Constituency boundary changes give Keir Starmer a tougher route to Number 10 – find out why with our swingometer

Published

2 years ago

January 16, 2024

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Labour faces an even tougher challenge to win the next general election after changes to the UK’s constituency boundaries.

The party was already aiming at a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives, better than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, to secure a majority.

Now, calculations by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News suggest that when the public heads to the ballot box later this year, the target swing will be one of 12.7.

Rallings and Thrasher, who produced equivalent estimates for the 1997 and 2010 boundary reviews, estimated what the 2019 general election result would have been if it had been fought in the new constituencies.

Their findings, which will form the notional starting point for the next contest, increase the Conservative majority from 80 seats to 94. The Conservatives will defend 372 seats, up from 365, while Labour’s tally reduces from 203 to 201 seats.

The other parties to lose seats are the Liberal Democrats who drop from 11 to just 8 seats, matching their lowest total from 2015, and Plaid Cymru, which loses two of its four seats.

Those three Lib Dem losses are among a group of five constituencies to retain the same name but switch to a different party under the estimated results. It means former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron becomes the challenger, as well as the current MP, in Westmorland and Lonsdale.

What effect will this have on the election?

The increased Conservative advantage makes the hill steeper to climb for Labour.

The key figure is 326 – that is the number of seats needed for a majority.

That means a net loss of 47 seats for the Tories – up from 40 pre-boundary changes – would oust them from Number 10, and a net gain of 125 seats would deliver Labour an overall majority of two.

If voters across the country behaved in the same way, switching from Conservative to Labour, then Buckingham and Bletchley in the South East of England would be the seat necessary to fall to give Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10.

If that happens, Labour would have achieved a record swing of 12.7 – larger than the 10.2 point swing from the Tories that Tony Blair achieved with his landslide victory in 1997, and more than double the swing achieved at any other election since 1945.

A 4.2 point swing to Labour would see the Conservatives lose their overall majority – with the key seat of Wrexham in North Wales being the one Sir Keir would have to take in order to achieve that.

The boundary changes also raise the benchmark for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. That swing is now 8.3 points from Conservative to Labour, rather than 7. The pivotal seat in this scenario is Chelsea and Fulham.

What about the other parties?

Of course, it will not just be Labour versus Conservatives on the night, and the performance of other parties could play a significant role in who comes out on top.

A key factor for Labour’s success will be in its battles against the SNP in Scotland, as wins here would lower the gains needed from the Tories.

In total, ten of the SNP’s 48 seats have majorities of less than 10%. Labour is second in just two of these – Lothian East and Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.

Those would require a 5 point swing from SNP to Labour. But current polling suggests a swing of 12 points, which could see Labour gain as many as 23 seats from the SNP.

To put that in context, not since the 1950s has Labour formed a government at Westminster with less than 40 of its MPs elected in Scotland. To achieve that under the new boundaries would require a massive 25.1 swing from SNP to Labour.

Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives could also ease Labour’s path to Downing Street. The new estimates mean they start second to the Tories in 85 constituencies, with 40 of those in the South East and a further 25 in the South West of England.

The most marginal of the 85 seats is Carshalton and Wallington in London.

Which MPs are at risk?

Arguably the most high-profile Conservative in Lib Dem sights is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose Godalming and Ash in the South East – if there was a swing of at least 9.6 points to the Lib Dems.

Sir Ed Davey’s party requires smaller swings to defeat the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham (1.2 points) and the health minster Maria Caufield in Lewes (3.7 points).

If Levelling Up Secretary Michal Gove stands in Surrey Heath then a 14.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats would see him lose the seat.

Several former and current Conservative ministers also have a tough task against Labour to stay in parliament.

For example, a swing of just 1.5 points in Chingford and Woodford Green would see former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith lose his notional 1,604 majority to Labour.

If Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker chooses to defend the adjusted Wycombe seat, the 1,494 notional majority would be wiped out by a 1.6 point swing to Labour.

