Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer of Coinbase Global Inc., speaks during the Messari Mainnet summit in New York, on Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Now that the SEC has approved the creation of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, Coinbase’s position in the crypto market is poised to take a dramatic turn.
In the weeks ahead, Coinbase will help shepherd some of the biggest names in asset management, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree, into the digital asset ecosystem as their custodial partner of choice. That means Coinbase will be central to the storage and safekeeping of the assets for those firms.
While custody revenue presents a big growth opportunity for Coinbase in the near term, some industry analysts are concerned that the company’s core transaction business is at risk due to the myriad ways investors will be able to access bitcoin. Instead of having to go to an asset exchange such as Kraken, Binance, or Coinbase, they’ll be able to invest in the digital currency through the same mechanism they already use to buy stock and bond ETFs.
In a report Dec. 4, analysts at Bernstein predicted that in less than five years, 10% of the global supply of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, or roughly $300 billion, will be managed by ETFs. The firm called it the “largest pipe ever built between traditional financial markets and crypto financial markets.”
In 2023, Coinbase’s stock was one of the top performers in the tech industry, soaring almost 400%. Much of that rally was tied to bitcoin, which increased 150%. But part of the outperformance relative to bitcoin was due to the excitement that new ETFs would drive more interest in crypto and be a boon for Coinbase.
“ETFs should expand the pie and bring new people and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” Coinbase Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi said on the company’s most recent earnings call in November. “They should add credibility to the market, and we should see increased liquidity and market stability as we’ve seen with other asset classes such as gold.”
From June 15, the day that BlackRock — with its $9 trillion in assets under management — filed for a so-called spot bitcoin ETF and named Coinbase its crypto custodian, shares in the exchange rose from around $54 to over $170 by the end of the year.
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a November report that Coinbase would be a key beneficiary of the coming ETF boom, given the immediate upside of custody fees from asset managers.
“We estimate Bitcoin custody and surveillance revenue will more than offset decline in Bitcoin trading volume as assets migrate to ETFs,” the analysts said.
Some of the momentum on Wall Street has faded to start 2024, with the stock down 14% since the calendar turned. According to Mizuho analysts, there could be more pain to come.
“With the hype around Bitcoin ETFs likely to reach a climax in the coming weeks, COIN bulls could experience a rough awakening when they realize how minimal the revenue impact is,” Mizuho wrote in a note Thursday.
Mizuho’s analysts have the equivalent of a sell rating on the stock and were bearish throughout last year’s rally, finishing 2023 with a $54 price target, by far the lowest among analysts tracked by FactSet.
The battle for market share
Almost half of Coinbase’s revenue comes from the fees it charges on transactions, meaning the company needs people to keep using the exchange to buy and trade bitcoin and other digital currencies.
In the third quarter in 2023, total transaction revenue accounted for 46% of net revenue. However, Coinbase has been diversifying into new businesses. In 2022, transactions made up closer to 75% of revenue.
More than one-quarter of Coinbase’s revenue in the third quarter came from interest income on the exchange’s stablecoin reserves, including Circle’s U.S. dollar-pegged USDC coin. Stablecoin revenue more than doubled from a year earlier primarily due to rising interest rates.
“A few years ago, our business at Coinbase was 95% trading fees, and we made a big effort around the time it went public to start diversifying our revenue,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a recent interview. “What’s great is that now we have multiple sources of revenue — some of them in a high interest rate environment go up, some of them in a low interest rate environment go up.”
Still, transaction fees remain a key income driver for the exchange. And unlike trading platform Robinhood, which enables investments in a wide array of asset types, Coinbase doesn’t allow for trading of ETFs.
“Spot bitcoin ETFs appear poised to take volume away from crypto exchanges,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar.
JPMorgan anticipates that new account growth will slow as “novice crypto investors get their initial exposure and possibly final exposure through ETFs rather than Coinbase,” adding that many of these neophyte traders will never go beyond bitcoin, “thus never needing the services of a Coinbase.”
Mizuho sees the income from custody fees as fairly modest given how far investors have pushed up the stock. The firm predicts ETF approval may add just $25 million to $30 million in annual custody fees, with another $200 million to $210 million of new revenue “if incremental Bitcoin inflows generate additional spot trading opportunities.”
With a collective gain of up to $240 million in additional annual revenue, “this represents just mid-to-high single-digit percentage upside vs. current 2024 consensus,” the Mizuho analysts wrote. They said they “do not believe the nearly 400% increase in the stock in anticipation of ETF approval justifies our reasonable estimate for the ETFs’ actual contribution to revenue.”
A Coinbase spokesperson told CNBC in an emailed statement that, in addition to custody fees, the company will make money by providing services such as agency trading, matching and settlement, and financing to ETF issuers.
“The platform believes that spot ETFs will be a positive catalyst for the entire crypto space, adding credibility, increasing liquidity, and bringing new participants and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” the spokesperson said, reiterating prior comments from Coinbase executives.
Competition could also create pricing pressure.
ARK, Invesco, Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie are all offering deals that involve fee-free trading for a certain period of time. Others are opting for discounted fees.
