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Labour faces an even tougher challenge to win the next general election after changes to the UK’s constituency boundaries.

The party was already aiming at a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives, better than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, to secure a majority.

Now, calculations by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News suggest that when the public heads to the ballot box later this year, the target swing will be one of 12.7.

Rallings and Thrasher, who produced equivalent estimates for the 1997 and 2010 boundary reviews, estimated what the 2019 general election result would have been if it had been fought in the new constituencies.

Their findings, which will form the notional starting point for the next contest, increase the Conservative majority from 80 seats to 94. The Conservatives will defend 372 seats, up from 365, while Labour’s tally reduces from 203 to 201 seats.

The other parties to lose seats are the Liberal Democrats who drop from 11 to just 8 seats, matching their lowest total from 2015, and Plaid Cymru, which loses two of its four seats.

Those three Lib Dem losses are among a group of five constituencies to retain the same name but switch to a different party under the estimated results. It means former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron becomes the challenger, as well as the current MP, in Westmorland and Lonsdale.

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What effect will this have on the election?

The increased Conservative advantage makes the hill steeper to climb for Labour.

The key figure is 326 – that is the number of seats needed for a majority.

That means a net loss of 47 seats for the Tories – up from 40 pre-boundary changes – would oust them from Number 10, and a net gain of 125 seats would deliver Labour an overall majority of two.

If voters across the country behaved in the same way, switching from Conservative to Labour, then Buckingham and Bletchley in the South East of England would be the seat necessary to fall to give Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10.

If that happens, Labour would have achieved a record swing of 12.7 – larger than the 10.2 point swing from the Tories that Tony Blair achieved with his landslide victory in 1997, and more than double the swing achieved at any other election since 1945.

A 4.2 point swing to Labour would see the Conservatives lose their overall majority – with the key seat of Wrexham in North Wales being the one Sir Keir would have to take in order to achieve that.

The boundary changes also raise the benchmark for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. That swing is now 8.3 points from Conservative to Labour, rather than 7. The pivotal seat in this scenario is Chelsea and Fulham.

Read more:
When could the next general election be?

What about the other parties?

Of course, it will not just be Labour versus Conservatives on the night, and the performance of other parties could play a significant role in who comes out on top.

A key factor for Labour’s success will be in its battles against the SNP in Scotland, as wins here would lower the gains needed from the Tories.

In total, ten of the SNP’s 48 seats have majorities of less than 10%. Labour is second in just two of these – Lothian East and Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.

Those would require a 5 point swing from SNP to Labour. But current polling suggests a swing of 12 points, which could see Labour gain as many as 23 seats from the SNP.

To put that in context, not since the 1950s has Labour formed a government at Westminster with less than 40 of its MPs elected in Scotland. To achieve that under the new boundaries would require a massive 25.1 swing from SNP to Labour.

Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives could also ease Labour’s path to Downing Street. The new estimates mean they start second to the Tories in 85 constituencies, with 40 of those in the South East and a further 25 in the South West of England.

The most marginal of the 85 seats is Carshalton and Wallington in London.

Which MPs are at risk?

Arguably the most high-profile Conservative in Lib Dem sights is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose Godalming and Ash in the South East – if there was a swing of at least 9.6 points to the Lib Dems.

Sir Ed Davey’s party requires smaller swings to defeat the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham (1.2 points) and the health minster Maria Caufield in Lewes (3.7 points).

If Levelling Up Secretary Michal Gove stands in Surrey Heath then a 14.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats would see him lose the seat.

Several former and current Conservative ministers also have a tough task against Labour to stay in parliament.

For example, a swing of just 1.5 points in Chingford and Woodford Green would see former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith lose his notional 1,604 majority to Labour.

If Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker chooses to defend the adjusted Wycombe seat, the 1,494 notional majority would be wiped out by a 1.6 point swing to Labour.

