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Labour faces an even tougher challenge to win the next general election after changes to the UK’s constituency boundaries.

The party was already aiming at a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives, better than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, to secure a majority.

Now, calculations by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News suggest that when the public heads to the ballot box later this year, the target swing will be one of 12.7.

Rallings and Thrasher, who produced equivalent estimates for the 1997 and 2010 boundary reviews, estimated what the 2019 general election result would have been if it had been fought in the new constituencies.

Their findings, which will form the notional starting point for the next contest, increase the Conservative majority from 80 seats to 94. The Conservatives will defend 372 seats, up from 365, while Labour’s tally reduces from 203 to 201 seats.

The other parties to lose seats are the Liberal Democrats who drop from 11 to just 8 seats, matching their lowest total from 2015, and Plaid Cymru, which loses two of its four seats.

Those three Lib Dem losses are among a group of five constituencies to retain the same name but switch to a different party under the estimated results. It means former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron becomes the challenger, as well as the current MP, in Westmorland and Lonsdale.

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What effect will this have on the election?

The increased Conservative advantage makes the hill steeper to climb for Labour.

The key figure is 326 – that is the number of seats needed for a majority.

That means a net loss of 47 seats for the Tories – up from 40 pre-boundary changes – would oust them from Number 10, and a net gain of 125 seats would deliver Labour an overall majority of two.

If voters across the country behaved in the same way, switching from Conservative to Labour, then Buckingham and Bletchley in the South East of England would be the seat necessary to fall to give Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10.

If that happens, Labour would have achieved a record swing of 12.7 – larger than the 10.2 point swing from the Tories that Tony Blair achieved with his landslide victory in 1997, and more than double the swing achieved at any other election since 1945.

A 4.2 point swing to Labour would see the Conservatives lose their overall majority – with the key seat of Wrexham in North Wales being the one Sir Keir would have to take in order to achieve that.

The boundary changes also raise the benchmark for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. That swing is now 8.3 points from Conservative to Labour, rather than 7. The pivotal seat in this scenario is Chelsea and Fulham.

Read more:
When could the next general election be?

What about the other parties?

Of course, it will not just be Labour versus Conservatives on the night, and the performance of other parties could play a significant role in who comes out on top.

A key factor for Labour’s success will be in its battles against the SNP in Scotland, as wins here would lower the gains needed from the Tories.

In total, ten of the SNP’s 48 seats have majorities of less than 10%. Labour is second in just two of these – Lothian East and Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.

Those would require a 5 point swing from SNP to Labour. But current polling suggests a swing of 12 points, which could see Labour gain as many as 23 seats from the SNP.

To put that in context, not since the 1950s has Labour formed a government at Westminster with less than 40 of its MPs elected in Scotland. To achieve that under the new boundaries would require a massive 25.1 swing from SNP to Labour.

Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives could also ease Labour’s path to Downing Street. The new estimates mean they start second to the Tories in 85 constituencies, with 40 of those in the South East and a further 25 in the South West of England.

The most marginal of the 85 seats is Carshalton and Wallington in London.

Which MPs are at risk?

Arguably the most high-profile Conservative in Lib Dem sights is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose Godalming and Ash in the South East – if there was a swing of at least 9.6 points to the Lib Dems.

Sir Ed Davey’s party requires smaller swings to defeat the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham (1.2 points) and the health minster Maria Caufield in Lewes (3.7 points).

If Levelling Up Secretary Michal Gove stands in Surrey Heath then a 14.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats would see him lose the seat.

Several former and current Conservative ministers also have a tough task against Labour to stay in parliament.

For example, a swing of just 1.5 points in Chingford and Woodford Green would see former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith lose his notional 1,604 majority to Labour.

If Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker chooses to defend the adjusted Wycombe seat, the 1,494 notional majority would be wiped out by a 1.6 point swing to Labour.

And a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in Chipping Barnet would oust former minister Theresa Villiers, despite her majority of over 4,000 votes.

