Connect with us

Published

on

It might be nine months away – but the race to the US presidential election has well and truly begun.

The first step in deciding which candidate will get their party’s nomination begins in Iowa on Monday evening.

Since 1972, the midwestern state has been the first to hold its caucus – which has routinely acted as a litmus test for how candidates will fare later along the campaign trail.

But with the Democrats not voting at their Iowa event this year – and Donald Trump’s multiple brushes with the law, this year’s proceedings may not be straightforward.

Here we look at what happens in Iowa, what a caucus is, and whether the winners will be the ones to watch.

What is a caucus – and how does it work?

The road to a US presidential election is long, beginning almost exactly a year before the incumbent is inaugurated with a star-studded ceremony at the White House.

More on Donald Trump

It begins with primaries and caucuses – two ways Democrats and Republicans begin the process of nominating a candidate.

Iowa explainer graphic

The vast majority of states hold primaries, but Iowa and some other, traditionally Republican states opt for caucuses instead.

Read more:
Who’s running to be the next US president?
All you need to know about Trump’s legal cases

Who is Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy

While primaries are like mini-elections, whereby party members can cast their vote at any point throughout the day, or sometimes by post, caucuses must be attended in person.

Primaries are run by the state whereas caucuses are organised by the parties themselves.

Caucuses take place at precinct, district, and state level in places such as schools, churches, and community centres.

Democrat caucus in Iowa, February 2020
Image:
Democrat caucus in Iowa, February 2020

Those who attend listen to speeches made on behalf of each potential candidate by their campaign representatives. Caucus-goers then vote for their preferred candidate and these are tallied in a matter of hours.

Primaries and caucuses can be open or closed, with the former allowing anyone to take part and the latter restricted to party-registered voters.

The outcome of the caucus or primary determines how many delegates each candidate gets to represent them at the party’s national convention in the summer.

At the convention, the candidate with the most delegates becomes the presidential nominee, but if there is no clear winner at primary or caucus level, the delegates vote again at the convention.

Republicans at the Iowa caucus in February 2020
Image:
Republicans at the Iowa caucus in February 2020

Why does Iowa go first?

Iowa has long been a traditionally Republican state, with its current governor, House representatives and senators all belonging to the GOP.

But from the 1950s, Democrats have had more of a presence there.

With the increasing influence of trade unions came calls for the state’s cities to get better political representation, more in line with rural areas.

The Democratic National Convention centre in Chicago, August 1968. Pic: AP
Image:
The Democratic National Convention centre in Chicago, August 1968. Pic: AP

Anti-war protesters outside the DNC in Chicago, 1968. Pic AP
Image:
Anti-war protesters outside the DNC in Chicago, 1968. Pic: AP

Then after the Democratic National Convention of 1968, where protests over the Vietnam War resulted in a protester’s death and hundreds of injuries, Democrats in Iowa demanded reform of the state caucus system – to move power away from party bosses and more into the hands of grassroots activists.

This saw separate conventions created at state and district level, which elongated the caucus process and meant the whole thing had to start earlier.

As such, since 1972 Iowa has been what is commonly referred to as “first in the nation”.

Why has it become so important?

Iowa’s “first in the nation” status means it often acts as an initial performance indicator for nominee candidates.

“The results in Iowa sends a signal to the rest of the country on the tenor of each of the candidates and whether they really will have the chance of proceeding on,” Jim McCormick, emeritus professor of American politics and US foreign policy at Iowa State University, tells Sky News.

This was capitalised on in its first year, when South Dakota’s senator George McGovern realised Iowa would be first and made a particular effort there – with him going on to win the nomination for the Democrats.

Ahead of the next election in 1976, Jimmy Carter’s campaign team honed in on Iowa, which gained nationwide media coverage and ultimately helped propel him to the White House.

Jimmy Carter in Iowa, 1976. Pic: AP
Image:
Jimmy Carter in Iowa, 1976. Pic: AP

From then on, every US president since Carter, aside from Bill Clinton in 1992 and Joe Biden in 2020, has finished within the top three of the Iowa caucus.

Barack Obama often credits his win there with his election to the presidency in 2008.

Barack Obama meets supporters in Iowa ahead of the caucus in 2008
Image:
Barack Obama meets supporters in Iowa ahead of the caucus in 2008

But historically, coming first in the caucus has not guaranteed winning the party nomination, particularly among Republicans.

