2023 was world’s hottest year on record – and 2024 could be worse
Last year was the hottest on record, new data has confirmed, as scientists warn 2024 could be worse.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service today confirmed 2023 was indeed the warmest year since 1850 – a trend widely predicted before the year was out because it had been so exceptionally hot.
The global average air surface temperature in 2023 was 14.98C – beating the previous record set in 2016 by a “large margin” of 0.17C.
Copernicus found 2023 was on average 1.48C warmer than levels before industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale.
Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, called it a “dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilisation developed”.
But Met Office scientists believe this record could be broken again very soon, with their forecasts suggesting 2024 could be even hotter, bringing more of the extreme weather suffered last year.
Copernicus said it is “likely” the 12-month period ending in January or February this year will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
The smashed record last year is a sign the world is inching closer to reaching 1.5C of warming – the level countries agreed to aim for under the Paris Agreement, and after which point climate impacts become even harder to adapt to.
Surface air temperatures in 2023 were much warmer than the recent average across huge parts of the world
Previous reports had already blamed the rising heat for worsening the wildfires in eastern Canada, drought in the Horn of Africa and intense rain and heatwaves in the UK.
For the UK, “flooding from greater storm intensity is the main impact from hotter temperatures to worry about”, said Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) and physical climate change professor.
The country is also “not immune to more severe impacts around the world, especially those that affect food supplies, migration, conflict, energy security and trade,” he said.
“We cannot let these impacts become the new normal, and nor do we have to,” he added.
We can also limit future warming by “acting urgently to reduce emissions”, added Prof Forster.
Cutting down on coal and limiting methane from fossil fuels and farming could halve the rate of global warming, he said.
Why was 2023 so hot?
The Met Office’s Professor Richard Betts said humans are rapidly heating the planet “by building up greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning and deforestation”.
Last year also saw a transition to a warming weather pattern called El Nino, when heat from the ocean, particularly the central-east equatorial Pacific, releases into the atmosphere.
His colleague Dr Nick Dunstone said: “We expect the strong El Nino in the Pacific to impact the global temperature through 2024. For this reason we are forecasting 2024 to be another record-breaking year, with the possibility of temporarily exceeding 1.5C for the first time.”
Last year was record-breakingly warm in the oceans and polar regions, too.
Copernicus said Antarctic sea ice reached record lows for the time of year in eight of the 12 months, while global average sea surface temperatures reached record levels for the time of year from April until the end of the year.
The ‘good news’, solutions and a warning
Climate scientists said acting quickly would help curb further warming.
Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, said: “Every tenth of a degree matters.
“Even if we end up at 1.6C instead [of 1.5C], it will be so much better than giving up and not trying, and ending up close to 3C, which is where current policies would bring us to.”
Professor John Marsham, an expert in atmospheric science at Leeds University, said: “We desperately need to rapidly cut fossil fuel use and reach net zero to preserve the liveable climate that we all depend on.
“The good news is not only do the public support more action on climate, but that it is often win-win, e.g. UK renewables are both cheap and improve energy security.”
Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the “devastating extreme weather events of 2023 are a warning that such events will continue to get worse until we transition away from fossil fuels and reach net zero emissions”.
He added: “It’s a warning that we will continue to suffer the consequences of our inactions today for generations. A warning that we will regret not acting faster when the technologies to reduce emissions are so readily available.”
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.
It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.
Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.
Ronen Bar (left), director of Israel’s security agency, and David Barnea (right), head of Mossad, at a ceremony marking the 7 October Hamas attack. File pic: Reuters
The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.
A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.
Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.
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Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.
Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.
Pope Francis has been honoured with America’s highest civilian award by President Joe Biden, who has described the pontiff as “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world”.
It is the first time Mr Biden, 82, has given the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction during his four years in office.
In a statement, the White House said the award is “presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world peace, or other significant societal, public or private endeavours”.
Mr Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to Pope Francis, 88, in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency. But the president cancelled his visit to monitor the California wildfires.
The White House said Mr Biden bestowed the award during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world.
President Joe Biden presented Bono with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Pic: AP
Denzel Washington was also recognised. Pic: AP
Michael J Fox was bestowed with the honour. Pic: AP
The award can be presented with or without distinction.
Mr Biden presented the medal of freedom – without distinction – on 5 January to several people including fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, humanitarian and U2 singer Bono, fashion designer Ralph Lauren and actors Michael J Fox and Denzel Washington.
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Mr Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognised when he was vice president by then president Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago.
Barack Obama presented Joe Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction in 2017. File pic: AP
The citation for the pope’s honour said his “mission of serving the poor has never ceased”.
“A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths,” it added.
Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
The injured pair are now in Kyiv and communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s domestic intelligence agency, he said.
Ukrainian special forces and paratroopers captured the North Koreans, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.
“As with all prisoners of war, these two North Korean soldiers are receiving the necessary medical assistance,” he said.
“I have instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to grant journalists access to these prisoners.
“The world needs to know the truth about what is happening.”
Mr Zelenskyy said capturing the soldiers alive was “not easy”. He also claimed Russian and North Korean forces fighting in Kursk have tried to conceal the presence of North Korean soldiers, including by killing wounded comrades on the battlefield to avoid their capture and interrogation by Ukraine.
The post included images of the two men – one with a bandage around his jaw and the other around both hands and wrists – and what appeared to be a Russian military document.
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Ukraine’s security service SBU on Saturday provided further details.
It said one of those detained had no documents at all, while the other had been carrying a Russian military ID card in the name of a man from Tuva, a Russian region bordering Mongolia.
“The prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, so communication with them takes place through Korean translators in cooperation with South Korean intelligence,” a statement said.
One of the soldiers claimed he had been told he was going to Russia for training, rather than to fight against Ukraine, according to the SBU.
The agency added both men are being provided with medical care in line with the Geneva Conventions, and investigated “in cooperation with South Korean intelligence”.
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North Korean regular troops entered the war on Russia’s side in October, according to Ukraine and its Western allies.
US, South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence assessments suggest up to 12,000 North Korean combat troops have been sent by Pyongyang under a pact with Moscow.
They believe North Korea has also been supplying Russia with vast quantities of artillery shells.
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