Image: Labour Deputy leader Angela Rayner meeting newly elected Labour MP Samantha Dixon in Chester
Rishi Sunak’s first by-election test as prime minister was also the first public vote since Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were forced out of Number 10.
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The contest was triggered by the resignation of Christian Matheson, the Labour MP who was suspended the previous October after two allegations of sexual misconduct from a former staff member were upheld.
Labour comfortably won the by-election, with its candidate Samantha Dixon keeping hold of the seat with 17,309 votes, a 60.8% share and nearly 11,000 more than the Conservative candidate.
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While Labour was expected to win the seat, which it has held uninterrupted since 2015, it represented the worst result for the Conservatives in Chester since 1832, with candidate Liz Wardlaw getting 6,335 votes or 22.4%.
Stretford and Urmston – 15 December 2022
A safe Labour seat in Greater Manchester, Stretford and Urmston has voted red since its creation in 1997, and former shadow education secretary Kate Green had been its MP since 2010.
But when Greater Manchester’s deputy mayor – and a former Stretford MP herself – Baroness Hughes, announced she was stepping back from the role, Ms Green was announced as her replacement, saying it was “the right time… to move on to new experiences and opportunities”.
She had been nominated by the region’s mayor, Andy Burnham, and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer gave full-throated support to the shift in direction for the former member of his shadow cabinet.
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Labour’s Andrew Western comfortably held on to the seat for his party
After being approved by the police, fire and crime panel, Ms Green officially stepped down and a by-election was triggered in her constituency.
But it passed without much drama, with Labour’s candidate, Andrew Western, not only keeping hold of the seat, but increasing the majority to almost 70% of the vote.
West Lancashire – 9 February 2023
Labour held on to the seat of West Lancashire when a by-election was triggered by the resignation of the constituency MP Rosie Cooper, who went on to become the chair of the Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.
Ms Cooper, who was elected in 2005, was the victim of a plot to kill her by an alleged member of the banned neo-Nazi group National Action and admitted the stress of her ordeal had “taken its toll”.
Labour’s candidate, Ashley Dalton, retained the seat for the party and secured a majority of 8,326 over Conservative candidate Mike Prendergast, with a 10.52% swing from the Tories to Labour.
In her victory speech, she said the people of her constituency have spoken on “behalf of the country” and sent a message to the Conservative government that they “do not have confidence in them to govern or the prime minister to lead”.
Image: Labour’s Ashley Dalton kept hold of West Lancashire after Rosie Cooper resigned
Uxbridge and South Ruislip – 20 July 2023
Mr Sunak was able to buck the trend of Conservative defeats in by-elections with a win in Uxbridge that came off the back of anti-ULEZ feeling in Mr Johnson’s former constituency.
The vote in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was triggered after the former prime minister stood down as an MPshortly before it was recommended he be suspended for 90 days for his role in the partygate scandal during the COVID pandemic.
Conservative Steve Tuckwell, a local councillor, successfully kept hold of the seat with 13,965 votes to 13,470 for Labour and 526 for the Liberal Democrats – giving him a majority of 495.
Image: Labour’s Danny Beales narrowly lost out to Tory councillor Steve Tuckwell in Boris Johnson’s former seat
Speaking after his victory was announced, Mr Tuckwell said Sadiq Khan “lost Labour this election” by rolling out his Ultra Low Emissions Zone to outer London boroughs.
ULEZ aims to tackle air pollution and congestion by charging cars that don’t meet emission standards £12.50 a day to drive on central London roads.
Following the defeat, splits emerged in Labour after party leader Sir Keir Starmer called on the London mayor to “reflect” on the policy, which was criticised for being introduced during a cost of living crisis.
But Mr Khan stood by it, saying: “It was a difficult decision to take. But just like nobody will accept drinking dirty water, why accept dirty air?”
Selby and Ainsty – 20 July 2023
Selby and Ainsty, the North Yorkshire seat that has been Conservative since it was created in 2010, turned red in the by-election that was held following the departure of the constituency MP Nigel Adams after he was snubbed for a peerage.
Mr Adams, a close ally of Boris Johnson, confirmed he was stepping down from the Commons with “immediate effect” last June, following the former prime minister and former culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
Image: Keir Mather was elected to parliament at the age of just 25
Mr Adams previously said he would quit at the next general election.
Labour overturned a Conservative majority of 20,137 – the largest majority reversed at a by-election – propelling 25-year-old Keir Mather into parliament.
Mr Mather won 16,456 votes, compared with the 12,295 cast for the Tory candidate Claire Holmes, giving Labour a majority of 4,161.
Speaking after his victory, Mr Mather said the Conservative government has “failed us” – and “now it’s time for a fresh start”.
