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The cost of building HS2 between London and Birmingham could reach nearly £67bn – almost double an early projection for the entire project to the north.

HS2 Ltd executive chairman Sir Jon Thompson told MPs the estimated cost for phase one stood between £49bn and £56.6bn based on 2019 prices – but that adjusting the range for current prices would mean “adding somewhere between eight and 10 billion pounds”.

The new estimate is nearly double what the high-speed network was expected to cost in 2013, when it had a price tag of £37.5bn.

That figure was based on 2009 prices for the entire planned network, including the routes to Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds which have now been scrapped.

Giving evidence to parliament’s Transport Select Committee, Sir Jon said the costs for phase one had jumped due to original budgets being too low, poor delivery and inflation.

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He said there was a “systemic problem” where budgets are set out early “based on very, very immature data”.

“You don’t have a design, you haven’t procured anything, there is no detail on which you can cost anything,” he explained.

“If you say to a builder, can you give me a quote for an extension, they walk around and say ‘it’s £50,000-something’.

“But then you get into the detailed design, you know exactly how big it is, what surfaces you want, how much concrete needs to be poured. Unsurprisingly you get a better number.

“That’s the situation here. The situation with HS2 in my opinion is the estimate was poor, the budget was set too early, and then when you get further into it, you get much better information.

“Then on that basis, you can cost it out with more accuracy and then you discover it’s higher.”

Rishi Sunak took the controversial decision to scrap the northern leg of HS2 to Manchester at the Conservative Party conference in October – a move that attracted criticism from regional leaders who branded it a “betrayal” of northern voters.

The prime minister promised to spend the billions of cash savings on hundreds of other transport schemes across the country instead, including a new “Network North” project to join up northern cities by rail.

Read more:
Cheshire East Council issues bankruptcy threat warning after decision to scrap HS2
Private sector investment needed for HS2 to reach Euston station

However, the government was recently mocked after it emerged roads in London will be revamped as part of the Network North project.

A recent document published by the Department for Transport (DfT) which outlined plans for Network North stated the government believed phase one of HS2 should cost between £45bn and £54bn and that HS2 Ltd “should deliver at the lower end of this range”.

But Sir Jon told the committee: “It’s for the department and the government to decide what it wants to use that data for, but I do not believe that phase one could be delivered for £45bn.”

He also told the committee the decision to scrap HS2 north of Birmingham could lead to a reduction in seat capacity for train services between London and Manchester compared with today.

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UK central bank still ‘disproportionately cautious’ about stablecoins

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UK central bank still ‘disproportionately cautious’ about stablecoins

The UK’s central bank, the Bank of England (BOE), has released a proposed regulatory regime for stablecoins. The consultation paper took into account the perspectives of the crypto industry, but some observers say it remains restrictive.

BOE released the document on Nov. 10 — some two years after it announced the initial discussion paper. The original offered a vision for crypto that many in the industry claimed would doom the UK’s digital asset space.

The BOE said that it received comments and feedback from a broad range of 46 different stakeholders, including “banks, non-bank payment service providers, payment system operators, trade associations, academia, and individuals.”

The UK’s central bank may have scrapped some more hardline requirements, but some in the industry believe that it isn’t enough. Tom Rhodes, chief legal officer at UK-based stablecoin issuer Agant, said the bank remains “disproportionately cautious and restrictive.”

The bank also released a roadmap for further rulemaking. Source: Bank of England

Bank of England still cautious on stablecoins

The new iteration presents a number of improvements on the 2023 version, Rhodes told Cointelegraph.

“The latest proposals do include some innovative features, such as direct BOE liquidity lines and the ability to repo reserves for liquidity purposes.”

He said that, as it concerns the UK market, “these proposals can be further explored and potentially expanded to create a more competitive backing asset regime, without compromising on stability.”

But despite the “welcome progress in the BOE’s sentiment towards stablecoins,” it has been “unusually vocal about the perceived risks of stablecoins,” said Rhodes.

One of the more controversial restrictions in the paper was limits on what the BOE called a “systemic retail stablecoin.” In the paper, this is defined as a stablecoin that is “widely used by individuals to make everyday payments such as for shopping and receiving salaries.”

