Coinbase threatened by bitcoin ETFs after almost 400% surge in stock last year
Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer of Coinbase Global Inc., speaks during the Messari Mainnet summit in New York, on Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Now that the SEC has approved the creation of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, Coinbase’s position in the crypto market is poised to take a dramatic turn.
In the weeks ahead, Coinbase will help shepherd some of the biggest names in asset management, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree, into the digital asset ecosystem as their custodial partner of choice. That means Coinbase will be central to the storage and safekeeping of the assets for those firms.
While custody revenue presents a big growth opportunity for Coinbase in the near term, some industry analysts are concerned that the company’s core transaction business is at risk due to the myriad ways investors will be able to access bitcoin. Instead of having to go to an asset exchange such as Kraken, Binance, or Coinbase, they’ll be able to invest in the digital currency through the same mechanism they already use to buy stock and bond ETFs.
In a report Dec. 4, analysts at Bernstein predicted that in less than five years, 10% of the global supply of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, or roughly $300 billion, will be managed by ETFs. The firm called it the “largest pipe ever built between traditional financial markets and crypto financial markets.”
In 2023, Coinbase’s stock was one of the top performers in the tech industry, soaring almost 400%. Much of that rally was tied to bitcoin, which increased 150%. But part of the outperformance relative to bitcoin was due to the excitement that new ETFs would drive more interest in crypto and be a boon for Coinbase.
“ETFs should expand the pie and bring new people and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” Coinbase Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi said on the company’s most recent earnings call in November. “They should add credibility to the market, and we should see increased liquidity and market stability as we’ve seen with other asset classes such as gold.”
From June 15, the day that BlackRock — with its $9 trillion in assets under management — filed for a so-called spot bitcoin ETF and named Coinbase its crypto custodian, shares in the exchange rose from around $54 to over $170 by the end of the year.
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a November report that Coinbase would be a key beneficiary of the coming ETF boom, given the immediate upside of custody fees from asset managers.
“We estimate Bitcoin custody and surveillance revenue will more than offset decline in Bitcoin trading volume as assets migrate to ETFs,” the analysts said.
Some of the momentum on Wall Street has faded to start 2024, with the stock down 14% since the calendar turned. According to Mizuho analysts, there could be more pain to come.
“With the hype around Bitcoin ETFs likely to reach a climax in the coming weeks, COIN bulls could experience a rough awakening when they realize how minimal the revenue impact is,” Mizuho wrote in a note Thursday.
Mizuho’s analysts have the equivalent of a sell rating on the stock and were bearish throughout last year’s rally, finishing 2023 with a $54 price target, by far the lowest among analysts tracked by FactSet.
The battle for market share
Almost half of Coinbase’s revenue comes from the fees it charges on transactions, meaning the company needs people to keep using the exchange to buy and trade bitcoin and other digital currencies.
In the third quarter in 2023, total transaction revenue accounted for 46% of net revenue. However, Coinbase has been diversifying into new businesses. In 2022, transactions made up closer to 75% of revenue.
More than one-quarter of Coinbase’s revenue in the third quarter came from interest income on the exchange’s stablecoin reserves, including Circle’s U.S. dollar-pegged USDC coin. Stablecoin revenue more than doubled from a year earlier primarily due to rising interest rates.
“A few years ago, our business at Coinbase was 95% trading fees, and we made a big effort around the time it went public to start diversifying our revenue,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a recent interview. “What’s great is that now we have multiple sources of revenue — some of them in a high interest rate environment go up, some of them in a low interest rate environment go up.”
Still, transaction fees remain a key income driver for the exchange. And unlike trading platform Robinhood, which enables investments in a wide array of asset types, Coinbase doesn’t allow for trading of ETFs.
“Spot bitcoin ETFs appear poised to take volume away from crypto exchanges,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar.
JPMorgan anticipates that new account growth will slow as “novice crypto investors get their initial exposure and possibly final exposure through ETFs rather than Coinbase,” adding that many of these neophyte traders will never go beyond bitcoin, “thus never needing the services of a Coinbase.”
