Russia and Ukraine are running out of munitions – but one has a significant advantage | Sean Bell
Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.
Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.
However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.
Ukraine-Russia war – latest updates
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Zelenskyy: ‘Evil will be defeated’
Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.
However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.
No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.
Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.
But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.
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What went wrong for Ukraine in 2023?
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Ukraine: What you missed in 2023
By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.
To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.
Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.
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Russian hypersonic ballistic missile attack
In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.
Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.
So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.
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Russian airstrikes target Kyiv
Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.
Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.
Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.
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Moment Kyiv building explodes
Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.
However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.
Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.
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Proposal after prisoner exchange
An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?
The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.
World
‘He was the light of my life and I lost him’: How a famous surgeon died in an Israeli prison after being taken from Gaza hospital
As a famous orthopaedic surgeon, Dr Adnan Al-Bursh spent much of his career fixing broken limbs and broken bodies at Gaza’s Al-Shifa Hospital.
One of the best-trained doctors in the enclave, a photo showing him covered in blood in Al-Shifa’s operating theatre went viral in 2018.
When war broke out last October, he worked around the clock. Pictures stored on his mobile phone show him standing in a hole, swinging a blunt-edged shovel as the hospital descended into crisis.
It had run out of fuel, food and basic pain relief and there was no more space to store dead bodies. Dressed in hospital scrubs, Dr Al-Bursh and his colleagues dug mass graves as the sound of explosions rang out behind the hospital’s walls.
Soon after the outbreak of the conflict, the surgeon, along with his wife Yasmin, realised that their world had changed forever.
“Adnan was needed every time there was a war,” she recalled. “So, I told him, ‘get ready, there will be lots of operations, they will need your help’. He went to hospital to receive the injured and stayed for 24 hours. He did not stop.”
Dr Adnan Al-Bursh’s wife and children
Dr Al-Bursh spent his days in the operating room and slept in the staff room at night.
He also kept a diary of sorts with his mobile phone, documenting the increasingly desperate scenes unfolding around him.
“Despite the pain, we are steadfast,” he said as he filmed the scene in a crowded operating theatre.
Dr Al-Bursh and others in the staff room
Israel said the foundations of Al-Shifa were laced with tunnels where Hamas operated a ‘command-and-control centre’, something Hamas denies.
As Israeli troops advanced towards the facility, Dr Al-Bursh captured the mood inside. Another video found on his mobile phone shows a colleague in the staffroom recalling a painful conversation with his wife.
“I remember that she only asked one thing of me, what do you think it was? That request was ‘just let me see you smile’.
“Smile. It’s the first thing I want to do after this war, if God saves us.”
Tens of thousands of people had to evacuate the hospital
By mid-November, Al-Shifa was under siege by Israeli troops.
A week later, patients, staff and some 50,000 displaced residents sheltering in the compound were ordered to evacuate.
Dr Al-Bursh captured the scene of long columns of people walking towards southern Gaza.
But the surgeon did not follow them. Instead, he went northeast to another facility – the Indonesian Hospital – still operating in northern Gaza. What he found on his arrival horrified him.
“I was shocked by the size of the catastrophe here,” he said in a video. “There are injured people who have been waiting for their operations for more than ten days. [Their] wounds were severely infected.”
On 20 November 2023, the Indonesian Hospital was surrounded by Israeli tanks and later that evening, projectiles were fired into the second floor. At least 12 people were killed.
Dr Al-Bursh survived with minor scrapes but the front entrance of the facility was torn apart. “The destruction is everywhere,” he said in another video.
A spokesman for the IDF denied that Israeli forces were responsible.
By early December 2023, Dr Al-Bursh had moved to a small hospital, also in the north, called Al-Awda.
A series of pictures, posted on the hospital’s social media page, show him examining patients with fatigue etched on his face.
These are the last known images taken of the surgeon.
These are the last known images taken of the surgeon at Al-Awda hospital
The last images were released on hospital social media
The Israeli military surrounded the hospital on 5 December, and the staff were worried about what the soldiers would do.
Dr Al-Bursh worked at Al-Awda alongside a friend and colleague, Dr Mohammad Obeid.
Eventually, the hospital’s director told them that they would have to leave the building.
“[The director] told us that the [Israeli army] have full data of all males aged between 14 and 65 at Awda hospital,” Dr Obeid said, tearfully. “They told him that if all men do not come down… they will destroy the Awda Hospital with all the women and children in it.”
