Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer of Coinbase Global Inc., speaks during the Messari Mainnet summit in New York, on Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Now that the SEC has approved the creation of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, Coinbase’s position in the crypto market is poised to take a dramatic turn.
In the weeks ahead, Coinbase will help shepherd some of the biggest names in asset management, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree, into the digital asset ecosystem as their custodial partner of choice. That means Coinbase will be central to the storage and safekeeping of the assets for those firms.
While custody revenue presents a big growth opportunity for Coinbase in the near term, some industry analysts are concerned that the company’s core transaction business is at risk due to the myriad ways investors will be able to access bitcoin. Instead of having to go to an asset exchange such as Kraken, Binance, or Coinbase, they’ll be able to invest in the digital currency through the same mechanism they already use to buy stock and bond ETFs.
In a report Dec. 4, analysts at Bernstein predicted that in less than five years, 10% of the global supply of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, or roughly $300 billion, will be managed by ETFs. The firm called it the “largest pipe ever built between traditional financial markets and crypto financial markets.”
In 2023, Coinbase’s stock was one of the top performers in the tech industry, soaring almost 400%. Much of that rally was tied to bitcoin, which increased 150%. But part of the outperformance relative to bitcoin was due to the excitement that new ETFs would drive more interest in crypto and be a boon for Coinbase.
“ETFs should expand the pie and bring new people and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” Coinbase Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi said on the company’s most recent earnings call in November. “They should add credibility to the market, and we should see increased liquidity and market stability as we’ve seen with other asset classes such as gold.”
From June 15, the day that BlackRock — with its $9 trillion in assets under management — filed for a so-called spot bitcoin ETF and named Coinbase its crypto custodian, shares in the exchange rose from around $54 to over $170 by the end of the year.
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a November report that Coinbase would be a key beneficiary of the coming ETF boom, given the immediate upside of custody fees from asset managers.
“We estimate Bitcoin custody and surveillance revenue will more than offset decline in Bitcoin trading volume as assets migrate to ETFs,” the analysts said.
Some of the momentum on Wall Street has faded to start 2024, with the stock down 14% since the calendar turned. According to Mizuho analysts, there could be more pain to come.
“With the hype around Bitcoin ETFs likely to reach a climax in the coming weeks, COIN bulls could experience a rough awakening when they realize how minimal the revenue impact is,” Mizuho wrote in a note Thursday.
Mizuho’s analysts have the equivalent of a sell rating on the stock and were bearish throughout last year’s rally, finishing 2023 with a $54 price target, by far the lowest among analysts tracked by FactSet.
The battle for market share
Almost half of Coinbase’s revenue comes from the fees it charges on transactions, meaning the company needs people to keep using the exchange to buy and trade bitcoin and other digital currencies.
In the third quarter in 2023, total transaction revenue accounted for 46% of net revenue. However, Coinbase has been diversifying into new businesses. In 2022, transactions made up closer to 75% of revenue.
More than one-quarter of Coinbase’s revenue in the third quarter came from interest income on the exchange’s stablecoin reserves, including Circle’s U.S. dollar-pegged USDC coin. Stablecoin revenue more than doubled from a year earlier primarily due to rising interest rates.
“A few years ago, our business at Coinbase was 95% trading fees, and we made a big effort around the time it went public to start diversifying our revenue,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a recent interview. “What’s great is that now we have multiple sources of revenue — some of them in a high interest rate environment go up, some of them in a low interest rate environment go up.”
Still, transaction fees remain a key income driver for the exchange. And unlike trading platform Robinhood, which enables investments in a wide array of asset types, Coinbase doesn’t allow for trading of ETFs.
“Spot bitcoin ETFs appear poised to take volume away from crypto exchanges,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar.
JPMorgan anticipates that new account growth will slow as “novice crypto investors get their initial exposure and possibly final exposure through ETFs rather than Coinbase,” adding that many of these neophyte traders will never go beyond bitcoin, “thus never needing the services of a Coinbase.”
Mizuho sees the income from custody fees as fairly modest given how far investors have pushed up the stock. The firm predicts ETF approval may add just $25 million to $30 million in annual custody fees, with another $200 million to $210 million of new revenue “if incremental Bitcoin inflows generate additional spot trading opportunities.”
With a collective gain of up to $240 million in additional annual revenue, “this represents just mid-to-high single-digit percentage upside vs. current 2024 consensus,” the Mizuho analysts wrote. They said they “do not believe the nearly 400% increase in the stock in anticipation of ETF approval justifies our reasonable estimate for the ETFs’ actual contribution to revenue.”
A Coinbase spokesperson told CNBC in an emailed statement that, in addition to custody fees, the company will make money by providing services such as agency trading, matching and settlement, and financing to ETF issuers.
“The platform believes that spot ETFs will be a positive catalyst for the entire crypto space, adding credibility, increasing liquidity, and bringing new participants and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” the spokesperson said, reiterating prior comments from Coinbase executives.
