Russia and Ukraine are running out of munitions – but one has a significant advantage | Sean Bell
Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.
Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.
However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.
Ukraine-Russia war – latest updates
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Zelenskyy: ‘Evil will be defeated’
Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.
However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.
No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.
Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.
But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.
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What went wrong for Ukraine in 2023?
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Ukraine: What you missed in 2023
By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.
To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.
Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.
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Russian hypersonic ballistic missile attack
In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.
Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.
So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.
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Russian airstrikes target Kyiv
Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.
Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.
Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.
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Moment Kyiv building explodes
Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.
However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.
Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.
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Proposal after prisoner exchange
An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?
The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.
World
Evan Gershkovich: US journalist seen with shaved head as he goes on trial in Russia for spying
Evan Gershkovich has been seen with a shaved head as he went on trial behind-closed-doors in Russia accused of spying.
Reporters were allowed to briefly film the US journalist on Wednesday before the start of the hearing in the city of Yekaterinburg where he is charged with espionage, which he denies.
Mr Gershkovich was seen standing in a glass box wearing a black-and-blue checked shirt before the proceedings were closed.
The 32-year-old’s trial is to take place behind closed doors. Pic: Reuters
The next hearing was set for 13 August.
The Wall Street Journal reporter was first arrested and detained in March 2023 after Russia claimed he had been “gathering secret information” on orders from the CIA.
The 32-year-old reporter, who has already spent nearly 15 months behind bars in Moscow’s notorious Lefortovo jail, faces up to 20 years in prison if found guilty.
Russian courts convict more than 99% of the defendants who come before them, and prosecutors can appeal sentences they regard as too lenient, and can even appeal acquittals.
Last week, the first details of the allegations against him emerged as it was claimed he was seeking details about Uralvagonzavod, a facility that produces and repairs military equipment, the prosecutor general’s office said.
The authorities have not publicly disclosed any evidence to back up the accusations.
The trial is due to take place behind closed doors – something Russia says is normal in espionage cases.
Mr Gershkovich, his employer and the US government strongly deny the claims and Washington has designated him wrongfully detained.
Jay Conti, executive vice president and general counsel for Dow Jones, which publishes the Journal, described the trial as a sham, saying: “He was an accredited journalist doing journalism, and this is a sham trial, bogus charges that are completely trumped up.”
“Evan has done nothing wrong. He should never have been arrested in the first place. Journalism is not a crime,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said last week.
He added: “The charges against him are false. And the Russian government knows that they’re false. He should be released immediately.”
The reporter makes a heart-shaped gesture at a previous court appearance. Pic Reuters
The White House has sought to negotiate Mr Gershkovich’s release, but Russia’s foreign ministry said Moscow would consider a prisoner swap only after a trial verdict.
However, that could be months away, because Russian trials often adjourn for weeks.
While Russia-US relations are fraught over the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin and Washington did agree a high-profile prisoner exchange in 2022 that secured the release of basketball star star Brittney Griner, who was serving a lengthy sentence for cannabis possession.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested Mr Gershkovic could be swapped in return for the release of Vadim Krasikov, a Russian imprisoned in Germany for assassinating a Chechen rebel leader in Berlin.
However, this would require the cooperation of Germany in a Russia-US dispute.
Mr Gershkovich, the American-born son of immigrants from the former Soviet Union, was the first US journalist detained on espionage charges since Nicholas Daniloff in 1986 at the height of the Cold War.
It followed a crackdown on freedom of speech after Mr Putin sent troops into Ukraine.
Newly released footage shows the search for missing British teenager Jay Slater continues by both land and air.
The search for the 19-year-old from Lancashire, who is missing in Tenerife, has now entered its tenth day.
He has been missing since Monday 17 June.
The friends he was holidaying with last heard from him at around 8.30am that day.
He told them he planned to walk back to his accommodation after missing a bus – a journey of around 11 hours by foot.
The search currently centres on Masca, a mountainous area on the western tip of the island.
The village, which is home to around 90 inhabitants, lies at an altitude of 650m, and is where Mr Slater is believed to have been when he was last heard from.
Pic: Guardia Civil/X
Pic: Guardia Civil/X
Search continues
The footage from Spanish police comes after Mr Slater’s father said the family were being kept in the dark by some officers.