And a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in Chipping Barnet would oust former minister Theresa Villiers, despite her majority of over 4,000 votes.

Even if Labour doesn’t reach the magic 12.7 point swing for a majority, other key Tory figures could fall as a result of a much smaller one, including ex-justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, if he contests Welwyn Hatfield.

While current polling suggests a sizeable Labour parliamentary group, there are some tight contests for that party’s figures too.

A total of nine seats would fall to the Conservatives on a swing of less than one percentage point from Labour.

A swing of just 1.3 points to the Tories in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley would defeat shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, while a 2.9 point swing would see shadow policing minister Alex Norris lose Nottingham North and Kimberley to the Tories.

Some Labour MPs, including Chris Elmore (Bridgend) and Emma Hardy (Hull West and Hessle), also find themselves challenging in what are now notionally Conservative seats.

All the above is based on estimates and it is impossible to know precisely how these new constituencies voted in 2019. It is also tricky to determine the impact of the decision by the Brexit party not to contest most Conservative seats in 2019.

A full methodology of the notional results estimates used by Rallings and Thrasher can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.

UK

UK summons Russian ambassador after British Council building hit in Kyiv

Published

4 hours ago

August 28, 2025

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UK summons Russian ambassador after British Council building hit in Kyiv

The Russian ambassador to the UK has been summoned by the Foreign Office following attacks on Kyiv overnight.

It comes after the British Council building in the Ukrainian capital suffered major damage in Russian strikes.

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Foreign Secretary David Lammy confirmed the government had summoned Andrey Kelin in response.

Mr Kelin was seen arriving at the Foreign Office building in Whitehall today.

Mr Lammy posted on X: “Putin’s strikes last night killed civilians, destroyed homes and damaged buildings, including the British Council and EU Delegation in Kyiv.

“We have summoned the Russian Ambassador. The killing and destruction must stop.”

The British Council’s chief executive, Scott McDonald, said their guard for the building was injured but “stable”.

“At the insistence of my amazing colleagues, we will continue operations in Ukraine today wherever possible,” he said.

“Their resilience is awe-inspiring, and I am deeply thankful they are all safe.”

Earlier, Sir Keir Starmer said: “My thoughts are with all those affected by the senseless Russian strikes on Kyiv, which have damaged the British Council building.

“Putin is killing children and civilians, and sabotaging hopes of peace. This bloodshed must end.”

The British Council is an arms-length body from the government, and says its mission is to “support peace and prosperity by building connections, understanding and trust between people in the UK and countries worldwide”.

It facilitates schemes like working, living and learning abroad for British people.

Most of its funding comes from the fees it charges people for its services, but it does also get funding from the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

As well as the attack on the British Council building, Russia also targeted the EU delegation building in the Ukrainian capital overnight.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, told reporters two missiles hit within 50 metres of the site in 20 seconds.

And Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said the bloc was also summoning Russia’s ambassador following the strike.

“No diplomatic mission should ever be a target,” she said.

The attacks came as part of wider strikes on Kyiv, which destroyed homes and buildings and killed at least 15 people and injured 38, according to Ukrainian officials.

Russia has said it targeted military sites and air bases in its large overnight strike on Ukraine – and that it is still interested in negotiations to meet its aims.

“The special military operation continues,” he said, referring to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022.

“You see that strikes on Russian infrastructure facilities are also continuing, and often Russian civilian infrastructure is targeted by the Kyiv regime.”

He added: “At the same time, Russia will maintain its interest in continuing the negotiation process in order to achieve the goals we face through political and diplomatic means.”

Russia’s latest attack on Ukraine has been widely condemned, with Germany’s foreign minister Johann Wadephul saying there must be “consequences”.

“Last night we once again experienced in a terrible way how Russia attacked and bombed Kyiv, civilians died, children died, and the European Union delegation was also attacked,” he told reporters.

“And that cannot remain without consequences.”

