This year’s US election will shape the rest of the world – buckle up

Published

11 months ago

January 4, 2024

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Maybe my perspective is skewed, overconsumption of global events perhaps, but it feels to me unnervingly like we’re nearing a perfect storm right now.

Out of a chaotic global pandemic, humanity seems to have lurched into deeply uncertain times.

We tend to struggle to focus on more than one crisis at a time, but we are facing them on multiple fronts.

While headlines have focused on the Middle East these past few months, war in Ukraine has been grinding on, our climate continues to warm at alarming rates, AI has been coming on leaps and bounds, and behind all that, democratic structures we have taken for granted are being tested to their limits.

That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.

The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.

That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.

Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.

Buckle up

As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.

My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.

There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.

The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.

More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.

As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.

But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.

The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.

A Trumpian return

We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.

Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.

The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.

Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.

The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.

This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.

We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.

Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.

His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.

The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?

Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.

How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.

Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?

What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?

Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.

But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.

Global events shaped by small-town America

In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.

Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.

Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.

Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.

The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.

America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.

Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.

US

Civility at the White House as Trump sends Washington into an evening tailspin

Published

3 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Civility at the White House as Trump sends Washington into an evening tailspin

At the White House on Wednesday, a hugely anticipated moment – the beginning of the transfer of power between two such fierce foes.

It was a moment of history, a moment of symbolism. It could have stoked bitterness and glee, but there was no sign of either.

However, it was not the biggest moment of the day. That came later.

For a second consecutive night, remarkable names have emerged for the people Donald Trump wants in his White House.

After Tuesday night’s news that Fox News host and former National Guard Major, Pete Hegseth, had been chosen by Mr Trump to be the next defence secretary, on Wednesday night came another Trump bombshell – and it sent establishment eyebrows beyond orbit.

‘A gonzo agent of chaos’

Firebrand, ultra-Maga loyalist Matt Gaetz has been announced as Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general, the country’s top law enforcement official.

This was entirely unexpected and sent Washington into an evening tailspin.

Veteran Democratic senator Chris Murphy declared the announcement to be “a red alert moment for our democracy”.

Representative Jim Himes, who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, told CNN the role of attorney general requires “…care, prudency, a deep respect for the rule of law… Matt Gaetz is the opposite of all of those things, he is a gonzo agent of chaos”.

Gaetz, 42, has faced multiple allegations of wrongdoing, including a federal sex trafficking probe that ended without charges against him.

A related House ethics inquiry is ongoing but would be dropped if he were to leave Congress because it only has jurisdiction in that forum.

He has never worked as a prosecutor and has only worked in law for a few years at local level.

His nomination requires the approval of Congress. Even with a Republican majority in both houses, Gaetz may struggle. He is not popular among more traditional Republican politicians.

For Donald Trump, the choice reflects precisely the vision he outlined for the Justice Department – a department that will do his bidding with no sense of independence or objectivity.

It is an intentionally provocative pick of a proud provocateur. On brand to a tee and it is the product of American democracy.

The White House transition

Earlier in the day, Donald Trump’s private jet touched down at Joint Base Andrews on the edge of Washington DC. The cameras caught it passing the parked presidential jets on the tarmac – the planes that will be flying him again soon.

The president-elect’s staff were framing this flight to Washington as a triumphant return. On social media, one senior adviser set the images of the landing to the sound of Kanye West’s Homecoming.

It was back to the future for the comeback president.

As he descended the steps of “Trump Force One”, I’d have given more than a penny for the inner thoughts of the man.

Surely, for him, this moment was a neat two fingers for the many who said he never would; that he never could.

But he did. Four years ago he was a busted flush in the eyes of the Washington establishment; a liability to them exiled to Mar-a-Lago. He had lost the White House and his party had failed to win either house of congress.

Four years on, he won back the White House, taking every one of America’s swing states, and his party has won both houses of Congress – a clean sweep. And he did it all despite the court cases, the warnings that he is a threat to the democracy of the nation.

Love him or loathe him, admire him or fear him, his return on Wednesday to the White House to begin the transition to be America’s 47th president is a stunning political turnaround.

Anticipating this moment of transition, this moment in history, the cameras of the world were there.

The incoming president was a few minutes late for his appointment with the outgoing president. They met in the Oval Office in front of a roaring fire that was, for sure, warmer than the vibe in the room.

