US economy adds 216,000 jobs in December, far more than expected

Published

1 year ago

January 5, 2024

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US employers added 216,000 jobs in December, a surprisingly strong increase that fuels doubt as to when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates this year.

Last month’s payroll growth came in over November’s higher-than-expected 199,000 advance — and well ahead of the 170,000 economists expected, according to Refinitiv data.

The figure marks an average monthly payroll gain of 232,000 over the previous 12 months — a strong figure considering the economy was gripped with stubbornly high inflation and the highest borrowing rate Americans have seen in 22 years.

It reinforces the notion that the Feds not going to be in a rush to cut rates. former New York Fed President William Dudley told Bloomberg on Friday.

Dudley added that the economys doing pretty well and that May is more likely for the Fed to start cutting.

“Theyll need to see some signs that the economy is slowing,” Dudley said. “The wage trend for now is something that is likely concerning to policymakers.”

The Labor Department said employment continued to trend up in government, which saw the biggest gain of 52,000 in December — followed by health care, social assistance, and construction, the Labor Department said on Friday.

Only two industries lost jobs: transportation and warehousing, which dipped 23,000 last month.

The Labor Department’s data revised November’s payroll gains down by 26,000, while October’s figure was revised down by 45,000.

The Fed has lifted the benchmark federal funds rate to a 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, in hopes of tamping down inflation to its highly-coveted 2% target.

But at the minutes of its December meeting released Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials indicated that interest rates were at or near their peak when they voted to leave the rate unchanged last month but offered few clues as to when they might implement cuts.

Almost all participants indicated that a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024, said the minutes, with a number of participants highlighting increased uncertainty about how long strict monetary policy would need to be maintained.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday also noted that the unemployment rate stayed the same, at 3.7%, a tick lower than the 3.8% rate Refinitiv economists also predicted.

Average hourly earnings — a key measure of inflation — increased 15 cents, or 0.4% for the month, to $34.27. Over the past 12 months, hourly earnings are up 4.1%.

The wage advance comes just after New York’s minimum-wage pay bump took effect, lifting the minimum wage in New York City, Long Island, and Westchester County $1, from $15 to $16.

In the remainder of New York State — which is one of 22 states getting minimum wage hikes in the new year — the new minimum wage is $15, up from $14.20.

A separate report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that job openings unexpectedly slowed to 8.7 million at the end of November, the lowest level since March 2021.

The figure marks a decrease from the downward revised 9.3 million openings reported the previous month, a signal of shaky confidence in the job market.

Though the dip came out of the blue for economists, it backs up data recently released by American employment website Indeed, which found that as of Dec. 29, 2023, open positions on the site declined more than 15% from a year earlier.

Following the release of the latest Consumer Price Index in November — which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services and showed that US inflation rose 3.1% — Fed chair Jerome Powell said the historic tightening of monetary policy is likely over.

Powell dovetailed the report with projections from all 19 policymakers that showed near unanimity that borrowing costs would fall in 2024 — as many as three times.

While Fed policymakers did not want to take another rate hike off the table, it is no longer the central banks base case, he said in remarks made in a press conference following the end of the central banks final policy meeting of 2023.

December’s CPI report is set to be released on Jan. 11.

Central bankers will decide on whether or not to keep interest rates steady, between 5.25% and 5.5%, following their next two-day meeting, which will conclude on Jan. 31.

World

Trump just wants a Ukraine-Russia deal – will Putin or Zelenskyy blink first?

Published

45 mins ago

March 20, 2025

admin

Trump just wants a Ukraine-Russia deal - will Putin or Zelenskyy blink first?

The tone has changed totally. It’s a remarkable turnaround from the Oval Office meltdown to the perfect phone call.

President Trump is wholly transactional. His desire for give and take far outweighs any ideological instincts. He has no particular alignment to Ukraine or, for that matter, to Russia.

He just wants a deal. Peace would stop the killing as he has said repeatedly. It would also allow for deals which can benefit America: recouping the taxpayer money spent on Ukraine and reconnecting the American economy with Russia.

But trumping all that is his legacy and his image. He wants to be seen as the peacemaker president.

Since the Oval Office moment, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy seems now to have recognised all that.

Ukraine’s approach towards Trump has changed. Zelenskyy is now playing his game: transactionalism.

The minerals deal hasn’t dissolved. The indications I am getting is that it’s essentially been upgraded and broadened to a wider scope: fuller economic cooperation.

Zelenskyy needs to encourage America deep into his country economically. Has he bought into the idea that a US economic footprint amounts to a key part of a security guarantee?

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The old adage is: “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.” That’s too true with President Trump.

Zelenskyy now feels like he’s at the table and I am told he doesn’t feel coerced.

The challenges remain huge though: he doesn’t trust Putin. That’s what he tried to tell President Trump in the Oval Office. The performance that day proved to him that Trump is inclined to trust Putin.

Zelenskyy must use transactionalism to draw an impatient Trump in.

President Trump is in a hurry for a deal. He’s inclined to accept wholly disingenuous commitments from Russia, or as one source put it to me: “Trump has a high tolerance for bullshit…”

That’s the jeopardy for Zelenskyy.

US

Trump just wants a Ukraine-Russia deal – will Putin or Zelenskyy blink first?

Published

45 mins ago

March 20, 2025

admin

The tone has changed totally. It’s a remarkable turnaround from the Oval Office meltdown to the perfect phone call.

President Trump is wholly transactional. His desire for give and take far outweighs any ideological instincts. He has no particular alignment to Ukraine or, for that matter, to Russia.

But trumping all that is his legacy and his image. He wants to be seen as the peacemaker president.

Since the Oval Office moment, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy seems now to have recognised all that.

Ukraine’s approach towards Trump has changed. Zelenskyy is now playing his game: transactionalism.

The minerals deal hasn’t dissolved. The indications I am getting is that it’s essentially been upgraded and broadened to a wider scope: fuller economic cooperation.

Zelenskyy needs to encourage America deep into his country economically. Has he bought into the idea that a US economic footprint amounts to a key part of a security guarantee?

👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈

The old adage is: “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.” That’s too true with President Trump.

Zelenskyy now feels like he’s at the table and I am told he doesn’t feel coerced.

Zelenskyy must use transactionalism to draw an impatient Trump in.

President Trump is in a hurry for a deal. He’s inclined to accept wholly disingenuous commitments from Russia, or as one source put it to me: “Trump has a high tolerance for bullshit…”

That’s the jeopardy for Zelenskyy.

US

Trump 100, Day 60: Zelenskyy and the ‘perfect’ phone call

Published

45 mins ago

March 20, 2025

admin

Trump 100, Day 60: Zelenskyy and the 'perfect' phone call

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From an Oval Office explosion to a “perfect phone call”, Donald Trump has spoken to Volodymyr Zelenskyy – just hours after his conversation with Vladimir Putin.

On Day 60, US correspondents James Matthews, Martha Kelner and Mark Stone discuss what’s happened to the minerals deal and ask: could the US take control of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure?

And as a constitutional showdown brews in America, Trump takes aim at the judiciary, calling for judges who block his policies to be removed. With tensions rising between the executive and judicial branches, could America be heading toward a crisis of power?

If you’ve got a question you’d like James, Martha and Mark to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

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