Labour faces an even tougher challenge to win the next general election after changes to the UK’s constituency boundaries.
The party was already aiming at a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives, better than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, to secure a majority.
Now, calculations by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News suggest that when the public heads to the ballot box later this year, the target swing will be one of 12.7.
Rallings and Thrasher, who produced equivalent estimates for the 1997 and 2010 boundary reviews, estimated what the 2019 general election result would have been if it had been fought in the new constituencies.
Their findings, which will form the notional starting point for the next contest, increase the Conservative majority from 80 seats to 94. The Conservatives will defend 372 seats, up from 365, while Labour’s tally reduces from 203 to 201 seats.
The other parties to lose seats are the Liberal Democrats who drop from 11 to just 8 seats, matching their lowest total from 2015, and Plaid Cymru, which loses two of its four seats.
Those three Lib Dem losses are among a group of five constituencies to retain the same name but switch to a different party under the estimated results. It means former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron becomes the challenger, as well as the current MP, in Westmorland and Lonsdale.
The increased Conservative advantage makes the hill steeper to climb for Labour.
The key figure is 326 – that is the number of seats needed for a majority.
That means a net loss of 47 seats for the Tories – up from 40 pre-boundary changes – would oust them from Number 10, and a net gain of 125 seats would deliver Labour an overall majority of two.
If voters across the country behaved in the same way, switching from Conservative to Labour, then Buckingham and Bletchley in the South East of England would be the seat necessary to fall to give Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10.
If that happens, Labour would have achieved a record swing of 12.7 – larger than the 10.2 point swing from the Tories that Tony Blair achieved with his landslide victory in 1997, and more than double the swing achieved at any other election since 1945.
A 4.2 point swing to Labour would see the Conservatives lose their overall majority – with the key seat of Wrexham in North Wales being the one Sir Keir would have to take in order to achieve that.
The boundary changes also raise the benchmark for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. That swing is now 8.3 points from Conservative to Labour, rather than 7. The pivotal seat in this scenario is Chelsea and Fulham.
Of course, it will not just be Labour versus Conservatives on the night, and the performance of other parties could play a significant role in who comes out on top.
A key factor for Labour’s success will be in its battles against the SNP in Scotland, as wins here would lower the gains needed from the Tories.
In total, ten of the SNP’s 48 seats have majorities of less than 10%. Labour is second in just two of these – Lothian East and Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.
Those would require a 5 point swing from SNP to Labour. But current polling suggests a swing of 12 points, which could see Labour gain as many as 23 seats from the SNP.
To put that in context, not since the 1950s has Labour formed a government at Westminster with less than 40 of its MPs elected in Scotland. To achieve that under the new boundaries would require a massive 25.1 swing from SNP to Labour.
Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives could also ease Labour’s path to Downing Street. The new estimates mean they start second to the Tories in 85 constituencies, with 40 of those in the South East and a further 25 in the South West of England.
The most marginal of the 85 seats is Carshalton and Wallington in London.
Which MPs are at risk?
Arguably the most high-profile Conservative in Lib Dem sights is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose Godalming and Ash in the South East – if there was a swing of at least 9.6 points to the Lib Dems.
Sir Ed Davey’s party requires smaller swings to defeat the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham (1.2 points) and the health minster Maria Caufield in Lewes (3.7 points).
If Levelling Up Secretary Michal Gove stands in Surrey Heath then a 14.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats would see him lose the seat.
Several former and current Conservative ministers also have a tough task against Labour to stay in parliament.
For example, a swing of just 1.5 points in Chingford and Woodford Green would see former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith lose his notional 1,604 majority to Labour.
If Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker chooses to defend the adjusted Wycombe seat, the 1,494 notional majority would be wiped out by a 1.6 point swing to Labour.
And a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in Chipping Barnet would oust former minister Theresa Villiers, despite her majority of over 4,000 votes.
Even if Labour doesn’t reach the magic 12.7 point swing for a majority, other key Tory figures could fall as a result of a much smaller one, including ex-justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, if he contests Welwyn Hatfield.
