This year’s US election will shape the rest of the world – buckle up

Published

2 years ago

January 4, 2024

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Maybe my perspective is skewed, overconsumption of global events perhaps, but it feels to me unnervingly like we’re nearing a perfect storm right now.

Out of a chaotic global pandemic, humanity seems to have lurched into deeply uncertain times.

We tend to struggle to focus on more than one crisis at a time, but we are facing them on multiple fronts.

While headlines have focused on the Middle East these past few months, war in Ukraine has been grinding on, our climate continues to warm at alarming rates, AI has been coming on leaps and bounds, and behind all that, democratic structures we have taken for granted are being tested to their limits.

That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.

The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.

That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.

Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.

Buckle up

As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.

My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.

There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.

The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.

More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.

As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.

But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.

The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.

A Trumpian return

We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.

Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.

The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.

Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.

The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.

This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.

We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.

Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.

His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.

The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?

Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.

How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.

Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?

What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?

Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.

But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.

Global events shaped by small-town America

In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.

Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.

Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.

Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.

The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.

America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.

Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.

US

Who was Charlie Kirk? The young MAGA influencer ‘admired’ by Trump

Published

27 mins ago

September 11, 2025

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Who was Charlie Kirk? The young MAGA influencer 'admired' by Trump

Right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk has died after being shot while speaking to a large crowd on a university campus in Utah.

He was speaking to students about mass shootings on Wednesday when he was shot in the neck, leading students to flee and triggering a manhunt for the killer.

The 31-year-old Trump faithful was used to scores of people listening to him, both in person and online, as he advocated for conservatism among younger generations and became a leading voice in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

“No one understood or had the Heart of the Youth in the United States of America better than Charlie. He was loved and admired by ALL, especially me, and now, he is no longer with us,” the president wrote on Truth Social after his death.

But who was Charlie Kirk, what were his views and how did he become so influential?

From high school protests to the president’s ally

Despite being younger than many of his contemporaries, Mr Kirk, born in Chicago in 1993, had been a staple of the right for some time.

His first taste of activism came when he and a classmate launched a protest against the rising price of food at his high school cafeteria. Soon after, as a high school senior, he wrote an opinion piece for the conservative news site Breitbart, in which he discussed liberalism in textbooks.

It catapulted him into politics, helping him get appearances on Fox News and at right-wing rallies, where he soon met activist Bill Montgomery.

Live updates on manhunt for Kirk’s killer

They co-founded Turning Point USA, a non-profit aimed at mobilising college-age Republicans, when Mr Kirk was just 18, in 2012.

Turning Point would soon attach itself to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in 2016, and went on to become a hugely successful entity, raising hundreds of millions of dollars as it helped build a coalition of young conservatives around the country.

The group’s website says it has 450 members of staff and presences in 3,000 high schools and college campuses.

While the organisation thrived, Mr Kirk became the young face of the MAGA movement on social media platforms, pushing Mr Trump’s big points, including his false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.

A day before the January 6th riots in 2021, he wrote on X that he was organising for “buses of patriots” to Washington to “fight for the president”.

At the time of his death, father-of-two Mr Kirk had become one of the biggest online voices on the American right, with 7.3 million followers on TikTok, 7 million on Instagram, 5 million on X and 3.5 million on YouTube.

His podcast, The Charlie Kirk Show, is downloaded between 500,000 and 750,000 times each day, according to NBC News, and consistently charts highly on Spotify and Apple.

His influence was not lost on Mr Trump.

He often spoke favourably about Mr Kirk, including multiple times on the campaign trail last year.

During a rally in Washington, the day before he was sworn in for a second term in January, Mr Trump told attendees: “Charlie Kirk is here. And I want to thank Charlie. Charlie is fantastic. I mean, this guy.”

He also appeared last October at a Turning Point USA political rally in Phoenix, saying: “I want to express my tremendous gratitude to Charlie Kirk. He’s really an amazing guy. Amazing guy.”

Kirk shot while holding debate on mass shootings

He was fierce in his right-wing views and a strong communicator, making him a polarising figure.

Critics accused him of promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories on issues including COVID-19, climate change and the 2020 US election.

Yet Mr Kirk, however firm his beliefs, was always keen to hear opinions he disagreed with, often setting up “prove me wrong” tables at university events where people were encouraged to challenge his views.

He would regularly debate left-wing students on contentious topics like gun control, free speech LGBTQ+ rights and abortion rights.

It was during one of his “prove me wrong” segments at Utah Valley University – this one centred on mass shootings – that he was shot.

His friend Hogan Gidley, who was deputy press secretary for Mr Trump between 2019 and 2020, says what Mr Kirk did for MAGA and for conservatism is “unparalleled”.

“At the same time, what he did to try to showcase the importance of discussion, just getting out there and saying your ideas, that’s what’s unbelievable,” he adds, speaking to Sky’s Trump 100 podcast.

“He kind of paved the way for so many in the younger generation to say, you don’t have to be violent, you can use your words, you can use information, you can use data… he was a pioneer in that way.”

Mr Kirk’s own death was entirely against what he stood for, Mr Gidley says.

“He changed some hearts, he changed some minds – he made people angry,” he says. “But that’s OK, because that’s part of discussion and honest debate.