Mizuho sees the income from custody fees as fairly modest given how far investors have pushed up the stock. The firm predicts ETF approval may add just $25 million to $30 million in annual custody fees, with another $200 million to $210 million of new revenue “if incremental Bitcoin inflows generate additional spot trading opportunities.”
With a collective gain of up to $240 million in additional annual revenue, “this represents just mid-to-high single-digit percentage upside vs. current 2024 consensus,” the Mizuho analysts wrote. They said they “do not believe the nearly 400% increase in the stock in anticipation of ETF approval justifies our reasonable estimate for the ETFs’ actual contribution to revenue.”
A Coinbase spokesperson told CNBC in an emailed statement that, in addition to custody fees, the company will make money by providing services such as agency trading, matching and settlement, and financing to ETF issuers.
“The platform believes that spot ETFs will be a positive catalyst for the entire crypto space, adding credibility, increasing liquidity, and bringing new participants and institutions into the cryptoeconomy,” the spokesperson said, reiterating prior comments from Coinbase executives.
Competition could also create pricing pressure.
ARK, Invesco, Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie are all offering deals that involve fee-free trading for a certain period of time. Others are opting for discounted fees.
Coinbase’s transaction fee varies, with a max of 0.6% on transactions up to $10,000 in value. In the company’s most recent quarterly earnings call, Choi said that Coinbase doesn’t plan to reduce transaction fees to make them more competitive with other platforms where ETFs are being traded at significantly lower prices.
The transaction charges on Coinbase also vary between its Pro platform and the retail app, where fees are higher. For retail transactions up to $1,000, the fee ranges from 1.5% to 3%.
However, JPMorgan analysts said greater efficiency and transparency in equity markets, paired with lower costs to execute, could drive more cryptocurrency trading to ETFs over time, which could ultimately “pressure Coinbase to lower commissions and to narrow trading spreads, reversing the multi-quarter increase we’ve witnessed in Coinbase’s retail revenue capture.”
Still, Coinbase has its believers among crypto enthusiasts, such as Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures.
“They are essential infrastructure in terms of custody, trading, and surveillance for the majority of the ETF proposals,” Carter said. “Even though it might affect their fees at the margin I think they are still winners here.”
WATCH: Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton on changes in bitcoin trading
The feces-filled freight train of dystopian horrors rolls on with the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the untimely demise of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. But if you’re ready to pull the trigger on a new EV this month, you’re in luck! There are plenty of great options with zero interest financing to choose from … and one with zero interest in general.
You know how we usually do these lists – some pictures, a few punchy paragraphs, and an invitation to explore local deals.
We’re doing things a little differently this month. Instead of brief write-ups, we’re highlighting the most significant 0% deal of the month (yes, that is largely opinion-based – thanks for noticing), and an “honorable mention” that doesn’t quite fit the 0% EV deal template … but might still be worth checking out.
Enough talk! Here are the deals.
Most significant new 0% offer
Demand for Tesla Cybertrucks has been a long, long way from the “conservative” 250,000 per year projections Elon was making just a few years ago. Demand for the low-poly electric pickup is so dismal, in fact, that Tesla is offering 0% financing on a new Cybertruck for up to 60 months – if you’re willing to spring for the company’s Full Self Driving (Supervised) level 2 ADAS.
Not quite a 0% EV deal
Don’t act surprised – my Twitter handle is VolvoJo, after all, and I’m on my fifth consecutive long-roof Swede as I type this. As such, when trying out a new format for this monthly column it made perfect sense to check out the Ironmark’s offers … and I found a good one: a new, not perfect but getting there seven-passenger EX90 at 1.99% financing plus $1,000 in “Summer Safety Bonus Cash.”
Is zero interest financing good enough to overcome the fact that most people seem to have zero interest in buying a CT these days? Is the Volvo worth a look at 1.99% with an additional $1,000 cash back? Let us know your take in the comments – but before you do that, check out the full list of 0% interest EV deals for July 2025 and click the links for additional local deals.
