Next year’s US election will shape the rest of the world – buckle up

Published

2 years ago

January 3, 2024

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Maybe my perspective is skewed, overconsumption of global events perhaps, but it feels to me unnervingly like we’re nearing a perfect storm right now.

Out of a chaotic global pandemic, humanity seems to have lurched into deeply uncertain times.

We tend to struggle to focus on more than one crisis at a time, but we are facing them on multiple fronts.

While headlines have focused on the Middle East these past few months, war in Ukraine has been grinding on, our climate continues to warm at alarming rates, AI has been coming on leaps and bounds, and behind all that, democratic structures we have taken for granted are being tested to their limits.

That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.

The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.

That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.

Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.

Buckle up

As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.

My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.

There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.

The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.

More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.

As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.

But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.

The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.

A Trumpian return

We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.

Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.

The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.

Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.

The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.

This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.

We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.

Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.

His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.

The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?

Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.

How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.

Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?

What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?

Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.

But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.

Global events shaped by small-town America

In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.

Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.

Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.

Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.

The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.

America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.

Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.

US

More than a dozen killed as US attacks alleged drug boats in Pacific ‘on Donald Trump’s orders’

Published

13 hours ago

October 28, 2025

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More than a dozen killed as US attacks alleged drug boats in Pacific 'on Donald Trump's orders'

Fourteen people have died after the US launched its latest attacks on boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which it says were transporting illegal drugs to the country.

It brings the total number of dead from 13 airstrikes to 57, amid increasing tensions between the US and the governments of both Colombia and Venezuela.

A 30-second video posted on X by the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, showed four vessels exploding on Monday on what he said were the orders of US President Donald Trump.

Analysis: Is Trump going to attack Venezuela?

One of the boats appears to be piled high with packages.

Mr Hegseth, who is with Mr Trump on a tour of Asia, said US forces carried out “three lethal kinetic strikes on four vessels operated by Designated Terrorist Organisations (DTO) trafficking narcotics”.

They were identified as drug boats by US intelligence, he said, travelling on “known narco-trafficking routes, and carrying narcotics”.

A total of 14 “male narco-terrorists” onboard were killed, he said, “with one survivor”, who was rescued by Mexican authorities.

Narco-terrorists “have killed more Americans than Al-Qaeda, and they will be treated the same. We will track them, we will network them, and then, we will hunt and kill them,” he added.

The condition and whereabouts of the survivor are not known.

It is the latest in a series of attacks on boats the US says have been carrying drugs in both the Pacific and Caribbean, and comes as Washington continues its military build-up in the latter, deploying guided-missile destroyers, F-35 fighter jets, a nuclear submarine and thousands of troops.

The administration has ordered the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its supporting strike group to the region, and it is expected to reach the Caribbean in the coming weeks.

Mr Trump has accused Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro of leading a drug-trafficking organisation, which he denies.

Mr Maduro has repeatedly claimed that the US wants to drive him from power, while some in Venezuela believe the military build-up is aimed at destabilising his government and ultimately forcing regime change in Caracas.

Mr Trump has also authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela.

The Pentagon has provided little information about any of the strikes, including the quantity of drugs the boats allegedly carried and the identities of those killed.

Democrats in Washington have asked whether the attacks comply with the laws of war, while legal experts have asked why the US Coast Guard, the main US maritime law enforcement agency, hasn’t been involved and why other efforts to stop the shipments have not been tried first.

Venezuela’s government says the strikes are illegal, amount to murder, and are acts of aggression.

In August, the Trump administration doubled its reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million (£38m).

US

Warships, the CIA and potential ‘precision attacks’ – the US-Venezuela crisis explained

Published

1 day ago

October 28, 2025

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Warships, the CIA and potential 'precision attacks' - the US-Venezuela crisis explained

US warships in the region, the green light for covert operations, and deadly strikes on what the Trump administration claims are “narco terrorists” – could America’s next move be to strike Venezuela?

President Donald Trump has accused President Nicolas Maduro of leading an organised crime gang (without providing evidence) and declined to answer when questioned if the CIA has the authority to assassinate him.

In return, the Venezuelan leader has accused Mr Trump of seeking regime change and of “fabricating a new eternal war” against his country, as he appealed to the American people for peace.

The rhetoric coming out of the White House, coupled with the presence of military ships in the region, has raised questions about a possible armed conflict between the US and Venezuela.

The question in the air is: Will the US actually attack Venezuela?

What are US warships doing?

The docking of the USS Gravely guided missile destroyer in the capital of Trinidad and Tobago – just 25 miles from the coast of Venezuela – is the latest incident to escalate tensions.

Venezuela’s government condemned the arrival and called it a provocation by Trinidad and Tobago and the US.

The USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier – the largest warship in the world – is also moving closer to Venezuela.

It comes as the US has acknowledged carrying out at least seven strikes since September on vessels near Venezuela that it claims were transporting drugs, killing at least 32 people.

