Connect with us

Published

on

The UK economy returned to growth in November, according to official figures that are being closely watched amid fears the prospect of recession remains on a knife edge.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported an early estimate for output growth of 0.3% for the month – recovering from a 0.3% decline witnessed in October when many weather-sensitive sectors were hit by heavy rain.

The data showed retail was a major contributor to that growth as Christmas shopping got into gear with Black Friday sales.

Despite that, there are two scenarios under which a recession – that’s two consecutive quarters of contraction – could still materialise.

Money latest – Food delivery company fined for mass-spamming campaign

Revisions to ONS figures have the economy recording zero growth in the second quarter of 2023. Any further determination downwards would tick the box because, as things stand, the economy fell by 0.1% in the following June-August quarter.

The other possibility is that the third quarter of negative growth is followed by another between October and December.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the latest data: “The economy contracted a little over the three months to November, with widespread falls across manufacturing industries, which were partially offset by increases in public services, which saw less impact from strike action.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Breakdown of 2023 UK economy

“GDP bounced back in the month of November, however, led by services with retail, car leasing and computer games companies all having a buoyant month.

“The longer-term picture remains one of an economy that has shown little growth over the last year.”

Growth has essentially been flatlining due to the impact of the surge in costs since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Bank of England action to tame the pace of that price growth.

The series of 14 consecutive interest rate rises imposed by the Bank is designed to choke growth by taking demand out of the economy.

That programme was paused late last summer amid evidence it was having the desired effect as the rate of inflation was down sharply from its peak above 11%.

Data has not flagged renewed concerns since with key indicators for the Bank, such as wage growth, also easing from highs seen in mid-2023.

Financial markets and the Bank are at odds, however, on the timing of potential interest rate cuts – a move that would fan the flames of the current mortgage price war even more.

Markets see the Bank cutting its main interest rate from the current 5.25% level to around 4% over the course of the year, likely beginning in May.

A lift in economic growth will not help the Bank’s position move towards that of the markets and members of the monetary policy committee remain worried that inflation – at 3.9% – is still almost double its target rate of 2%.

Upwards pressures remain the risk of higher prices from disruption to shipping in the Red Sea.

Read more:
Tesco raises profit forecast while M&S also reports strong Christmas sales
Microsoft briefly overtakes rival Apple as world’s most valuable company

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said of the ONS data: “While growth in November is welcome news, it will be slower as we bring inflation back to its 2% target.

“But we have seen that advanced economies with lower taxes have grown more rapidly, so our tax cuts for businesses and workers put the UK in a strong position for growth into the future.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson, Sarah Olney, responded: “This Conservative government has brought us nothing but stagnation.

“Sunak’s talk of turning a corner has not survived contact with economic reality.

“This no growth prime minister has no plan and no idea how to get the economy moving again.”

Continue Reading

Business

FTSE 100 closes at record high

Published

on

By

FTSE 100 closes at record high

The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.

The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.

It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.

Money blog: Major boost for mortgage holders

The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.

Why is this happening?

Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.

This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.

The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.

Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.

What is the FTSE 100?

The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.

Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.

Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.

Read more:
Russia sanctions: Fears over UK enforcement by HMRC
Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.

If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.

The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.

A good close for markets

It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.

Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week

Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.

Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.

Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.

Continue Reading

Business

Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

Published

on

By

Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.

The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.

Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.

Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.

He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.

While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.

Follow our Money blog: Major boost for mortgage holders

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Trump’s threat of tariffs explained

“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”

In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.

The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.

The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs could mean for rest of the world

The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.

It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What has Trump done since winning?

Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.

Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.

“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”

Continue Reading

Business

Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

Published

on

By

Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.

Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.

Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.

It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.

Money blog: Surprise as FTSE 100 soars to new record high

That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.

Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.

More on Interest Rates

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How pints helped bring down inflation

If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.

Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.

The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.

His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.

News of more cuts has boosted markets.

The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.

State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.

The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.

Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.

Continue Reading

Trending