Labour faces an even tougher challenge to win the next general election after changes to the UK’s constituency boundaries.
The party was already aiming at a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives, better than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, to secure a majority.
Now, calculations by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News suggest that when the public heads to the ballot box later this year, the target swing will be one of 12.7.
Rallings and Thrasher, who produced equivalent estimates for the 1997 and 2010 boundary reviews, estimated what the 2019 general election result would have been if it had been fought in the new constituencies.
Their findings, which will form the notional starting point for the next contest, increase the Conservative majority from 80 seats to 94. The Conservatives will defend 372 seats, up from 365, while Labour’s tally reduces from 203 to 201 seats.
The other parties to lose seats are the Liberal Democrats who drop from 11 to just 8 seats, matching their lowest total from 2015, and Plaid Cymru, which loses two of its four seats.
Those three Lib Dem losses are among a group of five constituencies to retain the same name but switch to a different party under the estimated results. It means former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron becomes the challenger, as well as the current MP, in Westmorland and Lonsdale.
The increased Conservative advantage makes the hill steeper to climb for Labour.
The key figure is 326 – that is the number of seats needed for a majority.
That means a net loss of 47 seats for the Tories – up from 40 pre-boundary changes – would oust them from Number 10, and a net gain of 125 seats would deliver Labour an overall majority of two.
If voters across the country behaved in the same way, switching from Conservative to Labour, then Buckingham and Bletchley in the South East of England would be the seat necessary to fall to give Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10.
If that happens, Labour would have achieved a record swing of 12.7 – larger than the 10.2 point swing from the Tories that Tony Blair achieved with his landslide victory in 1997, and more than double the swing achieved at any other election since 1945.
A 4.2 point swing to Labour would see the Conservatives lose their overall majority – with the key seat of Wrexham in North Wales being the one Sir Keir would have to take in order to achieve that.
The boundary changes also raise the benchmark for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. That swing is now 8.3 points from Conservative to Labour, rather than 7. The pivotal seat in this scenario is Chelsea and Fulham.
Of course, it will not just be Labour versus Conservatives on the night, and the performance of other parties could play a significant role in who comes out on top.
A key factor for Labour’s success will be in its battles against the SNP in Scotland, as wins here would lower the gains needed from the Tories.
In total, ten of the SNP’s 48 seats have majorities of less than 10%. Labour is second in just two of these – Lothian East and Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.
Those would require a 5 point swing from SNP to Labour. But current polling suggests a swing of 12 points, which could see Labour gain as many as 23 seats from the SNP.
To put that in context, not since the 1950s has Labour formed a government at Westminster with less than 40 of its MPs elected in Scotland. To achieve that under the new boundaries would require a massive 25.1 swing from SNP to Labour.
Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives could also ease Labour’s path to Downing Street. The new estimates mean they start second to the Tories in 85 constituencies, with 40 of those in the South East and a further 25 in the South West of England.
The most marginal of the 85 seats is Carshalton and Wallington in London.
Which MPs are at risk?
Arguably the most high-profile Conservative in Lib Dem sights is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose Godalming and Ash in the South East – if there was a swing of at least 9.6 points to the Lib Dems.
Sir Ed Davey’s party requires smaller swings to defeat the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham (1.2 points) and the health minster Maria Caufield in Lewes (3.7 points).
If Levelling Up Secretary Michal Gove stands in Surrey Heath then a 14.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats would see him lose the seat.
Several former and current Conservative ministers also have a tough task against Labour to stay in parliament.
For example, a swing of just 1.5 points in Chingford and Woodford Green would see former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith lose his notional 1,604 majority to Labour.
If Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker chooses to defend the adjusted Wycombe seat, the 1,494 notional majority would be wiped out by a 1.6 point swing to Labour.
And a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in Chipping Barnet would oust former minister Theresa Villiers, despite her majority of over 4,000 votes.
Even if Labour doesn’t reach the magic 12.7 point swing for a majority, other key Tory figures could fall as a result of a much smaller one, including ex-justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, if he contests Welwyn Hatfield.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge
Sky News Monday to Thursday at 7pm.
Watch live on Sky channel 501, Freeview 233, Virgin 602, the Sky News website and app or YouTube.
While current polling suggests a sizeable Labour parliamentary group, there are some tight contests for that party’s figures too.
A total of nine seats would fall to the Conservatives on a swing of less than one percentage point from Labour.
A swing of just 1.3 points to the Tories in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley would defeat shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, while a 2.9 point swing would see shadow policing minister Alex Norris lose Nottingham North and Kimberley to the Tories.
Some Labour MPs, including Chris Elmore (Bridgend) and Emma Hardy (Hull West and Hessle), also find themselves challenging in what are now notionally Conservative seats.
All the above is based on estimates and it is impossible to know precisely how these new constituencies voted in 2019. It is also tricky to determine the impact of the decision by the Brexit party not to contest most Conservative seats in 2019.
A full methodology of the notional results estimates used by Rallings and Thrasher can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.
MPs will today debate emergency laws to save British Steel after the prime minister warned the country’s “economic and national security is on the line”.
