Coinbase threatened by bitcoin ETFs after almost 400% surge in stock last year
Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer of Coinbase Global Inc., speaks during the Messari Mainnet summit in New York, on Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Now that the SEC has approved the creation of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, Coinbase’s position in the crypto market is poised to take a dramatic turn.
In the weeks ahead, Coinbase will help shepherd some of the biggest names in asset management, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree, into the digital asset ecosystem as their custodial partner of choice. That means Coinbase will be central to the storage and safekeeping of the assets for those firms.
While custody revenue presents a big growth opportunity for Coinbase in the near term, some industry analysts are concerned that the company’s core transaction business is at risk due to the myriad ways investors will be able to access bitcoin. Instead of having to go to an asset exchange such as Kraken, Binance, or Coinbase, they’ll be able to invest in the digital currency through the same mechanism they already use to buy stock and bond ETFs.
In a report Dec. 4, analysts at Bernstein predicted that in less than five years, 10% of the global supply of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, or roughly $300 billion, will be managed by ETFs. The firm called it the “largest pipe ever built between traditional financial markets and crypto financial markets.”
In 2023, Coinbase’s stock was one of the top performers in the tech industry, soaring almost 400%. Much of that rally was tied to bitcoin, which increased 150%. But part of the outperformance relative to bitcoin was due to the excitement that new ETFs would drive more interest in crypto and be a boon for Coinbase.
“ETFs should expand the pie and bring new people and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” Coinbase Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi said on the company’s most recent earnings call in November. “They should add credibility to the market, and we should see increased liquidity and market stability as we’ve seen with other asset classes such as gold.”
From June 15, the day that BlackRock — with its $9 trillion in assets under management — filed for a so-called spot bitcoin ETF and named Coinbase its crypto custodian, shares in the exchange rose from around $54 to over $170 by the end of the year.
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a November report that Coinbase would be a key beneficiary of the coming ETF boom, given the immediate upside of custody fees from asset managers.
“We estimate Bitcoin custody and surveillance revenue will more than offset decline in Bitcoin trading volume as assets migrate to ETFs,” the analysts said.
Some of the momentum on Wall Street has faded to start 2024, with the stock down 14% since the calendar turned. According to Mizuho analysts, there could be more pain to come.
“With the hype around Bitcoin ETFs likely to reach a climax in the coming weeks, COIN bulls could experience a rough awakening when they realize how minimal the revenue impact is,” Mizuho wrote in a note Thursday.
Mizuho’s analysts have the equivalent of a sell rating on the stock and were bearish throughout last year’s rally, finishing 2023 with a $54 price target, by far the lowest among analysts tracked by FactSet.
The battle for market share
Almost half of Coinbase’s revenue comes from the fees it charges on transactions, meaning the company needs people to keep using the exchange to buy and trade bitcoin and other digital currencies.
In the third quarter in 2023, total transaction revenue accounted for 46% of net revenue. However, Coinbase has been diversifying into new businesses. In 2022, transactions made up closer to 75% of revenue.
More than one-quarter of Coinbase’s revenue in the third quarter came from interest income on the exchange’s stablecoin reserves, including Circle’s U.S. dollar-pegged USDC coin. Stablecoin revenue more than doubled from a year earlier primarily due to rising interest rates.
“A few years ago, our business at Coinbase was 95% trading fees, and we made a big effort around the time it went public to start diversifying our revenue,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a recent interview. “What’s great is that now we have multiple sources of revenue — some of them in a high interest rate environment go up, some of them in a low interest rate environment go up.”
Still, transaction fees remain a key income driver for the exchange. And unlike trading platform Robinhood, which enables investments in a wide array of asset types, Coinbase doesn’t allow for trading of ETFs.
“Spot bitcoin ETFs appear poised to take volume away from crypto exchanges,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar.
JPMorgan anticipates that new account growth will slow as “novice crypto investors get their initial exposure and possibly final exposure through ETFs rather than Coinbase,” adding that many of these neophyte traders will never go beyond bitcoin, “thus never needing the services of a Coinbase.”
Mizuho sees the income from custody fees as fairly modest given how far investors have pushed up the stock. The firm predicts ETF approval may add just $25 million to $30 million in annual custody fees, with another $200 million to $210 million of new revenue “if incremental Bitcoin inflows generate additional spot trading opportunities.”
With a collective gain of up to $240 million in additional annual revenue, “this represents just mid-to-high single-digit percentage upside vs. current 2024 consensus,” the Mizuho analysts wrote. They said they “do not believe the nearly 400% increase in the stock in anticipation of ETF approval justifies our reasonable estimate for the ETFs’ actual contribution to revenue.”
A Coinbase spokesperson told CNBC in an emailed statement that, in addition to custody fees, the company will make money by providing services such as agency trading, matching and settlement, and financing to ETF issuers.
“The platform believes that spot ETFs will be a positive catalyst for the entire crypto space, adding credibility, increasing liquidity, and bringing new participants and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” the spokesperson said, reiterating prior comments from Coinbase executives.
Competition could also create pricing pressure.
ARK, Invesco, Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie are all offering deals that involve fee-free trading for a certain period of time. Others are opting for discounted fees.
Coinbase’s transaction fee varies, with a max of 0.6% on transactions up to $10,000 in value. In the company’s most recent quarterly earnings call, Choi said that Coinbase doesn’t plan to reduce transaction fees to make them more competitive with other platforms where ETFs are being traded at significantly lower prices.
The transaction charges on Coinbase also vary between its Pro platform and the retail app, where fees are higher. For retail transactions up to $1,000, the fee ranges from 1.5% to 3%.
