It might be nine months away – but the race to the US presidential election has well and truly begun.
The first step in deciding which candidate will get their party’s nomination begins in Iowa on Monday evening.
Since 1972, the midwestern state has been the first to hold its caucus – which has routinely acted as a litmus test for how candidates will fare later along the campaign trail.
But with the Democrats not voting at their Iowa event this year – and Donald Trump’s multiple brushes with the law, this year’s proceedings may not be straightforward.
Here we look at what happens in Iowa, what a caucus is, and whether the winners will be the ones to watch.
What is a caucus – and how does it work?
The road to a US presidential election is long, beginning almost exactly a year before the incumbent is inaugurated with a star-studded ceremony at the White House.
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It begins with primaries and caucuses – two ways Democrats and Republicans begin the process of nominating a candidate.
The vast majority of states hold primaries, but Iowa and some other, traditionally Republican states opt for caucuses instead.
While primaries are like mini-elections, whereby party members can cast their vote at any point throughout the day, or sometimes by post, caucuses must be attended in person.
Primaries are run by the state whereas caucuses are organised by the parties themselves.
Caucuses take place at precinct, district, and state level in places such as schools, churches, and community centres.
Image: Democrat caucus in Iowa, February 2020
Those who attend listen to speeches made on behalf of each potential candidate by their campaign representatives. Caucus-goers then vote for their preferred candidate and these are tallied in a matter of hours.
Primaries and caucuses can be open or closed, with the former allowing anyone to take part and the latter restricted to party-registered voters.
The outcome of the caucus or primary determines how many delegates each candidate gets to represent them at the party’s national convention in the summer.
At the convention, the candidate with the most delegates becomes the presidential nominee, but if there is no clear winner at primary or caucus level, the delegates vote again at the convention.
Image: Republicans at the Iowa caucus in February 2020
Why does Iowa go first?
Iowa has long been a traditionally Republican state, with its current governor, House representatives and senators all belonging to the GOP.
But from the 1950s, Democrats have had more of a presence there.
With the increasing influence of trade unions came calls for the state’s cities to get better political representation, more in line with rural areas.
Image: The Democratic National Convention centre in Chicago, August 1968. Pic: AP
Image: Anti-war protesters outside the DNC in Chicago, 1968. Pic: AP
Then after the Democratic National Convention of 1968, where protests over the Vietnam War resulted in a protester’s death and hundreds of injuries, Democrats in Iowa demanded reform of the state caucus system – to move power away from party bosses and more into the hands of grassroots activists.
This saw separate conventions created at state and district level, which elongated the caucus process and meant the whole thing had to start earlier.
As such, since 1972 Iowa has been what is commonly referred to as “first in the nation”.
Why has it become so important?
Iowa’s “first in the nation” status means it often acts as an initial performance indicator for nominee candidates.
“The results in Iowa sends a signal to the rest of the country on the tenor of each of the candidates and whether they really will have the chance of proceeding on,” Jim McCormick, emeritus professor of American politics and US foreign policy at Iowa State University, tells Sky News.
This was capitalised on in its first year, when South Dakota’s senator George McGovern realised Iowa would be first and made a particular effort there – with him going on to win the nomination for the Democrats.
Ahead of the next election in 1976, Jimmy Carter’s campaign team honed in on Iowa, which gained nationwide media coverage and ultimately helped propel him to the White House.
Image: Jimmy Carter in Iowa, 1976. Pic: AP
From then on, every US president since Carter, aside from Bill Clinton in 1992 and Joe Biden in 2020, has finished within the top three of the Iowa caucus.
Barack Obama often credits his win there with his election to the presidency in 2008.
Image: Barack Obama meets supporters in Iowa ahead of the caucus in 2008
But historically, coming first in the caucus has not guaranteed winning the party nomination, particularly among Republicans.
As such, there have only been three times when the winner of the Iowa caucus has gone on to win the Republican nomination.
Iowa has proportionately more white and elderly people than many other states, so despite efforts made by campaign teams, the result there can still turn out to be misleading.
Poor weather in January and the timing of the event can also lead to low turnout, with only 30% of registered Republicans taking part in 2016, the last time the race was competitive.
But Prof McCormick argues: “International observers have a tendency to look to New York, Washington DC, and Los Angeles to see what the US is all about.
“But Iowa is so-called ‘flyover country’, which is more reflective of the values of middle America. So even with its demography and relatively small ethnic minorities, the message that comes out of Iowa is consequential.”
