Constituency boundary changes give Keir Starmer a tougher route to Number 10 – find out why with our swingometer
Labour faces an even tougher challenge to win the next general election after changes to the UK’s constituency boundaries.
The party was already aiming at a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives, better than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, to secure a majority.
Now, calculations by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News suggest that when the public heads to the ballot box later this year, the target swing will be one of 12.7.
Rallings and Thrasher, who produced equivalent estimates for the 1997 and 2010 boundary reviews, estimated what the 2019 general election result would have been if it had been fought in the new constituencies.
Their findings, which will form the notional starting point for the next contest, increase the Conservative majority from 80 seats to 94. The Conservatives will defend 372 seats, up from 365, while Labour’s tally reduces from 203 to 201 seats.
The other parties to lose seats are the Liberal Democrats who drop from 11 to just 8 seats, matching their lowest total from 2015, and Plaid Cymru, which loses two of its four seats.
Those three Lib Dem losses are among a group of five constituencies to retain the same name but switch to a different party under the estimated results. It means former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron becomes the challenger, as well as the current MP, in Westmorland and Lonsdale.
Read more: The constituencies and voters Starmer needs to win over to become PM
Postcode search: Find out the new constituency you’re in and how it’s changed
How boundary changes make Keir Starmer’s job even harder – and what he needs to become PM
Boundary changes: How the electoral impact of the new political battlegrounds are calculated
What effect will this have on the election?
The increased Conservative advantage makes the hill steeper to climb for Labour.
The key figure is 326 – that is the number of seats needed for a majority.
That means a net loss of 47 seats for the Tories – up from 40 pre-boundary changes – would oust them from Number 10, and a net gain of 125 seats would deliver Labour an overall majority of two.
If voters across the country behaved in the same way, switching from Conservative to Labour, then Buckingham and Bletchley in the South East of England would be the seat necessary to fall to give Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10.
If that happens, Labour would have achieved a record swing of 12.7 – larger than the 10.2 point swing from the Tories that Tony Blair achieved with his landslide victory in 1997, and more than double the swing achieved at any other election since 1945.
A 4.2 point swing to Labour would see the Conservatives lose their overall majority – with the key seat of Wrexham in North Wales being the one Sir Keir would have to take in order to achieve that.
The boundary changes also raise the benchmark for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. That swing is now 8.3 points from Conservative to Labour, rather than 7. The pivotal seat in this scenario is Chelsea and Fulham.
Read more:
When could the next general election be?
What about the other parties?
Of course, it will not just be Labour versus Conservatives on the night, and the performance of other parties could play a significant role in who comes out on top.
A key factor for Labour’s success will be in its battles against the SNP in Scotland, as wins here would lower the gains needed from the Tories.
In total, ten of the SNP’s 48 seats have majorities of less than 10%. Labour is second in just two of these – Lothian East and Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.
Those would require a 5 point swing from SNP to Labour. But current polling suggests a swing of 12 points, which could see Labour gain as many as 23 seats from the SNP.
To put that in context, not since the 1950s has Labour formed a government at Westminster with less than 40 of its MPs elected in Scotland. To achieve that under the new boundaries would require a massive 25.1 swing from SNP to Labour.
Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives could also ease Labour’s path to Downing Street. The new estimates mean they start second to the Tories in 85 constituencies, with 40 of those in the South East and a further 25 in the South West of England.
The most marginal of the 85 seats is Carshalton and Wallington in London.
Which MPs are at risk?
Arguably the most high-profile Conservative in Lib Dem sights is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose Godalming and Ash in the South East – if there was a swing of at least 9.6 points to the Lib Dems.
Sir Ed Davey’s party requires smaller swings to defeat the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham (1.2 points) and the health minster Maria Caufield in Lewes (3.7 points).
If Levelling Up Secretary Michal Gove stands in Surrey Heath then a 14.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats would see him lose the seat.