Coinbase’s transaction fee varies, with a max of 0.6% on transactions up to $10,000 in value. In the company’s most recent quarterly earnings call, Choi said that Coinbase doesn’t plan to reduce transaction fees to make them more competitive with other platforms where ETFs are being traded at significantly lower prices.
The transaction charges on Coinbase also vary between its Pro platform and the retail app, where fees are higher. For retail transactions up to $1,000, the fee ranges from 1.5% to 3%.
However, JPMorgan analysts said greater efficiency and transparency in equity markets, paired with lower costs to execute, could drive more cryptocurrency trading to ETFs over time, which could ultimately “pressure Coinbase to lower commissions and to narrow trading spreads, reversing the multi-quarter increase we’ve witnessed in Coinbase’s retail revenue capture.”
Still, Coinbase has its believers among crypto enthusiasts, such as Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures.
“They are essential infrastructure in terms of custody, trading, and surveillance for the majority of the ETF proposals,” Carter said. “Even though it might affect their fees at the margin I think they are still winners here.”
Hyundai flew us out to Savannah, Georgia, a few weeks ago to get our first impressions of the much-anticipated Ioniq 9 three-row SUV. The vehicle uses the same E-GMP platform as the Kia EV9 and some smaller HMG EVs but the real question is: how is the Ioniq 9 different? Let’s take a look…
Size matters
This is a big EV with spacious three rows that seat six or seven adults comfortably. As far as I am concerned,the Ioniq 9 is Hyundai’s flagship vehicle.
The drive was similar to the Kia EV9, which is obviously a good thing. The big vehicle has solid electric acceleration, and Hyundai has done great work with the suspension to make this heavy car feel light on its toes. But Hyundai has made efforts to make the drive even smoother and quieter. The foam-filled tires, soft suspension, acoustic glass, and active noise cancellation all make the ride feel like floating rather than driving.
Front-row seats are not only spacious but also offer ample comfort and legroom. Also, there’s plenty of legroom in the second row (42.8 inches) and spacious third row (32.0 inches). Did I mention this is a big vehicle?
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What stands out to me on the interior is the flat floor enabled by the E-GMP battery and remarkably long wheelbase (3,130mm / 123.2 inches). It doesn’t feel like an SUV inside, it feels like a big minivan (oxymoron noted). While many folks are embarrassed to be seen in a minivan, nothing beats the configuration internally for trips and driving more than 4 people around – so the comparison is fully complimentary.
Hyundai obviously kitted us out with their top-end interiors, and they definitely felt sporty and luxurious.
Frunk
The Frunk o the Ioniq 9 isn’t anything to write home about and one of the few downsides to this vehicle. Hyundai of course says that their customers don’t want it, just like the bigger Frunk-maker’s say that their customers love it. For better or worse, it is a great place to put some charging cables, a tire inflator kit or some valuables but don’t expect it to be used frequently like a Tesla/Rivian or F-150/Silverado Frunk for groceries and general purpose cargo.
I really love the look of the Ioniq 9, which the company says is shaped like a sailboat hull with its big taper at the back. That also gives the Ioniq an otherworldly low drag coefficient of 0.259. That, along with the big 110kWh battery and Hyundai’s always efficient EVs, gets this thing to 335 miles for the RWD version. The performance AWD variant only drops down to 311 miles, a hit worth taking.
That range and the spacious interior mean that this is a great road trip EV. AWD versions can even tow up to 5000lbs. HMG’s software adjusts range predictions based on towing. Aerodynamics and efficiency of the trailer will all determine how much range is sacrificed but with over 300 miles to start with, odds are it will get you where you are towing.
NACS charging
The Ioniq 9 is one of the first non-Tesla EVs to come standard with a NACS charger, meaning it can natively charge at most Tesla Superchargers. Hyundai also includes an adapter so it can charge at CCS Combo stations and use a J-1772 Level1/2 charger.
Exterior
I am torn on the exterior look of the Ioniq 9. I love the shape, which Hyundai says is reminiscent of the aerodynamic hull of a sailing ship. I love the pixel lights that have become iconic in Hyundai’s EV lineup. Even the overall silhouette, something that Hyundai calls “Aerosthetic”—a harmonious blend of aerodynamics and aesthetics— is pretty incredible.
But I don’t love some of the design ornaments–like the cutout pieces over the front and back wheels. While I realize that seems like a nit-pick, I can’t unsee it. It is more subdued in the darker colors, however.
Pricing: starts at $58,955 for the RWD S trim and goes up to $76,490 for the Performance Calligraphy Design AWD trim. Eligible for $7500 Federal tax credit and various state/local and utility discounts.
Electrek’s take
I really love this take on the 3rd row electric SUV. Would I take the Ioniq 9 off-road like a Rivian? No. Does it accelerate like a Telsa Model X? No.
However, it does everything most third-row SUV owners expect, and it does it quietly and effortlessly. For those looking for a luxurious 3-row electric SUV with an interior that rivals the comfort of a minivan, you have to put the Hyundai Ioniq 9 at the top of your list.
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That larger Honda electric SUV may be a pipe dream after all. Honda follows Ford, Toyota, and other automakers in adjusting major EV plans in the US.
