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The UK economy returned to growth in November, according to official figures that are being closely watched amid fears the prospect of recession remains on a knife edge.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported an early estimate for output growth of 0.3% for the month – recovering from a 0.3% decline witnessed in October when many weather-sensitive sectors were hit by heavy rain.

The data showed retail was a major contributor to that growth as Christmas shopping got into gear with Black Friday sales.

Despite that, there are two scenarios under which a recession – that’s two consecutive quarters of contraction – could still materialise.

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Revisions to ONS figures have the economy recording zero growth in the second quarter of 2023. Any further determination downwards would tick the box because, as things stand, the economy fell by 0.1% in the following June-August quarter.

The other possibility is that the third quarter of negative growth is followed by another between October and December.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the latest data: “The economy contracted a little over the three months to November, with widespread falls across manufacturing industries, which were partially offset by increases in public services, which saw less impact from strike action.

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Breakdown of 2023 UK economy

“GDP bounced back in the month of November, however, led by services with retail, car leasing and computer games companies all having a buoyant month.

“The longer-term picture remains one of an economy that has shown little growth over the last year.”

Growth has essentially been flatlining due to the impact of the surge in costs since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Bank of England action to tame the pace of that price growth.

The series of 14 consecutive interest rate rises imposed by the Bank is designed to choke growth by taking demand out of the economy.

That programme was paused late last summer amid evidence it was having the desired effect as the rate of inflation was down sharply from its peak above 11%.

Data has not flagged renewed concerns since with key indicators for the Bank, such as wage growth, also easing from highs seen in mid-2023.

Financial markets and the Bank are at odds, however, on the timing of potential interest rate cuts – a move that would fan the flames of the current mortgage price war even more.

Markets see the Bank cutting its main interest rate from the current 5.25% level to around 4% over the course of the year, likely beginning in May.

A lift in economic growth will not help the Bank’s position move towards that of the markets and members of the monetary policy committee remain worried that inflation – at 3.9% – is still almost double its target rate of 2%.

Upwards pressures remain the risk of higher prices from disruption to shipping in the Red Sea.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said of the ONS data: “While growth in November is welcome news, it will be slower as we bring inflation back to its 2% target.

“But we have seen that advanced economies with lower taxes have grown more rapidly, so our tax cuts for businesses and workers put the UK in a strong position for growth into the future.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson, Sarah Olney, responded: “This Conservative government has brought us nothing but stagnation.

“Sunak’s talk of turning a corner has not survived contact with economic reality.

“This no growth prime minister has no plan and no idea how to get the economy moving again.”

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M&S tells agency workers to stay at home after cyberattack

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M&S tells agency workers to stay at home after cyberattack

Marks & Spencer (M&S) has ordered hundreds of agency workers at its main distribution centre to stay at home as it grapples with the unfolding impact of a cyberattack on Britain’s best-known retailer.

Sky News has learnt that roughly 200 people who had been due to undertake shift work at M&S’s vast Castle Donington clothing and homewares logistics centre in the East Midlands have been told not to come in amid the escalating crisis.

Agency staff make up about 20% of Castle Donington’s workforce, according to a source close to M&S.

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The retailer’s own employees who work at the site have been told to come in as usual, the source added.

“There is work for them to do,” they said.

M&S disclosed last week that it was suspending online orders as a result of the cyberattack, but has provided few other details about the nature and extent of the incident.

In its latest update to investors, the company said on Friday that its product range was “available to browse online, and our stores remain open and ready to welcome and serve customers”.

“We continue to manage the incident proactively and the M&S team – supported by leading experts – is working extremely hard to restore online operations and continue to serve customers well,” it added.

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It was unclear on Monday how long the disruption to M&S’s e-commerce operations would last, although retail executives said the cyberattack was “extensive” and that it could take the company some time to fully resolve its impact.

Shares in M&S slid a further 2.4% on Monday morning, following a sharp fall last week, as investors reacted to the absence of positive news about the incident.

M&S declined to comment further.

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Deliveroo shares surge 17% as £2.7bn takeover looms

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Deliveroo shares surge 17% as £2.7bn takeover looms

Shares in meal delivery platform Deliveroo have surged by 17% as investors react to news of a £2.7bn takeover proposal.