Even if Labour doesn’t reach the magic 12.7 point swing for a majority, other key Tory figures could fall as a result of a much smaller one, including ex-justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, if he contests Welwyn Hatfield.

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While current polling suggests a sizeable Labour parliamentary group, there are some tight contests for that party’s figures too.

A total of nine seats would fall to the Conservatives on a swing of less than one percentage point from Labour.

A swing of just 1.3 points to the Tories in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley would defeat shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, while a 2.9 point swing would see shadow policing minister Alex Norris lose Nottingham North and Kimberley to the Tories.

Some Labour MPs, including Chris Elmore (Bridgend) and Emma Hardy (Hull West and Hessle), also find themselves challenging in what are now notionally Conservative seats.

All the above is based on estimates and it is impossible to know precisely how these new constituencies voted in 2019. It is also tricky to determine the impact of the decision by the Brexit party not to contest most Conservative seats in 2019.

A full methodology of the notional results estimates used by Rallings and Thrasher can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.

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British troops deployed to Israel to ‘monitor Gaza ceasefire’ after US request

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British troops deployed to Israel to 'monitor Gaza ceasefire' after US request

Britain has sent a senior commander and a small number of troops to Israel to help international efforts to monitor a fragile Gaza ceasefire following an American request.

John Healey, the defence secretary, revealed the deployment barely a week after Yvette Cooper, the new foreign secretary, said the UK had “no plans” to send soldiers.

The British Major General will work as the deputy to a US commander, who is tasked with running a civil-military coordination centre that is also expected to include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

The ceasefire deal, brokered by Donald Trump, between Hamas and Israel has created the “opportunity for a long-term peace”, Mr Healey said.

Defence Secretary John Healey said Donald Trump had created the conditions for an end to the fighting. Pic: PA
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Defence Secretary John Healey said Donald Trump had created the conditions for an end to the fighting. Pic: PA

“We have specialist experience and skills that we have offered to contribute,” he said, answering questions after delivering a lecture on wider defence issues to business leaders at an event in London on Monday evening.

The defence secretary said: “We can contribute to the monitoring of the ceasefire. That is likely to be led by others.

“We have also, in response to the American request, put a first rate two-star officer into a civilian-military command, as the deputy commander.

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“So Britain will play an anchor role, contribute the specialist experience and skills where we can. We don’t expect to be leading… but we will play our part.”

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Ceasefire in fragile state.

The British officer is being accompanied by a small team of UK military personnel, with expertise in planning.

The United States, for its part, is sending up to 200 troops to Israel. They will not enter Gaza.

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The British contingent will also not be operating inside the strip.

A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “A small number of UK planning officers have embedded in the US led CMCC, Civil Military Coordination Centre, including a 2* deputy commander to ensure that the UK remains integrated into the US led planning efforts for Gaza post-conflict stability.

“The UK continues to work with international partners to support the Gaza ceasefire to see where the UK can best contribute to the peace process.”

Details about the US plans – headed by Central Command – to help facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid as well as logistical and security assistance into the territory emerged after Mr Trump brokered a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel on 10 October.

Gazan mourners pray over the bodies of Palestinians killed by Israeli fire. Pic: AP
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Gazan mourners pray over the bodies of Palestinians killed by Israeli fire. Pic: AP

One official said the new team will help monitor implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the transition to a civilian government in Gaza.

It is separate to a planned international stabilisation force that would deploy into the territory to help secure the peace.

That force is a key part of Mr Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

In a sign of potential problems, though, The New York Times reported on Tuesday that countries that might contribute soldiers to the international force are nervous about putting boots on the ground while Hamas remains an armed group.

The arrival of British troops in Israel comes as the ceasefire deal remains under pressure, with Israel and Hamas accusing each other of breaching its terms.

Israel briefly resumed airstrikes over the weekend after its troops were reported to have come under attack.

Meanwhile, the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza yesterday reported more than 50 deaths in the last 24 hours.

