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Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.

Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.

However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.

Ukraine-Russia war – latest updates

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Zelenskyy: ‘Evil will be defeated’

Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.

However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.

No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.

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Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.

But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.

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What went wrong for Ukraine in 2023?

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Ukraine: What you missed in 2023

By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.

To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.

Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.

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Russian hypersonic ballistic missile attack

In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.

Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.

So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.

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Russian airstrikes target Kyiv

Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.

Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.

Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.

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Moment Kyiv building explodes

Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.

However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.

Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.

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Proposal after prisoner exchange

An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?

The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.

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Tens of thousands killed in two days in Sudan city, analysts believe

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Tens of thousands killed in two days in Sudan city, analysts believe

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the Sudanese city of Al Fashir by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in a two-day window after the paramilitary group captured the regional capital, analysts believe.

Sky News is not able to independently verify the claim by Yale Humanitarian Labs, as the city remains under a telecommunications blackout.

Stains and shapes resembling blood and corpses can be seen from space in satellite images analysed by the research lab.

Al Fashir University. Pic: Airbus DS/2025
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Al Fashir University. Pic: Airbus DS/2025

Al Fashir University. Pic: Airbus DS/2025
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Al Fashir University. Pic: Airbus DS/2025

Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of Yale Humanitarian Labs, said: “In the past 48 hours since we’ve had [satellite] imagery over Al Fashir, we see a proliferation of objects that weren’t there before RSF took control of Al Fashir – they are approximately 1.3m to 2m long which is critical because in satellite imagery at very high resolution, that’s the average length of a human body lying vertical.”

Mini Minawi, the governor of North Darfur, said on X that 460 civilians have been killed in the last functioning hospital in the city.

The Sudan Doctors Network has also shared that the RSF “cold-bloodedly killed everyone they found inside Al Saudi Hospital, including patients, their companions, and anyone else present in the wards”.

World Health Organisation (WHO) chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said it was “appalled and deeply shocked” by the reports.

Satellite images support the claims of a massacre at Al Saudi Hospital, according to Mr Raymond, who said YHL’s report detailed “a large pile of them [objects believed to be bodies] against a wall at one building at Saudi hospital. And we believe that’s consistent with reports that patients and staff were executed en masse”.

In a video message released on Wednesday, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo acknowledged “violations in Al Fashir” and claimed “an investigation committee should start to hold any soldier or officer accountable”.

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Army soldiers ‘fled key Sudan city’ before capture

The Saudi Maternity Hospital in Al Fashir. Pic: Airbus DS /2025 via AP
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The Saudi Maternity Hospital in Al Fashir. Pic: Airbus DS /2025 via AP

The commander is known for committing atrocities in Darfur in the early 2000s as a Janjaweed militia leader, and the RSF has been accused of carrying out genocide in Darfur 20 years on.

Sources have told Sky News the RSF is holding doctors, journalists and politicians captive, demanding ransoms from some families to release their loved ones.

One video shows a man from Al Fashir with an armed man kneeling on the ground, telling his family to pay 15,000. The currency was not made clear.

In some cases, ransoms have been paid, but then more messages come demanding that more money be transferred to secure release.

Muammer Ibrahim, a journalist based in the city, is currently being held by the RSF, who initially shared videos of him crouched on the ground, surrounded by fighters, announcing his hometown had been captured under duress.

Read more:
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‘Massacre’ kills more than 50, including children

200,000 trapped after army flees

He is being held incommunicado as his family scrambles to negotiate his release. Muammer courageously covered the siege of Al Fashir for months, enduring starvation and shelling.

The Committee to Protect Journalists regional director Sara Qudah said the abduction of Muammar Ibrahim “is a grave and alarming reminder that journalists in Al Fashir are being targeted simply for telling the truth”.

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At least 30 killed after ‘unprecedented’ Hurricane Melissa ravages through Caribbean

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At least 30 killed after 'unprecedented' Hurricane Melissa ravages through Caribbean

At least 30 people have died after Hurricane Melissa tore through the Caribbean on Wednesday.

The Red Cross said early indications show the storm has been a “disaster of unprecedented catastrophe”.

Storm Melissa has so far ravaged through Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

At least 34 are estimated to be dead in the Caribbean, with eight of those in Jamaica, one in the Dominican Republic and 25 in Haiti.

This was down from a previously reported 40.

