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From Mondeo Man to Worcester Woman – at every general election politicians, pollsters and pundits seek to identify the “key target voter” who will deliver victory.

Of course, the reality is more complex.

Clearly, Tony Blair wasn’t elected in 1997 solely thanks to men who drove Ford Mondeos. Not every woman in Worcester voted for Thatcher, then Blair and Cameron. And sometimes there’s a national wave as the country swings from one party to another.

So, is there a key target voter in 2024 that can save Rishi Sunak from defeat or deliver Sir Keir Starmer a majority?

To answer those questions, we need to consider the characteristics of people who live in the key Conservative/Labour battleground seats. To do this, we use calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Associate Members of Nuffield College, estimating the 2019 election result if it had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

We combine these estimated constituency results with information about their adult population.

If voters switched uniformly from Conservative to Labour in 2024, with others unchanged, then a swing of 12.7 percentage points would see Labour gain the seats needed to win a majority, 117 of these gains coming directly from the Conservatives.

But there are three key groups of constituencies to consider. Those that cost the Tories their majority, those that see Labour become the largest party and the final set that deliver Labour outright victory.

Read more:
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Postcode search: Check your constituency
Why changes make it tougher for Labour to gain power

So, what do we know about who lives in these key battlegrounds?

Crucially, their characteristics change as the seats get less marginal, becoming less working class and deprived and more likely to have a mortgage and be located in the south of England.

A swing of 4.2 would lose Mr Sunak 47 seats and his majority, with Labour gaining 40 of those constituencies.

Three-quarters of these seats are located in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales, and they are more likely to be deprived areas. This is especially true for the most marginal seats in the West Midlands, where the proportion of households living in deprivation is twenty points higher than average.

Voters in these 40 constituencies are more working class and less likely to have a degree than the general population. Support for Leave in the Brexit referendum was also higher.

As a group, they have a similar ethnic minority population to the 16.1% average for England and Wales. However, this varies widely. The most marginal seats in the West Midlands and London have a far higher proportion, while several seats are well below the average. For example, Whitehaven & Workington in the North West has among the lowest ethnic minority population of all the Labour target seats, with just 1.6%.

The overall age profile of these seats is very close to the national average too.

What about those seats that could make Labour the largest party in parliament?

To reach that benchmark Labour needs a swing of 8.3 points which could deliver a further 39 gains.

Again, voters in these areas are less likely to have a degree and showed higher support for Leave than average. But there are differences too. They are less likely to be working class or live in a deprived area than people in the previous set of constituencies, although still more likely than the general population. They are also far less likely to be from an ethnic minority background.

The geography of the seats changes too, which could be one reason for the slight demographic differences. Eight, or one in five, of these constituencies is in Yorkshire & The Humber, with the North West, East Midlands and the South East contributing a further 15 to the total – five each.

The scale of Labour’s majority challenge

For Labour to win a majority on the 12.7 point swing required from the Conservatives then they’d need to appeal to voters in the south of England as well as elsewhere. Less deprived and less working class than other marginal seats, people here are also younger and far more likely to own their home with a mortgage.

It’s clear the scale of Labour’s challenge is such that to secure a majority they need to win the votes of people who voted Conservative in 2019 in different parts of the UK and with different demographic characteristics.

Although winning seats from the SNP in Scotland could reduce the number needed from the Conservatives.

The Conservative/Lib Dem ‘second front’

Similarly, Mr Sunak is fighting on two fronts – and with two opponents. The Lib Dems are also challenging.

While the most marginal seats the Conservatives defend against Labour are in the Midlands, northern England, as well as Wales – the battleground with the Lib Dems is predominantly in the South East and South West of England.

The Lib Dems are second to the Tories in 85 seats. Forty of these are in the South East, a further 25 in the South West.

In contrast to the Conservative/Labour battleground, people in these seats are more likely to have a university degree and own their home either outright or with a mortgage. They are less likely to be working class or live in a deprived area and they are more likely to have backed Remain in the Brexit referendum.

How support for parties has changed since 2019

So which party do these voters prefer? How has their support changed since the last election? And what can that tell us about Mr Sunak’s and Mr Starmer’s prospects of success?

The regular and large sized survey from the British Election Study (BES) allows us to look at how the Conservative lead over Labour has changed with each demographic group since December 2019.

Its latest data, collected in May 2023 suggests people across the country, regardless of demographic group, are deserting the Tories.

The greatest losses have been among the bedrock of the electoral coalition assembled by Boris Johnson.

When he won his majority, the Conservative Party’s largest leads were with people who voted Leave, were aged over 65, in working class jobs or owned their homes outright – many of the key demographics in the current marginal seats.

