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Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.

Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.

This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.

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The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.

The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.

Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.

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But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.

This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.

They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.

Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.

The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.

The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.

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Mr Khan will use the study to argue for a closer relationship with the EU

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Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”

Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.

The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.

Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.

“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”

With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.

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More children from Gaza to be brought to UK for urgent medical treatment

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More children from Gaza to be brought to UK for urgent medical treatment

Efforts to bring Gazan children to the UK for urgent medical treatment are set to be accelerated under new government plans.

Under the scheme, reportedly set to be announced within weeks, more injured and sick children will be treated by specialists in the NHS “where that is the best option for their care”.

It has been suggested that up to 300 children could arrive in the UK from Gaza.

A parent or guardian will accompany each child, as well as siblings if necessary, and the Home Office will carry out biometric and security checks before travel, the Sunday Times has reported.

It is understood this will happen “in parallel” with an initiative by Project Pure Hope, a group set up to bring sick and injured Gazan children to the UK privately for treatment.

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A 15-year-old boy from Gaza brought to the UK for urgent medical treatment this week has told Sky News of his joy and relief. Majd lost part of his face as well as his entire jaw and all his teeth in a tank shell explosion.

A government spokesperson said: “We are taking forward plans to evacuate more children from Gaza who require urgent medical care, including bringing them to the UK for specialist treatment where that is the best option for their care.”

More than 50,000 children are estimated to have been killed or injured in Gaza since October 2023, according to Unicef.

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So far, three children have arrived in the UK for medical treatment with the help of the charity Project Pure Hope.

Around 5,000 have been evacuated in total, with the majority going to Egypt and Gulf countries.

Sir Keir Starmer said last week that the UK was “urgently accelerating” efforts to bring children over for treatment.

The government has also pledged another £1m to help the World Health Organisation in Egypt provide medical support to evacuated Gazans.

The prime minister told the Mirror: “I know the British people are sickened by what is happening.

“The images of starvation and desperation in Gaza are utterly horrifying. We are urgently accelerating efforts to evacuate children from Gaza who need critical medical assistance – bringing more Palestinian children to the UK for specialist medical treatment.”

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Around 100 MPs have signed a letter urging the government to fast track the scheme.

Labour MP Stella Creasy, who co-ordinated the letter, said: “The commitment we all share to help these children remains absolute and urgent – with every day, more are harmed or die, making the need to overcome any barriers to increasing the support we give them imperative.

“We stand ready to support whatever it takes to make this happen and ask for your urgent response.”

Meanwhile, Project Pure Hope has been campaigning for months to create a scheme which would allow for the evacuation of 30 to 50 children.

The charity has raised the money to bring the children and their families to the UK, and cover their medical costs, privately.

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The token is dead, long live the token

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The token is dead, long live the token

The token is dead, long live the token

Crypto tokens have failed retail investors through insider concentration and poor design. Regulation and tokenized real-world assets offer hope for revival.

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

Anyone who advertises Channel crossings or fake passports on social media could face up to five years in prison under new government plans.

Research suggests about 80% of migrants arriving to the UK by small boat used internet platforms during their journey – including to contact agents linked to smuggling gangs.

While it is already illegal to assist illegal immigration, ministers hope the creation of a new offence will give police more powers and disrupt business models.

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Small boat crammed with migrants in Channel

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also planning to introduce a fast-track scheme to tackle the asylum backlog, meaning decisions will be made within weeks.

It comes as official figures show more than 25,000 people have arrived on small boats so far in 2025 – a record for this point in the year.

Ms Cooper said it is “immoral” for smugglers to sell false promises online, adding: “These criminals have no issue with leading migrants to life-threatening situations using brazen tactics on social media.

“We are determined to do everything we can to stop them, wherever they operate.”

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The new offence prohibiting the online promotion of Channel crossings is set to be included in the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill already going through Parliament.

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More migrants arrive in Dover

Officials from the National Crime Agency already work with tech giants to remove such posts – with more than 8,000 taken offline last year.

A Preston-based smuggler who was jailed for 17 years had posted videos of migrants thanking him for his help.

Meanwhile, Albanian smugglers have created promotions for £12,000 “package deals” which claim to offer accommodation and a job in the UK on arrival.

The Conservatives have described the measures as “too little, too late” – and say automatic deportations are the only way to tackle small boat crossings.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: “Labour still has no clear plan to deter illegal entry, no effective enforcement and no strategy to speed up removals. This is a panicked attempt to look tough after months of doing nothing.”

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Waves and kisses from asylum hotel window

It comes as protests outside hotels believed to be housing asylum seekers continue in towns and cities across the UK.

Several demonstrators were detained – with police breaking up brief clashes – outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in north London yesterday.

The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.

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