Fears of prolonged Red Sea shipping crisis fuel inflation fears, as oil, retail cargo delays rise
A screen grab captured from a video shows that cargo ship ‘Galaxy Leader’, co-owned by an Israeli company, being hijacked by Iran-backed Houthis from Yemen in the Red Sea on November 20, 2023. (Photo by Houthis Media Center / Handout /Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
The ripple effects of the Red Sea diversions have expanded into the energy markets and despite repeated attacks on Houthi rebels by the U.S. and allies, shipping experts say the crisis may linger for months and lead to a cargo container supply crunch.
“So far, it almost seems the Houthi attacks are just increasing,” said Bendik Folden Nyttingnes, a shipping analyst at Clarksons Securities.
In an email to clients, Honour Lane Shipping (HLS) said its carrier contacts are “informally” predicting the Red Sea situation will not be solved for at least six months, and could last up to a year. “If so, we expect the soaring freight rates and equipment shortage will continue till the third quarter,” it advised clients.
Earlier this week, Shell confirmed that its oil tankers are temporarily being rerouted around the Red Sea, with its CEO telling the Wall Street Journal that a 5-10% price impact is anticipated in the short-term.
Kpler’s ship tracking director Jean-Charles Gordon estimates that vessels managed or chartered by Shell that are being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope can expect an approximate 10-day delay in their estimated time of arrival.
“As several product tanker operators are avoiding the area following the airstrikes on Friday, the longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope could create a supply shortage of tonnage if the situation continues, which in line could push product tanker rates and stocks higher,” Nyttingnes said.
Torm , Hafnia, Stena Bulk, Hafnia, BP, Frontline, Equinor, Euronav are reportedly among the tanker operators and energy companies choosing to avoid the area following recent warnings. Companies including Tom, Hafnia, Scorpio Tankers and Ardmore would benefit if product tanker rates rose, Nyttingnes said.
These diversions are immediately eating into Egypt’s economy, with its GDP reliant on the Suez Canal, which it owns and operates. The country’s other significant source of revenue, travel, has been decimated because of the Israel-Hamas War.
“If Total Suez Canal tanker transits are over 8 million barrels per day, the losses to the Canal Authority are probably in the range of $5 to $7 million depending on the mix of tankers going through,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
This would be on top of the revenue lost by diverted container vessels which are required to pay between $500,000-$600,000 per transit. According to Kuehn + Nagel, 90% of container ship traffic bound for the Suez Canal has been rerouted.
50% of all Suez traffic could be rerouted
A drop of 40-50% in all vessel Suez crossings as a result of shipping diversions is possible, according to Ami Daniel, co-founder & CEO of Windward, which could create a situation similar to the Covid supply chain crunch for many retailers reliant on global supply chains.
Logistics CEOs have been warning CNBC that the vessel re-routings would result in container crunches. When vessels are late, the containers on those vessels will be late to be processed and reused again for exports.
Goetz Alebrand, head of ocean freight Americas for DHL Global Forwarding, has been warning about an upcoming container crunch for weeks. “More than 4 million containers (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) are bound for longer transit times and will not be ready in the Asia Pacific for the next loading,” he warned. “Considering a two-week delay in either direction it could mean that four million times of containers will be needed to have availability.”
The Asia to Europe route is the most impacted by delays. The ripple effect of this bleeds into the ability of European exports to move out at a fluid rate.
“Europe has felt the most impact from the situation in the Red Sea given it is the major trade route for goods coming from Asia,” said Stephen Schwarz, executive vice president of Wells Fargo global receivables and trade finance. “However, with more ships being diverted and taking alternative, longer routes to Europe, it is starting to impact global capacity. The delay of containers, reduced capacity, and longer transit times all influence global shipping costs which will start to impact U.S. companies the longer the situation in the Red Sea continues.”
Paolo Montrone, global head of trade for Kuehn + Nagel, said the container crunch situation currently unfolding will have a knock-on effect on European exports.
