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Inflation-battered shoppers cut back on their holiday spending this year — opening their wallets mainly for “big deals,” according to industry experts and newly released figures.

US retail sales rose just 3.1% year-over-year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 — well short of analyst forecasts of 3.7% and less than half of the 7.6% spike recorded last year, according to Mastercard.

Amazon and Walmart ramped up promotions through November to entice bargain-hunting shoppers, but analysts said the discounts were not as deep as the prior year when retailers were saddled with excess stock after the pandemic.

Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CRFA Research, said many shoppers waited for Black Friday and Cyber Monday to make holiday purchases and finished the final sprint during Super Saturday — the last shopping day before Christmas.

“Consumers are still spending, but they’re still price conscious and want to stretch their budgets,” Sundaram said.

He said the weeks between Cyber Monday and Super Saturday were a “soft period” for spending, but shoppers used the final weekend before Christmas to look for “big deals.”

Online shopping accounted for a large chunk of this year’s holiday spending. According to the Mastercard report, online retail sales jumped by 6.3% year-over-year, while in-store sales rose just 2.2%.

Apparel sales jumped 2.4%, while in-person dining at restaurants soared by 7.8%, according to the report.

There were declines in sales of jewelry (2%) and electronics (0.4%).

Ultimately, it was about getting the most bang for your buck as consumers spent on a variety of goods and services, resurfacing spending trends from before the pandemic, Mastercard senior adviser Steve Sadove said.

Americans have been saddled with soaring prices in recent years though there have been signs inflation is beginning to cool.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) — rose less than expected in November.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.1% compared to October.

That was lower than the 0.2% rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters. The year-over-year increase was 3.2%, lower than Octobers 3.4% gain.

The figures signal that the Fed is winning a nearly two-year battle against inflation and further increase the odds for lower interest rates in the new year.

The Federal Reserve has signaled that it intends to slash interest rates which are currently between 5.25% and 5.5% by as much as 75 basis points in 2024.

Projections from all 19 policymakers that showed near unanimity that borrowing costs would fall next year, many of them by a substantial margin following their latest policy meeting earlier this month, when borrowing costs held steady at their 22-year high.

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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatens Trump-style visa ban on three countries as part of radical asylum reforms

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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatens Trump-style visa ban on three countries as part of radical asylum reforms

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood plans to impose Trump-style visa bans on three African countries if they fail to take back illegal migrants as part of “sweeping reforms” of the UK’s immigration system.

Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo will face visa sanctions, blocking their tourists, VIPs and business people from travelling to Britain if they do not improve co-operation on removals.

Ms Mahmood said: “In Britain, we play by the rules. When I said there would be penalties for countries that do not take back criminals and illegal immigrants, I meant it.

“My message to foreign governments today is clear: accept the return of your citizens or lose the privilege of entering our country.”

The move was reportedly inspired by President Trump’s homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, who has overseen the mass deportation policy in the US, according to The Times.

Ms Mahmood will address the House of Commons today to lay out “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times”, effectively since the Second World War.

Modelled on the Danish system, the aim is to make the UK less attractive for illegal immigrants and make it easier to deport them.

More on Migrant Crisis

Under the plans, the home secretary will bring forward a bill to change how article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), the right to family life, is applied in migration court cases.

The Home Office has said it’s seen a rise in the use of rights-based appeals in recent years as a means of avoiding deportation.

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‘Illegal migration is creating division across UK’ – Shabana Mahmood

The changes would see only those with immediate family in the UK, such as a parent or child, being able to use article 8 in future.

The home secretary, who has been in the job for 73 days, also plans to change the law so that multiple attempts to appeal against refusals for asylum will no longer be allowed.

Furthermore, refugees would face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement.

The Home Office said the “golden ticket” deal has seen asylum claims surge in the UK, drawing people across Europe, through safe countries, on to dangerous small boats.

Under the proposals, refugee status would become temporary and subject to regular review, with refugees removed once their home countries are deemed safe.

Housing and weekly allowances would also no longer be guaranteed.

Mahmood is new hard woman of British politics – and potential successor to Starmer


Amanda Akass

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.

She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.

Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.

“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.

Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.

The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.

Read more

The shake-up also envisages the introduction of safe and legal routes to the UK in a bid to cut dangerous journeys across the Channel.

