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Tennessee has started the process of hiking its EV registration fee from $100 to $274 per year and beyond, aiming to continue hiking the fees in perpetuity, further increasing the disproportionately high taxes paid by EVs in the state as compared to gas cars.

We’ve covered many times before how misguided these taxes are, not least of which because they are the result of a cynical lobbying ploy by the oil industry to disadvantage a better transportation method.

Tennessee’s $100 fee was lower than that of many other states, but it still taxed EVs at a much higher rate than a similarly-efficient gas vehicle. For example, a ~140mpg gas car, if it existed, would pay ~$28 in gas taxes in a year if driven 15k miles, but a 140mpge EV, which there are multiple of, used to pay $100 even if it was low mileage. As a flat fee, it also adds a small disincentive for drivers to remain low mileage, which doesn’t help with congestion or road usage.

This year, Tennessee’s EV fee has doubled to $200 – but it’s not stopping there, with the state claiming that it will continue increasing to $274 in 2026, and then continue increasing beyond that along with inflation. Tennessee lawmakers and the Department of Transportation commissioner had asked to raise the fee to $300, which would have tripled the already-disproportionate fees that EVs pay.

But one big issue here is: inflation was not 100% last year, and won’t be 37% in the next two years. These hikes are well beyond inflation, on top of a fee that was already too high per the calculations above.

Not only that, but the gas tax has not been indexed to inflation in Tennessee. In fact, the gas tax has lagged inflation significantly, getting smaller over time in comparison to the value of a dollar. You can see a history of Tennessee gas taxes here, showing that drivers used to pay 7 cents per gallon in 1931, but only pay 26 cents now (plus a “1.4-cent special petroleum fee“). If gas taxes had kept up with inflation since then, they would be $1.42 per gallon – meaning they’re ~5.4x too low, compared to inflation.

But that’s because gas taxes didn’t go up for 50 years in Tennessee, until there was a measly 2 cent bump in 1981. Starting our calculations from that year, gas taxes are a lot closer to keeping up with inflation, but still should be about 20% higher than they currently are – and that’s without accounting for 2023’s inflation or the next few years’ worth which will be captured by this near-tripling of EV fees.

What’s worse, this year’s tax hikes were not well publicized, and many Tennessee EV drivers were left in shock with a doubling of fees from one year to the next.

If this trend keeps, then the gulf between TN’s gas tax and EV tax would continue to increase, becoming more and more unfair to EV drivers who already pay more than if they were driving a similarly-efficient gas vehicle, and much more than the amount of damage they’re doing.

The rationale for Tennessee’s tax is similar to those in other states – Tennessee is laboring under the misguided notion, propagated by Koch/fossil fuel industry propaganda, that electric vehicles don’t pay for roads. But in fact, the vehicles that are doing damage to roads also don’t pay for the damage they’re causing to roads – gas + license taxes only cover ~60% of Tennessee’s road costs, which means that fossil-powered vehicles are freeloading on at least a third of the road budget anyway.

And in actuality, virtually all road damage is done by diesel semi trucks anyway, not gas or electric cars, so road damage has little to do with passenger vehicles. An average EV does tens of thousands of times less damage to roads than a semi truck over the course of the year, so if a $274 fee is considered fair for an EV, then semi trucks should be paying registration fees in the millions of dollars – and if the latter sounds too high, then simple math means one must also acknowledge that the former is too high, if road damage is the main concern.

On top of this, gas taxes certainly don’t pay for the immense damage that burning gasoline causes, which cost society about $4 per gallon burned. The total cost of subsidies to dirty energy in America, a large portion of which goes to gasoline for motor vehicle use, was $760 billion in 2022. Few states even attempt to correct for this subsidy, with only a few having any sort of pollution pricing scheme. So gas vehicles are freeloading on our lungs even moreso than they’re freeloading on the roads.

The real solution, as ever, is to implement a drivetrain-agnostic road fee that takes into account weight and mileage, and another drivetrain-agnostic pollution fee to correct for the damage that each vehicle causes in pollution (these can be added to energy costs, tire costs, etc.). But instead, Tennessee would rather bow to fossil fuel propaganda and attempt to balance its entire road budget by overtaxing the 22,040 EVs in the state instead of implementing a long-term solution that might make gas cars (and diesel trucks) start paying their fair share.

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Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency

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Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is to officially join Trump’s administration as the co-head of the new US Department of Government Efficiency – a second federal department with the goal of making government spending more efficient.

You can’t get more ironic than that.

Throughout the elections, Musk, who is already CEO of Tesla, and SpaceX, a well as the defacto head of X, xAI, Neuralink, and the Boring Company, has been floating the idea to add to his workload by joining the Trump’s administration to lead a new department aimed at making the federal government more efficient.

He has been calling it the “Department of Government Efficiency”, which spells out ‘DOGE’, a meme that Musk appears to enjoy.

Well, now Trump appears to want to be going through with this idea.

He announced the new department and Musk as head, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, in a statement today:

I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”). Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies – Essential to the “Save America” Movement. “This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people!” stated Mr. Musk.

What’s most ironic is that there’s already a federal department with the goal of cutting government waste and ensuring efficiency: the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

The GAO’s main objectives are:

  • auditing agency operations to determine whether federal funds are being spent efficiently and effectively;
  • investigating allegations of illegal and improper activities;
  • reporting on how well government programs and policies are meeting their objectives;
  • performing policy analyses and outlining options for congressional consideration;
  • issuing legal decisions and opinions;
  • advising Congress and the heads of executive agencies about ways to make government more efficient and effective

It sounds similar to what Musk described when talking about his DOGE, but Trump hasn’t gone into many details other than it will “cut waste.”

He also has a confusing message as he compares the initiative, which is supposed to cut government spending, to “The Manhattan project”, a massive and expensive government project.

Trump said that DOGE will help the government “drive large scale structural reform”:

It will become, potentially, “The Manhattan Project” of our time. Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of “DOGE” for a very long time. To drive this kind of drastic change, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.

The statement also noted that DOGE will only operate until July 4, 2026.

Musk has previously claimed that he could cut at least $2 trillion dollars of the $6.5 trillion dollar US federal budget.

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Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

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Oil could plunge to  in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024. 

Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.

“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.

“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.

A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.

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Oil prices year-to-date

Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC. 

Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”

However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.

Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.

Martoccia Francesco

Energy strategist at Citi

The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.

In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September. 

At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.

Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.

The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.

Bearish year ahead for oil

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Have you had a ride in a driverless vehicle?

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Have you had a ride in a driverless vehicle?

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