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The main street in Des Moines, leading to the State Capitol building, is covered by a thick layer of snow, as icicles dangle from signs welcoming visitors to the home of the famous Iowa caucuses.

One woman is waiting for the bus and a man is shovelling snow from the pavement in front of his shop but it is, otherwise, a ghost town.

Months of campaigning lead to the Iowa caucuses, the state’s version of a primary election, which kicks off the race to the White House, where Republicans vote for their preferred candidate to be president.

But nobody could have prepared for this once-in-a-decade storm. On Monday evening, when caucusgoers cast their vote, it is forecast to feel like -40C with wind chill – cold so extreme it can cause frostbite in a matter of minutes.

Travelling on Iowa’s roads for a couple of hours, I saw at least a dozen lorries and cars that had crashed or skidded off the tarmac entirely.

The treacherous conditions will undoubtedly affect voter turnout, but it’s difficult to say for certain which of the candidates will be most impacted.

Many Donald Trump voters are elderly and live rurally so may have to travel further to the closest voting station, but his fan base also tends to be more fervent, which the former president hopes will be telling.

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“You have the worst weather, I guess, in recorded history,” he said, “But maybe that’s good because our people are more committed than anybody else.”

Read more:
What are caucuses and why is the first one in Iowa so important?
Who is Nikki Haley? The woman vying for the Republican nomination
Five things to know about Ron DeSantis

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What happens at the Iowa caucus?

The Iowa State Capitol building
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The Iowa State Capitol building

Regardless of the weather, if recent polls come to bear, it’s unlikely any of the other candidates will come close to beating Mr Trump.

A final poll from NBC puts Mr Trump’s voter share at 48%.

Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina who served as ambassador to the UN in Mr Trump’s administration, is his closest competition with 20% of the vote.

Donald Trump in Iowa for the caucuses
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Donald Trump in Iowa for the caucuses

Nikki Haley, centre, is seen in Iowa ahead of the voting
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Nikki Haley, centre, is seen in Iowa ahead of the voting

The current Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, characterised by some as a Mr Trump tribute act, has 16% of the vote, according to the poll.

In Urbandale, a suburb of Des Moines, Jill Cameron, an evangelical Christian, is helping her husband clear snow from their neighbour’s driveway.

More than half of Iowa’s evangelical population support Mr Trump, and Mrs Cameron is proud to be among them.

“I’m really into pro-life and pro-country,” she says, “I think we need to shut our borders because we’re being invaded, and we’re losing lots of rights. Our country is a mess.”

Ron DeSantis, right, is trailing Donald Trump and Nikki Haley
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Ron DeSantis is trailing Donald Trump and Nikki Haley

I ask how being such a committed Christian tallies with what Mr Trump has said in the past, about grabbing women by the genitals and, more recently, about immigrants “poisoning the blood” of America.

“Course, nobody likes to hear people speak so disrespectfully,” Mrs Cameron says. “But I also liked what he did and where our country was when he was in office.”

The momentum in the chasing pack is with Ms Haley, thanks to a strong performance in recent debates and a laser focus on foreign policy, including unwavering support for Ukraine and Israel.

A billboard by the Democratic National Committee criticises Trump's record ahead of the Iowa vote
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A billboard by the Democratic National Committee criticises Trump’s record ahead of the Iowa vote

But many of the would-be Haley voters I speak to like her because they believe she presents a more moderate alternative to Mr Trump.

Polls show that if she was selected as the Republican nominee, she would likely prevail over President Biden in a general election, as things stand.

“I think she’s probably got the best chance of winning against Biden from what the polls say,” Tyler Sparks, who I also meet on a residential street in Urbandale, says. “Maybe we can kind of close the gap between both sides of the parties and actually make the country better, rather than just spinning our wheels, ploughing snow.”

Ms Haley has made some notable missteps on the campaign trail in the last few weeks, including mistaking the name of one of Iowa’s most celebrated basketball stars, not a sin easily forgiven here.

Even with the polls showing a commanding lead, Team Trump is managing expectations.

“Don’t go raising the bar,” Mr Trump’s long-standing advisor Jason Miller, tells me,

“I’m happy with the win. A win is a win and we’ll be comfortable with that.” Mr Miller knows a thumbs up in Iowa is disproportionately important.

