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Rishi Sunak has kicked off 2024’s political season with a hint at when the next general election will be – saying it’s his “working assumption” it will happen in the second half of the year.

Speculation has been rife for months about when the prime minister will choose to go to the polls, with some pundits believing he would call one in May to coincide with the local elections.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, so the next one must take place by 28 January 2025 at the latest.

This is five years from the day the current parliament first met (17 December 2019), plus the time required to run an election campaign.

The phrase “working assumption” does give Mr Sunak wriggle room should circumstances change, and he has not ruled out a spring election.

Sky News spoke to pollsters about the factors the prime minister will be weighing up in making his decision – and when they think the election should be.

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When will the next general election be?

“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told us.

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He said the National Insurance tax cut announced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in November will “take time to filter through”, as will the “perception inflation is really on its way down”.

He added that the Conservatives are “still carrying the burden of the events of 2020 to 2022, and they need to put them as far away as possible”.

Lord Hayward predicts the Tory party conference in October will be the “launchpad for the election”, meaning voters will be casting their ballots “probably on 14 November or around that date”.

With a US election set for 5 November, that would mean the campaigns on each side of the Atlantic colliding – a scenario that has not happened in decades.

Officials in Whitehall are said to have warned Downing Street against this because of “security risks”.

However, Lord Hayward said while the US election may be of “slight concern” he doesn’t believe it will be a “deciding factor” in when we go to the polls.

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Sunak ‘squatting’ in No 10

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy’

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher has predicted a slightly earlier date of late September or early October – though he says Mr Sunak may “wait and see” how the first half of the year plays out.

He said: “The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Sir Keir Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election.

“A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

Prof Thrasher said the outcome of the May local elections could affect the timing of when the prime minister sends voters to the polls.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy,” Prof Thrasher said.

“The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable, and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

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But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini-budget – all against the backdrop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

PM ‘may call election for 14 November’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS, and the government needs time to make progress in these areas.

Like Lord Hayward, he believes Mr Sunak may fire the starting gun for the election in his speech to close the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham on 2 October, which “could mean an election on 14 November”.

He said all parties are holding their conferences earlier than usual this autumn, with the Tory one happening last – perhaps giving an insight into the prime minister’s thinking.

He was never convinced by the May election rumours – saying it is unlikely Mr Sunak “would risk” cutting a two-year term to 18 months for an election he is expected to lose.

“At the moment, there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.”

So where did the May rumours come from?

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

There have been signs recently the government is at least keeping the door open for the possibility of a spring election.

The National Insurance cut announced in the autumn statement is coming into effect in January, rather the start of the new tax year in April, while the spring budget is being held earlier than usual – prompting speculation of a May election off the back of tax giveaways to boost the Tories’ chances of victory.

Shadow frontbencher Emily Thornberry even told Sky News recently that a May election was “Westminster’s worst kept secret”.

That may no longer be the case, but some strategists believe it may be in the Tory party’s best interests to go early in order to stem losses.

Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, warned there are costs of holding onto power.

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

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UK is ‘desperate for an election’

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

Read more:
Sir Keir Starmer says he will take on Rishi Sunak in general election TV debates
A delay in Rishi Sunak calling the election is the last thing Sir Keir Starmer needs

He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.”

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Labour have accused Mr Sunak of “squatting in Downing Street” by refusing to call an election earlier.

They have been preparing for office for some time and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

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However, Sir John believes the leaks of a spring election were designed purely “to keep the Opposition on their toes… creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose, but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

So does this mean Mr Sunak could even wait until January 2025 to go to the polls?

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” Sir John said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”

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Live music venues warn of ‘devastating consequences’ of budget tax changes in letter to Sir Keir Starmer

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Live music venues warn of 'devastating consequences' of budget tax changes in letter to Sir Keir Starmer

Tax changes announced in the budget could have “devastating, unintended consequences” on live music venues, including widespread closures and job losses, trade bodies have warned.

The bodies, representing nearly 1,000 live music venues, including grassroots sites as well as arenas such as the OVO Wembley Arena, The O2, and Co-op Live, are calling for an urgent rethink on the chancellor’s changes to the business rates system.

If not, they warn that hundreds of venues could close, ticket prices could increase, and thousands could lose their jobs across the country.

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Business rates, which are a tax on commercial properties in England and Wales, are calculated through a complex formula of the value of the property, assessed by a government agency every three years. That is then combined with a national “multiplier” set by the Treasury, giving a final cash amount.

The chancellor declared in her budget speech that although she is removing the business rates discount for small hospitality businesses, they would benefit from “permanently lower tax rates”. The burden, she said, would instead be shifted onto large companies with big spaces, such as Amazon.

But both small and large companies have seen the assessed values of their properties shoot up, which more than wipes out any discount on the tax rate for small businesses, and will see the bills of arena spaces increase dramatically.

More on Budget 2025

In the letter, coordinated by Live, the trade bodies write that the effect of Rachel Reeves’s changes are “chilling”, saying: “Hundreds of grassroots music venues will close in the coming years as revaluations drive costs up. This will deprive communities of valuable cultural spaces and limit the UK creative sector’s potential. These venues are where artists like Ed Sheeran began their career.

