Rishi Sunak has given the clearest hint yet about when he will call a general election, saying his “working assumption” is that it will happen in the second half of this year.
Speculation has been rife for months about when the prime minister will choose to go to the polls.
Technically, he can wait until December before calling an election, meaning voters would then cast their ballots in January 2025.
But Mr Sunak has narrowed down the timeframe for an election the polls suggest the Tories will lose, which would bring to an end 14 years in power under five prime ministers.
Speaking to broadcasters on a visit to a youth centre in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire, he said: “So, my working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year and in the meantime I’ve got lots that I want to get on with.”
Image: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during a visit to a youth centre in Mansfield
The Conservative leader declined to rule out a May election categorically – but repeated his intentions to call one later in the year.
“I want to keep going, managing the economy well and cutting people’s taxes,” Mr Sunak said.
“But I also want to keep tackling illegal migration. So I’ve got lots to get on with and I’m determined to keep delivering for the British people.”
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Both the Conservatives’ and Labour’s long election campaigns were well under way on Thursday, as both party leaders visited battleground areas.
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‘May election the worst kept secret in parliament’
Labour has claimed a spring vote is the “worst kept secret in parliament”, with party leader Sir Keir Starmer earlier saying in his own speech to voters in Bristol that he is “ready” for a general election whenever it is called.
Responding to Mr Sunak’s remarks which hinted at an autumn vote, Sir Keir accused the prime minister of “delaying” the inevitable.
He told Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby: “People are crying out for change. And I say to the prime minister, what’s he hiding? If he’s not going to set a date, what’s he hiding from the public?
“This has serious implications for the country because he’s basically saying he’s going to be squatting for months and months in Downing Street, dithering and delaying.
“So if he’s not being clear, and I don’t think he’s setting a date, what’s he hiding?”
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‘What’s prime minister hiding from public?’
Asked whether he would prefer a vote in the first half of the year, Sir Keir said: “I would like to see an election as soon as possible.
“I think the vast majority of the public want to see an election as soon as possible, and the reason is that the choice now is to turn our back on 14 years of decline and usher in a decade of national renewal with hope and change.”
He added: “People can’t afford for the prime minister to be squatting for months on end this year.”
The Liberal Democrats have also been calling for Mr Sunak to hold the vote in May rather than trying to “cling on” to power for the rest of the year.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey accused Mr Sunak of “running scared” of a May election.
He said: “Squatter Sunak is holed up in Downing Street, desperately clinging on to power rather than facing the verdict of the British people.
“We need an election in spring, so that voters can finally get rid of this appalling and out-of-touch Conservative government.”
Analysis: PM will be hoping ‘squatting’ charge over election timing won’t stick
The prime minister has thoroughly stolen the thunder and headlines from Sir Keir Starmer’s new year speech with the revelation that his “working assumption” is that a general election will be held in the second half of the year.
Speculation in Westminster had been growing that the Tories were preparing to go to the polls in May – particularly after confirming over Christmas the spring budget would be delivered in March.
Many believed the strategy was for the chancellor to offer a generous series of tax cuts as a sweetening springboard into an early trip to the ballot box.
Pundits pointed out that this would avoid the embarrassing fallout from another drubbing at the local elections and a summer of small boat arrivals – and activists, it’s thought, would be more enthusiastic about pounding the pavements and knocking on doors in milder weather, particularly if they were doing so anyway on behalf of local council candidates.
But with Labour riding so consistently high in the polls and only one of his five pledges met (halving inflation), Rishi Sunak is clearly unconvinced by these arguments.
With the path to a Tory victory at any time of year so incredibly narrow, others believe the PM just wants to maximise his time in office. Indeed, speaking to reporters today he argues he’s still got plenty more to do in terms of “managing the economy well and cutting people’s taxes” as well as “tackling illegal migration”.
Delivering on illegal migration means successfully forcing his emergency Rwanda legislation through both houses of parliament, and past future legal challenges.