We put this allegation to the IDF but they did not respond.
The men filed out of the hospital and five, including Dr Al-Bursh, were taken away.
“A soldier came up to us and called out Dr Adnan’s name, who was sitting next to me… I felt he was in a very difficult situation. The occupation soldier took him and the treatment was very rough.”
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The Israeli military base, Sde Teiman, where Dr Al-Bursh was taken. Pic: Breaking the Silence
In a brief statement, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed to Sky News that Dr Al-Bursh was detained by its personnel. On 19 December 2023, it says the surgeon was taken to an Israeli military base called Sde Teiman, which has been used for processing detainees since the early part of the war.
Allegations of physical, mental and sexual abuse are rife. A former camp inmate, Dr Khalid Hamouda, believes many of the prisoners at Sde Teiman were medical professionals.
“In the camp where I was, there were about 100 prisoners. I think at least a quarter of them were involved in healthcare. Some of them were doctors, nurses and technicians.”
Dr Hamouda was put to work by the guards at the base as their helper or ‘shawish’, and remembers being told to fetch Dr Al-Bursh at the gate. When he collected him, his fellow doctor said he had been badly beaten and felt pain all over his body.
“He thought he may have broken ribs,” Dr Hamouda said. “He was unable to even go to the toilet alone.”
Israeli soldiers stand outside Ofer military prison near Jerusalem. Pic: AP
The IDF told Sky News that after Dr Al-Bursh was processed, he left Sde Teiman on 20 December and became the “responsibility” of the Israeli Prison Service.
In April, the surgeon was taken to an incarceration facility near Jerusalem called Ofer Prison.
He died shortly after his arrival. News of the surgeon’s death was announced in a statement from two Palestinian prisoner support associations at the beginning of May. The Israelis offered no explanation or cause of death.
Sky News has spoken to people who claim to have witnessed the moments before Dr Al-Bursh’s death.
A prisoner, who says he previously knew Dr Al-Bursh in Gaza, provided details in a deposition to lawyers from the Israeli human rights organisation HaMoked.
“In mid-April 2024, Dr Adnan Al-Bursh arrived at Section 23 in Ofer Prison. The prison guards brought Dr Adnan Al-Bursh into the section in a deplorable state. He had clearly been assaulted with injuries around his body. He was naked in the lower part of his body.
“The prison guards threw him in the middle of the yard and left him there. Dr Adnan Al-Bursh was unable to stand up. One of the prisoners helped him and accompanied him to one of the rooms. A few minutes later, prisoners were heard screaming from the room they went into, declaring Dr Adnan Al-Bursh (was dead).”
Dr Al-Bursh treating a young patient earlier in the war
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While some people might suggest that Dr Adnan Al-Bursh was a terrorist, Daqqa said: “If you want to formally answer this question, he was not charged until now. And many of these detainees are not charged from Gaza.”
In a statement to Sky News, a spokesman for the Israel Prison Service said: “IPS is a law enforcement organisation that operates according to the provisions of the law and under the supervision of the state comptroller and many other official critiques.
“All prisoners are detained according to the law. All basic rights required are fully applied by professionally trained prison guards.
“We are not aware of the claims you described and as far as we know, no such events have occurred under IPS responsibility. Nonetheless, prisoners and detainees have the right to file a complaint that will be fully examined and addressed by official authorities.”
Dr Al-Bursh’s family paid tribute to him
Sky News was told by colleagues and Dr Al-Bursh’s wife Yasmin that he was in good physical condition before his arrest.
“He was the light of my life and I lost him,” Yasmin said.
Dr Al-Bursh was prepared to risk his life to save others. This story is one of a countless number, now buried under the immovable weight of Gaza’s recent past.
But Dr Al-Bursh lived and lost his life in a manner that demands acknowledgement, his friends and family members say.
World
Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’
In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.
We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.
The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.
They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.
War latest: Russia ready to carry out ‘massive attack’
The captain known by his men as ‘Genius’
In the summer, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, in Kursk
Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.
Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.
He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.
His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.
Captain Sasha Shyrshyn and Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay
‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’
Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.
We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.
“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.
He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.
Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.
Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.
“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.
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‘The world is scared of Russia’
It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.