A handshake and civility

For all the anticipation – what would it be like? The body language? The mood?

If Donald Trump was gleeful, he didn’t show it. If Joe Biden was bitter, he didn’t show it either.

Two men who have such starkly different visions shook hands. Two men who have exchanged such brutal words for each other over the course of many years now smiled and exchanged pleasantries.

“A danger to democracy,” Joe Biden has said of Donald Trump so many times. Well, now the process of democracy required this moment: a handshake and civility.

President Biden surely wanted to give Donald Trump what he never offered four years ago: a concession of defeat and a transition.

Remember, in 2020, there was no Oval Office moment. Instead, Donald Trump was denying he had lost the election.

It was the outgoing press secretary left to describe the details of the two-hour meeting.

“I can say that it was indeed very cordial, very gracious and substantive. And I mentioned at the top, national security was discussed, domestic policy issues were discussed.”

By nightfall, the White House had released the official photos of the meeting. They are images for the ages.

It is almost as if the last few years never happened.

A reset? No.

A pause for posterity, before the new world begins.

US

Joe Biden welcomes Donald Trump at White House for transition of power meeting president was never offered

Published

6 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Joe Biden welcomes Donald Trump at White House for transition of power meeting president was never offered

US President Joe Biden greeted Donald Trump at the White House saying “welcome back”, as the two political rivals met for the first time since a fiery debate in June.

Mr Biden and Mr Trump were seen exchanging pleasantries as they sat side by side in front of a roaring fire in the Oval Office today, in a meeting aimed at ensuring the smooth transfer of power from one leader to another.

It is the first time the president-elect has visited the White House since he left the Oval Office after being defeated by Mr Biden in the 2020 election.

“Donald, congratulations,” Mr Biden said, greeting Mr Trump with a handshake and adding that he looked “forward to a smooth transition”.

“Welcome, welcome back,” the president said.

Trump-Biden latest: Follow US election fallout live

The president-elect thanked Mr Biden for the invitation and for a peaceful transition of power saying it will be “as smooth as it can get”.

Mr Trump added: “Politics is tough, and it’s many cases not a very nice world, but it is a nice world today, and I appreciate very much a transition that’s so smooth it’ll be as smooth as it can get, and I very much appreciate that, Joe.”

The last time Mr Trump and Mr Biden met in person was for the presidential debate on 27 June, when the Democrat’s gaffes cost him his candidacy.

Mr Biden dropped out a few weeks later in July, endorsing vice president Kamala Harris to run in the presidential race instead.

First lady Jill Biden also made an appearance at the meeting, greeting the president-elect as he arrived at the White House and giving him a “handwritten letter of congratulations” for his wife, Melania Trump, a statement from her office said.

The letter also “expressed her team’s readiness to assist with the transition”.

The incoming first lady was invited to meet Dr Biden, but reportedly declined the invitation.

The meeting follows the longstanding tradition of outgoing presidents meeting their successors to discuss a smooth transition from one administration to the other.

However, Republican Mr Trump failed to give the same opportunity to Mr Biden in 2020 as he refused to accept his defeat against his Democratic rival.

Today’s nearly two-hour meeting between Mr Biden and the president-elect saw them discuss foreign affairs, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and the safe release of Israeli hostages captured by Hamas during the militant group’s 7 October attack on southern Israel last year.

Mr Biden stressed the importance of supporting Ukraine as it fights off Russia’s full-scale invasion, the White House said, amid concerns that Mr Trump would follow through with threats to cut US aid to Kyiv.

The White House said Mr Biden’s team is open to working with Mr Trump’s on securing the release of Israeli hostages, which, along with a ceasefire in Gaza, has been the focus of negotiations between Israel and Hamas and their mediators.

It also said the Biden administration had secured extra commitments from Israel in the past couple of days over the situation in Gaza, where a 13-month war has caused the death of more than 43,000 people, Palestinian health officials say.

Mr Trump, who previously won the keys to the White House when running against Hillary Clinton in 2016, will be sworn in as president on 20 January following his decisive election win against Ms Harris last week.

Sky News’ US partner network NBC News has projected the Republicans have retained control of the House of Representatives.