“We anticipate encountering challenges in European terminals as larger ships are expected to arrive outside of their scheduled times. This influx is likely to cause congestion and slowdowns at terminals and ports, subsequently affecting other services such as shipments from Europe to the USA.”
Companies with higher-value items and time-sensitive products are also shifting to the air. “Drawing from past experiences, we foresee an increase in the need for air freight services in the upcoming weeks,” said Montrone.
Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, said he is expecting the container crunch to impact Asia as well.
“Recently carriers reduced the amount of free time on import containers to help expedite the return of equipment back to Asia,” said Baer. “However, given the longer transit times vessels are experiencing, the market may face a shortage of empties across Asia until sailings normalize.”
U.S. retailers say they are prepared
The delays of vessels during the pandemic had some retailers like Home Depot, Costco, and Walmart hiring charters to speed up deliveries.
Evelyn Fornes, Home Depot spokeswoman, said it is working with logistics carriers to find alternate routes to limit any impact from the Red Sea conflict.
“As a regular course of business, we always have plans in place for potential disruptions to any of our partners,” Fornes wrote in an email. “We have a large and diverse supply chain with a number of partners, so we’re accustomed to being flexible and agile when there are disruptions. This type of flexibility is what allowed us to adapt and move the unprecedented volumes during the pandemic, despite significant disruptions.”
“Target remains confident in our ability to get guests the products they want and need,” a Target spokesman said via email. “We leverage production and transportation partners across the globe, and the majority of our freight does not travel through the Suez Canal. For any freight that’s being routed around the Suez Canal, we’re working with shipping partners on alternative paths.”
While retailers are expressing confidence, Tesla, Volvo, and Michelin have recently said they have had to halt manufacturing. Ikea has warned of delays of product, as well as British retailer Next and Crocs.
Costco and Walmart did not respond to requests for comment.
East Coast freight rates soar
While freight rates for U.S. West Coast ports have yet to spike, freight rates for the East Coast and Gulf are up. U.S. East Coast rates are between $5,900-$6,700 for a forty-foot container, and rates for the Gulf are between $6,300-$6,900 a 40-foot container, according to Honour Lane.
To avoid delays and fees, some logistics companies are re-routing to the U.S. West Coast, which could result in higher rates eventually.
“U.S. West Coast space is also getting tight as a substantial number of boxes destined for U.S. East Coast /Gulf destinations are being re-routed through U.S. West Coast hubs,” wrote HLS. “Some big beneficial cargo owners like Walmart have proposed to increase their allocation to the U.S. West Coast and reduce allocation to U.S. East Coast.”
The rates for East Coast and Gulf Coast containers are expected to go up even more. In an advisory to clients Tuesday, MSC alerted of both general rate increases and peak season increases starting February 12 for import containers from the Middle East/Indian Sub-Continent to U.S. East Coast, Gulf Coast and San Juan.
Refrigerated containers called “Reefers” and dry containers, both 20-foot and 40-foot, will be charged a $2,200 peak season charge per container plus a $1,000 general rate increase (GRI) per container. This is on top of whatever container fee the shipper pays.
Some carriers are reportedly planning to deploy more capacity to West Coast for the next contract year, HLS says.
“As the rate difference and transit time difference between U.S. East Coast routings and U.S. West Coast routings are both increasing, the conditions are satisfied for carriers to launch premium services to guarantee space and equipment, which is not strange to us.”
The Port of Los Angeles announced on Tuesday, a total of 747,335 containers were processed in December. This marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year growth of the port. Even with its 2023 year handling of 8,634,497 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, it was around 13% less than in 2022.
Volkswagen CEO Thomas Schäfer has confirmed the company’s plans to develop a full range of “monster” electric hot-hatches, including an all-new electric Golf GTI that will stay true to its iconic namesake with a boxy profile and, of course, front-wheel drive.
After months of conjecture, VW CEO Thomas Schäfer says an all-electric hot-hatch version of the company’s next-generation Golf is, in fact, coming soon. What’s more, Schäfer told the UK’s Auto Express that “it’ll be a monster car.”