It’s the key challenge for Mr Sunak and his team at present; many advisors believe finally getting deportation flights off the ground, combined with a dramatic economic recovery, is perhaps his only real hope of clinging on to power at the next election.
Needless to say the opposition parties aren’t happy.
The Liberal Democrats yesterday called for a return to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, to take away the PM’s power to call elections as the most opportune political moment. They’ve accused Mr Sunak of “bottling” the opportunity to call an election – with echoes of Gordon Brown’s perceived dithering in the autumn of 2007.
Both Sir Ed Davey and Sir Keir say Mr Sunak is “squatting” in Downing Street – with Sir Keir arguing that both he and the country want to see an election as soon as possible.
The PM will be hoping he’s set out his timetable early enough to avoid that charge sticking; but don’t expect the calls for an immediate national vote to calm down any time soon.
Reform UK has ruled out entering into any electoral pacts with the Tories.
Mr Sunak warned against voting for Reform UK amid fears the right-wing party could steal votes from the Conservatives.
He said: “A vote for anybody who’s not a Conservative candidate, a Conservative MP, is a vote for Keir Starmer in power.
“There’s only going to be two options for prime minister after the next election, it’s either going to be me or Keir Starmer. A vote for anyone who is not a Conservative is a vote for Keir Starmer in power.”
He added: “What’s the issue that has motivated a lot of these conversations? It’s illegal migration. So, what’s my track record? Well, I’m the first person to actually cut the numbers, and cut them not just by a little, but cut them by over a third in my first year in power.
“We’re going to pass our Rwanda Bill through parliament, get that scheme up and running, and that will provide the further deterrent we need to grip this once and for all.”
Kemi Badenoch has refused to say that the Conservatives are intending to win next May’s local elections, despite being repeatedly pushed on the issue.
Asked twice to define success for her party at the elections, the Tory leader merely said that she is “going to be fighting for every vote”.
Speaking to Sky News, she added: “Success is going to be people seeing the Conservative Party as the only party that is competent and credible enough to do the tough stuff that this country needs.”
The comments come as the Conservatives continue to trail in the polls.
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Watch Kemi Badenoch’s interview with Sky News in full
New data released by YouGov this morning has put the Tories in third place behind Reform and Labour, a space they have largely occupied throughout the year. The pollster’s weekly voting intention analysis put Ms Badenoch’s party on 18%, down one percentage point.
Image: YouGov’s weekly voting intention poll has the Tories down one percent on last week, and just three above the Greens. Pic: YouGov
Ms Badenoch gave a speech on welfare costs in London on Tuesday, where she attacked the government’s plans to tackle child poverty. Afterwards, she sat down with Sky News political correspondent Sam Coates.
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Asked about the local elections, she said: “There are going to be local elections all over the country, and there’s a conservative message that I want everyone to hear: Our country’s not working properly.
“There are fundamental things that need to change. We need to create jobs. Otherwise, we’re not going to have money for councils.”
She added: “We’ve seen new parties like Reform come in. They’re making a hash of things at council level. We need to make sure that people can see the benefits of voting Conservative.”
Image: Ms Badenoch also refused to score her party’s performance out of 10. Pic: PA
When it was pointed out that she had not defined success as winning the local elections, Ms Badenoch said: “The country is going to decide. We’re going to put out an offer, and we’re going to fight for every vote.”
May will see local council elections, as well as votes for the Senedd in Wales and the Scottish Parliament. They are seen as a crucial moment for the Tory leader – and also for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.
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‘Of course poverty bothers me’
Ms Badenoch also refused to score the party’s performance out of 10, as the year draws to a close, and she marks a little over 12 months as leader.
She told Sky News: “When I look at the historic defeats which Conservatives suffered last year, things are definitely better.”
Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, a member of the US Senate Banking Committee and one of the most prominent proponents for addressing digital asset market structure in Congress, said she wants to take the next step in advancing the bill sometime next week.
Speaking at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit on Tuesday, Lummis said she anticipated that the markup hearing for the Responsible Financial Innovation Act — the Banking Committee’s version of market structure — would happen before Congress broke for the holidays.