Labour’s only advantage under Jeremy Corbyn was with university graduates and people from ethnic minority backgrounds, although support varies depending on ethnicity.

By May 2023, Conservative support had fallen in all categories, with the party’s lead over Labour dropping by close to 30 points among Leave supporters, people over 65, homeowners and working class voters. That’s a swing of 15 points.

Notably, the largest fall in support is among mortgage holders. They were clearly unhappy with the Conservative Party as average mortgage rates were rising.

At the same time, Labour has made modest gains with groups where its support was already strong – ethnic minority voters and university graduates.

So, what might be driving this sweeping shift?

The answer might be found in the issues they say matter most and how they think the government is handling them.

In 2019, Brexit dominated the minds of politicians and voters alike. Since then, the political landscape has changed dramatically. By May 2023, the BES survey showed the economy was considered the “most important issue” facing the country by over half voters in every demographic group, especially mortgage holders.

While polling considerably lower by comparison, immigration was the second ranked issue for every group, except university graduates (for whom it is the joint third ranked issue). Around one in seven people said it was their top concern.

Health consistently ranks as the third most important issue among Leave voters, older people, homeowners, working class and low-income voters. Interestingly, mortgage holders were more concerned about the environment than health, though the differences are small compared to the focus on the economy.

This common overriding concern about the economy makes it harder for the Tories to have success targeting other issues.

But it matters most if they think the government isn’t handling those concerns well.

The British Election Study data is clear that they don’t.

Overall, more than two thirds of people asked thought the government was handling the economy and the cost of living badly or very badly. Despite the Conservative Party’s focus on immigration, 70% thought they were handling that badly too.

But the biggest vote of no confidence was on the NHS, often an area of Labour strength, with three quarters of people saying the government was handling that badly or very badly.

But has Labour picked up support on these issues?

The latest monthly YouGov polling tracker is pretty conclusive. It suggests more people think Labour are the party best able to handle almost every key policy topic, except defence and security.

Although most people don’t think either party has the answer.

Will the Conservatives be swept aside in 2024?

At the last general election the Conservatives secured victory by focusing on Brexit and exploiting voter fears of Mr Corbyn.

Since then they’ve lost support most among the core of the coalition they constructed in 2019. The overriding concern for these Leave supporters, older people, those with working class jobs and who own their own homes is the same as all voters – the economy.

And like most people, they think the Tories are handling it badly.

Polling day could still be months away, and much can change in a short time, but the Conservatives risk being swept aside by an electoral tsunami, deserted by former supporters generally and weakened by having to fight on two fronts against Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

See what the demographic make-up of your constituency is and how it’s changed with our postcode lookup:


Methodology

Estimates for nominal 2019 election results for the new boundaries have been compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on behalf of Sky News, BBC News, ITV News and the Press Association.

A full methodology of the notional results estimates can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates walks us through the data and what it will mean for voters and the parties’ seats in the Commons

For the purposes of this analysis Labour’s key target seats have been defined as the new boundary Conservative defences which are notionally won by Labour in England and Wales on up to a 12.7 uniform national vote swing from Conservatives to Labour, of which there are 117.

Liberal Democrat key target seats have been defined as the new boundary Conservative defences in which they would notionally have placed second in the 2019 election, of which there are 85.

Voting intention and voter attitudes data is from the British Election Study December 2019 and May 2023. Data on party issue handling is from YouGov.

Demographics data for England and Wales is from the Office for National Statistics Census 2021; looking at residents who were adults at the time of the Census only. Indicators on housing tenure are based on households not residents.

Census data on National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SeC) has been used to map residents’ occupations to ABC1/C2DE measures of social grade. NS-SeC levels 8-14 have been classed as C2DE/working class occupations. Full time students have been excluded from workings.

Area deprivation estimates are based on House of Commons Library research using the English Indices of Deprivation 2019, with highly deprived areas classed as those which are among the 10% most deprived in England. The percentage of highly deprived areas in a constituency is the share of Lower Super Output Areas within it which are in the highly deprived group.

And 2016 EU referendum results for both old and new constituency boundaries are from estimates by Professor Chris Hanretty.

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Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

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Bitcoin treasury firms driving 0T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Bitcoin treasury firms driving 0T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Investment firms with Bitcoin-focused treasuries are front-running global Bitcoin adoption, which may see the world’s first cryptocurrency soar to a $200 trillion market capitalization in the coming decade.

Institutions and governments worldwide are starting to recognize the unique monetary properties of Bitcoin (BTC), according to Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream and the inventor of Hashcash.

