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Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.

Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.

However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.

Ukraine-Russia war – latest updates

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Zelenskyy: ‘Evil will be defeated’

Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.

However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.

No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.

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Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.

But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.

Read more:
Ukrainian drones ‘shot down over Crimea’
Analysis: Deadly attacks are bad omens for 2024
What went wrong for Ukraine in 2023?

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Ukraine: What you missed in 2023

By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.

To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.

Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.

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Russian hypersonic ballistic missile attack

In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.

Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.

So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.

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Russian airstrikes target Kyiv

Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.

Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.

Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.

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Moment Kyiv building explodes

Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.

However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.

Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.

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Proposal after prisoner exchange

An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?

The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.

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Israel announces military operation expanding in Gaza to seize ‘large areas’

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Israel announces military operation expanding in Gaza to seize 'large areas'

Israel is beginning a major expansion of its military operation in Gaza and will seize large areas of the territory, the country’s defence minister said.

Israel Katz said in a statement that there would be a large scale evacuation of the Palestinian population from fighting areas.

In a post on X, he wrote: “I call on the residents of Gaza to act now to remove Hamas and return all the hostages. This is the only way to end the war.”

He said the offensive was “expanding to crush and clean the area of terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and capture large areas that will be added to the security zones of the State of Israel”.

The expansion of Israel’s military operation in Gaza deepens its renewed offensive.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that had begun in January ended in March as Israel launched various air strikes on targets across Gaza.

The deal had seen the release of dozens of hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, but collapsed before it could move to phase two, which would have involved the release of all hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

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26 March: Anti-Hamas chants heard at protest in Gaza

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had already issued evacuation warnings to Gazans living around the southern city of Rafah and towards the city of Khan Yunis, telling them to move to the al Mawasi area on the shore, which was previously designated a humanitarian zone.

Israeli forces have already set up a significant buffer zone within Gaza, having expanded an area around the edge of the territory that had existed before the war, as well as a large security area in the so-called Netzarim corridor through the middle of Gaza.

This latest conflict began when Hamas launched an attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages.

The ensuing Israeli offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

Read more:
Father demands protection after Gaza aid workers’ deaths
Anti-Hamas chants heard at rare protest in Gaza

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Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza

Aid group Doctors Without Borders warned on Wednesday that Israel’s month-long siege of Gaza means some critical medications are now short in supply and are running out, leaving Palestinians at risk of losing vital healthcare.

“The Israeli authorities’ have condemned the people of Gaza to unbearable suffering with their deadly siege,” said Myriam Laaroussi, the group’s emergency coordinator in Gaza.

“This deliberate infliction of harm on people is like a slow death; it must end immediately.”

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‘Liberation day is here’: But what will it mean for global trade?

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'Liberation day is here': But what will it mean for global trade?

“Liberation day” was due to be on 1 April. But Donald Trump decided to shift it by a day because he didn’t want anyone to think it was an April fool.

It is no joke for him and it is no joke for governments globally as they brace for his tariff announcements.

It is stunning how little we know about the plans to be announced in the Rose Garden of the White House later today.

It was telling that we didn’t see the President at all on Tuesday. He and all his advisers were huddled in the West Wing, away from the cameras, finalising the tariff plans.

Follow the events of Liberation Day live as they unfold

Three key figures are central to it all.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the so-called ‘measured voice’. A former hedge fund manager, he has argued for targeted not blanket tariffs.

Peter Navarro is Trump’s senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing. A long-time aide and confidante of the president, he is a true loyalist and a firm believer in the merits of tariffs.

More on Donald Trump

His economic views are well beyond mainstream economic thought – precisely why he appeals to Trump.

‘Stop that crap’: Trump adviser Peter Navarro reacts to Sky News correspondent’s question over tariffs

The third key character is Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary and the biggest proponent of the full-throttle liberation day tariff juggernaut.

The businessman, philanthropist, Trump fundraiser and billionaire (net worth ranging between $1bn and $2bn) has been among the closest to Trump over the past 73 days of this presidency – frequently in and out of the West Wing.

If anything goes wrong, observers here in Washington suspect Trump will make Lutnick the fall guy.

What are Donald Trump’s tariffs, what is ‘liberation day’ and how does it all affect the UK?

And what if it does all go wrong? What if Trump is actually the April fool?

“It’s going to work…” his press secretary said when asked if it could all be a disaster, driving up the cost of living for Americans and creating global economic chaos.

“The president has a brilliant team who have been studying these issues for decades and we are focussed on restoring the global age of America…” Karoline Leavitt said.

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‘Days of US being ripped off are over’

Dancing to the president’s tune

My sense is that we should see “liberation day” not as the moment it’s all over in terms of negotiations for countries globally as they try to carve out deals with the White House. Rather it should be seen as the start.

Trump, as always, wants to be seen as the one calling the shots, taking control, seizing the limelight. He wants the world to dance to his tune. Today is his moment.

But beyond today, alongside the inevitable tit-for-tat retaliation, expect to see efforts by nations to seek carve-outs and to throw bones to Trump; to identify areas where trade policies can be tweaked to placate the president.