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Senior King aide was head of royal protection when Prince Andrew ‘asked officer to dig up dirt on accuser’

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Senior King aide was head of royal protection when Prince Andrew 'asked officer to dig up dirt on accuser'

A current senior member of the King’s household was the head of royal protection at the time Prince Andrew allegedly asked one of his police officers to dig up dirt on Virginia Guiffre, Sky News has discovered.

Lord Peter Rosslyn, who is now Lord Steward and Personal Secretary to the King and Queen, was head of Royalty and Diplomatic Protection between 2003-2014.

It is not clear if Lord Rosslyn – known at the time as Commander Peter Loughborough – was made aware of Prince Andrew’s request. However, it reportedly happened in 2011 when it’s claimed Andrew wrote in an email that he passed the date of birth and confidential social security number of his accuser, Virginia Guiffre, to one of his close protection team to find out information about her.

Lord Peter Rosslyn arriving at the Duchess of Kent's funeral. Pic: PA
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Lord Peter Rosslyn arriving at the Duchess of Kent’s funeral. Pic: PA

At the weekend, the Metropolitan Police said it was “actively looking into the claims made”.

Sky News approached Lord Rosslyn for comment, which was passed to Buckingham Palace.

A palace spokesperson said: “As you may or may not be aware, Lord Rosslyn works for The Royal Household and thus this issue has been referred to me. However, since this matter relates to his time in service with the Metropolitan Police, they would be the appropriate body to approach with media enquiries of this nature.”

The Met Police had nothing further to add.

Police sources have told Sky News the officer (CPO) involved would have been expected to escalate this request from Andrew to his superiors.

While there may have been other members of senior staff between the CPO and Lord Rosslyn, the request should have been considered serious enough to be referred to the top of the Royalty and Diplomatic Service.

Those with knowledge of the royal household tell us Lord Rosslyn is one of the King’s closest and most trusted members of staff.

His role as Lord Steward involves managing all aspects of the King’s personal affairs, and the non-state business of the monarch.

Who is Lord Peter Rosslyn?

As well as being much respected by Queen Elizabeth II, and affectionately known as her “favourite policeman”, in 2014 Lord Rosslyn was appointed as Master of the Household of the then Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall at Clarence House.

In February 2003, he was made Lord Steward by the King, thereby becoming the “first dignitary of the King’s court” – a sign that the monarch wanted to keep him around.

While Andrew’s alleged attempts to smear Virginia Guiffre would have been morally wrong, he also would have been asking his police officer to put his career on the line.

Any attempt to use police databases to find information on an innocent individual not connected to a crime would have been a sackable offence, and unlawful.

In his statement on Friday, Prince Andrew again stressed that he vehemently denies the allegations against him.

A Buckingham Palace source told Sky News that the recent claims that have emerged are being viewed by the Royal Family with “very serious and grave concern” and “should be examined in the proper and fullest ways”.

Prince Andrew's signature
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Prince Andrew’s signature

Andrew should give evidence to US authorities – minister

The revelation comes as a government minister said Andrew should give evidence to US authorities – and anger grows after it emerged he had been paying “peppercorn rent” for two decades.

On Friday, Andrew announced he was giving up his royal titles, including the Duke of York, after new, damaging reports about his relationship with paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

Passages from the memoir released on Tuesday of the late Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexually assaulting her, provide further details of their alleged encounters.

Prince Andrew has always strenuously denied the allegations.

Business Secretary Peter Kyle said on Tuesday he would “support” Prince Andrew giving evidence to US prosecutors.

He added he would also support any decision by the Met Police to investigate allegations that Prince Andrew used a Met bodyguard to gain information on Giuffre.

It comes as anger continues to grow over Prince Andrew’s housing arrangements.

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‘Victims should be in driver’s seat’

‘Peppercorn rent’

The royal has only paid “peppercorn rent” for more than two decades at his Windsor mansion, according to a National Audit Office report published in 2005.

“Peppercorn rent” is a legal term used in leases to show that rent technically exists, so the lease is valid, but it’s nominal, often literally £1 a year or just a symbolic amount.

In practice, it means the tenant pays no rent.

It also shows he was required to pay a further £7.5m for refurbishments.