A new independent body – similar to one in Denmark – is planned to fast-track the removal of dangerous criminals, and last-minute appeals would be expedited.

Ms Mahmood has denied that her plans are “racist”, instead describing them as a “moral mission”.

She said illegal immigration was causing “huge divides” in the UK, adding: “I do believe we need to act if we are to retain public consent for having an asylum system at all.”

What measures is the home secretary set to announce?

  • Refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review – with people facing removal as soon as their home countries are deemed safe
  • Asylum seekers will face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement
  • New safe and legal routes to be introduced for those genuinely fleeing war and persecution
  • Changes to the legal framework that will require judges to prioritise public safety over migrants’ rights to a family life – amid fears that Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights has been used to frustrate removals
  • Using facial age estimation technology, a form of AI ,to rapidly assess a person’s age in a bid to deter people who pretend to be children in an attempt to claim asylum
  • Capped work and study routes for refugees will also be created  

Read more:
Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics
Here’s how the Danish migration model works

Speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Ms Mahmood said she had observed how illegal migration had been “creating division across our country”.

She added: “I can see that it is polarising communities across the country. I can see that it is dividing people and making them estranged from one another. I don’t want to stand back and watch that happen in my country.”

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Govt ‘lacks empathy and understanding’ for refugees

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Britain has always been a fair, tolerant and compassionate country – and this government will always defend those values.

“But in a more volatile world, people need to know our borders are secure and rules are enforced. These reforms will block endless appeals, stop last-minute claims and scale up removals of those with no right to be here.”

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Anti-asylum seeker protest in East Sussex

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch welcomed Ms Mahmood “finally talking seriously about tackling illegal immigration”, but called the plans “weak”.

She said: “If the home secretary actually wants to cut illegal immigration, she should take up my offer to sit down with her and work on a plan that will actually stop the boats, rather than a few weak changes that will meet the approval of Labour MPs.”

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‘Mahmood’s own MPs calling her racist’ – Zia Yusuf

Speaking earlier on Sunday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “The home secretary sounds like a Reform supporter.”

“Sadly with the Human Rights Act and ECHR membership, the changes won’t survive the courts or probably even her own backbenchers,” he added.

The Refugee Council warned that the government would accrue a cost of £872m over 10 years as a result of the need to review asylum seekers’ status to remain in the UK.

Enver Solomon, the charity’s chief executive, insisted the changes “will not deter people from making dangerous crossings, but they will unfairly prevent men, women and children from integrating into British life”.

Latest Home Office figures show 39,075 people have arrived in the UK after crossing the English Channel in small boats so far this year.

The arrivals have already passed the number for the whole of 2024 (36,816) and 2023 (29,437), but the number is below the total for 2022 (45,774).

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Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics – and potential successor to Starmer

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Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics - and potential successor to Starmer

We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.

She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.

Politics latest: Mahmood dismisses ‘tittle-tattle’ over leadership rumours

Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.

“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.

Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Illegal migration is creating division across our country’.

The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.

More on Migrant Crisis

But speaking to Sir Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Ms Mahmood firmly hit back at suggestions today’s announcements are pandering to a racist narrative from the far right.

“It’s not right-wing talking points or fake news or misinformation that is suggesting that we’ve got a problem,” she said.

“I know, because I have now seen this system inside out. It is a broken system. We have a genuine problem to fix. People are angry about something that is real.

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Trevor’s takeaway

“It is my job, therefore, to think of a proper solution to this very real problem, to do so in line with my values as a Labour politician, but also as a British citizen, and to have solutions that work so that I can unite a divided country.”

There are many striking elements to this.

While she’s not been in the job for all that long, her government has been in power for 16 months. Her own press release highlights that over the past full calendar year asylum claims here have gone up by 18% – compared with a drop of 13% elsewhere in the EU.

The UK, she argues, has become a “golden ticket” for asylum seekers due to “far more generous terms” than other countries in Europe.

While she politely insists that her predecessor’s policies – the one in one out deal with France, closer partnership with law enforcement across Europe – are beginning to take effect, the message is clear. No one in office before Shabana has had the stomach to grasp the nettle.

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Inside Europe’s people smuggling industry

The Home Office is determined to present their boss as the new hard woman of British politics.

