On Taiwan’s islands close to China’s mainland, threats are in sharp focus ahead of election
There is a long queue of people waiting to board the ferry from the coastal city of Xiamen in southeast China.
There are families with children, a number of older people and many others lugging huge suitcases laden with cheap goods.
They board quickly and take seats inside the small boat, there’s a sense many of them take this trip regularly.
Their journey is a short one, fewer than 10 miles lasting only about half an hour, but they are passing between two places with an increasingly tense and fractious relationship: China and Taiwan.
Indeed, this ferry links Chinese Xiamen with the Kinmen Islands, an outlying territory of Taiwan situated over 100 miles from the Taiwanese mainland, but just a few miles from China’s coast.
They are so close that even on a misty day you can see one from the other, at low tide the very closest points are a mere two kilometres apart and there is a history of defectors successfully swimming between them.
But these islands and the short journey between them offer a vantage point of sorts, a perspective on the complex, intertwined relationship between China and Taiwan, the struggle over what their future should be and, crucially, the threat that one poses to the other.
Those issues are coming into sharp focus this week as Taiwan heads to the polls to pick a new president.
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The contest China calls a choice between war and peace
Xiamen is seen from the Kinmen Islands
‘A choice between war and peace’
As a self-governing island that China views as a breakaway province, elections are always contentious, and this time promises to be no exception.
The current ruling party’s candidate, Lai Ching-te, is most likely to win, his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) takes the hardest line against China, and with a history of making pro-independence statements, his election will be highly provoking to Beijing.
In the run-up China has maintained military pressure on Taiwan such as flying warplanes towards the island, while one official framed the vote as a choice between “war and peace”.
On Kinmen itself an awareness of its vulnerability is everywhere.
The beaches are lined with historic defensive spikes and bunkers, there are multiple imposing army bases and military trucks are a regular sight on the roads.
Experts say that while Kinmen would not be a key focus of any Chinese invasion, it would likely be a first port of call.
Historic defences on a beach on Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands, just across the water from China
An historic bunker on a beach on the Kinmen Islands, which could be re-used if China invaded
‘People are unhappy and angry’
This is what 36-year-old Wenchi Lan believes. He previously served in the army and is now a keen follower of military issues and an expert on Kinmen’s historic military sites.
He thinks that while war isn’t imminent, it is possible and shows us a bag he has prepared for that eventuality, including torches, medicine and a wallet stuffed with Chinese currency to “pay-off the invading troops”, he says.
As a young voter his support lies with Lai Ching-te, the DPP, he believes, is the party most likely stand up to the Chinese threat.
“Emotionally due to the constant state of intimidation, people are definitely unhappy and angry,” he says, “China’s continuous showing of military threat is counter-productive.
“The threat from China directly influences my families’ assessment of the candidates and their attitudes towards cross-strait relations.
“Older people tend to believe that the country should prioritise peace over the nation, consider peace first and then the nation second.”
He continues: “However my family and I believe the order should be reversed, we think the nation should come first and then we can discuss how to engage in equal exchanges.”
Watch: Moment Chinese warship nearly hits US destroyer in Taiwan Strait
Wenchi Lan has prepared an emergency kit for him and his wife for if China invades
Taiwan’s current vice president and DPP candidate for president Lai Ching-te alongside his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim on a campaign poster
‘Both Taiwan and the mainland belong to Chinese culture’
But the views of many on Kinmen are a little more nuanced, heavily influenced by the deep historical as well as cultural and linguistic ties with the mainland.
In fact many here continue to see themselves as culturally Chinese, “I am a Fujian person”, one woman proudly tells us.
And that closeness means that many here vote for the opposition KMT party which advocates more dialogue and a closer relationship with Beijing.
This is also a place where Chinese efforts to win the hearts and minds of Taiwanese people have made significant inroads.
State supported cultural exchanges are just one tactic.
Shih Tsung Chen’s choir has taken part in such exchanges, journeying to the mainland to perform.
At the small church in Kinmen where they gather to practice a mixture of Taiwanese and Chinese cultural songs, he tells us that most people here want a relationship with China, but one based on peace.
“Politically, we belong to Taiwan, but in terms of culture, I feel that we are quite close to the mainland. This closeness may even surpass Taiwan itself,” he says.
Shih Tsung Chen is critical of the ruling DPP for ’emphasising Taiwan’s independence’
In fact when it comes to rising tensions with China, he blames the DPP.
“Taiwan’s main issue now is because the ruling party has been emphasising Taiwan’s independence,” he says.
“I think that the division between the two sides, Taiwan and the mainland, is not correct. Both Taiwan and the mainland belong to Chinese culture. So, fundamentally, trying to separate them is not right. From my perspective, Taiwan’s ruling party bears a larger responsibility.”
A KMT victory might reduce tensions across the strait for a time, but it almost certainly won’t resolve the underlying disagreement.
It is unclear at the moment how China will respond to the vote, but any escalation of tensions may well be felt first by the people of Kinmen.
South Korea’s constitutional court has confirmed the dismissal of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached in December after declaring martial law.
His decision to send troops onto the streets led to the country’s worst political crisis in decades.