“What this devolved into… was something that was violent and that was disgusting and deplorable. It has no place in American politics, but debate and discussion absolutely do and Charlie Kirk led that way.”

Trump ‘filled with grief and anger’

Friends, admirers and those on the other side of politics have been paying tribute to Mr Kirk.

Among them has been the president, who hailed him as a “great, and even legendary” figure who was “loved and admired by all, especially me”.

In a video message, he said: “I am filled with grief and anger at the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk.

“He inspired millions and tonight all who knew him and loved him are united in shock and horror.

“This is a dark moment for America,” Mr Trump added, as he vowed a crackdown on “political violence”.

Tributes have also come from former liberal presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama.

“This kind of despicable violence has no place in our democracy,” Mr Obama said. “Michelle and I will be praying for Charlie’s family tonight, especially his wife Erika and their two young children.”

What is happening now?

A manhunt is under way for Mr Kirk’s killer, which began on the university campus but has now extended beyond.

Two people were arrested after the shooting, but neither was determined to have any connection with the shooting and were later released, according to Utah public safety officials.

As of late on Wednesday, no one was in custody, but the authorities are searching for a new person of interest.

“This is a dark day for our state. It’s a tragic day for our nation,” said Utah governor Spencer Cox. “I want to be very clear, this is a political assassination.”

US

Charlie Kirk: Suspect believed to be male ‘of college age’ but his location still unknown, FBI says

Published

2 hours ago

September 11, 2025

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Charlie Kirk: Suspect believed to be male 'of college age' but his location still unknown, FBI says

The suspect in the killing of Charlie Kirk has been confirmed as a male who “appears to be of college age”, authorities have said, as a manhunt continues.

In a briefing in Orem, Utah, on Thursday, FBI agent Robert Bohls said while authorities are not sure where or how far the suspect may have gone, they have pictures of his face which they may release in the future.

Kirk, a right-wing influencer, was shot dead on Wednesday while hosting a debate among university students. He died in hospital after being shot, authorities said.

Follow the latest updates on Charlie Kirk’s killing

Beau Mason, commissioner of the Department of Public Safety, said the suspect “appears to be of college age” and “blended in well with a college institution”.

“We are confident in our abilities to track that individual,” he added.

“If we’re unsuccessful in identifying them immediately, we will reach out for the public’s help and the media’s help in pushing those photos.”

Mr Mason reiterated “we are doing everything we can to find him”, but added: “We’re not sure how far he has gone yet”.

The weapon suspected of being used in the shooting has been found.

Mr Bohls said: “I can tell you that we have recovered what we believe is the weapon that was used in yesterday’s shooting… is a high-powered bolt action rifle.

“That rifle was recovered in a wooded area where the shooter had fled. The FBI laboratory will be analysing this weapon.”

Mr Bohls added that they also found an “impression of a palm print and forearm imprints for analysis”.

Kirk, a Trump faithful, was used to scores of people listening to him, both in person and online, as he advocated for conservatism among younger generations and became a leading voice in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

President Donald Trump paid tribute to Kirk while on stage at a 9/11 memorial event in Virginia, saying he would be awarding him the presidential medal of freedom.

“Before we begin, let me express the horror and grief so many Americans at the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk have felt,” Mr Trump said.

“Charlie was a giant of his generation, a champion of liberty and an inspiration to millions and millions of people. Our prayers are with his wonderful wife, Erika, and his beautiful children.”

The president said “we miss him greatly” and added that he has no doubt his voice and “the courage he put into the hearts of countless people will live on”.

US

Who was Charlie Kirk? A MAGA spokesman to young people across America

Published

3 hours ago

September 11, 2025

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Who was Charlie Kirk? A MAGA spokesman to young people across America

For many young people on the right of American politics, Charlie Kirk was an icon.

He was 31-years-old, a media personality, podcaster, an author and the founder of Turning Point USA.

The non-profit organisation champions conservative politics in schools, colleges and university campuses. It has been described as one of the fastest-growing organisations of its types in America.

He had a huge following with his podcast consistently charting in the top 20.

According to NBC News, The Charlie Kirk Show is being downloaded between 500,000 and 750,000 times each day. It consistently charts highly on Spotify and Apple.

Across social media, he had a huge following with more than 7.3 million followers on TikTok, seven million on Instagram, five million on X and 3.5 million on YouTube.

A popular political activist, he spent much of his time travelling to college campuses across the country, encouraging debate and promoting conservative values.

A big supporter of President Trump and somewhat of a MAGA spokesman to young people across America, he publicly promoted conservative, Trump-aligned causes and often debated with people opposed to his views.

Born in Chicago in 1993, he was attracted to politics early, volunteering for the US Senate campaign of Illinois Republican Mark Kirk (no relation) during his high school years.

He was accused by critics of promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories on issues including COVID-19, climate change and the 2020 US election.

Responding to the January 6th 2021 riots on Capitol Hill, he said it was not an insurrection but that the rioters did not represent the mainstream of Mr Trump’s support.

A day before the riots, in support of what he believed to be a stolen election, he wrote on X that he was organising for “buses of patriots” to Washington to “fight for the president”.