In a bleak warning to those in her party who will be deeply uncomfortable with this unflinching approach, we’re told she believes this is “the last chance for decent, moderate politics”.

“If these moderate forces fail, something darker will follow…. if you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”

That’s a clear reference to the anti-asylum policies of Reform and the Conservatives, who are pledging to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and deport all illegal arrivals.

Both parties have responded by effectively claiming they don’t trust Labour to deliver on this, given they believe the government has lost control of our borders and overseen a surge in asylum claims.

That much Ms Mahmood herself has already acknowledged.

It’s unusual to hear a Conservative shadow minister like Chris Philp responding to a government announcement by claiming they will support the “sensible steps” the Home Office is making.

Unsurprisingly, he went on to belittle her ideas as “very small steps” combined with “gimmicks” – but the main thrust of his critique was that Labour lacks the authority to push these kinds of measures through parliament, given the likely opposition from their own left wingers.

It’s a fair point – but the lack of fundamental disagreement highlights the threat these plans pose to her opponents.

If the government looks like it might actually succeed in bringing down the numbers – and of course that’s a colossal if – Ms Mahmood will effectively have outflanked and neutralised much of the threat from both the Tories and Reform.

That’s why she’s so keen to mention her Danish inspiration – a centre-left government which managed to see off the threat from right-wing parties through its tough approach to migration, without having to leave the ECHR.

Read more:
Migrants shopping for life jackets: Inside the route to the Channel
Here’s how the Danish migration model works

The Home Office is planning further announcements on new safe and legal routes.

But refugee charities have described the new measures as harsh, claiming they will scapegoat genuine refugees, fail to integrate them into society, and fail to function as a deterrent either.

There will surely be an almighty internal row among Labour MPs about the principle of ripping up the post-war settlement for refugees.

For a government floundering after the political chaos of the last few weeks and months, Ms Mahmood is a voice of certainty and confidence.

At a moment of such intense backroom debate over the party’s future direction, it’s hard to avoid seeing her performance this weekend as a starting pitch for the leadership.

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Sources: Naylor, Mariners reunite on 5-year deal

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Sources: Naylor, Mariners reunite on 5-year deal

First baseman Josh Naylor and the Seattle Mariners are in agreement on a five-year contract, sources told ESPN on Sunday, reuniting one of the best free agent bats available with the team that made re-signing him its top offseason priority.

Acquired at the trade deadline by the Mariners, the 28-year-old Naylor made an immediate impact offensively, defensively and on the basepaths, solidifying a position that had been a weakness for Seattle.

The five-year deal, which is pending a physical, is the first major signing of baseball’s offseason and adds Naylor to a strong Seattle core that helped the Mariners reach Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. He joins AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh, star center fielder Julio Rodriguez and a deep Mariners rotation as they look to reach the first World Series in franchise history.

With his high motor and infectious energy, Naylor immediately found a home in Seattle. In 54 games with the Mariners, Naylor hit .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs, 33 RBIs and 19 stolen bases in 19 attempts. A solid-average defender at first base, he helped the Mariners win their first division title since 2001 and then hit .340 with three home runs in 12 postseason games.

Combined with 93 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, the left-handed Naylor hit .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs, 92 RBIs and a career-high 3.1 WAR. An aggressive hitter with excellent contact skills, Naylor ranked in the top 20 in lowest strikeout rate among qualified batters.

The most shocking part to Naylor’s season: He was 30-for-32 in stolen-base attempts despite registering as one of the slowest runners in the majors, ranking in just the third percentile in sprint speed. Naylor would often get a walking lead off first base and was perfect in stolen-base attempts with Seattle, even as teams became more aware of his tactics.

The Diamondbacks had acquired Naylor last offseason from the Cleveland Guardians, where Naylor hit 31 home runs in 2024 and made the All-Star team. Over his seven-year career, Naylor has hit .269/.329/.447 with 104 home runs, 435 RBIs and 55 steals, appearing in four postseasons.

Originally drafted in the first round as the No. 12 pick by the Miami Marlins in 2015 out of Mississauga, Canada, Naylor is the oldest of three baseball-playing brothers: Bo Naylor, drafted No. 29 in 2018, is a catcher with the Guardians, and younger brother, Myles, was the No. 39 pick in 2023 and is a third baseman in the Athletics‘ system.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield contributed to this report.

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