Russia and Ukraine are both running out of munitions – but one has a significant advantage

Published

2 years ago

January 7, 2024

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Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.

Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.

However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.

Ukraine-Russia war – latest updates

Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.

However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.

No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.

Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.

But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.

By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.

To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.

Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.

In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.

Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.

So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.

Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.

Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.

Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.

Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.

However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.

Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.

An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?

The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.

World

Gazan doctor being held in ‘inhumane’ conditions in Israeli jail, says lawyer

Published

9 hours ago

July 22, 2025

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Gazan doctor being held in 'inhumane' conditions in Israeli jail, says lawyer

The lawyer of a high-profile Gazan doctor detained by Israel since last December has spoken of her shock over his condition after being allowed a rare visit to see him in jail.

Ghaid Qassem has told Sky News that Dr Hussam Abu Safiya – the director of the Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza – survives on very little food, including two spoonfuls of rice a day and has lost a third of his body weight. She said he has been subjected to severe beatings.

“As a young woman, seeing an older man – a respected doctor like Hussam Abu Safiya – broken in front of me, degraded, surrounded by prison guards, in the worst possible condition, how am I supposed to feel?” she said.

“The conditions of his detention are extremely harsh, inhumane, with continuous assaults.

“This is the sixth time he has been brutally attacked.

“The most recent incident was on 24 June 24, which coincided with the end of Israel‘s war with Iran and the strike on Soroka Hospital in Beersheba [Israel].

“It seems the prison authorities decided to take revenge. They raided Abu Safiya’s cell and began assaulting him.

“He was beaten, sustaining bruises on his head, neck, and back. Afterwards, he requested medical treatment because he felt abnormal heartbeats, but his request was denied.”

It is thought that since his detention Dr Abu Safiya has been held at a number of Israeli jails.

His lawyer said she was allowed access to meet with him at Ofer prison, near Jerusalem.

Ms Qassem said there was no proper healthcare or hygiene and it is claimed the paediatrician is being held in an underground cell.

“They can’t shower, their clothes aren’t replaced, not even underwear,” she said. “Scabies is rampant, skin diseases are widespread and the most basic medical attention is only given when they see you’re on the verge of death.”

Dr Abu Safiya was last seen in Gaza, wearing his white doctor’s coat as he walked through the rubble outside his hospital towards an Israeli tank in December 2024.

Before then he had become a well-known voice and face of the Kamal Adwan hospital, sharing videos about the siege of the medical facility and explaining how staff were struggling to continue working under Israeli bombardment.

The hospital has since been forced to close down.

Oneg Ben Dror, from Physicians for Human Rights Israel, told Sky News they believe Dr Abu Safiya is one of more than a 100 medical professionals from Gaza currently being detained in Israeli jails.

She said: “We know that more than 250 health care workers were arrested since the start of the war on Gaza.

“Part of them were released, and more than 100 are still detained. We have their names, and we managed to visit dozens of them while in detention.

“All those we met weren’t charged officially with any offence.

“We asked them about the interrogation and all of them said the questions they were asked weren’t about them or a specific offence.

“It was more information gathering about their workplace and people they knew and this is against international law arresting them while doing their job and holding them for intelligence gathering and as bargaining chips for a potential deal.”

A spokesperson for the Israel Prison Service (IPS) said: “All prisoners are detained according to the law. All basic rights required are fully applied by professionally trained prison guards.

“We are not aware of the claims you described, and as far as we know, no such events have occurred under IPS responsibility.

“Nonetheless, prisoners and detainees have the right to file a complaint that will be fully examined and addressed by official authorities.”

Dr Abu Safiya’s colleague, Dr Eid Sabbah, head of the nursing department at Kamal Adwan Hospital, told Sky News more than 30 medical staff from the hospital have been killed during the conflict.

He said: “We pray to God to give Dr Abu Safiya strength, to ease his suffering soon, and to see him free – just like the rest of our people, our patients, our wounded, and all the doctors who were detained from this hospital.

“He is in a very difficult situation. The news we are hearing is troubling and far from reassuring.

“He was the kind of doctor who took bold stands for his colleague. At the same time, he never abandoned his patients, even under extreme pressure.

“Despite calls urging him to evacuate the hospital for his own safety, he refused to leave. He stayed by his patients’ sides, fully committed to serving them – especially the children, the elderly, the women, and the injured.”

