Russia and Ukraine are running out of munitions – but one has a significant advantage | Sean Bell

Published

1 year ago

January 6, 2024

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Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.

Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.

However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.

Ukraine-Russia war – latest updates

Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.

However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.

No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.

Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.

But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.

By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.

To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.

Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.

In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.

Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.

So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.

Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.

Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.

Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.

Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.

However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.

Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.

An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?

The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.

World

At least 85 Palestinians killed in Gaza strikes, local health authorities say

Published

5 hours ago

March 20, 2025

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At least 85 Palestinians killed in Gaza strikes, local health authorities say

Israeli strikes killed at least 85 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip overnight and into Thursday, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Five UN staff members have also been killed, according to the head of the UNRWA.

It comes as fighting in the enclave has restarted in recent days.

Philippe Lazzarini, head of UNRWA, the United Nations Palestinian relief agency, said on Thursday: “In the past few days, another five UNRWA staff have been confirmed killed, bringing the death toll to 284.

“They were teachers, doctors and nurses: serving the most vulnerable.”

He added he feared “the worst is yet to come”.

“Under our daily watch, people in Gaza are again and again going through their worst nightmare,” he said in a statement.

“An endless unleashing of the most inhumane ordeals.”

Speaking in Parliament, Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the UK government opposed the resumption of Israel’s hostilities and added that a British national was among the wounded when a UN compound was struck on Wednesday.

Israel has previously said it only targets militants and blames civilian deaths on Hamas because it operates in densely populated areas.

It denied previous reports it had targeted a UN compound.

Israel resumes strikes

On Tuesday, Israel resumed heavy airstrikes on the enclave killing more than 400 people, bringing to a halt the ceasefire that had paused fighting in the 17-month war.

A day later, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) relaunched ground operations, seizing part of a key corridor that divides the north and south of Gaza – the Netzarim corridor.

On Thursday, the IDF said it had begun a ground operation in northern Gaza.

Meanwhile, Hamas fired three rockets at Israel without causing casualties.

It was the first such attack since the resumption of the IDF’s strikes.

Hospitals across Gaza said the strikes hit houses in Khan Younis and Rafah in southern Gaza and the northern town of Beit Lahiya.

The Israeli military said it was looking into the reports.

The European Hospital in Rafah said 26 people, mostly women and children, had been killed in strikes on two family homes overnight.

A father and his seven children were killed in one of the attacks, it added.

The Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis received the bodies of seven people killed overnight in an attack on a home, it said.

Meanwhile, Hamas said talks with mediators were ongoing.

Fragile ceasefire

Hamas and Israel disagreed over how to proceed with the ceasefire after phase one came to an end.

The militant group wanted to move onto phase two to negotiate Israel’s permanent withdrawal from Gaza, the release of hostages in exchange for more prisoners and an eventual end to the war.

Israel wanted to temporarily extend phase one and for more hostages to be released.

It cut off all supplies to Gaza to try and pressure the group into doing so before restarting its military campaign.

The war started after Hamas militants attacked Israeli communities in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages.

More than 49,000 Palestinians have been killed in the ensuing conflict, according to Gaza’s health authorities,

World

Trump just wants a Ukraine-Russia deal – will Putin or Zelenskyy blink first?

Published

11 hours ago

March 20, 2025

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Trump just wants a Ukraine-Russia deal - will Putin or Zelenskyy blink first?

The tone has changed totally. It’s a remarkable turnaround from the Oval Office meltdown to the perfect phone call.

President Trump is wholly transactional. His desire for give and take far outweighs any ideological instincts. He has no particular alignment to Ukraine or, for that matter, to Russia.

He just wants a deal. Peace would stop the killing as he has said repeatedly. It would also allow for deals which can benefit America: recouping the taxpayer money spent on Ukraine and reconnecting the American economy with Russia.

But trumping all that is his legacy and his image. He wants to be seen as the peacemaker president.

Since the Oval Office moment, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy seems now to have recognised all that.

Ukraine’s approach towards Trump has changed. Zelenskyy is now playing his game: transactionalism.

The minerals deal hasn’t dissolved. The indications I am getting is that it’s essentially been upgraded and broadened to a wider scope: fuller economic cooperation.

Zelenskyy needs to encourage America deep into his country economically. Has he bought into the idea that a US economic footprint amounts to a key part of a security guarantee?

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The old adage is: “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.” That’s too true with President Trump.