As such, there have only been three times when the winner of the Iowa caucus has gone on to win the Republican nomination.

Iowa has proportionately more white and elderly people than many other states, so despite efforts made by campaign teams, the result there can still turn out to be misleading.

Poor weather in January and the timing of the event can also lead to low turnout, with only 30% of registered Republicans taking part in 2016, the last time the race was competitive.

But Prof McCormick argues: “International observers have a tendency to look to New York, Washington DC, and Los Angeles to see what the US is all about.

“But Iowa is so-called ‘flyover country’, which is more reflective of the values of middle America. So even with its demography and relatively small ethnic minorities, the message that comes out of Iowa is consequential.”

To that effect, the Iowa caucus has consistently succeeded in getting weaker candidates who perform badly to pull out of the overall race.

Votes counted for Democratic candidates at the Iowa caucus 2020
Image:
Votes counted for Democratic candidates at the Iowa caucus 2020

What’s happening this year?

Although both parties are holding their Iowa caucuses on Monday, only the Republican one is important this year.

In 2020, the Iowa Democratic caucus was plagued with technical issues, mainly around a new app, and failed to produce a clear winner.

The result had to be recanvassed and the series of blunders resulted in the resignation of state party chairman Troy Price.

Consequently, this year’s Democratic caucus will not include a nominee ballot. This will happen via a postal vote beginning on 12 January and ending on 5 March instead.

Joe Biden is largely seen as uncontested, being so far ahead of the other major candidates, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, in the polls.

But Republicans will be voting on their preferred candidate at 7pm, with only registered party members and those aged 18 or over come election day allowed to take part at one of 1,700 local precincts.

As has been the case since the 1980s, the ballot will be carried out in secret.

Conditions are expected to be -19C (-2F) in the state on Monday, likely preventing many of its 600,000 registered Republicans from getting to the event, particularly those in rural areas.

Who’s in the running and what about Trump?

Despite multiple ongoing legal fights, Donald Trump is still dominating the polls.

While Ron DeSantis was long tipped to be his main competitor, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has now surpassed the Florida governor in polling.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, right and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, left, pointing at each other during the CNN Republican presidential debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
Image:
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis take part in a debate in Iowa

According to Prof McCormick, Mr Trump’s performance in Iowa is likely to determine whether either of the other two stand a chance of beating him to the nomination stage.

“Given that Trump has a very large lead, this is going to be an important signal to other states about whether there really is a chance of forestalling his getting the nomination,” he says.

While Ms Haley appears to have outperformed Mr DeSantis in the Iowa debates, her success in the caucus will depend on how well-organised her campaign team has been across the state, he adds.

“She’s been very well organised in New Hampshire (the next primary after Iowa), but in Iowa she’s been concentrating on people in the suburbs, because they are the people who will be able to get to the caucuses.

“DeSantis keeps saying he’s visited all 99 counties in Iowa – so he’s booking everything on it.

“But a lot of his support will come from rural counties, evangelical Christians, and older voters, who may not be able to get to the caucus sites in -26C.”

Mr DeSantis has also suffered from high staff turnover in his campaign team, weaker debate performances than Ms Haley, and having some views that are similar to Mr Trump’s, Prof McCormick adds.

These factors combined mean there is a greater risk of a poor result and him being forced to bow out.

Mr Trump, by contrast, skipped the debates, and took part in a Fox News town hall event instead.

As well as the economy, issues caucus-goers will be focused on include state laws recently passed on transgender and abortion rights, along with agricultural exports.

Donald Trump at a Fox News town hall in Iowa, 10 January. Pic: AP
Image:
Donald Trump at a Fox News town hall in Iowa, 10 January. Pic: AP

So is this year’s Iowa caucus really ‘one to watch’?

The short answer is yes.

Prof McCormick stresses: “If Trump comes out with a very large lead in Iowa, that should be taken as a very good indicator he’ll get the nomination.

“But if Trump doesn’t get at least 50% of the vote – and either Haley or DeSantis come up close, even within a 10-point margin, that really raises a question about his ‘slam dunk’ ability to dominate the process – and we could be looking at a different story.”