Even small offerings which change little in a material sense could give Trump the chance to spin and present himself as the winning deal maker he craves to be.

One significant challenge for foreign governments and their diplomats in Washington has been engaging the president himself with proposals he might like.

Negotiations take place with a White House team who are themselves unsure where the president will ultimately land. It’s resulted in unsatisfactory speculative negotiations.

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Treasury minister: ‘We’ll do everything to secure a deal’

Too much faith placed in the ‘special relationship’?

The UK believes it’s in a better position than most other countries globally. It sits outside the EU giving it autonomy in its trade policy, its deficit with the US is small, and Trump loves Britain.

It’s true too that the UK government has managed to accelerate trade conversations with the White House on a tariff-free trade partnership. Trump’s threats have forced conversations that would normally sit in the long grass for months.

Yet, for now, the conversations have yielded nothing firm. That’s a worry for sure. Did Keir Starmer have too much faith in the ‘special relationship’?

Downing Street will have identified areas where they can tweak trade policy to placate Trump. Cars maybe? Currently US cars into the UK carry a 10% tariff. Digital services perhaps?

US food? Unlikely – there are non-tariff barriers on US food because the consensus seems to be that chlorinated chicken and the like isn’t something UK consumers want.

Easier access to UK financial services maybe? More visas for Americans?

For now though, everyone is waiting to see what Trump does before they either retaliate or relent and lower their own market barriers.

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Bodies still remain among the ‘collapsed and inclining’ buildings in quake-hit Mandalay

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Bodies still remain among the 'collapsed and inclining' buildings in quake-hit Mandalay

A man inside Mandalay has told Sky News bodies remain under “collapsed and inclining” buildings after the Myanmar earthquake – as a woman was freed from rubble after 91 hours.

The local inside Myanmar said many of the structures in the city were wrecked or badly damaged after the 7.7 magnitude quake on Friday, adding: “There are some bodies, some dead bodies, that still remain and other destruction”.

Meanwhile, in a televised address, Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing said the number of dead had risen to 2,719 and is expected to exceed 3,000.

Some 4,521 people have been injured, while a further 441 are missing.

More than 10,000 buildings are known to have collapsed or been severely damaged in central and northwest Myanmar, the World Health Organisation said.

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Before and after: Myanmar earthquake

Smell of dead bodies near destroyed buildings

In Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, which was close to the quake’s epicentre, 50 children and two teachers were killed when their preschool collapsed, the United Nations said.

The local in the city told Sky News that “a lot of local assistance associations like charity groups are still struggling with digging out the corpses, the dead bodies, from the destruction”.

He said that “when we pass near the destructions, the collapsed building or very damaged building, we can smell” dead bodies.

“The smell of the dead bodies after four days… it still remains,” he said, before adding: “For the social assistance association… they need permission [to give aid] especially from the government.

“If they don’t have permission, then they cannot do anything.”

People sheltering in a makeshift tent camp in Mandalay. Pic: Reuters
Image:
People sheltering in a makeshift tent camp in Mandalay. Pic: Reuters

He also said others in Mandalay are struggling after the earthquake, which followed the city being affected by cyclones, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the civil war in Myanmar – where a junta seized power in a coup in 2021.

“Some people, they say they have nothing at all,” the local added. “They have no more home, they have no more belongings, because its already damaged.”

Woman freed after 91 hours under rubble

It comes after the fire department in Myanmar’s capital freed a woman trapped under rubble 91 hours after the building collapsed.

The 63-year-old woman was freed early on Tuesday in Naypyidaw.

As the country continues to recover, a worker from the International Rescue Committee said people fear aftershocks and are sleeping outside on roads or in open fields.

Communities are struggling to meet basic needs such as access to clean water and sanitation, and emergency teams are working “tirelessly” to locate survivors and provide aid, the UN said in a report.

Rescue efforts have been complicated by the civil war, as rebel groups say the junta has conducted airstrikes, even after the quake, while NGOs fear that certain areas could be denied vital supplies.

“Myanmar’s military has a longstanding practice of denying aid to areas where groups who resist it are active,” said Joe Freeman, a researcher with Amnesty Myanmar.

“It must immediately allow unimpeded access to all humanitarian organisations and remove administrative barriers delaying needs assessments.”

Read more:
Military regime targeting ‘civilian areas’ in ‘wake of disaster’
Myanmar earthquake leaves some areas almost completely destroyed

The quake was the strongest to hit the southeast Asian country in more than a century.

In neighbouring Thailand, rescuers are still scouring the ruins of a collapsed, unfinished skyscraper for any signs of life.

“There are about 70 bodies underneath, and we hope by some miracle one or two are still alive,” volunteer rescue leader Bin Bunluerit said.

Six human-shaped figures have been detected by scanners, said Bangkok’s deputy governor, Tavida Kamolvej.

Thirteen deaths have been confirmed at the building site, with 74 people still missing, while Thailand’s national number of dead stands at 20.

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