To that effect, the Iowa caucus has consistently succeeded in getting weaker candidates who perform badly to pull out of the overall race.
Image: Votes counted for Democratic candidates at the Iowa caucus 2020
What’s happening this year?
Although both parties are holding their Iowa caucuses on Monday, only the Republican one is important this year.
In 2020, the Iowa Democratic caucus was plagued with technical issues, mainly around a new app, and failed to produce a clear winner.
The result had to be recanvassed and the series of blunders resulted in the resignation of state party chairman Troy Price.
Consequently, this year’s Democratic caucus will not include a nominee ballot. This will happen via a postal vote beginning on 12 January and ending on 5 March instead.
Joe Biden is largely seen as uncontested, being so far ahead of the other major candidates, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, in the polls.
But Republicans will be voting on their preferred candidate at 7pm, with only registered party members and those aged 18 or over come election day allowed to take part at one of 1,700 local precincts.
As has been the case since the 1980s, the ballot will be carried out in secret.
Conditions are expected to be -19C (-2F) in the state on Monday, likely preventing many of its 600,000 registered Republicans from getting to the event, particularly those in rural areas.
Who’s in the running and what about Trump?
Despite multiple ongoing legal fights, Donald Trump is still dominating the polls.
While Ron DeSantis was long tipped to be his main competitor, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has now surpassed the Florida governor in polling.
Image: Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis take part in a debate in Iowa
According to Prof McCormick, Mr Trump’s performance in Iowa is likely to determine whether either of the other two stand a chance of beating him to the nomination stage.
“Given that Trump has a very large lead, this is going to be an important signal to other states about whether there really is a chance of forestalling his getting the nomination,” he says.
While Ms Haley appears to have outperformed Mr DeSantis in the Iowa debates, her success in the caucus will depend on how well-organised her campaign team has been across the state, he adds.
“She’s been very well organised in New Hampshire (the next primary after Iowa), but in Iowa she’s been concentrating on people in the suburbs, because they are the people who will be able to get to the caucuses.
“DeSantis keeps saying he’s visited all 99 counties in Iowa – so he’s booking everything on it.
“But a lot of his support will come from rural counties, evangelical Christians, and older voters, who may not be able to get to the caucus sites in -26C.”
Mr DeSantis has also suffered from high staff turnover in his campaign team, weaker debate performances than Ms Haley, and having some views that are similar to Mr Trump’s, Prof McCormick adds.
These factors combined mean there is a greater risk of a poor result and him being forced to bow out.
Mr Trump, by contrast, skipped the debates, and took part in a Fox News town hall event instead.
As well as the economy, issues caucus-goers will be focused on include state laws recently passed on transgender and abortion rights, along with agricultural exports.
Image: Donald Trump at a Fox News town hall in Iowa, 10 January. Pic: AP
So is this year’s Iowa caucus really ‘one to watch’?
The short answer is yes.
Prof McCormick stresses: “If Trump comes out with a very large lead in Iowa, that should be taken as a very good indicator he’ll get the nomination.
“But if Trump doesn’t get at least 50% of the vote – and either Haley or DeSantis come up close, even within a 10-point margin, that really raises a question about his ‘slam dunk’ ability to dominate the process – and we could be looking at a different story.”
But beyond the nomination, Trump’s future is still uncertain, he adds.
“The Biden campaign has indicated they’ll be focused on Trump’s persona rather than a lot of the national issues. So he’ll be handicapped even if he gets the nomination.”
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While efforts by states such as Georgia and Maine to bar him from running are considered likely to be struck out by the Supreme Court, it is still unclear whether the lawsuits against him would prevent him from returning to the White House.
But if an Iowa win does see him secure the nomination, his supporter base is still very large, which means Monday’s caucus could end up having consequences far beyond the US.
Prof McCormick says: “Every time he’s been indicted, his popularity has gone up.
“So if Trump succeeds in getting voter turnout in Iowa that suggests we could see a foreign policy at odds with what Biden has been pursuing, which, given his attitudes towards NATO, Ukraine, and Russia, would be a huge concern for a lot of people.”
Donald Trump has said Russia and Ukraine are “very close to a deal” with “most of the major points agreed” – as he called for the two sides to meet.
Shortly after arriving in Rome for Pope Francis’s funeral, the US president said high-level officials should now meet to “finish [the deal] off”.
