2023 was world’s hottest year on record – and 2024 could be worse
Last year was the hottest on record, new data has confirmed, as scientists warn 2024 could be worse.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service today confirmed 2023 was indeed the warmest year since 1850 – a trend widely predicted before the year was out because it had been so exceptionally hot.
The global average air surface temperature in 2023 was 14.98C – beating the previous record set in 2016 by a “large margin” of 0.17C.
Copernicus found 2023 was on average 1.48C warmer than levels before industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale.
Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, called it a “dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilisation developed”.
But Met Office scientists believe this record could be broken again very soon, with their forecasts suggesting 2024 could be even hotter, bringing more of the extreme weather suffered last year.
Copernicus said it is “likely” the 12-month period ending in January or February this year will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
The smashed record last year is a sign the world is inching closer to reaching 1.5C of warming – the level countries agreed to aim for under the Paris Agreement, and after which point climate impacts become even harder to adapt to.
Surface air temperatures in 2023 were much warmer than the recent average across huge parts of the world
Previous reports had already blamed the rising heat for worsening the wildfires in eastern Canada, drought in the Horn of Africa and intense rain and heatwaves in the UK.
For the UK, “flooding from greater storm intensity is the main impact from hotter temperatures to worry about”, said Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) and physical climate change professor.
The country is also “not immune to more severe impacts around the world, especially those that affect food supplies, migration, conflict, energy security and trade,” he said.
“We cannot let these impacts become the new normal, and nor do we have to,” he added.
We can also limit future warming by “acting urgently to reduce emissions”, added Prof Forster.
Cutting down on coal and limiting methane from fossil fuels and farming could halve the rate of global warming, he said.
Why was 2023 so hot?
The Met Office’s Professor Richard Betts said humans are rapidly heating the planet “by building up greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning and deforestation”.
Last year also saw a transition to a warming weather pattern called El Nino, when heat from the ocean, particularly the central-east equatorial Pacific, releases into the atmosphere.
His colleague Dr Nick Dunstone said: “We expect the strong El Nino in the Pacific to impact the global temperature through 2024. For this reason we are forecasting 2024 to be another record-breaking year, with the possibility of temporarily exceeding 1.5C for the first time.”
Last year was record-breakingly warm in the oceans and polar regions, too.
Copernicus said Antarctic sea ice reached record lows for the time of year in eight of the 12 months, while global average sea surface temperatures reached record levels for the time of year from April until the end of the year.
The ‘good news’, solutions and a warning
Climate scientists said acting quickly would help curb further warming.
Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, said: “Every tenth of a degree matters.
“Even if we end up at 1.6C instead [of 1.5C], it will be so much better than giving up and not trying, and ending up close to 3C, which is where current policies would bring us to.”
Professor John Marsham, an expert in atmospheric science at Leeds University, said: “We desperately need to rapidly cut fossil fuel use and reach net zero to preserve the liveable climate that we all depend on.
“The good news is not only do the public support more action on climate, but that it is often win-win, e.g. UK renewables are both cheap and improve energy security.”
Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the “devastating extreme weather events of 2023 are a warning that such events will continue to get worse until we transition away from fossil fuels and reach net zero emissions”.
He added: “It’s a warning that we will continue to suffer the consequences of our inactions today for generations. A warning that we will regret not acting faster when the technologies to reduce emissions are so readily available.”
World
European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia
Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.
The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kiev. Pic: Reuters
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained
The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
Read more:
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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
World
Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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Conclaves are famously unpredictable affairs – and once again the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope caught many by surprise.
The newly elected Pope Leo XIV won the consensus of the 133 cardinal electors after only four ballots – a fast process for a diverse college of cardinals.
Though his name had circulated among some Vatican watchers, other cardinals had emerged as clear front-runners, including Pietro Parolin – the Vatican’s number two who would have been the first Italian in almost 50 years to become pontiff – or Luis Tagle, a Filipino cardinal looking to become the first Asian pope.
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What are the conclave’s secrecy measures?
Instead, it was the first North American to win the highly secretive process.
So, what went on behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel?
Until Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead, gathering between 45 and 55 votes, sources say.
A substantial number, but well short of the 89 votes he needed for a two-thirds majority.
At this point, Cardinal Prevost had between 34 and 44 votes.
But as the Italian struggled to grow his support during the first three rounds of voting, he stepped down from the race, endorsing Prevost instead, Sky News understands.
Read more:
Who is Pope Leo XIV?
List of demands in new pope’s in-tray
How does new pope compare to his predecessors?
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Who is Pope Leo?
An internal battle between Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David – both cardinals hailing from Asia – cancelled out both of their chances.
And a contender from Africa – the most conservative sector of the church – was never likely for a conclave where the overwhelming majority of cardinals had been appointed by Francis, a progressive pontiff, sources say.
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Moment new pope emerges on balcony
An American pope has long been seen as highly improbable, given the geopolitical power of the US.
But Cardinal Prevost was able to draw from across the groups making up the electors: moderate US cardinals, South American cardinals and many European cardinals all coalesced around him.
Italian newspaper La Repubblica said Prevost “certainly attracted cross-party preferences, both ideologically and geographically”.
“In the conclave he was the least American of Americans: Born in Chicago, he lived 20 years in Peru,” the newspaper said.
It added: “As a man used to teamwork, Prevost appeared to many as the right man to make the papacy evolve into a more collegial form.”
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