Competition could also create pricing pressure.
ARK, Invesco, Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie are all offering deals that involve fee-free trading for a certain period of time. Others are opting for discounted fees.
Coinbase’s transaction fee varies, with a max of 0.6% on transactions up to $10,000 in value. In the company’s most recent quarterly earnings call, Choi said that Coinbase doesn’t plan to reduce transaction fees to make them more competitive with other platforms where ETFs are being traded at significantly lower prices.
The transaction charges on Coinbase also vary between its Pro platform and the retail app, where fees are higher. For retail transactions up to $1,000, the fee ranges from 1.5% to 3%.
However, JPMorgan analysts said greater efficiency and transparency in equity markets, paired with lower costs to execute, could drive more cryptocurrency trading to ETFs over time, which could ultimately “pressure Coinbase to lower commissions and to narrow trading spreads, reversing the multi-quarter increase we’ve witnessed in Coinbase’s retail revenue capture.”
Still, Coinbase has its believers among crypto enthusiasts, such as Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures.
“They are essential infrastructure in terms of custody, trading, and surveillance for the majority of the ETF proposals,” Carter said. “Even though it might affect their fees at the margin I think they are still winners here.”
Honda said it will reduce its planned EV investments by $21 billion, claiming that it’s doing so due to a slowdown in EV sales which isn’t actually happening.
Instead, it will focus on hybrids, which get 100% of their energy from fossil fuels, and which cause climate change and poison the air you breathe.
Honda’s announcement came earlier today in Japan, stating that it will scrap its plan for EVs to be 30% of its global vehicle sales by 2030, citing a “slowdown in the expansion of the EV market due to several factors, including changes in environmental regulations.” It will reduce planned investment from 10 trillion yen ($69 billion) to 7 trillion ($48 billion).
Honda didn’t precisely state its new timeline, but said that EVs would fall below the previously-announced target of 30% by 2030.
It instead said it would focus on hybrids, which get 100% of their energy from fossil fuels, and thus pollute the air you breathe and cause climate change with every stroke of their outdated, inefficient engines.
(*Note: Honda’s chart says “HEV,” not “PHEV” – it’s possible they’re including plug-ins here, and thus some of these vehicles will get some of their energy from something other than fossil fuels, but HEV typically means conventional hybrids which get all of their energy from gas)
Honda said that these gas-guzzling hybrids will “be introduced to market in 2027 onward,” which means they will continue driving on roads and polluting the Earth for decades, including after Honda’s 2050 carbon-neutrality target.
Honda’s previous plan for 30% by 2030 was already quite low compared to other global automakers, even after many of these companies have walked back their EV plans. Most of these other companies also cited the nonexistent slowdown in EV sales.
Honda said that its future hybrid models will “play a key role during the transition period toward the popularization of EVs.” In some of the world’s more profitable countries for auto sales, EVs are already at or nearing majority market share.
Electrek’s Take
It’s estimated that this year – not 2030 – 25% of cars sold globally will be EVs. So, any company that sells less than that is lagging behind the curve, losing ground to companies that are ready for the transition that is already happening. When you are behind, the way to catch up is to speed up, not to slow down.
This 25% EV sales projection shouldn’t be a surprise, because EV sales have been rising globally for many years now, and haven’t stopped doing so, as we keep having to point out. In fact, the opposite is happening.
Honda also mentioned changes in environmental regulations, stating that these regulations were “the premise for the widespread adoption of EVs.” In the same statement, it mentioned its “ambitious goal to ‘achieve carbon neutrality for all products and corporate activities’” – so I guess the mention of regulations as the actual premise means all that carbon neutrality stuff was just greenwashing, after all.
Further, those regulations are likely not changing nearly enough to make up for Honda’s change in strategy here. Despite the protests of a former reality TV host and convicted felon (who is Constitutionally barred from holding office in the US, by the way), it is unlikely that already-filed regulations, which cover the period from 2027-2032, will be changed.
But the US isn’t the world – maybe Honda was talking about other major markets?
Well, Europe isn’t changing its regulations, either – the bloc recently said it will give automakers “breathing room”, allowing them to use the average of their emissions from 2025-2027 to comply with new emissions regulations, but this will still require a steeper ramp-up by the end of that period if automakers are not in compliance today. In other words, those regulations have not been softened on a 2030 timeline, only on a 2025 one.
And in China, well, new regulations went into effect a couple years ago, but they almost didn’t need to, because ICE cars are virtually unsellable there these days. EV adoption is rising incredibly rapidly in China, driven by local brands which Chinese customers trust more, and which have more nifty features than the models global automakers are offering there.
In fact, Honda’s profit is slipping precisely because of the rapid advancement of the Chinese auto market. AP reports that Honda’s Q1 profits slipped by 24.5%, driven largely by sliding sales in China in the face of local EV competition. How’s that for “slowing demand.”
