Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.
Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.
This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.
The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.
The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.
Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.
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But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.
This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.
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They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.
Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.
The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.
The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.
Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”
Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.
The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.
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Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.
“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”
With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.
The teenager who stabbed 15-year-old Elianne Andam to death in a row over a teddy bear has been found guilty of murder.
Hassan Sentamu, 18, attacked Elianne with a kitchen knife in “white-hot anger at having been disrespected” after she stood up for his ex-girlfriend, the Old Bailey heard.
He had been due to return items including a teddy bear to Elianne’s friend following their break-up but instead came armed, wearing two pairs of gloves and a facemask.
Elianne collapsed outside the Whitgift Centre in central Croydon, south London, after being stabbed four times in what police described as a “frenzied” attack, which was caught on CCTV, on 27 September 2023.
Her friend compared Sentamu to a character from the Netflix crime drama Top Boy and said Elianne had her hand out begging him to “stop”.
He threw his gloves and mask in a bin and hid the knife in a garden but was arrested within 90 minutes after police stopped a bus near his home in New Addington.
Sentamu, who was 17 at the time, admitted manslaughter but denied murder on the basis of “loss of control” because he has autism.
There were sobs in the public as he was found guilty by a majority verdict of 10 to two, while he stood propping himself up with both arms in the dock and crying.
He was also found guilty on a charge of having a blade. Sentamu had also denied this charge – claiming he had a lawful reason for carrying it.
Grime artist Stormzy was among thousands of mourners who gathered at a candlelit vigil after Elianne – who went to the private Old Palace of John Whitgift School – was killed, and there is now a memorial to her at the scene.
‘I’ll do it again’
The month after Elianne’s death, Sentamu got into a row with a fellow inmate in youth custody and when he was accused of killing girls, said: “I’ll do it again,” the court heard.
“I’ll do it to your mum,” he said. “Do you want to end up like her, six feet under? I’ll do the same again.”
Sentamu, who came to the UK aged five with his mother and three sisters, had a history of violent and aggressive behaviour, as well as making repeated threats to take his own life.
He was given a police caution after pulling a knife out in class and telling a teacher he wanted to kill himself when he was just 12 years old.
Sentamu was expelled from one school after threatening another child with a knife and in other incidents put girls in headlocks and threatened to stab a student with a pair of scissors.
While in foster care he threatened to harm a cat or chop off its tail, the court heard.
‘I can’t let this slide’
Weeks before he killed Elianne, who wanted to become a human rights lawyer, Sentamu said: “The real me is evil, dark and miserable” in a message to a friend.
The day before the attack, he had met Elianne and her friend, who had recently split up with him, at the Whitgift Centre, where the girls “teased” him and his ex-girlfriend splashed him with water.
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Attack caught on CCTV
Sentamu, who was studying sports science at Croydon College, later sent what police called a “chilling” message to a friend saying: “I can’t let this slide bro.”
He met Elianne, his ex-girlfriend and another of their friends the following day to swap belongings.
The girl handed him a plastic bag of his clothes, but he did not have her teddy bear as arranged, and Eliane snatched the bag back.
A Snapchat video shows Elianne smiling and laughing before her expression turned to “abject terror,” jurors were told.
Sentamu pulled the kitchen knife from his trousers and repeatedly stabbed her, plunging the blade 12cm into her neck.
‘He exacted vengeance on a girl running away’
Prosecutor Alex Chalk KC earlier told jurors Sentamu was “angry… having brooded on the insult and he took the knife to the scene to reassert dominance”.
“He exacted vengeance on a young girl clearly running away from him and posing no threat,” he said.
Sentamu, who was diagnosed with autism in 2020, did not give evidence.
His barrister Pavlos Panayi KC said it was not disputed the killing was a “grotesque overreaction” but the “central issue” in the case was Sentamu’s autism history and symptoms.
Metropolitan Police Detective Chief Inspector Becky Woodsford said it was a “violent, aggressive and frenzied knife attack on a young girl”.
“Elianne was doing what was right, she was standing up for her friend,” she added.
Sir Keir Starmer’s visit to the presidential palace in Kyiv was met with a message from Russia when a drone was blasted out of the sky above.
