Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.
Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.
This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.
The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.
The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.
Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.
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But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.
This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.
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They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.
Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.
The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.
The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.
Image: Mr Khan will use the study to argue for a closer relationship with the EU
Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”
Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.
The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.
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Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.
“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”
With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) went from a jihadist movement once aligned to al Qaeda to forming the official government of Syria.
It was a monumental transformation for them, their country and the wider Middle East.
But potentially too for British people who went to Syria– and who were stripped of their citizenship as a result, on the grounds of national security.
Tauqir Sharif, better known as Tox, went to Syria in 2012 as an aid worker. He was accused of being part of a group affiliated with al Qaeda, which he denies, and the then-home secretary Amber Rudd deprived him of his British citizenship in 2017.
“As of now, I am deprived of my UK citizenship but I’m not a convicted terrorist – and the reason for that is because we refused, we boycotted, the SIAC [Special Immigration Appeals Commission] secret courts, which don’t allow you to see any of the evidence presented against you,” he said.
“And one of the things that I always called for was, look, put me in front of a jury, let’s have an open hearing.”
Image: Tox went to Syria in 2012
HTS is still a proscribed terrorist organisation but the British government has now established relations with it.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy travelled to Damascus to meet the jihadist-turned-Syrian interim president – the man who swapped his nom de guerre of al Jolani for Ahmed al Sharaa.
Image: David Lammy shakes hands with Ahmed al Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy
If the UK government takes HTS off the terror list, what does that mean for those who lost their citizenship after being accused of being part of it?
People who joined HTS are only a subset among the scores of people who have had their citizenship revoked – a tool the UK government has been quick to use.
According to a report by the Parliamentary Joint Human Rights Committee, the UK “uses deprivation of citizenship orders more than almost any country in the world”.
The peak of that was in 2017, and mainly in relation to Syria – especially in the case of people joining Islamic State, perhaps most famously Shamima Begum.
Image: Shamima Begum was stripped of her British citizenship on national security grounds
And because people cannot be made entirely stateless, and need to have a second nationality, or be potentially eligible for one, there are worries of racism in who the orders apply to.
Countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh offer dual nationality, whereas other nations do not. In 2022, the Institute of Race Relations said “the vast majority of those deprived are Muslim men with South Asian or Middle Eastern/North African heritage”.
Legal grey areas
Sky News submitted Freedom of Information requests to the Home Office asking for a breakdown of second nationalities of those deprived of citizenship, but was refused twice on national security grounds.
The independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, Jonathan Hall KC, told Sky News there are issues around transparency.
“I do think there is a problem when you have people whose relationship with the country that they’re left with is really technical and they may never have realised that they had that citizenship before and may never gone to that country,” he said.
“Me and my predecessors have all said, owing to how frequently this power is used, it should be something that the independent reviewer should have the power to review. I asked, my predecessor asked, we’ve both been told no, so I agree there’s a lack of transparency.”
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“We can’t sort of go through previous cases nitpicking through it, wasting time and money to bring it up to date,” he added.
“We can’t be naive because the intent to go out, the decision to go in itself is a huge decision for them. So it shows commitment when they’re there, they then, if they take an active participation in the organisations that they’ve been accused of joining, again, that involves training and perseverance and dedication to the cause.”
But those born and raised in Britain, who joined the same cause, and lost their citizenship as a result, might reasonably ask why that should remain the case.
Criminals face being banned from pubs, sports grounds and concerts under new government plans to give judges powers to pass tougher community sentences.
The new measures, which would apply to people in England and Wales, “should remind all offenders that, under this government, crime does not pay”, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood said.
Offenders’ freedom could also be curtailed with limits on driving, travel bans and restriction zones confining them to specific areas, the government said.
Similar measures could also apply to prisoners let out on licence, while drug testing would be expanded to include all those released, rather than just those with a history of substance misuse.
While judges are currently able to impose limited bans for specific crimes, such as football bans for crimes committed inside a stadium on match day, the new measures would allow for such bans to be handed down for any offence.
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Inside one of Britain’s most overcrowded prisons
The justice secretary said: “When criminals break society’s rules, they must be punished.
“Those serving their sentences in the community must have their freedom restricted there too.
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“These new punishments should remind all offenders that, under this government, crime does not pay.
“Rightly, the public expect the government to do everything in its power to keep Britain safe, and that’s what we’re doing.”
The proposals are part of the Labour government’s efforts to tackle overcrowding in prisons.
Back in June, it emerged that prisoners were to be transferred to lower security jails in an effort to ease overcrowding, as part of a new measure quietly unveiled by the government.
Sky News reported earlier this month how the prison system was close to collapse on a number of occasions between autumn 2023 and summer 2024, according to an independent review by former chief inspector of prisons, Dame Anne Owers.
The report said there was a systemic problem which has led to recurring prison capacity crises over the last 18 years.
Protesters have gathered across the country as groups demonstrated against asylum seeker housing and were met by anti-racism campaigners.
Demonstrations under the Abolish Asylum System slogan were held in England, Scotland and Wales, including in Bristol, Exeter, Tamworth, Cannock, Aberdeen, Mold, Perth, Nuneaton, Liverpool, Wakefield, Newcastle, Horley and Canary Wharf.
Counter-protests were also organised by campaign group Stand Up to Racism.
Image: Police officers scuffle with demonstrators during protests at Castle Park in Bristol. Pic: PA
In Bristol, mounted police separated the two groups in the Castle Park, with officers scuffling with protesters.
Police kept around 200 anti-immigration protesters draped in English flags away from roughly 50 Stand Up to Racism protesters in Horley, Surrey.
Image: People take part in a protest outside the Sheraton Four Points Hotel in Horley, Surrey. Pic: PA
One man, wearing a West Ham United football shirt, was held by police as he yelled: “You’re not welcome here, you’re not welcome here, you’re not welcome here” at anti-racism protesters.
Anti-immigration protesters also chanted: “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy, Tommy Robinson” in support of the far-right activist, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon.
Image: A confrontation between a protester and a counter-protester outside the Sheraton Four Points Hotel in Horley, Surrey. Pic: PA
The anti-racism protesters chanted “say it loud, say it clear, refugees are welcome here” and held signs calling for solidarity and to “stop deportations”.
The Stand Up to Racism protesters were shepherded into a smaller area as they continued to chant: “No hate, no fear, refugees are welcome here”, which was met with “No they’re f****** not” from the other side of the street.
Image: People inside the hotel look at protesters outside the Radisson Hotel in Perth. Pic: PA
In Perth, protesters gathered outside the Radisson Hotel.
The anti-migration protesters held up signs with slogans such as “Perth is full – empty the hotels” and “get them out”.
Image: People take part in a counter-protest outside the Radisson Hotel in Perth. Pic: PA
Stand Up to Racism Scotland said it had achieved “victory” in Perth, with more than 200 gathering to oppose the Abolish Asylum System demonstration.
In Liverpool, a dispersal order was issued to try and contain the protests.
Saturday’s events come amid continued tension around the use of the hotels for asylum seekers.
Regular protests had been held outside the Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex, which started after an asylum seeker housed there was charged with sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl on 10 July.
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, 38, was charged with trying to kiss a teenage girl and denies the allegations. He is due to stand trial later this month.