Several former and current Conservative ministers also have a tough task against Labour to stay in parliament.
For example, a swing of just 1.5 points in Chingford and Woodford Green would see former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith lose his notional 1,604 majority to Labour.
If Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker chooses to defend the adjusted Wycombe seat, the 1,494 notional majority would be wiped out by a 1.6 point swing to Labour.
And a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in Chipping Barnet would oust former minister Theresa Villiers, despite her majority of over 4,000 votes.
Even if Labour doesn’t reach the magic 12.7 point swing for a majority, other key Tory figures could fall as a result of a much smaller one, including ex-justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, if he contests Welwyn Hatfield.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge
Sky News Monday to Thursday at 7pm.
Watch live on Sky channel 501, Freeview 233, Virgin 602, the Sky News website and app or YouTube.
While current polling suggests a sizeable Labour parliamentary group, there are some tight contests for that party’s figures too.
A total of nine seats would fall to the Conservatives on a swing of less than one percentage point from Labour.
A swing of just 1.3 points to the Tories in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley would defeat shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, while a 2.9 point swing would see shadow policing minister Alex Norris lose Nottingham North and Kimberley to the Tories.
Some Labour MPs, including Chris Elmore (Bridgend) and Emma Hardy (Hull West and Hessle), also find themselves challenging in what are now notionally Conservative seats.
All the above is based on estimates and it is impossible to know precisely how these new constituencies voted in 2019. It is also tricky to determine the impact of the decision by the Brexit party not to contest most Conservative seats in 2019.
A full methodology of the notional results estimates used by Rallings and Thrasher can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.
A teenage girl who was killed after getting out of a police car on the M5 in Somerset has been named.
Tamzin Hall, 17 and from Wellington, was hit by a vehicle that was travelling southbound between junction 24 for Bridgwater and junction 25 for Taunton shortly after 11pm on Monday.
She had exited a police vehicle that had stopped on the northbound side of the motorway while transporting her.
A mandatory referral was made to the Independent Office for Police Conduct, which is now carrying out its own investigation into what happened.
Read more from Sky News:
Who could replace Gary Lineker on Match Of The Day?
How do Labour avoid the Democrats’ fate?
Avon and Somerset Police said: “Our thoughts and sympathies go out to Tamzin’s family for their devastating loss.
“A specially-trained family liaison officer remains in contact with them to keep them updated and to provide support.
“The family have asked for privacy at this difficult time.”
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The police watchdog, the IOPC, has been asked to investigate.
In a statement, director David Ford, said: “This was a truly tragic incident and my thoughts are with Tamzin’s family and friends and everyone affected by the events of that evening.
“We are contacting her family to express our sympathies, explain our role, and set out how our investigation will progress. We will keep them fully updated as our investigation continues.”
Paramedics attended the motorway within minutes of the girl being hit but she was pronounced dead at the scene.
The motorway was closed in both directions while investigations took place. It was fully reopened shortly after 11am on Tuesday, Nationals Highways said.
A survivors group advocating for women allegedly assaulted by Mohamed al Fayed has said it is “grateful another abuser has been unmasked”, after allegations his brother Salah also participated in the abuse.
Justice for Harrods Survivors says it has “credible evidence” suggesting the sexual abuse allegedly perpetrated at Harrods and the billionaire’s properties “was not limited to Mr al Fayed himself”.
The group’s statement comes after three women told BBC News they were sexually assaulted by al Fayed’s brother, Salah.
One woman said she was raped by Mohamed al Fayed while working at Harrods.
Helen, who has waived her right to anonymity, said she then took a job working for his brother as an escape. She alleges she was drugged and sexually assaulted while working at Salah’s home on Park Lane, London.
Two other women have told the BBC they were taken to Monaco and the South of France, where Salah sexually abused them.
Mohamed al Fayed. Pic: AP
The Justice for Harrod Survivors representatives said: “We are proud to support the survivors of Salah Fayed’s abuse and are committed to achieving justice for them, no matter what it takes.”