If a candidate does well here, momentum can carry them to victory in other states.

The question is – whose supporters and how many of them – will brave the deep freeze to reach the ballot box.

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Trade war: Trump reveals first nations to pay delayed ‘liberation day’ tariffs

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Trade war: Trump reveals first nations to pay delayed 'liberation day' tariffs

Donald Trump has revealed hefty trade tariffs against at least seven countries, to be applied from 1 August.

The initial announcement, via his Truth Social platform, concerned Japan and South Korea.

Both would face 25% rates on all goods, he said.

Malaysia and Kazakhstan were later added to the list, while South Africa was told it faced a 30% rate.

Laos and Myanmar were hit with 40% duties.

It marks the restart of the threatened “liberation day” escalation that was paused in April, for 90 days, to allow for negotiations to take place with all US trading partners.

The US president is sending each nation a letter to inform them of the tariff rates they face and warn against retaliatory tariffs.

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Those duties will come on top of sector-specific tariffs – such as 50% rates covering steel – which are already in force.

Money latest: Retailers release images of ‘prolific shoplifters’

Mr Trump says in the letters that rates can be adjusted “upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your country”.

Country-specific tariffs had been due to take effect from Wednesday this week but Mr Trump had earlier revealed that nations would start to get letters instead, setting out the US position.

Duties would take effect from 1 August, without any subsequent deal being agreed, it was announced.

The letters sent to Japan and South Korea cited persistent trade imbalances for the rates and included the sentence: “We invite you to participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World, by far.”

He ended both letters by saying, “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The European Union – the biggest single US trading partner – is among those set to get a letter in the coming days.

Mr Trump has also threatened an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning itself with the “anti-American policies” of BRICS nations – those are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and whose members also include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

The UK, bar a massive shock U-turn, should be exempt.

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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?

The country was the first to be granted a trade deal, of sorts, in May and the Trump administration has claimed many others had been offering concessions since the clock ticked down to 9 July.

The UK is not expected to face any changes to its current 10% rate due to the trade truce, which came into effect last week.

While UK-made cars aerospace products face no duties under a new quota arrangement, it still remains to be seen whether 25% tariffs on UK-produced steel and aluminium will be cancelled.

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Can the UK avoid steel tariffs?

They could, conceivably, even be raised to 50%, as is currently the case for America’s other trading partners, because no agreement on eliminating the rate was reached when the government struck its deal in May.

It all amounts to more uncertainty for the UK steel sector.

A No 10 spokesman said on Monday: “Our work with the US continues to get this deal implemented as soon as possible.

“That will remove the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminium, making us the only country in the world to have tariffs removed on these products.

“The US agreed to remove tariffs on these products as part of our agreement on 8 May. It reiterated that again at the G7 last month. The discussions continue, and will continue to do so.”

China and Vietnam have also secured some US concessions.

The dollar strengthened but US stock markets lost ground in the wake of the letters to Japan and South Korea being made public, with the broad-based S&P 500 down by 1%.

Stock markets in both Japan and South Korea were closed for the day but US-traded shares of SK Telecom and LG Display were down 7.5% and 5.8% respectively.

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Texas floods: The victims and people missing that have been named so far

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Texas floods: The victims and people missing that have been named so far

Details of those who have died and those who are missing after US flash floods are slowly emerging – with several young girls among those unaccounted for.

At least 82 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 10 girls and a counsellor from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.

As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.

Tributes to those who died, and appeals for those who are still missing, are now being shared.

A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding
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Officials said 27 girls from Camp Mystic were reported missing after the flash floods in Texas

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Texas searches for missing children

Who are the victims?

Renee Smajstrla, eight

Renee Smajstrla, 8, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
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Renee Smajstrla. Pic: Family handout

Renee’s uncle Shawn Salta confirmed the eight-year-old had died, and said she was one of 700 children staying at Camp Mystic.

“Renee has been found and while not the outcome we prayed for, the social media outreach likely assisted the first responders in helping to identify her so quickly,” he said.

“We are thankful she was with her friends and having the time of her life, as evidenced by this picture from yesterday.

