Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.
Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.
However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.
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Zelenskyy: ‘Evil will be defeated’
Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.
However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.
No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.
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Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.
But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.
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Ukraine: What you missed in 2023
By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.
To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.
Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.
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Russian hypersonic ballistic missile attack
In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.
Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.
So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.
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Russian airstrikes target Kyiv
Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.
Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.
Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.
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Moment Kyiv building explodes
Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.
However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.
Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.
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Proposal after prisoner exchange
An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?
The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.
The Israeli military has said its investigation into the killing of aid workers in Gaza has found there were “several professional failures, breaches of orders, and a failure to fully report the incident”.
A commanding officer will be reprimanded and a deputy commander will be dismissed following the military investigation, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said.
Fifteen aid workers were shot dead by Israeli troops who opened fire on a convoy of vehicles, including ambulances, on 23 March.
They were then buried in a shallow grave where their bodies were found a week later by officials from the United Nations and the Palestinian Red Crescent.
The probe’s findings come after a Sky News investigation earlier this week revealed how the deadly attack unfolded, contradicting Israel’s official account of the killings.
At first, Israel claimed the medics’ vehicles did not have emergency signals on when troops fired their shots, but later backtracked.
Mobile phone footage which was recovered from one of the medics contradicted Israel’s initial account.
In a statement on Sunday, an IDF spokesperson said: “The Commanding Officer of the 14th Brigade will receive a reprimand, which will be recorded in his personal file, for his overall responsibility for the incident, including the procedure of combat and management of the scene afterward.
“The deputy commander of the Golani Reconnaissance Battalion will be dismissed from his position due to his responsibilities as the field commander in this incident and for providing an incomplete and inaccurate report during the debrief.”
Image: Footage was released of the attack on 23 March
‘Poor night visibility’
The investigation found that the deputy commander did not initially recognise the vehicles as ambulances “due to poor night visibility”, according to the spokesperson.
“Only later, after approaching the vehicles and scanning them, was it discovered that these were indeed rescue teams,” they added.
Probe looked at ‘three shooting incidents’
The IDF said that about an hour before the attack on the convoy, Israeli troops fired at what they “identified as a Hamas vehicle” and the forces “remained on high alert for further potential threats”.
In the convoy incident, the IDF said the soldiers “opened fire on suspects emerging from a fire truck and ambulances very close to the area in which the troops were operating, after perceiving an immediate and tangible threat”.
“Supporting surveillance” had reported five vehicles approaching rapidly and stopping near the troops, with passengers quickly disembarking, according to the IDF.
It said the deputy battalion commander “assessed the vehicles as employed by Hamas forces, who arrived to assist the first vehicle’s passengers”, adding that: “Under this impression and sense of threat, he ordered to open fire.”
According to the IDF, six of the 15 killed were “identified in a retrospective examination as Hamas terrorists”.
But the Sky News investigation found no evidence to support this claim.
The IDF also said there was a third incident about 15 minutes later where “the troops fired at a Palestinian UN vehicle due to operational errors in breach of regulations”.
“The troops’ commander initially reported the event, and additional details emerged later in the examination.”
Bodies were buried in mass grave
Eight Red Crescent personnel, six civil defence workers and a UN staff member were killed in the shooting on the convoy by troops carrying out operations in Tel al Sultan, a district of the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
Troops then bulldozed over the bodies along with their mangled vehicles, burying them in a mass grave.
‘Decision to crush vehicles was wrong’
The IDF statement said that at dawn it was decided to “gather and cover the bodies to prevent further harm and clear the vehicles from the route in preparation for civilian evacuation”.
The body removal and vehicle crushing were carried out by field commanders, according to the military.
Removing the bodies was reasonable under the circumstances, but the decision to crush the vehicles was wrong, the investigation concluded, and “in general there was no attempt to conceal the event”.
The probe also found that “the [gun]fire in the first two incidents resulted from an operational misunderstanding by the troops, who believed they faced a tangible threat from enemy forces. The third incident involved a breach of orders during a combat setting”.
Pope Francis has made his first significant public appearance since he left hospital, greeting cheering crowds from the popemobile.
He blessed the thousands of faithful gathered to celebrate Easter Sunday at the Vatican.
The 88-year-old pontiff appeared frail as he was wheeled out onto the balcony over the entrance of St Peter’s Basilica, before being driven in the popemobile through the crowds of faithful gathered in St Peter’s Square.
He was met with cheers, applause and chants of “Viva il Papa” – meaning long live the Pope.
Image: Pope Francis being driven through the crowds in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
“Brothers and sisters, Happy Easter!” Pope Francis managed to say, before an aide read the rest of his annual Urbi et Orbi blessing and speech, which called for an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
“May the risen Christ grant Ukraine, devastated by war, his Easter gift of peace, and encourage all parties involved to pursue efforts aimed at achieving a just and lasting peace,” the message said.
Image: Pic: Reuters
“In this Jubilee year, may Easter also be a fitting occasion for the liberation of prisoners of war and political prisoners!”
