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Despite Russia having significantly greater firepower, its illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.

Although Ukraine was not a member of NATO, the West responded to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for help with a mass of hi-tech weapons and ammunition.

However, following nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of munitions.

Ukraine-Russia war – latest updates

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Zelenskyy: ‘Evil will be defeated’

Inspired by Ukraine’s initial successes at liberating 12,000 sq km of occupied Kharkiv in September 2022, the West provided a huge volume of military supplies to support Mr Zelenskyy’s spring offensive.

However, despite months of intensive fighting, the frontlines have not moved significantly, and both sides need more firepower to prevail.

No nation holds sufficient war stocks of ammunition to meet the demands of such a high-tempo war of attrition. Russia has always stockpiled basic weapons and is believed to have started the war with several million artillery shells – however, even these stocks are now running low.

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Ukraine could not match Russia’s weapons stockpiles, but Western support focused on hi-tech weapons that provided Ukraine with precision strike capability.

But these Western weapons came from existing stockpiles, and no nation has the luxury of holding more weapons than it needs. Because of this, every weapon donated to Ukraine increased the national security risk for the donor nation.

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What went wrong for Ukraine in 2023?

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Ukraine: What you missed in 2023

By donating “older stocks” of weapons, the West judged that the cost and risk implications were manageable, but the supply was – inevitably – limited.

To address the firepower shortfall, Russia has turned to North Korea to supply ballistic missiles and one million artillery shells, and repeat orders can be expected.

Iran is happy to supply drones and larger missiles, which might not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but crucially they are available now. And Russia has a huge defence industrial base which has shifted on to a war footing, funded by huge oil revenues. Russia is rearming, and fast.

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Russian hypersonic ballistic missile attack

In contrast, Ukraine has a fledgling industrial base which is very vulnerable to Russian missile attacks – it takes months to build manufacturing capability, and a single strike by Russia to destroy it. Ukraine hopes to build one million drones this coming year, but it cannot match Russia’s defence industry’s capacity or capability, and it does not have the weapons to threaten Russia’s industrial base.

Ukraine’s GDP is also a fraction of the size of Russia’s – £157bn versus nearly £1.6trn – so it cannot compete with Russia’s global purchasing power or national defence industrial capability.

So where does that leave Ukraine? Without considerable and enduring Western military support, it is destined to become overwhelmed – eventually – by Russia’s considerably greater ability to rearm.

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Russian airstrikes target Kyiv

Denuded Western stockpiles cannot meet Ukraine’s needs, but the West does have considerably greater capacity to mobilise its defence industrial base if it chooses to do so.

Earlier last year, the West promised Ukraine it would provide a million rounds of artillery by March 2024. Although Western industry has the capacity to respond, this promise will not be kept.

Western political support for Ukraine remains robust, but this intent has yet to be matched by the requisite collective financial commitment.

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Moment Kyiv building explodes

Western defence planning assumed that high-intensity enduring wars were unlikely to be a near-term issue, and that technology would provide it with an asymmetric military advantage.

However, specialist weapons are expensive and can only be procured in relatively small numbers. And they cannot be easily replaced as the production lines only remain open until orders are fulfilled, and the technology is rapidly obsolete.

Mr Zelenskyy has always claimed that he is fighting Russia on behalf of the West, without it having to commit combatants. But Ukraine cannot prevail without military (and financial) help.

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Proposal after prisoner exchange

An emboldened Putin might not be a threat beyond Ukraine’s shores in the very near term, but a victory in Ukraine would inevitably have long-term consequences. And what would China – with its eye on Taiwan – make of such a victory?

The Ukraine war has exposed some critical shortcomings of the West’s wartime assumptions. Unless it commits to a coordinated long-term strategy to generate the weapons Ukraine needs – and urgently – it will hand Putin the victory he craves.

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Explosives and weapons seized – with 71 arrests – as Syria launches clampdown on Islamic State cells

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Explosives and weapons seized - with 71 arrests - as Syria launches clampdown on Islamic State cells

Syria has carried out pre-emptive operations targeting Islamic State cells – arresting 71 people during 61 raids.

Explosives and weapons were seized, with the interior ministry revealing they were working on “precise” intelligence information.

“Many” of those detained were wanted criminals, with forces obtaining evidence that linked them to terrorist activities.

A statement added that the operation was part of “ongoing national efforts to combat terrorism and confront plots targeting the country’s security and citizens”.

The raids come as Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa travels to Washington for a meeting with Donald Trump, where he will join a coalition against IS.

Meanwhile, the US is preparing to establish a military presence in Damascus to enable a security pact that is being brokered between Syria and Israel.

According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, officials intercepted information that suggested Islamic State was planning to launch new attacks.

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Interior ministry spokesman Nour al Din al Baba told al Ekhbariya: “The current major threat lies in IS’ attempts to reconstitute itself and recruit new members, particularly among the youth.”

Former president Bashar al Assad was ousted late last year after 25 years in power and fled to Russia after his regime came to an end.

Since then, al Sharaa’s transitional administration has been attempting to restore security, introduce economic reforms, and cooperate with international partners.

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On Friday, the UK and US removed sanctions against al Sharaa – following in the footsteps of the UN Security Council.

The State Department said this was “in recognition of the progress demonstrated by the Syrian leadership”, including work to counter narcotics and eliminate chemical weapons.