The group added it “looks forward to the others on whom we have credible evidence – whether abusers themselves or enablers facilitating that abuse – being exposed in due course”.
More from Sky News:
Ex-Fulham captain makes Al Fayed allegation
Timeline of accusations against ex-Harrods boss
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Salah was one of the three Fayed brothers who co-owned Harrods.
The business, which was sold to Qatar Holdings when Mohamed al Fayed retired in 2010, has said it “supports the bravery of these women in coming forward”.
A statement issued by the famous store on Thursday evening continued: “We encourage these survivors to come forward and make their claims to the Harrods scheme, where they can apply for compensation, as well as support from a counselling perspective and through an independent survivor advocate.
“We also hope that they are looking at every appropriate avenue to them in their pursuit of justice, whether that be Harrods, the police or the Fayed family and estate.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Bianca Gascoigne speaks about Al Fayed abuse
The Justice for Harrods Survivors group previously said more than 400 people had contacted them regarding accusations about Mohamed al Fayed, who died last year.
One of those alleged to have been abused is Bianca Gascoigne, the daughter of former England player Paul.
Speaking to Sky News in October, Gascoigne said she was groomed and sexually assaulted by al Fayed when she worked at Harrods as a teenager.
UK
Wes Streeting ‘crossed the line’ by opposing assisted dying in public, says Labour peer Harriet Harman
Wes Streeting “crossed the line” by opposing assisted dying in public and the argument shouldn’t “come down to resources”, a Labour peer has said.
Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Baroness Harriet Harman criticised the health secretary for revealing how he is going to vote on the matter when it comes before parliament later this month.
MPs are being given a free vote, meaning they can side with their conscience and not party lines, so the government is supposed to be staying neutral.
But Mr Streeting has made clear he will vote against legalising assisted dying, citing concerns end-of-life care is not good enough for people to make an informed choice, and that some could feel pressured into the decision to save the NHS money.
He has also ordered a review into the potential costs of changing the law, warning it could come at the expense of other NHS services if implemented.
Baroness Harman said Mr Streeting has “crossed the line in two ways”.
👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈
“He should not have said how he was going to vote, because that breaches neutrality and sends a signal,” she said.
“And secondly… he’s said the problem is that it will cost money to bring in an assisted dying measure, and therefore he will have to cut other services.
“But paradoxically, he also said it would be a slippery slope because people will be forced to bring about their own death in order to save the NHS money. Well, it can’t be doing both things.
“It can’t be both costing the NHS money and saving the NHS money.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Review into assisted dying costs
Baroness Harman said the argument “should not come down to resources” as it is a “huge moral issue” affecting “only a tiny number of people”.
She added that people should not mistake Mr Streeting for being “a kind of proxy for Keir Starmer”.
“The government is genuinely neutral and all of those backbenchers, they can vote whichever way they want,” she added.
Read more on this story:
‘Fix care before assisted dying legislation’
Why assisted dying is controversial – and where it’s already legal
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously expressed support for assisted dying, but it is not clear how he intends to vote on the issue or if he will make his decision public ahead of time.
The cabinet has varying views on the topic, with the likes of Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood siding with Mr Streeting in her opposition but Energy Secretary Ed Miliband being for it.
Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband is said to support the bill. Pic: Reuters
Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has concerns. Pic: Reuters
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill is being championed by Labour backbencher Kim Leadbeater, who wants to give people with six months left to live the choice to end their lives.
Under her proposals, two independent doctors must confirm a patient is eligible for assisted dying and a High Court judge must give their approval.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Labour MP Kim Leadbeater discusses End of Life Bill
The bill will also include punishments of up to 14 years in prison for those who break the law, including coercing someone into ending their own life.
MPs will debate and vote on the legislation on 29 November, in what will be the first Commons vote on assisted dying since 2015, when the proposal was defeated.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports7 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Environment1 year agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway