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A food delivery courier for Meituan in Beijing, China, on Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2023. A surge in sales expected for Meituan may be a catalyst to its shares, which have outperformed peers as services spending turns out to be a rare bright spot amid deepening investor pessimism. Source: Bloomberg

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Since the beginning of 2023, Chinese food delivery leader Meituan has lost a staggering $82 billion in market capitalization, as fears over increasing competition and a warning from its management about a slowdown in its main food delivery business have spooked investors.

The tech giant’s market cap has tumbled nearly 60% to 441.06 billion Hong Kong dollars ($56.4 billion) from HK$1.08 trillion ($138.2 billion) at the beginning of 2023, according to LSEG data.

Meituan’s stock has plummeted nearly 85% from its all-time high of HK$460 (about $58.91) hit on Feb. 18, 2021 to HK$70.55 on Jan. 9, LSEG data showed.

The company still dominates China’s food delivery industry, with almost 70% of the market share in the mainland, according to 2022 data from research firm ChinaIRN.

But competition has been rising, especially from Alibaba-owned Ele.me, another prominent food delivery company in China.

“Based on my experience, Ele.me is more aggressive [than Meituan] and have more approaches to giving [discount] coupons,” Feifei Shen, director at The Blueshirt Group and a food delivery user in China told CNBC.

“Usually, I feel I can get cheaper prices for my orders on Ele.me,” said Shen. “Only when I don’t have a coupon, I will think about Meituan.”

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Meituan’s share performance

For the quarter ended Sept. 30, Alibaba’s local services segment – which includes food delivery – saw revenue increase by 16%, driven by strong growth in both Ele.me and its mobility business Amap, the tech giant said.

Chinese media reported on Dec. 19 that ByteDance-owned short-video app Douyin was in talks with Alibaba to acquire its Ele.me food delivery business, causing Meituan shares to drop.

Hong Kong-based Blue Lotus Research Institute said the fall in Meituan shares was because of reports that suggested ByteDance could buy Ele.me.

Ele.me and Douyin joined hands in August 2022 to allow the food delivery firm’s merchants to reach users of the short-video app.

ByteDance, which told CNBC in February last year that it was testing a type of food delivery service in China via Douyin, reportedly denied it was in talks with Alibaba to acquire Ele.me.

Meituan shares were also hit after the company warned of a slowdown in its food delivery business in the fourth quarter of 2023, despite reporting positive results in the previous quarter.

Several factors including the macro environment and the warm weather were affecting delivery volumes, CFO Shao Hui Chen said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call.

“On financial outlook, we think Q4 revenue year-over-year growth for food delivery will be slightly lower than the Q3 growth rate,” he said.

Following that call, Meituan’s Hong Kong-listed shares plunged 12% to their lowest since March 2020, according to LSEG data.

Analysts hold ‘buy’ ratings

Despite macro uncertainties, analysts are still optimistic on Meituan’s outlook. On average, they have a “buy” rating with a price target of HK$149.34, according to FactSet data.

Fitch Ratings on Dec. 18 revised Meituan’s outlook to positive, from stable.

“Meituan’s strong cash flow generation in 9M23, which is beyond Fitch’s forecast, can be sustained, as its profitability has improved due to narrowing losses from the new initiatives segment and strong market positions in core segments,” said Fitch in a report.

“However, uncertainty remains over the impact on profitability from … competition from Douyin, which could result in operating cash flow volatility over the next 6-12 months,” Fitch said.

But experts were bearish on ByteDance’s possible acquisition of Ele.me.

“An entry into domestic food delivery is a daunting challenge that yields very little benefits for ByteDance,” said Blue Lotus Research Institute in a Dec. 19 report, reiterating its “buy” rating on Meituan with a price target of HK$118.

“Food delivery is a very heavily operations-focused business that requires a lot of operational efficiency and (crucially) leadership attention,” said tech research firm Momentum Works in December. “Buying and operating a large food delivery platform might not be the best solution for Douyin.”

The complex food delivery terrain makes it difficult for other players to pose a formidable challenge to Meituan, which is why analysts continue to favor the market leader.

“The fact that Ele.me falls much behind Meituan in market share is probably telling – when you are not the core of the group, your managers do not have the same level of commitment as compared to Meituan, for which success of food delivery is life and death,” tech research firm Momentum Works’ Jerry Chao said.

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These underperforming groups may deliver AI-electric appeal. Here’s why.

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These underperforming groups may deliver AI-electric appeal. Here's why.

Reshoring and infrastructure products could be the next ETF play after AI, say ETF experts

Industrial and infrastructure stocks may soon share the spotlight with the artificial intelligence trade.

According to ETF Action’s Mike Atkins, there’s a bullish setup taking shape due to both policy and consumer trends. His prediction comes during a volatile month for Big Tech and AI stocks.

“You’re seeing kind of the old-school infrastructure, industrial products that have not done as well over the years,” the firm’s founding partner told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “But there’s a big drive… kind of away from globalization into this reshoring concept, and I think that has legs.”

Global X CEO Ryan O’Connor is also optimistic because the groups support the AI boom. His firm runs the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE), which tracks companies involved in construction and industrial projects.