Image: Pic: Reuters
Crowds then stretched out their hands and filmed as the Pope was driven past in the special vehicle.
The popemobile stopped a number of times in order for the pontiff to bless babies and small children, appearing to also give them gifts.
Image: The Pope blesses a baby as he travels around St Peter’s Square
Before the public appearance, the Pope “exchanged good wishes” with US vice president JD Vance during a private audience at the Vatican.
Image: The Pope meeting JD Vance on Easter Sunday. Pic: Vatican Media
Image: Pic: Vatican Media
Mr Vance, who is in Rome with his family, also met with Pope Francis on Saturday, where the Vatican said there had been “an exchange of opinions” over international conflicts, migrants and prisoners.
Image: The faithful gather in St. Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
Image: Members of the clergy. Pic: Reuters
Leading up to Easter, he skipped the solemn services of Good Friday and Holy Saturday. Before Sunday, his biggest outing had been a visit to Rome’s central prison to spend Holy Thursday with inmates.
He also missed the Easter Sunday open-air mass, which was led instead by Cardinal Angelo Comastri, the retired archpriest of St Peter’s Basilica.
As people take a break for the Easter holiday, in the Gaza Strip there is no respite from the 18-month-long war with Israel.
Gaza has a tiny Christian community of Greek Orthodox Christians, Catholics, Evangelicals, and Anglicans.
For Ramez al-Souri, the pain is unimaginable. His three children were killed by an Israeli airstrike, on an annex of Gaza’s Saint Porphyrius Greek Orthodox Church.
Palestinian health officials say the attack on 19 October 2023 killed 18 people inside the building.
“My home has changed completely because there are no smiles, no laughter, no joy,” Mr Al-Souri says.
“I lost my flower – my daughter Julie – and my boys Suhail and Majd. They were salt of the Earth.”
Shrouded in darkness
Julia was 12 years old, Suhial 14 and Majd 11.
It is a loss that never leaves Mr Al-Souri, and one shared by almost every family in Gaza.
Walking through the cemetery, he gently places a small bouquet of flowers on his children’s grave. Gunfire crackles in the distance. The neighbourhood is full of rubble and destruction.
“This Easter is no different than the last,” Mr Al-Souri says.
“We are tending to our wounds.
“We continue to hope for an end to this war and suffering, for the darkness over Gaza to finally lift.”
Mr Netanyahu said Israel has “no choice” but to keep fighting “for our very own existence until victory.”
Israel is calling for Hamas to disarm and to release 10 Israeli hostages in exchange for a 45-day ceasefire.
There are 59 hostages still inside Gaza. It is believed 24 of them are still alive.
Hamas has rejected the proposal. It argues Israel reneged on the first ceasefire deal by refusing to move to phase two of the agreement and withdraw Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.
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Netanyahu: ‘I will not give in’
A disaster on the ground
Since the ceasefire collapsed on 2 March, Israel’s bombing campaign has intensified.
Palestinian health officials say more than 1,700 people have been killed in the last month, and more than 90 people in the last 24 hours.
The humanitarian situation is a disaster. At the few remaining soup kitchens in Gaza, children scramble for food. They carry pots for their family and push forward trying to secure a bowl of lentils or rice.
Israel has blocked aid trucks from entering for the last seven weeks. It says it is to put pressure on Hamas.
But the pressure is being felt by civilians, creating what aid groups say is the most severe crisis Gaza has ever faced.
Israel has cut off vital supplies of food and medicine, but insists it is not using starvation as a weapon of war. It rejects any suggestion Gaza does not have enough food and accuses Hamas of stealing it.
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Gazans struggle to find bodies under rubble
‘We’re craving food’
Seven members of the Al-Asheh family are displaced and live in a tent in Deir al-Balah.
Twelve-year-old Ahmed says before the war he didn’t like lentils, now it is all he eats.
“Before the war, we used to have fruits, chicken, vegetables, everything was available. We were never hungry,” Ahmed explains.
“Now, we’re craving food, chicken – anything. The only thing we can eat now is what the soup kitchen provides.”
Image: Food is increasingly hard to come by in Gaza
It is clear that ceasefire talks are going nowhere, and Israel has tightened its blockade and deepened its war.
More than 400,000 Palestinians have recently been displaced yet again as Israel has expanded a buffer zone inside Gaza, levelling houses to create a “security zone”.
For Palestinians, this constitutes a “land grab”.
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Israeli forces encircle Rafah
‘A symbol of the world’s conscience’
Israel has also established another military corridor in southern Gaza, calling it Morag corridor.
The corridor is north of Rafah and has cut Gaza’s second-largest city off from the rest of the territory. Israel says it has now taken control of 30% of the Gaza Strip and insists it will not withdraw.
For Palestinians, the future has never looked more bleak. They are blockaded, displaced, struggling for food, water, basic sanitation and in constant search of safety.
“Gaza is calling on the world to stand by it,” Mr Al-Souri says.
“Gaza stands as a symbol of the world’s moral conscience.”