It might be nine months away – but the race to the US presidential election has well and truly begun.
The first step in deciding which candidate will get their party’s nomination begins in Iowa on Monday evening.
Since 1972, the midwestern state has been the first to hold its caucus – which has routinely acted as a litmus test for how candidates will fare later along the campaign trail.
But with the Democrats not voting at their Iowa event this year – and Donald Trump’s multiple brushes with the law, this year’s proceedings may not be straightforward.
Here we look at what happens in Iowa, what a caucus is, and whether the winners will be the ones to watch.
What is a caucus – and how does it work?
The road to a US presidential election is long, beginning almost exactly a year before the incumbent is inaugurated with a star-studded ceremony at the White House.
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It begins with primaries and caucuses – two ways Democrats and Republicans begin the process of nominating a candidate.
The vast majority of states hold primaries, but Iowa and some other, traditionally Republican states opt for caucuses instead.
While primaries are like mini-elections, whereby party members can cast their vote at any point throughout the day, or sometimes by post, caucuses must be attended in person.
Primaries are run by the state whereas caucuses are organised by the parties themselves.
Caucuses take place at precinct, district, and state level in places such as schools, churches, and community centres.
Image: Democrat caucus in Iowa, February 2020
Those who attend listen to speeches made on behalf of each potential candidate by their campaign representatives. Caucus-goers then vote for their preferred candidate and these are tallied in a matter of hours.
Primaries and caucuses can be open or closed, with the former allowing anyone to take part and the latter restricted to party-registered voters.
The outcome of the caucus or primary determines how many delegates each candidate gets to represent them at the party’s national convention in the summer.
At the convention, the candidate with the most delegates becomes the presidential nominee, but if there is no clear winner at primary or caucus level, the delegates vote again at the convention.
Image: Republicans at the Iowa caucus in February 2020
Why does Iowa go first?
Iowa has long been a traditionally Republican state, with its current governor, House representatives and senators all belonging to the GOP.
But from the 1950s, Democrats have had more of a presence there.
With the increasing influence of trade unions came calls for the state’s cities to get better political representation, more in line with rural areas.
Image: The Democratic National Convention centre in Chicago, August 1968. Pic: AP
Image: Anti-war protesters outside the DNC in Chicago, 1968. Pic: AP
Then after the Democratic National Convention of 1968, where protests over the Vietnam War resulted in a protester’s death and hundreds of injuries, Democrats in Iowa demanded reform of the state caucus system – to move power away from party bosses and more into the hands of grassroots activists.
This saw separate conventions created at state and district level, which elongated the caucus process and meant the whole thing had to start earlier.
As such, since 1972 Iowa has been what is commonly referred to as “first in the nation”.
Why has it become so important?
Iowa’s “first in the nation” status means it often acts as an initial performance indicator for nominee candidates.
“The results in Iowa sends a signal to the rest of the country on the tenor of each of the candidates and whether they really will have the chance of proceeding on,” Jim McCormick, emeritus professor of American politics and US foreign policy at Iowa State University, tells Sky News.
This was capitalised on in its first year, when South Dakota’s senator George McGovern realised Iowa would be first and made a particular effort there – with him going on to win the nomination for the Democrats.
Ahead of the next election in 1976, Jimmy Carter’s campaign team honed in on Iowa, which gained nationwide media coverage and ultimately helped propel him to the White House.
Image: Jimmy Carter in Iowa, 1976. Pic: AP
From then on, every US president since Carter, aside from Bill Clinton in 1992 and Joe Biden in 2020, has finished within the top three of the Iowa caucus.
Barack Obama often credits his win there with his election to the presidency in 2008.
Image: Barack Obama meets supporters in Iowa ahead of the caucus in 2008
But historically, coming first in the caucus has not guaranteed winning the party nomination, particularly among Republicans.
As such, there have only been three times when the winner of the Iowa caucus has gone on to win the Republican nomination.
Iowa has proportionately more white and elderly people than many other states, so despite efforts made by campaign teams, the result there can still turn out to be misleading.
Poor weather in January and the timing of the event can also lead to low turnout, with only 30% of registered Republicans taking part in 2016, the last time the race was competitive.