“She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic.”

Sarah Marsh, eight

Sarah Marsh, 8, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
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Sarah Marsh. Pic: Family handout

Mountain Brook mayor Stewart Welch confirmed the death of eight-year-old Sarah, from Alabama, who was a pupil at Cherokee Bend Elementary.

“This is an unimaginable loss for her family, her school, and our entire community,” he said. “Sarah’s passing is a sorrow shared by all of us, and our hearts are with those who knew and loved her.

“As we grieve alongside the Marsh family, we also remember the many others affected by this tragedy.”

Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine

Lila Bonner (L), 9, and Eloise Peck, 9, both died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
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Lila Bonner (left) and Eloise Peck. Pic: Family handout

Eloise’s mother Missy Peck told local broadcaster FOX4 that her daughter and Lila were best friends and cabinmates at Camp Mystic.

Writing about her daughter on Instagram, Ms Peck said: “She lost her life in the tragic flooding… our family is grieving and processing this unimaginable loss together.”

Lila’s family told NBC Dallas Fort Worth, a local affiliate network of Sky’s US partner network, that they were in “unimaginable grief”, and said: “We ache with all who loved her.”

Janie Hunt, nine

Janie Hunt, 9, from Dallas, died from the flooding at Camp Mystic, Texas SQUARE
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Janie Hunt

Janie’s family confirmed her death to a reporter from NBC Dallas Fort Worth, who said “her mother tells me she’s devastated”.

Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic

Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic. Pic: Family handout
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Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic. Pic: Family handout

Kerr County judge Rob Kelly told the Washington Post that Mr Eastland, who owned the camp died in a helicopter on the way to a Houston hospital.

Local outlet The Kerrville Daily Times reported he was killed while trying to save the girls from the flash floods.

“It doesn’t surprise me at all that his last act of kindness and sacrifice was working to save the lives of campers,” guest columnist Paige Sumner said in the Daily Times’ tribute to Mr Eastland.

Blair and Brooke Harber, 13 and 11

Blair, 13, and Brooke Harber, 11. Pic: Family handout
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Blair and Brooke Harber. Pic: Family handout

RJ Harber told CNN his daughters died during flooding in Kerr County, saying Blair “was a gifted student and had a generous kind heart”.

He added that Brooke “was like a light in any room, people gravitated to her and she made them laugh and enjoy the moment”.

He also said both his parents were still missing.

Jane Ragsdale, owner of Heart O’ the Hills camp

Jane Ragsdale. Pic: Heart O’ the Hills SQUARE
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Jane Ragsdale. Pic: Heart O’ the Hills

On Heart O’ the Hills’s website, the camp confirmed it was “right in the path of the flood” along the Guadalupe River.

While there were no campers in residence, Jane Ragsdale died. The camp said: “We at the camp are stunned and deeply saddened by Jane’s death.

“She embodied the spirit of Heart O’ the Hills and was exactly the type of strong, joyful woman that the camp aimed to develop with the girls entrusted to us each summer.”

Julian Ryan, 27

Julian Ryan, 27 -  Died trying to save family. Pic: GoFundMe SQUARE
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Julian Ryan. Pic: GoFundMe

Relatives of Mr Ryan told local news broadcaster KHOU 11 that he died saving his family from floodwaters in Texas Hill County.

They described how he tried to smash a window to help them escape the rising water, but it cut his arm and he bled out before help could arrive.

Tanya Burwick, 62

 Tanya Burwick. Pic: Rhea Brunswick via AP
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Tanya Burwick. Pic: Rhea Brunswick via AP

Ms Burwick was heading to work at a Walmart in the San Angelo area early Friday when the flood waters hit.

When she didn’t show up for work, her employer filed a missing persons report and sent another colleague to look for the 62-year-old.

Police found Ms Burwick’s unoccupied SUV fully submerged later that day, before locating her body on Saturday morning, “several blocks” away from her car.

Her daughter, Lindsey Burwick, said her mother was a beloved parent, grandparent and colleague to many, adding: “She lit up the room and had a laugh that made other people laugh.”

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Who is still missing?