The disguised American Bradley vehicle hidden in the forest
Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.
A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.
He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.
“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”
The American Bradley fighting vehicle that Ukrainian soldiers have found vital in their efforts
Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.
Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.
If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.
US President-elect Donald Trump has been clear he intends to change his nation’s policy on the war in Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.
“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”
Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.
He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.
“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.
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‘Losing will be not only our problem’
These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.
Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.
Barbed wire rolled out in the Sumy region ahead of expected fighting
Tank traps in the Sumy region
Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.
“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.
But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.
“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”
Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.
World
Joe Biden welcomes Donald Trump at White House for transition of power meeting president was never offered
US President Joe Biden greeted Donald Trump at the White House saying “welcome back”, as the two political rivals met for the first time since a fiery debate in June.
Mr Biden and Mr Trump were seen exchanging pleasantries as they sat side by side in front of a roaring fire in the Oval Office today, in a meeting aimed at ensuring the smooth transfer of power from one leader to another.
It is the first time the president-elect has visited the White House since he left the Oval Office after being defeated by Mr Biden in the 2020 election.
“Donald, congratulations,” Mr Biden said, greeting Mr Trump with a handshake and adding that he looked “forward to a smooth transition”.
“Welcome, welcome back,” the president said.
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The president and president-elect shaking hands. Pic: Reuters
The president-elect thanked Mr Biden for the invitation and for a peaceful transition of power saying it will be “as smooth as it can get”.
Mr Trump added: “Politics is tough, and it’s many cases not a very nice world, but it is a nice world today, and I appreciate very much a transition that’s so smooth it’ll be as smooth as it can get, and I very much appreciate that, Joe.”
The last time Mr Trump and Mr Biden met in person was for the presidential debate on 27 June, when the Democrat’s gaffes cost him his candidacy.
Mr Biden dropped out a few weeks later in July, endorsing vice president Kamala Harris to run in the presidential race instead.
First lady Jill Biden also made an appearance at the meeting, greeting the president-elect as he arrived at the White House and giving him a “handwritten letter of congratulations” for his wife, Melania Trump, a statement from her office said.
Mr Trump thanked the outgoing president for a smooth transition of power. Pic: Reuters
The letter also “expressed her team’s readiness to assist with the transition”.
The incoming first lady was invited to meet Dr Biden, but reportedly declined the invitation.
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The meeting follows the longstanding tradition of outgoing presidents meeting their successors to discuss a smooth transition from one administration to the other.
However, Republican Mr Trump failed to give the same opportunity to Mr Biden in 2020 as he refused to accept his defeat against his Democratic rival.
Today’s nearly two-hour meeting between Mr Biden and the president-elect saw them discuss foreign affairs, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and the safe release of Israeli hostages captured by Hamas during the militant group’s 7 October attack on southern Israel last year.
Mr Biden stressed the importance of supporting Ukraine as it fights off Russia’s full-scale invasion, the White House said, amid concerns that Mr Trump would follow through with threats to cut US aid to Kyiv.
The White House said Mr Biden’s team is open to working with Mr Trump’s on securing the release of Israeli hostages, which, along with a ceasefire in Gaza, has been the focus of negotiations between Israel and Hamas and their mediators.
It also said the Biden administration had secured extra commitments from Israel in the past couple of days over the situation in Gaza, where a 13-month war has caused the death of more than 43,000 people, Palestinian health officials say.
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‘It’s always nice to win’
Mr Trump, who previously won the keys to the White House when running against Hillary Clinton in 2016, will be sworn in as president on 20 January following his decisive election win against Ms Harris last week.
Sky News’ US partner network NBC News has projected the Republicans have retained control of the House of Representatives.
It means all levers of power in Washington are now under Mr Trump and his party’s control, having also secured the Senate.
They will also be backed by a Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority, including three justices appointed by the president-elect.
Earlier today, Mr Trump met with billionaire Elon Musk earlier today before he celebrated his victory with Republicans in the House of Representatives.
“Isn’t it nice to win? It’s nice to win. It’s always nice to win,” Mr Trump said. “The House did very well.”
Mr Trump received a standing ovation from House Republicans, many of whom took videos of him as he ran through their party’s victories up and down the ballot, in what would be his final presidential election.
“I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say ‘he’s good, we’ve got to figure something out’,” Mr Trump said to laughter.
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