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While current polling suggests a sizeable Labour parliamentary group, there are some tight contests for that party’s figures too.
A total of nine seats would fall to the Conservatives on a swing of less than one percentage point from Labour.
A swing of just 1.3 points to the Tories in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley would defeat shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, while a 2.9 point swing would see shadow policing minister Alex Norris lose Nottingham North and Kimberley to the Tories.
Some Labour MPs, including Chris Elmore (Bridgend) and Emma Hardy (Hull West and Hessle), also find themselves challenging in what are now notionally Conservative seats.
All the above is based on estimates and it is impossible to know precisely how these new constituencies voted in 2019. It is also tricky to determine the impact of the decision by the Brexit party not to contest most Conservative seats in 2019.
A full methodology of the notional results estimates used by Rallings and Thrasher can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.
The child who died in a school coach crash in Somerset on Thursday was a 10-year-old boy, Avon and Somerset Police have said.
A specially trained officer is supporting the child’s family, the force said, adding that two children taken to Bristol Royal Hospital for Children by air ambulance remain there as of Friday.
Four children and three adults also remain in hospital in Somerset.
There were between 60 to 70 people on board when the incident happened near Minehead, just before 3pm on Thursday.
The coach was heading to Minehead Middle School when it crashed on the A396 between Wheddon Cross and Timbercombe.
Image: Pic: PA
Police said that 21 people were taken to hospital, including two children who were taken via air ambulance.
Gavin Ellis, chief fire officer for Devon and Somerset, said the coach “overturned onto its roof and slid approximately 20ft down an embankment”.
Rachel Gilmour, MP for Tiverton and Minehead, said the road where it happened is “very difficult to manoeuvre”.
“You have a very difficult crossing at Wheddon Cross, and as you come out to dip down into Timbercombe, the road is really windy and there are very steep dips on either side,” she told Sky’s Anna Botting.
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“You have looked after each [other] in what was a life-changing event, we will get through this together,” they wrote on Facebook.
“I feel so lucky to be your teacher. I am so grateful to my wonderful colleagues during this time who were also fighting to help as many people as we could.”
Maria’s treatment by Greater Manchester Police (GMP) was so shocking the chief constable described it as “undefendable” and yet a year after a high-profile inquiry found she had been “unlawfully” arrested and strip-searched, Maria now has a criminal conviction for the crime the inquiry said she should never have been arrested for.
Warning: This story includes graphic descriptions of strip searches and references to domestic violence.
The Baird Inquiry – named after its lead Dame Vera Baird – into GMP, published a year ago, found that the force made numerous unlawful arrests and unlawful strip searches on vulnerable women. A year on, the review has led to major changes in police processes.
Strip searches for welfare purposes, where the person is deemed at risk of harming themselves, are banned, and the mayor’s office told Sky News only one woman was intimately strip-searched to look for a concealed item by GMP last year.
Women had previously told Sky News the practice was being used by police “as a power trip” or “for the police to get their kicks”.
However, several women who gave evidence to the Baird Inquiry have told Sky News they feel let down and are still fighting for accountability and to get their complaints through the bureaucracy of a painfully slow system.
The case of Maria (not her real name) perhaps best illustrates how despite an inquiry pointing out her “terrible treatment”, she continues to face the consequences of what the police did.
Image: ‘Maria’ said she was treated like a piece of meat by GMP
‘Treated like a piece of meat’
The story begins with an act of poor service. A victim of domestic violence, Maria went to the police to get keys off her arrested partner but was made to wait outside for five-and-a-half hours.
The Baird Inquiry said: “This domestic abuse victim, alone in a strange city, made 14 calls for police to help her.
“She was repeatedly told that someone would contact her, but nobody did. The pattern didn’t change, hour after hour, until eventually she rang, sobbing and angry.”
The police then arrested her for malicious communications, saying she’d sworn at staff on the phone.
Inside the police station, officers strip-searched her because they thought she was concealing a vape. Maria told Sky News she was “treated like a piece of meat”.
The Baird Inquiry says of the demeaning humiliation: “Maria describes being told to take all her clothes off and, when completely naked, to open the lips of her vagina so the police could see inside and to bend over and open her anal area similarly.”