The court ruled to uphold the impeachment saying the conservative leader “violated his duty as commander-in-chief by mobilising troops” when he declared martial law.
The president was also said to have taken actions “beyond the powers provided in the constitution”.
Demonstrators stayed overnight near the constitutional court. Pic: AP
Supporters and opponents of the president gathered in their thousands in central Seoul as they awaited the ruling.
The 64-year-old shocked MPs, the public and international allies in early December when he declared martial law, meaning all existing laws regarding civilians were suspended in place of military law.
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The court was under heavy police security guard ahead of the announcement. Pic: AP
After suddenly declaring martial law, Mr Yoon sent hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly.
He has argued that he sought to maintain order, but some senior military and police officers sent there have told hearings and investigators that Mr Yoon ordered them to drag out politicians to prevent an assembly vote on his decree.
His presidential powers were suspended when the opposition-dominated assembly voted to impeach him on 14 December, accusing him of rebellion.
The unanimous verdict to uphold parliament’s impeachment and remove Mr Yoon from office required the support of at least six of the court’s eight justices.
South Korea must hold a national election within two months to find a new leader.
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, is the early favourite to become the country’s next president, according to surveys.
Stock markets around the world fell on Thursday after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs – with some economists now fearing a recession.
The US president announced tariffs for almost every country – including 10% rates on imports from the UK – on Wednesday evening, sending financial markets reeling.
While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.
Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble
All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.
The S&P 500 is set for its worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. File pic: AP
By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.
Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.
Worst one-day losses since COVID
As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.
It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.
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The latest numbers on tariffs
‘Trust in President Trump’
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.
“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”
Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”
He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.
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How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?
Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’
The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.
He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.
Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.
He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”
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It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.
Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.
It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.
He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”
Donald Trump has announced a 10% trade tariff on all imports from the UK – as he unleashed sweeping tariffs across the globe.
Speaking at a White House event entitled “Make America Wealthy Again”, the president held up a chart detailing the worst offenders – which also showed the new tariffs the US would be imposing.
“This is Liberation Day,” he told a cheering audience of supporters, while hitting out at foreign “cheaters”.
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He claimed “trillions” of dollars from the “reciprocal” levies he was imposing on others’ trade barriers would provide relief for the US taxpayer and restore US jobs and factories.
Mr Trump said the US has been “looted, pillaged, raped, plundered” by other nations.
Pic: AP
His first tariff announcement was a 25% duty on all car imports from midnight – 5am on Thursday, UK time.
Mr Trump confirmed the European Union would face a 20% reciprocal tariff on all other imports. China’s rate was set at 34%.
The UK’s rate of 10% was perhaps a shot across the bows over the country’s 20% VAT rate, though the president’s board suggested a 10% tariff imbalance between the two nations.
It was also confirmed that further US tariffs were planned on some individual sectors including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical mineral imports.
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Trump’s tariffs explained
The ramping up of duties promises to be painful for the global economy. Tariffs on steel and aluminium are already in effect.
The UK government signalled there would be no immediate retaliation.
Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: “We will always act in the best interests of UK businesses and consumers. That’s why, throughout the last few weeks, the government has been fully focused on negotiating an economic deal with the United States that strengthens our existing fair and balanced trading relationship.
“The US is our closest ally, so our approach is to remain calm and committed to doing this deal, which we hope will mitigate the impact of what has been announced today.
“We have a range of tools at our disposal and we will not hesitate to act. We will continue to engage with UK businesses including on their assessment of the impact of any further steps we take.
“Nobody wants a trade war and our intention remains to secure a deal. But nothing is off the table and the government will do everything necessary to defend the UK’s national interest.”
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Who showed up for Trump’s tariff address?
The EU has pledged to retaliate, which is a problem for Northern Ireland.
Should that scenario play out, the region faces the prospect of rising prices because all its imports are tied to EU rules under post-Brexit trading arrangements.
It means US goods shipped to Northern Ireland would be subject to the EU’s reprisals.
The impact of a trade war would be expected to be widely negative, with tit-for-tat tariffs risking job losses, a ramping up of prices and cooling of global trade.
Research for the Institute for Public Policy Research has suggested more than 25,000 direct jobs in the UK car manufacturing industry alone could be at risk from the tariffs on car exports to the US.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) had said the tariff costs could not be absorbed by manufacturers and may lead to a review of output.
The tariffs now on UK exports pose a big risk to growth and the so-called headroom Chancellor Rachel Reeves was forced to restore to the public finances at the spring statement, risking further spending cuts or tax rises ahead to meet her fiscal rules.
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A member of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), David Miles, told MPs on Tuesday that US tariffs at 20% or 25% maintained on the UK for five years would “knock out all the headroom the government currently has”.
But he added that a “very limited tariff war” that the UK stays out of could be “mildly positive”.
He said: “There’s a bit of trade that will get diverted to the UK, and some of the exports from China, for example, that would have gone to the US, they’ll be looking for a home for them in the rest of the world.
“And stuff would be available in the UK a bit cheaper than otherwise would have been. So there is one, not central scenario at all, which is very, very mildly potentially positive to the UK. All the other ones which involve the UK facing tariffs are negative, and they’re negative to very different extents.”
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