Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU

Published

1 year ago

January 11, 2024

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Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.

Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.

This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.

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The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.

The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.

Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.

But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.

This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.

They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.

Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.

The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.

The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.

Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”

Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.

The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.

Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.

“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”

With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.

Politics

US court pauses 18-state lawsuit against SEC after agency’s leadership change

Published

6 hours ago

April 17, 2025

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US court pauses 18-state lawsuit against SEC after agency’s leadership change

A US federal judge has agreed to pause a lawsuit filed by 18 state attorneys general and the crypto lobby group DeFi Education Fund against the Securities and Exchange Commission after all parties said new SEC leadership could make the action moot.

Kentucky District Court Judge Gregory Van Tatenhove ordered a 60-day stay on the case on April 16, noting a mid-March filing from the SEC that “this case could potentially be resolved” due to a leadership transition at the regulator.

He added that the parties must file a joint status report within 30 days.

Paul Atkins, a Wall Street adviser who has held board positions with crypto advocacy groups, was sworn in as the new SEC chair earlier this month, replacing acting chair Mark Uyeda and taking over from Gary Gensler.

The 18 attorneys general, all hailing from Republican states, filed the lawsuit with the DeFi Education Fund against the securities regulator in November, alleging that the SEC exceeded its authority when targeting crypto exchanges with lawsuits, accusing the regulator and then-chair Gensler of “gross government overreach.”

The plaintiffs included attorneys general from Nebraska, Tennessee, Wyoming, Kentucky, West Virginia, Iowa, Texas, Mississippi, Ohio, Montana, Indiana, Oklahoma and Florida, among others.

“Without Congressional authorization, the SEC has sought to unilaterally wrest regulatory authority away from the States through an ongoing series of enforcement actions,” the lawsuit stated.

DeFi groups drop case against IRS over killed broker rule

Meanwhile, the DeFi Education Fund, Blockchain Association, and Texas Blockchain Council dropped their lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service on April 16.

“The parties hereby stipulate to voluntary dismissal of this action without prejudice because the case has become moot,” stated the filing.

The lawsuit, filed in December, argued that the so-called IRS DeFi broker rule went beyond the agency’s authority and was unconstitutional.

On April 11, President Donald Trump signed a bill to revoke the rule that would have required DeFi protocols to report transactions to the IRS.

It comes as the SEC has paused or dropped several high-profile lawsuits against crypto companies this year under its new leadership.

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Panama’s capital to accept crypto for taxes, municipal fees

Published

13 hours ago

April 16, 2025

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<div>Panama's capital to accept crypto for taxes, municipal fees</div>

Panama’s capital city will accept cryptocurrency payments for taxes and municipal fees, including bus tickets and permits, Panama City mayor Mayer Mizrachi announced on April 15, joining a growing list of jurisdictions globally that have voted to accept such payments.

Panama City will begin accepting Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Circle’s USDC (USDC), and Tether’s USDt (USDT) stablecoin for payment once the crypto-to-fiat payment rails are established, Mizrachi posted on the X platform.

Mizrachi said previous administrations attempted to push through similar legislation but failed to overcome stipulations requiring the local government to accept funds denominated in US dollars.

In a translated statement, the Panama City mayor said that the local government partnered with a bank that will immediately convert any digital assets received into US dollars, allowing the municipality to accept crypto without introducing new legislation.

Panama City joins a growing list of global jurisdictions on the municipal and state level accepting cryptocurrency payments for taxes, exploring Bitcoin strategic reserves to protect public treasuries from inflation and passing pro-crypto policies to attract investment.

Taxes, Panama, Bitcoin Adoption — *Source:* *Mayer Mizrachi*

Municipalities and states embrace digital assets

Several municipalities and territories around the globe already accept crypto for tax payments or are exploring various implementations of blockchain technology for government spending.

The US state of Colorado started accepting crypto payments for taxes in September 2022. Much like Panama City said it will do, Colorado immediately converts the crypto to fiat.

In December 2023, the city of Lugano, Switzerland, announced taxes and city fees could be paid in Bitcoin, which was one of the developments that earned it the reputation of being a globally recognized Bitcoin city.

The city council of Vancouver, Canada, passed a motion to become “Bitcoin-friendly city” in December 2024. As part of that motion, the Vancouver local government will explore integrating BTC into the financial system, including tax payments.

North Carolina lawmaker Neal Jackson introduced legislation titled “The North Carolina Digital Asset Freedom Act” on April 10. If passed, the bill will recognize cryptocurrencies as an official form of payment that can be used to pay taxes.

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Politics

Fed’s Powell reasserts support for stablecoin legislation

Published

16 hours ago

April 16, 2025

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<div>Fed's Powell reasserts support for stablecoin legislation</div>

As digital assets gain mainstream adoption, establishing a legal framework for stablecoins is a “good idea,” said US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

In an April 16 panel at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell commented on the evolution of the cryptocurrency industry, which has delivered a consumer use case that “could have wide appeal” following a difficult “wave of failures and frauds,” he said.

Fed's Powell reasserts support for stablecoin legislation

Powell delivers remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago. Source: Bloomberg Television

During crypto’s difficult years, which culminated in 2022 and 2023 with several high-profile business failures, the Fed “worked with Congress to try to get a […] legal framework for stablecoins, which would have been a nice place to start,” said Powell. “We were not successful.”

“I think that the climate is changing and you’re moving into more mainstreaming of that whole sector, so Congress is again looking […] at a legal framework for stablecoins,” he said.

“Depending on what’s in it, that’s a good idea. We need that. There isn’t one now,” said Powell.

This isn’t the first time Powell acknowledged the need for stablecoin legislation. In June 2023, the Fed boss told the House Financial Services Committee that stablecoins were “a form of money” that requires “robust” federal oversight.

Support for stablecoin legislation is growing

The election of US President Donald Trump has ushered in a new era of pro-crypto appointments and policy shifts that could make America a digital asset superpower.

Washington’s formal embrace of cryptocurrency began earlier this year when Trump established the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, with Bo Hines as the executive director.

Hines told a digital asset summit in New York last month that a comprehensive stablecoin bill was a top priority for the current administration. After the Senate Banking Committee passed the GENIUS Act, a final stablecoin bill could arrive at the president’s desk “in the next two months,” said Hines.

Bo Hines (right) speaks of “imminent” stablecoin legislation at the Digital Asset Summit on March 18. Source: Cointelegraph

Stablecoins pegged to the US dollar are by far the most popular tokens used for remittances and cryptocurrency trading.

The combined value of all stablecoins is currently $227 billion, according to RWA.xyz. The dollar-pegged USDC (USDC) and USDt (USDT) account for more than 88% of the total market.

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