The prime minister was meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss the next steps for Ukraine, on Sir Keir’s first visit to Kyiv since his election victory last July.
The sound of anti-aircraft gunfire was audible in the palace courtyard as air sirens warned of possible drone attacks. While air sirens blaring are a daily occurrence in Ukraine, it’s rare for drones to be shot out of the sky over the presidential palace.
One drone was shot down, although eyewitnesses think there were at least two drones operating and suspect they were probably surveillance drones, as the one taken out didn’t explode on impact.
President Zelenskyy gave his Russian enemies short shrift, saying when the drone was detected: “We will say hello to them too.”
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Starmer and Zelenskyy lay flowers at memorial
An audacious move by Moscow, Sir Keir said the drone threat was “a reminder of what Ukraine is facing every day” and that the war was brought about by “Russian aggression”.
The PM reiterated his support for Ukraine’s eventual accession to NATO, and noted the discussion at the NATO summit in Washington last year – when its allies put Ukraine on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership.
However, President Zelenskyy, perhaps with an eye on the incoming Trump administration, was more forthright in his response to the question of Western allies supporting Ukraine’s membership. He told reporters the US, Slovakia, Germany and Hungary “cannot see us in NATO”.
President Trump has recently acknowledged Moscow’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean, as the president-elect said: “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that.”
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Starmer visits burns victims
‘Nothing is off the table’
This was a news conference big on symbolism as Sir Keir vowed to stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes and put Kyiv in the strongest possible position for negotiations with Russia.
He pledged to work with Ukraine in the months ahead to ensure security guarantees for the country in any ceasefire deal, while also opening the door to possible troop deployments in training or a peacekeeping capacity, saying “nothing is off the table”.
“We must be totally clear – a just and lasting peace comes through strength,” said Sir Keir.
The PM also pledged to send 1,540 artillery barrels to Ukraine as President Zelenskyy called for more weapons, blaming Russia’s advance in the eastern part of Ukraine on the slow supply of weapons.
A new mobile defence system and a ramping up in the training of troops were also promised by Sir Keir.
President Zelenskyy also acknowledged in the news conference that much is uncertain around this conflict and what security guarantees Ukraine might get from its allies ahead of conversations with Trump.
The NHS says hospitals in England are “jampacked” after their busiest week of the winter so far – but flu cases have fallen slightly.
Despite another 1,300 beds being opened up, only 6% of the nearly 104,000 total were free – down from 7.2%.
Flu continues to have a huge impact – with cases 3.5 times higher than last year – however, numbers are down from their recent peak.
NHS England said 4,929 beds were occupied by flu patients on average for the week ending 12 January, a dip of 9% from the 5,408 the week before.
It comes as many hospitals, in places such as Liverpool, Birmingham and Plymouth, have recently been forced to declare critical incidents due to flu cases pushing them to the brink.
“While it is encouraging news flu cases are no longer increasing, hospitals are not out of the woods yet,” said Professor Julian Redhead, NHS national clinical director for urgent and emergency care.
“Staff are working incredibly hard in sometimes challenging surroundings, but winter viruses are much higher than usual for this time of year.
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“And this coupled with the cold snap and problems discharging patients means hospitals are jampacked with patients – even as more beds have been opened to manage increased demand.”
There were 650 patients in hospital with vomiting bug norovirus last week, a rise of 4% on the previous seven days and 44% on last year; while 1,112 people were hospitalised with COVID.
For all winter viruses combined, bed occupation was 5,851, down 8% on the week before but far higher than the 2,169 last year.
Around 29 million flu, RSV and COVID vaccines have been carried this season and while the national booking system has shut, eligible people can still get a free jab at pharmacies or via their GP.
Meanwhile, the latest stats also show handover times from ambulance to A&E improved in the most recent week.
The average was just over 41 minutes, compared with nearly 54 minutes in the previous seven days. However, that’s still slower than the 38 minutes recorded last year.
Nurses have also revealed some patients are dying in corridors and going undiscovered for hours, according to a Royal College of Nursing report.
It said demoralised staff were looking after as many as 40 patients in a single corridor, unable to access oxygen, cardiac monitors, suction and other lifesaving equipment.