It means all levers of power in Washington are now under Mr Trump and his party’s control, having also secured the Senate.

They will also be backed by a Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority, including three justices appointed by the president-elect.

Earlier today, Mr Trump met with billionaire Elon Musk earlier today before he celebrated his victory with Republicans in the House of Representatives.

“Isn’t it nice to win? It’s nice to win. It’s always nice to win,” Mr Trump said. “The House did very well.”

Mr Trump received a standing ovation from House Republicans, many of whom took videos of him as he ran through their party’s victories up and down the ballot, in what would be his final presidential election.

“I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say ‘he’s good, we’ve got to figure something out’,” Mr Trump said to laughter.

US

Video shows white orb coming out of ocean off Kuwait coast, major UFO hearing in US Congress told

Published

9 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Video shows white orb coming out of ocean off Kuwait coast, major UFO hearing in US Congress told

A video showing a “white orb” UFO coming out of the ocean off Kuwait has been found on the US Department of Defense’s own network, a congressional hearing has heard.

Giving evidence to House representatives on unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs), the now-preferred term for UFOs, journalist Michael Shellenberger said he had been told of the footage by a source in recent weeks.

As it happened: Latest updates from the hearing

Mr Shellenberger, the founder of the Public news service, said the 13-minute-long high-definition, colour video was of the “orb” 20 miles off the Kuwait coast and was filmed from a helicopter.

“Then, halfway through the video, the person said, the orb is joined by another orb that briefly comes into the frame from the left before rapidly moving again out of the frame.”

He said the source discovered the video on SIPR, the Secure Internet Protocol Router Network that the Department of Defense “uses to transmit classified information”.

One particularly eye-catching moment saw representative Nancy Mace, who served as the hearing’s co-chair, bring out a 12-page document purporting to detail a classified UAP crash-retrieval programme known as Immaculate Constellation.

‘Come at me bro, I guess’

The report had been delivered to Congress by Mr Shellenberger who told the hearing a whistleblower, who is a current or former US government official, wrote the report that said “the executive branch has been managing UAP issues without congressional knowledge, oversight, or authorisation for some time, possibly decades”.

After entering the document into the Congressional record, Ms Mace said she had been warned that referencing the programme’s name in a public setting would land her “on a list”, to which she said: “Come at me bro, I guess.”

The hearing was named “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena: Exposing the Truth”, and is part of a committee’s ongoing efforts to provide more information about what the government knows or does not know about UAPs.

The House Oversight Committee’s Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Information Technology and Government Innovation was told that objects, including those observed performing at more than 3,000Gs, have been spotted over US military and energy sites.

The representatives heard the objects could travel faster underwater than US submarines and could withstand massive force.

‘We are not alone in the cosmos’

Luis Elizondo, a former defence department official, was asked whether these objects could be controlled via a “mind-body connection”, to which he answered they were clearly being “intelligently controlled”.

“The vehicles we’re talking about… are performing in excess of 1,000, 2,000, 3,000Gs,” he said, adding that they react to human movement and are incredibly manoeuvrable.

“We are talking about technologies that outperform anything in our [military] inventory,” he said.

Mr Elizondo also said there was “definitely enough data” to suggest that there is “some sort of relationship” between UAPs and “sensitive US military installations, also some of our nuclear equities and also some of our department of energy sites”.

He later clarified this could be because the UAPs, or whoever or whatever is operating them, are particularly interested in gaining information about the sites, or it could simply be because there is increased visibility in such sensitive areas that more are spotted.

Mr Elizondo said “excessive secrecy” has led to “grave misdeeds… to hide the fact that we are not alone in the cosmos”.

We are “in the midst of a multi-decade, secretive arms race - one funded by misallocated taxpayer dollars and hidden from our elected representatives and oversight bodies,” Mr Elizondo stated during his testimony.

Members also heard that the US had recovered crashed UAPs for the purpose of understanding how to reverse-engineer them, but witnesses said they could not elaborate further.

Last year, the House Oversight Committee also looked into UFOs, with at least one witness claiming a Pentagon cover-up – something the department denied.

In November 2023, NASA announced it was taking “concrete action” to explore the potential threat of UFOs following the release of a landmark report into the phenomena.

A 33-page report had found that NASA should play a larger role in detecting such phenomena.