Image: Chief Constable Stephen Watson said the actions towards Maria were ‘inexplicable’
After the inquiry found all this not only “terrible” but “unlawful”, Chief Constable Stephen Watson described the actions of his officers towards Maria as “an inexplicable and undefendable exercise of police power”.
He added: “We’ve done the wrong thing, in the wrong way and we’ve created harm where harm already existed.”
Despite all of this, the charges of malicious communication were not dropped. They hung over Maria since her arrest in May 2023. Then in March this year, magistrates convicted her of the offence, and she was fined.
Dame Vera’s report describes the arrest for malicious communications as “pointless”, “unlawful”, “not in the public interest” and questions whether the officer had taken “a dislike to Maria”. Yet, while Maria gained a criminal record, no officer has been disciplined over her treatment.
A GMP spokesperson said: “The court has tested the evidence for the matter that Maria was arrested for, and we note the outcome by the magistrate. We have a separate investigation into complaints made about the defendant’s arrest and her treatment whilst in police custody.”
The complaint was referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) in August 2023 and Maria was told several months ago the report was completed, but she has not heard anything since.
Image: Dame Vera Baird’s report catalogues the ‘unlawful’ arrest and strip search of various individuals by GMP
‘There’s been no accountability’
Dame Vera’s report also catalogues the “unlawful” arrest and strip search of Dannika Stewart in October 2023 at the same police station. Dannika is still grinding through the police complaints service to get a formal acknowledgement of their failings.
She told Sky News: “Everyone involved in it is still in the same position. There’s been no accountability from the police. We’re still fighting the complaint system, we’re still trying to prove something which has already been proved by an independent inquiry.”
Image: Body cam footage of Dannika Stewart being arrested
Asked if anyone had been disciplined, Chief Constable Watson told Sky News: “There are ongoing investigations into individual failings, but for the most part the Baird review talked about systemic failings of leadership, it talked of failings in policy and failings of systems.
“In some cases, those people who may have misconducted themselves at the level of professional standards have retired. There are no criminal proceedings in respect of any individual.”
He added: “Every single element of the Baird inquiry has been taken on board – every single one of those recommendations has been implemented – we believe ourselves to be at the forefront of practice.”
‘It’s been three years’
Mark Dove who was also found by the inquiry to have been unlawfully arrested three times and twice unlawfully stripped-searched says he’s been in the complaints system for three years now.
He told Sky News: “There have been improvements in that I’m being informed more, but ultimately there’s no timeline. It’s been three years, and I have to keep pushing them. And I’ve not heard of anyone being suspended.”
Image: Mark Dove was found to have been unlawfully arrested three times and unlawfully strip-searched twice
Sophie (not her real name), a domestic violence victim who was also found by the review team to have been unlawfully arrested by GMP, told Sky News that although most of her complaints were eventually upheld they had originally been dismissed and no officer has faced any consequences.
She said: “They put on record that I’d accepted a caution when I hadn’t – and then tried to prosecute me. Why has no one been disciplined? These are people’s lives. I could have lost my job. Where is the accountability?”
Since the Baird Inquiry, every strip search by GMP is now reviewed by a compliance team. GMP also provides all female suspects in custody with dignity packs including sanitary products, and they work with the College of Policing to ensure all officers are trained to recognise and respond to the effects of domestic and sexual trauma on survivors.
Image: Kate Green, deputy mayor for Greater Manchester for policing and crime
The deputy mayor for Greater Manchester for policing and crime, Kate Green, says the lessons of the Baird Inquiry should reach all police forces.
She said: “I would strongly recommend that other forces, if they don’t already follow GMP’s practise in not conducting so-called welfare strip searches, similarly cease to carry out those searches. It’s very difficult to see how a traumatising search can be good for anybody’s welfare, either the officers or the detainees. We’ve managed to do that now for well over a year.”
Ms Green also suggests a national review of the police complaints system.
Deputy Chief Constable Terry Woods, of GMP, said: “Our reformed Professional Standards Directorate (PSD) has increased the quality of complaints handling and improved timeliness.