“In a year’s time I believe we will be on the precipice of a Labour government,” he said. “Today we have made history.”
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This South West seat has switched hands over the years in a straight fight between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, but Tory MP David Warburton had comfortably held the constituency with over 50% of the vote since 2015.
However, a scandal uncovered by the Sunday Times led to him being suspended from his party and sitting as an independent for over a year, before eventually resigning from the Commons.
The newspaper reported allegations of sexual harassment – which Mr Warburton denied – and drug taking – which he later admitted to – and an investigation from parliament’s commissioner for standards, Daniel Greenberg, upheld three allegations of sexual misconduct.
But Mr Warburton claimed he had been denied a fair hearing, and resigned in protest at the 14-month investigation, which he said had “inflicted unimaginable and intolerable destruction on my family and on me”.
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Sir Ed Davey and Sarah Dyke celebrated the victory in the usual Lib Dem style
Two weeks later, an independent expert panel upheld his appeal, saying the probe into his conduct had been “materially flawed”. But by that point, he had left parliament and a by-election had been triggered.
The campaign was again a straight fight between the Tories and Lib Dems, with the latter facing a steep hill in overturning the 19,213 majority Mr Warburton had won in the 2019 election.
But local councillor and Lib Dem candidate Sarah Dyke managed to secure her own majority of 11,008 over her Tory rival, Faye Purbrick, and took the seat for her party.
Rutherglen and Hamilton West – 5 October 2023
The by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West was regarded as the first test for Labour against the SNP in Scotland, where it needs to pick up a significant number of seats if it is to win the next general election.
The contest was triggered following a successful recall petition to oust the SNP’s Margaret Ferrier, who was found to have breached COVID restrictions during lockdown in 2020.
Despite hanging on as an independent after the SNP removed the party whip, last June the Commons voted to suspend her for 30 days, triggering the recall petition that saw her lose her job.
Image: Disgraced MP Margaret Ferrier was ousted by a successful recall petition
Labour went on to triumph in the by-election, with its candidate Michael Shanks defeating the SNP’s Katy Loudon by 17,845 votes to 8,399 – a majority of 9,446 and a 20.36% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour.
Sir Keir celebrated the result as “seismic” for his party.
Speaking to Sky News after his win, Mr Shanks said: “There’s absolutely no doubt that this result shows that there’s no part of the United Kingdom that Labour can’t win.
“It’s been a long time in Scotland – Labour building back to a place where people can trust us again.”
Mid Bedfordshire – 19 October 2023
A true blue constituency since 1931, Mid Beds has always been considered a safe Conservative seat in the home counties.
But its controversial MP – and her controversial exit – led to quite the battle when a by-election came to town.
Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries won the seat in 2005 and had steadily increased her majority in the following years to around 60% of the vote.
Ms Dorries’ initial reasoning was around a “new life opening up” for her, including the birth of her granddaughter.
But in the weeks following, it emerged that she had expected to be included in Boris Johnson’s honours list to take a seat in the Lords, and when her name failed to appear, she placed the blame at the door of Rishi Sunak, claiming he had blocked her appointment.
Image: Since leaving, Nadine Dorries has been touring TV studios to promote a book
It took her a total of 81 days from announcing her resignation to actually officially quitting the Commons.
Both Labour and the Lib Dems had their eyes set on her seat, and a fierce battle broke out between the parties – with accusations of personal attacks on candidates.
But come the night, it was Labour’s Alistair Strathern who won the contest, getting over 1,000 votes more than the Tories’ Festus Akinbusoye and more than 4,000 votes ahead of the Lib Dem Emma Holland-Lindsay.
Tamworth – 19 October 2023
This Midlands seat had been Conservative since the party took power in 2010, and after the Tory MP Chris Pincher secured over 66% of the vote in 2019, there wasn’t much fear it could change its allegiances.
But the behaviour of the MP not only led to a by-election in that seat, but the downfall of a prime minister.
Mr Pincher had been the deputy chief whip in Boris Johnson’s government but quit in the summer of 2022 after allegations he had groped two men at a London members club.
It took days for the then prime minister to bow to pressure to suspend him from the party, and when it emerged Mr Johnson had known about other allegations before appointing Mr Pincher, his party turned on him, eventually leading to his exit from Number 10.
Meanwhile, Mr Pincher continued to sit as an independent MP.
Image: Chris Pincher’s conduct led to the by-election in Tamworth
An investigation by parliament’s watchdog concluded his conduct had been “completely inappropriate, profoundly damaging to the individuals concerned, and represented an abuse of power”, with them recommending a suspension of eight weeks – a long enough penalty to trigger a recall petition in the constituency.