But beyond the nomination, Trump’s future is still uncertain, he adds.

“The Biden campaign has indicated they’ll be focused on Trump’s persona rather than a lot of the national issues. So he’ll be handicapped even if he gets the nomination.”

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

While efforts by states such as Georgia and Maine to bar him from running are considered likely to be struck out by the Supreme Court, it is still unclear whether the lawsuits against him would prevent him from returning to the White House.

But if an Iowa win does see him secure the nomination, his supporter base is still very large, which means Monday’s caucus could end up having consequences far beyond the US.

Prof McCormick says: “Every time he’s been indicted, his popularity has gone up.

“So if Trump succeeds in getting voter turnout in Iowa that suggests we could see a foreign policy at odds with what Biden has been pursuing, which, given his attitudes towards NATO, Ukraine, and Russia, would be a huge concern for a lot of people.”

Continue Reading

US

Trump’s tariffs are about something more than economics: power

Published

on

By

Trump's tariffs are about something more than economics: power

Tanking stock markets, collapsing world orders, devastating trade wars; economists with their hair ablaze are scrambling to keep up.

But as we try to make sense of Donald Trumps’s tariff tsunami, economic theory only goes so far. In the end this surely is about something more primal.

Power.

Understanding that may be crucial to how the world responds.

Yes, economics helps explain the impact. The world’s economy has after all shifted on its axis, the way it’s been run for decades turned on its head.

Instead of driving world trade, America is creating a trade war. We will all feel the impact.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

PM will ‘fight’ for deal with US

Donald Trump says he is settling scores, righting wrongs. America has been raped, looted and pillaged by the world trading system.

More from US

But don’t be distracted by the hyperbole – and if you think this is about economics alone, you may be missing the point.

Above all, tariffs give Donald Trump power. They strike fear into allies and enemies, from governments to corporations.

This is a president who runs his presidency like a medieval emperor or mafia don.

It is one reason why since his election we have seen what one statesman called a conga line of sycophants make their way to the White House, from world leaders to titans of industry.

The conga line will grow longer as they now redouble their efforts hoping to special treatment from Trump’s tariffs. Sir Keir Starmer among them.

President Trump’s using similar tactics at home, deploying presidential power to extract concessions and deter dissent in corporate America, academia and the US media. Those who offer favours are spared punishment.

His critics say he seeks a form power for the executive or presidential branch of government that the founding fathers deliberately sought to prevent.

Whether or not that is true, the same playbook of divide and rule through intimidation can now be applied internationally. Thanks to tariffs

Each country will seek exceptions but on Trump’s terms. Those who retaliate may meet escalation.

This is the unforgiving calculus for governments including our own plotting their next moves.

The temptation will be to give Trump whatever he wants to spare their economies, but there is a jeopardy that compounds the longer this goes on.

Read more:
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?
Trump hits island home only to penguins with 10% tariffs

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng gestures to Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves following a photo session at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. (Florence Lo/Pool Photo via AP)
Image:
Could America’s traditional allies turn to China? Pic: AP

Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister who coined the conga line comparison, put it this way: “Pretty much all the international leaders I have seen that have sucked up to Trump have been run over. The reality is if you suck up to bullies, whether it’s global affairs or in the playground, you just get more bullying.”

Trading partners may be able to mitigate the impact of these tariffs through negotiation, but that may only encourage this unorthodox president to demand ever more?

Ultimately the world will need a more reliable superpower than that.

In the hands of such a president, America cannot be counted on.

When it comes to security, stability and prosperity, allies will need to fend for themselves.

And they will need new friends. If Washington can’t be relied on, Beijing beckons.

America First will, more and more, mean America on its own.

Continue Reading

US

‘A genius actor’, ‘firecracker’, and ‘my friend’: Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

Published

on

By

'A genius actor', 'firecracker', and 'my friend': Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

Actors, directors and celebrity friends have paid tribute to Val Kilmer, after he died aged 65.

The California-born star of Top Gun, Batman and Heat died of pneumonia on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, his daughter Mercedes told the Associated Press.

She said Kilmer was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2014 but later recovered.

Tributes flooded in after reports broke of the actor’s death, with No Country For Old Men star Josh Brolin among the first to share their memories.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Watch: Val Kilmer in his most iconic roles

He wrote on Instagram: “See ya, pal. I’m going to miss you. You were a smart, challenging, brave, uber-creative firecracker. There’s not a lot left of those.