And a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in Chipping Barnet would oust former minister Theresa Villiers, despite her majority of over 4,000 votes.

Even if Labour doesn’t reach the magic 12.7 point swing for a majority, other key Tory figures could fall as a result of a much smaller one, including ex-justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, if he contests Welwyn Hatfield.

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While current polling suggests a sizeable Labour parliamentary group, there are some tight contests for that party’s figures too.

A total of nine seats would fall to the Conservatives on a swing of less than one percentage point from Labour.

A swing of just 1.3 points to the Tories in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley would defeat shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, while a 2.9 point swing would see shadow policing minister Alex Norris lose Nottingham North and Kimberley to the Tories.

Some Labour MPs, including Chris Elmore (Bridgend) and Emma Hardy (Hull West and Hessle), also find themselves challenging in what are now notionally Conservative seats.

All the above is based on estimates and it is impossible to know precisely how these new constituencies voted in 2019. It is also tricky to determine the impact of the decision by the Brexit party not to contest most Conservative seats in 2019.

A full methodology of the notional results estimates used by Rallings and Thrasher can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.

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Living beside the UK’s first drug consumption room

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Living beside the UK's first drug consumption room

It’s 8.34am on a Tuesday and Vanessa Paton is taking me on a tour of Glasgow’s east end, where she has lived for almost 50 years.

Half a mile away sits the newly opened taxpayer-funded facility, named The Thistle, where drug addicts can bring their heroin and cocaine, are handed clean needles and invited to inject under NHS medical supervision.

The concept, a UK first, is controversial and costs £2.3m a year.

Authorities believe it provides a safer, cleaner area for users to do their business, away from the dirty, HIV-ridden back alleys of Glasgow city centre.

It opened in January, and around 250 people have used it so far.

But there is a growing feeling among some that a by-product of this bold project is the alleged “war zone” being created in the community around the new building.

Vanessa Paton
Image:
Vanessa Paton

Former council worker Ms Paton is one of an ad-hoc group of furious locals who pick up needles as part of desperate efforts to clear their streets.

She says: “It is getting worse. The new room has appeared, and the problems have escalated with it. It’s a no-go war zone every day and night.

“The area’s becoming a toilet. That is the harsh reality of it.”

A drug den
Image:
A drug den

‘It is disgusting’

Sky News spends the morning being shown areas where it is claimed the issues are getting out of control.

Ms Paton pulls a bloodied, faeces-covered hospital gown out of a bush as we walk along a path behind a row of houses.

We turn the corner to a street where children play and are greeted with syringes filled with blood at our feet, discarded needle packaging and dirty underwear.

Angela Scott
Image:
Angela Scott

Local resident Angela Scott says: “It’s become a lot worse. It’s heightened. I’m scared that if I am picking up my dog dirt am I going to prick a needle.

“Am I going to end up with an infection that a lot of drug addicts tend to have because they are sharing needles? I don’t want to pick up something infectious.”

Adverts installed in known drug dens

Officials have installed a new needle bin in one hotspot in recent days, with posters erected advertising the nearby consumption room.

A needle bin
An advert for The Thistle in a drug den
Image:
A new needle bin and poster for the nearby consumption room

Ms Paton alleges safety steps are being taken at a nearby nursery.

“There is a nursery that actually uses a metal detector in the morning to scan the sandpits before the children go out because of the concern of the needles being in it,” she claims.

This area is known as Calton and has had its troubles with drug taking and crime for many years.

Ms Paton takes us to a tucked-away, overgrown area opposite social housing and a few metres from where a new school is being built. It is a makeshift drug den.

There are hundreds of freshly used needles. It is like a minefield.

A drug den

One needle is stabbed into a large tree, there is even a wooden seat which is covered in drug-taking equipment.

Once again, there is a laminated A4 piece of paper pointing users in the direction of The Thistle.

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A needle stuck into a tree

Ms Paton says: “We picked up 50 needles in one minute last week. If we were to pick up every needle that is here today, we’d be talking hundreds.