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‘Unimaginable’ destruction of Hurricane Melissa

‘Heartbreaking’ aerial footage reveals scale of destruction

Later on Wednesday, the Jamaican government confirmed four people – three men and one woman – had been killed. This figure later rose to eight.

Local government minister, Desmond McKenzie, said: “They were discovered after being washed up by the flood waters generated by the hurricane.”

Devastating aerial footage shows towns destroyed by the storm.

The Jamaican prime minister, Andrew Holness, travelled to St Elizabeth, where the first deaths were reported, to inspect the storm’s impact.

Read more:
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Sharing aerial footage of battered homes, he wrote: “The damage is great, but we are going to devote all our energy to mount a strong recovery.”

The storm made landfall in Cuba in the early hours of Wednesday morning before leaving mid-afternoon, heading towards the Bahamas.

Hurricane Melissa has ravaged through the Caribbean. Pic: Reuters
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Hurricane Melissa has ravaged through the Caribbean. Pic: Reuters

‘Whole communities are underwater’

Alexander Pendry, British Red Cross global response manager, said: “News is already coming through that whole communities are underwater and that the damage left by the strong winds has been devastating.

“The Jamaica Red Cross has been proactively supporting communities by preparing essential supplies and managing shelters. Their priority now is to reach people with aid as soon as possible.

“Across the Caribbean, Red Cross teams have been mobilising as Melissa continues its trajectory across Cuba, Dominican Republic and Haiti.”

He added: “Tragically, experience tells us that the impact on communities and individuals will be shattering and long lasting.

“We will be here for as long as people need us.”

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Suspects arrested over Louvre heist ‘partially admit involvement’ – as officials address inside job theory

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Suspects arrested over Louvre heist 'partially admit involvement' - as officials address inside job theory

The two suspects arrested over the Louvre jewellery heist have “partially” confessed to their involvement in the robbery, according to a prosecutor.

Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau revealed the development at a news conference on Wednesday.

Four thieves stole nine items – one of which was dropped and recovered at the scene – in a heist pulled off while the world-famous Paris museum was open to visitors on 19 October.

It took the thieves less than eight minutes to steal the jewels. They forced open a window and cut into cases with power tools after gaining access via a vehicle-mounted mechanical lift.

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Suspects in Louvre robbery ‘partially confessed’

Ms Beccuau also said the jewels had not yet been recovered.

“These jewels are now, of course, unsellable,” said Ms Beccuau. “Anyone who buys them would be guilty of concealment of stolen goods. It’s still time to give them back.”

‘No evidence’

Ms Beccuau also addressed reports that police believe the robbery could have been an inside job.

She said that there was “no evidence the thieves benefited from inside help”.

Under French rules for organised theft, custody can run up to 96 hours. That limit is due to expire late on Wednesday, and prosecutors must charge the suspects, release them or seek a judge’s extension.

Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau speaks during a press conference about the investigation into the Louvre robbery. Pic: Reuters
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Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau speaks during a press conference about the investigation into the Louvre robbery. Pic: Reuters

One suspect is a 34-year-old Algerian national who has been living in France since 2010, Ms Beccuau said. He was arrested Saturday night at Charles de Gaulle airport as he was about to fly to Algeria with no return ticket.

Ms Beccuau said that he was living in the Paris suburb of Aubervilliers, and was known to police mostly for road traffic offences.

The other suspect, 39, was arrested Saturday night at his home in Aubervilliers.

“There is no evidence to suggest that he was about to leave the country,” said Ms Beccuau.

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Louvre jewels ‘have not returned’

The man was known to police for several thefts, and his DNA was found on one of the glass cases where the jewels were displayed, and on items the thieves left behind, she added.

Earlier, French police acknowledged major gaps in the Louvre’s defences.

Paris police chief Patrice Faure told politicians that ageing security systems had left weak spots.

“A technological step has not been taken,” he said.

Read more:
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Mr Faure also revealed that the Louvre’s authorisation to operate its security cameras quietly expired in July and had not been renewed.

He said the first alert to police came not from the Louvre’s alarms, but from a cyclist outside who dialled the emergency line after seeing helmeted men with a basket lift.

Members of a forensic team inspect a window believed to have been used by the culprits. Pic: Reuters
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Members of a forensic team inspect a window believed to have been used by the culprits. Pic: Reuters

Mr Faure also rejected calls for a permanent police post inside the museum, warning it would set an unworkable precedent and do little against fast and mobile thieves.

“I am firmly opposed,” he said. “The issue is not a guard at a door; it is speeding the chain of alert.”

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