Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.
Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.
This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.
The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.
The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.
Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.
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But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.
This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.
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They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.
Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.
The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.
The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.
Image: Mr Khan will use the study to argue for a closer relationship with the EU
Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”
Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.
The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.
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Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.
“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”
With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.
A nationwide police operation to track down those in grooming gangs has been announced by the Home Office.
The National Crime Agency (NCA) will target those who have sexually exploited children as part of a grooming gang, and will investigate cases that were not previously progressed.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said in a statement: “The vulnerable young girls who suffered unimaginable abuse at the hands of groups of adult men have now grown into brave women who are rightly demanding justice for what they went through when they were just children.
“Not enough people listened to them then. That was wrong and unforgivable. We are changing that now.
“More than 800 grooming gang cases have already been identified by police after I asked them to look again at cases which had closed too early.
“Now we are asking the National Crime Agency to lead a major nationwide operation to track down more perpetrators and bring them to justice.”
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Starmer to launch new grooming gang inquiry
The NCA will work in partnership with police forces around the country and specialist officers from the Child Sexual Exploitation Taskforce, Operation Hydrant – which supports police forces to address all complex and high-profile cases of child sexual abuse – and the Tackling Organised Exploitation Programme.
It comes after Sir Keir Starmer announced a national inquiry into child sex abuse on Saturday, ahead of the release of a government-requested audit into the scale of grooming gangs across the country, which concluded a nationwide probe was necessary.
The prime minister previously argued a national inquiry was not necessary, but changed his view following an audit into group-based child sexual abuse led by Baroness Casey, set to be published next week.
Ms Cooper is set to address parliament on Monday about the findings of the near 200-page report, which is expected to warn that white British girls were “institutionally ignored for fear of racism”.
One person familiar with the report said it details the institutional failures in treating young girls and cites a decade of lost action from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA), set up in 2014 to investigate grooming gangs in Rotherham.
The report is also expected to link illegal immigration with the exploitation of young girls.
Career spy Blaise Metreweli will become the first woman to head MI6 in a “historic appointment”, the prime minister has announced.
She will take over from Sir Richard Moore as the 18th Chief, also known as “C”, when he steps down in the autumn.
“The historic appointment of Blaise Metreweli comes at a time when the work of our intelligence services has never been more vital,” Sir Keir Starmer said in a statement released on Sunday night.
“The United Kingdom is facing threats on an unprecedented scale – be it aggressors who send their spy ships to our waters or hackers whose sophisticated cyber plots seek to disrupt our public services.”
Of the other main spy agencies, GCHQis also under female command for the first time.
Anne Keast-Butler took on the role in 2023, while MI5 has previously twice been led by a woman.
Until now, a female spy chief had only headed MI6– also known as the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) – in the James Bond movies.
Image: Blaise Metreweli is the first woman to be named head of MI6. Pic: Reuters
Dame Judi Dench held the fictional role – called “M” in the films instead of “C” – between 1995 and 2015.
Ms Metreweli currently serves as “Q”, one of four director generals inside MI6.
The position – also made famous by the James Bond films, with the fictional “Q” producing an array of spy gadgets – means she is responsible for technology and innovation.
Ms Metreweli, a Cambridge graduate, joined MI6 in 1999.
Unlike the outgoing chief, who spent some of his service as a regular diplomat in the foreign office, including as ambassador to Turkey, she has spent her entire career as an intelligence officer.
Much of that time was dedicated to operational roles in the Middle East and Europe.
Ms Metreweli, who is highly regarded by colleagues, also worked as a director at MI5.
In a statement, she said she was “proud and honoured to be asked to lead my service”.
“MI6 plays a vital role – with MI5 and GCHQ – in keeping the British people safe and promoting UK interests overseas,” she said.
“I look forward to continuing that work alongside the brave officers and agents of MI6 and our many international partners.”
Sir Richard said: “Blaise is a highly accomplished intelligence officer and leader, and one of our foremost thinkers on technology. I am excited to welcome her as the first female head of MI6.”
A woman has died after falling into the water at a popular beauty spot in the Scottish Highlands.
The 23-year-old had fallen into the water in the Rogie Falls area of Wester Ross.
Police Scotland confirmed emergency services attended the scene after being called at 1.45pm on Saturday.
“However, [she] was pronounced dead at the scene,” a spokesperson said.
“There are no suspicious circumstances and a report will be submitted to the Procurator Fiscal.”
Rogie Falls are a series of waterfalls on the Black Water, a river in Ross-shire in the Highlands of Scotland. They are a popular attraction for tourists on Scotland’s North Coast 500 road trip.