Penny, Emlyn, and 11-year-old Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey

Penny and Emlyn Jeffrey. Pic: Family handout
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Penny and Emlyn Jeffrey. Pic: Family handout

Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey, 11. Pic: Family handout
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Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey. Pic: Family handout

Christin Jeffrey Jones posted on Facebook that her parents Penny and Emlyn Jeffrey are missing, as well as her niece Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey.

She said her family were in Hunt, Texas, and “were spending the night at their cabin on the river at Casa Bonita which is now completely gone”.

“We ask for continued prayers and miracles,” she said. “Please share the word.”

Charlene and Mike Harber, 74 and 76

Charlene, 74, and Mike Harber, 76. Pic: Family handout
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Charlene and Mike Harber. Pic: Family handout

RJ Harber also told CNN that his parents, Charlene and Mike Harber, are still missing.

He believes the couple have died.

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Generations of Texas elite in mourning over Camp Mystic tragedy

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Generations of Texas elite in mourning over Camp Mystic tragedy

The area around the Guadalupe River is home to dozens of summer camps, but it is Camp Mystic that was long favoured by the Texas elite.

For almost a century, the daughters of senators, presidents, and oil barons would stream through the gates each summer.

“The camp has always served as a near-flawless training ground for archetypal Texas women,” wrote Texas Monthly writer Mimi Swartz in a 2011 profile.

First Lady Laura Bush was a camp counsellor there during college, while President Lyndon B Johnson sent daughters and granddaughters through the green gates.

Texas flash flooding latest: 21 children among dead

Nicole Nugent Covert, granddaughter of Lady Bird and Lyndon B Johnson, described dropping her daughter off at Mystic.

“You get a feeling when you drive up to the Hill Country and you’d see the Mystic sign, and you’d feel the weight of the world had been lifted off you,” she told the Austin American-Statesman in 2010.

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“There were no worries. I still feel that way. When I drop my daughter off, I’m jealous.”

Once inside the Christian camp, hundreds of girls would learn to ride horses, catch fish, and hunt. They wore white on Sundays, when fried chicken was also served.

The halcyon summer days would culminate in a war-canoe race between two competing “tribes”.

Items lie scattered inside a cabin at Camp Mystic. Pic: Reuters
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Items lie scattered inside a cabin at Camp Mystic. Pic: Reuters

A deposit for the camp cost $400 – while the current full fee is unknown in 2011 it cost $4,300 (£3,150) for a 30-day session.

Camp director dies ‘saving girls’

Founded in 1926, the camp was bought by Agnes Doran Stacy, a Dallas socialite, and her husband, Pop, in 1939, and has stayed in the family for the next three generations.

Mystic’s family bond came under pressure in 2011 when the Eastland siblings – grandchildren of Agnes – got into a messy legal battle over the 725-acre camp. The family eventually reached a confidential settlement in 2012.

A Camp Mystic sign is seen near the entrance. Pic: AP
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A Camp Mystic sign is seen near the entrance. Pic: AP

Current director Dick Eastland, who ran the camp alongside his wife Tweety, has been confirmed dead by his grandson. George Eastland said his grandfather died trying to save the girls in his care when the flash floods suddenly hit.

At first, 27 of the camp’s girls were missing, their cabins swept away in waters that rose suddenly at 4am. That figure is now 11 – 10 campers and one counsellor.

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Renee Smajstrla, Eloise Peck, Janie Hunt and Lila Bonner are among those confirmed to have died.

Renee Smajstrla, 8, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
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Renee Smajstrla, 8, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout

“She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic,” Renee’s uncle, Shawn Salta, wrote in tribute to her.

The ‘Mystic mafia’ mourns

In her 2011 article, Swartz described a “Mystic mafia” of women that stretched across the world, their bonds forged by summers at camp.

And those legions of women are mourning today.

“Camp Mystic has been my safe haven for years – a place of peace, joy, and true belonging,” one wrote on social media.

“It’s where light lives and God’s love overflows. A true slice of Heaven on earth. This weekend, tragedy has struck this sacred space, and my heart is shattered.”

“Mystic gave me more than I really know how to put into words. my heart breaks for the campers, staff, and their families in this impossible time,” another wrote.

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