Beth Rigby: There are still battles the PM can win – but he’s already lost the war
Rishi Sunak is a prime minister who has always found it easy to build consensus on the world stage.
But when it comes to his own backyard, this premiership tells a very different story.
PM’s own deputy chair rebels on Rwanda – live updates
With voters, he is struggling to build any sort of coalition, still bumping along 18 or so points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour after 15 months in office, while this week he finds himself battling 60 of his own MPs convinced his flagship Rwanda plan won’t work.
And to hammer home the knock-on effect of that failure to deliver on the small boats promise, new polling by YouGov points to a Tory wipeout worse than in the Blair landslide of 1997, with Mr Sunak’s Conservatives predicated to win just 169 seats, while Labour would win 395, giving Sir Keir a majority of 120 seats.
The message from the Tory right is clear: sort out illegal migration or face electoral oblivion.
To that end, rebel MPs are pressing the prime minister to toughen up his Rwanda bill.
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Calls to ‘strengthen’ Rwanda bill
For now, Number 10 seem to be standing its ground – after all, amendments which the right argues strengthen the bill could provoke a rebellion on the One Nation centrist wing of the party, or even the Rwandan government, which has warned London the bill must stay within international law.
There is going to be a lot of rows, noise, and tension over the coming 48 hours, but even on the rebel side, there is a sense MPs won’t torpedo the entire bill should the government refuse to accept the amendments laid by former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, which aim to tighten the bill around getting planes off the ground in the face of injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights, or asylum seekers being allowed to make individual claims.
As one senior rebel put it to me the other day, it’s one thing to abstain, or vote for rebel amendments, and another to collapse the whole bill entirely.
So far, only Suella Braverman has come out to say she will vote down the bill if it’s not amended.
Read more:
The by-election battles of Sunak’s premiership
Mysterious election poll designed to cause trouble
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PM ‘will not hesitate’ to protect security
The bigger problem for the PM is the rot. Even if he manages to pass the bill, the can is only kicked down the road.
His government will face individual court battles and perhaps a tussle with the court in Strasbourg. He might win in the Commons this week, but if the policy doesn’t work, he’ll face the wrath not just of many of his MPs but many former Conservative voters too.
Last December, after much drama, Mr Sunak headed off a Conservative revolt over his flagship bill, when – despite all the noise – the government won the vote with a majority of 44, with 37 MPs either abstaining or absent and not one voting against.
But even if the prime minister can carry his plan through the Commons this week, the question on all the minds of MPs – amplified by the polling out today – is whether it can even dent Labour’s lead.
As a senior minister lamented to me last December during those Tory rows over Rwanda: “This is the week our hopes of 1992 turned into 1997.”
In other words, even if Mr Sunak can win the battles with his rebel MPs, he has lost the war with a party irreconcilably divided and a public that’s tuned out.
His best hope is that steady progress – on the boats, the economy, NHS waiting lists – can slowly turn the tide.
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Politics
Labour deputy leadership candidate accuses opponent’s team of ‘throwing mud’ and briefing against her
Lucy Powell has accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race in a special episode of Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.
With just days to go until the race is decided, Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby spoke to the two leadership rivals about allegations of leaks, questions of party unity and their political vision.
Ms Powell told Electoral Dysfunction that through the course of the contest, she had “never leaked or briefed”.
But she said of negative stories about her in the media: “I think some of these things have also come from my opponent’s team as well. And I think they need calling out.
“We are two strong women standing in this contest. We’ve both got different things to bring to the job. I’m not going to get into the business of smearing and briefing against Bridget.
“Having us airing our dirty washing, throwing mud – both in this campaign or indeed after this if I get elected as deputy leader – that is not the game that I’m in.”
Ms Powell was responding to a “Labour source” who told the New Statesman last week: “Lucy was sacked from cabinet because she couldn’t be trusted not to brief or leak.”
Ms Powell said she had spoken directly to Ms Phillipson about allegations of briefings “a little bit”.
Bridget Phillipson (l) and Lucy Powell (r) spoke to Sky News’ Beth Rigby in a special Electoral Dysfunction double-header. Pics: Reuters
Phillipson denies leaks
But asked separately if her team had briefed against Ms Powell, Ms Phillipson told Rigby: “Not to my knowledge.”
And Ms Phillipson said she had not spoken “directly” to her opponent about the claims of negative briefings, despite Ms Powell saying the pair had talked about it.
“I don’t know if there’s been any discussion between the teams,” she added.
On the race itself, the education secretary said it would be “destabilising” if Ms Powell is elected, as she is no longer in the cabinet.
“I think there is a risk that comes of airing too much disagreement in public at a time when we need to focus on taking the fight to our opponents.
“I know Lucy would reject that, but I think that is for me a key choice that members are facing.”
She added: “It’s about the principle of having that rule outside of government that risks being the problem. I think I’ll be able to get more done in government.”
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Insider vs outsider
But Ms Powell, who was recently sacked by Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the Commons, said she could “provide a stronger, more independent voice”.
“The party is withering on the vine at the same time, and people have got big jobs in government to do.
“Politics is moving really, really fast. Government is very, very slow. And I think having a full-time political deputy leader right now is the political injection we need.”
The result of the contest will be announced on Saturday 25 October.
The deputy leader has the potential to be a powerful and influential figure as the link between members and the parliamentary Labour Party, and will have a key role in election campaigns. They can’t be sacked by Sir Keir as they have their own mandate.
The contest was triggered by the resignation of Angela Rayner following a row over her tax affairs. She was also the deputy prime minister but this position was filled by David Lammy in a wider cabinet reshuffle.
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