The central bank wants to see limits of 20,000 pounds for individuals and 10 million pounds for businesses that accept it as a form of payment. This is an increase from the initial proposal, but the idea of limits on how much crypto you can hold didn’t sit well with some. 

Crypto influencer Aleksandra Huk wrote, “Bank of England wants to cap stablecoin holdings at £20,000. Who gave them the right to tell us what to buy, where to store our money and how much we can have? […] Honestly, this is the best advert ever for privacy coins and for leaving the UK.”

Related: UK crypto hopes stall, but ‘encouraging signs’ are there

There are a few caveats to the suggested rule. Geoff Richards, head of community at the Ontology Network, noted, “The proposal applies only to sterling-denominated stablecoins used in UK payment systems that could become ‘systemic.’ Not USDT, not USDC, not random DeFi tokens.”

Ian Taylor, board member of crypto industry advocacy group CryptoUK, told Cointelegraph that he understands the central bank’s more cautious approach, at least as it applies to the stablecoin limits:

“The Bank of England has a mandate to protect against financial stability. And that financial stability is connected to the banking system. So insofar as banks take deposits and they issue loans against those deposits […] creates credit, this is an economic benefit to any economy that we have.”

The BOE is rightfully worried that taking deposits out of banks would reduce their ability to lend, affecting financial stability. “So, that’s why they want to baby-step this.”

Rhodes said that the “vast majority” of UK stablecoins will not fall under the regime anyway, at least not as stated in the paper. He noted that Mastercard was only recognized as a systemically important payment system in 2021 and that non-systemic stablecoins will be regulated under the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) ruleset, “which is less restrictive.”

Still work to be done as UK opens up to crypto

Access to central bank liquidity and deposit accounts at the BOE was a welcome update for stablecoin issuers. But crypto industry representatives believe that there is still room for improvement in the central bank’s plan.

Regarding the stablecoin caps, “The systemic thresholds remain uncertain,” said Rhodes. He said it would be helpful to have clarification from His Majesty’s Treasury when an issuer has reached sufficient scale to “pose a risk to the UK economy as a whole, before they will recognize the issuer as systemic.”

Taylor also noted the difficulty of enforcing these stablecoin caps. If the government is licensing an issuer, then they’re the ones “responsible for monitoring each individual client or customer, whether wholesale, corporate or retail, as to how many stablecoins they’ve given them.”

The problem is that many people get their stablecoins on secondary markets or a “host of different sources.” People can receive stablecoins as compensation at work or on an exchange or peer-to-peer transaction. “So, the actual operational enforcement of that I question, and we’ve seen no detail in regards to that.”

Overall, “clarity and speed” will make the UK stablecoin ecosystem more competitive, said Arvin Abraham, partner at Goodwin Procter. He told Cointelegraph that regulators need to give issuers “a clean runway and predictable timelines” to navigate the approvals process.

Speed isn’t the government’s strong suit, however.

The British government has been working on crypto regulations since 2017, when it first adopted Anti-Money Laundering and Know Your Customer requirements for crypto-related businesses like exchanges. Now, eight years later, the central bank is still developing its policies based on industry feedback.

The slow pace of progress presents a problem. According to Taylor, “We’ve been consulting on a wider framework to regulate stablecoins for almost five years, and we still haven’t gotten any actual license framework in place, which is problematic for a number of reasons,” he said.

“It doesn’t help businesses that want to launch stablecoins in the UK. They don’t have a clear roadmap of how to do that,” he said, “which in turn forces them to move offshore to jurisdictions where there are other regulatory frameworks already live.”

This is for a number of reasons, Taylor explained, including consecutive changes in government, as well as a lack of “real champions in any of our key stakeholders, be that the current government, be that Treasury, be that the FCA.”

Progress on crypto regulations may be slow in the UK — slower than many in the industry would like — but for Abraham, “The Bank is being pragmatic and fair. The overriding message is that innovation is welcome, but if you want your token to function like money, you need money-grade controls.”

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