July 0% interest EV deals
Disclaimer: the vehicle models and financing deals above were sourced from CarsDirect, CarEdge, and (where mentioned) the OEM websites – and were current as of 07JUL2025. These deals may not be available in every market, with every discount, or for every buyer (the standard “with approved credit” fine print should be considered implied).
Check with your local dealer(s) for more information.
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The new Lectric XP Trike2, just unveiled today, is the hands-down winner in the best-bang-for-your-buck category of electric trikes. And as perhaps the longest-running electric bike reviewer in the industry, I can say that with confidence. I’ve seen a lot of electric bikes in my time. I’ve spent a lot of butt-in-saddle hours on e-trikes. But I’ve never before seen a value like this roll by on three wheels.
As an able-bodied, mid-30s electric bike rider (and writer), I’ll be the first to say that electric trikes aren’t just for older folks. They’re fun e-bikes in their own right. But let’s face it – the vast majority of the market for electric three-wheelers are those who just aren’t as comfortable on two wheels due to age, accessibility, or other reasons. And so if you’re a senior or otherwise on the hunt for a fun and affordable electric trike, the Lectric XP Trike2 is probably the one you’re going to end up getting, and deservingly so!
If you don’t know Lectric eBikes, they’re the Phoenix-based e-bike company that took the US by storm in the early 2020s, quickly growing into the #1 best-selling e-bike company on the continent. They started with the ultra affordable, high-value XP line of e-bikes, and then took that same recipe to other types of e-bikes, from cargo bikes to off-roaders, and now to trikes.
The new XP Trike2 is the latest generation of their best-selling e-trike, and it’s absolutely better than ever.
First of all though, let’s look at what stayed the same. The ultra-affordable price of $1,499 remains untouched, keeping this not only one of the best e-trikes on the market, but also the most affordable. It also keeps the low step-over height for easy mounts and dismounts, the folding frame to help riders transport it more easily, and the powerful motor that makes it a great hill climber.
Other than those features, basically everything else has received an upgrade.
First of all, we now get included suspension with a 50mm suspension fork up front. The frame has been redesigned with a new hydroformed aluminum downtube and a more stable footprint. The stem angle has been modified to make it more comfortable and allow a more upright, relaxed riding posture. A more powerful and longer-range version of the Trike2 is also available, upgrading the motor with 50% more power for even better hill climbing, as well as including a torque sensor for more responsive pedaling and a longer-range battery.
The included TFT color screen is a major upgrade over the older model, and there are even six new colors to choose from, which is a major improvement over the original XP Trike’s color option list of… one.
Base model versus the long-range upgrade
Both the base model (Lectric XP Trike2 500) and the higher-spec option (XP Trike2 750) are compelling options, but they’ll likely serve different types of riders.
Even the base model comes with a reasonably large 13 Ah (624 Wh) battery, which is already going to give most riders at least 30 miles of range (or a claimed 50 miles if using low power pedal assist and riding slower). Plus, the 500W motor is actually much more powerful, likely peaking at closer to 1,000W of actual power. That’s the “oomph” that riders will feel when climbing hills. And for many folks, that’s plenty. Plus, the $1,499 price of the XP Trike2 500 is quite attractive.
But riders who want to upgrade to the XP Trike2 750, the higher price of $1,799 does come with some nice upgrades. First of all, the higher power 750W motor will be that much better at climbing hills, helping riders up steeper inclines, or just maintaining higher speeds up the same slopes. Next, the larger 17.5 Ah (840 Wh) battery is going to give more range, to the tune of nearly 50 miles with mixed riding (or the claimed 70 miles if using lower power pedal assist and staying off the throttle). The other benefit of a bigger battery is that it simply doesn’t need to be charged as often. Even if you’re riding around at 10 mph for an hour each day, that’s a week of riding before you have to think about recharging the battery.
The last significant upgrade on the 750W model is a torque sensor, which is a more refined pedal assist sensor that results in a more natural feeling ride when pedaling. For riders who only use the throttle, there’s not much benefit to a torque sensor. But for anyone who actually wants to pedal along and get a bit of fitness in, the torque sensor means the acceleration and the riding just better mimic the natural feel of bicycle pedaling, making it more like real pedaling – albeit if you had the legs and muscle definition of a professional cyclist.
