Sam Coates: Tories may well face disaster – but this mysterious election poll is designed to cause trouble
Don’t get distracted by questions over the mystery funder, or the linked but separate disputed analysis over the impact on the Tory vote of Reform UK.
At its heart, YouGov has released an important piece of work which gives that pollster’s version of the state of the British electorate – and seeks to forecast the result in every constituency based on current polling done over Christmas and their electoral models.
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And it’s a disaster for the Tories.
It forecasts a 120-seat majority for Labour – with the Conservatives crashing from 365 seats to 169, and Labour going from 202 to 385.
This is worse than the Tory defeat in 1997.
The Lib Dems would be the third-biggest party once more on 48 seats, and the SNP almost halve their seats to 25.
Senior cabinet Tories would lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt’s Godalming and Ash in Surrey to the Lib Dems (just), Penny Mordaunt losing Portsmouth North, and Johnny Mercer losing Plymouth Moor View.
Even worse, this model already accounts for the idea there’s been a squeeze on the Labour lead in the campaign, implying its share of the vote is at 39.5% – a full five or six percentage points less than most polls at the moment.
The poll is terrific news for Sir Keir Starmer
Controversial tactic at heart of poll’s results
This poll is doing something interesting and controversial which wasn’t done in 2019 – it’s tried to predict where the people who currently tell pollsters they “don’t know” will end up going, using modelling of the behaviour of others.
Some dispute this tactic, questioning whether it’s possible to predict “don’t knows” from people who have decided how to vote, although YouGov stands by it after using it in other recent races.
The poll was commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance and published in The Telegraph, seemingly to make the case that unless the Tories adopt a tougher stance on immigration than Rishi Sunak, the party faces a much tougher time.
That bit of the analysis was not done by YouGov, however, and has been questioned by the pollster, which disputed the assumption everyone opting in the poll for Reform UK would transfer allegiance to the Tories.
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Nobody seems to know who the Conservative Britain Alliance is made up of.
The Telegraph says Tory donors, some suspect the involvement of figures who back Reform UK, and a loophole in the rules governing polling mean there is no obligation on the pollster to tell us.
The intent of the poll is to cause trouble – the results from YouGov were bad enough without the spin of the poll’s mysterious funders.
Labour’s largest union donor, Unite, has voted to suspend Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner over her role in the Birmingham bin strike row.
Members of the trade union, one of the UK’s largest, also “overwhelmingly” voted to “re-examine its relationship” with Labour over the issue.
They said Ms Rayner, who is also housing, communities and local government secretary, Birmingham Council’s leader, John Cotton, and other Labour councillors had been suspended for “bringing the union into disrepute”.
There was confusion over Ms Rayner’s membership of Unite, with her office having said she was no longer a member and resigned months ago and therefore could not be suspended.
But Unite said she was registered as a member. Parliament’s latest register of interests had her down as a member in May.
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The union said an emergency motion was put to members at its policy conference in Brighton on Friday.
Unite is one of the Labour Party’s largest union donors, donating £414,610 in the first quarter of 2025 – the highest amount in that period by a union, company or individual.
The union condemned Birmingham’s Labour council and the government for “attacking the bin workers”.
Mountains of rubbish have been piling up in the city since January after workers first went on strike over changes to their pay, with all-out strike action starting in March. An agreement has still not been made.
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Rat catcher tackling Birmingham’s bins problem
Ms Rayner and the councillors had their membership suspended for “effectively firing and rehiring the workers, who are striking over pay cuts of up to £8,000”, the union added.
‘Missing in action’
General secretary Sharon Graham told Sky News on Saturday morning: “Angela Rayner, who has the power to solve this dispute, has been missing in action, has not been involved, is refusing to come to the table.”
She had earlier said: “Unite is crystal clear, it will call out bad employers regardless of the colour of their rosette.
“Angela Rayner has had every opportunity to intervene and resolve this dispute but has instead backed a rogue council that has peddled lies and smeared its workers fighting huge pay cuts.
“The disgraceful actions of the government and a so-called Labour council, is essentially fire and rehire and makes a joke of the Employment Relations Act promises.
“People up and down the country are asking whose side is the Labour government on and coming up with the answer not workers.”
Piles of rubbish built up around Birmingham because of the strike over pay
Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said the government’s “priority is and always has been the residents of Birmingham”.
He said the decision by Unite workers to go on strike had “caused disruption” to the city.
“We’ve worked to clean up streets and remain in close contact with the council […] as we support its recovery,” he added.
A total of 800 Unite delegates voted on the motion.
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