“A good day in talks and meetings with Russiaand Ukraine,” Mr Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
“They are very close to a deal, and the two sides should now meet, at very high levels, to ‘finish it off’.
“Most of the major points are agreed to. Stop the bloodshed, NOW. We will be wherever is necessary to help facilitate the END to this cruel and senseless war!”
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2:26
Ukraine-Russia peace talks explained
Throughout the week, the US president has criticised both Ukraine and Russia for failing to agree to a peace deal.
On Wednesday, he accused Mr Zelenskyy of harming talks on Truth Social, saying “the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE”.
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A day later, after nine people were killed in Kyiv after a Russian missile and drone strike, Mr Trump said: “Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”
The president and other officials have also threatened to withdraw from negotiations if no progress is made toward a deal.
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2:24
Putin-Witkoff meeting
The talks allowed Russia and the United States to “further bring their positions closer together” on “a number of international issues”, a Kremlin aide said.
Speaking earlier on the flight to Italy, Mr Trump said he hadn’t been fully briefed on Mr Witkoff and Mr Putin’s meeting – but added it was a “pretty good meeting”.
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Ukraine has repeatedly said it would not accept a deal conceding land or handing over sovereignty to Russia.
However, Mr Trump said in an interview with TIME magazine that “Crimea will stay with Russia,” describing the region as a place where Moscow has “had their submarines” and “the people speak largely Russian”.
“Zelenskyy understands that, and everybody understands that it’s been with them for a long time,” he added. “It’s been with them long before Trump came along.”
When asked on Friday about Mr Trump’s comments, Mr Zelenskyy did not want to comment but repeated that recognising occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian is a red line.
Luigi Mangione has pleaded not guilty to murdering a US healthcare chief executive – as prosecutors formally confirmed they plan to seek the death penalty for him.
The 26-year-old defendant appeared in a Manhattan federal court for an arraignment over the killing of Brian Thompson in New York last year.
Mangione has previously pleaded not guilty to a separate New York state indictment he faces over the murder of Mr Thompson, the boss of UnitedHealth’s insurance division.
While public officials condemned the killing, some Americans – and people elsewhere across the world – have lauded Mangione, saying he drew attention to steep US healthcare costs and the power of health insurers to refuse payment for some treatments.
Image: A pedestrian walks past a mural of Luigi Mangione in east London. Pic: Reuters
In justifying their decision to seek the death penalty, prosecutors wrote in their filing that Mangione “presents a future danger because he expressed an intent to target an entire industry, and rally political and social opposition to that industry, by engaging in an act of lethal violence”.
US attorney general Pam Bondi earlier this month announced that the Justice Department would seek the death penalty for Mangione.
Mangione’s lawyers did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Thursday.
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They have said Ms Bondi’s announcement on 1 April was “unapologetically political” and breached government protocols for death penalty decisions.
Image: UnitedHealthcare chief executive officer Brian Thompson. Pic: UnitedHealth Group/AP
If Mangione is convicted in the federal case, the jury would determine in a separate phase of the trial whether to recommend the death penalty.
Any such recommendation must be unanimous, and the judge would be required to impose it.
Mr Thompson was shot dead on 4 December outside a hotel in Midtown Manhattan, where an investor conference for the company was planned.
The killing sparked a five-day manhunt that captivated Americans.
Police officers in Altoona, Pennsylvania, found Mangione with a 9mm pistol and silencer, clothing that matched the apparel worn by Thompson’s gunman in surveillance footage, and a notebook describing an intent to “wack” an insurance company CEO, according to a court filing.
In October 2016, Kim Kardashian was robbed at gunpoint – with jewellery worth millions of dollars stolen during the audacious heist in Paris.
It was the biggest robbery of an individual in France for more than 20 years – and made front pages around the world.
Now, almost a decade on, the case is finally coming to court.
Why has it taken so long? Will Kardashian give evidence? And who exactly are the “grandpa robbers” facing trial?
Here’s everything you need to know.
Image: Kardashian at the Siran Presentation on the day of the robbery. Pic: Rex Features
What happened?
Two years after Kardashian and rapper Kanye West tied the knot in an ostentatious week-long celebration spanning Paris and Florence, the Kardashian-West clan were back in the French capital for Paris Fashion Week.
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Her then husband had returned to the US to pick up his Saint Pablo tour – but Kardashian, along with her sister Kourtney and various members of their entourage, remained in Paris, staying in an exclusive set of apartments so discreet they’ve been dubbed the No Address Hotel.