“$MSTR and other treasury companies are an arbitrage of the dislocation between the bitcoin future and todays fiat world,” Back wrote in an April 26 X post.

“A sustainable and scalable $100-$200 trillion trade front-running hyperbitcoinization. scalable enough for most big listed companies to move to btc treasury,” he added.

Hyperbitcoinization refers to the theoretical future where Bitcoin soars to become the largest global currency, replacing fiat money due to its inflationary economics and growing distrust in the legacy financial system.

Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back
Source: Adam Back

Related: Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Bitcoin’s price outpacing fiat money inflation remains the main driver of global hyperbitcoinization, Back said, adding:

“Some people think treasury strategy is a temporary glitch. i’m saying no it’s a logical and sustainable arbitrage. but not for ever, the driver is bitcoin price going up over 4 year periods faster than interest and inflation.”

Back’s comments come nearly two months after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve from BTC forfeited in government criminal cases.

Related: Serbia’s Prince Filip says Bitcoin is being stifled, expects huge rally

Global firms continue Bitcoin accumulation

Continued Bitcoin investments from the likes of Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, may inspire more global firms to follow suit.

Strategy’s approach is proving to be lucrative, with the firm’s Bitcoin treasury generating over $5.1 billion worth of profit since the beginning of 2025, according to Strategy’s co-founder, Michael Saylor.

Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back
Source: Michael Saylor

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, also known as “Asia’s MicroStrategy,”  adopted a similar strategy, since surpassing 5,000 BTC in total holdings on April 24, Cointelegraph reported.

As Asia’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Metaplanet plans to acquire 21,000 BTC by 2026.

US financial institutions may also have more confidence in adopting Bitcoin after the US Federal Reserve withdrew its 2022 guidance discouraging banks from engaging with cryptocurrency. “Banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin,” Saylor said in response to the guidance withdrawal.

“Banks will now be supervised through normal processes, signaling a more open regulatory environment for digital asset integration,” Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

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US crypto rules like ‘floor is lava’ game without lights — Hester Peirce

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<div>US crypto rules like 'floor is lava' game without lights — Hester Peirce</div>

<div>US crypto rules like 'floor is lava' game without lights — Hester Peirce</div>

SEC Commissioner and head of the crypto task force, Hester Peirce, says US financial firms are navigating crypto in a way that’s similar to playing the children’s game “the floor is lava,” but in the dark.

“It is time that we find a way to end this game. We need to turn on the lights and build some walkways over the lava pit,” Peirce said at the SEC “Know Your Custodian” roundtable event on April 25.

The lava is crypto, says Peirce

Peirce explained that SEC registrants are forced to approach crypto-related activities like “the floor is lava,” where the aim is to jump from one piece of furniture to the next without touching the ground, except here, touching crypto directly is the lava.

“A D.C. version of this game is our regulatory approach to crypto assets, and crypto asset custody in particular,” she said.

Peirce said that, much like in the game, firms wanting to engage with crypto must avoid directly holding it due to unclear regulatory rules. “To engage in crypto-related activities, SEC-registrants have had to hop from one poorly illuminated regulatory space to the next, all while ensuring that they never touch any crypto asset,” Peirce said.

Cryptocurrencies, SEC, United States
Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission

Peirce said that investment advisers are often unsure which crypto assets qualify as securities, what entities count as qualified custodians, and whether “exercising staking or voting rights” could trigger custody violations.

“The twist in the regulatory version is that it is largely played in the dark: burning legal lava and no lamps to illuminate the way.”

Peirce also said that a broker or ATS that cannot custody or manage crypto assets will struggle to facilitate trading, making it unlikely for a “robust market” to develop.

Echoing a similar sentiment, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda said at the event that as more SEC registrants work with crypto assets, it’s essential that they have access to custodial options that meet legal and regulatory requirements.

Uyeda said the agency should consider letting advisers use “state-chartered limited-purpose trust companies” with the authority to hold crypto assets as qualified custodians.

Related: Blockchain needs regulation, scalability to close AI hiring gap

Meanwhile, the recently sworn-in chair of the SEC, Paul Atkins, said that he expected “huge benefits” from blockchain technology through efficiency, risk mitigation, transparency, and cutting costs.

He reiterated that among his goals at the SEC would be to facilitate “clear regulatory rules of the road” for digital assets, hinting that the agency under former chair Gary Gensler had contributed to market and regulatory uncertainty.

“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump’s administration and Congress to establish a rational fit-for-purpose framework for crypto assets,” said Atkins.

Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest, April 19 – 25

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Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat – but disillusionment could be eventual winner

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Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat - but disillusionment could be eventual winner

On the banks of the Mersey, Runcorn and Helsby is a more complicated political picture than the apparent Labour heartland that first presents itself.