Honda does sell one EV in the US market, the Prologue, which is selling like gangbusters. It’s the fifth-best-selling EV in the country, and was a large part of what drove US EV sales into growth in April. It’s also Honda’s fastest-growing model – though, to be fair, that does count from a very low baseline, as the model was only trickling out onto the market a year ago.
I guess if you want to go out of business and bring your country and the planet down with you, this is the way to do it.
To reduce your carbon footprint and live more sustainably, consider going solar. EnergySage is a free service that connects you with trusted, reputable installers in your area – without having to give up your phone number until you select an installer. Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way through EnergySage. Get started today! – ad*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
Chinese electric scooter manufacturer NIU Technologies (NASDAQ: NIU) is experiencing a remarkable surge in 2025, with its stock price nearly doubling year-to-date. This impressive performance is fueled by a significant increase in electric moped sales, particularly within its domestic market, despite facing challenges such as international tariffs and rising freight costs.
Domestic market is driving growth
In the first quarter of 2025, NIU reported a 57.4% year-over-year increase in e-scooter sales, totaling 203,313 units. Notably, 183,065 of these units were sold in China, marking a 66.2% increase compared to the same period last year.
This domestic growth was boosted by China’s consumer trade-in program, which incentivizes the replacement of older scooters with newer, more efficient models.
The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 682.0 million (approximately US $94 million), a 35.1% increase from the previous year. However, the average revenue per e-scooter decreased by 14.2% to RMB 3,354, indicating a shift towards more affordable models.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
NIU CEO Yan Li explained: “In China, we are advancing our intelligent product development strategy by integrating automotive-grade technologies such as millimeter-wave radar, dual-channel ABS, and AI Smart Ecosystem to enhance the user experience. Our retail network has continued to expand in-line with our expectations, with new stores opening during the quarter. This synergistic combination of product innovation and omni-channel growth is driving measurable increases in domestic sales and market penetration.”
International challenges remain
While domestic sales certainly provided strong tailwinds for NIU, international markets still present challenges for the company. Sales outside China grew by a modest 6.4%, totaling 20,248 units. Factors such as US tariffs and increased freight costs were noted in NIU’s Q1 2025 earnings report as impacting international margins. Despite these hurdles, international sales contributed RMB 60 million (approximately US $8 million) to the quarterly revenue, a 22.4% increase year-over-year.
NIU’s gross margin declined to 17.3% from 18.9% in the same quarter last year, reflecting the pressure from international trade policies and logistics costs. Nevertheless, the company’s net loss narrowed to RMB 38.8 million, down from RMB 54.8 million in Q1 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency. While still operating at a net loss of around US 5.4 million, these numbers indicate a strong turnaround for the company – reflected by the nearly doubling of NIU’s stock price so far in 2025.
Looking ahead, NIU is anticipating continued growth and projecting Q2 2025 revenue to increase by 40% to 50% year-over-year. The company says it is also exploring strategies to mitigate international challenges, such as diversifying its production and focusing on markets less affected by tariffs.
As Li continued, “Globally, the market is undergoing structural shifts, with US trade policies experiencing increased volatility. However, we are leveraging innovation and agile infrastructure to mitigate geopolitical challenges, enabling sustainable global growth through proactive production adjustments.”
NIU’s XQi3 electric dirt bike (street legal in Europe) is one of its most ambitious international projects yet
Electrek’s Take
If you’re a NIU fan like I am, this is great news that helps claw back some of the losses seen in the last couple of years. The entire micromobility sector has navigated choppy waters after the pandemic bubble burst, and NIU was certainly not immune to the drop in sales. But these numbers paint a promising return that industry analysts and scooter riders who depend on the company alike have been hoping for.
I visited NIU’s factory a few months ago and saw firsthand how much care and precision goes into building its millions of electric two-wheelers. That kind of in-depth look is rare in this industry, and it gave me keen insight into what separates NIU’s high-tech and high-design models from much of the industry.
Now it seems that sales are starting to catch back up to where such innovative pieces of tech deserve to be. Here’s to hoping for another good quarter to follow.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
On today’s sunny side up episode of Quick Charge, we take a look at the latest from the world of solar power, and discuss Congressional Republicans’ plans to limit your energy independence by eliminating a critical tax credit for homeowners nearly ten years early. (!)
We’ve also got a quick review of a massive solar farm powering 200,000 homes in Indiana and the biggest solar project East of the Mississippi – both part of a record 98% of all new power generation and grid capacity introduced in 2025 coming from wind and solar. Those are jobs, those are lower utility rates, those are energy independence … so why are Congressional Republicans working to make that more expensive?
Source Links
If you want to read that EnergySage report on the state of the home solar industry, including news about battery energy storage system and V2H/V2G prices and financing trends, you can check it out for yourself, below, then let us know what you think in the comments.
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
Got news? Let us know! Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.