Sir Keir Starmer said the future of the company’s Scunthorpe plant – which employs about 3,500 people – “hangs in the balance” after its owner said the cost of running it was unsustainable.
The prime minister said legislation would be passed in one day to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options”.
MPs and Lords are being summoned from their Easter recess to debate the move and will sit from 11am.
The last time parliament was recalled was on 18 August 2021 to debate the situation in Afghanistan.
The government has been considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, the Chinese owner, cancelled future orders for iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running.
More from Politics
The furnaces are the last in the UK capable of making virgin steel.
The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without it, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:31
Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces
In a statement on Friday, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.
“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance. Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”
The prime minister said steel was “part of our national story, part of the pride and heritage of this nation” and “essential for our future”.
He said the emergency law would give the business secretary powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.
This includes the power to direct the company’s board and workforce. It will also ensure it can order the raw materials to keep the furnaces running and ensure staff are paid.
Image: The Scunthorpe plant is the last in the UK that can make virgin steel. Pic: Reuters
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”, while Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the owner had left the government with “no choice”.
Mr Reynolds said Jingye had confirmed plans to close the Scunthorpe furnaces immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment.
The company said it had invested £1.2bn since taking over in 2020, but that the plant is losing £700,000 a day.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:15
What will happen with British Steel?
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government had landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.
She said when she was business secretary, she had negotiated a plan with British Steel “to limit job losses and keep the plant running”.
Ms Badenoch said the government had “bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable”.
She added: “Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government didn’t take similar action there.
The party’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, said: “Parliament is being recalled to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.
“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.”
Veteran cabinet minister Michael Gove has been awarded a peerage in Rishi Sunak’s resignation honours list.
Mr Gove – now editor of The Spectator magazine – was first elected to parliament in 2005 and immediately joined then-Conservative leader David Cameron’s shadow cabinet.
He was appointed education secretary when the party entered government in 2010 and held multiple cabinet posts until the 2024 general election, when he stood down from parliament.
Mr Sunak elevated seven allies to the House of Lords, including former cabinet ministers Mark Harper, Victoria Prentis, Alister Jack, and Simon Hart. Former chief executive of the Conservative Party, Stephen Massey, also becomes a peer, as well as Eleanor Shawcross, former head of the No10 policy unit. He also awarded a number of honours.
It is traditional for prime ministers to award peerages and other gongs upon their resignation from office – with key political allies, donors and staff often rewarded.
An outgoing prime minister can request that the reigning monarch grants peerages, knighthoods, damehoods or other awards in the British honours system to any number of people.
In the case of peerages, the House of Lords Appointments Commission vets the list, and for other honours, the Cabinet Office conducts checks.
More on House Of Lords
Related Topics:
Resignation honours are separate from dissolution honours, which are awarded by the incumbent prime minister and opposition leaders after the dissolution of parliament preceding a general election.
Here are the biggest names given honours by Mr Sunak:
Michael Gove – peerage
Image: Former cabinet minister Michael Gove. Pic: PA
From when the Conservatives returned to government in 2010, Michael Gove spent almost the whole time in a ministerial role.
After reforming the education system, he went on to hold roles like chief whip, environment secretary, justice secretary and housing secretary.
He led the pro-Brexit side of the 2016 referendum alongside Boris Johnson, and famously sunk the latter’s leadership bid with his own.
However, both failed at that juncture, and Mr Gove’s reputation never recovered to allow him another go at the top job.
The debt was repaid when Mr Johnson fired Mr Gove as his administration collapsed in 2022.
Mr Gove returned to government under Rishi Sunak, and ultimately retired from the Commons at the 2024 election.
James Anderson – knighthood
Image: Lancashire bowler James Anderson. Pic: PA
One of England’s most successful cricketers, Jimmy Anderson, has been awarded a knighthood in avid cricket fan Rishi Sunak’s resignation honours list.
He is regarded as one of the greatest bowlers in the history of the sport, and holds the record for the most wickets taken by a fast bowler in Test cricket.
Jeremy Hunt – knighthood
Image: Jeremy Hunt.
Pic: Reuters
A former chancellor and serial runner-up in Tory leadership competitions, Jeremy Hunt was ever present in Conservative cabinets while the party was in government.
He was both foreign secretary and defence secretary before failing to take over the party after Theresa May stood aside.
Following a stint on the backbenches, Mr Hunt returned as chancellor under Liz Truss in a bid to stabilise markets – retaining this position under Rishi Sunak.
Despite persistent speculation he was set to be ditched in favour of Claire Coutinho, Mr Hunt kept his job until the 2024 general election – where he won his seat and now sits as a backbencher.
James Cleverly – knighthood
Image: James Cleverly.
Pic: PA
A former leader of the Conservatives in the London Assembly, James Cleverly entered parliament at the 2015 general election as the MP for Braintree.
In 2018, he was appointed deputy chairman of the party, and in April 2019, was appointed a minister in the Brexit department.
Boris Johnson appointed him as party chairman after taking over the top job, and he took on a succession of junior ministerial posts before becoming education secretary following Mr Johnson’s resignation as prime minister.