“We are struggling to find somewhere safe to stand. There are needles between my legs, you’ve got needles behind your head.

“It’s totally soul-destroying. Nobody living here expected it to be this bad.”

Officials deny it is a new problem

Glasgow City Council told Sky News there had not been an increase in reports despite the community alleging the opposite.

Councillor Allan Casey, who is responsible for drug policy in the city, said: “This has been a long-standing issue and that is one of the main reasons why The Thistle has been placed where it is because there has been decades-long discarded needles in public places.

Responding to claims of increasing problems around the new facility, Mr Casey said: “Those reports don’t back that up.

“The council has not seen a rise in reports of injecting equipment and there has not been an increase in crime reports.”

Scotland is ravaged by drugs. The country has the worst drug death rate in Europe.

Scotland’s first minister John Swinney told Sky News the new drug room required time to “see the impact”.

He said: “The Thistle is a safe consumption facility which is designed to encourage people to come off the use of drugs – that’s its purpose. We’ve got to give that venture time to see the impact.

“We need to engage with the local community… and address any concerns.”

It is understood police have logged no calls about the facility since it opened in January, despite some residents suggesting they have contacted officers with concerns.

Inspector Max Shaw from Police Scotland said: “We are aware of long-standing issues in the area and continue to work closely in partnership to address these concerns.”

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Premier League clubs at risk of legal action over unlicensed casino sponsors

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Premier League clubs at risk of legal action over unlicensed casino sponsors

Casinos sponsoring two Premier League clubs are accepting UK customers without a licence, putting club officers at risk of prosecution, Sky News has learned.

The gambling websites, BC.Game and DEBET, are the matchday shirt sponsors of Leicester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, respectively.

But an investigation by anti-gambling advert campaigners, shared with Sky News, suggests the casinos have continued to accept UK customers – despite this becoming unlawful after they lost their licences to operate in the UK.

DEBET lost its licence on 15 May, while BC.Game lost its licence in December 2024.

Neither club has indicated that they intend to end the sponsorships, despite criticism from campaigners and warnings from the Gambling Commission.

With the end of the 2024/25 season this weekend, both clubs are now half-way through two-year sponsorship deals with the casinos – putting them in a difficult position for next season.

The campaign group Coalition to End Gambling Ads (CEGA) told Sky News it was able to make deposits on both gambling websites, despite the sites having no licence to accept UK customers.

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CEGA also successfully deposited cash on Burnley FC sponsor 96.com. Burnley are due to be promoted to the Premier League next season.

The findings come one week after the Gambling Commission warned five football clubs, including Wolverhampton and Burnley, that their officers “may be liable to prosecution and, if convicted, face a fine, imprisonment or both if they promote unlicensed gambling businesses that transact with consumers in Great Britain”.

The Commission had issued a similar warning to Leicester City in February.

It made clear then that the clubs must either cut ties with the casinos or ensure they are not accessible to UK customers “by any means” – including virtual private networks (VPNs) – software used to hide a user’s real location.

Other than the need to use a VPN, CEGA director Will Prochaska says it “really wasn’t very difficult” to access the sites.

The Gambling Commission declined to be interviewed by Sky News, but said that “where we have evidence that meets the standard for criminal prosecution we will take appropriate action”.

Head of enforcement at the Commission John Pierce previously said the body would “conduct ongoing spot checks as necessary to ensure they are not accessible to consumers in Great Britain by any means”.

Mr Prochaska, however, said the Commission was taking “far too long” to take action.

“Far too many children, far too many football fans, are seeing these adverts every day,” he said. “It’s got to stop.”

Leicester City’s sponsor has had no UK licence for almost six months

The three sites that appear on the matchday shirts of Leicester, Wolves and Burnley were previously licensed by TGP Europe, a company based on the Isle of Man.