“Where officers have been found to breach our standards then we have not hesitated to remove them from GMP, with more than 100 officers being dismissed on the chief constable’s watch.
“Out of 14 complaints relating to Dame Vera’s report, four have been completed. Our PSD continues to review and investigate the other complaints.
“We’re committed to being held to account for our use of arrests and our performance in custody.
“By its nature, custody has – and always will be – a challenging environment.
“However, basic provisions and processes must always be met and, while we’re confident our progress is being recognised across policing, we stand ready to act on feedback.”
One child has died after a coach bringing children back from a school trip crashed and overturned near Minehead, Somerset, police have said.
A major incident was declared after the vehicle, which had 60-70 people on board, crashed on the A396 Cutcombe Hill, between Wheddon Cross and Timbercombe, shortly before 3pm on Thursday afternoon.
The coach was heading to Minehead Middle School at the time.
At a news conference on Thursday night, officials confirmed one child died at the scene.
A further 21 patients were taken to hospital, including two children who were transported via air ambulance. “Several” other people were treated at the scene, they added.
Image: A police officer near the scene of the coach crash in Somerset. Pic: PA
“This has been an incredibly challenging scene for all emergency services,” Chief Superintendent Mark Edgington said.
“Today’s events are truly tragic, we know the whole community and wider area will be utterly devastated to learn of this news.”
An investigation into what caused the crash will be carried out, he added.
Gavin Ellis, the chief fire officer for Devon and SomersetFire & Rescue Service, said the coach “overturned onto its roof and slid approximately 20ft down an embankment”.
He praised an off-duty firefighter who was travelling behind the vehicle for helping at the scene, before crews then arrived to carry out rescues “in extremely difficult circumstances”.
“I’m grateful for the tireless effort and actions of the crews in doing everything they could for those who were trapped and as quickly as safely as possible,” he said.
“I’m extremely proud of the efforts that my firefighters took today at this tragic event.”
Eight fire engines were sent to the scene, with two specialist rescue appliances and around 60 fire personnel, Mr Ellis said.
A total of 20 double-crewed ambulances, three air ambulances and two hazardous area response teams were also sent to the scene, a representative for the South Western Ambulance Service said.
Image: Pic: PA
Ch Supt Mark Edgington said: “Many passengers either sustained minor injuries or were physically unharmed and were transferred to a rest centre.
“Work to help them return to Minehead has been taking place throughout the evening.
“An investigation into the cause of this incident will be carried out.”
Minehead Middle School has pupils aged between nine and 14, and is five days away from the end of term.
‘I don’t have words,’ says local MP
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1:40
‘From one mother to another, I feel your pain’
Rachel Gilmour, MP for Tiverton and Minehead, has said the road where the coach crashed is “very difficult to manoeuvre”.
Speaking to Sky News chief presenter Anna Botting, Ms Gilmour said she visited Minehead Middle School recently, where she “met the children and they were full of joy, enthusiasm and were very positive”.
“I know many of their parents,” she said. “I don’t have words.”
Describing the scene, Gilmour continued: “You have a very difficult crossing at Wheddon Cross, and as you come out to dip down into Timbercombe, the road is really windy and there are very steep dips on either side.
“If the coach, as the police are saying, went 20ft off the road, you are literally on a really, really steep bank.”
The MP, whose constituency is partly in Devon and partly in Somerset, said there is a “really, really close community”.
“We will pull together, but it would be crass of me to say to a parent who’s just lost their child that I could make things better, I can’t,” she said.
“All I can say is that from one mother to another, I feel your pain.”
Image: Cutcombe Hill near Minehead, where the accident took place. Pic: Google Maps
Sir Keir Starmer said in a post on X: “There are no adequate words to acknowledge the death of a child. All my thoughts are with their parents, family and friends, and all those affected.
“Thank you to the emergency workers who are responding at pace – I’m being kept up to date on this situation.”
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson wrote: “It is heartbreaking to hear that a child has died and others are seriously injured following the incident in Minehead earlier today.
“My thoughts are with their friends and families, and all those affected by this tragic event.”