The risk of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza expanding is rising – piling the pressure on the US to intervene
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, arrived in Turkey on Friday for his fourth visit to the region since Hamas launched its attacks on Israel last year.
This flurry of visits reflects the growing international concern that the war in Gaza risks escalating into a wider regional conflict.
The US vetoed the most recent UN Security Council resolutions to bring the conflict to an end to provide time for Israel to achieve its political objectives.
The international community overwhelmingly believes that a two-state solution is the only way to bring peace to the region, but it has become increasingly apparent that such an end-state is not supported by Israel.
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Israel outlines Gaza post-war plan
Although Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant has started to elaborate on what the “day after” the war ends might look like, it is very vague, lacks detail, and appears to be an Israeli solution rather than an international, including Palestinian, collaboration.
And, although the US had hoped that the conflict might be drawing to an end by Christmas last year, Israel has reiterated the war will only end once Hamas has been destroyed.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) believes it has killed or captured 9,000 Hamas fighters out of a pre-war total thought to be around 30,000.
This leaves well over two-thirds of Hamas fighters still at large, which probably explains why Israel believes the conflict could go on for at least another year.
Israel says there are still around 130 Israeli hostages being held captive in Gaza, who were seized in the 7 October raids by Hamas, in which around 1,200 people were killed and 240 taken hostage.
Since then, more than 22,400 people have been killed by the Israeli response, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
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Doctor: ‘5%’ of Gaza people casualties
Risks of escalation in Lebanon, Yemen and the Red Sea
Hamas is no match for the IDF militarily, but if the conflict did escalate into a regional war, pressure would increase on the US to bring their influence to bear to bring the war to an end.
Iran funds Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and it is this influence that is being exploited to ratchet up pressure on the US.
The Israeli border with Lebanon has seen regular exchanges of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah.
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Hezbollah leader warns Israel
However, following the claimed assassination of Hamas deputy military leader Saleh al Arouri on 2 January in southern Beirut, the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed to avenge the attack.
Earlier on Saturday, Hezbollah fired 62 rockets at an Israeli observation point, prompting an Israeli fighter jet to respond with an attack on what the IDF claims was a Hezbollah command post.
In the Red Sea, Iranian-backed Houthis have been disrupting global shipping.
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On Friday, huge crowds gathered in the Yemen capital Sana’a to mark the deaths of 10 Houthi fighters who were attacking a Maersk merchant ship when a US military helicopter intervened.
US forces stationed in the Middle East to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State have also come under more frequent attack – the US has 900 based in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq.
The conflict in Gaza has also distracted world attention, and support, for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
All this increases pressure on the US to find a way to bring the Israel-Hamas war to an end to stop the steady escalation in the region.
Blinken faces struggle to find a solution for all sides
The longer the war in Gaza continues, the greater the risk of a wider conflict.
But, it is not clear what the desired end-state is for Israel.
Rumours abound that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet cannot agree on a future governance model for the region, and if not a two-state solution, then what is the solution?
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with some members of his cabinet. Pic: AP
An Israeli-imposed model would be unlikely to secure international support, and thus lack credibility.
Nobody expects negotiations to be simple, but any agreement has to be mindful of Palestinian concerns, involve the international community, enable peaceful co-existence (eventually) for both Israelis and Palestinians, and create prosperity for Palestinians to replace decades of despair with hope.
This will not be simple to resolve, but failure means perpetuating the endless cycle of violence and devastation that has defined the region over the past eight decades.
A huge weight of responsibility lies on the shoulders of US Secretary of State Blinken.
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.
It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.
Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.
Ronen Bar (left), director of Israel’s security agency, and David Barnea (right), head of Mossad, at a ceremony marking the 7 October Hamas attack. File pic: Reuters
The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.
A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.
Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.
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Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.
Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.
Pope Francis has been honoured with America’s highest civilian award by President Joe Biden, who has described the pontiff as “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world”.
It is the first time Mr Biden, 82, has given the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction during his four years in office.
In a statement, the White House said the award is “presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world peace, or other significant societal, public or private endeavours”.
Mr Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to Pope Francis, 88, in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency. But the president cancelled his visit to monitor the California wildfires.
The White House said Mr Biden bestowed the award during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world.
President Joe Biden presented Bono with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Pic: AP
Denzel Washington was also recognised. Pic: AP
Michael J Fox was bestowed with the honour. Pic: AP
The award can be presented with or without distinction.
Mr Biden presented the medal of freedom – without distinction – on 5 January to several people including fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, humanitarian and U2 singer Bono, fashion designer Ralph Lauren and actors Michael J Fox and Denzel Washington.
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Mr Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognised when he was vice president by then president Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago.
Barack Obama presented Joe Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction in 2017. File pic: AP
The citation for the pope’s honour said his “mission of serving the poor has never ceased”.
“A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths,” it added.
Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
The injured pair are now in Kyiv and communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s domestic intelligence agency, he said.
Ukrainian special forces and paratroopers captured the North Koreans, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.
“As with all prisoners of war, these two North Korean soldiers are receiving the necessary medical assistance,” he said.
“I have instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to grant journalists access to these prisoners.
“The world needs to know the truth about what is happening.”
Mr Zelenskyy said capturing the soldiers alive was “not easy”. He also claimed Russian and North Korean forces fighting in Kursk have tried to conceal the presence of North Korean soldiers, including by killing wounded comrades on the battlefield to avoid their capture and interrogation by Ukraine.
The post included images of the two men – one with a bandage around his jaw and the other around both hands and wrists – and what appeared to be a Russian military document.
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Ukraine’s security service SBU on Saturday provided further details.
It said one of those detained had no documents at all, while the other had been carrying a Russian military ID card in the name of a man from Tuva, a Russian region bordering Mongolia.
“The prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, so communication with them takes place through Korean translators in cooperation with South Korean intelligence,” a statement said.
One of the soldiers claimed he had been told he was going to Russia for training, rather than to fight against Ukraine, according to the SBU.
The agency added both men are being provided with medical care in line with the Geneva Conventions, and investigated “in cooperation with South Korean intelligence”.
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North Korean regular troops entered the war on Russia’s side in October, according to Ukraine and its Western allies.
US, South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence assessments suggest up to 12,000 North Korean combat troops have been sent by Pyongyang under a pact with Moscow.
They believe North Korea has also been supplying Russia with vast quantities of artillery shells.
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