However, JPMorgan analysts said greater efficiency and transparency in equity markets, paired with lower costs to execute, could drive more cryptocurrency trading to ETFs over time, which could ultimately “pressure Coinbase to lower commissions and to narrow trading spreads, reversing the multi-quarter increase we’ve witnessed in Coinbase’s retail revenue capture.”
Still, Coinbase has its believers among crypto enthusiasts, such as Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures.
“They are essential infrastructure in terms of custody, trading, and surveillance for the majority of the ETF proposals,” Carter said. “Even though it might affect their fees at the margin I think they are still winners here.”
WATCH: Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton on changes in bitcoin trading
The US Department of Energy (DOE) today announced $1.2 billion in financing to replace Puerto Rico’s fossil fuel plants with solar and battery storage through 2032.
The DOE’s Loan Programs Office announced two conditional commitments and one loan closing to power producers in Puerto Rico. Each supports a project contracted with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority. The announcements include:
- The closing of a $584.5 million loan guarantee to subsidiaries of Convergent Energy to finance a 100 MW solar farm with a 55 MW (55 MWh) battery energy storage system (BESS) in the municipality of Coamo and BESS installations in the municipalities of Caguas (25MW/100MWh), Peñuelas (100MW/400MWh), and Ponce (up to 100MW/400MWh)
- A conditional commitment for a loan guarantee of up to $133.6 million to a subsidiary of Infinigen for a 32.1 MW solar farm with an integrated 14.45 MW (4.76 MWh) BESS, and a co-located standalone 50 MW (200 MWh) BESS expansion in the municipality of Yabucoa
- A conditional commitment for a loan guarantee of up to $489.4 million to a subsidiary of Pattern Energy for three stand-alone BESS in the municipalities of Arecibo (50 MW/200 MWh), and Santa Isabel (50 MW /200 MWh and 80 MW/320 MW), and a 70 MW solar farm with an integrated BESS in the municipality of Arecibo.
If all are finalized, these projects would more than double LPO’s support for utility-scale solar generation and battery energy storage in Puerto Rico.
LPO provides low-cost financing and a rigorous due diligence process, making it a valuable resource for Puerto Rico as it works to rebuild an affordable, reliable, and clean energy system. As a result of reliance on imported fuel, the persistent threat of tropical storms, and underinvested infrastructure, Puerto Ricans today face average energy costs that are twice the US average – all while consuming only one-quarter of the energy of the US per capita.
LPO’s initial loan to a power producer in Puerto Rico, Project Marahu, closed in October 2024, and when complete will add more than 200 MW of solar and up to 285 MW of stand-alone energy storage to Puerto Rico’s grid.
Through its September 2023 partial loan guarantee to Project Hestia, LPO also supports virtual power plant (VPP)-ready rooftop solar and battery storage installations in Puerto Rico. As a nationwide project, Hestia’s sponsor is committed to at least 20% of installations under Project Hestia going to homeowners in Puerto Rico.
As part of its procurement plan, Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority seeks to install 1,500 MW of battery storage and requires a minimum capacity of storage to be co-located with each utility-scale solar project. Energy storage systems currently online in Puerto Rico are being dispatched every day.
When including Marahu, LPO’s closed and conditionally committed financing supports over 100% of the capacity Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority aimed to procure under its initial request for energy storage project proposals, the first of six.
Read more: Cleantech investments to top fossil fuels for the first time in 2025
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Chevy just introduced new deals on the Equinox and Blazer EV models to make them even more affordable. With 0% interest and a new trade-in bonus, Chevy is offering over $5,000 in savings.
Chevy adds new Equinox and Blazer EV deals in January
Although the Chevy Equinox EV is already “the most affordable” EV in its class with over 315 miles range, it’s getting even cheaper.
Earlier this week, Chevy launched new deals on the 2024 Equinox and Blazer EV models. According to a note sent to dealers, viewed by CarsDirect, the electric SUVs are now available with 0% APR financing for 60 months. You can also choose from 0.9% AP for 72 months and 2.9% APR for 84 months.
This marks the best financing offer on Chevy’s newest EVs to date. The previous best rates were 0.9% APR for 60 months, 3.9% for 72 months, and 5.9% for the longer 84-month option.
On a 7-year $45,000 loan, online auto research firm CarsDirect estimates the new deals amount to around a $5,200 price cut. The lower APR rates are already offered on the Chevrolet Silverado EV pickup.
In addition, Chevy is offering a trade-in bonus of up to $3,000 on the Silverado EV and $1,000 on the electric Equinox and Blazer models. If you choose to lease, the bonus is cut in half: $1,500 for the Silverado and $500 for the electric SUVs.
Chevy’s new EV deals started on January 14 and run through March 3, 2025. The deals come as rivals like Hyundai and Ford recently launched new EV promotions.
On Thursday, Hyundai launched a new promo on the upgraded 2025 IONIQ 5, which includes monthly leases as low as $199 and a free ChargePoint home EV charger (or $400 charging credit). Meanwhile, Ford extended its “Power Promise” program earlier this month, which also includes a free home charger, among several other benefits.
The 2024 Chevy Equinox EV started at $41,900 with up to 315 miles range. Prices for the electric Chevy Blazer start at $43,690 with up to 279 miles range.
If you are ready to try out Chevy’s new electric SUVs for yourself, we’ve got you covered. You can use our links below to view offers on the Chevy Equinox, Silverado, and Blazer EV models near you.
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss non-Tesla EVs getting Supercharger access, Cybertruck sales in the spotlight, Rivian getting some money from Biden, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET):
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