A document from the Crown Estate also shows he signed a 75-year lease on the property in 2003.

It reveals he paid £1m for the lease and that since then he has paid “one peppercorn” of rent “if demanded” per year.

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The agreement also contains a clause which states the Crown Estate would have to pay Andrew around £558,000 if he gave up the lease.

Pressure is mounting on him to give up the 30-bedroom mansion.

Senior Tory Robert Jenrick called for Prince Andrew to live privately.

‘He has disgraced himself’

He said: “It’s about time Prince Andrew took himself off to live in private and make his own way in life.

“He has disgraced himself, he has embarrassed the royal family time and again. I don’t see why the taxpayer, frankly, should continue to foot the bill at all. The public are sick of him.”

Virginia Giuffre's posthumous memoir was released today. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Virginia Giuffre’s posthumous memoir was released today. Pic: Reuters

Mr Kyle, however, said that would be a question for King Charles.

But he did say MPs could bring forward a motion to strip Prince Andrew of his remaining titles, adding it would be up to Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle to choose one of these motions for debate.

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Bank tax could hurt households and business lending, UK’s biggest mortgage provider says

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Bank tax could hurt households and business lending, UK's biggest mortgage provider says

The chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group has warned that a tax raid on the banks could harm lending to households and businesses.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News at the government’s regional investment summit, Charlie Nunn urged the chancellor to ignore calls for a windfall tax on commercial banks even though the sector is enjoying record profits.

“If we are going to have the ability and the confidence to continue to lend into the real economy, to help households and businesses invest, we need to make sure that the financial services system and Lloyds Banking Group really remains healthy in that context,” he said.

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Charlie Nunn was appointed Lloyds boss in November 2020. Pic: PA
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Charlie Nunn was appointed Lloyds boss in November 2020. Pic: PA

Britain’s four largest banks – HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest – posted record profits of £45.9bn last year and are on course for another bumper performance this year, thanks to higher interest rates.

Their financial success has raised speculation that the sector could be in the chancellor’s firing line at next month’s budget.

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Rachel Reeves could raise the bank surcharge – a levy on bank profits in addition to corporation tax.

The Conservative government cut the levy from 8% to 3% in 2023. Returning it to 8% could raise £2bn for a chancellor who needs to find anywhere up to £50bn to meet her fiscal rules.

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Chancellor faces tough budget choices

Some have suggested a separate windfall tax, which could raise closer to £8bn.

Mr Nunn said such a move risked undermining the health of a sector which underpins the country’s economic prosperity.

“Obviously, taxes are a matter for the government to look at. But it’s definitely one of the factors that impact our ability to support the real economy in the UK,” he said.

A raid on the banks would cause pain to a sector that is already facing substantial costs because of the car finance scandal.

Lloyds, one of the most exposed lenders, has set aside nearly £2bn to cover potential compensation arising from the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) redress scheme.

The FCA established the scheme to draw a line under the long-running mis-selling scandal, in which lenders failed to disclose commission paid to brokers, meaning many customers ended up paying more than they should have for their car finance.

Under the FCA’s scheme, eligible customers – as many as 14.2 million – could receive an average of £700 each.

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Payouts due after motor finance scandal

There is mounting anger within the industry at the way the scheme, which is going out to consultation, has been set up. Mr Nunn said the proposal was too generous to customers and not proportionate to the harms actually caused to customers.

He did not rule out the possibility of a judicial review but, in the first instance, called for a rethink, warning that the current scheme risks scaring away investors, causing an exodus from the market and driving up the cost and availability of credit.

“When you look at the implication of what’s being proposed by the FCA, it’s going to potentially take 20 years of profitability of the car finance industry. And, what does that mean for invest ability in that industry and for other investors and businesses looking to invest in the UK? There’s real concern that this is going to create an invest ability issue,” he said.

“Our concern is will the industry continue to function? Will it support all customers across the whole of the UK that need finance? Will other investors be looking at this and wondering whether the UK is a place they should invest, if retrospectively we can take away 20 years of profits?”

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