Honda scraps plans for a larger electric SUV
Although Honda’s first electric SUV, the Prologue, was one of the top-selling EVs in the US last year, the Japanese automaker is preparing for a slowdown.
Thanks to the Trump Administration’s recently passed “Big, Beautiful Bill,” which kills off the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September, Honda expects lower demand for EVs.
According to a new Nikkei report, Honda is now scrapping plans for its larger electric SUV in the US, its largest market. Instead, the company will focus on hybrid vehicles, similar to recent moves from Ford, Toyota, and others.
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Honda’s larger electric SUV was due to be released around 2027, about the same time as Ford and Toyota’s three-row EV SUVs. The upcoming Honda 0 Series electric SUV and sedan are still set to arrive starting next year.
Honda announced earlier this year that it is reducing its planned EV investments by $21 billion through 2030, as it expects lower demand. Like Ford and Toyota, Honda will focus on hybrids in the meantime.
Honda 0 SUV (Source: Honda)
In a separate report on June 20, Nikkei claimed that Honda and Nissan were considering a new US partnership just months after their global tie-up fell through.
Electrek’s Take
Honda is one of the few Japanese automakers to gain some momentum in the US EV market, but scrapping plans for the bigger model could put it behind rivals like Hyundai and Kia.
Through the first half of the year, Honda has sold over 16,300 Prologues in the US. In comparison, Toyota sold just over 9,200 bZ4X models.
Even Acura’s EV is seeing significantly more demand than expected. Acura sold 10,355 ZDX models in the first half of 2025, outpacing the Cadillac Lyriq, which is based on the same platform. Earlier this year, Mike Langel, vice president of national sales for Acura, told Automotive News that the company expected to sell around 1,000 ZDX models a month this year.
Honda, like most of the auto industry, is bracing for a shakeup as the Trump Administration rolls back EV incentives, putting the US on track to lag even further behind leaders like China.
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Paris’ bike-share system, Vélib has long been considered one of the shining success stories of urban micromobility. With a massive fleet of over 20,000 pedal and electric-assist bicycles around Paris, the service has helped millions of residents and tourists get around the City of Light without needing a car or scooter. But lately, a growing problem is threatening to knock the wheels off this urban mobility marvel: theft and joyriding.
According to city officials and the service operator, more than 600 Vélib bikes are now going missing every single week. That’s over 30 bikes a day simply vanishing from the system – some stolen outright, others taken on “joy rides” and never returned.
“At the moment we’re missing 3,000 bikes,” explained Sylvain Raifaud, head of the Agemob company that currently operates the Velib system. That’s nearly 15% of over 20,000 Vélib bikes across Paris.
The sticky-fingered culprits aren’t necessarily professional thieves or organized crime rings. Instead, they’re often regular users who treat the shared bikes like disposable toys.
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The city estimates that many people have figured out how to pry the bikes out of the system’s parking docks, unlocking one for a casual cruise and then ditching it somewhere far from a docking station.
Once pried free, the bikes are technically usable for the next 24 hours until their automatic locking feature kicks in. At that point, the bikes are often simply abandoned. Some end up in alleyways. Others get tossed in rivers. A few just disappear completely.
And since the bikes are intended to be parked at their many docking stations around the city, they don’t have GPS chips, further complicating recovery of “liberated” bikes.
The issue started small but has grown into more than an inconvenience – it’s beginning to undermine the entire purpose of the service. With bikes going missing at such a high rate, many Vélib docking stations are left empty, especially during rush hours.
Riders looking for a quick commute or a convenient hop across town are increasingly finding themselves without available bikes, or having to walk long distances to find a functioning one.
That kind of unreliability chips away at user confidence and threatens to drive potential riders back into cars, cabs, or other less sustainable forms of transport at a time when Paris has already made great strides to dramatically reduce car usage in the city.
The losses are financially painful, too. Replacing stolen or vandalized bikes isn’t cheap, and the resources spent on tracking down missing equipment or reinforcing anti-theft measures are stretching thin. Vélib has faced theft and vandalism issues before, especially during its early years, but this latest surge has officials sounding the alarm with renewed urgency.
Officials acknowledge that there’s no easy fix. Paris, like many cities with bike-share systems, walks a fine line between accessibility and accountability. Part of what makes Vélib so successful is its ease of use and widespread availability. But those same features make it vulnerable to misuse – especially when enforcement is limited and the consequences for abuse are minimal.
The timing of the problem is especially unfortunate. In recent years, Paris has seen impressive results in reducing car traffic, expanding bike lanes, and promoting cycling as a key part of its sustainable transport strategy. Vélib is a cornerstone of that plan. But if the system becomes too unreliable, it risks losing the very people it was designed to serve.
Meanwhile, as Parisians increasingly find themselves staring at empty docks, the challenge for the city and Vélib will be to restore confidence in the system without making it harder to use. That means striking the right balance between freedom and responsibility, between open access and protection against abuse.
In a city where cycling is supposed to be the future of mobility, losing thousands of bikes to joyriders and sticky fingers isn’t just frustrating; it’s unsustainable.
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