It shows a helicopter searching the mountainous area, with search teams on foot having been joined by sniffer dogs.
They then enter a wooded area and proceed to search the mountainous region.
In one clip, an officer uses binoculars to try and see if there are any signs of the missing teen.
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Jay Slater’s dad has said police have left him and his family in the dark over the hunt for the missing teen.
The 35-second montage of clips was posted on the X social media platform on the Guardia Civil account.
“We continue with the search for the young British man missing in Tenerife,” police said in the post on Tuesday night.
“Different Guardia Civil units from the area participate, joined by agents, with their dogs specialised in searching for people, from Madrid.”
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But The Times reports that the dogs have not been given a piece of Mr Slater’s clothing for them to pick up a scent.
Cadaver dogs have been trained to pick up the scent of human remains without the need for a specific prompt.
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Mayor Emilio Jose Navarro told the Reuters news agency that some locals have been interviewed by police.
That includes some who claim they saw Mr Slater watching Euro matches on the coast.
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has pleaded guilty to one count of espionage as part of a plea deal with US authorities.
His court appearance took place on the US territory of Saipan. He left the UK on Monday after being released on bail from Belmarsh high security jail.
Addressing the court, Assange said that he broke US law by encouraging classified leaks, but said he believed the Espionage Act violates free speech.
As per the deal, the judge sentenced Assange to time already served in a British prison and told him he would be able to leave court a free man.
The US request to extradite the WikiLeaks founder on spying charges has been dropped and he is now on his way to his home country of Australia to be reunited with his wife Stella and their two children, Gabriel and Max.
Mrs Assange posted on X after her husband walked out of court: “Julian walks out of Saipan federal court a free man. I can’t stop crying.”
Julian Assange, middle, leaves the court in Saipan. Pic: Reuters
Julian Assange leaves the federal court. Pic: AP
WikiLeaks said Assange is expected to arrive in the Australian capital of Canberra at 6.41pm local time (9.41am GMT).
The 52-year-old arrived at court in a dark suit, with a loosened tie, after flying from Stansted Airport in London on a charter plane and stopping to refuel in Bangkok.
The flight cost him $500,000 (£394,000) with Mrs Assange calling for “emergency” donations to cover the “massive debt” for the jet.
She said her husband was “not permitted to fly commercial airlines or routes to Saipan and onward to Australia” and any contribution would be “much appreciated”.
Inside court, Assange answered basic questions from judge Ms Manglona and appeared to listen intently as terms of the deal were discussed.
Read more:
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Plea deal marks end of a transatlantic tug of war
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Assange arriving at court. Pic: Reuters
A map showing Julian Assange’s journey from the UK to Australia
As a condition of his plea, he will be required to destroy information that was provided to WikiLeaks.
Assange left court in a white SUV without speaking to reporters, but his lawyer Jennifer Robinson said it was because of support around the globe that “today’s outcome is possible”.
Assange didn’t speak to reporters as he left court. Pic: Reuters
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Julian Assange’s father awaits son’s arrival
She said: “Julian has suffered for more than 14 years because of risk of extradition to the US… today he pleaded guilty to an offence for having published information in the public interest… this sets a dangerous precedent, this prosecution sets a dangerous precedent.”
Thanking Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Ms Robinson said he “did what he needed to do to ensure Julian’s freedom”.
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Julian Assange released from prison
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Mr Albanese has publicly supported Assange as leader of the Australian Labour Party and as prime minister. He said in a statement earlier on Wednesday: “Regardless of what your views about Mr Assange’s activities, his case has dragged on for too long.
“There is nothing to be gained from his continued incarceration and we want him brought home to Australia.”
The hearing took place in Saipan – the US Commonwealth territory – because of Assange’s opposition to travelling to one of the 50 US states and the court’s proximity to Australia.
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The US department of justice said following his sentencing, Assange will leave the US and will be “prohibited from returning” without permission.
American prosecutors had alleged Assange put lives at risk when he helped former US Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning steal diplomatic cables and military files WikiLeaks put online in 2010.
He had been locked in a legal battle in the UK over his extradition, which included him entering the Ecuadorean Embassy in London in 2012 prior to his detention in Belmarsh – where he had been since May 2019.
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