Nestled on Tronchet Street, just a stone’s throw from Place de l’Opéra, and close to the fashionable Avenue Montaigne, the Hotel de Pourtalès is popular with A-list stars staying in the French capital.
A stay in the Sky Penthouse, the suite occupied by Kardashian, will currently set you back about £13,000 a night.
Image: Kardashian was staying at the Hotel de Pourtales
On the evening of 3 October, after attending a fashion show with her sister, Kardashian remained in the apartment alone while the rest of her convoy – including her bodyguard Pascal Duvier – went out for the night.
At about 2.30am, three armed men wearing ski masks and dressed as police forced their way into the apartment block – and according to investigators, they threatened the concierge at gunpoint.
Two of them are alleged to have forced the concierge to lead them to Kardashian’s suite. He later told police they yelled at him: “Where’s the rapper’s wife?”
Kardashian said she had been “dozing” on her bed when the men then entered her room.
She has said she believes her social media posts provided the alleged robbers with “a window of opportunity”.
“I was Snapchatting that I was home, and that everyone was going out,” she said in the months after the incident.
The Keeping Up With The Kardashians star vividly described the attack in a police report, as reported in the French weekly paper Le Journal du Dimanche.
“They grabbed me and took me into the hallway. They tied me up with plastic cables and taped my hands, then they put tape over my mouth and my legs.”
She said they pointed a gun at her, asking specifically for her ring and also for money.
Image: Police guard the entrance to the Hotel de Pourtalès the day after the robbery
Kardashian says they carried her into the bathroom and put her in the bathtub. She said she was wearing only a bathrobe at the time.
She had initially thought the robbers “were terrorists who had come to kidnap me”, according to a French police report taken in New York three months after the robbery.
Kardashian told officers: “I thought I was going to die.”
According to police, the robbers – who left the room after grabbing their haul, escaped on bicycles with items estimated to be worth about $10m (£7.5m), including a $4m (£3m) 18.88-carat diamond engagement ring from West.
After they had left, Kardashian said she escaped her restraints and went to find help. After speaking to detectives, she immediately returned to the US on a private jet and later hired a completely new security team.
Image: Kardashian shows off her $4m ring on Instagram
What was stolen?
As well as her engagement ring, Kardashian said the thieves took her large Louis Vuitton jewellery box, which she said contained “everything I owned”.
In police reports given to the French authorities at about 4.30am on the night of the alleged robbery, Kardashian listed these items as having been stolen:
• Two diamond Cartier bracelets • A gold and diamond Jacob necklace • Diamond earrings by Lauren Schwartz • Yanina earrings • Three gold Jacob necklaces • Little bracelets, jewels and rings • A Lauren Schwartz diamond necklace • A necklace with six little diamonds • A necklace with Saint spelt out in diamonds • A cross-shaped diamond-encrusted Jacob cross • A yellow gold Rolex watch • Two yellow gold rings • An iPhone 6 and a BlackBerry
Police recovered only the diamond-encrusted cross that was dropped by the robbers while leaving.
It’s likely the gold in the haul was melted down and resold, while the diamond engagement ring that is now so associated with the robbery would be far too recognisable to sell on the open market.
Image: Kardashian at the Siran Presentation on the day of the robbery. Pic: Rex Features
What will happen in court?
The hearing will begin at the Court of Appeal of Paris – the largest appeals court in France – on 28 April and is scheduled to last a month.
It will consist of a presiding judge, two professional assessors, and six main jurors.
The hearing involves more than 2,000 documents and there are four civil parties.
Image: Kardashian at the Balenciaga show on the day of the robbery. Pic: Rex Features
Who is being tried?
There were initially 12 defendants in the case, but one person has died and another has a medical condition that prevents their involvement. This means 10 people – nine men and one woman – are standing trial.
Five of them, who were all aged between 60 and 72 at the time of the incident, face armed robbery and kidnapping charges. They are:
• Yunice Abbas • Aomar Ait Khedache • Harminv Ait Khedache • Didier Dubreucq • Marc-Alexandre Boyer
Abbas, 72, has admitted his participation in the robbery. In 2021, he published a book about the robbery, titled I Kidnapped Kim Kardashian. In 2021, a court ruled he would not benefit financially from the book.
Aomar Ait Khedache, 69, known to French crime reporters as “Old Omar”, has also admitted participating in the heist but denies the prosecution’s accusation that he was the ringleader.