World

Gaza food situation ‘worst it’s ever been’, charity says – as UK promises £40m in aid

Published

15 hours ago

July 21, 2025

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Gaza food situation 'worst it's ever been', charity says – as UK promises £40m in aid

An aid worker in the central Gaza Strip has told Sky News the food situation in the enclave is “absolutely desperate” and “the worst it’s ever been”.

Her comments to Sky’s chief presenter Mark Austin come amid fresh international outcry over Israel’s restrictions on aid, as the UK has joined together with 24 other countries to say: “The war in Gaza must end now.”

Rachael Cummings, humanitarian director for Save The Children, is in Deir al Balah, a city in central Gaza where tens of thousands of people have sought refuge during repeated waves of mass displacement.

Middle East latest: Key points from UK statement on Gaza

She said: “One of my colleagues said to me yesterday, ‘We are all walking together towards death’. And this is the situation now for people in Gaza.

“There is no food for their children, it’s absolutely desperate here.”

“The markets are empty,” she said. “People may even have cash in their pockets yet they cannot buy bread [or] vegetables.

“My team have said to me, ‘There’s nothing in my house to feed my children, my children are crying all day, every day.”

Israel launched a ground assault on Deir al Balah on Monday morning, another charity said earlier.

Ms Cummings’s comments came as the UK and 24 other nations issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire.

The statement criticised aid distribution in Gaza, which is being managed by a US and Israel-backed organisation, Gaza Health Foundation.

“The Israeli government’s aid delivery model is dangerous, fuels instability and deprives Gazans of human dignity,” it said.

The 25 countries also called for the “immediate and unconditional release” of hostages captured by Hamas during the 7 October 2023 attacks.

Lammy promises £40m for Gaza aid

Foreign Secretary David Lammy later promised £40m for humanitarian assistance in Gaza.

He told MPs: “We are leading diplomatic efforts to show that there must be a viable pathway to a Palestinian state involving the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas, in the security and governance of the area.

“Hamas can have no role in the governance of Gaza, nor use it as a launchpad for terrorism.”

Addressing the foreign secretaries’ joint written statement, charity worker Liz Allcock – who works for Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) in Gaza – told Sky News: “While we welcome this, there have been statements in the past 21 months and nothing has changed.

“In fact, things have only got worse. And every time we think it can’t get worse, it does.”

“Without a reversal of the siege, the lack of supplies, the constant bombardment, the forced displacement, the killing, the militarisation of aid, we are going to collapse as a humanitarian response,” she said.

“And this would do a grave injustice to the 2.2 million people we’re trying to serve.

“An immediate and permanent ceasefire, and avenues for accountability in line with international law, is the minimum people here deserve.”

The war in Gaza started in response to Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people and saw about 250 taken hostage.

More than 59,000 Palestinians have since been killed, with more than half being women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

In recent weeks hundreds of Palestinians have reportedly been killed while waiting for food and aid.

The Israeli military has blamed Hamas militants for fomenting chaos and endangering civilians.

World

Plane crashes into college campus in Bangladesh – at least 19 people dead

Published

21 hours ago

July 21, 2025

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Plane crashes into college campus in Bangladesh - at least 19 people dead

At least 19 people have died after a Bangladesh air force plane crashed into a college campus, the military said.

The aircraft crashed into the campus of Milestone School and College in Uttara, in the northern area of the capital Dhaka, where students were taking tests or attending regular classes.

The pilot was one of the people killed, and, according to the military, 164 were injured in the incident.

The Bangladesh military’s public relations department added that the aircraft was an F-7 BGI, and had taken off at 1.06pm local time before crashing shortly after.

Video shows fire and smoke rising from the crash site, with hundreds looking on.

The cause of the crash was not immediately clear.

Bengali-language daily newspaper Prothom Alo said that most of the injured were students with burn injuries.

Citing the duty officer at the fire service control room, Prothom Alo also reported that the plane had crashed on the roof of the college canteen.

Rafiqa Taha, a 16-year-old student at the school who was not present at the time of the crash, told the Associated Press that the school has around 2,000 students.

“I was terrified watching videos on TV,” she added. “My God! It’s my school.”