Mr Pincher appealed against the sanction, but the independent panel stood by it, and rather than face the possible recall petition, the former frontbencher resigned, saying he did not want his constituents to be “put through further uncertainty”.
After a campaign where accusations of sleaze were very prominent, Labour’s Sarah Edwards secured the party’s second win of the night, with the second biggest by-election swing from the Conservatives since 1945.
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We’re back. From Monday, MPs will stream under the portcullis back into the Commons chamber. But this is far from a straightforward autumn, with dangers for all the leaders lurking everywhere.
On the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast, released each morning at 7.45am, Anne McElvoy and I give the first guide of the day to what’s coming up.
To get you back in the mood, listen to our back-to-school episode and our “summer box set” deep dives on key issues, and listen daily from Monday.
Here are 30, no less, things to look out for the autumn, explaining why you can’t tune out from what promises to be a very exciting term.
1. Despite firm Downing Street denials before the summer that this would happen now, there’s highly likely to be a ministerial reset next week.
2. Although the cabinet is likely to be safe, and people like Bridget Phillipson were given personal guarantees from Sir Keir Starmer that they are going nowhere, some in Number 10 have been pushing that the whips should be included in the reshuffle after the welfare vote catastrophe before the summer.
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3. Find out the very latest when we return properly on Monday, Politics at Sam and Anne’s – back daily, in your feeds from 7.30am.
4. And it’s going to be a good one, since everyone expects it to be a “revenge” reshuffle – among the targets are thought to be some ministers actively believed to have been helping the welfare revolt, and loyalists want to see them sacked.
“Loyalists called Josh” will be promoted, said one aide, waspishly.
5. Having redeployed the Number 10 principal private secretary, the official who helps filter advice to Sir Keir, this critical role is now expected to be filled by Dan York Smith, a longtime Treasury aide.
This matters because for many years, this Treasury official was in charge of the budget process and subsequently worked on tax policy. So, Number 10 cannot pretend it doesn’t have the expertise in the run-up to the budget.
6. Indeed, the date of the budget might come next week. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) needs at least 10 weeks’ notice.
By my calculations, that would seem to take us to the second week of November, just past half term. Here’s hoping there’s no clash.
7. You can hear more about Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ challenges in the budget in an economics and Treasury special of the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast featuring Ed Conway, part of our summer deep dive into key issues facing the government.
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8. The OBR’s twice-yearly assessments have turned into hideous trials for Reeves, since she repeatedly decided to borrow so close to tight self-imposed limits.
Reeves could decide this autumn to move from two to one OBR assessments a year – if you don’t ask the question, you can’t get a bad answer.
9. At the start of the summer, economists were suggesting the OBR would say at the November budget that there is a £20-30bn black hole to meet her fiscal rules. Over the summer, that seems to have extended to £40-50bn. Thankfully for ministers, nobody knows – yet.
10. The Treasury has adopted a position of refusing to shut down any idea being floated to raise money in the budget. Therefore, EVERY idea is being treated with equal prominence and horror.
Whether or not people – eg house movers – start adjusting behaviour because of the speculation.
11. First quote to bookmark, Rachel Reeves in response to suggestions that the answer is a wealth tax on 1 August: “In the budget last year, we got rid of the non-domicile status in our tax system, so people who make Britain their home have to pay their taxes here.
“We increased taxes on private jets, on second homes, and increased capital gains tax (CGT), so I think we’ve got the balance right in terms of how we tax those with the broadest shoulders.”
12. Second quote to bookmark: After the Tories suggested Labour might scrap the capital gains tax exemption on primary residences before the election, Sir Keir said in June 2024 that he could “absolutely” guarantee that they would not.
“This was just a desperate story by the Tories in relation to capital gains tax on primary residences,” he said, adding: “There was never a policy so it doesn’t need ruling out, but let’s rule it out in case anybody pretends that it was.”
A Labour spokesman went further, saying that Labour would not put CGT on primary residences and said: “It’s a bad idea.” Put this point in your favourites.
13. Neither the main parties will be returning to Westminster with too much of a spring in their step. This week’s YouGov/Sky News poll put Reform UK on 28%; Labour on 20%; the Tories on 17%; Lib Dems on 16% and the Greens – mid leadership contest until next Tuesday – on 11%.
The Labour figure is their lowest so far this parliament (and indeed, lowest since 2019).
14. The conference season hits with a bang. Next Friday and Saturday is Reform UK in Birmingham, 5 and 6 September. The Trades Union Congress (TUC) is the following week, Sunday 7 to Wednesday 10 September.
Labour conference begins the following Sunday – the 27th – in Liverpool, Greens on 3 October and Tories begin on 5 October in Manchester.
15. There will be extra episodes of Politics at Sam and Anne’s over the conference season. We are going to do Sunday lunchtime episodes at Labour and Tories, since everyone’s weeks start a day earlier.