The remaining five defendants are charged with complicity in the heist or the unauthorised possession of a weapon. They are:
• Florus Heroui • Gary Mader • Christiane Glotin • François Delaporte • Marc Boyer
Among those, Mader was a VIP greeter who worked for the car company Kardashian used in Paris, and Heroui was a bar manager who allegedly passed on information about Kardashian’s movements.
With many of the accused now ageing and with various serious health conditions, and some having spent time in jail following their arrest, all are currently free under judicial supervision.
If found guilty, those accused of the more serious crimes could face 10 years to life imprisonment.
Image: Kardashian at the Off-White show three days before the robbery. Pic: Rex Features
Will Kardashian give evidence?
Yes.
Lawyer Michael Rhodes said Kardashian has “tremendous appreciation and admiration for the French judicial system” and “wishes for the trial to proceed in an orderly fashion in accordance with French law and with respect for all parties to the case”.
A trainee lawyer herself, Kardashian has become a high-profile criminal justice advocate in the US in recent years.
Image: (R-L) Kanye West, Kim Kardashian, Kourtney Kardashian, Kris Jenner in the front row three days before the robbery. Pic: Rex Features
Why has it taken so long to come to court?
There was initially a manhunt after the robbery, with French police under pressure to prove that Paris’s security was not in question.
Just the year before in 2015, the capital had been shaken by terrorist attacks by Islamic militants, in which 130 people were killed, including 90 at a music event at the Bataclan theatre.
French police initially arrested 17 people in the Kardashian case in January 2017 – three months after the robbery – assisted by DNA traces found on plastic bands used to tie her wrists. Twelve people were later charged.
It was ordered to be sent to trial in 2021 – at a time when limited court proceedings were happening due to multiple COVID lockdowns, and France was holding its largest ever criminal trial over the November 2015 terror attacks.
Image: Kardashian at the Givenchy show on the day of the robbery. Pic: Rex Features
What has Kardashian said about the incident?
Kardashian has described the robbery as a “life-changing” moment. She took three weeks away from filming her reality TV show Keeping Up With the Kardashians, and took a three-month break from social media.
In a March 2017 episode titled Paris, Kardashian first spoke publicly about her ordeal.
She described first hearing a noise in her apartment, and calling out, thinking it was her sister and assistant: “At that moment when there wasn’t an answer, my heart started to get really tense. Like, you know, your stomach just kind of like, knots up and you’re like, ‘OK, what’s going on?’ I knew something wasn’t quite right.”
She went on: “They asked for money. I said, ‘I don’t have any money’. They dragged me out to the hallway on top of the stairs. That’s when I saw the gun, clear as day. I was looking at the gun, looking down back at the stairs. I was like, I have a split second in my mind to make this quick decision.
“Either they’re going to shoot me in the back or if I make it [down the stairs] and the elevator does not open in time or the stairs are locked, there’s no way out.”
Three months later, she told a Forbes Power Women’s Summit she had changed her approach to posting on social media: “They had followed my moves on social media, and they knew my every move and what I had.”
She added: “It was definitely a huge, huge, huge lesson for me to not show off some of the things that I have. It was a huge lesson to me to not show off where I go.
“It’s just changed my whole life, but I think for the better.”
Image: West and Kardashian at the Off-White show three days before the robbery. Pic: Rex Features
In October 2020, Kardashian told US interviewer David Letterman she feared she would be raped and murdered during the heist, and that her sister had been at the forefront of her mind during the incident.
Speaking on My Next Guest Needs No Introduction, Kardashian said: “I kept on thinking about Kourtney, I kept on thinking she’s going to come home and I’m going to be dead in the room and she’s going to be traumatised for the rest of her life if she sees me… I thought that was my fate.”
When speaking to French police about the impact the robbery had had on her three months after it, Kardashian said: “I think that my perception of jewellery now is that I am not as attached to it as I used to be. I don’t have the same feeling about it. In fact, I even think that it has become a bit of a burden to have the responsibility of such expensive jewels.
“There is nothing of sentimental value to compare with the act of going home and finding one’s children and one’s family.”
She went on to describe Paris as “not the right place” for her, and didn’t return to the French capital for two years following the robbery.
Kardashian has since said in a 2023 episode of Keeping Up With The Kardashians that she did not purchase any jewellery in the seven years following the robbery, kept no jewellery at her home and only wore items that are either borrowed or fake.
She said the realisation that material items don’t matter has made her “a completely different person in the best way”.