Yes, there are industrial and manufacturing areas – an old town that’s fallen victim to out-of-town shopping, and an out-of-town shopping centre that’s fallen victim to Amazon.

But there are also more middle-class new town developments, as well as Tory-facing rural swathes.

Space Café director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded
Image:
Space Cafe director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded

One thing this area does mirror with many across the country, though, is a fed-up electorate with little confidence that politics can work for them.

In the Space Cafe in Runcorn Old Town, its director Marie Moss says many in the region remember a time when a sense of community was more acute.

“People were very proud of their town… and that’s why people get upset and emotional as they remember that,” she says.

It’s this feeling of disenfranchisement and nostalgia-tinged yearning for the past that Reform UK is trading off in its targeting of traditional Labour voters here.

More on Liverpool

Party leader Nigel Farage features heavily on leaflets in these parts, alongside spikey messaging around migration, law and order, and Labour’s record in government so far.

Runcorn 2024 result
Image:
Runcorn 2024 result

Taxi driver Mike Holland hears frequent worries about that record from those riding in the back of his cab.

A Labour voter for decades, he says locals were “made up” at last year’s election result but have been “astonished” since then, with benefit changes a common topic of concern.

“Getting a taxi is two things, it’s either a luxury or a necessity… the necessity people are the disabled people… and a lot of the old dears are so stressed and worried about their disability allowance and whether they are going to get it or not get it,” he says.

But will that mean straight switchers to Reform UK?

Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, or may not vote
Image:
Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is now looking at the Lib Dems and Greens – or may not vote at all

Mike says he agrees with some of what the party is offering but thinks a lot of people are put off by Mr Farage.

He’s now looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, both of whom have put up local politicians as candidates.

Or, Mike says, he may just not vote at all.

It’s in places like Runcorn town that some of the political contradictions within Reform UK reveal themselves more clearly.

Many here say they were brought up being told to never vote Tory.

And yet, Reform, chasing their support, has chosen a former Conservative councillor as its candidate.

It’s no surprise Labour has been trialling attack lines in this campaign, painting Mr Farage’s party as “failed Tories”.

As a response to this, look no further than Reform’s recent nod to the left on industrialisation and public ownership.

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

Read more:
Tough test for Labour after MP quits
MP jailed for late-night brawl
Local elections could re-shape politics

But head 15 minutes south from Runcorn docks, and this by-election campaign changes.

Rural areas like Frodsham and Helsby have, in the past, tended towards the Tories.

The Conservatives, of course, have a candidate in this vote, one who stood in a neighbouring constituency last year.

But Reform is now making a hard play for their supporters in these parts, with a softer message compared to the one being put out in urban areas – an attempt to reassure those anxious about too much political revolution coming to their privet-lined streets.

Labour, meanwhile, is actively trying to mobilise the anti-Farage vote by presenting their candidate – another local councillor – as the only person who can stop Reform.

Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community
Image:
Makeup artist Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community

The pitch here is aimed at voters like Frodsham makeup artist Nadine Tan, who are worried about division and anger in the community.

“I think they need to kind of come together and stop trying to divide everyone,” she says.

But like Mike the taxi driver five miles north, disillusionment could be the eventual winner as Nadine says, despite the “thousands of leaflets” through her door, she still thinks “they all say the same thing”.

One factor that doesn’t seem to be swinging too many votes, though, is the insalubrious circumstances in which the area’s former Labour MP left office.

Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury walks outside Chester Magistrates Court.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Labour MP Mike Amesbury was convicted of punching a man in the street. Pic: Reuters

Mike Amesbury stepped down after being convicted of repeatedly punching a constituent in a late-night brawl outside a pub.

But across the patch, many praise their ex-MP’s local efforts, while also saying he was “very silly” to have acted in the way he did.

That may be putting it mildly.

But it’s hard to find much more agreement ahead of Thursday’s vote.

A constituency still hungry for change, but unsure as to who can deliver it.

Full list of candidates, Runcorn and Helsby by-election:

Catherine Anne Blaiklock – English Democrats
Dan Clarke – Liberal Party
Chris Copeman – Green Party
Paul Duffy – Liberal Democrats
Peter Ford – Workers Party
Howling Laud Hope – Monster Raving Loony Party
Sean Houlston – Conservatives
Jason Philip Hughes – Volt UK
Alan McKie – Independent
Graham Harry Moore – English Constitution Party
Paul Andrew Murphy – Social Democratic Party
Sarah Pochin – Reform UK
Karen Shore – Labour
John Stevens – Rejoin EU
Michael Williams – Independent

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