Sam Coates: Tories may well face disaster – but this mysterious election poll is designed to cause trouble
Don’t get distracted by questions over the mystery funder, or the linked but separate disputed analysis over the impact on the Tory vote of Reform UK.
At its heart, YouGov has released an important piece of work which gives that pollster’s version of the state of the British electorate – and seeks to forecast the result in every constituency based on current polling done over Christmas and their electoral models.
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And it’s a disaster for the Tories.
It forecasts a 120-seat majority for Labour – with the Conservatives crashing from 365 seats to 169, and Labour going from 202 to 385.
This is worse than the Tory defeat in 1997.
The Lib Dems would be the third-biggest party once more on 48 seats, and the SNP almost halve their seats to 25.
Senior cabinet Tories would lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt’s Godalming and Ash in Surrey to the Lib Dems (just), Penny Mordaunt losing Portsmouth North, and Johnny Mercer losing Plymouth Moor View.
Even worse, this model already accounts for the idea there’s been a squeeze on the Labour lead in the campaign, implying its share of the vote is at 39.5% – a full five or six percentage points less than most polls at the moment.
The poll is terrific news for Sir Keir Starmer
Controversial tactic at heart of poll’s results
This poll is doing something interesting and controversial which wasn’t done in 2019 – it’s tried to predict where the people who currently tell pollsters they “don’t know” will end up going, using modelling of the behaviour of others.
Some dispute this tactic, questioning whether it’s possible to predict “don’t knows” from people who have decided how to vote, although YouGov stands by it after using it in other recent races.
The poll was commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance and published in The Telegraph, seemingly to make the case that unless the Tories adopt a tougher stance on immigration than Rishi Sunak, the party faces a much tougher time.
That bit of the analysis was not done by YouGov, however, and has been questioned by the pollster, which disputed the assumption everyone opting in the poll for Reform UK would transfer allegiance to the Tories.
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Nobody seems to know who the Conservative Britain Alliance is made up of.
The Telegraph says Tory donors, some suspect the involvement of figures who back Reform UK, and a loophole in the rules governing polling mean there is no obligation on the pollster to tell us.
The intent of the poll is to cause trouble – the results from YouGov were bad enough without the spin of the poll’s mysterious funders.
Politics
Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child ‘influencers’, senior MP suggests
Laws may need to be strengthened to crack down on the exploitation of child “influencers”, a senior Labour MP has warned.
Chi Onwurah, chair of the science, technology and innovation committee, said parts of the Online Safety Act – passed in October 2023 – may already be “obsolete or inadequate”.
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Experts have raised concerns that there is a lack of provision in industry laws for children who earn money through brand collaborations on social media when compared to child actors and models.
This has led to some children advertising in their underwear on social media, one expert has claimed.
Those working in more traditional entertainment fields are safeguarded by performance laws, which strictly govern the hours a minor can work, the money they earn and who they are accompanied by.
The Child Influencer Project, which has curated the world’s first industry guidelines for the group, has warned of a “large gap in UK law” which is not sufficiently filled by new online safety legislation.
Official portrait of Chi Onwurah.
Pic: UK Parlimeant
The group’s research found that child influencers could be exposed to as many as 20 different risks of harm, including to dignity, identity, family life, education, and their health and safety.
Ms Onwurah told Sky News there needs to be a “much clearer understanding of the nature of child influencers ‘work’ and the legal and regulatory framework around it”.
She said: “The safety and welfare of children are at the heart of the Online Safety Act and rightly so.
“However, as we know in a number of areas the act may already be obsolete or inadequate due to the lack of foresight and rigour of the last government.”
Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for science, innovation and technology, agreed that regulations “need to keep pace with the times”, with child influencers on social media “protected in the same way” as child actors or models.
“Liberal Democrats would welcome steps to strengthen the Online Safety Act on this front,” she added.
‘Something has to be done’
MPs warned in 2022 that the government should “urgently address the gap in UK child labour and performance regulation that is leaving child influencers without protection”.
They asked for new laws on working hours and conditions, a mandate for the protection of the child’s earnings, a right to erasure and to bring child labour arrangements under the oversight of local authorities.
However, Dr Francis Rees, the principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, told Sky News that even after the implementation of the Online Safety Act, “there’s still a lot wanting”.
“Something has to be done to make brands more aware of their own duty of care towards kids in this arena,” she said.
Dr Rees added that achieving performances from children on social media “can involve extremely coercive and disruptive practices”.
“We simply have to do more to protect these children who have very little say or understanding of what is really happening. Most are left without a voice and without a choice.”