“I hope to see you up there in the heavens when I eventually get there. Until then, amazing memories, lovely thoughts.”

Kyle Maclachlan, who co-starred with Kilmer in the 1991 biopic The Doors, wrote on social media: “You’ll always be my Jim. See you on the other side my friend.”

More from Ents & Arts

Michael Mann, who directed Kilmer in 1995’s Heat, also paid tribute in a statement, saying: “I always marvelled at the range, the brilliant variability within the powerful current of Val’s possessing and expressing character.

“After so many years of Val battling disease and maintaining his spirit, this is tremendously sad news.”

preview image

Heat co-star Danny Trejo also called Kilmer “a great actor, a wonderful person, and a dear friend of mine” on Instagram.

Cher, who once dated the actor, said on X that “U Were Funny, crazy, pain in the ass, GREAT FRIEND… BRILLIANT as Mark Twain, BRAVE here during ur sickness”.

Lifelong friend and director of Twixt, Francis Ford Coppola said: “Val Kilmer was the most talented actor when in his High School, and that talent only grew greater throughout his life.

“He was a wonderful person to work with and a joy to know – I will always remember him.”

The Top Gun account on X also said it was remembering Kilmer, who starred as Iceman in both the 1986 original and 2022 sequel, and “whose indelible cinematic mark spanned genres and generations”.

Nicolas Cage added that “I always liked Val and am sad to hear of his passing”.

“I thought he was a genius actor,” he said. “I enjoyed working with him on Bad Lieutenant and I admired his commitment and sense of humor.

“He should have won the Oscar for The Doors.”

Continue Reading

US

Island home only to penguins hit by tariffs – and other things you may have missed on ‘Liberation Day’

Published

on

By

Island home only to penguins hit by tariffs - and other things you may have missed on 'Liberation Day'

No one expected penguins to bear the brunt of Liberation Day. 

But among the barrage of tariffs set out by Donald Trump, the US also took aim at uninhabited islands, talked up American beef and turned its nose up at plastic eggs.

Here is what you might have missed in the US leader’s expansive announcement.

Trump latest: Follow live updates

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What the numbers behind Trump’s tariffs really mean

Tiny territories hit with big tariffs

At first glance, newly imposed tariffs on countries such as China, the European Union, India and the UK stand out – ranging from 34% to 10% respectively.

But the president also imposed tariffs on dozens of tiny territories – some of which don’t even have human inhabitants.

One of those was the Heard and McDonald Islands, an external territory of Australia in the Antarctic that is inhabited only by penguins and seals.

All of Australia's external territories that have been hit with US tariffs
Image:
All of Australia’s external territories that have been hit with US tariffs

Despite having no human residents – or imports and exports – the island now faces a 10% tariff for any goods bound for the US.

According to export data from the World Bank, the US imported $1.4m (£1m) of mainly “machinery and electrical” products from Heard Island and McDonald Islands in 2022.

Australian territory Norfolk Island, a volcanic island 600 miles east of Queensland, was also hit with a hefty 29% tariff on exports to the US. That’s much higher than mainland Australia, which had a 10% tariff imposed.

The news was met with confusion by some of Norfolk Island’s 2,188 residents.

“Norfolk Island is a little dot in the world,” Richard Cottle, owner of a concrete-mixing business on the island, said on Thursday.

“We don’t export anything. It was just a mistake”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?

Although the island does ship a modest amount of Kentia palm seeds abroad, this is typically worth less than $1m (£760,000) a year, with the products mostly going to Europe.

According to US government data, America has recorded trade deficits with Norfolk Island for the past three years.

Other tiny nations and territories were also hit with 10% tariffs, including Tokelau, a dependent territory of New Zealand, with a population of around 1,600 people, and the Cocos Islands, another territory of Australia, with a population of around 600 people.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters he had no explanation for the tariffs, calling them “unexpected” and “a bit strange”.

A Southern Elephant Seal pup on the beach below the Baudissin Glacier on Heard Island.
Pic: VWPics/AP
Image:
We have a feeling the seals won’t welcome Trump for his next holiday to the Heard Island… Pic: AP

‘Our beef is beautiful, theirs is weak’

After announcing a 20% tariff against the European Union, Mr Trump’s secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick spoke to Fox News to try to explain what was behind the decision.