There’ll be quick turnaround episodes after the key speeches. Make sure you keep coming back to our podcast feed.
16. Of all the different conferences, the Tories’ feels like it could be the most consequential. It’s Kemi Badenoch’s first as leader – the leadership contest was underway last time.
She’s likely to announce a policy of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and pausing the various refugee conventions signed after the Second World War, although Nigel Farage has stolen her thunder.
Even front benchers were unimpressed with her “wasted” summer – talking about her loss of faith rather than hammering Labour and Reform UK on the economy. It needs to go well for her.
17. And in the middle of this is Donald Trump’s state visit from 17 September to 19 September, while the UN General Assembly (which may have Angela Rayner rather than Sir Keir attending) is 23-27 September, and the European Political Community is in Budapest on 2 October. The Commons is back after conference season on 13 October – which feels late.
18. Migration, asylum and deportation have dominated the summer. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper did manage a holiday – but has lots to do.
There were 50,976 outstanding appeals as of March, which is almost double the number compared with 2024, and seven times higher than in 2023 on top of the almost 79,000 asylum claims awaiting an initial decision.
As of March, there were a total of 106,771 asylum seekers in receipt of taxpayer-funded support, including 32,345 in hotels. Asylum seekers received this support for an average of 413 days.
Taxpayers coughed up £3.1bn for hotel accommodation for asylum seekers in 2023-24, which equated to about £8m a day. Phew.
19. Some of the migrants detained before deportation to France are appealing on human rights grounds, delaying the first individuals going back.
Finally, the Home Office is waiting for the French government to change maritime law to empower French police to tackle migrants in the Channel, but the government may collapse before it can.
20. While Reform UK has pledged to leave the ECHR and the Tories are likely to follow suit at conference, Labour moves are much more limited. Yvette Cooper is reviewing Article 3 (privacy) and Article 8 (family life). Will we hear the outcome of that at Labour conference?
21. Also this autumn, from the Home Office, you’re going to see two other big things. There’s the (delayed) strategy to halve violence against women and girls. There wasn’t much money for this extremely ambitious target in the spending review, but charities are still being told to think big.
22. There’s also going to be a police white paper. This needs to generate a reform plan, which can form part of a pitch to the Treasury for more money for policing in the budget. Could this include force consolidation? Not yet clear.
23. You can hear more about all the challenges in home affairs with veteran home affairs journalist and one-time Labour adviser Danny Shaw on a Politics at Sam and Anne’s special. Shaw is far from clear that the French plan will work as a deterrent, and points out that the rest of the EU has to agree to make the plan permanent.
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25. US network CBS has reported that the US has stopped sharing Ukraine intelligence with the Five Eyes network, including Britain. This will be high on the agenda for the state visit when Sir Keir meets Trump.
US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said in a memo that all information on Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations be withheld from US allies, and talks were reportedly classed as “NOFORN” by US intelligence, meaning no foreign dissemination. Gabbard subsequently denied this.
26. In other foreign news for the autumn, the European Commission has to determine its mandate for the new deal with the UK, which will bring our SPS – food and agriculture safety – rules in line within the bloc, and consequently mean less friction in trade.
There’s a “common understanding” but no final decision on the EU side. EU relations minister Nick Thomas-Symonds, who is leading on this, thinks he can complete negotiations by 2027. Will he succeed?
But he managed at least to pause the resident (junior) doctors’ strikes. While there isn’t a resolution, this is a start. Can he follow through?
28. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has a much trickier autumn ahead. She will oversee reform of Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) which – if mishandled – could lead to the biggest clash with Labour MPs since the welfare revolt.
It may not – but we haven’t heard much detail or pitch rolling. They want to “tilt (special needs) back to the mainstream” – with Canada as a model. It’s “going to take years”, and there is no overnight fix, I’m told. But this is delicate and MPs are worried.
There’s also a wider white paper that seeks to boost extra-curricular activities, and Phillipson will continue her focus on early years, although nursery funding remains a contentious area.
29. …deep breath. There’s also a curriculum review, seeking to embed “oracy, criticality and digital skills”, while the delayed new Ofsted grading system comes in.
Also, they’re working on how to improve university funding sustainability – which sounds like annual inflation increases in tuition fees.
30. Will the Lords kill the Assisted Dying Bill? This will come down firstly to arcane rules on timing in the Lords. There are two sitting Fridays a month.
But then, even if it manages to pass the Lords, there are currently no further sitting Fridays in the Commons scheduled for this session, so the government will come under pressure to put on some extras – but have said they won’t intervene to give it more time.
One senior government figure (who backs it) told me they thought the chances of it passing are worse than 50/50.