All of this is to say: The base model with 500W of power is likely sufficient for most riders, but that extra $300 does offer better hill climbing, more power, longer range, and a nicer pedaling experience – which may be important for some riders.
Lectric may have announced the XP Trike2 today, but they aren’t quite ready to ship. In something of a throwback to Lectric’s early days, the bikes are available on pre-order. Orders placed now get priority, with the 500W model shipping later this month (July 2025). The 750W models will take a bit longer, with current orders expected to ship by September.
It’s a bit of a delayed gratification situation, but if the XP Trike2 is anything like the original (and it looks to be even better), then these bikes are absolutely going to be worth the wait!
Electrek’s Take
Once again, Lectric has left all the other e-bike makers fighting over second place. My hat is off to the company – time and again they have surprised us with increasingly better e-bike generations at increasingly the same price. Each time they roll out a bike, they give us more and more, all without touching the price tag.
The XP Trike2 follows that strategy perfectly, though it definitely looks like they’re hoping the XP Trike2 750 will bring slightly fatter margins – perhaps making up for just how ridiculously affordable the XP Trike2 500 is. And while I think the lower power model will be sufficient for most people, that bigger battery, beefier motor, and nicer torque sensor do sound like a tempting upgrade.
I haven’t ridden the XP Trike2 yet, but I will be on it soon and I can’t wait to share the experience with you guys. In the meantime, let’s hear what you think about the new e-trike in the comment section below!
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Japanese equipment giant Kubota brought 22 new or updated machines to the 2025 bauma expo earlier this year, but tucked away in the corners was a new retrofit kit that can help existing customers decarbonize more quickly, and more affordably.
No matter how badly a fleet may want to electrify, harsh economic realities and the greater up-front costs typically associated with battery electric remain high hurdles to overcome, but new retrofit options from major manufacturers are popping up to help lower those obstacles.
The latest equipment maker to put its name on the retrofit list is Kubota, who says its kit can be installed by a trained dealer in a single day.
That’s right! By this time tomorrow, your diesel-powered Kubota KX019 or U27-4 excavator (shown) could be fitted with an 18 or 20 kWh li-ion battery pack and electric drive motors and ready to get to work in a low-noise or low-vibration work environment where emissions are a strict no-no. Think indoor precision demolition or historic archeological excavation.
Then, if necessary, it can go right back to diesel power.
From diesel to electric and back again
If that sounds familiar, that’s because we’ve talked about a similarly flexible power solution from ZQUIP. The battery packs and diesel engines are much larger in that application, but the basic sales pitch remains the same: electric when it benefits your operation, diesel it doesn’t.
Kubota says its modular retrofit kits is a response to the increasing global demand for sustainable alternatives by focusing on making machinery that’s flexible and repairable enough to be “reusable,” and offer construction fleet managers a longer operational lifespan, superior ROI (return on investment), and lower TCO (total cost of ownership) than the competition.
Kubota’s solution also notably reduces maintenance costs and operational overheads. With no engine and associated components, servicing time and expenses are considerably reduced, saving customers both time and money. Additionally, with electricity costing far less than fossil fuels, it offers a highly economical advantage.
International Rental News reports that other changes to the excavators include a more modern cab controls with a digital instrument cluster, a 60 mm wider undercarriage for more stability, and an independent travel circuit allows operators to use the boom, dipper, bucket, and auxiliary functions without an impact on tracking performance.
Kubota’s new kit, first shown at last year’s Hillhead exhibition in the UK, will officially be on sale this summer – any day now, in fact – though pricing has yet to be announced.
Electrek’s Take
If you’re wondering how it is that we’re still talking about bauma 2025 a full quarter after the show wrapped up, then I haven’t done a good enough job of explaining how positively massive the show was. Check out this Quick Charge episode (above) then let us know what you think of Kubota’s modular power kits in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Kubota, via International Rental News.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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