Al Sharaa had faced a travel ban, asset freeze and an arms embargo for well over a decade because he was previously affiliated with al Qaeda.

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Israel receives hostage’s remains – as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

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Israel receives hostage's remains - as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

Israeli troops in Gaza have received the remains of another hostage.

They have now been taken to the National Institute for Forensic Medicine to be examined.

If it is confirmed that they belong to a hostage, this would mean there are five bodies left to be returned under the terms of a ceasefire that began on 10 October.

Israel has also released the bodies of 285 Palestinians – but this identification process is harder because DNA labs are not allowed in Gaza.

Last night’s transfer is a sign of progress in the fragile truce, but some of the remains handed over in recent weeks have not belonged to any of the missing hostages.

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October: Heavy machinery enters Gaza to clear rubble

At times, Israel has accused Hamas of violating the agreement – however, US President Donald Trump has previously acknowledged conditions on the ground in Gaza are difficult.

Meanwhile, UN officials have warned the levels of humanitarian aid flowing into the territory fall well short of what Palestinians require.

Deputy spokesperson Farhan Haqq said more than 200,000 metric tons of aid is positioned to move in – but only 37,000 tons has arrived so far.

Earlier on Friday, hundreds of mourners attended the military funeral of an Israeli-American soldier whose body was returned on Sunday.

Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP
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Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP

Captain Omer Neutra was 21 when he was killed by Hamas militants who then took his body into Gaza following the October 7th attacks.

Admiral Brad Cooper, who heads up US Central Command, said during the service: “He is the son of two nations.

“He embodied the best of both the United States and Israel. Uniquely, he has firmly cemented his place in history as the hero of two countries.”

His mother Orna addressed her son’s coffin – and said: “We are all left with the vast space between who you were to us and to the world in your life and what you were yet to become. And with the mission to fill that gap with the light and goodness that you are.”

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IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP
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IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP

In other developments, Turkish prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 36 other Israeli officials on charges of carrying out “genocide” in Gaza.

They have been accused of crimes against humanity – but the move is highly symbolic since these officials were unlikely to enter Turkey.

Foreign minister Gideon Saar dismissed the warrants, and said: “Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant Erdogan.”

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Putin’s right-hand man made him look weak – it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin’s top table

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Putin's right-hand man made him look weak - it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin's top table

In Soviet times, Western observers would scrutinise video footage of state occasions, like military parades on Red Square, to try to learn more about Kremlin hierarchy.

Who was positioned closest to the leader? What did the body language say? Which officials were in and out of favour?

In some ways, not much has changed.

The footage present-day Kremlinologists are currently pouring over is from Wednesday’s landmark meeting of Russia’s Security Council, in which Vladimir Putin told his top officials to start drafting proposals for a possible nuclear weapons test.

It was an important moment. Not one you’d expect a trusted lieutenant to miss. But Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, was conspicuously absent – the only permanent member of the Council not present.

According to the Russian business daily, Kommersant, his absence was “coordinated”.

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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP
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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP

Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP
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Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP

That episode alone would have been enough to raise eyebrows.

But coupled with the selection of a more junior official to lead the Russian delegation at the upcoming G20 summit (a role Lavrov has filled in recent years) – well, that’s when questions get asked, namely: Has Moscow’s top diplomat been sidelined?

The question has grown loud enough to force the Kremlin into a denial, but it’s done little to quell speculation that Lavrov has fallen out of favour.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters
Image:
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters

Rumours of a rift have been mounting since Donald Trump called off a planned summit with Putin in Budapest last month, following a phone call between Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio.

According to the Financial Times, it was Lavrov’s uncompromising stance that prompted the White House to put the summit on ice.

Conversations I had with diplomatic sources here at the time revealed a belief that Lavrov had either dropped the ball or gone off-script. Whether it was by accident or by design, his diplomacy (or lack of it) torpedoed the summit and seemingly set back a US-Russia rapprochement.

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September: Anyone downing aircraft in Russian airspace will ‘regret it’

That would’ve angered Putin, who is keen to engage with Washington, not only on Ukraine but on other issues, like nuclear arms control.

More importantly, perhaps, it made the Russian president appear weak – unable to control his foreign minister. And Putin is not a man who likes to be undermined.

Football fans will be familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson’s golden rule of management: Never let a player grow bigger than the club. Putin operates in a similar fashion. Loyalty is valued extremely highly.

Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters
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Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters

North Korea's Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP
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North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP

Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters

If Lavrov has indeed been sidelined, it would be a very significant moment indeed. The 75-year-old has been the face of Russian diplomacy for more than two decades and effectively Putin’s right-hand man for most of the Kremlin leader’s rule.

Known for his abrasive style and acerbic putdowns, Lavrov has also been a vociferous cheerleader for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, he arrived wearing a jumper emblazoned with the initials “CCCP”, the Russian letters for USSR. The apparent message: Ukraine still belongs to Moscow.

And in the melee that immediately followed the presidents’ press statements at the summit, I remember racing over to Lavrov as he was leaving and yelling a question to him through the line of security guards.

He didn’t even turn. Instead, he just shouted back: “Who are you?”

It was typical of a diplomatic heavyweight, who’s known for not pulling his punches. But has that uncompromising approach finally taken its toll?

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