The company revealed after the market had closed on Friday that it had been in talks since 5 April with US rival DoorDash.

Deliveroo suggested then it was likely the 180p per share offer would be recommended, though full terms were yet to be agreed.

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At that price, the company’s founder and chief executive, Will Shu, would be in line for a windfall of more than £170m.

Deliveroo further announced, before trading on Monday, that it had suspended its £100m share buyback programme.

The opening share price reaction took the value to 171p per share – still shy of the 180p on the table – and well under the 390p per share flotation price seen in 2021.

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Deliveroo’s shares have weakened nearly 50% since their market debut.

The deal is not expected to face regulatory hurdles as it provides DoorDash access to 10 new markets where it currently has no presence.

But a takeover would likely represent a blow to the City of London given the anticipated loss of a tech-focused player.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “If the deal is done at that price, the company will fail to shake off the ‘Floperoo’ tag it was saddled with after its disastrous IPO debut in 2021.

“Even though Deliveroo has finally broken through into profitable territory, the prolonged bout of indigestion around its share price has continued.

“The surge in demand for home deliveries during the pandemic waned just as competition heated up. Deliveroo’s foray into grocery deliveries has helped it turn a profit but it’s still facing fierce rivals.”

She added: “The DoorDash Deliveroo deal will be unappetising for the government which has been trying to boost the number of tech companies listed in London.

“If Deliveroo is purchased it would join a stream of companies leaving the London Stock Exchange, with too few IPOs [initial public offerings] in the pipeline to make up the numbers.”

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US trade deal ‘possible’ but not ‘certain’, says senior minister

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US trade deal 'possible' but not 'certain', says senior minister

A trade deal with the US is “possible” but not “certain”, a senior minister has said as he struck a cautious tone about negotiations with the White House.

Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips there was “a serious level of engagement going on at high levels” to secure a UK-US trade deal.

However, Mr McFadden, a key ally of Sir Keir Starmer, struck a more cautious tone than Chancellor Rachel Reeves on the prospect of a US trade deal, saying: “I think an agreement is possible – I don’t think it’s certain, and I don’t want to say it’s certain, but I think it’s possible.”

He went on to say the government wanted an “agreement in the UK’s interests” and not a “hasty deal”, amid fears from critics that Number 10 could acquiesce a deal that lowers food standards, for example, or changes certain taxes in a bid to persuade Donald Trump to lower some of the tariffs that have been placed on British goods.

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And asked about the timing of the deal – following recent reports an agreement was imminent – Mr McFadden said: “We’ll keep working with the United States and keep trying to get to an agreement in the coming weeks.”

As well as talks with the US, the UK has also ramped up its efforts with the EU, with suggestions it could include a new EU youth mobility scheme that would allow under-30s from the bloc to live, work and study in the UK and vice versa.

Mr McFadden said he believed the government could “improve upon” the Brexit deal struck by Boris Johnson, saying it had caused “an awful lot of bureaucracy and costs here in the UK”.

He said “first and foremost” on the government’s agenda was securing a food and agriculture and a veterinary agreement, saying it was “such an important area for the UK and an area where we’ve had so much extra cost and bureaucracy because of Brexit”.

He added: “But again, as with the United States, there’s no point in calling the game before it’s done. We’ve still got work to do, and we’re doing that work with our partners in the EU.”

The Cabinet Office minister also rejected suggestions the UK would have to choose between pursuing a trade deal with the US and one with the EU – the latter of which has banned chlorinated chicken in its markets – as has the UK – but which the US has historically wanted.

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On the issue of chlorinated chicken, Mr McFadden said the government had “made clear we will not water down animal welfare standards with either party”.

“But I don’t agree that it’s some fundamental choice beyond where we have to pick one trading partner rather than another. I think that’s to misunderstand the nature of the UK economy, and I don’t think would be in our interests to put all our eggs in one basket.”

Also speaking to Trevor Phillips was Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who said the government should be close to closing the deal with the US “because we got very close last time President Trump was in office”.

She also insisted food standards should not be watered down in order to get a deal, saying she did not reach an agreement with Canada when she was in government for that reason.

“What Labour needs to do now is show that they can get a deal that isn’t making concessions, so we can have what we had last month before the trade tariffs, and we need serious people doing this,” she said.

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