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The researcher pointed to one particular instance, in which children were advertising an underwear brand on social media.
She said: “The kids in the company’s own marketing material or their own media campaigns are either pulling up the band of the underwear underneath their clothing, or they’re holding the underwear up while they’re fully clothed.
“But whenever you look at any of the sponsored content produced by families with children – mum, dad, and child are in their underwear.”
Dr Rees said it is “night and day” in terms of how companies are behaving when they have responsibility for the material, versus “the lack of responsibility once they hand it over to parents with kids”.
One of Arizona’s crypto reserve bills has been passed by the House and is now one successful vote away from heading to the governor’s desk for official approval.
Arizona’s Strategic Digital Assets Reserve Bill (SB 1373) was approved on April 17 by the House Committee of the Whole, which involves 60 House members weighing in on the bill before a third and final reading and a full floor vote.
SB 1373 seeks to establish a Digital Assets Strategic Reserve Fund made up of digital assets seized through criminal proceedings to be managed by the state’s treasurer.
Arizona’s treasurer would be permitted to invest up to 10% of the fund’s total monies in any fiscal year in digital assets. The treasurer would also be able to loan the fund’s assets in order to increase returns, provided it doesn’t increase financial risks.
However, a Senate-approved SB 1373 may be set back by Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, who recently pledged to veto all bills until the legislature passes a bill for disability funding.
Hobbs also has a history of vetoing bills before the House and has vetoed 15 bills sent to her desk this week alone.
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SB 1373 has been passing through Arizona’s legislature alongside the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB 1025), which only includes Bitcoin (BTC).
The bill proposes allowing Arizona’s treasury and state retirement system to invest up to 10% of the available funds into Bitcoin.
SB 1025 also passed Arizona’s House Committee of the Whole on April 1 and is awaiting a full floor vote.
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Utah passed Bitcoin legislation on March 7 but scrapped the cornerstone provision establishing the Bitcoin reserve in the final reading.
The Texas Senate passed a Bitcoin reserve bill on March 6, while a similar bill recently passed through New Hampshire’s House.
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Slovenia’s Finance Ministry is considering a possible 25% tax on crypto trading profits for residents in the country under a new draft law now open for public consultation.
The bill proposes to tax traders when they sell their cryptocurrency for fiat or pay for goods and services, but crypto-to-crypto and transfers between wallets owned by the same user will be exempt, Slovenia’s Finance Ministry said in an April 17 statement.
Under the proposed legislation, crypto tax will be aligned with existing tax laws. Slovenia taxpayers will be required to keep a record of all their transactions for annual tax returns. The tax base would be calculated on profits by subtracting the purchase price from the sale price.
In a statement to the Slovenia Times, finance minister Klemen Boštjančič said it’s unreasonable that crypto trading for individuals isn’t currently taxed in the country.
“The goal of taxation of crypto assets is not to generate tax revenue, but we find it illogical and unreasonable that one of the most speculative financial instruments is not taxed at all,” he said in a statement translated from Slovenian.
New tax could stifle crypto in Slovenia, lawmaker says
Jernej Vrtovec, a member of Slovenia’s national assembly and New Slovenia opposition party, slammed the proposal in an April 16 statement to X, arguing it could stifle crypto growth in the country.
“Slovenia has the opportunity to become a crypto-friendly country, but with the government’s proposals, we will miss the train again,” he said in a post also translated from Slovenian.
“With excessive taxation, we will once again see young people and capital fleeing abroad. Taxes should encourage, not stifle.”
The proposal is open to public consultation until May 5. If Slovenian lawmakers pass the bill, it will go into effect on Jan. 1, 2026.
Slovenia introduced a 10% tax on crypto withdrawals and payments in 2023, but capital gains from occasional crypto trading are not taxed, according to the crypto tax platform Token Tax.
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Crypto activity can also currently be exempt from tax if it’s considered a hobby. Business activity, such as mining or staking, is subject to income tax.
A previous bill proposed in April 2022 planned to levy a 5% tax on profits over 10,000 euros ($11,372), but it was never passed into law.
Slovenia issued the first digital sovereign bond in the European Union on July 25 last year. It had a nominal size of 30 million euros ($32.5 million) with a 3.65% coupon and a maturity date of Nov. 25 that year.
The number of crypto users in Slovenia is projected to reach roughly 98,000 in 2025, according to online data platform Statista, with a penetration rate of 4.6% among its population of 2.12 million people. While the projected revenue for the country’s crypto market is slated to hit $2.8 million.
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