s first term were due to expire.
It also sets up new tax breaks for overtime pay, seniors and tipped income.
Sean “Diddy” Combs has been found guilty of transportation for prostitution following a landmark trial in New York – but cleared of more serious charges of sex trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.
The hip-hop mogul was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura, and other crimes including kidnapping, arson and blackmail.
Jurors decided not all the allegations were proven – but Combs still faces several years in prison after being convicted of transporting people across the US, including Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane”, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.
However, with the not guilty verdict on three other more serious charges – racketeering conspiracy and two of sex trafficking – the 55-year-old has avoided a maximum possible sentence of life behind bars.
Despite a request by his defence team, he was denied bail ahead of sentencing – which has been scheduled for Friday 3 October.
Image: Combs appeared upbeat in court as the verdict was announced. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
Marc Agnifilo, part of Diddy’s defence team, described the ruling as “a victory of all victories”.
Outside the courthouse, he said the jury “got the situation right, or certainly right enough”.
Another of his lawyers, Nicole Westmoreland, said: “He actually battled for his freedom, for his innocence, and he did it.
“And, you know, a lot of times, people are too afraid to do it. Today is a major win to show what the system can do.”
The mixed result from the jury came not long into their third day of deliberations. In the courtroom in Manhattan, there were cheers from Combs’s family – and the rapper himself held his hands up in a prayer motion, looking at the jury, and hugged his defence lawyer Teny Geragos.
His mood seemed very different to just a day earlier – when he learned the jury had reached a verdict on four of the five charges, but were split on the racketeering charge.
After deliberating for longer on Wednesday, they came to a unanimous decision.
As the verdict sunk in, Combs appeared overwhelmed, kneeling at his chair and bowing his head in prayer once again.
“I’ll be home soon,” he said as he faced his family members. “I love you, Mum.”
Image: Combs later seemed to become overwhelmed with relief. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
The application for bail
Combs’s defence team argued that as he had been cleared of the most serious charges, he should be bailed ahead of sentencing.
His lawyer Marc Agnifilo said he had been a model prisoner and added: “He’s not going to flee. He’s been given his life back.”
But prosecutor Maurene Comey argued Combs had a history of violence, which Judge Arub Subramanian agreed with. “At trial, the defence conceded the defendant’s violence in his personal relationships,” he said.
After being denied bail, Combs attempted get the judge’s attention – but after consulting with Mr Agnifilo, he did not speak.
Image: Casandra ‘Cassie’ was heavily pregnant when she gave evidence at the start of the trial. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
Cassie ‘paved the way’
Reacting to the verdict, Cassie’s lawyer Douglas H Wigdor said that although jurors did not find Combs guilty of sex-trafficking Cassie, she had “paved the way” for the other guilty verdicts.
“By coming forward with her experience, Cassie has left an indelible mark on both the entertainment industry and the fight for justice,” he said.
“We must repeat – with no reservation – that we believe and support our client, who showed exemplary courage throughout this trial.”
Cassie, who testified heavily pregnant just three weeks before giving birth, displayed “unquestionable strength”, he added, and “brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit”.
Videos of “freak off” sex sessions with male escorts were shown to jurors only during the seven-week trial, with the footage kept private from members of the public and media in court.
Former employees, along with escorts, hotel staff and police officers were among those to give evidence.
Cassie and Jane, who used a pseudonym, also testified. They told the court they were coerced into drug-fuelled “freak offs” – which were also referred to as “hotel nights” or “wild king nights” – with male escorts, and abused throughout their relationships.
Combs’s defence team presented a very different picture to show that sexual acts, including freak offs, were consensual.
They conceded the music star could be violent, had a bad temper and used drugs. He also had multiple relationships at the same time. But crucially, they said, while he was “not proud” of some of his behaviour, none of it made him guilty of the charges against him.
After hearing evidence of flights and travel for escorts and Cassie and Jane, paid for by Combs, as well as hotel bookings across the US and the Caribbean, jurors found him guilty of the transportation to engage in prostitution charges. However, they did not find that the allegations against the rapper amounted to sex trafficking or racketeering.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:29
CCTV footage shows Diddy ‘attacking’ Cassie in hotel
The Cassie hotel tape
Combs, known variously as Puff Daddy, P Diddy, and Diddy over the years, was once one of the most influential figures in hip-hop – famous as a producer, founder of Bad Boy Records and manager of the late Notorious BIG in the 1990s, as well as a rapper in his own right.
As an artist, he won three Grammys during his career, and had hits including I’ll Be Missing You, Come With Me, and Bad Boy For Life.
In September 2023, he received the “global icon” award from MTV and was given the key to New York City at a ceremony in Times Square, just a few miles away from the streets in Harlem where he spent his first years.
Allegations first came to prominence in November 2023, when Cassie filed a bombshell lawsuit accusing him of coercing her into unwanted sex sessions, as well as blackmail and several incidences of violence.
The suit was settled in 24 hours – for $20m, it emerged during the trial – but months later CNN aired hotel security footageshowing Combs punching and kicking Cassie and throwing her to the floor in 2016.
He apologised after the video aired, saying: “I was disgusted when I did it.”
Footage from the hotel incident was shown during the trial.
Following the verdict, the rapper now awaits sentencing. He also still faces several civil lawsuits, most of which were filed in the wake of his arrest in September 2024.