Mr Wadephul added that Germany wanted to show it was considering a further response and that any action would be taken jointly by the EU.

A Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office Spokesperson said: “The UK condemns in the strongest terms these outrageous attacks on Ukrainians and the damage done to the British Council and EU Delegation.

“Russia’s increasing attacks on Ukrainian civilians and cities, including Kyiv, are an escalation of the war and deeply irresponsible and are further sabotaging international peace efforts.

“We have made clear to the Russians that such actions will only harden UK and Western resolve to support Ukraine and bring an end to this unjustified war.

“Russia must stop this senseless killing and destruction immediately.”

UK

Former Met Police volunteer guilty of raping and sexually assaulting a child

Published

4 hours ago

August 28, 2025

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Former Met Police volunteer guilty of raping and sexually assaulting a child

A former Metropolitan Police volunteer has been found guilty of raping and sexually assaulting a child.

James Bubb, who now identifies as a woman named Gwyn Samuels, assaulted the victim multiple times when she was between the ages of 12 and 18.

Jurors were told Bubb, who identified as male at the time of the offences, would be referred to by their biological sex when allegations were being discussed throughout the trial.

Bubb met the victim on a video chat site in 2018, when he was around 21 and she was 12 years old. They then met in person for the first time at a Christian festival a few months later, the court was told.

The trial heard Bubb sexually assaulted the girl in public shortly before her 13th birthday, and that he was violent towards the girl when he raped her in her early teens.

In relation to the complainant, Bubb was on Thursday found guilty of one count of raping a child under 13, one count of sexual activity with a child, one count of assault of a child under 13 by penetration, and one count of assault by penetration.

He was found not guilty of one count of rape and one count of sexual activity with a child in relation to that complainant, and found guilty of one count of rape against a second person.

The defendant made no expression as the verdicts were read out, but sobbed with their head in their hands after the foreman finished speaking.

Bubb, who is now 27, started training with the Met in 2020.

The first victim said the defendant spoke “a lot about the powers he had” in his role as a special constable.

The second complainant was a woman Bubb met online while posing as a 16-year-old girl.

They met when the woman had just turned 18, and were in an on-off relationship between January 2018 and February 2023.

She said Bubb used “BDSM and kink as a way of creating control” over her, and that he would “use police training techniques” on her.

“The control, the power he got, it sure as hell wasn’t consensual,” she told police.

Bubb, of Chesham, Buckinghamshire, will be sentenced at a later date.

UK

Prince Harry to return to UK on anniversary of Queen’s death for charity awards

Published

4 hours ago

August 28, 2025

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Prince Harry to return to UK on anniversary of Queen's death for charity awards

Prince Harry will return to the UK on the third anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II’s death next month for a charity awards ceremony.

The Duke of Sussex, 40, will support the WellChild children’s charity on September 8.

Prince Harry, who lives in California with his wife, Meghan Markle, 44, is a long-standing patron of the charity.

The 2025 awards mark three years to the day that Queen Elizabeth II, the duke’s grandmother, died at her home in Balmoral, Aberdeenshire.

‘Their stories remind us of the power of compassion’

Harry said in a statement: “I am always privileged to attend the WellChild Awards and meet the incredible children, families and professionals who inspire us all with their strength and spirit.

“For 20 years, these awards have highlighted the courage of young people living with complex health needs and shone a light on the devoted caregivers – family and professionals – who support them every step of the way.

“Their stories remind us of the power of compassion, connection and community.”

Harry is set to make a speech, present an award to an “inspirational child” aged between four and six and meet and talk with seriously ill children and their families.

He has held the role of the charity’s patron for 17 years and has attended the awards 14 times before.

The charity describes itself as the national children’s charity “making it possible for children and young people with complex medical needs to thrive at home instead of hospital, wherever possible”.

Harry was last seen in the UK in May after losing a long-running battle with the Home Office over changes to his security arrangements.

The visit is likely to fuel speculation that he will meet with his father, the King, and estranged brother, Prince William.