In a brief but bizarre rant, Mr Lutnick spoke about the bloc’s ban on imported chicken from the US.

“I mean European Union won’t take chicken from America,” he said.

“They will take lobsters from America… they hate our beef because our beef is beautiful and theirs is weak.”

The EU has a ban on chicken washed in chlorine – a practice that is approved by the United States Department of Agriculture.

Although US beef is not completely prohibited in Europe, any beef that has been treated with artificial growth hormones – which is legal in the US and common among producers – is banned by the EU.

Why was Russia exempt?

Russia was not on Mr Trump’s tariff list, despite his threat to introduce some on Russian oil imports last week.

The US president made the threat after telling NBC’s Kirsten Welker he was “very angry” and “pissed off” after Vladimir Putin criticised the credibility of Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as fragile peace negotiations are ongoing.

Read more:
World leaders react to Trump’s tariff announcement
Do Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff numbers add up?

Mr Trump said that if Russia was unable to make a deal on “stopping bloodshed in Ukraine” – and Mr Trump felt that Moscow was to blame – then he would put secondary tariffs on “all oil coming out of Russia”.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil,” he said.

Axios reported that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the publication on Wednesday that Russia was left off the tariffs list because US sanctions already “preclude any meaningful trade”.

Russia ran a $2.5bn goods trade surplus with the US in 2024, according to the US Trade Representative’s office, falling from $35bn in 2021 as a result of sanctions put in place due to the war in Ukraine.

World’s poorest nations face highest tariffs

Many of Mr Trump’s tariffs have targeted the world’s poorest countries.

Lesotho in southern Africa, listed as the 22 poorest country in the world, has been slapped with the highest duty of 50%. It primarily exports diamonds and garments, with the US as one of the top five exporting destinations, Sky News’ US partner network NBC News reported.

The second-highest tariff went to Cambodia at 49%, even though the US is Cambodia’s largest single-country export destination.

Madagascar in east Africa, the world’s ninth poorest country, will face 47% reciprocal tariffs. It primarily exports vanilla, cloves, and garments, with the US among the top five countries it exports to, according to NBC.

‘Huge complexities’ for Northern Ireland and the Republic

Tanaiste Simon Harris speaks to media outside Government Buildings, Dublin. Picture date: Thursday April 3, 2025. PA Photo. See PA story IRISH Tariffs . Photo credit should read: Cillian Sherlock/PA Wire
Image:
Deputy premier Simon Harris said the difference in tariffs between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will cause complexities. Pic: Cillian Sherlock/PA Wire

Under the 10% tariff imposed on the UK, Northern Irish goods will also be covered at the same rate.

Whereas the Republic of Ireland will subject to a 20% tariffs – which Mr Trump imposed on the entirety of the EU.

Reacting to the announcement, Ireland deputy premier Simon Harris said the tariff difference would create “huge complexities” for products that need to be carried across the cross-border dimension during production.

He said the issues were similar to those at play during the Brexit debate around maintaining a frictionless land border on the island of Ireland.

Mr Harris said it was on the US to “outline their understanding” on how the 10% differential between Northern Ireland and Ireland will play out.

Trump defines groceries

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Trump says ‘groceries’ is a ‘beautiful term’

As has become common when delivering major addresses, the US president repeatedly deviated from his script.

At one point, he took time to define the word groceries: “It’s a bag with a lot of different things in it.”

He went on to describe the word as “old-fashioned” but “beautiful”.

‘Could you use plastic eggs?’

In another part of his wide-ranging speech, Mr Trump got onto the topic of eggs – the price of which reached an all-time high earlier this year in the US due to the outbreak of bird flu.

On Wednesday, Mr Trump confirmed that the annual White House tradition of rolling around 30,000 Easter eggs across the South Lawn is expected to proceed, and will use real eggs, despite pleas for plastic ones to be used instead.

“They were saying that for Easter ‘Please don’t use eggs. Could you use plastic eggs?’ I say, we don’t want to do that,” Mr Trump said.

He did not clarify who was telling him not to use real eggs.

Continue Reading

Trending