Liz Truss appointed him as foreign secretary – a post he held until November 2023 when Rishi Sunak brought back David Cameron for the role, and he took over as home secretary – a post he held until the general election.
Mr Cleverly was one of the lucky cabinet ministers to survive the Labour landslide and retained his seat. But he was less successful in the Conservative Party leadership contest, losing out in the final round of MP voting.
Andrew Mitchell – knighthood
Image: Andrew Mitchell.
Pic: PA
The former deputy foreign secretary has been a fixture in Westminster since 1987, when he was first elected as the MP for Gedling. He was appointed to the government in 1994, but lost his seat in the 1997 Tony Blair landslide.
He returned to parliament in 2001 as the MP for Sutton Coldfield, and took on a number of shadow cabinet and then cabinet roles, culminating in his appointment to the Foreign Office in 2022, before becoming deputy foreign secretary to David Cameron in 2024.
He rose to public prominence in September 2012 when he allegedly swore when a police officer told him to dismount his bicycle and leave Downing Street through the pedestrian gate rather than the main gate. The incident became known as “Plebgate”.
Mel Stride – knighthood
Image: Shadow chancellor Mel Stride.
Pic: PA
One of Rishi Sunak’s closest aides, he chaired his campaign to be Tory leader against Liz Truss and was rewarded with the Work and Pensions brief when his man finally entered Number 10.
He was also a prominent figure in the downfall of Ms Truss as chair of the Treasury select committee – regularly requesting information from the Treasury and Bank of England that highlighted damaging information.
A capable media performer, he was ever present during the general election as he tried unsuccessfully to get Mr Sunak back into office.
Mr Stride kept his seat after the vote, and was rewarded by Kemi Badenoch with a role as shadow chancellor of the exchequer.
Stephen Massey – peerage
Image: Stephen Massey
Described as a “sensible man” by former chancellor George Osborne, Stephen Massey was appointed chief executive of the Conservative Party in November 2022 after Rishi Sunak took over as leader in the coronation leadership contest following the collapse of the Truss government.
Having spent his career as a financial adviser, Mr Sunak probably thought he was a safe pair of hands in which to entrust the leadership of the party machinery as they built their war chest ahead of the general election to come.
The personal donations of £343,000 to the party and £25,000 to Mr Sunak’s leadership campaign also likely made him an attractive candidate for the job.
Has Rishi Sunak previously awarded honours?
Mr Sunak previously granted peerages to former prime minister Theresa May, Sir Graham Brady, the former chairman of the influential Conservative backbench 1922 committee, as well as his right-hand man Liam Booth-Smith on 4 July 2024 – the day of the general election.
He lost the election by a landslide to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, and resigned as prime minister that day. He remains in parliament as the MP for Richmond and Northallerton.
When the sun sets on Scunthorpe this Saturday, the town’s steelworks will likely have a new boss – Jonathan Reynolds.
The law that parliament will almost certainly approve this weekend hands the business secretary the powers to direct staff at British Steel, order raw materials and, crucially, keep the blast furnaces at the plant open.
This is not full nationalisation.
But it is an extraordinary step.
The Chinese firm Jingye will – on paper – remain the owner of British Steel.
But the UK state will insert itself into the corporate set-up to legally override the wishes of the multinational company.
A form of martial law invoked and applied to private enterprise.
Image: A general view shows British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
Political figures in Wales are now questioning why nationalisation wasn’t on the table for this site.
The response from government is that the deal was done by the previous Tory administration and the owners of the South Wales site agreed to the terms.
But there is also a sense that this decision over British Steel is being shaped by the domestic and international political context.
Labour came to power promising to revitalise left-behind communities and inject a sense of pride back into places still reeling from the loss of traditional industry.
With that in mind, it would be politically intolerable to see the UK’s last two blast furnaces closed and thousands of jobs lost in a relatively deprived part of the country.
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel’s Scunthorpe operation
Reform UK’s position of pushing for full and immediate nationalisation is also relevant, given the party is in electoral pursuit of Labour in many parts of the country where decline in manufacturing has been felt most acutely.
The geo-political situation is perhaps more pressing though.
Just look at the strength of the prime minister’s language in his Downing Street address – “our economic and national security are all on the line”.
The government’s reaction to the turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s pronouncements on tariffs and security has been to emphasise the need to increase domestic resilience in both business and defence.
Becoming the only G7 nation unable to produce virgin steel at a time when globalisation appears to be in retreat hardly fits with that narrative.
It would also present serious practical questions about the ability of the UK to produce steel for defence and the broader switch to green energy production.
Then there is the intriguing subplot around US-China trade.
While this decision is separate from discussions with the White House on tariffs, one can imagine how a UK move to wrestle control of a site of national importance from its Chinese owner might go down with a US president currently engaged in a fierce trade war with Beijing.
This is a remarkable step from the government, but it is more a punctuation mark than a full answer.
The tension between manufacturing and decarbonisation remains, as do the challenges presented by a global economy appearing to fragment significantly.
But one thing is for sure.
As a political parable about changes to traditional industry and the challenges of globalisation, the saga of British Steel is hard to beat.