And the new Golf GTI? He says it’s just the beginning. “We’ll bring through a whole group of GTI, starting with the ID.2 GTI which is the first one coming electrically,” Schäfer told Phil McNamara. “When we started this journey, [we told the] the development teams, ‘we’ve got to be proud of the GTI of the future,’ and the team’s taking that on.”
Charged up
The upcoming electric Golf GTI’s closest mechanical relative is likely to be the ID.3 GTX, which features a 321 hp electric motor sending power to the rear wheels. Assuming a similar output, that would give the upcoming FWD GTI a staggering 80 more horsepower than today’s 2.0L, turbocharged, ICE-powered GTI.
As a graduate of The Cadillac Allanté School of Front-wheel Drive Performance™, I shudder to think of the kind of torque steer something like a 321 hp FWD hot-hatch would produce – but we’ve come a long way in the last thirty years, and today’s torque-vectoring traction control systems are sure to keep the new FWD VW GTI under control.
In fact, such a system was alluded to back in 2023, when the ID.GTI concept based on the ID.2 (shown, above) was first unveiled:
The way the first electric GTI unleashes its dynamic capabilities is new and exciting. The worlds of the electric ID. GTI Concept and turbocharged Golf GTI meet up when it comes to transmitting the power to the front wheels. A front-axle differential lock—electronically controlled by a Vehicle Dynamics Manager—is used, just like the current generation of the GTI. The Golf GTI and Golf GTI Clubsport were the first Volkswagen models with this traction-control system. With the ID. GTI Concept, an electric Volkswagen now has this intelligent system on board for the first time.
If the big boss is to be believed, the system works. “We’ve driven a few prototypes on the new set-up, and it’s mind blowing,” said Schäfer. “What about the sound? What about the total feel, the handling and so on. It can be done.”
Expect the electric Golf GTI to bow sometime in 2026 with a semi-reasonable price tag, with a hotter, less reasonably priced AWD Golf R version and a smaller, ID.1 based GTI model following a year later.
Electrek’s Take
If the new electric VW Golf GTI doesn’t have plaid Recaro-style sport seats I won’t care, no matter how quick it is, what it costs, how much range it has, or how cool it looks in my neighbor Jeff’s driveway (that dude buys GTIs).
SOURCE: AutoExpress UK; images by pedallingpanda; VW.
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After canceling the upcoming Airflow electric crossover and killing its popular 300 sedan, Chrysler only has one nameplate left in its lineup – but it doesn’t have to be this way. Stellantis already builds a full-size electric sedan that could prove to be a badge-engineered winner.
And, yes – it really should have been the new Chrysler 300. Meet the DS No. 8.
Stellantis’ US brands have had a tough go of the last few years, with Jeep trying and failing to bait luxury buyers willing to part with six-figure sums for a new Grand Wagoneer or generate excitement for the new electric Wagoneer S. The Dodge brand is doing to better with the Charger, a confusing electric muscle car that has, so far, failed to appeal to enthusiasts of any kind. Meanwhile, the lone Chrysler left standing, the Pacifica minivan, made its debut back in 2016. Nearly ten long model years ago.
All the while, Stellantis’ European brands have been forging ahead with desireable EVs – most recently launching the new DS No. 8 high-riding sedan, shown here, back in December … and I’m here to tell you that it really SHOULD have been the new Chrysler 300.
This, but with rich Corinthian leather
With a different grille, a Chrysler badge on the steering wheel, and a few different plastichrome numbers on the back, the DS Automobiles No. 8 could easily be a new-age Chrysler 300. Heck, even the interior’s avant-garde styling and architecturally-inspired stitching could tie-in to the Art Deco-style Chrysler Building in New York, further strengthening the big No. 8’s Chrysler-brand credibility.
Spec-wise, the DS meets the bill, as well. With a 92.7 kWh battery and the standard 230 hp electric motors on board, the electric crossover is good for 750 km (466 miles) of range on the WLTP cycle. With the same battery and a 350 hp dual-motor setup that sacrifices about 40 miles of range for a more sure-footed AWD layout and a 5.4 second 0-60 time that compares nicely to the outgoing Chrysler 300 V8.