But Prof McCormick argues: “International observers have a tendency to look to New York, Washington DC, and Los Angeles to see what the US is all about.
“But Iowa is so-called ‘flyover country’, which is more reflective of the values of middle America. So even with its demography and relatively small ethnic minorities, the message that comes out of Iowa is consequential.”
To that effect, the Iowa caucus has consistently succeeded in getting weaker candidates who perform badly to pull out of the overall race.
Image: Votes counted for Democratic candidates at the Iowa caucus 2020
What’s happening this year?
Although both parties are holding their Iowa caucuses on Monday, only the Republican one is important this year.
In 2020, the Iowa Democratic caucus was plagued with technical issues, mainly around a new app, and failed to produce a clear winner.
The result had to be recanvassed and the series of blunders resulted in the resignation of state party chairman Troy Price.
Consequently, this year’s Democratic caucus will not include a nominee ballot. This will happen via a postal vote beginning on 12 January and ending on 5 March instead.
Joe Biden is largely seen as uncontested, being so far ahead of the other major candidates, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, in the polls.
But Republicans will be voting on their preferred candidate at 7pm, with only registered party members and those aged 18 or over come election day allowed to take part at one of 1,700 local precincts.
As has been the case since the 1980s, the ballot will be carried out in secret.
Conditions are expected to be -19C (-2F) in the state on Monday, likely preventing many of its 600,000 registered Republicans from getting to the event, particularly those in rural areas.
Who’s in the running and what about Trump?
Despite multiple ongoing legal fights, Donald Trump is still dominating the polls.
While Ron DeSantis was long tipped to be his main competitor, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has now surpassed the Florida governor in polling.
Image: Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis take part in a debate in Iowa
According to Prof McCormick, Mr Trump’s performance in Iowa is likely to determine whether either of the other two stand a chance of beating him to the nomination stage.
“Given that Trump has a very large lead, this is going to be an important signal to other states about whether there really is a chance of forestalling his getting the nomination,” he says.
While Ms Haley appears to have outperformed Mr DeSantis in the Iowa debates, her success in the caucus will depend on how well-organised her campaign team has been across the state, he adds.
“She’s been very well organised in New Hampshire (the next primary after Iowa), but in Iowa she’s been concentrating on people in the suburbs, because they are the people who will be able to get to the caucuses.
“DeSantis keeps saying he’s visited all 99 counties in Iowa – so he’s booking everything on it.
“But a lot of his support will come from rural counties, evangelical Christians, and older voters, who may not be able to get to the caucus sites in -26C.”
Mr DeSantis has also suffered from high staff turnover in his campaign team, weaker debate performances than Ms Haley, and having some views that are similar to Mr Trump’s, Prof McCormick adds.
These factors combined mean there is a greater risk of a poor result and him being forced to bow out.
Mr Trump, by contrast, skipped the debates, and took part in a Fox News town hall event instead.
As well as the economy, issues caucus-goers will be focused on include state laws recently passed on transgender and abortion rights, along with agricultural exports.
Image: Donald Trump at a Fox News town hall in Iowa, 10 January. Pic: AP
So is this year’s Iowa caucus really ‘one to watch’?
The short answer is yes.
Prof McCormick stresses: “If Trump comes out with a very large lead in Iowa, that should be taken as a very good indicator he’ll get the nomination.
“But if Trump doesn’t get at least 50% of the vote – and either Haley or DeSantis come up close, even within a 10-point margin, that really raises a question about his ‘slam dunk’ ability to dominate the process – and we could be looking at a different story.”
But beyond the nomination, Trump’s future is still uncertain, he adds.
“The Biden campaign has indicated they’ll be focused on Trump’s persona rather than a lot of the national issues. So he’ll be handicapped even if he gets the nomination.”
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While efforts by states such as Georgia and Maine to bar him from running are considered likely to be struck out by the Supreme Court, it is still unclear whether the lawsuits against him would prevent him from returning to the White House.
But if an Iowa win does see him secure the nomination, his supporter base is still very large, which means Monday’s caucus could end up having consequences far beyond the US.
Prof McCormick says: “Every time he’s been indicted, his popularity has gone up.
“So if Trump succeeds in getting voter turnout in Iowa that suggests we could see a foreign policy at odds with what Biden has been pursuing, which, given his attitudes towards NATO, Ukraine, and Russia, would be a huge concern for a lot of people.”
Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he “will not back down” from Russia’s goals in Ukraine during a phone call today, the Kremlin has said.
The Russian president spoke to his US counterpart for almost an hour, and Mr Trump “again raised the issue of an early end to military action” in Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters.
In response, Mr Putin said “Russia will not back down” from its aims there, which include “the elimination of the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs,” Mr Ushakov said.
The phrase “root causes” is shorthand for Moscow’s argument that it was compelled to invade Ukraine in order to prevent the country from joining NATO.
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Trump and Putin’s latest call on Ukraine
Ukraine and its European allies say this is a pretext to justify what they call an imperial-style war, but Mr Trump has previously shown sympathy with Russia.
At the same time, Mr Putin told the US president that Russia is ready to continue negotiating, the aide said.
The Russian president said any prospective peace deal must see Ukraine give up its NATO bid and recognise his country’s territorial gains.
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Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seen with Mr Trump in June, is pushing for Ukraine to join NATO. Pic: Reuters
He also briefed Mr Trump on agreements made last month, which saw Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners of war and dead soldiers.
Specific dates for the third round of peace talks in Istanbul were not discussed – nor was the US decision to halt some shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine.
Mr Putin and Mr Trump’s call came after the Pentagon confirmed some weapons due to be sent to Ukraine have been held as it reviews military stockpiles.
The paused shipments include air defence missiles and precision-guided artillery, two people familiar with the situation have said.
Donald Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ has been passed by the US congress, sending it to the president to sign into law.
The controversial tax breaks and spending cuts package cleared its final hurdle as the Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly approved the bill with a 218-214 vote.
The bill delivers tax breaks Mr Trump promised in his 2024 election campaign, cuts health and food safety programmes, and zeroes out dozens of green energy incentives.
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), it will lower tax revenues by $4.5trn over 10 years and add $3.4trn to the US’s $36.2trn debt.
But despite concerns over the 869-page bill’s price tag – and its hit to healthcare programmes – Republicans largely lined up in support, with just two rebelling on the vote.
Image: House Speaker Mike Johnson is congratulated following the vote. Pic: Reuters
Every Democrat in Congress voted against the bill, blasting it as a giveaway to the wealthy that will leave millions of Americans uninsured.
House Speaker Mike Johnson made the Republicans’ closing argument for the bill, telling Congress: “For everyday Americans, this means real, positive change that they can feel.”
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Earlier, the House’s Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries gave a record-breaking eight-hour and 44-minute speech against it.
“The focus of this bill, the justification for all of the cuts that will hurt everyday Americans, is to provide massive tax breaks for billionaires,” he said.
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The bill’s spending cuts largely target Medicaid, the health programme that covers 71 million Americans on low incomes.
It will tighten enrolment standards, institute a work requirement and clamp down on a funding mechanism used by states to boost federal payments.
The changes could leave nearly 12 million people without health insurance, according to the CBO.
On the other side of the ledger, it will stave off tax increases that were due to hit most Americans at the end of the year, when tax cuts from President Trump’s first term were due to expire.
It also sets up new tax breaks for overtime pay, seniors and tipped income.
Sean “Diddy” Combs has been found guilty of transportation for prostitution following a landmark trial in New York – but cleared of more serious charges of sex trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.
The hip-hop mogul was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura, and other crimes including kidnapping, arson and blackmail.
Jurors decided not all the allegations were proven – but Combs still faces several years in prison after being convicted of transporting people across the US, including Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane”, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.
However, with the not guilty verdict on three other more serious charges – racketeering conspiracy and two of sex trafficking – the 55-year-old has avoided a maximum possible sentence of life behind bars.
Despite a request by his defence team, he was denied bail ahead of sentencing – which has been scheduled for Friday 3 October.
Image: Combs appeared upbeat in court as the verdict was announced. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
Marc Agnifilo, part of Diddy’s defence team, described the ruling as “a victory of all victories”.
Outside the courthouse, he said the jury “got the situation right, or certainly right enough”.
Another of his lawyers, Nicole Westmoreland, said: “He actually battled for his freedom, for his innocence, and he did it.