Venezuela’s government says the strikes are illegal, amount to murder, and are acts of aggression.

Earlier this month, Trump confirmed he has authorised the CIA to carry out covert operations – including lethal operations – in Venezuela.

The CIA has a long history of operations in Latin America, with actions varying widely from direct paramilitary engagement to intelligence gathering and support roles with little to no physical footprint.

What could happen?

To get an idea of what could happen next, Sky News spoke to Dr Carlos Solar, an expert on Latin American security at the RUSI defence thinktank.

He says the level of military strategy the US is applying around Venezuela seems “unproportionate” for the task of tackling drug trafficking.

“A build-up this size can only suggest there’s a strategic military goal,” he added.

Dr Solar says the role of the CIA is “not surprising”, as the US often deploys spying capabilities in countries deemed adversarial.

“With the chances of a military conflict looming, having the most intelligence capable on the ground would be reasonable.”

Asked what could happen next, Dr Solar told Sky News: “One scenario is Trump authorises a round of long-range precision attacks in Venezuela’s territory linked to drug trafficking operations, eventually forcing Maduro to reciprocate later.

“We saw this early in the year when the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilitates and Tehran returned missiles to US bases in Qatar.

“If the US decides to move more strongly, destroying all critical military targets from the Venezuelan forces, then the US could have Maduro surrender and leave the country immediately.

“This would be the least disruptive without causing greater destabilisation of the country.”

What does Trump say about Venezuela?

Trump said his reasons for the strikes on vessels were the migration of Venezuelans, allegedly including former prisoners, to the US – and drug trafficking.

“I authorised for two reasons really,” he said. “Number one, they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America…they came in through the border. They came in because we had an open border,” he told reporters. “And the other thing are drugs.”

He has accused Venezuela of trafficking huge amounts of cocaine into the US, and alleged Mr Maduro is the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang – a claim most of his own intelligence agencies do not support.

The US leader has not provided evidence for the claim about prisoners, and Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay pointed out the fentanyl drug that is causing destruction in America is largely manufactured in Mexico, not Venezuela.

“We are looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” Mr Trump added. It is not clear what actions this could entail.

The Pentagon recently disclosed to US Congress that the president has determined the US is engaged in “a non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.

When asked if the CIA has the authority to execute Maduro, which would be a massive intervention, Trump declined to answer. Instead, he said: “I think Venezuela is feeling heat.”

What does Venezuela’s leader say?

Maduro has been in power since 2013, including re-elections in contests marred by accusations of fraud.

The last decade has seen his country gripped by spiralling hyperinflation and a humanitarian crisis that has seen an estimated eight million Venezuelans flee the country.

As the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier moved closer to Venezuela, Maduro accused the US government of “fabricating a new eternal war” against his country.

“They promised they would never again get involved in a war, and they are fabricating a war that we will avoid,” he said in a national address.

“They are fabricating an extravagant narrative, a vulgar, criminal and totally fake one,” he added, perhaps a reference to Trump’s claim that he is the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang and that his country trafficks cocaine into the US.

“Venezuela is a country that does not produce cocaine leaves.”

Tren de Aragua, which traces its roots to a Venezuelan prison, is not known for having a big role in global drug trafficking but instead for its involvement in contract killings, extortion, and people smuggling.

Venezuela has raised a complaint to the UN Security Council and demanded accountability from the US.

US

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs scheduled for release from prison in 2028

Published

1 day ago

October 28, 2025

admin

Sean 'Diddy' Combs scheduled for release from prison in 2028

Sean “Diddy” Combs is expected to spend around three years in prison, federal inmate records show.

The 55-year-old music mogul was given a 50-month sentence and a $500,000 fine earlier this month for flying people around the US and abroad for sexual encounters, including his then-girlfriend and male sex workers, in violation of prostitution laws.

According to Sky News’ US partner NBC News, his expected release date is 8 May 2028, according to the Federal Bureau of Prisons.

Prosecutors had pushed for Combs, serving his first criminal conviction, to serve 11 years in prison.

Combs, who has been detained since his arrest in September 2024, was acquitted on more serious charges of racketeering and sex trafficking.

He pleaded not guilty and maintained his innocence.

‘Disgusting, shameful and sick’

Combs, who told a federal district court in New York he admitted his past behaviour was “disgusting, shameful and sick”, is set to appeal the conviction and sentence.

During a seven-week trial, four days of testimony was heard from Cassie, now Cassie Venture Fine, who told the court she was coerced and sometimes blackmailed into sexual encounters with male workers.

Jurors were also shown video clips of Combs dragging and beating Ms Fine in a Los Angeles hotel hallway, following one of those encounters.

She submitted a letter to the judge, ahead of the sentencing, calling Combs a “manipulator” and would fear for her safety if he was immediately released.