“Ticket prices for consumers attending arena shows will increase as the dramatic rise in arena’s tax costs will likely trickle through to ticket prices, undermining the government’s own efforts to combat the cost of living crisis. Many of these arenas are seeing 100%+ increases in their business rates liability.

“Smaller arenas in towns and cities across the UK will teeter on the edge of closure, potentially resulting in thousands of jobs losses and hollowing out the cultural spaces that keep places thriving.”

The full letter from trade bodies to the prime minister.
Image:
The full letter from trade bodies to the prime minister.

They go on to warn that the government will “undermine its own Industrial Strategy and Creative Sector Plan which committed to reducing barriers to growth for live events”, and will also reduce spending in hotels, bars, restaurants and other high street businesses across the country.

To mitigate the impact of the tax changes, they are calling for an immediate 40% discount on business rates for live venues, in line with film studios, as well as “fundamental reform” to the system used to value commercial properties in the UK, and a “rapid inquiry” into how events spaces are valued.

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Sky’s Jess Sharp explains how the budget could impact your money

In response, a Treasury spokesperson told Sky News: “With Covid support ending and valuations rising, some music venues may face higher costs – so we have stepped in to cap bills with a £4.3bn support package and by keeping corporation tax at 25% – the lowest rate in the G7.

“For the music sector, we are also relaxing temporary admission rules to cut the cost of bringing in equipment for gigs, providing 40% orchestra tax relief for live concerts, and investing up to £10m to support venues and live music.”

The warning from the live music industry comes after small retail, hospitality and leisure businesses warned of the potential for widespread closures due to the changes to the business rates system.

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Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby challenged Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on the tax rises in the budget.

Sky News reported after the budget that the increase in business rates over the next three years following vast increases in the assessed values of commercial properties has left small retail, hospitality and leisure businesses questioning whether their businesses will be viable beyond April next year.

Analysis by UK Hospitality, the trade body that represents hospitality businesses, has found that over the next three years, the average pub will pay an extra £12,900 in business rates, even with the transitional arrangements, while an average hotel will see its bill soar by £205,200.

Read more: Hospitality pleads for ‘lifeline’

A Treasury spokesperson said their cap for small businesses will see “a typical independent pub pay around £4,800 less next year than they otherwise would have”.

“This comes on top of cutting licensing costs to help more venues offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping corporation tax,” they added.

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Rachel Reeves acknowledges damage of ‘too many’ budget leaks

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Rachel Reeves acknowledges damage of 'too many' budget leaks

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves has acknowledged there were “too many leaks” in the run-up to last month’s budget.

The flow of budget content to news organisations was “very damaging”, Ms Reeves told MPs on the Treasury select committee on Wednesday.

“Leaks are unacceptable. The budget had too much speculation. There were too many leaks, and much of those leaks and speculation were inaccurate, very damaging”, she said.

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The cost of UK government borrowing briefly spiked after news reports that income taxes would not rise as first expected and Labour would not break its manifesto pledge.

An inquiry into the leaks from the Treasury to members of the media is to take place. But James Bowler, the Treasury’s top official, who was also giving evidence to MPs, would not say the results of it would be published.

Committee chair Dame Meg Hillier asked if the group of MPs could see the full inquiry.

More on Budget 2025

“I’d have to engage with the people in the inquiry about the views on that”, replied Mr Bowler, permanent secretary to the Treasury.

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OBR leak ‘a mistake of such gravity’

The entire contents of the budget ended up being released 40 minutes early via independent forecasters, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

A report into this error found the OBR had uploaded documents containing their calculations of budget numbers to a link on the watchdog’s website it had mistakenly believed was inaccessible to the public.

Tax rises ruled out

The chancellor ruled out future revenue-raising measures, including applying capital gains tax to primary residences and changing the state pension triple.

Committee member and former chair Dame Harriet Baldwin had noted that the chancellor’s previous statement to the MPs when she said she would not overhaul council tax and look at road pricing, turned out to be inaccurate.

During the budget, an electric vehicle charge per mile was introduced, as was an additional council tax for those with properties worth £2m or more.

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Strategy responds to MSCI letter, makes case for index inclusion

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Strategy responds to MSCI letter, makes case for index inclusion

Strategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company, submitted feedback to index company MSCI on Wednesday about the proposed policy change that would exclude digital asset treasury companies holding 50% or more in crypto on their balance sheets from stock market index inclusion.

Digital asset treasury companies are operating companies that can actively adjust their businesses, according to the letter, which cited Strategy’s Bitcoin-backed credit instruments as an example.

The proposed policy change would bias the MSCI against crypto as an asset class, instead of the index company acting as a neutral arbiter, the letter said.

Bitcoin Regulation, Stocks, MicroStrategy
The first page of Strategy’s letter to the MSCI pushes back against the proposed eligibility criteria change. Source: Strategy

The MSCI does not exclude other types of businesses that invest in a single asset class, including real estate investment trusts (REITs), oil companies and media portfolios, according to Strategy. The letter said:

“Many financial institutions primarily hold certain types of assets and then package and sell derivatives backed by those assets, like residential mortgage-backed securities.”

The letter also said implementing the change “undermines” US President Donald Trump’s goal of making the United States the global leader in crypto. However, critics argue that including crypto treasury companies in global indexes poses several risks.