“Infrastructure is something that’s near and dear to our heart based off of PAVE, which is our largest ETF in the market,” said O’Connor in the same interview. “We think some of these reshoring efforts that you can get through some of these infrastructure places are an interesting one.”

The Global X’s infrastructure exchange-traded fund is up 16% so far this year, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which includes AI bellwethers Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom, is up 42%, as of Friday’s close.

Both ETFs are lower so far this month — but Global X’s infrastructure ETF is performing better. Its top holdings, according to the firm’s website, are Howmet Aerospace, Quanta Services and Parker Hannifin.

Supporting the AI boom

He also sees electrification as a positive driver.

“All of the things that are going to be required for us to continue to support this AI boom, the electrification of the U.S. economy, is certainly one of them,” he said, noting the firm’s U.S. Electrification ETF (ZAP) gives investors exposure to them. The ETF is up almost 24% so far this year.

The Global X U.S. Electrification ETF is also performing a few percentage points better than the VanEck Semiconductor ETF for the month.

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How tariffs and AI are giving secondhand platforms like ThredUp a boost

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How tariffs and AI are giving secondhand platforms like ThredUp a boost

At ThredUp‘s 600,000-square-foot warehouse in Suwanee, Georgia, roughly 40,000 pieces of used clothing are processed each day. The company’s logistics network — four facilities across the U.S. — now rivals that of some fast-fashion giants.

“This is the largest garment-on-hanger system in the world,” said Justin Pina, ThredUp’s senior director of operations. “We can hold more than 3.5 million items here.”

Secondhand shopping is booming. The global secondhand apparel market is expected to reach $367 billion by 2029, growing almost three times faster than the overall apparel market, according to GlobalData.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs were billed as a way to bring manufacturing back home. But the measures hit one of America’s most import-dependent industries: fashion.

About 97 percent of clothing sold in the U.S. is imported, mostly from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh and India, according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association.

For years, Gen Z shoppers have been driving the rise of secondhand fashion, but now more Americans are catching on.

“When tariffs raise those costs, resale platforms suddenly look like the smart buy. This isn’t just a fad,” said Jasmine Enberg, co-CEO of Scalable. “Tariffs are accelerating trends that were already reshaping the way Americans shop.”

For James Reinhart, ThredUp’s CEO, the company is already seeing it play out.

“The business is free-cash-flow positive and growing double digits,” said Reinhart. “We feel really good about the economics, gross margins near 80% and operations built entirely within the U.S.”

ThredUp reported that revenue grew 34% year over year in the third quarter. The company also said it acquired more new customers in the quarter than at any other time in its history, with new buyer growth up 54% from the same period last year.

“If tariffs add 20% to 30% to retail prices, that’s a huge advantage for resale,” said Dylan Carden, research analyst at William Blair & Company. “Pre-owned items aren’t subject to those duties, so demand naturally shifts.”

Inside the ThredUp warehouse, where CNBC got a behind-the-scenes look. automation hums alongside human workers. AI systems photograph, categorize, and price thousands of garments per hour. For Reinhart, the technology is key to scaling resale like retail.

“AI has really accelerated adoption,” said Reinhart. “It’s helping us improve discovery, styling, and personalization for buyers.”

That tech wave extends beyond ThredUp. Fashion-tech startups Phia, co-founded by Phoebe Gates and Sophia Kianni, is using AI to scan thousands of listings across retail and resale in seconds.

“The fact that we’ve driven millions in transaction volume shows how big this need is,” Gates said. “People want smarter, cheaper ways to shop.”

ThredUp is betting that domestic infrastructure, automation, and AI will keep it ahead of the curve, and that tariffs meant to revive U.S. manufacturing could end up powering a new kind of American fashion economy.

“The future of fashion will be more sustainable than it is today,” said Reinhart. “And secondhand will be at the center of it.”

Watch the video to learn more.

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AI anxiety on the rise: Startup founders react to bubble fears

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AI anxiety on the rise: Startup founders react to bubble fears

Markets were on edge this week as a steady stream of negative headlines around the artificial intelligence trade stoked fears of a bubble.

Famed short-seller Michael Burry cast doubt on the sustainability of AI earnings. Concerns around the levels of debt funding AI infrastructure buildouts grew louder. And once high-flyers like CoreWeave tanked on disappointing guidance.

CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa asked those at the epicenter of the boom for their take, sitting down with the founders of two of the buzziest AI startups.

Amjad Masad, founder and CEO of AI coding startup Replit, admits there’s been a cooldown.

“Early on in the year, there was the vibe coding hype market, where everyone’s heard about vibe coding. Everyone wanted to go try it. The tools were not as good as they are today. So I think that burnt a lot of people,” Masad said. “So there’s a bit of a vibe coding, I would say, hype slow down, and a lot of companies that were making money are not making as much money.”

Masad added that a lot companies were publishing their annualized recurring revenue figures every week, and “now they’re not.”

Navrina Singh, founder and CEO of startup Credo AI, which helps enterprises with AI oversight and risk management, is seeing more excitement than fear.

“I don’t think we are in a bubble,” she said. “I really believe this is the new reality of the world that we are living in. As we know, AI is going to be and already is our biggest growth driver for businesses. So it just makes sense that there has to be more investment, not only on the capability side, governance side, but energy and infrastructure side as well.”

Watch this video to learn more. 

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