Connect with us

Published

on

Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.

Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.

This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.

Politics latest: Post Office investigator ‘one of worst in history’

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge

Sky News Monday to Thursday at 7pm.
Watch live on Sky channel 501, Freeview 233, Virgin 602, the Sky News website and app or YouTube.

Tap here for more

The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.

The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.

Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.

More on Brexit

But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.

This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.

They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.

Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.

The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.

The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.

Stock image of Sadiq Khan
Image:
Mr Khan will use the study to argue for a closer relationship with the EU

Read more:
Post-Brexit border controls to cost businesses £330m a year
Starmer: We don’t want to diverge from EU

Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”

Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.

The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.

Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.

“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”

With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.

Continue Reading

Politics

SEC’s Crenshaw says agency playing ‘regulatory Jenga’ with crypto

Published

on

By

SEC’s Crenshaw says agency playing ‘regulatory Jenga’ with crypto

SEC’s Crenshaw says agency playing ‘regulatory Jenga’ with crypto

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s sole Democratic Commissioner has said the agency is “playing a game of regulatory Jenga” with its approach to the crypto industry and market regulation under the Trump administration.

In May 19 remarks at the SEC Speaks event, Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw cautioned against what she described as a dangerous dismantling of “discrete but interrelated rules” on crypto and the wider market.

She likened market stability to a “Jenga tower” that the agency’s rules had “carefully developed over the years,” which could topple if some rules were removed.

In addition to a lamentable loss of staff, Crenshaw said the SEC has used staff guidance to effectively reverse rules without proper analysis or public comment, particularly around crypto

“Our statements on these crypto-related issues are the equivalent of a wink and nod intended to convey that we do not plan to rigorously apply our laws in certain, specific situations.”

She added that the regulator has abandoned enforcement actions, especially in crypto markets, creating what she calls “regulation by non-enforcement.”

“I am deeply troubled by the Commission’s abandonment of swaths of our enforcement program,” she said. 

SEC’s Crenshaw says agency playing ‘regulatory Jenga’ with crypto
SEC Commissioner Crenshaw. Source: SEC

Crenshaw, the SEC’s last remaining Democrat commissioner, said the agency’s “about-face” is problematic for a host of reasons, such as corroding its reputation in court, undermining its credibility, and casting doubt on the state of “longstanding and fundamental case law.”

Related: SEC is scaling back its crypto enforcement unit: Report

Crenshaw, who had also opposed the SEC’s settlement with Ripple, said in her latest remarks that the 2022 FTX collapse was an example of what a “large-scale crypto crisis” can look like. 

“Those risks have not gone away, but the calls for serious regulatory scrutiny are a lot quieter these days,” she said.

“Failing to appreciate and address these risks and complexities destines us to repeat hard lessons with high stakes as crypto becomes increasingly entangled with traditional finance.”

In comparison, remarks from the SEC’s Republican commissioners welcomed the agency’s embrace of the crypto sector. 

Crypto was “languishing in SEC limbo”

SEC chair Paul Atkins said at the SEC Speaks event that “crypto markets have been languishing in SEC limbo for years,” adding that the agency should not be in the business of stifling innovation of crypto companies.

Commissioner Hester Peirce, who heads the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, said in remarks that the agency’s approach under the Biden administration has “evaded sound regulatory practice and must be corrected.”

She also claimed that crypto did not come under the purview of securities laws because “most currently existing crypto assets in the market” are not securities. 

“Even if a broad swath of the crypto assets trading in secondary markets today were initially offered and sold subject to an investment contract, they clearly are no longer bought and sold in securities transactions. Many of these crypto assets are functional.”

Commissioner Mark Uyeda echoed the sentiment of his peers, stating that the SEC “should undertake efforts to provide assurances that regulation by enforcement will not be a tool used for future policymaking.”

Magazine: Arthur Hayes $1M Bitcoin tip, altcoins ‘powerful rally’ looms: Hodler’s Digest

Continue Reading

Politics

US Senate moves forward with GENIUS stablecoin bill

Published

on

By

US Senate moves forward with GENIUS stablecoin bill

US Senate moves forward with GENIUS stablecoin bill

The US Senate has voted to advance a key stablecoin-regulating bill after Democrat Senators blocked an attempt to move the bill forward earlier in May over concerns about President Donald Trump’s sprawling crypto empire.

A key procedural vote on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act, passed in a 66-32 vote on May 20.

Several Democrats changed their votes to pass the motion to invoke cloture, which will now set the bill up for debate on the Senate floor.

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s key backers, said on May 15 that she thinks it’s a “fair target” to have the GENIUS Act passed by May 26 — Memorial Day in the US.

Government, United States, Stablecoin
The US Senate voted 66-32 to advance debate on the GENIUS stablecoin bill. Source: US Senate

The GENIUS Act was introduced on Feb. 4 by US Senator Bill Hagerty and seeks to regulate the nearly $250 billion stablecoin market — currently dominated by Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USDC (USDC).

The bill requires stablecoins be fully backed, have regular security audits and approval from federal or state regulators. Only licensed entities can issue stablecoins, while algorithmic stablecoins are restricted.

Several Democratic senators withdrew support for the bill on May 8, blocking a motion to move it forward, citing concerns over potential conflicts of interest involving Trump’s crypto ventures and anti-money laundering provisions.

Related: Circle plans IPO but talks with Ripple, Coinbase could lead to sale: Report

The bill was revised soon after to receive enough bipartisan support to proceed to a vote.

Hagerty’s stablecoin bill builds on the discussion draft he submitted for former Representative Patrick McHenry’s Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act in October.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Continue Reading

Politics

DOJ is investigating Coinbase data breach— Report

Published

on

By

DOJ is investigating Coinbase data breach— Report

DOJ is investigating Coinbase data breach— Report

The US Department of Justice is reportedly conducting a probe over Coinbase’s contracted customer service agents in India, who accepted bribes in exchange for allowing criminals access to user data.

According to a May 19 Bloomberg report, DOJ investigators are looking into the data breach, which Coinbase disclosed to the public on May 15. The exchange reported that a group of customer support contractors — subsequently fired — “abused their access to […] systems to steal the account data for a small subset of customers.”

“We have notified and are working with the DOJ and other US and international law enforcement agencies and welcome law enforcement’s pursuit of criminal charges against these bad actors,” said Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, according to Bloomberg.

Related: New Zealand man arrested in $265M crypto scam tied to FBI probe

Though “no passwords, private keys, or funds were exposed” according to Coinbase, the data breach resulted in social engineering attacks targeting users, including a Sequoia Capital partner, with losses estimated at up to $400 million. The attackers also attempted to extort $20 million from Coinbase in exchange for not disclosing the breach, which the company refused.

Backlash in the courts

The attempted social engineering attacks have resulted in Coinbase users filing several lawsuits against the exchange, alleging that the company mishandled their personal data. One user, a retired artist named Ed Suman, reported losing $2 million to the scammers.

Coinbase’s stock price fluctuated following the news of the breach and an unrelated probe from the US Securities and Exchange Commission over its reported “verified user” numbers. Cointelegraph reached out to Coinbase for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Magazine: Father-son team lists Africa’s XRP Healthcare on Canadian stock exchange

Continue Reading

Trending