Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.
Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.
This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.
The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.
The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.
Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.
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But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.
This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.
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They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.
Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.
The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.
The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.
Image: Mr Khan will use the study to argue for a closer relationship with the EU
Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”
Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.
The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.
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Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.
“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”
With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.
Britain should have access to the EU’s rearmament fund before the end of the year but “wounds of Brexit” mean some member states want it to be limited, the bloc’s foreign affairs chief has said.
Kaja Kallas told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby that the “technical details” of Security Action for Europe (SAFE) still need to be sorted out.
SAFE is a €150bn (£126bn) fund to provide loans to EU nations and other participants to bolster their defences.
As part of Sir Keir Starmer’s new reset deal with the EU, a new defence partnership was struck that will allow the UK to access it.
Asked when this might be, Ms Kallas said: “The SAFE instrument has just been finalised between the institutions but it also needs approval from the European Council. And when that is done, we also move on with the implementation of that, and that is in the coming months.”
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Who wins from the UK-EU deal?
Asked about reports that some member states think there should be a limit on what the UK can access, she said: “Of course these discussions are there. We have the wounds from Brexit very clearly.
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“I mean you wanted to exit the European Union and then there are many voices who say that you shouldn’t have the same benefits from the European instruments that the European Union countries have.”
According to The Times, France is pushing to freeze the UK out of 85% of the fund.
Image: Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs. Pic: Reuters
Asked if Britain’s access should be higher, Ms Kallas said her personal view is that given the current climate “we should do both. We should invest more in European industry. But we should also cooperate with our outside partners like the UK”.
She added that the EU hasn’t had discussions in terms of percentage, because the fund is “down to the capabilities”.
“That is, I think, more important than numbers,” she said.
The UK government has said accessing SAFE will support thousands of British jobs.
Defence was one of the many areas that has been agreed as part of the newUK and the EU trade deal struck by Sir Keir Starmer – five years after Brexit kicked in.
A key part of the deal involves giving European fishing boats a further 12 years of access to British waters.
In return, there will be increased access to EU eGates for British passport holders in Europe, no health certificates every time pets travel to Europe and the removal of red tape from most UK food and drink imports and exports.
In a statement on Monday, Lineker said: “Football has been at the heart of my life for as long as I can remember – both on the pitch and in the studio.
“I care deeply about the game, and about the work I’ve done with the BBC over many years. As I’ve said, I would never consciously repost anything antisemitic – it goes against everything I stand for.
“However, I recognise the error and upset that I caused, and reiterate how sorry I am. Stepping back now feels like the responsible course of action.”
Image: Lineker has fronted Match Of The Day since 1999. PA
Lineker said he deleted the post when he learned about the rat’s symbolism, adding that he would “never knowingly share anything antisemitic”.
In a video posted to Instagram, the pundit added: “I’ve stood up for minorities and humanitarian issues and against all forms of racism all of my life, including, of course, antisemitism, which I absolutely abhor.
“There’s no place for it and never should be.”
He went on to thank the “brilliant, talented” people he has worked with and described his relationship with the BBC as “long and wonderful”.
He added: “But it’s the right time for the organisation and myself to go our separate ways.”
Lineker’s last appearance on the BBC will be on Sunday 25 May, the final day of the season.
What are the BBC guidelines on impartiality?
Gary Lineker signed a five-year deal with the BBC in 2020, under which he agreed to adhere to their impartiality rules.
The rules were then updated after his return to Match Of The Day in 2023.
The latest regulations say high-profile BBC presenters should be able to express their views on political issues as long as they stop short of campaigning.
It does not clarify what would constitute political campaigning for the big-name presenters.
The guidelines also stress the importance of “high standards of civility in public discourse”, which includes treating others with respect, even in the face of abuse and not using offensive or aggressive language.
The policy only applies to presenters outside of its news coverage. News presenters are still subject to stricter impartiality guidelines.
‘A defining voice in football coverage’
Also confirming Lineker’s exit, BBC director general Tim Davie said: “Gary has acknowledged the mistake he made. Accordingly, we have agreed he will step back from further presenting after this season.
“Gary has been a defining voice in football coverage for the BBC for over two decades. His passion and knowledge have shaped our sports journalism and earned him the respect of sports fans across the UK and beyond.
“We want to thank him for the contribution he has made.”
Image: Kelly Cates, Mark Chapman and Gabby Logan will share the role of presenting Match of the Day. Pic BBC/PA
The former England star announced in November he would step down from Match Of The Day this year, but was set to return to front the World Cup in 2026, as well as FA Cup coverage.
The presenter was temporarily suspended from the BBC in March 2023 after an impartiality row over comments he made criticising the then Conservative government’s asylum policy.
He will be replaced on Match Of The Day by Gabby Logan, Kelly Cates and Mark Chapman, who will share the presenting role from the next Premier League season.
He is also the co-founder of podcast producing company Goalhanger, which makes the popular The Rest Is History series and its spin-offs about politics, football, entertainment and money.
Lineker parting ways with the BBC also includes the licensing deal for Goalhanger podcast titles on BBC Sounds which ends this year, the PA news agency reported.
A “significant amount of personal data” of people who applied to the Legal Aid Agency – including criminal records – was accessed and downloaded by hackers, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.
The group that carried out the cyber attack says it accessed 2.1 million pieces of data, but the MoJ has not verified that figure, it is understood.
The government became aware of the incident on 23 April, but realised on Friday it was more extensive than first thought.
An MoJ source put the breach down to the “neglect and mismanagement” of the previous government, saying vulnerabilities in the Legal Aid Agency systems have been known for many years.
The Legal Aid Agency (LAA), is an executive agency, sponsored by the MoJ, which is responsible for administering legal aid funding – around £2.3bn in 2023/24.
The data accessed affected those who applied for legal aid in the last 15 years, and may include contact details and addresses of legal aid applicants, their dates of birth, national insurance numbers, criminal history, employment status and financial data such as contribution amounts, debts and payments.
The MoJ has urged anyone who applied for legal aid since 2010 to update any passwords that could have been exposed, and be alert to unknown messages and phone calls.
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The organisation’s digital services, which are used by legal aid providers to log their work and get paid, have been taken offline.
‘We needed to take radical action’
Legal Aid Agency chief executive Jane Harbottle has apologised for the breach and acknowledged the news would be “shocking and upsetting”.
“Since the discovery of the attack, my team has been working around the clock with the National Cyber Security Centre to bolster the security of our systems so we can safely continue the vital work of the agency,” she said.
“However, it has become clear that, to safeguard the service and its users, we needed to take radical action. That is why we’ve taken the decision to take the online service down,” she said.
Ms Harbottle said contingency plans are in place for those who need legal support and advice.
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Retail disruption to ‘last months’
The Law Society, an organisation representing solicitors across the UK, blamed the attack on Legal Aid’s “antiquated IT system”.
“The incident once again demonstrates the need for sustained investment to bring the LAA’s antiquated IT system up to date and ensure the public have continued trust in the justice system,” said a Law Society spokesperson.
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said it is working with the National Crime Agency and National Cyber Security Centre to investigate the data breach.
The National Crime Agency said it was aware of the incident and was working closely with the MoJ to “better understand the incident and support the department”.
It comes after retailers Co-op, Harrods and Marks & Spencer were hit by cyber attacks, although there is no suggestion that they are connected to the incident at the LAA.