Zelenskyy now feels like he’s at the table and I am told he doesn’t feel coerced.

The challenges remain huge though: he doesn’t trust Putin. That’s what he tried to tell President Trump in the Oval Office. The performance that day proved to him that Trump is inclined to trust Putin.

Zelenskyy must use transactionalism to draw an impatient Trump in.

President Trump is in a hurry for a deal. He’s inclined to accept wholly disingenuous commitments from Russia, or as one source put it to me: “Trump has a high tolerance for bullshit…”

That’s the jeopardy for Zelenskyy.

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Donald Trump has ‘very good’ call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in which he discusses US ownership of Ukrainian energy plants

Published

20 hours ago

March 20, 2025

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Donald Trump has 'very good' call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in which he discusses US ownership of Ukrainian energy plants

US President Donald Trump has had a “very good” call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the White House says, during which US ownership of Ukraine’s energy network was discussed to help protect it.

Mr Trump also agreed to “help locate” additional air defence support in Europe after a request from the Ukrainian leader, a statement about the one-hour phone call said.

Further talks will take place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in the coming days, and the US will continue intelligence sharing with Ukraine, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

Mr Trump also agreed to work to ensure missing Ukrainian children are returned home and both parties agreed to a temporary 30-day ceasefire involving attacks against energy facilities, with the US president saying the US “could be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise”, Ms Leavitt said.

Secretary of state Marco Rubio also issued a statement about the call saying that “President Trump also discussed Ukraine’s electrical supply and nuclear power plants.

“He said that the United States could be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise. American ownership of those plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure and support for Ukrainian energy infrastructure.”

The White House statement added that Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy also reviewed the situation in Kursk and agreed to share information closely.

The presidents instructed their teams to move ahead with the details of implementing a partial ceasefire, with discussions to include expanding any ceasefire to the Black Sea.

Could US nuclear power takeover replace the minerals deal?

By David Blevins, Sky correspondent, in Washington DC

The readout of the call from President Zelenskyy was conciliatory, repeatedly thanking Donald Trump for military support and for his peace efforts.

In agreeing to a partial ceasefire, he held out the prospect of US investment in Ukrainian power – perhaps deeming that more of a security guarantee than the minerals deal.

“American ownership of those plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure and support for Ukrainian energy infrastructure,” the Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz readout of Trump-Zelenskyy call said.

Trump agreed to continue sharing intelligence but when Zelenskyy asked for additional air defence, he said he’d see what was available in Europe.

That’s a vague response from the US president as he seeks to keep both Ukraine and Putin on board.

Those ambiguous words and the change in tone are both indicative of the sensitive point they’ve reached days before fresh negotiations in Saudi Arabia.

“We have never been closer to peace,” Ms Leavitt added.

In comments later on Wednesday, Mr Zelenskyy said that Mr Trump understands that Ukraine will not recognise occupied land as Russian, and that he would like the US president to visit Ukraine – adding that “it would be helpful for Trump in his peace efforts”.

In an earlier statement, President Zelenskyy said the two leaders had “a positive, very substantive and frank conversation”.

Mr Zelenskyy echoed much of Mr Trump’s statement about what was decided, and said later that he “felt no pressure” from the US president.

“We agreed that Ukraine and the United States should continue working together to achieve a real end to the war and lasting peace. We believe that together with America, with President Trump, and under American leadership, lasting peace can be achieved this year,” Mr Zelenskyy said

He added that Ukraine would “continue working to make this happen”.

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“I stressed that Ukrainians want peace, which is why Ukraine accepted the proposal for an unconditional ceasefire,” he said. “I highlighted the importance of President Trump’s concept of peace through strength. We agreed to maintain constant contact, including at the highest level and through our teams.”

In an earlier post on Truth Social, Mr Trump said the “very good” phone call lasted around one hour.

“Much of the discussion was based on the call made yesterday with President Putin in order to align both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs,” Mr Trump said.

“We are very much on track,” he added.

The call marks the first time Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy have spoken since the disastrous confrontation in the White House last month.

Mr Zelenskyy travelled to Washington expecting to sign a critical minerals deal but left early after he and Trump clashed in front of the world’s cameras.

On Tuesday, Mr Trump and Vladimir Putin held a phone call lasting about an hour and a half in which the Russian leader rejected a full 30-day ceasefire.

He agreed to not attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days. The two countries also swapped 175 prisoners each earlier this morning.