Iowa caucuses: It might take more than a winter storm to knock Trump off course as Republicans choose their candidate for president

Published

2 years ago

January 14, 2024

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The main street in Des Moines, leading to the State Capitol building, is covered by a thick layer of snow, as icicles dangle from signs welcoming visitors to the home of the famous Iowa caucuses.

One woman is waiting for the bus and a man is shovelling snow from the pavement in front of his shop but it is, otherwise, a ghost town.

Months of campaigning lead to the Iowa caucuses, the state’s version of a primary election, which kicks off the race to the White House, where Republicans vote for their preferred candidate to be president.

But nobody could have prepared for this once-in-a-decade storm. On Monday evening, when caucusgoers cast their vote, it is forecast to feel like -40C with wind chill – cold so extreme it can cause frostbite in a matter of minutes.

Travelling on Iowa’s roads for a couple of hours, I saw at least a dozen lorries and cars that had crashed or skidded off the tarmac entirely.

The treacherous conditions will undoubtedly affect voter turnout, but it’s difficult to say for certain which of the candidates will be most impacted.

Many Donald Trump voters are elderly and live rurally so may have to travel further to the closest voting station, but his fan base also tends to be more fervent, which the former president hopes will be telling.

“You have the worst weather, I guess, in recorded history,” he said, “But maybe that’s good because our people are more committed than anybody else.”

Regardless of the weather, if recent polls come to bear, it’s unlikely any of the other candidates will come close to beating Mr Trump.

A final poll from NBC puts Mr Trump’s voter share at 48%.

Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina who served as ambassador to the UN in Mr Trump’s administration, is his closest competition with 20% of the vote.

The current Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, characterised by some as a Mr Trump tribute act, has 16% of the vote, according to the poll.

In Urbandale, a suburb of Des Moines, Jill Cameron, an evangelical Christian, is helping her husband clear snow from their neighbour’s driveway.

More than half of Iowa’s evangelical population support Mr Trump, and Mrs Cameron is proud to be among them.

“I’m really into pro-life and pro-country,” she says, “I think we need to shut our borders because we’re being invaded, and we’re losing lots of rights. Our country is a mess.”

I ask how being such a committed Christian tallies with what Mr Trump has said in the past, about grabbing women by the genitals and, more recently, about immigrants “poisoning the blood” of America.

“Course, nobody likes to hear people speak so disrespectfully,” Mrs Cameron says. “But I also liked what he did and where our country was when he was in office.”

The momentum in the chasing pack is with Ms Haley, thanks to a strong performance in recent debates and a laser focus on foreign policy, including unwavering support for Ukraine and Israel.

But many of the would-be Haley voters I speak to like her because they believe she presents a more moderate alternative to Mr Trump.

Polls show that if she was selected as the Republican nominee, she would likely prevail over President Biden in a general election, as things stand.

“I think she’s probably got the best chance of winning against Biden from what the polls say,” Tyler Sparks, who I also meet on a residential street in Urbandale, says. “Maybe we can kind of close the gap between both sides of the parties and actually make the country better, rather than just spinning our wheels, ploughing snow.”

Ms Haley has made some notable missteps on the campaign trail in the last few weeks, including mistaking the name of one of Iowa’s most celebrated basketball stars, not a sin easily forgiven here.

Even with the polls showing a commanding lead, Team Trump is managing expectations.

“Don’t go raising the bar,” Mr Trump’s long-standing advisor Jason Miller, tells me,

“I’m happy with the win. A win is a win and we’ll be comfortable with that.” Mr Miller knows a thumbs up in Iowa is disproportionately important.

If a candidate does well here, momentum can carry them to victory in other states.

The question is – whose supporters and how many of them – will brave the deep freeze to reach the ballot box.

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Putin wasn’t at the White House, but his influence was – the moments which reveal his hold over Trump

Published

7 hours ago

August 19, 2025

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Putin wasn't at the White House, but his influence was - the moments which reveal his hold over Trump

Vladimir Putin wasn’t at the White House but his influence clearly was. At times, it dominated the room.

There were three key moments that revealed the Russian president‘s current hold over Donald Trump.

The first was in the Oval Office. Sitting alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US president told reporters: “I don’t think you need a ceasefire.”

Ukraine talks latest: Zelenskyy ‘ready to meet’ Putin after Trump summit

It was a stunning illustration of Mr Trump’s about-face in his approach to peace. For the past six months, a ceasefire has been his priority, but after meeting Mr Putin in Alaska, suddenly it’s not.