“And, you know, a lot of times, people are too afraid to do it. Today is a major win to show what the system can do.”
The mixed result from the jury came not long into their third day of deliberations. In the courtroom in Manhattan, there were cheers from Combs’s family – and the rapper himself held his hands up in a prayer motion, looking at the jury, and hugged his defence lawyer Teny Geragos.
His mood seemed very different to just a day earlier – when he learned the jury had reached a verdict on four of the five charges, but were split on the racketeering charge.
After deliberating for longer on Wednesday, they came to a unanimous decision.
As the verdict sunk in, Combs appeared overwhelmed, kneeling at his chair and bowing his head in prayer once again.
“I’ll be home soon,” he said as he faced his family members. “I love you, Mum.”
Image: Combs later seemed to become overwhelmed with relief. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
The application for bail
Combs’s defence team argued that as he had been cleared of the most serious charges, he should be bailed ahead of sentencing.
His lawyer Marc Agnifilo said he had been a model prisoner and added: “He’s not going to flee. He’s been given his life back.”
But prosecutor Maurene Comey argued Combs had a history of violence, which Judge Arub Subramanian agreed with. “At trial, the defence conceded the defendant’s violence in his personal relationships,” he said.
After being denied bail, Combs attempted get the judge’s attention – but after consulting with Mr Agnifilo, he did not speak.
Image: Casandra ‘Cassie’ was heavily pregnant when she gave evidence at the start of the trial. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
Cassie ‘paved the way’
Reacting to the verdict, Cassie’s lawyer Douglas H Wigdor said that although jurors did not find Combs guilty of sex-trafficking Cassie, she had “paved the way” for the other guilty verdicts.
“By coming forward with her experience, Cassie has left an indelible mark on both the entertainment industry and the fight for justice,” he said.
“We must repeat – with no reservation – that we believe and support our client, who showed exemplary courage throughout this trial.”
Cassie, who testified heavily pregnant just three weeks before giving birth, displayed “unquestionable strength”, he added, and “brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit”.
Videos of “freak off” sex sessions with male escorts were shown to jurors only during the seven-week trial, with the footage kept private from members of the public and media in court.
Former employees, along with escorts, hotel staff and police officers were among those to give evidence.
Cassie and Jane, who used a pseudonym, also testified. They told the court they were coerced into drug-fuelled “freak offs” – which were also referred to as “hotel nights” or “wild king nights” – with male escorts, and abused throughout their relationships.
Combs’s defence team presented a very different picture to show that sexual acts, including freak offs, were consensual.
They conceded the music star could be violent, had a bad temper and used drugs. He also had multiple relationships at the same time. But crucially, they said, while he was “not proud” of some of his behaviour, none of it made him guilty of the charges against him.
After hearing evidence of flights and travel for escorts and Cassie and Jane, paid for by Combs, as well as hotel bookings across the US and the Caribbean, jurors found him guilty of the transportation to engage in prostitution charges. However, they did not find that the allegations against the rapper amounted to sex trafficking or racketeering.
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CCTV footage shows Diddy ‘attacking’ Cassie in hotel
The Cassie hotel tape
Combs, known variously as Puff Daddy, P Diddy, and Diddy over the years, was once one of the most influential figures in hip-hop – famous as a producer, founder of Bad Boy Records and manager of the late Notorious BIG in the 1990s, as well as a rapper in his own right.
As an artist, he won three Grammys during his career, and had hits including I’ll Be Missing You, Come With Me, and Bad Boy For Life.
In September 2023, he received the “global icon” award from MTV and was given the key to New York City at a ceremony in Times Square, just a few miles away from the streets in Harlem where he spent his first years.
Allegations first came to prominence in November 2023, when Cassie filed a bombshell lawsuit accusing him of coercing her into unwanted sex sessions, as well as blackmail and several incidences of violence.
The suit was settled in 24 hours – for $20m, it emerged during the trial – but months later CNN aired hotel security footageshowing Combs punching and kicking Cassie and throwing her to the floor in 2016.
He apologised after the video aired, saying: “I was disgusted when I did it.”
Footage from the hotel incident was shown during the trial.
Following the verdict, the rapper now awaits sentencing. He also still faces several civil lawsuits, most of which were filed in the wake of his arrest in September 2024.