On 15 May, TGP Europe surrendered its UK gambling licence to avoid a £3.3m fine, leaving DEBET and 96.com unable to legally accept UK customers.

Leicester City sponsor BC.Game has been unlicensed in the UK since it parted ways with TGP Europe in December 2024 – almost six months ago.

Jamie Vardy celebrating scoring for Leicester City last December.
Pic: PA
Image:
Jamie Vardy celebrating scoring for Leicester City last December.
Pic: PA

Mr Prochaska said he contacted Leicester City on 13 March to alert them that BC.Game was still accepting UK customers.

“In fact, it was one of the easiest for me to gamble on – there were very few checks whatsoever,” he says. “But Leicester don’t seem to have done anything about it, and it’s still on the front of their shirts.”

Leicester City FC did not respond to a request for comment.

Sky News was able to sign up to every single site

Bournemouth, Fulham and Newcastle United are also sponsored by casinos that were formerly licensed by TGP Europe, but have been unlicensed since 15 May.

These casinos (bj88, SBOTOP and FUN88) are no longer able to legally accept UK customers.

However, Sky News was able to use a VPN to sign up to all three casinos, as well as those sponsoring Leicester City, Wolverhampton and Burnley.

On all six websites, Sky was able to access QR codes for making cryptocurrency deposits. Sky News did not attempt to make any deposits.

All six casinos are forbidden by law from accepting UK customers.

Yet Burnley sponsor 96.com allowed Sky News to sign up using a Telegram account registered to a UK phone number.

The other websites all required phone numbers to be entered upon registration, which could be used as an additional layer of security to filter out UK customers.

However, most of the websites did not check whether the phone number provided was genuine.

Only one website, Leicester City sponsor BC.Game, did check.

However, after confirming the phone number’s authenticity, BC.Game allowed registration to proceed – even though Sky News had provided a UK phone number.

Sky News presented these findings to the football clubs concerned, to TGP Europe and to the Gambling Commission, but did not receive any comment.

Anyone concerned about their gambling, or that of a loved one, can visit BeGambleAware.org for free, confidential advice and support, or The National Gambling Helpline is available on 0808 8020 133 and operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Former BBC executive and presenter Alan Yentob dies

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Former BBC executive and presenter Alan Yentob dies

Alan Yentob, the former BBC presenter and executive, has died aged 78.

A statement from his family, shared by the BBC, said Yentob died on Saturday.

His wife Philippa Walker said: “For Jacob, Bella and I, every day with Alan held the promise of something unexpected. Our life was exciting, he was exciting.

“He was curious, funny, annoying, late, and creative in every cell of his body. But more than that, he was the kindest of men and a profoundly moral man. He leaves in his wake a trail of love a mile wide.”

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Yentob joined the BBC as a trainee in 1968 and held a number of positions – including controller of BBC One and BBC Two, director of television, and head of music and art.

He was also the director of BBC drama, entertainment, and children’s TV.

Yentob launched CBBC and CBeebies, and his drama commissions included Pride And Prejudice and Middlemarch.

Alan Yentob with former BBC director general Tony Hall in 2012. Pic: Reuters.
Image:
Alan Yentob (left) with former BBC director general Tony Hall in 2012. Pic: Reuters.

The TV executive was made a Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) by the King in 2024 for services to the arts and media.

In a tribute, the BBC’s director-general Tim Davie said: “Alan Yentob was a towering figure in British broadcasting and the arts. A creative force and a cultural visionary, he shaped decades of programming at the BBC and beyond, with a passion for storytelling and public service that leave a lasting legacy.

“Above all, Alan was a true original. His passion wasn’t performative – it was personal. He believed in the power of culture to enrich, challenge and connect us.”

BBC Radio 4 presenter Amol Rajan described him on Instagram as “such a unique and kind man: an improbable impresario from unlikely origins who became a towering figure in the culture of post-war Britain.

“I commend his spirit to the living.”

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