The senator said the crypto industry “was getting a little concerned” about the progress of the bill, adding that drafts were “changed so much every few days” during bipartisan discussions.
“Our staffs are exhausted,” said Lummis, referring to her and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s teams. “I think that we’re to the point where it’s better to go ahead with a product and mark it up next week and then give everybody a break over the Christmas break to catch their breath.”
Senator Cynthia Lummis (center) speaking at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit on Tuesday. Source: Blockchain Association
She added:
“My goal […] is to share a draft at the end of this week that is our best efforts [sic] to date and let industry vet it, let Republicans and Democrats vet it, and then go to markup next week.”
A markup hearing involves lawmakers considering amendments and changes before a bill is sent to the Senate for a vote.
Although the banking committee released a discussion draft of the market structure bill in July, after the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the US House of Representatives, progress was slowed by the longest government shutdown in the country’s history and reports of pushback from some lawmakers over DeFi provisions in the bill.
A Monday report from Politico signaled that bipartisan negotiations over market structure were proceeding with plans for a markup in December. Lummis said in September that she expected the bill to be signed into law by 2026.
However, it’s unclear whether Republicans’ timeline will pan out. Even if senators were to proceed with a markup, other obstacles — such as partisan pushback — could lengthen the time for a vote.
What will a US market structure bill mean for the crypto industry?
Although the bill has yet to work its way through the Senate Banking Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee, many in the crypto industry have been championing Congress’ efforts to advance the legislation, citing clarity and benefits to the market.
“More and more finance will move onchain under the leadership of [SEC Chair Paul Atkins] once a market structure is passed into law by Congress,” said Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal on Wednesday. “Our leaders need to align on the last details in the bill without delay […].”
Although the final version of the bill to be considered by the US Senate was not public at the time of publication, previously released drafts indicated that it would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission more authority over digital assets. This would represent a significant change from the Securities and Exchange Commission essentially handling regulation and enforcement.
Major tokenization platform Securitize has doubled down on its push to bring tokenized equity to US investors, naming a former PayPal executive as its new general counsel.
Securitize on Tuesday announced the appointment of ex-PayPal executive Jerome Roche, who led the company’s expansion into digital asset projects, including the PayPal USD (PYUSD) stablecoin.
“There’s been a perception that tokenized securities must be offered primarily outside the US, but our experience shows the opposite,” Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo told Cointelegraph.
“Clear regulatory path” for tokenized stocks in the US
According to Securitize, operating real-world asset (RWA) tokenization offerings inside the US regulatory perimeter is “not only possible, but scalable, at institutional quality.”
“We’ve demonstrated that there is a clear regulatory path for issuers to natively tokenize assets for US investors,” Domingo said.
“These are not synthetic representations, or derivatives, but real securities onchain,” the CEO said, adding:
“We operate using SEC-regulated infrastructure, including a registered transfer agent broker-dealer, and fund admin, which allows US investors to access and legally hold tokenized securities in a fully compliant framework.”
Securitize’s optimistic outlook on the US tokenization comes days after the platform obtained regulatory approval to operate as an investment company and a trading ánd settlement system in the European Union on Nov. 26. According to the company, the approval positioned it as one of the first operators for regulated digital securities infrastructure in both the US and EU.
Source: Securitize
“For the first time, modern ledger technology is giving us the ability to record ownership, settle transactions, and move value in ways that are fundamentally better than the fragmented systems we’ve inherited,” Securitize’s newly appointed general counsel, Roche, said in the announcement.
“Innovation only works when it fits squarely within the guardrails of applicable law,” he added, underscoring Securitize’s global push for regulated tokenized securities.
Securitize’s news is another sign of the US warming to tokenization. On Monday, the Securities and Exchange Commission dropped its investigation into rival tokenization platform Ondo Finance.
Ondo said the decision marks a new chapter for tokenized securities in the US, where they are poised to become a “core part of the capital markets.”