The DS offers reasonably rapid 150 kW charging, too, enabling a 10-80% charge (over 300 miles of additional driving range) in less than thirty minutes.
Why it would work
Think of all the reasons the Wagoneer S and Charger Daytona EVs have failed to reach an audience. From the confusing Wagoneer “sub-branding” to the fact that no one was really asking for either an eco-conscious muscle car or a loud EV. On the flip side of that, the 300 is something different.
Since its first iteration seventy years ago, the Chrysler 300 (called the “C-300” back in 1955) has been a forward-looking vehicle. Even the most recent versions, developed off the Mercedes-Benz W210 platform Chrysler inherited while it was part of the “merger of equals” with Mercedes-Benz, looked forward from the malaise-era K-car brand to a bright, Mercedes-infused future.
With the DS No. 8, Chrysler could do it again. It could revive its classic American nameplate on a European-designed platform that wasn’t designed to be a Chrysler, doesn’t look like a Chrysler, and shouldn’t work as a Chrysler, but somehow does. The fact that it could also be the brand’s first successful electric offering in the US would just be a bonus.
Original content from Electrek.
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Powered by tech giant Huawei 5G-Advanced network, a fleet of over 100 Huaneng Ruichi all-electric autonomous haul trucks and heavy equipment assets have been deployed at the Yimin open-pit mine in Inner Mongolia.
With more than 100 units on site, China’s state-backed Huaneng Group officially deployed the world’s largest fleet of unmanned electric mining trucks at the Yimin coal plant in Inner Mongolia this past week. The autonomous trucks use the same Huawei Commercial Vehicle Autonomous Driving Cloud Service (CVADCS) powered by the ame 5G-Advanced (5G-A) network that powers its self-driving car efforts. Huawei says it’s the key to enabling the Yimin mine’s large-scale vehicle-cloud-network synergy.
Huawei is calling the achievement a “world’s first,” saying the new system has improved operator safety at Yimin while setting new benchmarks for AI and autonomous mining.
The autonomous mine project aligns with a broader push by Chinese government and industry to integrate AI and advanced connectivity into traditional industries – an approach we’ve already seen meet with great success in port environments by Hesai and Westwell.
And, if technology like Rocsys’ charging robots take off, these autonomous haul trucks won’t even need anyone to plug them in at the end of their shifts!
For their part, Huaneng Ruichi claims its cabin-less electric offer an industry-leading 90 metric ton rating (that’s about 100 imperial tons) and the ability operate continually in extreme cold temperatures as low as -40° (it’s the same, C or F), while delivering 20% more operational efficiency than a human-driven truck.
The Huawei-issued press release is a bit light on truck specs, but similar 90 tonne electric units claim 350 or 422 kWh LFP battery packs and up to 565 hp from their electric drive motors and some 2,300 Nm (1,700 lb-ft) of tq from 0 rpm.
Huawei executives said the Ruichi trucks reflect the company’s vision for smarter mining operations, with the potential to introduce similar technologies in markets like Africa and Latin America. The 100 asset electric fleet marks the first phase of a plan to deploy 300 autonomous trucks at the Yimin mine by 2028.
Electrek’s Take
From drilling and rigging to heavy haul solutions, companies like Huaneng Group are proving that electric equipment is more than up to the task of moving dirt and pulling stuff out of the ground. At the same time, rising demand for nickel, lithium, and phosphates combined with the natural benefits of electrification are driving the adoption of electric mining machines while a persistent operator shortage is boosting demand for autonomous tech in those machines.
The combined factors listed above are rapidly accelerating the rate at which machines that are already in service are becoming obsolete – and, while some companies are exploring the cost/benefit of converting existing vehicles to electric, the general consensus seems to be that more companies will be be buying more new equipment more often in the years ahead – and more of that equipment will be more and more likely to be autonomous as time goes on.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Huawei, South China Morning Post, and Supply Chain Digital.
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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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