Confirmation that he now views the war through Moscow’s eyes.

The second was the format itself, with Mr Trump reverting to his favoured ask-what-you-like open-ended Q&A.

In Alaska, Mr Putin wasn’t made to take any questions – most likely, because he didn’t want to. But here, Mr Zelenskyy didn’t have a choice. He was subjected to a barrage of them to see if he’d learnt his lesson from last time.

It was a further demonstration of the special status Mr Trump seems to afford to Mr Putin.

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The third was their phone call. Initially, President Trump said he’d speak to the Kremlin leader after his meeting with European leaders. But it turned out to be during it.

A face-to-face meeting with seven leaders was interrupted for a phone call with one – as if Mr Trump had to check first with Mr Putin, before continuing his discussions.

We still don’t know the full details of the peace proposal that’s being drawn up, but all this strongly suggests that it’s one sketched out by Russia. The White House is providing the paper, but the Kremlin is holding the pen.

For Moscow, the aim now is to keep Mr Trump on their path to peace, which is settlement first, ceasefire later.

It believes that’s the best way of securing its goals, because it has more leverage so long as the fighting continues.

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But Mr Putin will be wary that Mr Trump is pliable and can easily change his mind, depending on the last person he spoke to.

So to ensure that his sympathies aren’t swayed, and its red lines remain intact, Russia will be straining to keep its voice heard.

On Monday, for example, the Russian foreign ministry was quick to condemn recent comments from the UK government that it would be ready to send troops to help enforce any ceasefire.

It described the idea as “provocative” and “predatory”.

Moscow is trying to drown out European concerns by portraying itself as the party that wants peace the most, and Kyiv (and Europe) as the obstacle.

But while Mr Zelenskyy has agreed to a trilateral meeting, the Kremlin has not. After the phone call between Mr Putin and Mr Trump, it said the leaders discussed “raising the level of representatives” in the talks between Russia and Ukraine. No confirmation to what level.

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Trump brokers Putin and Zelenskyy meeting

Published

7 hours ago

August 19, 2025

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Trump brokers Putin and Zelenskyy meeting

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Donald Trump wants to set up a face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. How would that work? And would it accelerate peace in Ukraine?

Zelenskyy and other European leaders made their way to Washington DC. What was their goal? To make sure Trump is still on their side – and to make sure he’s not got too close to Putin and his plans to annex parts of Ukraine after the pair met in Alaska.

How much of a turning point was the White House summit in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

You can also watch all episodes – including the interview with Tim – on our YouTube channel.

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We are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago

Published

9 hours ago

August 19, 2025

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It’s always wise to let the dust settle before reaching conclusions with this presidency.

But on the face of it we are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago.

The consensus that was held back then was that Vladimir Putin would only relent under maximum pressure. He does not want slivers of territory. He wants the whole of Ukraine extinguished and absorbed into his greater Russia.

Ukraine talks latest: Trump sets up Zelenskyy-Putin meeting

To stop him, allies agreed an immediate ceasefire was necessary, along with much more painful pressure, namely sanctions hitting his oil industry. Europeans and Republicans in Congress agree on that.

Then Alaska and Donald Trump’s U-turn. No ceasefire and no more severe sanctions. So less pressure.

Yesterday’s reality TV diplomatic circus in Washington has not shifted him on that stance, so he stays it seems now aligned with Mr Putin on those crucial points.

Making matters worse for Ukraine, allies seem to be accepting it will have to give up land taken by force.

They sweeten the pill by saying of course only Ukraine can decide whether or not to cede territory, but there is now enormous pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to do so.

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In return there is nebulous and vague talk of security guarantees. European leaders are seizing on the fact Mr Trump did not rule out American troops being involved and hinted at US support for post-war security arrangements.

But that is little consolation for Ukrainians. They point out this president changes his mind as often as his socks and goes back on commitments, even those enshrined in international treaties.

The best that can be said for the White House meeting is it sets up more such meetings.

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Much of yesterday’s events were focused on stroking President Trump’s ego. Many here in Kyiv would prefer he was reminded of a few hard facts about this war. Mr Putin cannot be trusted. Mr Putin wants the end of Ukraine. Mr Putin will only relent under maximum pressure.

Protracted international diplomacy may suit Mr Trump’s craving for attention, but they fear it will only take us further away from peace.